evaluation of the country towns water supply and sewerage
TRANSCRIPT
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program January 2016
This publication is part of a series summarising program evaluations to enhance the accountability and
transparency of NSW Department of Industry activities The completed program evaluation template is
attached
The Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
The Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage (CTWSS) Program provides assistance to Local Water
Utilities (LWUs) that provide public water supply and sewerage services to regional areas of NSW outside
the areas of operation of Sydney Water and Hunter Water The two key functions of the program are to
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) oversee and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
provide financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
Objective
In the absence of government intervention there would be an underinvestment in safe water supply and
sewerage services in regional towns due to the lack of economies of scale remoteness and the small
population base Unsafe water supply and sewerage services may result in adverse health outcomes
which generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses and costs
to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public health costs and
associated productivity losses This represents a benefit to the community from the investment in safe
water supply and sewerage services
The objective of the CTWSS Program is therefore to work with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable
cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which
meet community needs protect public health by meeting the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and
protect the environment by meeting the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) sewage treatment works
licence conditions
This objective is consistent with NSW2021 Goal 21 - Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Programrdquo It is also consistent with the NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan
Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Programrdquo
Options
The alternative options for pursuing the objective that were considered in the evaluation of the CTWSS
Program included
the existing program with a total budget (over the 4 year Treasury Cycle) of approximately $976 million (due to sun-set in 2017-18)
extending the existing program to enable it to complete 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects The proposed budget for this Option would be an additional $110 million over a 5 year period (a net present value of approximately $90 million) and
broadening the existing program to address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies in regional towns The extension would be up to 11 years with a yet to be determined cost
Assessment
NSW Department of Industry program evaluations compare the efficiency and effectiveness of alternative
options with that of the existing or proposed program This involves an assessment of the costs and
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
benefits of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo and where these benefits and costs have
been quantified a comparison of the net benefit and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of each option
Quantitative analysis has convincingly demonstrated that both Option 1 and Option 2 provide benefits to
the community in excess of their costs The preferred option was Option 2 extending of the existing
CTWSS Program for a further 5 years to 2022 Option 2 would continue to provide expert advice technical
support and training to LWUs and financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of 71 remaining
unfunded water and sewerage backlog projects
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and
environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis
of its likely costs and benefits
Cost recovery
The evaluation assessed the existing program pricing arrangements relative to the cost recovery
principles outlined by the Productivity Commission in its 2001 Inquiry Report on Cost Recovery by
Government Agencies The evaluation found that the provision of technical support and financial
assistance is in response to the positive externalities from providing strategic planning expert technical
advice and the achievement of desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the existing program indicates that
this program should continue to not be cost recovered This finding would likewise apply to Option 2
Performance Measures
Key performance measures and indicators measure program performance and progress towards meeting
government policy objectives They demonstrate how effective a program is in producing the required
outputs and achieving the desired outcomes
A number of output and outcome performance measures are proposed for the CTWSS Program These
measures are based on achieving the prescribed positive externalities (due to the public good market
failure) of providing assistance to LWUs to achieve minimum water related health standards through
effective and efficient service provision Examples of the Programs outcome measures and indicators
include the
water supply coverage () and sewerage coverage () in regional NSW
number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program
proportion of LWU microbiological samples complying with Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and
proportion of urban population in regional NSW with an Australian Drinking Water Guidelines compliant public drinking water supply
Future Evaluations
This is the first evaluation of the CTWSS Program as part of the regular Departmental cycle of evaluations
informed by the NSW Government Evaluation Framework As such the evaluation concentrated on the
qualitative aspects of lsquoformativersquo evaluation to build the capacity of program management to monitor
programrsquos performance in the future ndash problem identification program logic and performance measure
design Data collection continues to enable quantitative lsquosummativersquo evaluation of the Program when it is
next scheduled for evaluation under the Framework
More information
Further information on the CTWSS Program can be obtained from
DPI Water Postal address NSW DPI Locked Bag 5123 Parramatta NSW 2124 Phone 1800 353 104 Email waterenquiriesdpinswgovau Website httpwwwwaternswgovauurban-watercountry-town-water
INT1652743 copy State of New South Wales through the NSW Department of Industry Skills and Regional Development 2016 You may copy distribute
and otherwise freely deal with this publication for any purpose provided that you attribute the NSW Department of Industry Skills and Regional
Development as the owner
Disclaimer The information contained in this publication is based on knowledge and understanding at the time of writing (January 2015) However
because of advances in knowledge users are reminded of the need to ensure that information upon which they rely is up to date and to check currency
of the information with the appropriate officer of the NSW Department of Industry Skills and Regional Development or the userrsquos independent advisor
2 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Attachment Program Evaluation Template
Division Primary Industries (Water)
Program (Current) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 1 - Issue or Challenge and Objectives
a Describe the issue or challenge that the program aims to address That is why should the department intervene What would happen in the absence of the program
Without safe and secure urban water supply and sewerage services water-borne diseases
like gastroenteritis are more prevalent and can result in potentially fatal adverse health
impacts The high level of public health protection and environmental benefits resulting from
sound water supply and sewerage services is universally recognised and is the driver for
investment in such infrastructure by many governments
As urban water supply and sewerage is the most capital intensive industry in a western
economy the lack of economies of scale remoteness and the small population base make
servicing rural towns unaffordable without significant government financial assistance
b Identify the groups that would be affected by the issue or challenge without departmental involvement (individuals industry or community)
1 Water users without adequate safe secure water supply and sewerage services would continue to be at risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
2 Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW could not afford to provide safe water supply and sewerage services to all eligible communities
3 The NSW community would continue to incur the public health and environmental costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water pollution prevention measures and water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
4 Businesses in country NSW towns would incur increased business costs and reduced competitiveness Regional areas would become less attractive for employers to set up operations which would discourage decentralisation
5 NSW country towns would become a less attractive destination to visitors especially overnight visitors as high operating cost would make regional areas a more expensive tourism destination
c Quantify the impact of the issue in the absence of departmental involvement - the severity of the issue should be demonstrated with quantitative data where possible on the significance and consequences of the issue or challenge in the absence of departmental involvement If no such lsquocostrsquo estimate exists proxy information can be provided to give an indication of potential lsquoscalersquo such as industry value of production
In the absence of departmental involvement over 320 water supply and sewerage projects
which have delivered enhanced public health environment and security of supply outcomes
to over one million people living in country NSW would not have been built As a result
approximately one million people across NSW would have substandard water supply and
sewerage systems that would not meet the 2011 Australian Drinking Water Guidelines
(ADWG) or the NSW Environment Protection Authorityrsquos sewage treatment license
requirements
3 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
The benefit of an intervention that improves the safety of water supply and sewerage
systems is reflected in a reduced incidence rate of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
which in turn leads reduced expenditure on healthcare reduced productivity losses with
respect to work school attendance and household activities and a reduced cost of mortality
A recent Trade amp Investment Cost-Benefit (CBA) Analysis study (Appendix C) found that the
total avoided cost in NSW from reduced gastroenteritis cases was estimated to be $957 per
case in 2013-14 prices1 This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per
year yields the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with
improved water and sewerage systems (solely from reduced cases of gastroenteritis) would
be a reduction in total costs of $303 per head of population covered by each project
Further it could be expected that tourism operators and other businesses (related to or
reliant on tourism) in country NSW towns would suffer in the absence of government
intervention NSW country towns could become a less attractive destination to visitors
especially overnight visitors as high operating costs would make regional areas a more
expensive tourism destination Also the reduced provision of safe water facilities may act to
reduce the competitiveness of businesses as regional areas would become less attractive for
employers to set up operations
In total the Trade amp Investment CBA reveals that a potential avoided cost for future projects
of $174 million (net present value) could be achieved by pursuing an option involving
government intervention This value has been calculated including health impacts the
management and replacement costs of the existing water and sewerage infrastructure and
the estimated household expenditure involved in securing their own safe water supply or
sewerage disposal
Further Evidence supporting the Impact of absence of a CTWSS Program or similar
Possible impacts of the absence of the CTWSS Program are illustrated by the following
Walkerton Ontario Canada where 7 people died and half of the townrsquos population of 4000 were severely ill as a result of faecal contamination of the public water supply This had a major impact for the province of Ontario where a total remedial expenditure of $500 million was required2
Tasmania where over 20 towns had permanent boil water alerts most water suppliers did not have pay for use pricing or full cost recovery and there is minimal public reporting of water utility performance
Queensland where water supply and sewerage services provided by over 70 councils have minimal public reporting of drinking water quality water supply tariffs or cost recovery There is significant evidence of poor drinking water quality and of poorly coordinated major capital investments due to the absence of the Section 60 type approval processes3 and strategic business planning and integrated water cycle management (IWCM) strategies
The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage Program (May 2015) found that the Program
has helped improve the performance of LWUs
1 NSW Trade amp Investment (2014) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program Cost-Benefit Analysis
of Unfunded Backlog Projects Unpublished October 2014 (Appendix C) 2
Dr Steve Hrudey ndash Water and Public Health Workshop Sydney 11 May 2006 26 February 2015 3
The independent Section 60 reviews by the NSW Office of Water provides assurance that any proposed LWU water and sewage treatment works or dams are safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective Such infrastructure provides a robust soundly based solution without wasteful lsquogold platingrsquo
4 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
has effectively promoted adoption of better management practices by LWUs
has made a financial contribution to the building of water supply and sewerage infrastructure in country towns
has reduced the 1996 backlog of projects and
has targeted only genuine backlog works and that these projects were fit-for-purpose
Page 23 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report is shown in Appendix A on page 21
In addition page 26 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report states that
lsquoFeedback from LWUs to the audit was that they found the performance monitoring and reporting particularly the benchmarking useful in identifying improvement opportunities
The Productivity Commission (2011) has also commended NOW (NSW Office of Water) for its data-auditing approach
In 2013 NOW commissioned an audit of the NSW performance monitoring system to assess its effectiveness in mitigating high inherent risks related to
and Sewerage Framework
contamination or pollution
The audit found that the system appears to be effective in mitigating these risksrsquo
d Describe who or what created the issue or challenge Examples include specific industry participants (such as producers or consumers) and environmental factors (such as the effect of climate change)
The benefits of safe water supply and sewerage services are universally recognised
However due to the lack of economies of scale and remoteness the cost per premises is
much higher for regional communities As a consequence there is no incentive for private
providers or local councils to invest in water and sewerage infrastructure because of the
prohibitively high capital cost and improbability of being able to recover these costs from the
residents This has resulted in many of these communities missing out on the collective
provision of safe water supply and sewerage services due largely to the high cost per
premises of installing the required infrastructure
e List current programs or legal instruments (provided by industry or any level of government) which aim to address the issue or challenge Could these be altered to address the issue or challenge
Other Programs Able to be altered
Sydney Water and Hunter Water Service the metropolitan areas of the Sydney and Hunter Regions in accordance with their Acts
Yes although impractical the Acts could be altered to give Sydney Water and Hunter Water responsibility for all non-metropolitan urban areas of NSW
Local Government Under DPI Waterrsquos Best Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework LWUs (ie Local Government) are required to achieve best practice provision including the determination of service and pricing levels based on long term strategic business planning and full cost recovery principles
No ndash Local Government does not have the required resources to fund the required infrastructure nor provide the appropriate coordinated planning pricing and technical expertise to achieve these outcomes
5 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
There are no other current Programs within State Government that specifically provide the services and support that the CTWSS Program delivers
Not applicable
f Identify who might benefit if action [such as the program being evaluated] is taken by the department
Who are the primary beneficiaries
Water users currently without adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services (but who would receive adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services as a result of the program) would benefit from a reduced risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Who else might benefit
The NSW community would benefit from lower public health costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Water utilities in regional NSW would benefit from providing safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
Towns in regional NSW would benefit from becoming more attractive destinations for visitors residents and businesses after gaining safe water supplies and sewerage services
Industries dependant on water services (eg fisheries oyster hatcheries regional development)
