expedia (expe) earnings report: q4 2015 conference call ...speaking of m&a, 2015 was an...

CompanyName:ExpediaIncCompanyTicker:EXPESector:ServicesIndustry:Leisure

EventDescription:Q42015EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:12.68BPriceasofEventDate:102.38

©2014TheStreet,Inc.Al l R ightsReserved Page1of23

Expedia(EXPE)EarningsReport:Q42015ConferenceCallTranscriptThefollowingExpediaconferencecalltookplaceonFebruary10,2016,04:30PMET.Thisisatranscriptofthatearningscall:

CompanyPart icipants

AlanPickerill;Expedia,Inc;VPofIRDaraKhosrowshahi;Expedia,Inc;PresidentandCEOMarkOkerstrom;Expedia,Inc;EVP,OperationsandCFO

OtherPart icipants

JustinPost;BofAMerrillLynch;AnalystMarkMahaney;RBCCapitalMarkets;AnalystNavedKhan;CantorFitzgerald;AnalystTomWhite;Macquarie;AnalystBrianFitzgerald;Jefferies;AnalystMikeOlsen;PiperJaffray;AnalystDouglasAnmuth;JPMorgan;AnalystLloydWalmsley;DeutscheBank;AnalystEricSheridan;UBS;AnalystJedKelly;Oppenheimer;AnalystStephenJu;CreditSuisse;AnalystRonJosey;JMPSecurities;AnalystKenSena;EvercoreISI;AnalystMichaelMillman;MillmanResearchAssociates;AnalystPeterStabler;WellsFargoSecurities;AnalystKevinKopelman;CowenandCompany;AnalystJustinPatterson;RaymondJames;AnalystDanWasiolek;Morningstar;Analyst

MANAGEMENTDISCUSSIONSECTION

Operator :

WelcometotheExpedia'sQ42015earningscall.

Today'sconferenceisbeingrecorded.

AtthistimeIwouldliketoturntheconferenceovertoAlanPickerill,VicePresident,InvestorRelationsatExpedia.Pleasegoahead,sir.

AlanPickerill(VPofIR):

Thankyou.Goodafternoon,everybody.WelcometoExpediaInc.'sfinancialresultsconferencecallforthefourthquarterandthefullyearendedDecember31,2015.

I'mpleasedtobejoinedonthecalltodaybyDaraKhosrowshahi,Expedia'sCEOandPresident;andMark




Okerstrom,ourCFOandEVP,Operations.

Thefollowingdiscussion,includingresponsestoyourquestions,reflectsmanagement'sviewsasoftodayFebruary10,2016,only.Wedonotundertakeanyobligationtoupdateorrevisethisinformation.

Asalways,someofthestatementsmadeontoday'scallareforward-looking,typicallyprecededbywordssuchasweexpect,webelieve,weanticipateorsimilarstatements.Pleaserefertotoday'spressreleaseandtheCompany'sfilingswiththeSECforinformationaboutfactorswhichcouldcauseouractualresultstodiffermateriallyfromtheseforward-lookingstatements.

You'llfindreconciliationsofournon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPmeasuresdiscussedtodayinourearningsrelease,whichispostedontheCompany'sIRwebsiteatir.expediainc.com.IencourageyoutoperiodicallyvisitourInvestorRelationssiteforimportantcontent,includingtoday'searningsreleaseandanupdatedinvestordeck.

Asareminder,wesoldour62.4%ownershipstakeineLongonMay22,2015,whichwaspreviouslyaconsolidatedentityofExpedia,Inc.ForGAAPaccountingpurposes,theresultsofeLongareincludedinourresultsthroughthedateofthesale.Butinordertoallowinvestorstocompareourcurrentresultsonalike-for-likebasiswithourhistoricalresults,ourcommentaryintheearningsreleaseandonthiscallisprincipallyfocusedonourresultsexcludingeLong,whichshouldbeconsideredinadditiontotheGAAPresultsonafullyconsolidatedbasis.

Finally,unlessotherwisestated,allreferencestocostofrevenues,sellingandmarketingexpense,generalandadministrativeexpense,andtechnologyandcontentexpensealsoexcludesstock-basedcompensationanddepreciationexpense,andallcomparisonsonthiscallwillbeagainstourresultsforthecomparableperiodof2014.

Andwiththat,letmeturnthecallovertoDara.

DaraKhosrowshahi(PresidentandCEO):

Thanks,Alan.IwantedtostartrightupfrontthankingouremployeesallovertheworldforanotherstrongyearforExpedia,Inc.Mark,AlanandIgettotellyouaboutandtakepubliccreditforthesuccessofourCompany,butit'sanamalgamationofeveryone'sdedicationandgoodworkthataddsuptothefiguresthatwewillreviewtoday.Andthefigurestellaconsistentlystrongstory.

Grossbookingsfor2015up24%to$59.7billionandtotalrevenueup19%to$6.6billion.Ourcustomersbought35%moreairlinetickets,36%moreroomnightstotalingmorethan$200millionfortheyear,and37%morecardaysin2015versus2014.Wedeliverednearly$1.2billionofadjustedEBITDAfortheyear,impressiveinitsownright,butespeciallysowhenyouconsiderthehugeheadwindsfromforeigncurrency,thesignificantinvestmentswearemakinginresettingourcontractedmarginstructurewithourhotelpartners,andthedeal-relatedcoststhatweincurredinconnectionwithourbusyyearofM&Aactivity.

SpeakingofM&A,2015wasanunprecedentedyearforExpediaaswecompletedover$6billionofstrategicacquisitions,whichincludedTravelocity,amajoritystakeinourAirAsiajointventure,asignificantminorityinvestmentinDecolar,OrbitzWorldwide,andmostrecently,ourlargestacquisitioneverinHomeAway.ThesetransactionshaveconsolidatedandscaledourUSoperations,extendedourinternationalreach,andhaveopenedupanewlegofgrowthinthealternativeaccommodationsector.

WealsodivestedourstakeineLongforaniceprofitandenteredintoalong-termalliancewithCtrip.

BrieflyonOrbitz,theintegrationisprogressingwellwithnearlyallofthedirecttypeintrafficofOrbitz.comandCheapTicketsalreadyontheBrandExpediaplatform.It'searly,butresultssofarlook




promising.Themigrationworkwillcontinuethroughthefirsthalfof2016,followedbyoptimizingthesitesandtuningtheirvariablemarketingchannelspostmigration.

WearealsoactivelyworkingonotherpartsoftheOrbitzbusiness,includingeBooker's,HotelClub,OrbitzPartnerNetwork,andOrbitzforBusiness.OurgoalistomigratethevastmajorityofourOrbitzforBusinessclientsontotheEgenciaplatformbeforeyear-end.

WearealsoinactivedialoguewithourOPNprivate-labelpartnersonexpandingourrelationshipswiththem,andweseetheseeffortscarryingthrough2016andinto2017forcertainpartners.

Movingforward,weareplanningtoinvestaggressivelyinourprivate-labelandpartnershipcapabilitiesandconsiderthisareahighlystrategicforourCompany.

IwillalsoaddthatweareverypleasedwiththetalentlevelandexecutioncapabilityofourOrbitzteamsallovertheworld.Thepeopleandthebrandswehaveaddedtoourfamilywillpayanimportantroleinourfuturesuccess.

It'sveryearly,butweareencouragedwithHomeAway'sQ4performancecominginabitaheadofourexpectationsandhavebeenconsistentlyimpressedwiththeleveloftalentthere.HomeAwaywillbeoperatedlargelyasastandalonebusinessandwillserveastheendtoendvacationrentalandhomesharingplatformfortheExpediaInc.family.

Thatsaid,weplantobehighlyevolvedwiththeHomeAwayteam,helpingthemexpandaggressivelyandmovefromtheirtraditionallistingsmodeltoafullyonlinetransactionalmodel.Theteamisbeginningtointroduceaservicefeetotravelers,andweexpectthatitwillbefullylaunchedonitsUSvacationrentallistingsinthecomingmonths,slightlyaheadofschedule.

Aroundthesametimewe'rerollingoutlowersuppliercommissionsforpaperbookinglistings,aswellasabookwithconfidenceguarantee,whichisdesignedtoencouragetravelerstobookonHomeAwayandgivethemincreasedpeaceofmindwhentheydo.

