enrollment patterns, time-to-degree, and degree …enrollment patterns, time-to-degree, and degree...

Enrollment Patterns, Time-to-Degree, and Degree Progression for Baccalaureate Degree Recipients at a Large Urban Public University

A Paper Presented at

The 47th Annual Forum of The Association for Institutional Research

June 2 - 6, 2007

By

Lap-Pun T. Lam

Assistant Director Arizona State University

P.O. Box 871203, Tempe, Arizona 85287-1203 480-965-1561

< [email protected] >


Abstract

This study provides a descriptive framework of the attendance patterns and time-to-degree

of baccalaureate degree recipients at a public urban university during the recent ten-year

period. The relationships of attendance patterns to demographic and academic variables of

the study cohort (N=18,252) were analyzed. In addition to the traditional time-to-degree

measurement, the new Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index was adopted as an

alternative approach to examine the students’ progression toward degree completion. This

study revealed that the higher the number of institutions attended, the more lifetime earned

hours accumulated, and the longer the elapsed time or lower the progression index.


Introduction

Since the beginning of the higher education system in the United States, a four-year

academic curriculum structure has been the norm for many baccalaureate degree programs.

Traditionally, students would attend classes full time for four consecutive years within a

single institution until they graduated. Although postsecondary enrollment patterns have

departed from this traditional norm over the years, many theories of student attrition and

research studies exploring factors contributing to student persistence or degree attainment

remain fundamentally based on this traditional mode of postsecondary attendance.

As baccalaureate degree attainment has increasingly become a necessary credential

for employment and career development, families and individuals who participate in higher

education with this goal in mind have a keen interest in knowing how quickly and

effectively a degree can be achieved through various modes of college attendance. The

1991 Student Right-to-know and Campus Security Act requires colleges and universities to

publish their four-year and six-year graduation rates as part of institutional data reporting

responsibility to the federal government. Yet, these publicized rates are based on the

traditional student attendance model—students who began and completed their

baccalaureate degrees at the same institution—and ignore the fact that more and more

students do not graduate from the same institution where they began their postsecondary

education. In reality, attendance patterns involving multi-institutional attendance, moving

from one institution to another, transferring from community college to university or vice

versa, dropping in and out, and stopping out for a variable period of time have become the

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norm for many students. Consequently, the rate of baccalaureate degrees attained in four

years has been declining. A 1996 study on entering freshmen from 365 baccalaureate-

granting institutions revealed that the overall four-year graduation rate was 39.9 percent;

only two in five students were able to complete a bachelor’s degree within four years of

entering college. The study was limited to students continuously enrolled at the institution

of initial entry. Four-year degree attainment rates vary substantially by type of institution:

34.4 percent for students from public universities and 69.2 percent for students from

private universities. These numbers rose slightly to 40.8 percent for students from public

universities and 72.0 percent for students from private universities when nine-year degree

completion rates were tracked (Astin, Tsui and Avalos, 1996).

Because of the nature of most data reporting systems, many existing studies on

student persistence and time-to-degree have used the institution, not the student, as the unit

of analysis. However, one could argue that it is more relevant to examine how students

achieve degree attainment in a multi-institutional attendance setting by tracking individual

students over time. While traditional studies on student success using the institutional

Cohort Survival Analysis technique focus exclusively on degree attainment and time-to-

degree from an institutional perspective, not from a student perspective, the results do not

necessarily reflect the reality of how students progress through to degree attainment. The

importance of opportunity cost for students to complete their degree in a timely manner is

a valid basis with which to measure efficiency. However, an equally valid alternative

approach is to measure the number of earned credits applicable toward the degree awarded

as a percentage of all credits attempted and earned regardless of the time involved in

completing credit requirements for the degree awarded. That may not mean graduation in a

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fixed time frame, but it means graduation with as few unused credits as possible.

Developed by University of Washington, the Graduation Efficiency Index (GEI) is a ratio

of the net earned hours and the total enrolled hours recoded by the university. Net earned

hours refer to the minimum required hours for degree excluding the total transfer hours.

The GEI varies from zero to 100 percent and can be interpreted as the percentage of credit

hours taken at the graduating institution that can be applicable to earn a specific degree

(Gillmore and Hoffman, 1997). However, GEI remains a measurement of graduation

progression of students from the perspective of the degree granting institution, not the

student. In considering the reality that more and more students will attend more than one

institution during the entire undergraduate academic career, it is relevant to examine this

issue more closely.

Clifford Adelman, in his 1999 study “Answer in the Tool Box - Academic

Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor’s Degree Attainment” argued that one should

focus more on the completion rates of students than the graduation rates of colleges. He

utilized data from high school and college transcript records, test scores, and surveys of a

national cohort “High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort” to track students over time.

This longitudinal study followed a national sample of students from the time they were in

the tenth grade in 1980 to roughly age 30 in 1993. Utilizing this approach, Adelman found

that the long-term national system bachelor’s degree completion rate by age 30 for all

students who attended a four-year college at some time was 63 percent; for all those who

started from four-year colleges and earned more than 30 credits from four-year colleges,

the rate exceeded 70 percent; and for those who started in highly selective colleges, the rate

exceeded 90 percent. He also found that more than 60 percent of undergraduates attend

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more than one institution. He argued that the rate of baccalaureate degree attainment

should be determined using a cohort of students who have, at some point in their academic

career, enrolled in at least one bachelor’s degree-granting institution. Because the majority

of undergraduates attend more than one institution and fewer of them take a fixed period of

time to swirl through the system, he concluded that a study of baccalaureate degree

attainment needs to encompass more than one institution and be measured over a much

greater length of time to accurately reflect the changes in students’ postsecondary

attendance patterns.

Statement of the Problem

In response to the needs of tracking students across institutions, statewide student

tracking databases are being established in many states to capture the attendance patterns

and graduation rates of students. However, the functionalities of these systems have been

hampered by technical and legal issues. To date, analyses of federal longitudinal student

survey data have made the most important contributions to the knowledge of

postsecondary attendance patterns and degree attainment of students. However, the

existing studies utilizing data from national surveys have not addressed exclusively in

certain higher education environments that are relevant to specific regional and

institutional experiences.

To this end, this study focused on postsecondary attendance of students in a large

urban public university located in the Southwest. The education environment comprised of

a few public universities, a strong present of public community colleges, and relatively few

baccalaureate degree-granting institutions representing the private sector. The public

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universities and community colleges collectively provide the bulk of postsecondary

educational opportunities for the region. Indeed, community colleges have provided an

indispensable link for many students to be able to participate in postsecondary educational

opportunities and subsequently achieve a baccalaureate degree. In addition to the

traditional transfer pathway between the community colleges and universities, many

students will take full advantage of program offerings to meet their personal needs,

especially for institutions that are in close geographic proximity. Therefore, it is very

common to see a wide variety of enrollment behaviors, such as co-enrollment, reverse

transfer, and returning transfer; and will provide an ideal setup to study issues related to

multi-institutional attendance patterns, time-to-degree and graduation efficiency.

Purpose of the Study

The purpose of this study is to address the aforementioned issues by conducting a

comprehensive longitudinal study of first-time undergraduate degree recipients at a large

urban public university in the Southwest, based on all available enrollment records

throughout the entire undergraduate careers of the students, to examine the pathways to

degree attainment of these individuals.

Borrowing the principle of the existing Graduation Efficiency Index, and taking

into account the lifetime earned hours accumulated from multiple institutions attended by

students, the new Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI), which measures the

ratio of the minimum degree required hours and the lifetime earned hours, is proposed in

this study as an alternative approach to measure graduation progression of students in the

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multi-institutional attendance environment. This study attempts to explore the usefulness

of this new index as well.

To this end, the following study addresses three general issues of interest that are

relevant to the multi-institutional attendance environment.

(1) What are the prevailing postsecondary attendance patterns and enrollment

behavior of baccalaureate degree recipients?

(2) What is the relationship of postsecondary attendance patterns and enrollment

behavior to time-to-degree of baccalaureate degree recipients?

(3) To what extent does the proposed new measure of student graduation

progression, the Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index, differ from the

traditional time-to-degree measurement using elapsed time?

The development of a profile of postsecondary attendance patterns of students will

enable both the universities and the community colleges to more fully understand the

mobility of student flow through the educational pipeline that is built upon strong linkages

between the two sectors.

From a more general perspective, using this university’s experience as an example,

this study attempts to expand knowledge and insight about student flow in the

postsecondary education pipeline and provide administrators, academic planners, as well as

higher education researchers a stronger foundation for a better understanding of how

students navigate through various modes of postsecondary education opportunities toward

baccalaureate degree attainment.

In addition, this study focuses on time-to-degree and graduation progression

measurement from a student’s perspective in support of the evolving trend of studying

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student enrollment behavior in a holistic perspective. The results of the study will add a

new dimension of information in the efficiency measurement of degree attainment by

students.

