“EU Policy towards the Western Balkans”

Mr Branislav RadeljicGoldsmiths, University of London, UK

Language: English8 April 2009

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Disintegration of Yugoslavia 1/2

• Proliferation of academic writing

• “Academic debates on the Former Yugoslavia are as polarized as those surrounding the creation of Israel or the partitioning of Cyprus, with criticism of a study often depending more on whether the work supports the commentator’s predetermined position than on the coherence of its theory or the reliability and sufficiency of its arguments. When one side in such a conflict wins politically, it usually also wins academically, because analyses that indicate that a politics that won is, in fact, wrong tend to be discounted. Political hegemony establishes intellectual orthodoxy” (R. M. Hayden, 1999: 19)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Disintegration of Yugoslavia 2/2

• “… shocked the civilized West …” (S. Lucarelli, 2000: 1)

• “… the Europeans simply couldn’t believe that Yugoslavia was in serious trouble ...” (W. Zimmermann, 1996: 65)

• “… the EC was almost willy nilly sucked into the crisis ...” (M. Lak, 1992: 175)

• “… the hour for Europe has come … if one problem can be solved by the Europeans, it is the Yugoslav problem ...” (Jacques Poos, in M. Almond, 1994: 32)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Western Balkans

• Controversial term • Coined in 1992“to separate the instable Yugoslavian successor states from accession efforts on the part of Romania and Bulgaria” (G. Vobruba, 2006: 66) • MSs• WB issues: internal & external• Balkanization?• Europeanization?• Black Hole?

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Unemployment

(Source: Eurostat Compact Guide – Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries, 2008)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

GDP per capita, 2006 (EUR) (1)

(Source: Eurostat – Pocketbook on Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries, 2008)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Transnationalism in the Western Balkans

• Different actors involved (political elite, diasporas, media, religion)

• Negative transnationalism is a result of “the fortification of the shifting EU borders” (A. Hodzic, 2008: 27), => informal economy

• Who benefits from transnationalism?

• Can it be positive and how?

• Foreign involvement (from necessary to over-exaggerated)

• Role of civil society?

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Democratization 1/2

• Important components (R. P. Farkas, 2007: 19-23):

1.Value Consensus (leaders, media, Internet, EU, IMF, World Bank, education, religion)

2.Political Architecture (democratic governments, institutions, competitive market economy, efficient administration)

3.Effective Leadership (old vs. new leaders)

4.Confidence and Leadership (public input, turnover, transparency, compromise)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Democratization 2/2

• Six dimensions (R. P. Farkas, 2007):

1.Tolerance (religion, media, multiparty systems, nationalism, education, minority policies)

2.Obligation (searching for public sentiment, democracy)

3.Voice (participation, media, demonstrations)

4.Constraint (respect for opposition, issues characterizing transition of power, ‘checks and balances’)

5.Transparency (institutional limits, elite accountability, independent think tanks, media sustainability)

6.Legitimacy

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

EU vis-à-vis the Western Balkans 1/2

• “The future of the Western Balkans lies in the EU. The EU stresses the importance of peace, stability and security in this part of Europe, and welcomes all efforts of the Western Balkan countries to come closer to the EU, meeting the necessary conditions. The Western Balkans have the potential to accelerate their course towards eventual EU membership, provided they pursue the path of reform and reconciliation, and meet the necessary conditions. The EU will assist them in this endeavor” (COM 2008, 127 final, p. 21)

• The Western Balkans or state by state approach?

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

EU vis-à-vis the Western Balkans 2/2

(Source: Gallup Inc., 2009)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

EU Membership

Disputable issues

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Discussing the future: FAQ for both sides

Capacity?Cost?

Expectations?Time?

Right direction? EU

Willingness?

Steps?

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

Recommendations

• The EU should approach the Western Balkans as a region in its entirety, rather than state by state

• Conditioning => Frustration => Delays => Additional gaps

• “... the Balkans cannot escape their condition by becoming more European … their becoming more ‘European’ can only be expected to make them more ‘Balkan’...” (J. Allcock, 2000: 24)

• However, the future is an opportunity to break with the structures of the past and thus offers the potential to escape the strictures that bind human potential (R. W. Cox and T. J. Sinclair, 1996: 3)

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

References 1/2

• Allcock, J. B., Explaining Yugoslavia, London: C. Hurst & Co., 2000 • Almond, M., Europe’s Backyard War: The War in the Balkans, London: William Heinemann Ltd., 1994• Cox, R. W. & T. J. Sinclair (eds), Approaches to world order, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996• European Commission, Western Balkans: Enhancing the European Perspective, COM (2008) 127 final, Brussels, 2008• Farkas, R. P., Democratization in the Balkans: Prescription for a Badly Scarred Body Politic, Boston, MA: Northeastern University Press, 2007 • Hayden, R. M., Blueprints for a House Divided: The Constitutional Logic of the Yugoslav Conflicts, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1999• Hodzic, A. A., “The Balkan Merchants: Changing Borders and Informal Transnationalism,” in D. Kostovicova & V. Bojicic-Dzelilovic, Transnationalism in the Balkans, London: Routledge, 2008

Branislav Radeljic, 2009.

References 2/2

• Lak, M., “The Involvement of the European Community in the Yugoslav Crisis during 1991” in M. van den Hauvel & J. G. Siccama (eds), The Disintegration of Yugoslavia, Amsterdam, Atlanta, GA: Rodopi, 1992• Lucarelli, S., Europe and the Breakup of Yugoslavia: A Political Failure in Search of a Scholarly Explanation, Leiden: Brill, 2000• Vobruba G., “Internal Dynamics and Foreign Relations of the European Union,” in M. Bach, C. Lahusen & G. Vobruba (eds), Europe in Motion, Berlin: Sigma, 2006 • Zimmermann, W., Origins of a Catastrophe: Yugoslavia and Its Destroyers, New York, NY: Times Books, 1996

Thank you for your attention!