Westartedanintegratedmarketingcampaigninsomeofourmajormarketsandintendtoreinvestincrementalupsidefromtravelfeesbackintothebusiness,particularlyinproducttechnologyandmarketing.Weremainconfidentinourestimateof$350millioninadjustedEBITDAforHomeAwayin2018.

WecontinuedtoseestronggrowthforTrivagoinQ4and,infact,forallof2015.We'vehadsomeinvestorquestionsinregardstoTrivago'scoregrowthandprofitability,andwewouldliketosharesomenumbersforEuropeanmarketsversustherestoftheworld.Totakeoutthenoisecreatedbyforeignexchangefluctuations,thenumbersherearestatedineuro.

Trivagodelivered2015standalonerevenueofroughlyEUR490million,upnearly60%yearoveryearwithadjustedEBITDAofafewmillioneuro.Nowwithinthesenumbers,theirmostmatureEuropeanmarketscollectivelyhadrevenueofoverEUR250million,up20%yearoveryear,andwithacontributionmarginafterdirectmarketingcostsofabout25%.Trivago'srestofworldmarketshadrevenueofEUR235million,upnearly130%andacontributionmarginjustabovebreakeven.

NotealsothatoverheadcostsforTrivagohavebeenrunningintheneighborhoodof10%ofrevenue.WhileweexpectTrivagotoachievehealthytopandbottomlinegrowthin2016,wewillcontinuetoreinvestprofitsfromcoremarketstofurtherscaleinexpansionmarketsonaworldwidebasis.TheTrivagoteam'sfirstrateandwebelievethattheglobalgrowthrunwayforthisbrandcontinuestobesubstantial.

Lastly,underpinningouractiveM&Astrategyandinvestmentinhigh-growthbusinessesisacoreorganicbusinessthathasneverbeenstronger.BrandExpedia,Hotels.com,ourExpediaAffiliateNetworkbusinessallhadterrificyears,deliveringhealthyroomnightandadjustedEBITDAgrowth.Egencia,our




corporatetravelbusiness,hadanotherexcellentyear,signingupover$1.1billionofnewclientbusinessanddelivering12%adjustedEBITDAgrowth.Supportingallofourbrands,ourlodgingsupplyteamisalsofiringonallcylinders,signingupnearly60,000newdirectlycontractedhotelpropertiesin2015,upover30%yearonyear.

SinceIopenedmyremarkswithouraccomplishmentsasaCompany,Iwillclosewithsomethoughtsaboutkeychallenges.Competitionforconsumerattentionisasstrongaseverasourcompetitorsandinsomecaseourpartnersinvestandinnovateaggressively.

Wearealsojumpingintothealternativeaccommodationspacewherethere'salreadyasizablecompetitorandwherewehaveasignificantbusinessmodeltransitiontoundertakeatHomeAway.AndasIdescribed,wehaveheavyintegrationworkwithOrbitz.Thesemanners,alongwithavolatileglobalmacroeconomicclimate,togethercreateaverydynamicandchallengingenvironmenttosaytheleast.

Thatsaid,ourbusinessesandourteamsarenostrangerstothesekindsofchallenges.We'refocused,wearehungry,wehaveanestablishedexecutionandcapitalallocationrecord,andwetakethesechallengesheadonandwithconfidence.

Withthat,I'llhandittoMark.

MarkOkerstrom(EVP,OperationsandCFO):

Thanks,Dara.OnequickreminderbeforeIgetstarted.Aswasthecaselastquarter,inordertohelpwithcomparability,ourcommentstodayarefocusedonExpediaresultsexcludingeLongsincewesoldour62%ineLonglastMay.FinancialresultsforthatbusinessareincludedinourGAAPresultsonaconsolidatedbasisthroughthedateofthesale.

Wewerequitepleasedwithourfinancialperformanceinthefourthquarterandforthefullyear2015,excludinganestimatedheadwindof$10millionto$15millionfromtheimpactoftheterroristattacksinParisandthenegativeimpactofHomeAwayinthequarternotcontemplatedinourpriorguidance.Ourfull-year2015adjustedEBITDAgrowthexceededtheguidancewegaveonourQ3call.

Inthefourthquarter,toplinegrowthwasdrivenbysolidunitgrowthacrossproducts,geographiesandmajorbrands.Ofcourse,wearegettingaboostasweconsolidateOrbitz,butdespitethelawoflargenumbers,ourorganicgrowthratescontinuetobeveryhealthyandcomparabletotheratesofgrowthwe'veseenforthelastcoupleofyears.

Inhotel,revenuegrew24%onroomnightgrowthof39%.Theinorganiccontributionstohotelrevenueandroomnightgrowthwere14and15percentagepointsrespectively.WeestimatethenegativeimpactfromPariswasaround300basispointsforbothmeasures.Revenueperroomnightwasdown11%inQ4ona5%declineinaveragedailyrates.

NotethattheGAAPbetweenrevenueperroomnightandADRsnarrowedthisquartercomparedtoQ3,principallyonreducedforeignexchangeimpacts.Wedoexpecttoseecontinuedyear-over-yearpressureonrevenueperroomnightin2016aswetradesomeofouruniteconomicstodrivevolumeandglobalscale.

Airrevenuewasup61%onticketgrowthof70%,partiallyoffsetbyadeclineinrevenueperticketof5%.

BrandExpediacontinuedtogrowticketvolumeatahealthyorganicrate,alongwiththesizablecontributionsfromrecentlyacquiredcompanies.Excludingacquisitions,airrevenuegrew6%onticketgrowthof22%.

Keytoourstrategyistogrowadditionaltravelproductsalongsideairticketsandroomnights.Wewere




pleasedtoseesomegoodexamplesofthisinQ4,including66%transactiongrowthforourlocalactivitiesbusinessand43%revenuegrowthforourinsuranceproduct.

WealsocontinuetoseesolidgrowthinouradvertisingandmediabusinesswithTrivagogrowingstandalonerevenue27%orapproximately43%currencyneutral,fairlyconsistentwiththeyear-over-yeargrowthwesawinQ3.MediaSolutionsalsogrewrevenuenicelywithaboostfromtheadditionofOrbitz.

HomeAwayfinished2015stronglyandabitaheadoftheirplansasmeasuredonastandalonebasis.ForExpedia,Inc.,HomeAwaycontributedrevenuethisquarterofapproximately$20million,whichhasbeenclassifiedasotherrevenueinourproductclassification.WearebreakingoutHomeAwayasaseparatesegment,soyouwillbeabletoseetheirstandaloneperformanceonanongoingbasis.BecauseHomeAwayisintheprocessofmovingtoanonlinebookingmodelandafairbitofthebookingsstilloccuroutsideoftheplatform,we'renotplanningtoreportgrossbookingsorunitgrowthforthatbusinessatthistime.

AlthoughtheseasonalityofourbusinesscancausetheshapeofourP&Ltovaryquartertoquarter,wecontinuetodrivetoresultsthatuseleverageachievedinkeyexpensecategoriestofundaggressivesellingandmarketinginvestmentsaroundtheworld.InQ4,excludingtheimpactsfromOrbitzandHomeAway,theP&Lwedeliveredwaslargelyconsistentwiththisapproach.Sellingandmarketinggrewabitfasterthanrevenue,whilecostofrevenueandG&Agrewslowerprovidingleverage.

Ourtechnologyandcontentexpensesdidgrowfasterthanrevenueandnearly6percentagepointsfasterthanQ3onacombinationofhigherpeoplecostsalongwithlowercapitalizationrates.

WecontinuetoscaleupourcoreinfrastructureandBrandExpediatechnologyteamstosupportorganicgrowthandtodrivetheintegrationofournewOTAbrands.Andassuch,weareexpectingelevatedtechnologyandcontentexpensegrowthatleastthroughthefirsthalfof2016.

Importantly,ourresultsforQ4includedthefirstfullquarterofOrbitzandthelayeringinoftheHomeAwaystandalonefinancialsforthe17daysofthequarterthatweownedthebusiness.

TheoperationsofOrbitzforafullquarter,alongwithdeal-relatedandintegrationcosts,resultedinanapproximatebreakevenadjustedEBITDAcontributionforthatbusinessinQ4,whichincludedapurchaseaccountingrevenueheadwindofapproximately$27million.