Review of the Literature

As the national studies of enrollment behavior of undergraduate students indicated

the majority of students did not follow the conventional mode of four-year single

institutional attendance to degree attainment, issues related to student persistence and

attrition have become an important concern. The theories of Spady (1970, 1971), Astin

(1970, 1985), Tinto (1975, 1982, 1987), Bean (1983), Bean and Metzner (1985), and

Dougherty (1987, 1992) have provided the conceptual framework for most studies on

student persistence and degree attainment. Tinto’s Theory of Student Departure has been

used for decades, especially by researchers studying student persistence from an

institutional perspective. With its greater emphasis on environmental factors influencing

students’ attitudes and enrollment behaviors, Bean’s Student Attrition Model and its

nontraditional student version may be more applicable to studies of today’s postsecondary

population who are more likely to take less traditional paths to a baccalaureate degree.

Dougherty’s Model of Explanatory Factors has critical components to guide researchers

conducting persistence and academic success studies that include sizable student

populations of students beginning in the two-year sector. Research on student attrition has

consistently pinpointed a number of student demographic factors key to postsecondary

academic success. Age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and high school

preparation are essential factors to be considered when studying enrollment and degree

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attainment of a particular student population. Contributing college factors include

enrollment status and patterns, college GPA, and major.

Over three decades of research on college attendance have primarily focused on

enrollment, persistence, and graduation rates by institution or nationally by sector. During

this time, the growing number of institutional choices, higher educational costs, shifts in

student financial aid, course availability, and new delivery modes as well as who is

participating in higher education has greatly changed college attendance patterns. Evidence

of these changing dynamics was highlighted in NCES’ 1997 report on transfer behavior; it

reported that almost half of the students beginning college in 1989-90 had enrolled in more

than one institution by 1994 including the 12 percent that had attended three or more

colleges. In the 2003 report, NCES notes that a clear trend as developed with multi-

institutional attendance increasing from cohort to cohort since 1972.

The once traditional two- to four-year college transfer has been supplemented by

recognition of numerous other student paths—reverse transfer (four-year to two-year

colleges), lateral transfer (two-year to two-year colleges or four-year to four-year colleges),

concurrent enrollment in two institutions during the same term (“expediters” in Slark, 1982

and “double-dippers” by Gose, 1995), and multiple-transfer or swirling students (de los

Santos and Wright, 1990) who may alternate enrollment in various colleges frequently by

term. As noted by McCormick (2003), not all of these students exhibiting these various

pathways are actually transfer students in the traditional sense. Some students simply

supplement their home institution’s offerings with convenient offerings from other

institutions.

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Results from national studies highlighting the dramatic increases in multi-

institutional attendance, the growing number of enrollment patterns, and resulting effects

on degree attainment, especially on time-to-degree, have further complicated the traditional

methods of studying persistence. Measuring degree attainment four to six years after initial

entry into postsecondary education no longer captures the actual outcomes. Time in years

also fails to capture the effort or efficiency of either the student or the institution in degree

attainment. Terms enrolled or credits accumulated are more reflective measures in

postsecondary environments filled with changing enrollment and attendance patterns. A

few states have begun to recognize the need to evaluate their public higher educational

efforts by tracking student progress statewide versus standardized accountability measures

for each institution. The growing body of national studies on college attendance patterns

and degree attainment gleaned from data available in NCES’ longitudinal education

surveys is guiding some of these initial statewide efforts to look at system effectiveness

from the student’s perspective instead of the institution’s perspective.

The number of and the sophistication of state and system level studies are growing

in response to calls for more accountability and with the development of statewide student

tracking databases. Yet, some states have retained the traditional four- or five-year

measurement for graduation. Others have focused more on transfer activity with a

definition of transfer success as being accepted into a four-year institution versus obtaining

a four-year degree. Some state and regional studies emphasize institutional score cards,

often comparing individual institutions without controlling for differences in programs or

student characteristics. More comprehensive studies are from Illinois, Oregon, and

Wisconsin. The Oregon study includes numerous measures of transfer activity, detailed

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academic performance measurements at the university level for three different enrollment

pattern cohorts, and graduation rates at six years for natives and four years after transfer for

the other two cohorts (Arnold, 2001). Wisconsin also tracks transfer activity, academic

performance, persistence six years later, and graduation five years after transfer by level of

entry at transfer (University of Wisconsin System, 1998). Comparisons to entering native

freshmen are not included. Illinois’ approach avoids the problems of defining comparable

cohorts and the problems of various enrollment behaviors in time-to-degree measurements.

The state board reports persistence and graduation rates for only entering freshmen cohorts

tracked for 10 years. Time-to-degree is measured for exiting cohorts of degree earners in

terms of number of terms enrolled versus years. The terms-to- degree data is analyzed by

three key attendance patterns of the exiting cohort (Illinois State Board of Higher

Education, 1999).

Overall, this review of literature highlights the growing complexity of studying

postsecondary attendance and degree attainment. The benefit of the potential ability to

track students’ progression throughout postsecondary education have not overrode the

concerns about student privacy, database security, increased institutional reporting

demands, and possible new and expanding federal measures for institutional

accountability. State and system level studies are just beginning to contribute to the body

of knowledge concerning student persistence and degree attainment. These studies may

have an impact beyond adding to the overall body of research; some will likely impact

state policy development in the areas of the structure, the governance, and the funding of

higher education. National studies, especially those based on data from federally funded

national surveys, will continue to track student enrollment behaviors and outcomes beyond

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institution and state boundaries. Yet, national studies are still limited by the lack of a

national unit-record database (Cunningham and Milam, 2005) which could offer rich

student data often available in institutional and some state and system databases. Recent

efforts to expand the current Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System’s (IPEDS)

aggregate data into a unit-record database offering student tracking across all

postsecondary institutions in the country have not been successful in the proposed

legislation to renew the Higher Education Act (Burd, 2005, 2006; and Carnevale, 2005).

Nevertheless, institutional studies, aided by well established and rich internal databases,

will continue to add to the body of knowledge of student persistence and assist institutions

in evaluating trends and their own performance.

Research Methodology

An exploratory analysis, this study is to examine the relationship between

postsecondary attendance patterns and time-to-degree of recipients of baccalaureate

degrees at a large urban pubic university in the Southwest over a recent 10-year period. As

students’ enrollment decisions and time-to-degree attainment transcend fixed timeframes

and types of institution, this study adopts the Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index

(BDPI) as an alternative approach to the traditional time-to-degree measurement using

elapsed time. This is a retrospective study targeting first-time baccalaureate degree

recipients at the university during the 1995-96, 2000-01, and 2004-05 academic years,

regardless of when and where the students began their postsecondary study. The number

of students meeting this criterion for each cohort year is 4,942 for 1995-96, 5,713 for

2000-01 and 7,597 for 2004-05, and yields the total of 18,252 students.

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Detailed data on students were extracted from the Data Warehouse system

maintained by the university. Unit-record data from the Student Degree Granted,

Postsecondary Transfer Institution and Course Work, Student Profile, and Student Class

Enrollment tables were extracted. The data of interest included: 1) total attempted and

earned hours by semester; 2) total hours by each transfer institution by type; 3) earliest and

latest year and term of enrollment; 4) total hours counted toward degree completion; 5)

discipline of degree earned; 6) minimum hours required for degree completion by major of

study; and 7) other demographic and academic variables including age, gender, ethnicity,

residency of students, high school grade point average, college grade point average, and

academic program of study by discipline.

Lifetime Earned Credit Hours

Credit hours for each student are tabulated according to the earned hours from the

graduating institution and the previously attended institutions. Total earned credit hours are

tabulated according to seven institutional categories:

(1) Graduating institution (a four-year public university);

(2) Other public four-year institutions in the state;

(3) Other private four-year institutions in the state;

(4) Public two-year institutions within the county;

(5) Public two-year institutions outside the county;

(6) Other four-year institutions; and

(7) Other two-year institutions.

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Since not all earned credit hours are transferable, the total “Lifetime” earned credit

hours is the summation of total hours earned from the graduating institution, the total

transfer hours, and the total earned hours but not transferred from all previously attended

institutions.

Elapsed Time-to-Degree

The traditional method of measuring time-to-degree of students within an

institution is based on a preset time frame for an incoming cohort of students, such as first-

time freshmen or transfer students. However, in this study, the calculation of time-to-

degree was not limited to any incoming student cohorts. Instead, it is a measurement of

elapsed time from beginning of postsecondary study to baccalaureate degree attainment

from a student’s perspective. Because students might begin their postsecondary education

at some institution other than the final degree-granting institution, it was necessary to

identify the earliest beginning year and term of their academic career using the

undergraduate transfer institution records. The elapsed time (years-to-degree) is calculated

based on the beginning year and term as well as the ending year and term.

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI)

While the Graduation Efficiency Index (GEI) developed by University of

Washington remains a measurement of student success from a perspective of the

graduating institution, it does not take into account the graduation measurement from a

student’s perspective. Taking into account multi-institutional attendance and selected

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concepts from the GEI formula, a measurement of efficiency for students earning their first

baccalaureate degree is adopted as follows:

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index = Minimum Required Hours for Degree / Total “Lifetime” Earned Credit Hours X 100

Unlike the Graduation Efficiency Index developed by the University of Washington, the

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI) compares the preset minimum required

hours for the academic program from which the student earned the degree with the total

“lifetime” earned hours accumulated by the student from both the graduating institution

and all previously attended institutions. By calculating the ratio between the minimum

required hours for degree and the total “lifetime” earned hours, one can evaluate the extent

of the total effort of a student towards degree attainment. The higher the value of the BDPI,

the less excess effort the student put forth during the pursuit of a baccalaureate degree.