61 discrete Aboriginal communities also benefit from improved water and sewerage infrastructure under the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program as that Program is serviced by technical specialists from the CTWSS Program
g Determine whether there might be a role for the department in addressing the perceived issue or challenge ndash ie what high-level objectives might a potential program achieve
Objective Working with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure
water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community
needs protect public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
Policy Alignment
a NSW 2021 goal4
NSW2021 Goal 21 ldquoSecure potable water suppliesrdquo Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country
Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and
sewerage services including administering funding for priority water and sewerage
infrastructure providing emergency drought assistance reviewing performance of utilities
and advising on improved operation of utilities managing dams weirs and water and sewage
treatment facilitiesrdquo
a NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan outcome
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ldquoPositive business environment in NSWrdquo Outcome 5
ldquoEnergy and regional water supplies and services are reliable efficient and sustainablerdquo
Strategy 1 ldquoRegulate and monitor regional water supplies to meet reliability and performance
standards for water continuity and qualityrdquo and Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and sewerage
servicesrdquo
NSW State Priorities (NSW Making it Happen) have since replaced NSW 2021
6 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
4
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
benefits of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo and where these benefits and costs have
been quantified a comparison of the net benefit and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of each option
Quantitative analysis has convincingly demonstrated that both Option 1 and Option 2 provide benefits to
the community in excess of their costs The preferred option was Option 2 extending of the existing
CTWSS Program for a further 5 years to 2022 Option 2 would continue to provide expert advice technical
support and training to LWUs and financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of 71 remaining
unfunded water and sewerage backlog projects
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and
environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis
of its likely costs and benefits
Cost recovery
The evaluation assessed the existing program pricing arrangements relative to the cost recovery
principles outlined by the Productivity Commission in its 2001 Inquiry Report on Cost Recovery by
Government Agencies The evaluation found that the provision of technical support and financial
assistance is in response to the positive externalities from providing strategic planning expert technical
advice and the achievement of desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the existing program indicates that
this program should continue to not be cost recovered This finding would likewise apply to Option 2
Performance Measures
Key performance measures and indicators measure program performance and progress towards meeting
government policy objectives They demonstrate how effective a program is in producing the required
outputs and achieving the desired outcomes
A number of output and outcome performance measures are proposed for the CTWSS Program These
measures are based on achieving the prescribed positive externalities (due to the public good market
failure) of providing assistance to LWUs to achieve minimum water related health standards through
effective and efficient service provision Examples of the Programs outcome measures and indicators
include the
water supply coverage () and sewerage coverage () in regional NSW
number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program
proportion of LWU microbiological samples complying with Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and
proportion of urban population in regional NSW with an Australian Drinking Water Guidelines compliant public drinking water supply
Future Evaluations
This is the first evaluation of the CTWSS Program as part of the regular Departmental cycle of evaluations
informed by the NSW Government Evaluation Framework As such the evaluation concentrated on the
qualitative aspects of lsquoformativersquo evaluation to build the capacity of program management to monitor
programrsquos performance in the future ndash problem identification program logic and performance measure
design Data collection continues to enable quantitative lsquosummativersquo evaluation of the Program when it is
next scheduled for evaluation under the Framework
More information
Further information on the CTWSS Program can be obtained from
DPI Water Postal address NSW DPI Locked Bag 5123 Parramatta NSW 2124 Phone 1800 353 104 Email waterenquiriesdpinswgovau Website httpwwwwaternswgovauurban-watercountry-town-water
INT1652743 copy State of New South Wales through the NSW Department of Industry Skills and Regional Development 2016 You may copy distribute
and otherwise freely deal with this publication for any purpose provided that you attribute the NSW Department of Industry Skills and Regional
Development as the owner
Disclaimer The information contained in this publication is based on knowledge and understanding at the time of writing (January 2015) However
because of advances in knowledge users are reminded of the need to ensure that information upon which they rely is up to date and to check currency
of the information with the appropriate officer of the NSW Department of Industry Skills and Regional Development or the userrsquos independent advisor
2 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Attachment Program Evaluation Template
Division Primary Industries (Water)
Program (Current) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 1 - Issue or Challenge and Objectives
a Describe the issue or challenge that the program aims to address That is why should the department intervene What would happen in the absence of the program
Without safe and secure urban water supply and sewerage services water-borne diseases
like gastroenteritis are more prevalent and can result in potentially fatal adverse health
impacts The high level of public health protection and environmental benefits resulting from
sound water supply and sewerage services is universally recognised and is the driver for
investment in such infrastructure by many governments
As urban water supply and sewerage is the most capital intensive industry in a western
economy the lack of economies of scale remoteness and the small population base make
servicing rural towns unaffordable without significant government financial assistance
b Identify the groups that would be affected by the issue or challenge without departmental involvement (individuals industry or community)
1 Water users without adequate safe secure water supply and sewerage services would continue to be at risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
2 Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW could not afford to provide safe water supply and sewerage services to all eligible communities
3 The NSW community would continue to incur the public health and environmental costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water pollution prevention measures and water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
4 Businesses in country NSW towns would incur increased business costs and reduced competitiveness Regional areas would become less attractive for employers to set up operations which would discourage decentralisation
5 NSW country towns would become a less attractive destination to visitors especially overnight visitors as high operating cost would make regional areas a more expensive tourism destination
c Quantify the impact of the issue in the absence of departmental involvement - the severity of the issue should be demonstrated with quantitative data where possible on the significance and consequences of the issue or challenge in the absence of departmental involvement If no such lsquocostrsquo estimate exists proxy information can be provided to give an indication of potential lsquoscalersquo such as industry value of production
In the absence of departmental involvement over 320 water supply and sewerage projects
which have delivered enhanced public health environment and security of supply outcomes
to over one million people living in country NSW would not have been built As a result
approximately one million people across NSW would have substandard water supply and
sewerage systems that would not meet the 2011 Australian Drinking Water Guidelines
(ADWG) or the NSW Environment Protection Authorityrsquos sewage treatment license
requirements
3 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
The benefit of an intervention that improves the safety of water supply and sewerage
systems is reflected in a reduced incidence rate of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
which in turn leads reduced expenditure on healthcare reduced productivity losses with
respect to work school attendance and household activities and a reduced cost of mortality
A recent Trade amp Investment Cost-Benefit (CBA) Analysis study (Appendix C) found that the
total avoided cost in NSW from reduced gastroenteritis cases was estimated to be $957 per
case in 2013-14 prices1 This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per
year yields the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with
improved water and sewerage systems (solely from reduced cases of gastroenteritis) would
be a reduction in total costs of $303 per head of population covered by each project
Further it could be expected that tourism operators and other businesses (related to or
reliant on tourism) in country NSW towns would suffer in the absence of government
intervention NSW country towns could become a less attractive destination to visitors
especially overnight visitors as high operating costs would make regional areas a more
expensive tourism destination Also the reduced provision of safe water facilities may act to
reduce the competitiveness of businesses as regional areas would become less attractive for
employers to set up operations
In total the Trade amp Investment CBA reveals that a potential avoided cost for future projects
of $174 million (net present value) could be achieved by pursuing an option involving
government intervention This value has been calculated including health impacts the
management and replacement costs of the existing water and sewerage infrastructure and
the estimated household expenditure involved in securing their own safe water supply or
sewerage disposal
Further Evidence supporting the Impact of absence of a CTWSS Program or similar
Possible impacts of the absence of the CTWSS Program are illustrated by the following
Walkerton Ontario Canada where 7 people died and half of the townrsquos population of 4000 were severely ill as a result of faecal contamination of the public water supply This had a major impact for the province of Ontario where a total remedial expenditure of $500 million was required2
Tasmania where over 20 towns had permanent boil water alerts most water suppliers did not have pay for use pricing or full cost recovery and there is minimal public reporting of water utility performance
Queensland where water supply and sewerage services provided by over 70 councils have minimal public reporting of drinking water quality water supply tariffs or cost recovery There is significant evidence of poor drinking water quality and of poorly coordinated major capital investments due to the absence of the Section 60 type approval processes3 and strategic business planning and integrated water cycle management (IWCM) strategies
The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage Program (May 2015) found that the Program
has helped improve the performance of LWUs
1 NSW Trade amp Investment (2014) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program Cost-Benefit Analysis
of Unfunded Backlog Projects Unpublished October 2014 (Appendix C) 2
Dr Steve Hrudey ndash Water and Public Health Workshop Sydney 11 May 2006 26 February 2015 3
The independent Section 60 reviews by the NSW Office of Water provides assurance that any proposed LWU water and sewage treatment works or dams are safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective Such infrastructure provides a robust soundly based solution without wasteful lsquogold platingrsquo
4 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
has effectively promoted adoption of better management practices by LWUs
has made a financial contribution to the building of water supply and sewerage infrastructure in country towns
has reduced the 1996 backlog of projects and
has targeted only genuine backlog works and that these projects were fit-for-purpose
Page 23 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report is shown in Appendix A on page 21
In addition page 26 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report states that
lsquoFeedback from LWUs to the audit was that they found the performance monitoring and reporting particularly the benchmarking useful in identifying improvement opportunities
The Productivity Commission (2011) has also commended NOW (NSW Office of Water) for its data-auditing approach
In 2013 NOW commissioned an audit of the NSW performance monitoring system to assess its effectiveness in mitigating high inherent risks related to
and Sewerage Framework
contamination or pollution
The audit found that the system appears to be effective in mitigating these risksrsquo
d Describe who or what created the issue or challenge Examples include specific industry participants (such as producers or consumers) and environmental factors (such as the effect of climate change)
The benefits of safe water supply and sewerage services are universally recognised
However due to the lack of economies of scale and remoteness the cost per premises is
much higher for regional communities As a consequence there is no incentive for private
providers or local councils to invest in water and sewerage infrastructure because of the
prohibitively high capital cost and improbability of being able to recover these costs from the
residents This has resulted in many of these communities missing out on the collective
provision of safe water supply and sewerage services due largely to the high cost per
premises of installing the required infrastructure
e List current programs or legal instruments (provided by industry or any level of government) which aim to address the issue or challenge Could these be altered to address the issue or challenge
Other Programs Able to be altered
Sydney Water and Hunter Water Service the metropolitan areas of the Sydney and Hunter Regions in accordance with their Acts
Yes although impractical the Acts could be altered to give Sydney Water and Hunter Water responsibility for all non-metropolitan urban areas of NSW
Local Government Under DPI Waterrsquos Best Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework LWUs (ie Local Government) are required to achieve best practice provision including the determination of service and pricing levels based on long term strategic business planning and full cost recovery principles
No ndash Local Government does not have the required resources to fund the required infrastructure nor provide the appropriate coordinated planning pricing and technical expertise to achieve these outcomes
5 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
There are no other current Programs within State Government that specifically provide the services and support that the CTWSS Program delivers
Not applicable
f Identify who might benefit if action [such as the program being evaluated] is taken by the department
Who are the primary beneficiaries
Water users currently without adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services (but who would receive adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services as a result of the program) would benefit from a reduced risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Who else might benefit
The NSW community would benefit from lower public health costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Water utilities in regional NSW would benefit from providing safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
Towns in regional NSW would benefit from becoming more attractive destinations for visitors residents and businesses after gaining safe water supplies and sewerage services
Industries dependant on water services (eg fisheries oyster hatcheries regional development)
61 discrete Aboriginal communities also benefit from improved water and sewerage infrastructure under the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program as that Program is serviced by technical specialists from the CTWSS Program
g Determine whether there might be a role for the department in addressing the perceived issue or challenge ndash ie what high-level objectives might a potential program achieve
Objective Working with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure
water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community
needs protect public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
Policy Alignment
a NSW 2021 goal4
NSW2021 Goal 21 ldquoSecure potable water suppliesrdquo Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country
Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and
sewerage services including administering funding for priority water and sewerage
infrastructure providing emergency drought assistance reviewing performance of utilities
and advising on improved operation of utilities managing dams weirs and water and sewage
treatment facilitiesrdquo
a NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan outcome
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ldquoPositive business environment in NSWrdquo Outcome 5
ldquoEnergy and regional water supplies and services are reliable efficient and sustainablerdquo
Strategy 1 ldquoRegulate and monitor regional water supplies to meet reliability and performance