Overall,theOrbitzresultswereabitbetterthanwehadexpectedonacombinationoflowerintegrationcostsandbetteroverallperformance.

HomeAwayhadanegativeimpactonadjustedEBITDAof$14millioninQ4,notcontemplatedintheguidancewegaveonourQ3call.Thisincludedtheresultsofthebusiness,thenegativeimpactofdeal-relatedcosts,andapurchaseaccountingrevenueheadwindofapproximately$6million.

Briefly,asweenteranewyear,Iwouldliketoremindfolksofafewkeyaspectsofhowwemanagethebusiness.Wearecommittedtostrikingabalancebetweendeliveringhealthyprofitgrowthinthenearandmidtermwhilemakingkeyinvestmentsinourbusinessthatwillallowustogrowsustainablyovermanyyearstocome.

Fromapracticalperspective,thismeansthatwhenweseecertainupsideand/oroutperformancefrommonthtomonthorquartertoquarter,includingfromacquisitions,wehaveabiastoreinvestatleastaportionofthatupsidebackintothebusiness.Aspartofthisapproach,wedonotguidetoquarterlyresults,andinvestorsshouldnotexpecttoseethefullamountoforganicoverperformanceorM&Arelatedwindfallsdropimmediatelytothebottomline.Thisisanimportanttenetforhowwearerunningourbusiness,andwewantinvestorstofullyunderstandthisapproach.




Turningtoourfinancialexpectationsfor2016,onaconsolidatedbasis,includingallofthebusinessesweowntodayandexcludingeLong,weareexpectingfull-yearadjustedEBITDAtogrowintherangeof35%to45%yearoveryear.ThecontributiontothisresultfromafullyearofOrbitzandHomeAwaycombinedisexpectedtobeintherangeof$275millionto$325million.

Intermsoftheshapeoftheyear,weareexpectingparticularpressureonQ1adjustedEBITDA.Duetotheseasonalnatureofourbusiness,backendloadingofadjustedEBITDAdollargrowthisnotunusual,thoughwedoexpecttheimpactwillbeespeciallyacutein2016.ThisisdueprimarilytotheintegrationofOrbitzandthetimingofsynergyrealization,whichwillrampinthebackhalfoftheyear,alongwiththetransitionatHomeAway.

Asafurtherreminder,notethatwelappedouracquisitionofWotifinthefourthquarterof2015andwilllapboththeTravelocityacquisitionandtheconsolidationoftheAirAsiaExpediajointventureinQ1,whichwillcreatetoughercomps.Further,therolloutofTripAdvisor'sInstantBookproductwillalsolikelytocontinuetobeasmallheadwindonroomnightgrowthin2016withaninsignificantimpactonprofitability.

Fromanexpensestandpoint,includingOrbitzandHomeAway,whilewewillseeleverageandcostofrevenueandgeneralandadministrativeexpensesin2016,weexpecttechnologyandcontentexpensestogrowfasterthanrevenue,primarilydrivenbyintegrationeffortsandtheinorganicimpactsofourrecentacquisitions.Regardingtaxes,asyoumightimagine,there'slotsofmovingparts,especiallyrelatedtonewlyacquiredcompaniesandourinternationalversusdomesticmix.However,wecurrentlyexpecteffectivetaxratesinthemid-20%range.

Finally,somedirectionalcoloronourCapExtrends.In2015,wesawsignificantCapExgrowthwithabouthalfofthedollargrowthattributabletothepurchaseofourfutureheadquarters.Spendingforrealestateingeneralalsowaselevatedaswecontinuedtogrowourmarketmanagementteamaggressivelyandbuiltoutnewofficespacearoundtheworld.

Inaddition,weinvestedheavilyinserversandotherhardwareinanticipationoffutureorganicgrowthandupcomingintegrations.Toalesserextent,anincreaseincapitalizedsoftwaredevelopmentcostsalsocontributedtoyear-over-yearCapExgrowth.For2016,weexpectamuchmoremoderatepaceofCapExgrowth,mostofwhichwillbedrivenbytheinorganicimpactofrecentacquisitions.

Withthat,let'smovetoQ&A.

Operator,willyoupleaseremindparticipantshowtoqueueupforquestions?

QUESTIONS&ANSWERS

Operator :

(OperatorInstructions)

JustinPostwithMerrillLynch.

Just inPost (Analyst-BofAMerrillLynch):

MaybetwoquickonesforDaraandoneforMark.Housekeeping.First,Dara,canyoutalkaboutthemacroenvironment?ObviouslyalotoffearswithsomeoftherevPARdataoutthere.WhatyouareseeingmaybeUSandEurope?AndthentheS-4,alotofushavereadit.ReallyinterestingcommentaryontheHomeAwayacquisition.Inthereisa2018numberof$2.34billioninEBITDA.Canyoucommentonthatnumberatall.Howimportantthatis?Isthatsomethingatarget--orhowyouthinkaboutthatnumber?




Andthen,Mark,justtoconfirmyourguidance,isthenumberyouaresuggesting,35%to45%growth,isthatoffthe$1.165billionorthe$1.103billion(sic-seepage18ofpressrelease)inEBITDAthisyear?Thankyou.


Sure.Thanks,Justin.Asfarasthemacroenvironmentgoes,welistentothesamenewsthatyoudo,andcertainlythenewssuggeststhatthemacroenvironmentisprettyuncertainandthestockmarketnowisscary.

Thatsaid,whenwelookatthemacroenvironmentandhowitaffectsourbusiness,oneimportantfactorinourbusinessistheairbusiness,andairticketpricesaredownprettysignificantlyyearonyear.It'sobviouslysomeofthesavingsofoilpricesthatarebeingpassedonbytheairlinestoconsumers,andthat'sanunambiguouspositiveforus.Themore--thelowerairticketpricesgo,themoretheleisuretravelertendstoflyandthemoretheleisuretravelertendstofly--asyouknow,wehaveabitofwhatwethinkisthestrategicinvestment--strategicadvantageontheairside,andthemoreleisuretravelerswehaveflying,themoreopportunitywehavetosellhotelsandinsuranceandcarsandeverythingelsetothem.

Sotosomeextent,weaknessinoilontheairsideisaprettybigpositiveforus.

Onthehotelside,whilewehaveseenADRsweakenabitbetweenacallatthebeginningoftheyearinQ4,whenwelookatQ4trendsintoJanuary,wedon'tseeanythingofnoteonewayortheother.Therearesomespotissuesobviously.Parisisweak,whichisperfectlyexplainable.NewYorkADRscontinuetobedownyearonyear,althoughthey'veimprovedoverQ4,andthat'sEuropeantravelersreallytravelingintotheUSandtheeffectofforeignexchange.AndAsia,weseecertainmarketslikeHongKongandMacaudownasfarasADRsgo.Butagain,nosignificantshiftswhenwelookatQ4trendsintoJanuarythatareofnote.

Soit'ssomethingthatwewillwatch,andtotheextentthatweseeanything,wewillcertainlyshareitwithourinvestors.Butwearenotseenanymaterialmovementonewayortheotherrightnow.


Andthen,Justin,onyourquestionon2018consolidatedEBITDAthatwascontainedintheS-4,listen,atthetimeoftheacquisition,weputforwardsomeforecastsforwhatwebelievedwereapossibleoutcomeforconsolidatedExpedia,Inc.resultsoverthecourseofthenextthreeyears.Itdidnotaccountanyupsidesanysignificantinvestments.It'sapossibleoutcome,soIwouldn'tputalotofweightonthat.ThatwasthencombinedessentiallywiththeHomeAwayprojections.Andwedidnotatthattimecontributetothecombinationofthoseresults.

Solisten,Ithinkyoucouldlookatitasapossibleoutcome,butit'scertainlynotsomethingthatIwoulduseasguidance.AndIthink,asyouknow,wemakediscretedecisionsfrommonthtomonth,quartertoquarter,sothere'salotthatcanchangebetweennowand2018.Andwe'rejustreallyfocusedoncontinuingtohaveabusinesswherewecandeliverconsistentlystronggrowthratesoveralongperiodoftime.