Quality of the Data

The population of this research is comprised of the first-time baccalaureate degree

recipients at the university during the 1995-96, 2000-01, and 2004-05 fall and spring

commencements. The decision to study the entire population (both indigenous or transfer

students) was made for the reason that the research focused on each student’s entire

academic career leading to the first baccalaureate degree, not the administrative

classification imposed by the university. To this end, all useable cases with completed

university enrollment and postsecondary transcript records were included. The steps taken

to ensure an accurate and representative sample of study are documented as follows:

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(1) Students who completed all their coursework in the earlier semester but delayed

graduation until a later semester are excluded.

(2) Students who began earning credits from any postsecondary institution prior to

age 14 (ninth grade equivalent) are excluded. Age is calculated by subtracting

the student’s birth year by the enrolled semester’s year.

(3) Students who had higher degree earned hours than the lifetime earned hours

(total earned hours from all postsecondary institutions including the degree

granting institution) are excluded.

(4) For students who co-enrolled while attending high school, their beginning year

of postsecondary attendance was reset to the high school graduation year. This

allows an accurate calculation of elapsed time to degree. However, the college

hours earned while co-enrolled are included for the calculation of the

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index.

(5) Lifetime earned hours are calculated based on all completed course credit hours

earned at the postsecondary institutions and the degree-granting institution,

regardless of transferability of the credits. A completed course credit hour must

have a satisfactory grade other than failing, incomplete or withdrawal.

Nontransferable credits that were determined to be remedial hours, duplicated

hours, or excess hours beyond transfer hour limits by the transcript evaluators

are also included in the calculation of lifetime earned hours.

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Determination of Postsecondary Attendance Patterns

In order to examine enrollment behavior of students, such as the occurrences of

transfer between and among the two-year and four-year sectors, as well as inside and

outside the state’s public postsecondary system, co-enrollment, and multi-institutional

attendance, the study population is classified into eight distinct, mutually exclusive,

postsecondary attendance patterns as follows:

(1) Attended the graduating institution only;

(2) Also attended other public four-year institutions within the state;

(3) Also attended the public two-year institutions within the county;

(4) Also attended the public two-year institutions outside the county;

(5) Also attended other public four-year and two-year institutions within the state;

(6) Also attended any four-year institution anywhere;

(7) Also attended any two-year institution anywhere; and

(8) Also attended multiple types of institutions, any combination of postsecondary

institutions other than the attendance patterns mentioned above.

For each of the eight attendance patterns, the number of students and total credit hours

earned by institution type are tabulated. The frequencies of co-enrollment among different

institutions are also documented. In addition, time-to-degree attainment using elapsed time

and the Baccalaureate Degree Efficiency Index are calculated in each of the eight

attendance pattern groups. Since the data analysis involves the entire population, the

differences between the demographic compositions are not a function of chance associated

with sampling; therefore, tests of statistical significance are not warranted.

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Research Findings

All data presented is in the context of the demographic characteristics and variables

that describe enrollment behavior and academic intensity for the first-time baccalaureate

degree recipients for each of the three cohorts. Table 1 shows the demographic

composition of the study population.

Table 1 Demographic Characteristics of the Study Population 1995-96 2000-01 2004-05 Total Number of Students 4,942 5,713 7,597 18,252 Female 2,732 55.3% 3,310 57.9% 4,317 56.8% 10,359 56.8% Male 2,210 44.7% 2,403 42.1% 3,280 43.2% 7,893 43.2% Asian 180 3.6% 254 4.4% 356 4.7% 790 4.3% Black 95 1.9% 149 2.6% 197 2.6% 441 2.4% Hispanic 400 8.1% 596 10.4% 847 11.1% 1,843 10.1% Native American 52 1.1% 90 1.6% 129 1.7% 271 1.5% White 3,913 79.2% 4,234 74.1% 5,440 71.6% 13,587 74.4% International 155 3.1% 183 3.2% 200 2.6% 538 2.9% Ethnicity Unknown 147 3.0% 207 3.6% 428 5.6% 782 4.3% Minority Total 727 14.7% 1,089 19.1% 1,529 20.1% 3,345 18.3% Nonresident 716 14.5% 1,119 19.6% 1,420 18.7% 3,255 17.8% Resident 4,226 85.5% 4,594 80.4% 6,177 81.3% 14,997 82.2% Age at Entry: Under 19 3,794 76.8% 4,449 77.9% 6,058 79.7% 14,301 78.4% 19 to 24 907 18.4% 1,007 17.6% 1,318 17.3% 3,232 17.7% 25 to 30 146 3.0% 155 2.7% 124 1.6% 425 2.3% 31 and Over 95 1.9% 102 1.8% 97 1.3% 294 1.6% Average Age 18.8 18.6 18.3 18.5 Age at Graduation: Under 21 23 0.5% 59 1.0% 113 1.5% 195 1.1% 21 to 26 3,447 69.7% 4,216 73.8% 5,864 77.2% 13,527 74.1% 27 to 32 816 16.5% 809 14.2% 926 12.2% 2,551 14.0% 33 and Over 656 13.3% 629 11.0% 694 9.1% 1,979 10.8% Average Age 26.3 25.6 25.1 25.6

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According to the data presented in Table 1, the population is comprised of 56.8

percent females and 43.2 percent males. The percentage distribution of students by gender

did not change significantly over the three different cohorts. Overall, female students

outpaced their male counterpart by 13.6 percent. In terms of racial ethnicity breakdown,

three-quarters (74.4 percent) were White, 18.3 percent were ethnic minority, and 2.9

percent were international students. International students are not classified by ethnicity.

The representation of minority students grew as much as 5.4 percent over the 10 year

period. Overall, 82.2 percent of students were residents of the state and 17.8 percent were

from an out-of state or a foreign country. However, the share of the out-of-state students

increased, from 14.5 percent in 1995-96 to 18.5 percent in 2004-05. The majority of

students from the beginning of postsecondary study to graduation fell within the age group

of 18 and 24. The average age at entry was 18.5, and the average age at graduation was

25.6. However, the average age of students for entry and graduation steadily decreased

over the 10-year period.

In terms of pre-college preparation, high school grade point average (HSGPA) is

the data variable for this measurement available in the dataset. Not all students have a high

school transcript on file with the university, especially for students who transferred from

other postsecondary institutions or were home-schooled. Nevertheless, there are 10,292

valid cases of HSGPA available for data analysis, representing 56.4 percent of the entire

study population. Table 2 presents the average high school grade point average by gender,

ethnicity, and the status of co-enrollment while in high school.

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Table 2 Average High School Grade Point Average (HSGPA) by Demographic Characteristics and Cohort Year Number of Students Average High School GPA 1995-96 2000-01 2004-05 Total 1995-96 2000-01 2004-05 Total Total 1,747 3,320 5,225 10,292 3.15 3.30 3.34 3.29 Female 941 1,999 3,048 5,988 3.21 3.35 3.39 3.35 Male 806 1,321 2,177 4,304 3.08 3.23 3.27 3.22 Asian 92 145 274 511 3.37 3.42 3.45 3.43 Black 21 87 114 222 3.04 3.19 3.14 3.15 Hispanic 127 329 545 1,001 3.22 3.28 3.28 3.27 Native American 17 40 70 127 3.35 3.31 3.31 3.32 White 1,439 2,587 3,924 7,950 3.12 3.30 3.34 3.29 International 8 13 16 37 3.24 3.36 3.32 3.32 Ethnicity Unknown 43 119 282 444 3.17 3.29 3.35 3.32 Did Not Co-enroll While in High School 1,552 2,654 3,744 7,950 3.12 3.25 3.28 3.24 Co-enrolled While in High School 195 666 1,481 2,342 3.39 3.51 3.50 3.49

According to the statistics shown in Table 2, female students included in this study

consistently earned higher average high school grade point averages (HSGPA) than their

male counterparts. Similarly, Asian students had the highest HSGPA among all other

ethnic groups, including the international students. Not surprisingly, high school students

who earned college credits while in high school had higher average HSGPA than the

students who did not. Also, increasingly more students earned college credits before their

high school graduation, 11.16 percent in the 1995-96 cohort, 20.06 percent in the 2000-01

cohort, and 28.34 percent in the 2005-06 cohort.

Academic performance of students can be measured by college grade point average

(CGPA). College GPA at graduation serves as an indicator which summarizes the level of

effort a student put forth while pursuing their degree. As shown in Table 3, the average

college grade point averages (CGPA) at graduation for female students were consistently

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higher than male students. Also, the average college GPA for students who pursued dual

majors was higher than that of the students who did not. In addition, White and

International students were more likely to earn high college GPAs than any other ethnic

groups.