standards for water continuity and qualityrdquo and Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and sewerage
servicesrdquo
NSW State Priorities (NSW Making it Happen) have since replaced NSW 2021
6 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
4
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Attachment Program Evaluation Template
Division Primary Industries (Water)
Program (Current) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 1 - Issue or Challenge and Objectives
a Describe the issue or challenge that the program aims to address That is why should the department intervene What would happen in the absence of the program
Without safe and secure urban water supply and sewerage services water-borne diseases
like gastroenteritis are more prevalent and can result in potentially fatal adverse health
impacts The high level of public health protection and environmental benefits resulting from
sound water supply and sewerage services is universally recognised and is the driver for
investment in such infrastructure by many governments
As urban water supply and sewerage is the most capital intensive industry in a western
economy the lack of economies of scale remoteness and the small population base make
servicing rural towns unaffordable without significant government financial assistance
b Identify the groups that would be affected by the issue or challenge without departmental involvement (individuals industry or community)
1 Water users without adequate safe secure water supply and sewerage services would continue to be at risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
2 Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW could not afford to provide safe water supply and sewerage services to all eligible communities
3 The NSW community would continue to incur the public health and environmental costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water pollution prevention measures and water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
4 Businesses in country NSW towns would incur increased business costs and reduced competitiveness Regional areas would become less attractive for employers to set up operations which would discourage decentralisation
5 NSW country towns would become a less attractive destination to visitors especially overnight visitors as high operating cost would make regional areas a more expensive tourism destination
c Quantify the impact of the issue in the absence of departmental involvement - the severity of the issue should be demonstrated with quantitative data where possible on the significance and consequences of the issue or challenge in the absence of departmental involvement If no such lsquocostrsquo estimate exists proxy information can be provided to give an indication of potential lsquoscalersquo such as industry value of production
In the absence of departmental involvement over 320 water supply and sewerage projects
which have delivered enhanced public health environment and security of supply outcomes
to over one million people living in country NSW would not have been built As a result
approximately one million people across NSW would have substandard water supply and
sewerage systems that would not meet the 2011 Australian Drinking Water Guidelines
(ADWG) or the NSW Environment Protection Authorityrsquos sewage treatment license
requirements
3 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
The benefit of an intervention that improves the safety of water supply and sewerage
systems is reflected in a reduced incidence rate of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
which in turn leads reduced expenditure on healthcare reduced productivity losses with
respect to work school attendance and household activities and a reduced cost of mortality
A recent Trade amp Investment Cost-Benefit (CBA) Analysis study (Appendix C) found that the
total avoided cost in NSW from reduced gastroenteritis cases was estimated to be $957 per
case in 2013-14 prices1 This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per
year yields the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with
improved water and sewerage systems (solely from reduced cases of gastroenteritis) would
be a reduction in total costs of $303 per head of population covered by each project
Further it could be expected that tourism operators and other businesses (related to or
reliant on tourism) in country NSW towns would suffer in the absence of government
intervention NSW country towns could become a less attractive destination to visitors
especially overnight visitors as high operating costs would make regional areas a more
expensive tourism destination Also the reduced provision of safe water facilities may act to
reduce the competitiveness of businesses as regional areas would become less attractive for
employers to set up operations
In total the Trade amp Investment CBA reveals that a potential avoided cost for future projects
of $174 million (net present value) could be achieved by pursuing an option involving
government intervention This value has been calculated including health impacts the
management and replacement costs of the existing water and sewerage infrastructure and
the estimated household expenditure involved in securing their own safe water supply or
sewerage disposal
Further Evidence supporting the Impact of absence of a CTWSS Program or similar
Possible impacts of the absence of the CTWSS Program are illustrated by the following
Walkerton Ontario Canada where 7 people died and half of the townrsquos population of 4000 were severely ill as a result of faecal contamination of the public water supply This had a major impact for the province of Ontario where a total remedial expenditure of $500 million was required2
Tasmania where over 20 towns had permanent boil water alerts most water suppliers did not have pay for use pricing or full cost recovery and there is minimal public reporting of water utility performance
Queensland where water supply and sewerage services provided by over 70 councils have minimal public reporting of drinking water quality water supply tariffs or cost recovery There is significant evidence of poor drinking water quality and of poorly coordinated major capital investments due to the absence of the Section 60 type approval processes3 and strategic business planning and integrated water cycle management (IWCM) strategies
The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage Program (May 2015) found that the Program
has helped improve the performance of LWUs
1 NSW Trade amp Investment (2014) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program Cost-Benefit Analysis
of Unfunded Backlog Projects Unpublished October 2014 (Appendix C) 2
Dr Steve Hrudey ndash Water and Public Health Workshop Sydney 11 May 2006 26 February 2015 3
The independent Section 60 reviews by the NSW Office of Water provides assurance that any proposed LWU water and sewage treatment works or dams are safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective Such infrastructure provides a robust soundly based solution without wasteful lsquogold platingrsquo
4 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
has effectively promoted adoption of better management practices by LWUs
has made a financial contribution to the building of water supply and sewerage infrastructure in country towns
has reduced the 1996 backlog of projects and
has targeted only genuine backlog works and that these projects were fit-for-purpose
Page 23 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report is shown in Appendix A on page 21
In addition page 26 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report states that
lsquoFeedback from LWUs to the audit was that they found the performance monitoring and reporting particularly the benchmarking useful in identifying improvement opportunities
The Productivity Commission (2011) has also commended NOW (NSW Office of Water) for its data-auditing approach
In 2013 NOW commissioned an audit of the NSW performance monitoring system to assess its effectiveness in mitigating high inherent risks related to
and Sewerage Framework
contamination or pollution
The audit found that the system appears to be effective in mitigating these risksrsquo
d Describe who or what created the issue or challenge Examples include specific industry participants (such as producers or consumers) and environmental factors (such as the effect of climate change)
The benefits of safe water supply and sewerage services are universally recognised
However due to the lack of economies of scale and remoteness the cost per premises is
much higher for regional communities As a consequence there is no incentive for private
providers or local councils to invest in water and sewerage infrastructure because of the
prohibitively high capital cost and improbability of being able to recover these costs from the
residents This has resulted in many of these communities missing out on the collective
provision of safe water supply and sewerage services due largely to the high cost per
premises of installing the required infrastructure
e List current programs or legal instruments (provided by industry or any level of government) which aim to address the issue or challenge Could these be altered to address the issue or challenge
Other Programs Able to be altered
Sydney Water and Hunter Water Service the metropolitan areas of the Sydney and Hunter Regions in accordance with their Acts
Yes although impractical the Acts could be altered to give Sydney Water and Hunter Water responsibility for all non-metropolitan urban areas of NSW
Local Government Under DPI Waterrsquos Best Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework LWUs (ie Local Government) are required to achieve best practice provision including the determination of service and pricing levels based on long term strategic business planning and full cost recovery principles
No ndash Local Government does not have the required resources to fund the required infrastructure nor provide the appropriate coordinated planning pricing and technical expertise to achieve these outcomes
5 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
There are no other current Programs within State Government that specifically provide the services and support that the CTWSS Program delivers
Not applicable
f Identify who might benefit if action [such as the program being evaluated] is taken by the department
Who are the primary beneficiaries
Water users currently without adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services (but who would receive adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services as a result of the program) would benefit from a reduced risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Who else might benefit
The NSW community would benefit from lower public health costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Water utilities in regional NSW would benefit from providing safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
Towns in regional NSW would benefit from becoming more attractive destinations for visitors residents and businesses after gaining safe water supplies and sewerage services
Industries dependant on water services (eg fisheries oyster hatcheries regional development)
61 discrete Aboriginal communities also benefit from improved water and sewerage infrastructure under the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program as that Program is serviced by technical specialists from the CTWSS Program
g Determine whether there might be a role for the department in addressing the perceived issue or challenge ndash ie what high-level objectives might a potential program achieve
Objective Working with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure
water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community
needs protect public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
Policy Alignment
a NSW 2021 goal4
NSW2021 Goal 21 ldquoSecure potable water suppliesrdquo Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country
Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and
sewerage services including administering funding for priority water and sewerage
infrastructure providing emergency drought assistance reviewing performance of utilities
and advising on improved operation of utilities managing dams weirs and water and sewage
treatment facilitiesrdquo
a NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan outcome
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ldquoPositive business environment in NSWrdquo Outcome 5
ldquoEnergy and regional water supplies and services are reliable efficient and sustainablerdquo
Strategy 1 ldquoRegulate and monitor regional water supplies to meet reliability and performance
standards for water continuity and qualityrdquo and Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and sewerage
servicesrdquo
NSW State Priorities (NSW Making it Happen) have since replaced NSW 2021
6 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
4
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
The benefit of an intervention that improves the safety of water supply and sewerage
systems is reflected in a reduced incidence rate of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
which in turn leads reduced expenditure on healthcare reduced productivity losses with
respect to work school attendance and household activities and a reduced cost of mortality
A recent Trade amp Investment Cost-Benefit (CBA) Analysis study (Appendix C) found that the
total avoided cost in NSW from reduced gastroenteritis cases was estimated to be $957 per
case in 2013-14 prices1 This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per
year yields the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with
improved water and sewerage systems (solely from reduced cases of gastroenteritis) would
be a reduction in total costs of $303 per head of population covered by each project
Further it could be expected that tourism operators and other businesses (related to or
reliant on tourism) in country NSW towns would suffer in the absence of government
intervention NSW country towns could become a less attractive destination to visitors
especially overnight visitors as high operating costs would make regional areas a more
expensive tourism destination Also the reduced provision of safe water facilities may act to
reduce the competitiveness of businesses as regional areas would become less attractive for
employers to set up operations
In total the Trade amp Investment CBA reveals that a potential avoided cost for future projects
of $174 million (net present value) could be achieved by pursuing an option involving
government intervention This value has been calculated including health impacts the
management and replacement costs of the existing water and sewerage infrastructure and
the estimated household expenditure involved in securing their own safe water supply or
sewerage disposal
Further Evidence supporting the Impact of absence of a CTWSS Program or similar
Possible impacts of the absence of the CTWSS Program are illustrated by the following
Walkerton Ontario Canada where 7 people died and half of the townrsquos population of 4000 were severely ill as a result of faecal contamination of the public water supply This had a major impact for the province of Ontario where a total remedial expenditure of $500 million was required2
Tasmania where over 20 towns had permanent boil water alerts most water suppliers did not have pay for use pricing or full cost recovery and there is minimal public reporting of water utility performance
Queensland where water supply and sewerage services provided by over 70 councils have minimal public reporting of drinking water quality water supply tariffs or cost recovery There is significant evidence of poor drinking water quality and of poorly coordinated major capital investments due to the absence of the Section 60 type approval processes3 and strategic business planning and integrated water cycle management (IWCM) strategies
The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage Program (May 2015) found that the Program
has helped improve the performance of LWUs
1 NSW Trade amp Investment (2014) Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program Cost-Benefit Analysis
of Unfunded Backlog Projects Unpublished October 2014 (Appendix C) 2
Dr Steve Hrudey ndash Water and Public Health Workshop Sydney 11 May 2006 26 February 2015 3
The independent Section 60 reviews by the NSW Office of Water provides assurance that any proposed LWU water and sewage treatment works or dams are safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective Such infrastructure provides a robust soundly based solution without wasteful lsquogold platingrsquo
4 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
has effectively promoted adoption of better management practices by LWUs
has made a financial contribution to the building of water supply and sewerage infrastructure in country towns
has reduced the 1996 backlog of projects and
has targeted only genuine backlog works and that these projects were fit-for-purpose
Page 23 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report is shown in Appendix A on page 21
In addition page 26 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report states that
lsquoFeedback from LWUs to the audit was that they found the performance monitoring and reporting particularly the benchmarking useful in identifying improvement opportunities
The Productivity Commission (2011) has also commended NOW (NSW Office of Water) for its data-auditing approach
In 2013 NOW commissioned an audit of the NSW performance monitoring system to assess its effectiveness in mitigating high inherent risks related to
and Sewerage Framework
contamination or pollution
The audit found that the system appears to be effective in mitigating these risksrsquo
d Describe who or what created the issue or challenge Examples include specific industry participants (such as producers or consumers) and environmental factors (such as the effect of climate change)
The benefits of safe water supply and sewerage services are universally recognised
However due to the lack of economies of scale and remoteness the cost per premises is