Intermsoftheguidance,the35%to45%growthisoffofthe$1.165billion,whichistheExpedia,Inc.full-year2015numberexcludingeLong.

Just inPost (Analyst-BofAMerrillLynch):

Thankyou.




Operator :

MarkMahaneywithRBCCapitalMarkets.

MarkMahaney(Analyst-RBCCapitalMarkets):

TwoquestionsandonejusttofollowuponJustin'squestion.Soifyoudothat35%to45%,itkindofimpliesthatthecorebusinessisgoingtogrow--yourguidanceimpliessomethinglike9%to10%atthelow-endto19%atthehigh-end.Socallit10%to20%justaroundhere.Andthat'sobviouslyalittlebitmoreaggressivethanthekindofguidanceforthecorebusinessyougavegoinginto2015.Soitdoessoundlikeall-inbusinessconditionsaregettingstrongerforExpedia,butIjustwanttomakesureI'minterpretingthenumbersandstatingthatright.

Andthensecondly,intermsofthe--you'veguidedforrevenueperroomcontinuingtocomedownin2015.AndthequestionIwouldwanttoaskis,willitcomedownatthesamepaceoracceleratedpaceorlessofastrongpace?Inotherwords,whatwesawinthequarterwasthat11%year-over-yeardeclinewasalittlelessthanwehadseeninthelastcoupleofquarters.Arewestartingtoseeafadedowninthatpressureyouareseeingonrevenueperroomnight?Thankyou.


Mark,IwillletMarktakemostofthatquestion,butonethingIwillremindyouasfarasthecorebusinessisthatforeignexchangewasareally,reallysignificantheadwindforourcorebusinessthislastyear.AndwhiletheywillcontinuetobeaheadwindinQ1,Q2,itwilleaseupinthebackhalfoftheyear.Soallthingsbeingthesame,thatwillbeabenefitin2016versus2015.

IwillletMarkanswertheothers.


Yes,Iwouldjustsayjustagaintoclarifyontheguidance,Iwouldtakethatascoreimpliedguidanceofcloserto8%to13%.IwouldtakethehighontheOrbitzHomeAwayimpactandsubtractitfromthehighonthetotalandthelowfromthelowside.Iwouldn'ttakeourguidanceasbeingupto19%.

Andthen,listen,ourrevenueperroomnight,we'vebeensayingforawhilethatthegapbetweenrevenueperroomnight--youcouldthinkaboutthatas,callit,the300to800basispointrange.Anditmovesaround.Ithinkwhatyou'llseein2016isyouaregoingtocontinuetoseethatrangeofmovementtowardsthebackhalf.Ithinkthere'sapossibilityaswestarttocompoversomeofthemarginreductionswedidthisyearasthatstartstoease.AndthenIthinkyou'llstarttoseeIwouldexpectsomemoreeasinginthataswemovethrough2017.And,again,thisiswithregardstothegapbetweenrevenueperroomnightandADRs,ofcourse,becauseADRsareoneofthebiggestdriversofoverallrevenueperroomnightmovements.

MarkMahaney(Analyst-RBCCapitalMarkets):

Thanks,Mark.Thanks,Dara.

Operator :

NavedKhanwithCantorFitzgerald.

NavedKhan (Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):

Twoquestions.JustontheHomeAway--Iknowit'sstillearlydaysforthetransitionbuttothetransitiontoonlinebookings,butcanyoujusttalkaboutwhatkindofpenetrationrateyouthinkyoucanreasonably




gettobytheendofthisyearintermsofthecostindaysofbookingshappeningonlineversusthe(inaudible)developments.

AndthenIhadafollow-upontheguidance.SoIthink,Mark,youhadcalledoutthecontributionfromthetwoacquisitions,OrbitzandHomeAway,totheEBITDAnumber.ButIthinkpreviouslyyoutalkedaboutOrbitzseeingsynergiesofuptoorinaccessof[$75]million.Isthereanyupdatetothatnumber?


Sure.Whydon'tItakethelastquestionfirstandthenDaracanchimeinonHomeAway.

Sojust,again,onthe$275millionto$325millionofadjustedEBITDAcontributionforthetwoacquisitionscombined,firstofall,IwouldjustremindpeoplethatonastandalonebasiswehadsaidOrbitzwasontracktodoaround$135millionofadjustedEBITDAin2015.Ithinktheycameinalittlebitaheadofthat.ButIthinkthatasadecentbaseinHomeAway,alittlebitbetterthan$120millioninadjustedEBITDAfrom2015.Theywillbothhavepurchaseaccountingheadwindsonthemin2016,botharound$10millioneach,sothinkaboutthatasabouta$20millioncombined.Sotakethatasyourbase.

Andthenthewaythatwegettoobviouslythehighernumberissynergies.AndalotofthatisgoingtocomefromOrbitz,andit'sgoingtocomeinthebackhalfoftheyear.Infact,inthefirstpartoftheyear,we'regoingtobeinapositionnotunlikewherewewerewithWotifwherewewereessentiallycarryingalmostdoublecosts.We'vebuiltupteamstosupporttheintegrationoftheOrbitzbusinessesontotheBrandExpediaplatforms,forexample,atthesametimeasmaintainingtheOrbitzexistingplatforms.

Andthenit'sreallyoncewegettheplatformtransitionsdone,whichisreallyhappeninginthefirsthalfoftheyearforthebigconsumerbusinesses,that'swhenyoustarttoseesynergyrealizationcomein,andthat'sreallystartingagaininthebackhalfoftheyear.Andwe'rehopefulthatbytheendoftheyear,weshouldbeprettyclosetoarunratenumber,butwe'renotgoingtobeevenclosetothatinthemiddleoftheyearandwewillprobablybesubthat.Therewillbeadetrimentinthefirstpartoftheyear.


AndthenasfarasHomeAwaygoes,asoftheendoftheyear,wehadabout60%ofourtotallistingsonlinebookable.Wedon'tdisclosetheactualpercentageofbookingsthatrunthroughourlistings,andwe'regoingtobeworkingonincreasingthepercentageofonlinebookablelistingsin2016andgetitmuchcloserto100%,asmuchaswecan.Really,we'regoingtobepushingonlinebooking,offeringittoourpartners,andthat,alongwithabookwithconfidenceguaranteefortravelers,wethinkisgoingtobewinforourtravelers,andit'salsogoingtobeawinforoursupplierbaseaswell.

Andthat'sreallythefocusofthebusiness.Wewilltrytoobviouslydrivetheonlinebookingvolume.Butthatisreallymuchmoreofalong-termgoalforusasacompany,andIthink2016isgoingtobeaboutsettingthebase,makingsurethetechnologyinfrastructureisright,andmakingsurethatwe'retakinganyandallkinksoutoftheonlinebookingprocesstomakeitincrediblyeasyfortravelersandincrediblyeasyforsubscribersaswell.Wedon'thaveaspecifictargetforpercentageofbookingsgoingoverthetransom,sotospeak,for2016.

NavedKhan (Analyst-CantorFitzgerald):

Thankyou.

Operator :

TomWhitewithMacquarie.




T omWhite (Analyst-Macquarie):

Great.Thanksfortakingmyquestion.Justfirstonroomnightgrowth,youtalkedalittlebitaboutheadwindsfromthebooking.comInstantBookingimplementation.Couldyoumaybecommentonwhatsortofheadwindthatwasto(inaudible)thatgrowthinthequarter?

Andthenjustafollow-uponHomeAwayandmovingaheadwithinstitutingthisconsumerbookingfee,IguesswhenHomeAwayisindependent,wecanseehowthatextramarginwouldreallyhelpthem--fromthefeewouldreallyhelpthemintermsofcompetingandinvestingagainstAirbnb.Butnowthatit'spartofabiggerExpedia,howdoyouguyswaythebenefitofthatbookingfeeintermsofincreasedmonetizationversusthepossibilitythatitnegativelyimpactstheconsumerexperience?Thanks.


Thanks,Tom.SoI'llstartwiththeroomnightgrowthandthenturnovertoDaraandHomeAway.

Sotherewereafewheadwindsforusonroomnightgrowthinthequarter.Wehadabouta400basispointhardercomppartiallyonthebackoflappingoversomeprettystronggrowthinTravelocitywiththecommercialagreementimplementationandthenalsoWotifwhichwewerelappingoverinthequarter.Wealsohadabout300basispointsofroomnightgrowthimpactfromtheParisattacksweestimate,sobothofthosewereprettysignificantheadwindsforus.