Table 3 Average College Grade Point Average (CGPA) at Graduation by Demographic Characteristics, Dual Major, and Cohort Year Number of Students Average CGPA at Graduation 1995-96 2000-01 2004-05 Total 1995-96 2000-01 2004-05 Total Total 4,942 5,713 7,597 18,252 3.13 3.25 3.28 3.23 Female 2,732 3,310 4,317 10,359 3.23 3.33 3.35 3.31 Male 2,210 2,403 3,280 7,893 3.01 3.15 3.19 3.13 Asian 180 254 356 790 3.01 3.16 3.18 3.13 Black 95 149 197 441 2.87 3.05 3.08 3.02 Hispanic 400 596 847 1,843 3.03 3.19 3.19 3.16 Native American 52 90 129 271 2.91 2.97 3.10 3.02 White 3,913 4,234 5,440 13,587 3.16 3.28 3.31 3.26 International 155 183 200 538 3.17 3.23 3.28 3.23 Unknown 147 207 428 782 3.17 3.27 3.33 3.28 Non Dual Major 4,875 5,494 7,355 17,724 3.13 3.24 3.27 3.22 Dual Major 67 219 242 528 3.33 3.48 3.53 3.48

The number of credit hours counted towards a degree and the total number of

credits accumulated over the entire undergraduate career are good indicators of academic

intensity. Table 4 presents the average number of credit hours by categories including total

earned hours counted towards degree completion at graduation, total lifetime enrolled

hours, total lifetime earned hours, and total lifetime earned remedial hours. Enrolled hours

is the summation of all credit hours from courses with any final grades other than

‘incomplete’ or ‘withdrawal.’ Lifetime earned hours includes all transferable, duplicated

and remedial hours with satisfactory or non-failing grades.

21

Table 4 Credit Hours by Demographic Characteristics, Dual Major, and Prior Two-year Degree Earned

Students

Average Earned Hours

Towards Degree

Average Lifetime Enrolled

Hours

Average Lifetime Earned Hours

Students with

Remedial Hours

Average Lifetime Remedial

Hours Total 18,252 136.7 149.4 145.3 5,557 5.2 Female 10,359 135.5 147.6 144.3 3,452 5.3 Male 7,893 138.3 151.8 146.6 2,105 5.2 Asian 790 141.2 155.5 150.1 222 6.7 Black 441 137.7 158.3 150.2 165 6.9 Hispanic 1,843 136.5 152.5 148.5 802 6.6 Native American 271 141.0 168.5 158.4 132 6.5 White 13,587 136.1 147.9 144.1 3,859 4.6 International 538 138.7 146.8 143.2 149 8.2 Unknown 782 138.9 151.5 147.7 228 5.5 Non Dual Major 17,724 136.2 149.1 144.9 5,439 5.2 Dual Major 528 154.1 160.9 160.2 118 5.2 No Prior 2-year Degree 17,015 137.0 149.0 144.8 4,915 5.1 Prior 2-year Degree 1,237 131.8 155.2 151.9 642 6.1

It is not surprising to find that the group of students who pursued dual majors

earned more hours towards their degrees and averaged more lifetime earned hours than the

students graduating with a single major. The dual major students earned an average of 17.9

more earned hours toward their degrees and 15.3 more lifetime earned hours than non dual

major students. Interestingly, students with a prior two-year degree had lower average

earned hours than the students without a prior two-year degree, although the average

lifetime earned hours were 7.1 credit hours higher.

Among the study population, 30.4 percent (5,557 students) had earned credit hours

that at some point in time during their undergraduate academic career were remedial in

nature. The average number of remedial hours earned was 5.2. Although the average

22

remedial hours earned by ethnic minority group do not vary significantly, students in the

Black, Hispanic, and Native American groups were more likely to earn remedial hours.

Yet, the percentages of students with earned remedial hours for the Black, Hispanic, and

Native American categories were 37.4 percent, 43.5 percent, and 48.7 percent respectively,

higher than the overall percentage (30.4 percent) for all students.

The average number of fall and/or spring semesters enrolled, the average number of

occurrences of co-enrollment, and the average number of stop-outs or periods of hiatus by

student characteristics are presented in Table 5. These statistics provide an understanding

of the academic intensity of students as they move through the postsecondary pipeline.

Table 5 Average Counts of Fall/Spring Semester Enrolled, Co-enrollment, and Hiatus by Demographic Characteristics of Students

Students

Average Number of Fall/Spring

Semesters Attended

Students Who Co-enrolled

Average Count of

Co-enrollment

Students with Hiatus

Average Count of Hiatus

Total 18,252 11.5 6,152 1.7 5,438 1.6 Female 10,359 11.4 3,774 1.7 3,056 1.6 Male 7,893 11.6 2,378 1.7 2,382 1.5 Asian 790 11.7 289 1.8 171 1.5 Black 441 12.4 149 1.8 170 1.6 Hispanic 1,843 12.3 664 1.7 603 1.6 Native American 271 13.0 84 1.8 121 1.6 White 13,587 11.5 4,475 1.7 4,095 1.6 International 538 8.4 215 2.1 34 1.0 Ethnicity Unknown 782 11.4 276 1.8 244 1.5 Non-resident 3,255 9.4 770 1.7 313 1.2 Resident 14,997 12.0 5,382 1.7 5,125 1.6

Hiatus is defined as when a student has a break in continuous enrollment from any

postsecondary institution for 12 months or longer. Co-enrollment is defined as concurrent

23

attendance at more than one postsecondary institution during any fall, spring or summer

session. As presented in Table 5, the average number of fall and/or spring semesters

enrolled was 11.5 semesters for the entire study population. It is not surprising that the

group comprised of international undergraduate students earned degrees with the fewest

number of semesters attended and the smallest percentage of these students took time off

(6.3 percent), compared with the overall average of 29.8 percent of students who had at

least one attendance break of 12 months or longer. This is likely due to the immigration

guidelines and visa restrictions that international students must follow. In terms of co-

enrollment, about one-third (33.7 percent) of students in the study population (6,152 out of

18,252 students) co-enrolled at least once with a two-year public institution within the

county during the course of their study at the graduating institution. The average number of

occurrences of co-enrollment was 1.7 terms.

As a concluding step to describe the overall population of the study, Table 6

presents the elapsed time-to-degree and Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI) of

students. Based on the statistics shown, students from a foreign country or out-of-state

tended to take the shortest time and progressed to degree attainment more efficiently. This

might be the result of the cost differential between in-state and out-of-state tuitions.

Because the average remedial hours taken were minimal for the entire study population

(see Table 4), the resultant average Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index calculated

based on the inclusion and exclusion of remedial hours were relatively similar.

24

Table 6 Time-to-Degree and Graduation Progression Index (BDPI) by Demographic Characteristics of Students

Number of Students

Average Elapsed Time-to-Degree

(Years)

Average BDPI including Remedial

Hours

Average BDPI excluding

Remedial Hours Total 18,252 6.8 84.8 85.7 Female 10,359 7.0 85.0 86.0 Male 7,893 6.7 84.5 85.2 Asian 790 6.2 82.9 83.8 Black 441 8.0 82.5 83.8 Hispanic 1,843 7.2 83.0 84.5 Native American 271 8.4 78.3 79.8 White 13,587 6.8 85.4 86.1 International 538 5.8 86.2 87.4 Ethnicity Unknown 782 6.8 83.8 84.6 Non-resident 3,255 4.7 89.0 89.5 Resident 14,997 7.3 83.9 84.8

Postsecondary Attendance Patterns

The journey from the beginning of postsecondary attendance to degree attainment

is unique for each student as circumstances and opportunities arise differently from one

person to the other. As there were over eighteen thousand students included in this study,

there are probably nearly as many attendance patterns as the total number of students.

Therefore, in order to study attendance patterns in a systematic manner, the design of the

study focused on seven types of postsecondary institutions a student might pass through

along the way to degree completion, and placed students into the eight distinct mutually

exclusive attendance patters which were based on the types of institutions the students had

attended. Table 7 presents the number of students for the eight attendance patterns. Being

the degree-granting institution, the graduating institution is uniformly included in each of

the eight different attendance patterns. The rationale for the classification scheme is based

25

on the various combinations of institution types by sector (two-year versus four-year),

control (public versus private), and geographic location (inside versus outside the county

where the graduating institution is located).

Table 7 Number of Students by Attendance Pattern Number Percent Attended the graduating institution only 2,432 13.3% - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state 152 0.8% - also attended public 2-year institutions inside the county 7,817 42.8% - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county 312 1.7% - also attended other public 4-year and 2-Year Institutions within the state 1,556 8.5% - also attended any four-year institution anywhere 978 5.4% - also attended any 2-year institution anywhere 1,907 10.4% - also attended multiple types of institutions 3,098 17.0% Total 18,252 100.0%

As shown in Table 7, about 1 in 8 students (13.3 percent) attended only the

graduating institution throughout their entire undergraduate career. If adding the students

who attended only the public four-year institutions in the state, the percentage increased

merely by 0.8 percent. By expanding the group to include students who attended only the

public institutions in the state, both the two-year and four-year sectors, the percentage

jumped to 67.1 percent. However, the majority of these students (42.8 percent) attended

only the graduating institution and other public two-year institutions inside the county. The

data also show that 41.3 percent of the students had attended three or more types of

institutions throughout their course of study. This included 8.5 percent of students who

attended the graduating institution and other public four-year and two-year institutions in

the state; 5.4 percent of students who attended the graduating institution and any four-year

institution anywhere; 10.4 percent of students who attended the graduating institution and

26

any two-year institution anywhere; and 17.0 percent of students who attended multiple

types of institutions.