much higher for regional communities As a consequence there is no incentive for private
providers or local councils to invest in water and sewerage infrastructure because of the
prohibitively high capital cost and improbability of being able to recover these costs from the
residents This has resulted in many of these communities missing out on the collective
provision of safe water supply and sewerage services due largely to the high cost per
premises of installing the required infrastructure
e List current programs or legal instruments (provided by industry or any level of government) which aim to address the issue or challenge Could these be altered to address the issue or challenge
Other Programs Able to be altered
Sydney Water and Hunter Water Service the metropolitan areas of the Sydney and Hunter Regions in accordance with their Acts
Yes although impractical the Acts could be altered to give Sydney Water and Hunter Water responsibility for all non-metropolitan urban areas of NSW
Local Government Under DPI Waterrsquos Best Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework LWUs (ie Local Government) are required to achieve best practice provision including the determination of service and pricing levels based on long term strategic business planning and full cost recovery principles
No ndash Local Government does not have the required resources to fund the required infrastructure nor provide the appropriate coordinated planning pricing and technical expertise to achieve these outcomes
5 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
There are no other current Programs within State Government that specifically provide the services and support that the CTWSS Program delivers
Not applicable
f Identify who might benefit if action [such as the program being evaluated] is taken by the department
Who are the primary beneficiaries
Water users currently without adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services (but who would receive adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services as a result of the program) would benefit from a reduced risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Who else might benefit
The NSW community would benefit from lower public health costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Water utilities in regional NSW would benefit from providing safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
Towns in regional NSW would benefit from becoming more attractive destinations for visitors residents and businesses after gaining safe water supplies and sewerage services
Industries dependant on water services (eg fisheries oyster hatcheries regional development)
61 discrete Aboriginal communities also benefit from improved water and sewerage infrastructure under the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program as that Program is serviced by technical specialists from the CTWSS Program
g Determine whether there might be a role for the department in addressing the perceived issue or challenge ndash ie what high-level objectives might a potential program achieve
Objective Working with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure
water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community
needs protect public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
Policy Alignment
a NSW 2021 goal4
NSW2021 Goal 21 ldquoSecure potable water suppliesrdquo Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country
Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and
sewerage services including administering funding for priority water and sewerage
infrastructure providing emergency drought assistance reviewing performance of utilities
and advising on improved operation of utilities managing dams weirs and water and sewage
treatment facilitiesrdquo
a NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan outcome
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ldquoPositive business environment in NSWrdquo Outcome 5
ldquoEnergy and regional water supplies and services are reliable efficient and sustainablerdquo
Strategy 1 ldquoRegulate and monitor regional water supplies to meet reliability and performance
standards for water continuity and qualityrdquo and Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and sewerage
servicesrdquo
NSW State Priorities (NSW Making it Happen) have since replaced NSW 2021
6 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
4
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
has effectively promoted adoption of better management practices by LWUs
has made a financial contribution to the building of water supply and sewerage infrastructure in country towns
has reduced the 1996 backlog of projects and
has targeted only genuine backlog works and that these projects were fit-for-purpose
Page 23 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report is shown in Appendix A on page 21
In addition page 26 of the NSW Auditor-Generalrsquos Report states that
lsquoFeedback from LWUs to the audit was that they found the performance monitoring and reporting particularly the benchmarking useful in identifying improvement opportunities
The Productivity Commission (2011) has also commended NOW (NSW Office of Water) for its data-auditing approach
In 2013 NOW commissioned an audit of the NSW performance monitoring system to assess its effectiveness in mitigating high inherent risks related to
and Sewerage Framework
contamination or pollution
The audit found that the system appears to be effective in mitigating these risksrsquo
d Describe who or what created the issue or challenge Examples include specific industry participants (such as producers or consumers) and environmental factors (such as the effect of climate change)
The benefits of safe water supply and sewerage services are universally recognised
However due to the lack of economies of scale and remoteness the cost per premises is
much higher for regional communities As a consequence there is no incentive for private
providers or local councils to invest in water and sewerage infrastructure because of the
prohibitively high capital cost and improbability of being able to recover these costs from the
residents This has resulted in many of these communities missing out on the collective
provision of safe water supply and sewerage services due largely to the high cost per
premises of installing the required infrastructure
e List current programs or legal instruments (provided by industry or any level of government) which aim to address the issue or challenge Could these be altered to address the issue or challenge
Other Programs Able to be altered
Sydney Water and Hunter Water Service the metropolitan areas of the Sydney and Hunter Regions in accordance with their Acts
Yes although impractical the Acts could be altered to give Sydney Water and Hunter Water responsibility for all non-metropolitan urban areas of NSW
Local Government Under DPI Waterrsquos Best Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework LWUs (ie Local Government) are required to achieve best practice provision including the determination of service and pricing levels based on long term strategic business planning and full cost recovery principles
No ndash Local Government does not have the required resources to fund the required infrastructure nor provide the appropriate coordinated planning pricing and technical expertise to achieve these outcomes
5 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
There are no other current Programs within State Government that specifically provide the services and support that the CTWSS Program delivers
Not applicable
f Identify who might benefit if action [such as the program being evaluated] is taken by the department
Who are the primary beneficiaries
Water users currently without adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services (but who would receive adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services as a result of the program) would benefit from a reduced risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Who else might benefit
The NSW community would benefit from lower public health costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Water utilities in regional NSW would benefit from providing safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
Towns in regional NSW would benefit from becoming more attractive destinations for visitors residents and businesses after gaining safe water supplies and sewerage services
Industries dependant on water services (eg fisheries oyster hatcheries regional development)
61 discrete Aboriginal communities also benefit from improved water and sewerage infrastructure under the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program as that Program is serviced by technical specialists from the CTWSS Program
g Determine whether there might be a role for the department in addressing the perceived issue or challenge ndash ie what high-level objectives might a potential program achieve
Objective Working with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure
water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community
needs protect public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
Policy Alignment
a NSW 2021 goal4
NSW2021 Goal 21 ldquoSecure potable water suppliesrdquo Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country
Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and
sewerage services including administering funding for priority water and sewerage
infrastructure providing emergency drought assistance reviewing performance of utilities
and advising on improved operation of utilities managing dams weirs and water and sewage
treatment facilitiesrdquo
a NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan outcome
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ldquoPositive business environment in NSWrdquo Outcome 5
ldquoEnergy and regional water supplies and services are reliable efficient and sustainablerdquo
Strategy 1 ldquoRegulate and monitor regional water supplies to meet reliability and performance
standards for water continuity and qualityrdquo and Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and sewerage
servicesrdquo
NSW State Priorities (NSW Making it Happen) have since replaced NSW 2021
6 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
4
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
There are no other current Programs within State Government that specifically provide the services and support that the CTWSS Program delivers
Not applicable
f Identify who might benefit if action [such as the program being evaluated] is taken by the department
Who are the primary beneficiaries
Water users currently without adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services (but who would receive adequate safe water supplies and sewerage services as a result of the program) would benefit from a reduced risk of water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Who else might benefit
The NSW community would benefit from lower public health costs and associated productivity losses from avoidable water-borne diseases like gastroenteritis
Water utilities in regional NSW would benefit from providing safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
Towns in regional NSW would benefit from becoming more attractive destinations for visitors residents and businesses after gaining safe water supplies and sewerage services
Industries dependant on water services (eg fisheries oyster hatcheries regional development)
61 discrete Aboriginal communities also benefit from improved water and sewerage infrastructure under the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program as that Program is serviced by technical specialists from the CTWSS Program
g Determine whether there might be a role for the department in addressing the perceived issue or challenge ndash ie what high-level objectives might a potential program achieve
Objective Working with LWUs to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure
water supply and sewerage services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community
needs protect public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
Policy Alignment
a NSW 2021 goal4
NSW2021 Goal 21 ldquoSecure potable water suppliesrdquo Priority Action 2 ldquoDeliver the Country
Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and
sewerage services including administering funding for priority water and sewerage
infrastructure providing emergency drought assistance reviewing performance of utilities
and advising on improved operation of utilities managing dams weirs and water and sewage
treatment facilitiesrdquo
a NSW Trade amp Investment Strategic Plan outcome
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ldquoPositive business environment in NSWrdquo Outcome 5
ldquoEnergy and regional water supplies and services are reliable efficient and sustainablerdquo
Strategy 1 ldquoRegulate and monitor regional water supplies to meet reliability and performance
standards for water continuity and qualityrdquo and Strategy 2 ldquoDeliver the Country Towns Water
Supply and Sewerage Program which supports the provision of water and sewerage
servicesrdquo
NSW State Priorities (NSW Making it Happen) have since replaced NSW 2021
6 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
4
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Market Failure Unsafe water supply and sewerage services result in adverse health outcomes which
generate costs to both the people affected and the wider economy via productivity losses
and costs to the public health system Avoiding these adverse health outcomes saves public
health costs and associated productivity losses This represents a positive externality from
the investment in safe water supply and sewerage services
In most regional communities the private benefits from investing in safe water supply and
sewerage services are not sufficient to justify this investment This results in less investment
in safe water supply and sewerage services than is socially optimal Where the total benefit
(private + public) is greater than the total cost of providing safe water supply and sewerage
services it would be efficient to encourage this provision assuming there was an efficient
and equitable means of funding such provision
Social Equity Goal Safe water supply and sewerage services while universal in metropolitan areas may not be
available to communities in regional NSW Access to appropriate and affordable water
supply and sewerage services can help reduce other disadvantages that these communities
may face Safe water supply and sewerage services for remote Aboriginal communities have
been identified as a particularly important equity issue
7 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 2 ndash Program Options amp Design
Identify all potential options for achieving the objective including those that least impede business activity
Option 1
The existing
CTWSS
program
Description
DPI Water manages and administers the Country Towns Water Supply and
Sewerage (CTWSS) Program a major government reform program that has two
broad elements
promote adoption of better practices through leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (mainly local government councils) and monitor LWUsrsquo performance and
financial assistance towards the capital cost of water supply and sewerage infrastructure backlog works to bring water supply and sewerage services up to prevailing standards to meet the 1996 population demands (backlog requirements)
The utilities include all regional councils in NSW providing public water supply
and sewerage services These utilities are outside the areas of operation of
Sydney Water and Hunter Water
The objective of the CTWSS Program is to work with LWUs to achieve
appropriate affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage
services in urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect
public health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA
sewage treatment works licence conditions
In return for State Government funding LWUs need to implement the best
practice management principles encapsulated in the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
(wwwwaternswgovau) The Framework requires the utilities to prepare and
implement a 30-year strategic business plan total asset management plan and
financial plan sound water supply amp sewerage pricing developer charges trade
waste policy approvals and pricing water conservation drought management
annual performance monitoring and an IWCM strategy
The activities performed by the CTWSS Program staff to ensure that LWUs
implement the requirements of the Best Practice Management Framework and
statutory requirements under the National Water Initiative 2004 and the Local
Government Act 19935 are ongoing regardless of funding for capital projects
Through the CTWSS Program DPI Water
The requirements include
Annual Performance Monitoring (National Performance Framework 2014)
Sound pricing of water supply sewerage and trade waste (COAG Strategic Framework for Water Reform National Competition Policy National Water Initiative (NWI) 2004 NWI Pricing Principles 2010)
Section 60 approval [Local Government Act 1993] of any proposed LWU dams and water and sewage
treatment works
Section 61 inspections [Local Government Act] of LWU dams and water and sewage treatment works
(ADWG 2011 National Certification Framework of Water Treatment Operators 2014 National Water Quality Management Strategy National Sewage Quality Management Framework 2012) and
IWCM Strategy total asset management plan and financial plan (National Urban Water Planning Principles 2008)
8 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
5
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
1 provides leadership guidance training and expert advice to the 105 LWUs (generally local government councils) to assist them to implement the 19 requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework
2 oversees monitors and publicly discloses the State-wide performance and the performance of each utility
3 provides expert advice to LWUs on strategic planning IWCM total asset management planning (TAMP) financial planning pricing management operation maintenance and procuring infrastructure