IntermsoftheInstantBookimpact,Ithinkifyouthoughtaboutthatinthe100to200basispointrange,thatwouldbeagoodbarometer.

Andthenjustintermsofexpectationsfor2016,weareexpectingtoseesomedecelerationinroomnightgrowthaswemovethroughtheyear.Wearealsocompingoveracquisitionsandconsolidationsagainin2016.Travelocity,forexample,rampingupWotifonvariablemarketingchannels,theintegrationofBrandExpediaAsia.

SoIwouldjustkeepthoseinmind.AndthentotheextentthatTripAdvisorrulesoutInstantBookingmorebroadly,whichwecurrentlydoexpectthemtodoandwecontinuetonotparticipateinthat,thatcanbeanincrementalheadwindandthinkaboutthataslargerthanthe100to200basispoints.Itcouldbe200to300basispoints.Butagain,insignificantfromtheperspectiveofprofitability.


AndasfarasHomeAwayandthebookingfeegoes,listen,we'regoingtobewatchingitveryclosely.Weobviouslywanttheconsumerexperiencetobegreat,andweareobviouslygoingtobewatchingthepercentageofbookingsrunningoverthesystem.Wethinkwiththebookwithconfidenceguarantee,wearegoingtogiveourconsumers--ourtravelersalotofconfidenceasfarasbookingwithHomeAwayandmakingsurethattheygetwhattheyexpect,makingsurethatthey--iftheyhaveanyissuesregardingqualityortheirdeposits,etc.,theyaretakencareof.

Andthenwewillbelaunchingothermetricssuchasthetraffictothesite,theconversionratesofconsumerscominginwholookatlistings,therenewalrateofoursubscribers.

Sothereareahostofothermetricsthatwe'regoingtowatchandmeterinordertomeasurewhatisabalancedapproach,whichiswedothinkthatweareundermonetizingrelativetoourvolumeandmakingsurethataswemovetocallitmarketmonetizationrates,weareprovidingagreatexperiencefortravelerswhoarecomingandlookingforagreatplacetostayonHomeAway,andwearebringinggreatvaluetooursupplyaswell.

IwillalsoremindyouthatthebookingfeeissomethingthathasbeenwidelyacceptedasfarasAirbnb




andTripAdvisorgo.Airbnbhasalwayshadabookingfee.TripAdvisorintroducedbookingfeeslastyear.Thosetransitionshavegoneveryverysmoothly.Ourpricingisgoingtobequitecompetitive.Sothisissomethingthathasalreadybeenmarkettested,andwefeelprettygoodmovingintothismodelbasedonthecompetitionalreadybeingthere.

T omWhite (Analyst-Macquarie):

Great.Thankyou.

Operator :

BrianFitzgeraldwithJefferies.

BrianFitzgerald (Analyst-Jefferies):

Wantedtoaskalittlebitaboutthesecondderivativeeffectsyouhaveyoutalkedaboutonintegration.So,first,youconnecttheinfrastructureandtheplumbingandthenthemachines(inaudible)gleanedthatandlearnedandthenyouapplythoselearningsandoptimize.SpecificallywithmaybeOrbitzormaybeevenAwayifthatprocessisgoingonthere,too,istheprocesslengtheningatalljustonthesheerscaleorsizeofthoseintegrations,ormaybehowisthisprocessplayingoutcurrently?


Iwouldsay,Brian,ontheOrbitzsideactually,whilewehaven'tgonethroughthefullprocess,IwouldanticipatethatOrbitzwouldactuallybeabitquickerthanTravelocityandWotifbecausetheOrbitzteamthatwasalreadyinplace,theyhadanonlinemarketingteamthatwasverysophisticated,theyhaveananalyticsteamthatisjustexcellent.

SoanumberofthefolkshavebeentherewithOrbitz.Theyunderstandtheseoptimizations.Thisissomethingthatthey'vedonebefore.We'rejusthopingthataswemovethemovertooursupplybaseandaswemovethemovertoourtechstack,theyarejustgoingtohaveamachinethatismuchsmootherandbetterthanthemachinethattheyhadtoworkwithinthepast.

Sowedon'tanticipateanyhiccupsasitrelatestoOrbitz.Youneverknow.Andatleastthetrendsthatweareseeingearlyonareencouraging,andthingslooktobeontrack.

HomeAwayisaverydifferentanimal.HomeAwayisnotanintegration.Thatteamisgoingtobelargelyindependent,andtheactivitywithHomeAwayhasbeentomakesure,frankly,thatthatteamisnotdistractedasbeingpartof--partofbeingExpedia.Ithinkwe'refreeingupabunchoftheirtimetofocusfrom,callit,publiccompanyactivitytovalue-addedactivity.Buildingagreatconsumerexperience,buildingagreatsubscriberexperience.Andbecausewearevery,veryfamiliarwiththistransactionalmodel,ourproductandtechnologyteamsarealreadyworkingwiththemtomakesurethattheroadmapsarewhattheyshouldbe.

AndIthinkthesecondareawherewecanaddvalueismakingsurethatasthisvolumecomesonlineorastheselistingscomeonline,we'renotonlypushingHomeAwaytraffictothem,butalsoExpediaandHotels.comtraffictothem,whichIthinkisofsignificantvaluebothfortheHomeAwaysubscriberbasebutalsofortheExpediaandHotels.comconsumerbaseswell.


Brian,I'lljustaddonethingonOrbitzisthatwedohave,inadditiontotheOrbitzCheapTicketsbusiness,whichisthebigconsumerbusiness,wealsohaveanumberofotherbusinessesthataregoingtotakealittlebitlongertointegrateOrbitzpartnernetwork,forexample.We'resuperexcitedaboutthatbusiness,




andwearetakingthestepsnecessarytodothatright.Makingsureweworkwithpartnersandcometotherightoutcome,forexample.OrbitzforBusinessisanotherone.We'reprettyexcitedaboutthespeedatwhichwe'regoingtobeabletomovethat--thoseclientsovertotheEgenciaplatform.Butagain,itisgoingtotakealittlebitlonger,andbothofthesetransitionsarenewinthatwehaven'tdonealotofthesebeforeunlikethecoreconsumerbusiness.

Sointermsofsynergyrealization,Iwouldjustkeepinmindthatuntilthosebusinessesaremigratedoff,youdon'tgettoseethefullplatformofretirementbenefitsthatyouwouldifitwasonlyOrbitz,CheapTicketsandeBookersthatweweretransitioningover.

BrianFitzgerald (Analyst-Jefferies):

Great.Thanks,Dara.Thanks,Mark.

Operator :

MikeOlsenwithPiperJaffray.

MikeOlsen (Analyst-PiperJaffray):

Justtwoquestionshere.YoumentionedTripAdvisorInstantBookingimpactingroomnightsin2016totheextentthatyoudon'tparticipate.SocouldyoutalkabouthowyouarethinkingaboutthemodelorothersimilarmodelsandwhyExpediamayormaynotbeinterestedinparticipating?

Andthensecondly,doyouexpecttheimpactoftheParisattackswillcontinuebeyondaoneortwoquartertimeperiod,oristhatarelativelyshort-termissuethatyouwouldn'texpecttoimpactthebusinessbeyondQ1?


Hi,Mike.Iwillanswerthesecondonefirst,whichisyouneverknow.Historically,thesekindsofattackshaveresolvedfairlyquickly.IwouldsayParisingeneral,wesawimmediatelykindofaneffectonbroaderEuropeandestinations,andthataffectlookslikeit'sdisappeared.Buttherecertainlyis--continuestobeaneffectinParis.It'sgettingbetter.ButthetrendsinParisarecertainlypoorcomparedtothetrendsthatwehadseenbeforeQ4oflastyear.

SoIthinkParisisgoingtocontinuethroughtheyear.Itwasahorrificevent,andIthinkitwasthekindofeventthatstaysinpeople'smemories.SoIthinkthattherewillbesomeeffectgoingintothebalanceoftheyear,andwe'regoingtodoourbesttomakeupforthat.We'regoingtodoourbesttoworkwithourpartnersoverthereandreallycontinuetopromoteParisasthewonderfuldestinationthatitis.Sohopefullyitwon'tlastlong.Butmypersonalfeelingisthattherewillbesomeeffectgoingintothebalanceoftheyear.