Where did the undergraduate degree recipients of the graduating institution begin

their postsecondary career? Table 8 shows the students by type of institutions where the

postsecondary study began, and the average credit hours earned before they transferred.

Table 8 Credit Hours Earned Before Transfer by Beginning Institution Mean Std Dev N Total 18,252 Graduating institution - - 4,915 Other public 4-year institutions within the state 33.3 21.8 674 Private 4-year institutions within the state 33.9 27.8 95 Public 2-year institutions inside the county 52.2 30.6 7,225 Public 2-year institutions outside the county 39.0 31.6 860 Other 4-year institutions 40.1 27.9 2,381 Other 2-year institutions 41.6 30.4 2,102

As shown in Table 8, oddly enough, only about a quarter of the students (26.9

percent) started at the graduating institution. About two in five students (39.6 percent)

started at one of the public two-year institutions within the county. On average, these

students earned 52.2 hours from the two-year institutions before transferring to other types

of institutions, including the graduating institution. Students who began their

postsecondary career in four-year institutions other than the graduating institution,

regardless of the type of control and geographic location, totaled 17.3 percent. The average

hours earned before transfer were between 33.3 to 40.1 hours.

27

Time-to-Degree

Table 9 shows the elapsed time-to-degree for each of the eight modes of

postsecondary attendance. Elapsed time-to-degree is the difference between the year of

initial enrollment and the year of degree completion. For students who co-enrolled with a

postsecondary institution while in high school, the initial year of postsecondary attendance

was replaced by the high school graduation year before the elapsed year was calculated.

Table 9 Elapsed Time-to-Degree by Attendance Pattern Mean Std Dev N

Attended graduating institution only 4.2 1.3 2,432 - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state 5.3 2.7 152 - also attended public 2-year institutions inside the county 6.4 4.1 7,817 - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county 5.7 3.0 312 - also attended other public 4-year and 2-Year Institutions within the state 7.2 4.6 1,556 - also attended any four-year institution anywhere 5.6 3.3 978 - also attended any 2-year institution anywhere 8.1 6.0 1,907 - also attended multiple types of institutions 9.4 6.7 3,098 Total 6.8 4.6 18,252

As shown in Table 9, the average time-to-degree for all students in the study

population was 6.8 years. Time-to-degree statistics varied among the eight modes of

attendance patterns. Not surprisingly, the students who attended the graduating institution

only took the shortest time to earn a baccalaureate degree compared with all other modes

of postsecondary attendance. The average elapsed time-to-degree for these students was

4.2 years. The second shortest average time-to-degree was for students attended the

graduating institution and other public four-year institutions in the state (5.3 years),

followed by graduating institution and any four-year institution anywhere (5.6 years). The

28

longest average time-to-degree was for students attended multiple types of institutions (9.4

years).

Regarding the relationship between the modes of postsecondary attendance and

time-to-degree, three major themes emerge. First, the more different types of institutions

the students attended, the longer the average year-to-degree became. Second, students who

attended only four-year institutions, regardless of control and geographic location,

typically had fewer years to degree. Third, students who co-enrolled with a local

community college did not seem to shorten their time-to-degree. This was evidenced by

the fact that student groups in the modes of attendance where co-enrollment was possible

did not show any signs of shorter times-to-degree.

In order to further evaluate the relationship between time-to-degree and enrollment

behavior, Table 10 lists various enrollment variables by elapsed time-to-degree category.

The time-to-degree categories were formed in accordance with the common scheme for

student tracking, i.e. four-year, six-year, nine-year, and over nine years. As shown in Table

10, about one-third (32.3 percent) of the students graduated within four years; another one-

third (32.8 percent) graduated within six years; and another one-third (35.0 percent)

graduated beyond six years. Similar to the earlier mentioned theme about the positive

correlation between time-to-degree and number of institution types attended, data in Table

10 show that the number of lifetime earned credit hours, enrollment terms, and hiatus

counts were positively correlated with time-to-degree as well. This is an indication that

when students transferred from one institution to another, more earned credit hours

accumulated and extra terms (time) were taken.

29

In addition, the averages for the number of terms of co-enrollment with the local

community colleges (two-year public institutions within the county) across the four time-

to-degree categories did not vary much. This observation is consistent with the other

earlier mentioned theme that co-enrollment did not contribute to shorter time-to-degree.

This is an indication that students who co-enrolled with a local community college utilized

this mode of attendance as a supplement for academic experience instead of a time-saving

measure.

Table 10 Average Lifetime Hours, Enrollment Terms and Hiatus Counts by Time-to-Degree Category

Up to 4.0

Years 4.1 and 6.0

Years 6.1 and 9.0

Years Longer than

9.0 Years

Number 5,879 5,987 3,196 3,190 Percent 32.2% 32.8% 17.5% 17.5% Lifetime Earned Hours 130.3 143.2 155.7 166.4 Lifetime Remedial Hours 3.8 4.9 5.6 5.7 Fall/Spring Terms 8.8 10.7 13.1 16.4 Summer Terms 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.0 Community College Co-Enrolled Terms 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.9

As the lifetime earned credit hours, enrolled terms, and hiatus count were positively

correlated with time-to-degree for the general study population, it is necessary to examine

how these variables behaved in each of the modes of attendance. Table 11 shows the

average lifetime earned hours, fall/spring terms and hiatus count for each of the different

modes of postsecondary attendance.

30

Table 11 Average Lifetime Hours, Enrollment Terms and Hiatus Counts by Attendance Pattern and Time-to-Degree Category

Up to 4.0

Years 4.1 and 6.0

Years 6.1 and 9.0

Years Longer than

9.0 Years Attended graduating institution only Lifetime Earned Hours 127.6 138.9 149.6 149.9 Fall/Spring Terms 8.2 10.4 13.0 15.1 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state Lifetime Earned Hours 130.0 146.2 172.3 172.2 Fall/Spring Terms 8.4 10.5 13.1 15.3 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 - also attended public 2-year institutions inside the county Lifetime Earned Hours 130.5 141.9 152.0 162.3 Fall/Spring Terms 9.1 10.9 13.6 17.6 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.8 - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county Lifetime Earned Hours 131.9 147.2 162.4 170.1 Fall/Spring Terms 9.4 11.3 13.1 16.1 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 - also attended other public 4-year and 2-Year Institutions within the state Lifetime Earned Hours 133.0 145.5 158.8 168.3 Fall/Spring Terms 9.0 11.1 13.5 16.7 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.9 - also attended any 4-year institution anywhere Lifetime Earned Hours 131.7 144.5 158.3 160.9 Fall/Spring Terms 8.5 9.9 11.3 12.7 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 - also attended any 2-year institution anywhere Lifetime Earned Hours 130.6 145.3 159.3 166.6 Fall/Spring Terms 8.7 10.6 13.0 15.8 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.0 - also attended multiple types of institutions Lifetime Earned Hours 134.1 147.3 159.8 170.6 Fall/Spring Terms 8.9 10.5 12.3 15.7 Hiatus Counts 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.1

Not surprisingly, students who attended the graduating institution only had the

lowest average lifetime earned hours among all eight modes of postsecondary attendance

across all four elapsed time categories. However, the relationships between time-to-degree

and credit hours earned, fall/spring term enrollment, and hiatus count were consistent

31

across all modes of attendance patterns. As the values for each of these variables rose, the

years to degree became longer. In fact, by limiting the comparisons of the enrollment

variables across all modes of postsecondary attendance to the students in each of the time-

to-degree categories, the variations among groups were minimal. Therefore, a particular

mode of postsecondary attendance may be associated with the number of earned hours

accumulated, the number of enrolled terms, and the likelihood of stopping out; however, it

was not a sufficient condition to determine how fast a student would progress through the

postsecondary pipeline.

The analyses of academic variables in relation to time-to-degree and attendance

patterns were limited to whether students earned a two-year associate degree prior to

baccalaureate degree attainment, pursued a dual major, College GPA at graduation and

academic discipline. Earning an associate degree prior to baccalaureate degree attainment

may be an indication of students who might not view earning a bachelor degree as their

primary educational objective. As data shown in Table 12, only a small portion (14.3

percent) of these students could earn both two-year and four-year degrees within 4 years.

For the students who had successfully done so, they were more likely to be the attendees of

the public two-year institutions within the state, where transfer articulation agreements

between the two-year and four-year sectors exist to enhance the chances of a seamless

transfer. On the other hand, over half (53.7 percent) of the students, who had a two-year

degree and attended multiple types of institutions, took longer than nine years to

baccalaureate degree completion.