4 manages water and sewage treatment and dam safety programs to ensure the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewage treatment works and 116 LWU dams and weirs and that any such new specialist infrastructure is safe lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose and cost-effective
5 provides financial assistance to LWUs towards the capital cost of works to address the backlog in secure water supply and sewerage infrastructure (subject to a means test) Backlog relates to infrastructure necessary to meet the demand loads service standards and regulatory requirements that existed in 1996 Each utility is responsible for operation and maintenance costs and capital costs to meet population growth asset replacement and renewal and changes in standards or requirements post 1996 As a result in general terms for each dollar contributed by the State Government towards a project the LWU contributes two dollars The State Government contributes the standard 50 of the capital cost for small LWUs (with annual water and sewerage revenue lt $10 million) and 20 for large LWUs with greater revenue and
6 provides technical and financial assistance to LWUs to maintain essential water supplies in periods of drought
Resourcing requirements
The CTWSS Program has a number of activities each with a staff establishment Overall the Program has 51 approved full time positions comprising6
CTWSS Program management 5
Finance and administration 3
Policy 3
Dam safety 2
Water amp Sewerage Process specialists3
Regional Water and Sewerage Treatment Officers 11
Regional staff 10
Manager Aboriginal Communities WampS Program 1
Water Utility Performance (Utility Performance Planning IWCM Trade Waste) 13
Note 4 of Program staff are funded by the Aboriginal Communities Water and Sewerage Program
Funding arrangements
In the 2014-15 State Budget the CTWSS Program was allocated $461 million
Of this amount $39 million is for capital grants The remaining $71 million is
allocated for Program management as well as funding of the other activities
listed in the Resource requirements above The program is due to sunset in
2017-18
6 Note that 12 of these positions are presently vacant with recruitment underway for 4 of the positions
9 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Current Treasury forward allocations for the grants program for the current 4
year Treasury Cycle are
2014-15 $39016M
2015-16 $29661M
2016-17 $28948M
2017-18 $0
Governance arrangements
Financial management of the Program is reported to NSW Treasury
The appropriate level of backlog subsidy for each capital works project is
assessed by Program officers based on design capacity and population figures
provided by the LWUs This assessment is scrutinised by a Subsidy Review
Board (SRB) within DPI Water and the assessed level of subsidy is either
supported or additional information is sought
The SRB process ensures consistency of subsidy assessment across all
projects and ensures the projects are not ldquogold-platedrdquo and represent value for
money on the basis of social environmental and economic considerations
All funding offers to LWUs are made by the Minister responsible for the
Program and the relevant Local Government Mayor Chairman and General
Manager sign the Conditions of Offer document for the funding
Furthermore the New South Wales Auditor-Generalrsquos Performance Audit Report
found that since 2004 the CTWSS funding allocation has improved through the
adoption of prioritisation and means testing the linking of funding to the
adoption of better practices and tighter funding agreements and better
management of project costs
Consultation strategy
Consultation with Local Government NSW NSW Water Directorate LWUs
NSW Health the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Planning and
Environment Infrastructure NSW the Dams Safety Committee (DSC) and other
relevant bodies and authorities is undertaken on a regular basis to ensure the
Programrsquos objectives are being delivered effectively and efficiently
Consultation with NSW Treasury occurs on a regular basis to enable budgetary
processes to be fully informed of predicted expenditure profiles re-profiling
where necessary and on occasions when funding is limited individual project
expenditure can be deferred
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
The Program is closely controlled to deliver the scheduled projects within the
approved budget
For lsquocost recoveryrsquo purposes there are two distinct program components
provision of technical support and provision of financial assistance
Technical Support
The provision of technical support is in response to the positive externalities that
10 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
the NSW Government is able to realise by providing strategic planning and
expert technical advice in the provision of such utilities Being that the advice
offered provides government planning health and allocative efficiency benefits
beyond the scope of the individual LWUs the government funding to provide
such services is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
technical support indicates that the costs should not be recovered The pathway
through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as follows 1
2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
The benefit of technical support is assumed to accrue to the broader NSW
public (as opposed to the residents of individual LWUs) by allowing the LWUs to
realise health benefits for the wider population and accommodate future
potential regional development As such it is assumed that the major
beneficiaries are not a narrow identifiable group (9a) and neither are the
identifiable minor beneficiaries able to capture enough benefits to warrant
paying for the provision (9b)
Financial Assistance
The provision of financial assistance is also in response to the positive
externalities that the NSW Government is able to realise on behalf of its
constituents and the welfare considerations of Government (that a minimum
level of water quality be established for all NSW residents) Similarly the benefits
of achieving desired minimum health standards through infrastructure provision
also lies beyond the scope of the individual LWU and as such the government
funding to provide such assistance is deemed to be non cost-recoverable
Application of the Productivity Commissionrsquos cost recovery principles to the
financial assistance indicates that the costs should not be recovered The
pathway through the Cost Recovery Decision Framework (Appendix B) is as
follows 1 2b 3 4 9a 9b 11 12 recommending provision with no cost recovery
(with the same justifications)
Pricing strategy outside the scope of the Program
Unlike for the NSW Government contribution to this Program at the LWU level
the benefits do apply to the constituents of each LWU Thus at the LWU level it
is likely to be efficient and equitable to achieve an appropriate level of cost
recovery for the provision of services Indeed under the NSW Best-Practice
Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework each LWU is required
to achieve best practice pricing including full cost recovery (which involves
achieving at least lsquolower bound pricingrsquo7 and moving towards lsquoupper bound
pricingrsquo where practicable) However the details of such pricing strategies lie
outside the scope of this evaluation
Lower bound pricing is sufficient to ensure the long term financial sustainability of services on the basis of the LWUrsquos existing Typical Residential Bill (TRB) in real terms Utilities electing to pay a dividend from the surplus of their water and sewerage businesses to the Councilrsquos general revenue will be moving towards upper bound pricing which is the maximum level of pricing without invoking monopoly pricing powers
11 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
7
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Key performance measures
The CTWSS Program provides advice and funding towards appropriate
affordable cost-effective and secure water supply and sewerage services in
urban areas of regional NSW which meet community needs protect public
health by meeting ADWG and protect the environment by meeting EPA sewage
treatment works licence conditions
The key performance measures listed below follow NSW Treasury guidelines
that refer to lsquoresult indicatorsrsquo which are aimed at gauging whether services are
making a positive impact on society Relevant output indicators are also
provided as examples of how the program contributes to higher level
performance measures and indicators
Output measures and indicators
Cumulative number of grants assessed and approved Target of 549 by 2016-17
Cumulative number of construction projects completed Target of 549 by 2016-17
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 20 per year
Number of inspections of Water Treatment Works Sewage Treatment Works to assist in the safe effective and efficient management of the 539 LWU water and sewerage treatment works (target of 600 per year) amp 116 LWU dams amp weirs (target of 30 per year)
Timely completion of the annual program reports including the NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report the NSW Benchmarking Report and LWU TBL Performance Reports
Outcome measures and indicators
Water supply coverage () amp sewerage coverage () in regional NSW Targets of 980 and 962 by 2016-17 respectively
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems under the program Target of 1050000 by 2016-17
Proportion of LWU microbiological water samples complying with ADWG (health related) Target of 995 of samples tested
Proportion of urban population in regional NSW with ADWG compliant public drinking water supply Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs meeting ADWG Target of 98 (by 2016-17)
Proportion of LWUs complying with EPA sewage treatment licence conditions for Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Solids Targets of 85 and 75 respectively (by 2016-17)
Sound planning pricing and management by LWUs with 90 of the overall requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by LWUs
12 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 2
Extended
CTWSS
Program
Description
This option would see the Government allocate funds in the forward estimates to the CTWSS Program to enable it to complete the remaining 71 unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list This differs from Option 1 in that the CTWSS is continued instead of sun-setting in 2017-18
Background
In 2002 there were 123 unfunded backlog projects in the CTWSS Program Since then a number of LWUs have completed some backlog projects without Government assistance and others have decided not to proceed
As a result towards the end of 2014 there were 71 unfunded water supply and sewerage backlog projects spread over 50 LWUs in the CTWSS Program These projects which were unfunded due to a shortfall in Program funds as a result of partial indexation since 1996 are all that remain of the original 670 water supply and sewerage backlog projects that had been identified and listed in the CTWSS Program in 2002
The majority of the unfunded 71 water supply and sewerage projects are small infrastructure works to provide reticulated sewerage and water supplies to small disadvantaged under resourced and financially stressed communities currently dependent on septic systems and rainwater tanks
A CBA consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal and prioritisation on 62 of these remaining unfunded projects was conducted by the Strategic Policy and Economics Branch of Trade and Investment (Appendix C)
The CBA revealed that the total capital cost for these 62 projects was estimated to be $318 million with a maximum NSW Government subsidy of $112 million
On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million net present value (NPV) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However the CBA findings are considered to be underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken The CBA thus recommends that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the identified projects
The Government accepted this recommendation and under the Regional Water and Waste Water Backlog Program has publically committed $110 million towards the remaining 71 water supply and sewerage projects subject to each project undergoing a CBA
Funds have been reserved by Treasury for this and it is anticipated that the remaining relatively small water and sewerage projects will be finished by 2022
13 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for an additional 5 years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 1 with an additional Treasury allocation of $110 million to enable this additional work to be completed
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1
Key performance measures
As in Option 1 but with targets adjusted to account for the longer program life
14 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened
CTWSS
Program to
address
cryptosporidi
um risks and
water
security
Description
This Option differs from Options 1 and 2 in that in addition to achieving the
outcomes of options 1 and 2 the focus of the CTWSS Program would change to
also address emerging cryptosporidium8 risks and the impacts of climate
variability and environmental flows on the security of water supplies in regional
towns
Additional components commensurate with this focus would be adopted and
incorporated into a new Program that concentrates on ensuring that regional
towns in NSW address emerging cryptosporidium risks and have adequate and
secure water supplies now and into the future
Effective management of cryptosporidium risks is an emerging matter of
concern to water supply and health regulators in both Australia and overseas
Recent modelling by NSW Health and DPI Water has identified the need for
approximately $100 million of capital expenditure by LWUs on water treatment
infrastructure upgrades in order to address the identified cryptosporidium risks in
regional NSW
Research into the effects of climate variability on the security of water supplies
by DPI Water in conjunction with CSIRO and the National Water Commission
has identified an expected reduction of approximately 30 in the secure yield of
water supplies west of the Great Dividing Range in the coming years This
coupled with enhanced environmental flow requirements will substantially
reduce the secure yield of LWU water supply systems
In order to provide appropriate urban water supply security in the face of the
estimated climate variability increased environmental flows and the identified
need for piped transfers from regulated dams over the next 10 years DPI Water
has conducted a secure yield analysis and desktop study of the water security
for 30 regional water supplies which has found that LWUs will need to increase
their current identified and planned for capital works programs of approximately
$11 billion over 30 years by an estimated 30 in order to achieve appropriate
water security for the towns in regional NSW
The grant component and technical advice provided by the current CTWSS
Program would be continued and expanded in Option 3 to include the above
broader Program objective
Resourcing requirements
Staff numbers required as per Option 1 (extended for several more years)
Funding requirements are as per Option 2 with an additional Treasury allocation
yet to be determined over 11 years
Governance arrangements
As in Option 1
Consultation strategy
As in Option 1
Cryptosporidium is a single-celled organism that can cause illness in humans primarily involving watery diarrhoea with or without a persistent cough Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to chlorine disinfection
15 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
8
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Existing or proposed program pricing strategy
As in Option 1 (note some further consideration would be required for the additional functions)
Key performance measures
Output measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
30-year IWCM Strategy for each LWU in regional NSW which shows that the secure yield with climate variability and appropriate environmental flows for each water supply exceeds the unrestricted annual water demand
Number of independent assessments (Section 60 reports) completed for proposed dams water and sewage treatment works and recycling projects to ensure they are lsquoright sizedrsquo fit-for-purpose cost-effective meet public health safety and environmental requirements Target of 30 per year
Outcome measures and indicators
As per Option 1 (with the following alterations)
Number of people benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems Target of 1500000 by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have addressed emerging cryptosporidium risks to assure safe drinking water supplies (Drinking Water Management Systems prepared and implemented under the Public Health Act 2010 and Australian Drinking Water Guidelines) by 2026-27
All regional urban water supplies to have appropriate water security by addressing climate variability amp environmental flows by 2026-27
Sound planning pricing and management of water supply and sewerage by LWUs with all of the requirements of the Best-Practice Management of Water Supply amp Sewerage Framework met by the LWUs by 2026-27
16 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Step 3 ndash Options Assessment
Shortlist options by qualitatively listing below the benefits and costs to the citizens of NSW of each option relative to the base case of lsquono programrsquo If the program contains sub-components it may be easier to consider the benefits and costs of each subcomponent
Benefits Costs Qualitative assessment of net
impact
Option 1 1050000 people in regional areas benefiting from improved water supplysewerage systems through reduced risk of water-
Grants program 2014-15 $39016M
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 Benefits significantly outweigh costs to community
The existing borne diseases like gastroenteritis This contributes to 2015-16 $29661M and Government CTWSS lower public health costs and associated employment 2016-17 $28948M program
productivity losses
tourism benefits for regional centres
decreased private industry water infrastructuretreatment costs (water treatment costs water tanks sewerage costs)