AsfarasthetripandInstantBookandhowweviewthatchannel,we'vebeenveryconsistentabouthowweviewanyvariablechannel,includingInstantBook,inthatwelookattheeconomicsofachannelbasedon,callit,animmediatetransaction.Andthenwelookattheeconomicsofthetransactionbasedonthelifetimevalueofthecustomer,bothintermsofthecustomerrepeatrateandthepercentageofthetimeinwhichthosecustomersrepeatdirectlywithusasecondandthirdtimearound.Obviouslythelatterismuch,muchmorevaluable.

TheinitialversionofInstantBookwasIthinkquiteunsatisfactoryasfarasthebranding,etc.,andrepresentationofwherethecustomerwasreallytransactingwith.Andthelatestiterationsthatwe'veseenwithbooking.comandwithsomeofthesupplierdirectpartners,forexampleMarriott,lookalotbetter.Theylookmuchmoreclear.




SoIwouldsayatthispoint,InstantBooklooksbettertousthanitdidwhenInstantBookwasinitiallylaunched,butwedon'thaveanycommentsastowhattheultimatedecisionisgoingtobedowntheroad.

MikeOlsen (Analyst-PiperJaffray):

Thankyou.

Operator :

DouglasAnmuthwithJPMorgan.

Unidentif iedPart icipant :

Thisis[Daly]inforDoug.Thankyoufortakingourquestion.Ihavejustafollow-upontheHomeAway.SoonHomeAway,youguysmentionedthattravelerfeewillrolloutinthenextcomingmonths,butcouldyouclarifyalittlebitmoreonthetimingoftherolloutplansalittlemore?AndthencouldyoucommentonyourmarketingapproachforHomeAwayin2016andwhatdrivestheconfidenceonyour$350millionEBITDAnumberin2018?Thankyou.


Yes,IthinkasfarasHomeAwaygoes,wearerollingoutnowintheUS,andthespeedoftherolloutisgoingtodependonthereactionofcustomers,conversionrate,howit'sworkingoutwithsubscribers,etc.

Sotherolloutwillmovequicklytotheextentthatweseethingsworkingout,andwewillbedebuggingactively.Wewillthen--oncewearedonewiththeUSoroncewearewellunderwaywiththeUS,wewilllookattherestoftheworld.

But,listen,theserolloutsareliverollouts,andwedon'twanttohardcodeaspecificrolloutcadence.Obviouslywewanttorollitoutasquicklyaspossible,makingsurethatourcustomerexperienceandoursubscriberexperienceisterrific.

AsfarasamarketingapproachforHomeAway,wedoplanasignificantyear-on-yearincreaseinbrandmarketinginHomeAwayfor2016.That'sincludedinthenumbersthatMarkrelatedtoyou.It's--themarketingcampaignisalreadystarted.Andtheearlysigns--andweareaboutfivemarketsontheearlysignsasfarasvisitstotheHomeAwaysiteslookreallygood,andweareencouragedbythetrendsthatwesee.

Onceonlinebookingreallystartstoexpand,wewillbeabletothrottleupvariablemarketingchannelsaswegetvariableeconomicsontherevenueside.Oneoftheissueswiththesubscriptionlistingproductisthatyoudon'tearnmoneyoneverysingletransaction.Youareearningmoneyonanannualsubscription,soyoucan'tnecessarilybidforthecriminaltransaction.

Oncewehaveonlinebookingexpanded,alongwiththetravelerfee,andvolumesrolloutthere,wedothinkthatwewillbeabletoincreasevariablemarketingchannels,butwethinkthat'ssomethingthat'sgoingtohappeninthebackhalfoftheyearasopposedtothefronthalfoftheyear.

Andthenlisten,onthequestionoftheconfidenceinthe$350millionEBITDAin2018,wemadethoseestimatesbasedonasetofassumptions--earlysetofassumptions.Andsofar,inthecoupleofweeksthatHomeAwayhasbeenapartofthefamily,wearemoreimpressedthanwewerewhenwemadethoseassumptions.It's2018.That'salongtimefromnow,butIthinkwhatwewantedtocommunicateisthatyoukindofgointoacompany,youmeetthepeople,youtakealookatthetechnologystackandtheproductroadmaps,andeitherit'sgoodnewsorbadnews.AndatthispointwithHomeAway,it'sgood




newsforus.


Thankyou.

Operator :

LloydWalmsleywithDeutscheBank.

LloydWalmsley(Analyst-DeutscheBank):

AcoupleifIcan.FirstforgivemeifImissedthis,butwhenyoutalkaboutthe2016contributionfromOrbitzinawayof$275millionto$325million,whatisembeddedinthatintermsofthedeferredrevenuethatyouwon'trecognize?IknowintheS-4,yousaidHomeAwayalonecouldbeashighas[107],butisthereanassumptionthatyoucansharewithusaroundhowmuchisexcludedfromthat?

AndthensecondifIcan,justcuriousifyoucangiveusasenseforwhatyou'reseeingfromearlybetahotelsontheaccelerator[bid]takerateproductandwhendoyouthinkthatmightrolloutmorebroadlyandwhatkindofimpactitmighthaveonrevenueperroomnightheadwindsyou'vebeenseeing?Thanks.


Sure,Lloyd.SoI'lltakethefirstoneandthenturnitovertoDara.Onthe$275millionto$325million,thereisabout$20millionofpurchaseaccountingimpactembeddedinthat.AbouthalfofitisOrbitz,halfofitisHomeAway.ThebulkofitwillunfoldinthefirstquarterwithsomeoftheHomeAwaystufftakingalittlebitlongertobleedoff.Itis--theHomeAwayimpactisafairbitlowerthanwehadanticipated/fearedatthetimeofacquisition.Weduginverydeepwithourauditorsandadvisersandcametotheconclusionthattherewasasignificantlylargerportionofitthatwecouldrecognizethanwehadanticipated.Sogoodnewsonthatfront.


Andasfarasacceleratorgoes,listen,it'svery,veryearly.Wearetrainingourmarketmanagerswhoarenowgoingoutthereandexplainingacceleratorinmarket.Weare--andweareseeingincertainmarkets--weareseeingengagementswithourhotelpartners.Thepartnerswhohaveengagedwithacceleratorproductareprettydarnhappy,whichisgreat.Youwantclientswholiketheproduct,andsoweseeacceleratorstartingtocontributetoouroverallnumbers.

Ingeneral,acceleratorisamoveinthedirectionofhavingmuchmoreofmarketplacemodelforourmarginssothathotelierscanbidupwhentheyneedvolume,theycangotobasebidwhentheydon'tneedvolume,andalsoalongwithbidding,yougetthequalityofcontenttothehotel,howthesehotelstreatourcustomers,qualityofservice,etc.,anduserreviewsallmixingintoacombinationofthebesthotelforthebestcustomerandalsoeconomicsthathotelierswanttobidatandobviouslyhopefullyeconomicsthatworkoutforus.

Soweareveryearlyonthisjourney.Thesignsthatweareseeingwithacceleratorsofarareencouraging.We'renotmakingaggressiveassumptionsinour2016plansforaccelerator,butifanyofourmarketmanagerteamsarelistening,weexpectyoutodobetterthantheconservativeplansthatwehave.

Sowe'rehopingforthebest.We'renotcountingthebest.

LloydWalmsley(Analyst-DeutscheBank):




Thanks,guys.

Operator :

EricSheridanwithUBS.

EricSheridan (Analyst-UBS):

InoticedBarryDillerrecentlygaveaninterviewsayingthatExpediawasfarfromdoneonM&A.So,Dara,oneforyouwouldbecapitalallocation,howyouthinkaboutthemixofassetsyouhavenow,geographic,aswellascapabilitiesunderthebroaderExpedia,Inc.umbrella,andsohowyouthinkaboutallocatingcapitalgoingforwardtowardsM&Aandcontinuingthestrategicvision.