32

Table 12 Number of Students by Attendance Patterns, Associate Degree Earned, and Time-to-Degree Associate Degree No Associate Degree (Years) (Years) <= 4 4.1-6 6.1-9 > 9 <= 4 4.1-6 6.1-9 > 9

177 376 307 377 5,702 5,611 2,889 2,813 Total 14.3% 30.4% 24.8% 30.5% 33.5% 33.0% 17.0% 16.5%

- - - - 1,555 752 98 27 Attended graduating institution only - - - - 63.9% 30.9% 4.0% 1.1%

- - - - 57 72 12 11 - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state - - - - 37.5% 47.4% 7.9% 7.2%

133 234 169 157 2,275 2,566 1,319 964 - also attended public 2-year institutions within the county 19.2% 33.8% 24.4% 22.7% 31.9% 36.0% 18.5% 13.5%

8 14 13 9 104 107 36 21 - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county 18.2% 31.8% 29.5% 20.5% 38.8% 39.9% 13.4% 7.8%

11 40 35 35 329 522 300 284 - also attended other public 4-year and 2-year institutions within the state 9.1% 33.1% 28.9% 28.9% 22.9% 36.4% 20.9% 19.8%

- - 1 5 405 350 133 84 - also attended any 4-year institution anywhere - - 16.7% 83.3% 41.7% 36.0% 13.7% 8.6%

15 53 41 63 460 483 353 439 - also attended any 2-year institution anywhere 8.7% 30.8% 23.8% 36.6% 26.5% 27.8% 20.3% 25.3%

10 35 48 108 517 759 638 983 - also attended multiple types of institutions 5.0% 17.4% 23.9% 53.7% 17.8% 26.2% 22.0% 33.9%

Did pursuing a dual major add to the burden of students by prolonging their time-

to-degree? Data shown in Table 13 do not support that notion. In fact, a higher percentage

of students who pursued a dual major graduated faster than the students who did not pursue

a dual major (41.9 percent of the students who pursued dual major graduated within four

years, compared to 31.9 percent of the students who did not pursue a dual major). This

phenomenon was consistently recorded across all postsecondary attendance patterns.

33

Table 13 Number of Students by Attendance Patterns, Dual Major, and Time-to-Degree Dual Major Not Dual Major (Years) (Years) <= 4 4.1-6 6.1-9 > 9 <= 4 4.1-6 6.1-9 > 9

221 165 78 64 5,658 5,822 3,118 3,126 Total 41.9% 31.3% 14.8% 12.1% 31.9% 32.8% 17.6% 17.6%

55 33 3 - 1,500 719 95 27 Attended graduating institution only

60.4% 36.3% 3.3% - 64.1% 30.7% 4.1% 1.2%

5 4 2 1 52 68 10 10 - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state

41.7% 33.3% 16.7% 8.3% 37.1% 48.6% 7.1% 7.1%

88 77 29 21 2,320 2,723 1,459 1,100 - also attended public 2-year institutions within the county

40.9% 35.8% 13.5% 9.8% 30.5% 35.8% 19.2% 14.5%

9 1 1 1 103 120 48 29 - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county

75.0% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 34.3% 40.0% 16.0% 9.7%


20 11 2 2 385 339 132 87 - also attended any 4-year institution anywhere

57.1% 31.4% 5.7% 5.7% 40.8% 35.9% 14.0% 9.2%

13 8 14 8 462 528 380 494 - also attended any 2-year institution anywhere

30.2% 18.6% 32.6% 18.6% 24.8% 28.3% 20.4% 26.5%

20 19 20 24 507 775 666 1,067 - also attended multiple types of institutions

24.1% 22.9% 24.1% 28.9% 16.8% 25.7% 22.1% 35.4%

It has been a common conception that the better academically prepared students

would progress through the postsecondary pipeline faster than the academically struggling

students. Data shown in Table 14 seem to support that assertion.

34

Table 14 Number of Students by Attendance Patterns, College GPA at Graduation, and Time-to-Degree CGPA Below 3.0 CGPA 3.0 and Over (Years) (Years) <= 4 4.1-6 6.1-9 > 9 <= 4 4.1-6 6.1-9 > 9

1,188 2,387 1,301 856 4,691 3,600 1,895 2,334 Total 20.7% 41.6% 22.7% 14.9% 37.5% 28.8% 15.1% 18.6%

319 343 60 19 1,236 409 38 8 Attended graduating institution only 43.0% 46.3% 8.1% 2.6% 73.1% 24.2% 2.2% 0.5%

9 29 5 2 48 43 7 9 - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state 20.0% 64.4% 11.1% 4.4% 44.9% 40.2% 6.5% 8.4%

447 1,056 604 347 1,961 1,744 884 774 - also attended public 2-year institutions within the county 18.2% 43.0% 24.6% 14.1% 36.6% 32.5% 16.5% 14.4%

18 52 21 11 94 69 28 19 - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county 17.6% 51.0% 20.6% 10.8% 44.8% 32.9% 13.3% 9.0%




107 278 250 241 420 516 436 850 - also attended multiple types of institutions 12.2% 31.7% 28.5% 27.5% 18.9% 23.2% 19.6% 38.3%

Of the students with College GPA 3.0 and above, 37.5 percent graduated within

four years, but only 20.7 percent of students in the lower College GPA category did so. For

the students who earned a College GPA below 3.0, they were more likely to graduate in

the over four years and under six years time-to-degree category regardless of the mode of

postsecondary attendance. Although the students in general with College GPA 3.0 and

over were more likely to graduate within four years, this was not the case for students who

primarily attended two-year institutions out-of-state and multiple types of institutions.

About one-third of these students took longer than nine years to degree completion (31.9

35

percent of students attended the graduating institution and any two-year institution

anywhere, and 38.3 percent of students attended the graduating institution and multiple

types of institutions). Did type of academic program play a role in time-to-degree for the

students? Table 15 shows the average elapsed time-to-degree and lifetime earned hours by

classification of instructional program.

Table 15 Average Elapsed Time and Lifetime Earned Hours by Instructional Program

Instructional Program Elapsed

Time Lifetime

Earned Hours Number Transportation and Materials Moving 5.5 148.2 48 Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies & Humanity 5.5 145.7 57 Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs 6.0 137.0 676 Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support 6.2 140.6 3,954 Psychology 6.2 140.7 903 Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences 6.2 140.9 164 Philosophy and Religious Studies 6.4 141.1 85 Security and Protective Services 6.5 135.9 751 Parks, Recreation, Leisure and Fitness Studies 6.5 146.5 467 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 6.5 154.4 617 Architecture and Related Services 6.5 156.2 327 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related S 6.5 138.5 153 Computer and Information Sciences & Support Service 6.6 156.3 209 Engineering 6.7 163.2 1,311 Visual and Performing Arts 6.8 150.0 864 Social Sciences 7.0 140.6 354 Education 7.1 143.8 4,924 Foreign Languages, Literatures, and Linguistics 7.2 147.5 16 Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 7.3 135.8 877 Natural Resources and Conservation 7.4 157.4 40 English Language and Literature/Letters 7.5 139.5 196 Mathematics and Statistics 8.2 157.8 6 Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences 8.5 160.3 542 Engineering Technologies/Technicians 8.9 171.8 201 Public Administration and Social Service Profession 9.5 148.4 344 Physical Sciences 9.8 157.0 4 Area, Ethnic, Cultural, and Gender Studies 9.9 148.3 56 History 11.1 149.1 44 Science Technologies/Technicians 12.6 161.2 62

36

Although the general university requirement for degree completion was 120 hours

for baccalaureate degree completion, a few programs required 128 hours, mostly in the

Engineering and Technology fields. It is not surprising to find that students in the Science

Technologies/Technicians and Engineering fields had the highest average years to degree

compared with students in other disciplines. The difference in elapsed time-to-degree for

the lowest and the highest groups was 7.1 years. However, in comparing the difference in

average lifetime earned hours between these two same groups, the average hour difference

was only 13 hours which would not be explained by merely the result of the time

difference. Also, there was no evidence to show that any strong relationships existed

between elapsed time-to-degree, lifetime hours earned and academic discipline.

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index

Up to this point, the research had focused on the study of attendance patterns and

enrollment behavior, and how they were related to time-to degree. The measurement of

degree progression had been the elapsed time-to-degree of which measures the total years

between beginning postsecondary attendance and degree completion. By all means,

students’ time-to-degree is a function of the number of terms enrolled, the number of types

of institutions attended, and the number of occurrences of hiatus. However, the

measurement of degree progression using time-to-degree does not take into account the

special requirements of a specific degree program, the academic intensity, and the

educational objective of an individual student. Therefore, a new measure of student

graduation progression, Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI) has been adopted

for this research. BDPI is calculated using the following formula:

37

BDPI = Required Hours for Degree / Total Lifetime Earned Hours X 100

By calculating the ratio between the required hours for degree and the total lifetime earned

hours, one can evaluate the efficiency of students working towards degree attainment. The

higher the value of the BDPI, the more efficient of the student in pursuing a baccalaureate

degree will be considered.