health and community benefits to 61 discrete Aboriginal communities
more viable LWUs providing quality (reasonably priced) service from the subsidised provision of safe water supplies and sewerage services to all eligible communities
NSW2021 Goal 21 Priority Action 2 achieved
NSW TampI Strategic Plan Result 2 ndash Outcome 5 ndash Strategy 2 achieved
environmental benefits
2017-18 $0 Total of $9764M
(a Net Present Value has not been calculated because many of the costs have already been incurred)
This is not the preferred option because although the benefits significantly outweigh the costs many of the high return projects have already been undertaken in keeping with the prioritisation schedule This leaves the remaining projects as those with expected lower returns Furthermore this program is due to sunset in 2017-18
Option 2
Extended CTWSS Program
As per Option 1 with the extension of these benefits to include the remaining 71 previously unfunded water and sewerage projects on the 2002 infrastructure list
Allows for the timely establishment and proven quality of provision for the proposed $110 million program that has already achieved commitment from the government
As per Option 1 with the addition of $110 million over a 5 year period (a Net Present Value of approx $90 million)
Benefit Cost Ratio gt 1 (in the vicinity of 101 to 154)
Benefits outweigh costs to community and Government
Option 2 is the preferred option because although the net benefit is not expected to be as great as for Option 1 (due to the prioritisation of high return projects having already been undertaken) the current program (Option 1) is due to sunset in 2017shy18 and Option 2 provides the next best investment opportunity
17 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Option 3
Broadened CTWSS Program to address cryptosporidi um risks and water security
As per Option 2 with the addition of addressing emerging cryptosporidium risks and maintaining urban water security in the face of climate variability and increased environmental flow requirements in order to assure the ongoing viability of towns and associated commerce and industry in regional NSW
Many of the benefits listed in Options 1 and 2 will be realised (but with greater measure) for Option 3 This includes
environmental benefits
tourism benefits
increased regional development
reduced industry infrastructure
Additional benefits include
emerging cryptosporidium risks addressed in order to protect the community and businesses in regional NSW
continued viability of towns cities and industries in regional NSW assured through the resulting appropriate urban water security
reduced number and length of time of water restrictions in regional towns increasing quality of life
development of stronger drought resilient infrastructure leading to a reduction in government drought assistance to rural towns
population growth in these urban centres with the associated follow-on economic activity and improved employment within the region
alleviate impacts of climate variability and the need for increased for environmental flows
As per Option 2 with an additional yet to be determined cost
Option 3 would address emerging cryptosporidium risks and the impacts of climate variability and environmental flows on security of water supplies This option warrants further development and analysis of its likely costs and benefits
Option 3 while still in the developmental stage appears to cost-effectively provide the necessary water quality protection and urban water security to assure the ongoing viability of towns commerce industry and associated high security water users in regional NSW
Option 3 is not currently the preferred option
18 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix A - The NSW Auditor Generalrsquos Performance Audit of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program (May 2015) page 23
19 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Evaluation of the Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Appendix B ndash Cost Recovery Decision Framework
20 NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Appendix C
Country Towns Water Supply and Sewerage Program
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Unfunded Backlog Projects
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Executive Summary
The majority of the Country Towns Water Supply amp Sewerage Program (CTWSS) run by the Office of Water involves NSW Government contributions towards the lsquo1996 backlog componentsrsquo of sewerage and water quality infrastructure project capital works All funds have now been committed to 2016-17 leaving 77 unfunded projects After excluding 11 water security projects and 4 Hunter Water Corporation projects a cost benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted on the remaining 62 projects in order to determine the net benefits arising from the program as a whole
For each project the costs considered include
capital costs and
ongoing operation maintenance and administration (OMA) costs after the capital work
has been completed
For each project the benefits considered include
health benefits in the form of reduced incidence of gastroenteritis from improved
standards of water supply and sewerage resulting in reduced
o healthcare costs
o productivity losses
o mortality costs
the residential bill charged by Local Water Utilities (LWU) that cover the ongoing OMA
costs and the current replacement cost depreciation and
the avoided household expenditure to secure their own safe water supply or sewerage
disposal after the projects are implemented
Note that maintenance costs and the LWU residential bills are effectively a transfer and cancel each other out in the program-wide analysis Costs and benefits that have not been quantified include
environmental damage and
the risk of epidemicsgastroenteritis outbreaks
Total capital costs for the 62 projects are estimated to be $318 million and the maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million
The counterfactual for this CBA is lsquono programrsquo that is no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy On this basis 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101 However caution is recommended when considering this estimate as each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated here to result in net costs in cases where LWUs decide that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating net benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
xxiii NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Contents Contents xxiv
Background 25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options 26
Suitability of Projects 26
Program Costs 27
Capital Costs 27
Ongoing Costs 27
Program Benefits 27
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis 28
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 28
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis 31
Residual Value 31
Avoided Household Expenditure 31
Additional Unquantified Benefits 32
Indexation and Discount Rate 33
Analysis Period 34
Results and Discussion 34
Sensitivity Analysis 35
Recommendation 36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results 37
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart 40
Bibliography 42
xxiv NSW Department of Industry January 2016
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Background
The Country Town Water Supply amp Sewerage (CTWSS) Program9 is a major reform State Government program for Local Water Utilities (LWUs) in regional NSW (generally local councils) to achieve appropriate affordable cost-effective and sustainable water supply and sewerage services
The Program provides leadership and guidance to local water utilities in best practice planning pricing management operation and maintenance of their water supply and sewerage systems In addition financial assistance is provided towards the cost of capital works required to meet population demands andor prevailing standards as at 1996 Funding is not provided for works needed as a result of population growth or regulatory changes since that time nor for operation or maintenance expenses or renewal or rehabilitation of infrastructure
The LWUs are required to plan price manage operate and maintain their water supply and sewerage systems in accordance with the 19 requirements of the comprehensive NSW Best-Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage Framework (wwwwaternswgovau)10 This ensures that any projects undertaken are fit for purpose do not involve lsquogold platingrsquo provide value for money and have strong community support11 In addition the Framework requires the utilities to achieve full cost recovery for their water and sewerage services and to provide strong pricing signals to encourage efficient use of the services
In 2004 all existing projects were prioritised on agreed transparent criteria based on public health environmental and security of supply risks No new projects have been admitted to the Program since 2004 All funds ($1227 million) are now fully committed to 2016-17 and there remain 77 unfunded backlog projects listed under the program12 As a result there is considerable inequity in regional NSW between those local water utilities that have secured funding (often the better resourced utilities) and those that have not secured funding
This report summarises the results of a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of infrastructure upgrades needed to complete the majority of the 77 unfunded projects to assist the prioritisation of this work in line with the Governmentrsquos response to Infrastructure NSWrsquos 2013 State Infrastructure Strategy
9 Key achievements of the Program include providing a reticulated water supply to a population of 181 million and sewerage to population of 169 million in regional NSW The coverage provided is 980 of the urban population for water supply and 956 for sewerage
10 It is important to note that the 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report (wwwwaternswgovau) shows that the regional NSW local water utilities are continuing to lead the way in Australia in providing appropriate cost-effective and affordable water supply and sewerage services to the community The regional NSW utilities now have among the most efficient residential water use in Australia (a Statewide median of 166kLconnected property) and all of the utilities are achieving full cost recovery for water supply with 96 achieving full cost recovery for sewerage
11 A pre-requisite for any project proceeding to implementation under the Program is support for the project by the LWU and its community including achieving full cost recovery on a whole of life cycle basis This provides assurance that only projects which are valued by the LWU and the community and which will achieve full cost recovery will be implemented
12 Each of these backlog projects supports the basic human rights of residents for access to adequate water and sanitation as well as achieving NSW 2021 Goal 21 for secure potable water supplies and appropriate sewerage services in regional NSW
25
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Assumptions and Options
This economic analysis is consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) The net benefit or cost of the proposed projects is estimated from the perspective of all NSW residents (the referent group)
To estimate the economic impact of a project the outcome for each option is estimated and compared to the status quo or base case (the lsquocounterfactualrsquo) That is the outcome for the referent group if the project were to proceed is compared with the outcome for the referent group if the project does not proceed Given that the need for the projects was determined as early as 1996 but no action has been taken by individual LWUs the counterfactual assumes that in the absence of government support the projects will not take place
The difference between the project option and the counterfactual provides an estimate of the net benefit or cost of that option
Suitability of Projects
The methodology used to value the benefits of the CTWSS program is based in part on identifying the improved health status of the residents of the communities in question and hence relies on estimating the reduced medical costs and productivity losses due to a decline in incidences of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea from waterborne sources
Of the 77 unfunded projects 11 projects have been excluded from this CBA as they do not seek to redress water supply or sewerage systems that pose a health risk due to the presence of pathogens that may lead to gastroenteritisdiarrhoea An additional 4 projects belonging to the Hunter Water Corporation have also been excluded at the request of Infrastructure NSW In total the estimated total capital cost of the excluded projects is $853 million and the maximum possible NSW Government subsidy for these projects is $289 million
The excluded projects and their respective LWUs are
1 Angledool Water Supply ndash Bore Brewarrina Shire Council
2 Bourke Water Supply Sludge Management Bourke Shire Council
3 Brewarrina Sewerage Effluent amp Water Supply Sludge Management Brewarrina
Shire Council
4 Carrathool Water Supply Carrathool Shire Council
5 Cowra Water Supply Sludge Management Cowra Shire Council
6 Dunedoo Sewerage Warrumbungle Shire Council
7 Manning District Water Supply Stage 2C (Dam) MidCoast County Council
8 Moree Water Supply Augmentation Moree Plans Shire Council
9 Narrandera Water Supply Narrandera Shire Council
10 Spring Hill Lucknow Water Supply Orange City Council
11 Yass Water Supply ndash Treatment Yass Valley Council
12 Dungog Villages Water Supply Hunter Water Corporation
13 Paterson Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
14 Gresford Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
15 Vacy amp Martins Creek Sewerage Hunter Water Corporation
These exclusions leave 62 projects that are associated with water supply quality sewerage systems and meeting National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria A full list of analysed projects is available in Appendix C1
26
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
Program Costs
Capital Costs
The Office of Water has estimated the total cost in 2014 dollars of each project with each project including a backlog component LWUs are eligible for NSW Government subsidies for only a portion of the backlog component of the work Over the life of the Program the Government has contributed approximately 30 towards the total capital costs of projects (subject to a means test) and local water utilities have contributed the remaining 70
Under the rules of the CTWSS Program the maximum level of Government subsidy towards projects to upgrade existing sub-standard systems is 20 of the backlog component for large local water utilities with a turnover of $10 million and 50 for smaller local water utilities with a revenue turnover of less than $10 million However a subsidy of 50 is provided towards the capital cost of servicing un-serviced towns as these projects would otherwise be unaffordable
The estimated total capital cost for the 62 projects is $318 million The maximum NSW Government subsidy is $112 million which is equivalent to 35 of the total capital cost
For the purposes of this CBA it has been assumed that the total capital cost13 of each project is the actual cost of construction and that the maximum Government contribution is made It is also assumed that all capital costs are incurred in a single year of construction beginning in 2016-17 While this is unrealistic as the Program if extended would fund projects over a number of years there is no way of knowing at this point in time when each project would commence construction As the purpose of this analysis is to estimate the overall net benefit of the Program this simplification is not considered material
Ongoing Costs
Operating Maintenance and Administration (OMA) costs are the ongoing costs of provision of services for LWU These include maintenance management operational and energy and chemical costs The 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Report has shown that the median Statewide Typical Residential Bill (TRB) is $1165 comprised of $840 (72 per cent) for OMA costs The remaining $325 (28 per cent) services the capital expenditure in order to meet borrowing costs and provide a return on assets (NSW Office Of Water 2014)
The estimated TRB for households that benefit from the Program have been estimated by LWUs as part of their Strategic Business Plans Assuming 72 per cent of the estimated TRB goes towards OMA costs and using the Office of Water assumption of 25 people per household the value of OMA costs have been estimated for the affected population for each project
These costs are offset in the analysis as benefits for the LWUs (a transfer between members of the referent group) with all utilities now achieving full cost recovery for water supply and 96 per cent for sewerage
Program Benefits
Whenever the water supply is compromised or whenever sanitation coverage is problematic the risk of disease particularly gastrointestinaldiarrhoeal disease is increased In NSW and elsewhere illnesses are more likely in small private water supplies in the absence of quality water supply and sewerage systems in systems that do not have risk-based drinking water management systems and locations that do not meet National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Guidelines health criteria The costs associated with illness include healthcare costs (both to the health system and patient) productivity costs due to lost activity
13 Including survey investigation design project management and contingency 27
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43
in the workplace or home and mortality costs based on the estimated years of life lost by different age groups14
In addition households will be able to avoid current expenditure such as the costs of water filtration units water carting and septic tank and infiltration system maintenance
Incidence Rate of Gastroenteritis