Andthennumbertwowouldbe,there'sbeenalotofcommentsoflatefromsomeoftheinventorysidelikeHiltonandMarriottwithrespecttolowercommissionratesandlastroomavailability.Wantedtogetyourtakeonhowtheindustrydynamicisplayingoutaroundlowercommissionrates,morestablecommissionratesversuslastroomavailabilitiesattheme.Thanks.


Sure.AsfarastheM&Afront,listen,wewillbeopportunisticasfarasourcapitalallocationgoes.Ithinkthattheteamismoreinworthyfocusedrightnowthenlookingtogooutandaggressivelyacquire.Althoughwehaveaterrificcorporatedevelopmentandstrategyteamwhoareconstantlytalkingtoanyoneandeveryone.

Whenwelookattheportfolioofassetsthatwehave,especiallywithHomeAwayaspartofourfamily,wefeellikewehaveafullportfolio.Wefeellikewedon'thaveanycompetitiveholes,andifwedon'tengageinanyM&Aforthenexttwo,threeyears,wewouldbeperfectlyhappy.

Thatsaid,wedowanttoextendourinternationalcoverage.IthinkweareingeneraltooUSdependent.Atthispointit'sareallygoodthingbecausetheUSeconomyisthestrongesteconomyintheworld.Soit'spositivenow,butfive,10yearsfromnow,it'sshameonusifwehaven'tgrownsignificantlymoreoutsideoftheUSinallthemarkets,Asia-Pacific,LatinAmerica,Europe,etc.

Thesecondareawhereweabsolutelywanttogrowandscaleisinthecorporatetravelmarket.Obviouslywe'reverystrongonleisuretravel.Corporatetravelwethinkisanenormousopportunity.It'sahigheryieldofcustomersetsthatoursuppliersfavor.Thedemandpatternsarequitecomplementaryofleisuredemandpatterns,andwewanttogetbigger,wewanttoscale,andweseegrowthaheadforEgenciathatisacombinationoforganicaswellasinorganicgrowth,andwethinkthat'sgoingtocontinueforsometimegoingforward.

Andthenwewillalsolookforinnovativenewcompaniesoutthere.Trivagoobviouslywasaterrificone,andit'savery,veryvaluablepartofthefamily.WemadesomeinvestmentsinAlice,forexample,onthesupplytechnologyproduct.Sowewillbeopportunisticwingsasfarastransportgoes.Wewillcontinuetobeopportunistic.Wewillcontinuetoshootbullets,sotospeak,andseewhatopportunityisoutthereintheworld.

Thatsaid,thebusinessthrowsoffalotofcashflow,andhistoricallyIwouldsaybeforethisyear,therewasafairamountofcapitalallocationgoingtobuybacks.Andtotheextentthatwedon'tseeanythingexternalandtotheextentthatwelikeourownstockandtypicallywehavelikedourownstock,wewilllooktoallocatesomecapitalinternallyaswell.Soit'skindof--theworldisouroyster,andwe'rethrowingoffalotofcash.Andwewilltryourbestnottowasteit.

Asfarasthenoiseandthechatterwiththechains,etc.,listen,wecontinuetobestrongpartnerswiththe




hotelsingeneral.Ourvolumeswithindependentsandchainshavegrownsignificantly,andourstrategywithourchainpartnersisnodifferentthanouroverallstrategy,whichistolowerourbasecommissionssothatthereisverylittlefrictioninworkingwithus.Andthenreally,anyhotel,whethertheyareachainoranindependentcancompeteinourmarketplaceforshare.Andthisisa--it'sabigmarketplace.Themarketplaceisonlygrowing,andifyou'vegotcompetitivepricingandyou'vegotgreatcontentandyoutreatourcustomersreallywellandyouprovideexcellentavailabilityalongwithmargins,you'lldowellinthemarketplace.

SoIthinkthattheultimate,callit,performanceofthechainsandtherelationshipwiththechainsandthevolumethatwedowithchainsisreallygoingtobebasedonchainbiddinginourmarketplaceagainstindependents,andingeneral,weseeourchainvolumes.Theyhavebeenhealthyforanumberofyears,andweexpecttoseethemhealthyonagoforwardbasis.

EricSheridan (Analyst-UBS):

Great.Thankyou,Dara.

Operator :

JedKellywithOppenheimer.

JedKelly(Analyst-Oppenheimer):

CanyoutouchonwhatHomeAwaysubscriberchurnhasbeensincetheacquisition,andwhatisyourcurrentplanaroundsubscriptionpricing?

Andthenafollow-up.HaveyouseenanincreasewithvacationrentalCPCs,particularlyinregardstohome--toAirbnbclosingitsrecentfundingroute?


Asfaras--theonethatIcanmakeacommentonisthatrenewalratesinQ4actuallyimprovedandwerethehighestrenewalratesfortheyear.Soweareveryhappyaboutthat.

AsfarasanincreaseinvacationrentalCPCs,wehaven'tseenanyonemoretheother,soIcan'treallycommentonthat.

JedKelly(Analyst-Oppenheimer):

Thankyou.

Operator :

StephenJuwithCreditSuisse.

StephenJu (Analyst-CreditSuisse):

Dara,youcontinuetoveryquicklyaddsupplytoyourpropertyportfolioasyouadjustyourfeestructures.Sosettingasidetheremovalofabout20,000indirectrelationshipsforthefourthquarter,Ithinkyouaddedabout73,000in2015.Sojustwonderingifthere'sawayforyoutoacceleratethepacethere.

Additionally,Iwaswonderingifyoucouldgiveussomecoloronthetypeofincrementalpropertiesyouareadding.Aretheselargerproperties,smallerproperties,andistheroomcountperpropertysimilartowhat'salreadyontheplatform?

Andsecondarily,Ialmosthateaskingthisquestion,butdirectionally,areyouseeinganyimpactfrom




stepsoncountriesmaybetakingEuropetotightentheirbordersduetotherefugeecrisis?Thanks.


Asfarasthesupplyquestionandthepacingofoursupplyadds,weareprettyhappywiththepacing.Sowetendtoacceleratethepacingofadstotheextentthatweseehigherpenetrationincertainmarkets.Higherpenetrationmeansthatwearesendingplentyofdemandintoaspecificmarket,whichmeansthatwecanacquiremorehotels.Andatthispoint,weareseeingthegrowthofdemandintothemarketplaceandthegrowthofsupplybeaboutright.SoIwouldexpectthesamein2016,andasweareaddingmoresupplyandasthenewinventorycontributesrevenueintoourmarketplace,wethengoontohiremoremarketmanagers.

It'saformulathatwe'vehadinplaceforabout18months,andIseenoreasontochangeit.Itcertainlylookslikeit'sworking.

Asfarasthekindofsupplythatweareadding,asweareaddingmoresupply,we'retendingtoaddsupplyinsecondaryandtertiarymarkets.Andtheaveragenumberofroomsperhotelisgoingdown.

Sowhenwelookatcontributionfromnewhoteladds,it'snotsomethingwedisclosed,butit'ssomethingthatwecertainlylookatinternally.Thecontributionperhoteladdisgoingdown,andit'sgoingdownbecauseofthekindofsupplythatweareadding,andit'sworkingexactlytoformula.Soit'sexactlywhatwewouldexpecttosee.

Asfarasimpactsfromcountriesattherefugeecrisis,etc.,wehaven'tseensignificantimpactotherthantraveltoIwouldsaybroadareasthatareaffectedbytherefugeecrisisordirectlyaffected.Itisobviouslydown.Butwehaven'tseenkindofsecond-orderstuff.SotravelintoEuropeingeneralwas--continuestobeprettyhealthy,andwe'renotseeinganysignificantstepchangesindemandpatternsthere.

StephenJu (Analyst-CreditSuisse):

Thankyou.

Operator :

RonJoseywithJMPSecurities.

RonJosey(Analyst-JMPSecurities):

Justwantedtofollowupontwo,please.Dara,youmayhavementionedIthinkonEric'squestionaroundhotelcommissionsandreallythereadinessofthemarketplace.Iwantedtounderstandalittlebitmoreascommissionscomedown,asthemarketplacetakesintoaccounthowthatrelatesrelativetoyourcommentontheacceleratedprogrambeingvery,veryearly.