Table 16 Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI) by Attendance Pattern

BDPI (With Remedial

Hours)

BDPI (Without

Remedial Hours) Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev N

Attended graduating institution only 92.2 7.9 92.3 7.9 2,432

- also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state 85.1 10.1 85.2 10.1 152

- also attended public 2-year institutions inside the county 85.7 10.4 86.8 10.2 7,817

- also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county 84.1 10.7 85.1 10.3 312 - also attended other public 4-year and 2-Year Institutions within the state 81.9 11.1 82.7 11.0 1,556

- also attended any four-year institution anywhere 86.2 10.1 86.4 10.0 978

- also attended any 2-year institution anywhere 82.2 11.7 83.4 11.6 1,907

- also attended multiple types of institutions 79.4 12.2 80.2 12.1 3,098

Total 84.8 10.7 85.7 10.5 18,252

Table 16 shows the Baccalaureate Degree Progression Indexes, both with and

without lifetime remedial hours, by attendance pattern. As the data show, the differences

between the BDPI with and without lifetime remedial hours were very minimal across all

attendance patterns. The overall change was less than one percent (84.8 percent verses 85.7

percent). Therefore, the BDPI without lifetime remedial hours is the primary indicator used

for comparison purposes.

38

Among the modes of postsecondary attendance, students who attended the

graduating institution only achieved the highest average efficiency (92.2 percent).

Consistent with the data shown in Table 9, the average time-to-degree for these students

was 4.2 years, the shortest time-to-degree among all other modes of postsecondary

attendance. Similarly, for the group of students who attended multiple types of institutions

and took the longest average time, they achieved the lowest average progression index

(80.2 percent) among all attendance patterns. Again, for students who attended more than

two types of institutions or an out-of-state two-year institution, their progress indexes were

below the overall average of 85.7 percent among all students.

Were there any differences in BDPI in terms of various enrollment behaviors of

students? Table 17 lists the various enrollment variables by BDPI category.

Table 17 Average Lifetime Hours, Enrollment Terms and Hiatus Counts by Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index Category

Below 76 Percent 76 to 85 Percent 86 to 95 Percent Above 95 Percent All Students

Number 3,284 4,343 6,187 4,438 Percent 18.0% 23.8% 33.9% 24.3%

Lifetime Earned Hours 184.0 152.4 135.4 123.4 Fall/Spring Terms 15.5 12.2 10.5 9.2 Summer Terms 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.2 Hiatus Counts 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3

The data indicated that there were strong negative correlations between the

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index and each of the enrollment variables. Consistent

with the elapsed time-to-degree measurement, the higher the number of enrollment terms,

39

or hiatus counts for students, the more likely the lower percentages of BDPI would be

achieved. And, at the same time, elapsed time-to-degree was negatively correlated with

BDPI as confirmed by the cross-tabulation of data shown in Table 18.

Table 18 Students by Time-to-Degree Category and Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index Category Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index Category

Time-to-Degree Category Below 76 Percent

76 to 85 Percent

86 to 95 Percent

Above 95 Percent Total

120 572 2,241 2,946 5,879 Up to 4.0 Years 2.0% 9.7% 38.1% 50.1% 32.2%

667 1,827 2,465 1,028 5,987 Between 4.1 and 6.0 Years

11.1% 30.5% 41.2% 17.2% 32.8%

1,028 1,036 843 289 3,196 Between 6.1 and 9.0 Years 32.2% 32.4% 26.4% 9.0% 17.5%

1,469 908 638 175 3,190 Beyond 9.0 Years

46.1% 28.5% 20.0% 5.5% 17.5%

3,284 4,344 6,188 4,439 18,252 Total 18.0% 23.8% 33.9% 24.3%

Did type of academic program play a role in the graduation progression

measurement? Table 19 shows the average BDPI along with the elapsed time-to-degree by

classification of instructional program. As mentioned earlier in this study, the degree

requirement for Science Technologies/Technicians and Engineering fields was 128 hours

instead of 120 hours for the general university requirement for degree completion. By

adjusting the minimum degree requirement to 128 hours, the average BDPI for Science

Technologies/ Technicians and Engineering programs remained below 80 percent.

However, when compared with the ranking by time-to-degree, from the shortest to the

40

longest time-to-degree, the rankings shifted significantly. In addition to the traditional

time-to-degree measurement, the Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index is an appropriate

measurement of degree progression when the differences among degree programs are

considered.

Table 19 Average Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI) and Time-to-Degree by Instructional Program

Instructional Program BDPI (%) Elapsed Time

(Year) Ranking by

Time Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 90.8 7.3 12 Security and Protective Services 90.7 6.5 5 Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs 89.5 6.0 2 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Service 88.9 6.5 5 English Language and Literature/Letters 88.5 7.5 14 Foreign Languages, Literatures, and Linguistics 87.9 7.2 11 Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences 87.6 6.2 3 Social Sciences 87.5 7.0 9 Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support 87.4 6.2 3 Psychology 87.4 6.2 3 Philosophy and Religious Studies 87.1 6.4 4 Education 86.2 7.1 10 Public Administration and Social Service Profession 85.1 9.5 18 Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Hum 85.0 5.5 1 Area, Ethnic, Cultural, and Gender Studies 84.6 9.9 20 Parks, Recreation, Leisure and Fitness Studies 84.0 6.5 5 History 83.4 11.1 21 Visual and Performing Arts 82.8 6.8 8 Transportation and Materials Moving 82.6 5.5 1 Engineering 80.7 6.7 7 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 79.8 6.5 5 Architecture and Related Services 79.7 6.5 5 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Service 78.9 6.6 6 Natural Resources and Conservation 78.5 7.4 13 Physical Sciences 78.5 9.8 19 Science Technologies/Technicians 78.3 12.6 22 Mathematics and Statistics 77.5 8.2 15 Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences 77.4 8.5 16 Engineering Technologies/Technicians 77.3 8.9 17

41

In addressing the research question about the extent of which differences emerged

by choosing either approach to measure student graduation progression, the analysis of

data did not reveal a significant difference among these two approaches. Both approaches

were correlated with all the enrollment variables, including lifetime earned hours, number

of fall/spring terms enrollment, and occurrences of hiatus. In general, the more the

fall/spring terms the students enrolled in, the higher the lifetime earned hours would be

accumulated. In turn, this leads to longer time-to-degree and lower efficiency which is

measured by Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index.

While students move through the postsecondary pipeline and enroll in different

types of institutions, there is a high possibility that both the number of lifetime earned

hours and terms of enrollment will increase accordingly. Also, all earned hours might not

be fully transferable from institution to institution; and therefore, a lower graduation

progression index would occur. However, the primary difference between elapsed time-to-

degree and BDPI is that the BDPI removes any time element that is specifically associated

with a particular student’s attendance, including stop-outs and time between transfers.

Also, it adds a new perspective for the research of efficiency of progression to degree

attainment by academic discipline.

There is no evidence to show that there were gender differences in graduation

efficiency; however in Table 20, when the average BDPIs were calculated for females and

males based on the instructional programs of degree earned, it became apparent that

students in a particular gender achieved higher efficiencies in their corresponding

traditionally gender dominant field. For example, in the male dominant Physical Science

discipline, the average BDPI for male students was 89.2 percent, opposed to 67.8 percent

42

for female students. Similarly, in the female dominant Health Professions and Related

Clinical Sciences discipline, the average BDPI for female students was 6.7 percent points

higher than their male counterpart. The difference in BDPI by gender might be the result of

students whose aspiration to become involved in a particular profession, focused in a

particular program of study early on in achieving their career goals.

Table 20 Average Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index by Gender, and Top 10 Instructional Programs with Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index Difference Female Male Difference All Students 86.0 85.2 0.8 Instructional Program - Top 10 Difference Physical Sciences 67.8 89.2 -21.4 Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences 78.0 71.3 6.7 Public Administration and Social Service Professions 86.0 79.9 6.1 Science Technologies/Technicians 81.8 77.3 4.5 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Services 86.0 90.2 -4.2 Transportation and Materials Moving 84.9 82.2 2.7 History 81.9 84.6 -2.7 Social Sciences 88.6 86.2 2.4 Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs 90.3 88.1 2.2 Foreign Languages, Literatures, and Linguistics 88.5 86.4 2.1

Over the 10-year period, as students enrolled in fewer terms and accumulated fewer

hours, all indications point to the direction that students are taking less time and

progressing more efficiently along the way to degree attainment. As shown in Table 21,

the overall average time-to-degree had dropped from 7.4 years in 1995-96 to 6.5 years in

2004-05. Similarly, the overall average BDPI increased from 81.8 percent in 1995-96 to

87.5 percent in 2004-05. Compared with all other modes of postsecondary attendance,

students who attended the graduating institution only were consistently achieved the

highest graduation efficiency over the 10-year period.