The rate of incidence for gastroenteritis in Australia is assumed to be 074 casesperson per year equivalent to 159 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year This is based on the results of the National Gastroenteritis Survey II 2008-2009 (NGSII) (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012 Kirk Glass et al 2014) For comparison the initial National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001-02 (NGSI) found an incidence rate of 092 casesperson per year equivalent to 172 million cases of gastroenteritis in the study year (Hall Kirk et al 2004)
The incidence rate of 074 casesperson per year reflects that a majority of the Australian population is serviced by a fully reticulated water supply and sewerage system that meets NHMRC guidelines as seen in major cities As such the incidence rate is likely to be higher in country towns that do not have access to such water and sanitation systems and those that do not meet NHMRC guidelines
It is estimated that water sanitation and hygiene interventions that seek to reduce diarrhoea and gastrointestinal infections will reduce overall incidence rates on average by 30 (corresponding to a relative risk of 070) This figure reflects meta-analyses of interventions that have found an overall incidence reduction ranging between 25-37 (relative risks ranging from 063 to 075) (Fewtrell Kaufmann et al 2005) In particular a meta-analysis of five studies that looked specifically at comparing sewerage systems with septic tanks found a reduction in incidence rates of 31 (relative risk of 069) while all 25 studies in this meta-analysis resulted in reduced incidence rates by 30 (Norman Pedley et al 2010) It is noted that these studies focus primarily on the incidence rates of diarrhoea and as such may underestimate the reduction in the total number of gastroenteritis cases if they present with non-diarrhoeal symptoms such as vomiting
If a reduction in incidence rates of 30 is expected the incidence figure of 074 casesperson per year is expected to be 70 of the incidence rate prior to intervention Consequently country towns that have had no intervention have estimated incidence rates of 106 casesperson per year The 30 improvement will thus see a reduction of 032 casesperson per year
Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Benefits from interventions that improve water supply and sewerage systems reflect a reduced incidence rate of gastroenteritis leading to reduced expenditure on healthcare a reduced productivity loss with respect to both work and household activities and the reduced cost of mortality
A report prepared by Applied Economics Pty Ltd for the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing uses the findings of the NGSI as a basis for calculating the costs of foodborne gastroenteritis to the economy (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the report is focused on the cost of foodborne illness the figures for the per case cost of gastroenteritis have been used with the assumption that a case of gastroenteritis will have similar costs regardless of cause
However this approach may underestimate the reduction in costs as it does not take into consideration the different weighting between the number cases of gastroenteritis and severity If waterborne cases have a higher proportion of severe compared to mild cases or
14 In determining parameters Australian based studies have been used where possible with greater consideration also given to studies based on developed nations
28
the impact is more widespread than the average per case cost will be higher Furthermore country towns that experience a higher weighting of severe cases of gastroenteritis may also have higher costs of medical care compared to cities contributing to a higher average cost per case
Medical Costs
Total healthcare costs include hospitalisations visits to emergency departmentsgeneral practitionersspecialists diagnostic testing and pharmaceutical expenses The current healthcare cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $497415
Productivity Costs
Productivity losses are comprised of losses to workplace productivity and household activity and include both lost time for the individual due to illness or if the individual is acting as a carer for someone else who is ill
Absenteeism
Productivity loss due to sick days or absenteeism is equal to the amount of work days lost multiplied by average daily earnings16 and may be borne by the employer or employee depending on the nature of the employment contract
Figures from NGSII17 indicate that 089 work days (absenteeism) are lost per case of gastroenteritis In comparison a recent large national study in Germany found that each episode of acute gastroenteritis in adults resulted in 097 days of work lost (Wilking Spitznagel et al 2013) while a study of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in European countries found the mean number of workings days lost by parents ranged from 23 to 75 (Van der Wielen Giaquinto et al 2010)
This CBA uses the NGSII 089 work days lost per case multiplied by average daily earnings ($22312) to estimate the cost of absenteeism at $20039 per case
Presenteeism
Estimates of workplace productivity losses should also consider the costs of presenteeism which refers to the situation when employees attend work while ill resulting in reduced labour productivity These costs may be as high as three-four times that of absenteeism or reduce overall average labour productivity by 25 (Medibank Private 2007 Comcare 2011) Work by The Center for Work and Health in the US have estimated the costs of presenteeism to be three times higher than the cost of absenteeism (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007 Medibank Private 2007 Medibank Private 2011)
In Australia research conducted by Econtech Pty Ltd estimated that the costs of absenteeism to the economy were $7 billion in 2005 while presenteeism costs to the economy were more than 35 times that at $257 billion in 2007 (Econtech Pty Ltd 2007)
15 The total healthcare costs in 2002 prices were divided by the number of cases to determine the average cost
per case and then estimates for 201314 prices were calculated using the Total Health Price Index published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) The 10-year trend annual growth rate up to 2012-13 the most recent year available was applied to estimate the 2013-14 Total Health Price Index and a growth rate from 2002-03 to 2013-14 calculated 16
Average daily earnings = average of the original May and November Total Weekly Earnings per Person for NSW in a financial year divided by five Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A) 17
OzFoodNet and the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH) funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and New South Wales Food Authority conducted national cross-sectional surveys to estimate the national incidence of gastroenteritis meeting a specific case definition The surveys used computer assisted telephone interviews NGSI was conducted in 2001ndash2 while NGSII was conducted in 2008ndash9
The NGSIII included questions on the amount of work days and activity or household days lost which have been used with the value of the days lost to calculate the total productivity costs As the survey specifically asked the number of work days lost this explicitly accounts for cases of illness that may occur on weekends and for the level of employment
29
Advice from NSW Health on the duration of illness support the presenteeism multiplier with Cryptosporidium infection resulting in mild diarrhoea lasting four days moderate diarrhoea lasting 125 days and severe diarrhoea lasting 214 days (Gibney Sinclair et al 2012)
In addition the costs of presenteeism may also be greater if employees are still infectious leading to increased person-to-person transmissions
Gastroenteritis can also lead to the development of several further pathological conditions including Guillain-Barreacute syndrome (a progressive paralysis that can be fatal) irritable bowel syndrome and reactive arthritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006) While the latter two conditions may not be acute they have the potential to limit work productivity on an ongoing basis
Considering the factors above the costs of presenteeism for this CBA have been estimated as three times the per case cost of absenteeism
Household Time Lost
Loss of household activity reflects the days lost that would have been spent on activities other than work and Applied Economics have assumed a value of 50 of average daily earnings Results from NGSI17 indicate that 069 household days are lost per case of gastroenteritis (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
This CBA uses the NGSI 069 household days lost18 per case multiplied by half average daily earnings ($11156) to estimate the cost of household time lost at $7644 per case
With the latest figures for average daily earnings the current productivity cost per case of gastroenteritis is estimated to be $87799
Mortality Costs
Mortality costs reflect the cost of estimated years of life lost weighted by different age groups by Applied Economics to account for higher mortality in persons aged 65 and over The annual rate of Sydney CPI has been used to bring the 2004 estimate to 2013-14 prices
This CBA estimates the current mortality cost per case of gastroenteritis to be $2894
Total Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
The total cost avoided due to reduced cases of gastroenteritis is $95668 per case in 2013shy14 prices This cost per case multiplied by the reduction in casesperson per year yield the estimated reduced cost per person Thus the benefit associated with improved water and sewerage systems is reduced costs of $30340 per head of population covered by each project
In comparison a New Zealand estimate of the costs of foodborne infectious disease found the average cost per case of foodborne infectious disease to be AU$71801 (NZ$462 2000) Notably this study did not consider the costs of presenteeism but did consider medical costs loss of productivity and loss of life (Scott Scott et al 2000)
18 Published results from NGSII have not provided updated figures for the number of household days lost (Kirk
Glass et al 2014) NGSI is the most current figure available for this parameter 30
Summary of Reduced Costs of Gastroenteritis
Table 1 Summary of program benefits (2013-14)
Impact of Project CasesPerson per Year
Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease Without Projects 106
30 Reduction in Cases Due to Improved Conditions19
-032
Base Incidence Rate of Diarrhoeal Disease in Australia20
074
Costs of Gastroenteritis Per Case21 $case
Hospital Costs $627
EDGPSpecialist Visits $3476
Other Costs $871
Healthcare Costs $4974
Absenteeism $20039
Presenteeism $60116
Household Time Lost $7644
Productivity Costs $87799
Mortality Costs $2894
Total Costs $95668
Benefits from Reduced Gastroenteritis Per Person22 $person
Total Costs Avoided $30340
Residual Value
The NSW Office of Water has advised an average expected life of 80 years for the projects The residual value of the infrastructure has been calculated using straight-line depreciation as there are no estimates for profit or cash flow to enable alternate methods Thus the residual value from 2047-48 has been calculated as 625 of the initial capital costs in real terms
Avoided Household Expenditure
The 62 projects considered have been sorted into one of four categories based on their goal If projects are completed the impacted population23 will then be able to avoid different levels of expenditure depending on their current situation Estimates have been provided by the NSW Office of Water
19 Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed
countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42-52 Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544 20
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand 21
Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Average costs per case of gastroenteritis have been calculated in 2002 (medical costs) or 2004 (productivity and mortality costs) and then a relevant index has been used to bring them to 2013-14 prices 22
Calculated as the reduction in casesperson per year multiplied by the value of the cost of gastroenteritis per case Calculations have been made prior to rounding 23
NSW Office of Water assumption of 25 peoplehousehold 31
1 Water Upgrade Project
Involves upgrading the water supply system in order to meet NHMRC guidelines on health criteria Households will be able to avoid expenditure on kitchen tap filtration systems with an average capital cost of $400 every 10 years and $200year spent each year on filter cartridges per household The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is therefore $240household24
2 Water Provision Project
Involves the provision of a reticulated water supply Households will be able to avoid expenditure on purchasing waterwater carting The estimated annual household expenditure used in this CBA is $750household25
3 Sewerage Augmentation Project
Involves the upgrading of existing sewerage system impacting on health and sewerage effluent management Under these circumstances households are unlikely to incur extra expenditure
4 Sewerage Provision Project
Involves the provision of sewerage services to an unsewered community Households without sewerage services generally operate septic tanks and costs incurred include desludging of the tank costing $1500 every three years and restoration of the septic pits costing $3000 every 10 years Some households with septic tanks may face much higher annual costs including those that are prevented from having septic pits and must regularly empty their septic tanks (similar to regular garbage collection) resulting in costs of $2000household per year This CBA therefore assumes that households in this category spend $800household per year on desludging and restoring their septic systems26
As the majority of this work would be undertaken by local tradespeople all household costs have been discounted by 10 per cent in accordance with previous agreement with NSW Treasury
Table 2 Summary of Household Expenditure
Type of Project Type of Expenditure Benefit from Reduced Per Person Expenditure ($year)27
Water Upgrade Water Filtration $8640
Water Provision Water Carting $27000
Sewerage Augmentation No additional expenditure na
Sewerage Provision Septic Tank Costs $28800
Additional Unquantified Benefits
Productivity costs
Use of the average daily earnings to calculate productivity losses are likely to underestimate the true economic cost due to additional administration and lost productivity costs (Corso Kramer et al 2003 Pidd Berry et al 2006)
Epidemic Risk
24 Annual Expenditure on Water Filtration = $40010 + $200 = $240household per year
25 NoW advises that water carting for 16 regional towns in 2013 and 2014 had a median cost of $25kL [range $11
to $60kL] The median household water use was 500Ld for these towns For an average of 60 days of water cartingyear this would result in an annual cost of $750household [60 x 05kL x $25kL] 26
Annual Expenditure on Septic Tank Maintenance = $15003 + $300010 = $800household per year 27
Benefit = Total Household Expenditureyear25x09 32
The incidence rates used to calculate the benefits of reduced cases of gastroenteritisdiarrhoea refer to the endemic or underlying risk in contracting these illnesses Epidemic risks or outbreaks while rare are still possible in developed nations including Australia
For instance the hepatitis outbreak of Wallis Lake in 1997 was linked to septic tank effluent contamination of oysters Consumption of these oysters was responsible for an estimated 444 cases of hepatitis A across Australia including 274 cases in New South Wales Nearly one in seven cases was hospitalised with one mortality recorded In addition to the healthcare costs oyster producers the local fishing industry and accommodation sector were estimated to have lost net income of $17 million in 1997 (Applied Economics Pty Ltd 2006)
In 1993 a waterborne cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee Wisconsin was caused by ineffective filtration of drinking water It affected an estimated 403000 residents with an average cost of illness of US$239 per person including medical and productivity costs for a total cost of US$962 million However this cost estimate is likely to be conservative as there are some medical costs there were unable to be captured with the costs of tourists and visitors not considered while productivity losses may have been greater if they extended beyond the four-month scope of the study (Corso Kramer et al 2003)
In Walkerton Canada there was a serious outbreak of E coli due to farm run off contaminating a drinking well in 2000 This incident resulted in thousands of cases of illness and seven deaths and cost CA$65 million There was little effort to protect the source water from faecal contamination deficient chlorination practice and a failure to respond to poor test results (Livernois 2002 OrsquoConnor 2002)
More recently in August 2009 there was a large outbreak following the contamination of drinking water in the privately operated ski resort of Smiggin Holes NSW Healthrsquos investigation found that more than 370 of approximately 800 people developed gastroenteritis in a single week
The inability to quantify the risk of epidemic outbreak in this analysis results in significant underestimation of not only the avoided health and productivity costs but also community state and national reputation A town that is known not to have water quality or sewerage systems that meet health standards is less likely to attract business investment and tourists which results in foregone household income
Environmental Damage
Sewerage systems and treatment plants may reduce environmental damage associated with untreated discharge into waterways In addition to the public health benefits this may also avoid losses of recreational utility and reduce environmental damage For instance untreated discharge can be responsible for increases nitrogen levels in waterways leading to algal blooms which are disruptive to the ecological balance in the receiving waters
Untreated upstream sewage discharges into rivers can detrimentally affect downstream users of these rivers especially if the water is their primary source of drinking water andor is used for recreational activities which could pose a public health risk and add to the costs of treatment
