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© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy Technology Perspectives 2015: Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action
David Elzinga, Economic Affairs Officer (Former Senior Energy Analyst and lead author of ETP)
Geneva
May 27, 2015
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Energy Innovation is crucial in making the 2DS possible
Energy innovation has already started delivering, but more is needed
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
6DS
2DS
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Global ESCII trends
Ambitious efforts are needed to reduce the carbon intensity of the global energy sector
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What does this mean for economies?
Decouple economic growth and primary energy use AND reduce CO2 intensity of primary energy
2DS energy system development
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Clean energy deployment is not ramping up fast enough
Evidence shows that despite continued progress in many areas, for the first time none of the technologies are in line with 2DS goals
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What will the energy system look like?
Fossil fuel remains dominant in primary energy use in 2050 in 6DS and 4DS, but falls below 2012 levels in the 2DS
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Digging into the data
A portfolio of technologies is needed – but some will need to target specific sectors
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Having the right information can help stimulate support
Emerging economies is where the bulk of emission will need to come from
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There is no “one-size fits all” solution that can meet all local requirements
National circumstances and resources will drive different technology portfolios and pathways
Regional technology shares in primary energy supply
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From where does the CO2 come… and go?
Indirect emissions linked to electricity use are a major part of the emissions arising from buildings and industry
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Global electricity generation mix – a share reversal
Today fossil fuels dominate electricity generation with a 68% share of the generation mix; by 2050 in the 2DS,
renewables reach an almost similar share of 63%.
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Decarbonising the electricity system
New build generation capacity needs to decarbonise very quickly to meet long term goals
Electricity Sector Carbon Intensity
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Technologies providing the reductions
Electricity savings in the end-use sectors would stabilise power sector emissions at today’s levels– and then need
decarbonise electricity
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Heating and Cooling should not be overlooked.
Heating and cooling in industry and buildings accounts for more than 40% of final energy consumption and 30% of
global CO2 emissions.
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Emissions from heating and cooling can be reduced
In the 6DS, direct and indirect CO2 emissions from heating and cooling continue to grow over time; in the 2DS they
peak by 2015 and then decline
6DS 2DS
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Better understanding innovation can increase confidence in its outcomes
In order to accelerate technological progress in low-carbon technologies, innovation policies should be
systemic
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Energy RD&D funding now targets the right issues, but is not enough
Energy RD&D spending should reflect the importance of energy technology in meeting climate objectives
IEA government Energy RD&D expenditure
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China is taking action to reap the benefits of a strong innovation system
China is poised to become the global leader in R&D spending by 2019.
China’s total R&D spending and OECD projections
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Technology innovation is making renewable energy markets viable
Thanks to 40 years of innovation efforts, solar PV generation is an increasingly cost competitive option
Cost of electricity generated and PV capacity installations in Germany
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Energy efficient technologies are also constantly improving
Fuel economy is improving as policy increasingly drives the deployment of more efficient vehicle technologies
Average new Light-duty vehicle fuel economy evolution by country, 2005 to 2013
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Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time
The right support depends on the maturity of the technology and the degree of market uptake
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Later stage innovation support must focus on market uptake barriers
Wind and solar PV support needs to move from strictly incentives to integrated and well-designed market,
policy and regulatory frameworks
Projections of wind and solar PV generation
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Energy technologies needed to meet long-term goals also show progress
Ratcheting up of investments in CCS demonstrations is yielding progress – but more is needed
CCS Investments
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Early stage support is key to improve future technology competitiveness
Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to make these projections a reality
Projected Levelised Cost of Electricity of coal power generation in the USA
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Innovation is essential for sustainable growth in the industrial sector
The deployment of innovative technologies is crucial to making a 2DS scenario possible
Annual energy-related CO2 Emissions in the industrial sector in the 2DS
6DS
2DS
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Building innovation capacity is key to successful technology deployment
Cooperation between industrial and emerging economies could be a win-win solution