43

Table 21 Average Time-to-Degree and Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index (BDPI) by Attendance Pattern and Cohort Year 1995-96 2000-01 2004-05 Total Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 7.4 6.8 6.5 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 81.8 86.5 87.5 Attended graduating institution only Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 4.6 4.1 4.2 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 88.7 93.4 93.0 - also attended other public 4-year institutions within the state Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 5.3 5.3 5.3 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 82.9 86.6 86.8 - also attended public 2-year institutions inside the county Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 7.1 6.5 6.0 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 82.9 87.2 88.9 - also attended public 2-year institutions outside the county Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 6.1 5.1 5.9 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 82.6 86.2 85.8 - also attended other public 4-year and 2-Year Institutions within

the state Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 7.6 7.1 7.1 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 79.4 83.6 84.2 - also attended any four-year institution anywhere Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 6.0 5.4 5.2 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 83.5 87.9 88.0 - also attended any 2-year institution anywhere Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 8.4 8.1 7.9 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 79.7 84.9 84.9 - also attended multiple types of institutions Average Time-to-Degree (Years) 9.7 9.3 9.3 Average BDPI (Excluded Remedial Hours) 77.6 81.1 81.8

44

Summary of the Research Findings

Based on the data analyses conducted in the chapter, the following themes

emerged:

(1) Attendance patterns alone did not determine students’ time-to-degree, although

there was some evidence that students were likely to take a longer time to

degree if they attended out-of-state two-year institutions or multiple types of

institutions during their academic careers.

(2) Time-to-degree was positively correlated to the lifetime earned hours, number

of enrolled fall/spring terms and occurrences of hiatus. Indeed, the higher the

number of terms enrolled, the more lifetime earned hours accumulated.

(3) Earning an associate degree prior to baccalaureate degree attainment increased

the likelihood of a prolonged time-to-degree. However, pursuing a dual major

did not extend time-to-degree as one might expect.

(4) In examining the relationship between time-to-degree and lifetime earned hours

across academic disciplines, there was no strong connection found.

(5) There was a strong negative correlation between elapsed time-to-degree and the

Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index. A shorter time-to-degree is associated

with a higher Baccalaureate Degree Progression Index.

(6) Over the 10-year period, the profile for the degree recipients became younger,

more ethnically diverse, and better academically prepared. In addition, degree

recipients are taking fewer years, progressing towards their degrees more

efficiently. This might be the results of the improvement of articulation and

strengthen transfer agreements between institutions.

45

Implications of Research Findings

This study provided a unique opportunity to describe the conditions of first-time

baccalaureate degree recipients from a large urban public university in terms of attendance

patterns, enrollment behavior and time-to-degree. The implications of the research findings

can provide some insights for the enrollment management personnel within the universities

in terms of the formulation of policies and implementation of programs that are relevant to

their enrollment management efforts. In addition, this study revealed that a sizeable

portion of students attended multiple institutions and took longer than the normal four

years for baccalaureate degree attainment. These results have profound implications for the

true cost of baccalaureate education, academic program design, and the existing

measurements of student graduation progression.

Academic Advising

First and foremost, the study revealed that the outcomes of time-to-degree and

graduation progression of students were highly correlated with the educational objective

and determination of students to enroll and earn applicable hours toward their degree

programs. Students who enter university declaring a major are assumed to have chosen

their academic area on the basis of accurate and realistic information about themselves,

degree requirements, and occupational fields. However, if students delay choosing a major

field of study or are inclined to change their major frequently, prolonged time-to-degree

and lower efficiency in graduation progression will result. Therefore, undecided students

must be identified, studied, and analyzed to determine the factors contributing to their

attrition or retention. Identifying them immediately is crucial so that a series of activities

46

may be set in motion. The delivery system for advising undecided students must be

comprehensive in nature. An effective program is essential to monitor students’ progress

until they have chosen realistic and satisfying academic programs. Since students move

from one academic discipline to another, it is necessary to establish a university wide task

force to study graduation progression for students.

Programs for Transfer Students

It is a common myth that students who withdraw from university for extended

period of time are considered “flunkouts” and cannot meet the academic challenge.

Another myth is that they drop out for financial reasons. While finances are often given by

students as a reason for withdrawal, financial stress may be one among many

interdependent motivating factors. An important finding from this research shows that one

in four undergraduate degree recipients attended at least three different types of institutions

before degree completion, and nearly one in three undergraduate degree recipients stopped-

out for more than 12 months at least once in their academic careers. The occurrence of

hiatus seems to be positively associated with the number of institutional types attended.

Students dropping out from one institution may actually be new transfers to another

institution. The motivation for frequent transfer may be the fact that students do not believe

that the institution they left could meet their expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to

identify these students early on, and get them involved with campus programs that promote

their social and intellectual integration into the communities of the university which are

likely to strengthen their commitment and therefore reinforce persistence within the

institution.

47

True Cost of Baccalaureate Education

The 2003 U.S. Census Bureau statistics have shown that individuals with a

baccalaureate degree would expect to earn a median income of $49,000, an amount

$17,200 higher than individuals with a high school diploma. Also, throughout their

working lives, typical college graduates eventually earn about 73 percent more than typical

high school graduates (College Board, 2004). However, with the ever increasing tuition

and fees for the four-year universities, many students have chosen the options of attending

the cheaper two-year institutions, enrolling part-time, or stopping out frequently, to avoid

incurring the higher costs of attendance. Typically, these students will take longer than the

usual time to complete their degrees. However, the lower cost of attendance associated

with these enrollment options may be offset by the loss of higher potential income if

students could have achieved a baccalaureate degree credential in a timely manner.

Therefore, the true cost of baccalaureate education should take into account the

opportunity cost associated with longer time-to-degree and delayed entry into a higher

earning job market.

Academic Program Design

Since the industrial revolution, science and technologies have played a powerful

role in shaping the world’s economy. In recent decades, although the U.S. economy has

been shifting from a manufacturing based economy to a service and information based

market place, science and technologies continued to be the main component for running

the economic engine. Because almost all economic value in market economies is

ultimately created by human labor, an abundant supply of a well educated and diverse

48

workforce is the best indicator for economic growth. In the U.S., higher education has been

the primary institution to educate and train the nation’s workforce. Academic programs of

various disciplines are established with the intention of serving students by preparing them

for employment and serving industries by supplying them with trained workers. Because of

the expanded job market and potentially high earning careers, the engineering, physical

sciences, and technologies disciplines have been popular academic programs sought by

many students. However, the findings from this study have shown that the degree

recipients in these disciplines are more likely to take longer time-to-degree and achieve

lower efficiency (excess lifetime earned hours) than the students in other academic

disciplines. These findings have raised a question about the efficiency and effectiveness of

the science, engineering, and technology programs in training our nation’s workforce in

these areas. Do factors like gender and ethnicity of students as well as pre-college

preparation play a role in the timeliness and efficiency of graduation progression within

those disciplines? Do these academic disciplines require more years and credit hour

requirements beyond the current standards? To answer these questions, it is necessary for

faculty and academic planners to revisit the program design and curriculum for these

academic disciplines.

Measurements of Student Graduation Progression

The current federal and state systems require colleges and universities to publish

their four-year and six-year graduation rates at the baccalaureate level as part of the

institutional data reporting responsibility. These graduation rates have become the key

performance indicators to determine the efficiency and effectiveness of the institution.

49

However, these publicized rates are based on the traditional student attendance model—

students who began and completed their baccalaureate degrees at the same institution—and

ignore the fact that more and more students do not graduate from the same institution

where they began their postsecondary education. Consistent with the findings from other

existing national studies, this study shows that only a small portion of the baccalaureate

degree recipients included in this study began and completed their baccalaureate degrees at

the same institution. Therefore, the current four-year and six-year graduation rates are

increasingly less relevant in reflecting the true measure of student graduation progression

in the multi-institutional attendance environment. However, there is no simple answer to

address the issue of finding an appropriate measurement of graduation progression of

students. Nationally, it has been controversial to establish any state and national databases

to track students’ postsecondary attendance across institutions and state lines. With privacy

and other legal concerns, it is unlikely to have such data systems become reality in the near

future.

Recommendations for Future Research

As an exploratory study, the purpose of this research is to identify postsecondary

attendance patterns and report data as they are presented. The analysis of enrollment

patterns and time-to-degree for baccalaureate degree recipients could be expanded to

include more in-depth statistical analysis using regression to examine the influence of the

numerous academic and demographic variables that were available for this rich data set.

Supplemental analysis at other institutions would also be valuable to determine if the

results of this particular institution are characteristic of other large, public research

50

institutions within similar state structures for postsecondary higher education. To augment

the usefulness of this research, a number of additional areas of study are proposed as

follows:

(1) analysis of transcripts to identify the types of course taken at various types of

institutions, the timing of the course taken, and the academic disciplines which

the students are pursuing;

(2) identification of the relationship between academic performance, changing

majors, and other factors; and

(3) examination of the profile of student financial aid including loan indebtedness

and part-time employment in relation to postsecondary attendance patterns,

enrollment behavior and graduation progression.

Consideration should be given to expanding research for students who remain

actively pursuing their baccalaureate degrees. Specifically, the sample for the current study

was limited to students who successfully graduated. Little information is available on the

attendance patterns in relation to the demographic and academic variables for the

continuing students who have not yet earned their degrees. The results of the studies using

the two sets of students will provide a more complete picture of the attendance patterns and

graduation progression of students.

51

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