In addition waterways polluted with partially treated or untreated sewage can severely affect oyster farming and other aquacultural activities that are located downstream of the discharge points leading to outbreaks of illness within the community and erosion of economic viability of these industries
Indexation and Discount Rate
33
Consistent with the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (p52) the costs and benefits of the proposed project have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum
However some of the cost bases are growing at different rates to inflation and a more suitable index is available These costs have been indexed by the relevant 10-year trend annual growth rate28 in order to maintain its current value and then discounted by a nominal discount rate of 967 per cent to achieve a 7 per cent real discount rate29
1 Healthcare Costs by 272 per cent based on the Total Health Price Index from 2002shy03 to 2012-13 (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014)
2 Productivity Costs by 329 per cent based on the NSW Total Average Weekly Earnings from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of November and May data) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
3 Mortality Costs by 25 per cent with inflation assumed as the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia target band
4 Construction Costs by 278 per cent based on the NSW Output of the Construction industries index from 2003-04 to 2013-14 (average of four quarters) (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014)
OMA costs Typical Residential Bills (TRBs) and avoided household expenditure have been held constant over time and discounted by a 7 per cent real discount rate Where applicable the average rate of inflation over the time period has been assumed as 25 per cent the midpoint of the target band
Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Analysis Period
A project period of 30 years has been adopted for the analysis It has been assumed that all costs are incurred in 2016-17 (Year 3) It is further assumed that benefits begin the year after construction in 2017-18 (Year 4) and continue for 30 years ending in 2046-47 (Year 33) Residual benefits from the constructed capital are then calculated for 2047-48 (Year 34)
Results and Discussion
On the basis that no subsidy will be made available to LWUs for the 62 projects in the absence of the CTWSSP and that these projects will not be undertaken without such a subsidy 52 (84 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return to the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution with a program-wide net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $174 million (net present value) with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 154
Taking into account the entire capital cost of each project (LWU plus CTWSSP subsidy) 17 (27 per cent) of the projects are estimated to provide a positive return and the program is estimated to provide a net benefit (sum of the 62 projects) of $37 million (NPV) with a BCR of 101
However caution is recommended when considering these estimates as there are a number of reasons to believe them to be significant underestimates First many of the benefit parameters are conservative as has been explained in the ldquoProgram Benefitsrdquo section Secondly there are numerous benefits that have not been able to be quantified particularly the reduced risk of epidemic and environmental damage Lastly the lsquoco-paymentrsquo design of the CTWSS Program encourages LWUs to carefully consider community benefits before
28 Calculated using Excelrsquos LOGEST function which returns statistical information on the exponential curve of best
fit through a supplied set of x- and y-values 29
Nominal discount rate for real rate of 7 assuming 25 (midpoint of target band) inflation = 107x103 ndash 1 = 1021
34
deciding on whether to proceed with a subsidised project and this will significantly improve overall Program net benefit
This latter point requires further explanation Each LWU will decide whether or not individual projects will proceed based on its assessment of the projectrsquos net benefits from the local communityrsquos perspective As LWUs are best placed to make such assessments it is probable that many projects will be deemed by LWUs to generate benefits that were not able to be quantified in this analysis Consequently LWUs may choose to proceed with some projects that have been estimated in this analysis to result in net costs because the LWU has concluded that total project benefits exceed costs Hence the proportion of projects that yield positive net benefits is likely to have been underestimated above
Similarly the estimated total program net benefit estimates above are also likely to be underestimated as they assume that all 62 projects will be undertaken The fact that LWUs ultimately decide which projects proceed will likely result in the ex post program net benefit rising as those projects with the greatest net benefits are most likely to be undertaken while those with the greatest net costs are less likely to be undertaken Hence project self-selection by LWUs will improve overall program net benefits
While the above program-wide results for both the return to the NSW Government contribution and total capital cost are considered to be significant underestimates of the eventual net benefits of the program the program is nevertheless predicted to yield net benefits on both measures Given that most projects that are estimated to result in net costs are only marginally negative (see Appendix C2) and that the program-wide results are likely to be improved upon through project self-selection by LWUs it is recommended that the maximum level of Government subsidy of $112 million be made available to ensure that LWUs are given the choice of proceeding with all projects and therefore enabling self-selection efficiencies to be realised It is recognised that this approach may result in some uncommitted funds if projects are not undertaken
Sensitivity Analysis
As per the NSW Government Guidelines for Economic Appraisal (TTP07-5) the government costs and benefits of the proposed projects have been converted to present values assuming a real discount rate of 7 per cent per annum As recommended by the Guidelines sensitivity testing has been undertaken using 4 per cent and 10 per cent as the real discount rate
Table 3 Sensitivity to real discount rate for NSW Government contribution costs
Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate 4 7 10
(default)
Percentage of 62 Projects with Positive NPV
97 84 56
Program NPV ($ million) $174 $329 $94
Program BCR 152 171 137
As shown in the table above while the results demonstrate some sensitivity to discount rate the project represents a net increase in economic welfare based on the Governmentrsquos contribution for all tested discount rates
35
Recommendation
Assuming that no CTWSSP projects will not proceed without financial assistance from the NSW Government this analysis estimates that extension of the program would result in a net benefit from the NSW Governmentrsquos contribution ($174 million) and from the total capital cost ($37 million) As the above estimates are considered underestimates because (i) conservative benefit parameters were used (ii) some benefits could not be quantified and (iii) project self-selection will result in only those projects generating benefits being undertaken it is recommended that the NSW Government make available the maximum level of contribution ($112 million) under the Program for the 62 identified projects
Nathan Lee Angus Bristow Analyst Economic Statistics amp Analysis Senior Manager Economic Statistics amp Analysis Strategic Policy amp Economics Strategic Policy amp Economics Tel 6391 3605 Date 24102014
Stewart Webster Director Investment Appraisal Statistical Analysis amp Research Strategic Policy amp Economics
36
Appendix C1 ndash CBA Results
Table 4 Summary of CBA Results (considering NSW Government Contribution 7 real discount rate)
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
1 Essential Water Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 61189 269 Management Augmentation
2 Lachlan Shire Council Lachlan Shire Sewerage Sewerage 23925 267 Effluent Management Augmentation
3 Cobar Shire Council Cobar Water Supply Water Upgrade 16167 217 Augmentation
4 Wentworth Shire Wentworth Shire Sewerage Sewerage 11238 227 Council Scheme Augmentation
5 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Sewerage Effluent Sewerage 6228 200 Management Augmentation
6 Bourke Shire Council Bourke Water Supply Water Upgrade 6179 146 Augmentation
7 Oberon Council Oberon Sewerage Sewerage 5939 177 Augmentation
8 Warrumbungle Shire Coonabarabran Sewerage Sewerage 5869 165 Council Augmentation Augmentation
9 Murrumbidgee Shire Darlington Pt Water Supply Water Upgrade 3733 255 Council
10 Tamworth Regional Barraba Sewerage Sewerage 3683 178 Council Augmentation
11 Narrabri Shire Council Wee Waa Sewerage Sewerage 3285 142 Augmentation
12 Weddin Shire Council Grenfell Sewerage Sewerage 3243 137 Augmentation
13 Jerilderie Shire Council Jerilderie Water Supply Water Upgrade 3055 166 Augmentation
14 Carrathool Shire Council Hillston Sewerage Sewerage 2630 177 Augmentation
15 Essential Water Menindee Water Supply Water Upgrade 2365 184
16 Wagga Wagga City San Isidore Sewerage Sewerage 1708 228 Council Provision
17 MidCoast County Coomba Park Sewerage Sewerage 1468 111 Council Provision
18 Moree Plains Shire Ashley Water Supply Water Provision 1367 163 Council
19 Yass Valley Council Bowning Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 1188 135 Villages) Provision
20 Warrumbungle Shire Coolah Sewerage Sewerage 1184 129 Council Augmentation
21 Wingecarribee Shire Yerrinbool Sewerage Sewerage 1141 110 Council Provision
22 Uralla Shire Council Bundarra Sewerage Sewerage 1041 133 Provision
23 Coolamon Shire Council Ardlethan Sewerage Sewerage 962 130 Provision
24 MidCoast County North Arm Cove Sewerage Sewerage 951 114 Council Provision
25 Mid-Western Regional Charbon Sewerage Sewerage 894 121 Council Provision
26 Essential Water Silverton Water Supply Water Provision 763 120
27 MidCoast County Pindimar Sewerage Sewerage 629 115 Council Provision
28 Walgett Shire Council Cumborah Water Supply Water Provision 602 181
29 Eurobodalla Shire Mystery Bay Sewerage Sewerage 542 115 Council Provision
37
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of NPV ($ BCR Project 000)
30 Griffith City Council Lake Wyangan Sewerage Sewerage 524 132 Provision
31 Narrandera Shire Barellan Sewerage Sewerage 521 113 Council Provision
32 Port Macquarie- Telegraph Point Sewerage Sewerage 514 123 Hastings Council Provision
33 Eurobodalla Shire Nelligen Sewerage Sewerage 488 116 Council Provision
34 Singleton Shire Council Bulga Water Supply Water Provision 464 123
35 Griffith City Council Tharbogang Sewerage Sewerage 403 149 Provision
36 Murray Shire Council Bunnaloo Water Supply Water Upgrade 399 179
37 MidCoast County Nerong Sewerage Sewerage 381 110 Council Provision
38 MidCoast County Allworth Sewerage Sewerage 379 111 Council Provision
39 Moree Plains Shire Biniguy Water Supply Water Provision 368 125 Council
40 Yass Valley Council Binalong Sewerage (Yass Sewerage 355 109 Villages) Provision
41 Wellington Council Stuart Town Water Supply Water Provision 323 139
42 MidCoast County Bundabah Sewerage Sewerage 263 110 Council Provision
43 Liverpool Plains Shire Wallabadah Sewerage Sewerage 200 103 Council Provision
44 Cabonne Council Yeoval Water Supply Water Upgrade 159 106
45 Eurobodalla Shire Potato Point Sewerage Sewerage 127 104 Council Provision
46 Eurobodalla Shire Congo Sewerage Sewerage 114 104 Council Provision
47 Leeton Shire Council Wamoon Sewerage Sewerage 83 104 Provision
48 Upper Hunter Shire Cassilis Sewerage Sewerage 58 103 Council Provision
49 MidCoast County Stroud Road Sewerage Sewerage 22 101 Council Provision
50 Port Macquarie- Comboyne Sewerage Sewerage 18 101 Hastings Council Provision
51 Port Macquarie- Long Flat Sewerage Sewerage 8 100 Hastings Council Provision
52 Liverpool Plains Shire Willow Tree Sewerage Sewerage 5 100 Council Provision
53 Eurobodalla Shire Central Tilba Sewerage Sewerage -175 094 Council Provision
54 Warren Shire Council Warren Sewerage Sewerage -273 098 Augmentation
55 Griffith City Council Nericon Sewerage Sewerage -292 078 Provision
56 Warrumbungle Shire Mendooran Sewerage Sewerage -352 092 Council Provision
57 Singleton Shire Council Camberwell Water Supply Water Provision -425 081
58 Kempsey Shire Council Bellbrook Sewerage Sewerage -565 088 Provision
59 Clarence Valley Council Ulmarra Sewerage Sewerage -692 091 Provision
60 Lachlan Shire Council Tottenham Water Supply Water Upgrade -741 086
61 Central Darling Shire White Cliffs Water Supply Water Upgrade -921 080 Council
38
Local Water Utility Project Name Type of Project
NPV ($ 000)
BCR
62 Kempsey Shire Council Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Sewerage Provision
-1322 090
SUM OF 62 PROJECTS 173587 152
39
Appendix C2 ndash Individual Project NPV Chart
Figure 1 Government Contribution Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Tottenham Water Supply
Ulmarra Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Camberwell Water Supply
Mendooran Sewerage
Nericon Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Central Tilba Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Long Flat Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Cassilis Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Wallabadah Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Stuart Town Water Supply
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Biniguy Water Supply
Allworth Sewerage
Nerong Sewerage
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Nelligen Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Pindimar Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Ashley Water Supply
Coomba Park Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Menindee Water Supply
Hillston Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Grenfell Sewerage
Wee Waa Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Government Cost NPV ($ 000)
Figure 2 Total Capital Cost NPV ($ lsquo000)
40
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Coomba Park Sewerage
Stuarts Point Grassy Head Sewerage
Wallabadah Sewerage
Warren Sewerage
Ulmarra Sewerage
North Arm Cove Sewerage
Yerrinbool Sewerage
Bellbrook Sewerage
Willow Tree Sewerage
Silverton Water Supply
Nerong Sewerage
White Cliffs Water Supply
Charbon Sewerage
Pindimar Sewerage
Mendooran Sewerage
Allworth Sewerage
Tottenham Water Supply
Central Tilba Sewerage
Mystery Bay Sewerage
Stroud Road Sewerage
Bundabah Sewerage
Congo Sewerage
Potato Point Sewerage
Bowning Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Binalong Sewerage (Yass Villages)
Camberwell Water Supply
Long Flat Sewerage
Bulga Water Supply
Cassilis Sewerage
Barellan Sewerage
Nelligen Sewerage
Comboyne Sewerage
Wamoon Sewerage
Yeoval Water Supply
Nericon Sewerage
Telegraph Point Sewerage
Lake Wyangan Sewerage
Biniguy Water Supply
Ardlethan Sewerage
Bundarra Sewerage
Coolah Sewerage
Grenfell Sewerage
Ashley Water Supply
Stuart Town Water Supply
Tharbogang Sewerage
Cumborah Water Supply
Bunnaloo Water Supply
Menindee Water Supply
Wee Waa Sewerage
San Isidore Sewerage
Hillston Sewerage
Barraba Sewerage
Jerilderie Water Supply Augmentation
Darlington Pt Water Supply
Coonabarabran Sewerage Augmentation
Oberon Sewerage
Bourke Water Supply Augmentation
Bourke Sewerage Effluent Management
Wentworth Shire Sewerage Scheme
Cobar Water Supply Augmentation
Lachlan Shire Sewerage Effluent Management
Broken Hill Sewerage Effluent Management
Total Capital Cost NPV ($ 000)
41
Benefit Cost Analysis Bibliography Applied Economics Pty Ltd (2006) The annual cost of foodborne illness in Australia Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Average Weekly Earnings Australia cat no 63020 (Table 13A)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Producer Price Indexes Australia cat no 64270 (Table 17)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014) Health Expenditure Australia 2012-13
Comcare (2011) Benefits To Business-the evidence for investing in worker health and wellbeing
Corso P S et al (2003) Cost of Illness in the 1993 Waterborne Cryptosporidium Outbreak Milwaukee Wisconsin Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(4)
Econtech Pty Ltd (2007) Economic modelling of the cost of presenteeism in Australia Medibank Private
Fewtrell L et al (2005) Water sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 5 42shy52
Gibney K B et al (2012) Establishing Australian Health-Based Targets for Microbial Water Quality Water Quality Research Australia Ltd Final Report 100409
Hall G et al (2004) Results from the National Gastroenteritis Survey 2001 ndash 2002 National Centre for Epidemiology amp Population Health
Kirk M et al (2014) Foodborne illness in Australia Annual incidence circa 2010 Australian Government Department of Health New South Wales Food Authority and Food Standards Australia New Zealand
Livernois J (2002) The Economic Costs of the Walkerton Water Crisis Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General
Medibank Private (2007) Sick at work The cost of presenteeism to your business employees and the economy
Medibank Private (2011) Sick at Work The cost of presenteeism to your business and the economy
Norman G et al (2010) Effects of sewerage on diarrhoea and enteric infections a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet Infect Dis 10 536-544
NSW Office Of Water (2014) 2012-13 NSW Water Supply and Sewerage Performance Monitoring Report
OrsquoConnor D R (2002) Walkerton Report Part 1 Ontario Ministry of the Attorney Genera
Pidd K J et al (2006) Estimating the cost of alcohol-related absenteeism in teh Australian workforce-the importance of consumption patterns Medical Journal of Australia 185(1112)
Scott W G et al (2000) Economic cost to New Zealand of foodborne infectious disease NZ Med J 113 881-884
42
Van der Wielen M et al (2010) Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life data from the REVEAL study BMC Fam Pract 11(22)
Wilking H et al (2013) Acute gastrointestinal illness in adults in Germany a population-based telephone survey Epidemiol Infect 141 2365-2375
43