Andalso,justanotherfollow-uponOrbitzandthecontributiontoEBITDA,couldyouquantifymaybe,Mark,orhelpusunderstandthecostsavingsrelatedtothechargesyoutookaround$130million,$150millionrelatedtoemployeeseveranceandcompbenefitsthatwereannouncedinNovemberonOrbitz?Thankyou.


Asfarasthecommentsontheacceleratorprogrambeingearly,it'sliterallybecausewejustlaunchedtheprogram.Sothisisaproductthatweareco-completeoninQ4,andwe'vebeenworkingwithourmarketmanagersandhotelpartnersonlaunchingitofficially.Andthat'ssomethingthatwillcontinueaswemovethroughtheyear.




Itisabiddingtypeofproduct.Soasyoucanimagine,thesemarketplacetypeproductstendtogrowoveraperiodoftimeasyougetmoreplayersengaginginthem.

Soit'searly.Welikewhatwesee,butagain,we'renotmakinganyheroicassumptionsfinanciallyasitrelatestoouracceleratorprogram.Butitiscertainlyagoodstart,andwethinkit'saterrificproductthatisgoingtobearealwinforourhotelpartners.


Andthen,Ron,justontherestructuringchargesandhowthatflowsthroughtoEBITDAcontribution,Iwouldjustyousaythatinthe$75millionrunratesynergyestimatethatweinitiallyputout,abigchunkofthatwasheadcount-relatedcostreductionsessentially.There'sabitofrevenueinthereaswell,butpredominantlyheadcountrelated.SoIwouldlookattheseverancechargesasbeingrelatedverycloselytothatnumber.

Iwouldalsosaythatintheoverallbignumberisafairbitofequity-relatedcompensationwhichdoesnotshowupinadjustedEBITDAobviously.Soit'shardertotranslatethatintoanadjustedEBITDAimpact,andalotofthatrelatedtoseniorteamthat'snotthere.Sohopefullytheygivesyoualittlebitmorecolor.

RonJosey(Analyst-JMPSecurities):

Itdoes.Thankyou.

Operator :

KenSenawithEvercoreISI.


Hi.Thankyou.Thisis[Connor]onforKen.Justtoclarify,wasthereanFXimpactdisclosedfortheadjustedEBITDAguidance?Thankyou.


Yes,Connor,therewasn't.ButdirectionallyIcouldsaythatitisabitmorethantheimpacttorevenue.SoIwouldthinkaboutitinthe600to700basispointrange,maybealittlebithigher.


Thanks.

Operator :

MichaelMillmanwithMillmanResearchAssociates.

MichaelMillman (Analyst-MillmanResearchAssociates):

Followingup,Iguess,onanearlierquestionyoudiscussedtheoutlookfortravelandforleisuretravel,what'stheoutlookforbusinesstravelintheUS,particularlythinkingintheoilcountryoughtandoutsidetheUS.

Also,onethingthathasn'tbeendiscussediscarrental.WhatdoyouseeistheimpactofUberonthecarrentalbusinessintheUSandEurope?

Andfinally,justIkindofmissedamidstthe35%,45%EBITDAguidanceiscomparedwithwhatparticularnumberfor2015?Thankyou.





Sure.Asfarasthecorporatetravelandthetrendsthatweareseeing,listen,wehavegotsomecaution.Iwouldsaytheteamsarecautiousaboutclientsalesingeneralbecauseofthemacroeconomicenvironment.ThemostcleartrendthatwecanpointtorelatingtooilpricesisintermsofourbusinessintheNordics.Asyouknow,weacquiredViaandintegratedintoEgencia,andwedoseevolumesintheNordicregionsingeneralweak,andthatisverymuchrelatedtooilpricesbeingdownsignificantlyonayear-over-yearbasis.

Ingeneral,transactions--corporatetransactionslookgood.We'renotseeing,callit,verysignificantspendcutsonewayortheotherlikewesawacoupleyearsback.Weareseeingsometradingdown.Sotherevenuepertransactionsorgrossbookingpercorporatetransactionisdownabit,andwethinkthat'sjustcautiouspracticefromsomecorporationsouttheretradingdown,callit,frompremiumclasstoeconomyclassortakingatraininsteadoftakingaplane.Butthoseare,Iwouldsay,ontheedges.We'renotseeingsomebigthemeonewayortheotherasfarascorporatetravelchangingsignificantlyonewayortheother.

AsfarasthecarrentalandtheimpactofUber,ourcarrentalbusinessiswethinkveryearlyinitsdevelopment.Thevolumeincardaysisupverysignificantlyonayearoveryearbasis,over30%onayear-over-yearbasis,andmostofthatbusinessisintheUS.AndwethinkwehaveatonofpotentialasfarasourcarrentalbusinessinEuropegoes.

SoIjustthinkthatweareonagrowthpathatthispointthatisnotgoingtobeaffectedbyUber.We'renotgoingtofieldmarketnumbersonewayortheotherjustbecausethegrowthratesthatwehavearesohigh.

IfIweretogeneralizeitinQ4,othertrendsthatwesawinthecarbusiness,onHotwireside,wesawahigherconcentrationof,callit,agencybookingsversusopaquebookings.Wetendtomakemoremoneyonopaquebookings.Sothatwasonetrendthatwesaw,butotherwisenothingtosay,hey,thisisUberwhoishavingamaterialeffectonthebusinesstospeakof.

Mark,doyouwanttotalktotheotherquestion?


Yes,Michael,ontheguidance,the35%to45%fullyearyear-on-yeargrowth,includingHomeAwayandOrbitz,isinrelationtothe$1.165billioninadjustedEBITDAfor2015,whichisExpedia,Inc.excludingeLong.

MichaelMillman (Analyst-MillmanResearchAssociates):

Right.Thankyou.

Operator :

(OperatorInstructions)

PeterStablerwithWellsFargoSecurities.

PeterStabler (Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):

Dara,ahigh-levelone.Onloyaltyprograms,obviouslyHotels.comandOrbitzhaveprettyhighprofileofferings.Whatkindofappetitedoyouhaveforfurtherinvestmentbehindthoseprograms,andshouldtheseprogramsbeexpanded,orarethereotherplatformsintheExpediafamilywhereyoushouldrollfurtheronesout?





Absolutely.IwouldalsoaddthatExpediahasaprettysignificantloyaltyprogram,andIthinkbetweenHotels.com,ExpediaandOrbitz,wearerunningprettycloseto40millionloyaltymembersonaglobalbasis.AndIwouldsayourappetitehereisunlimited,andthewaytoexplainthatisthatthevariableeconomicsbehindtheseloyaltyprogramsareallworking.

Inotherwords,welookatthepointscosts,welookattheultimateredemptionvalueofthosepoints,thepercentageofpeoplewhoareusingpoints--customerswhoareusingthepoints,andwhentheyusethem,andthenwelookatthebehavioroftheconsumersandlike-for-likeconsumerswhoareintheprogramversusthebehaviorofconsumerswhoarenotintheprogramandhowthatbehaviorchangesintermsofrepeatcharacteristicsandintermsofchannelmix.

Whenwelookatthosefactorsandcompareittothepointcosts,theseloyaltyprogramswork.

Soaslongasthefactorsarenotunchanging,aslongastheserepeatcharacteristicsaren'tchanging,aslongasthechannelmixisn'tchanging,andaslongastheultimateredemptionvalueisn'tchanging,thenwewilllooktoexpandtheseloyaltyprogramsasaggressivelyaswecanonaglobalbasis.

Therearesomecountrieswheretheprogramsworkreally,reallywell.Forexample,we'vebeenpresentlysurprisedintheAsia-Pacificregionswhereloyaltyhasreallytakenoffand--forexample,onawelcomerewardsbasis,it'sgotthehighestpenetrationof,callit,welcomerewardsorhotelrewards--excuseme.It'sgotthehighestpenetrationofhotelrewards,bookingsasapercentageoftheoverallcustomerbase.SoweseesomecustomerbaseswholovetheseprogramsinAsia-Pacificregions,butingeneral,thevariableeconomicslookgood,andwewillcontinuetoinvestaggressivelyintheseloyaltyprogramsonagoforwardbasis.

TheotherreminderthatIwouldputforthisthatthepointscoststhatwetakeareupfront.Thebenefitsfromtheseloyaltyprogramsaretrailingbenefits,sotospeak.Becauseyougetthelower--therepeatbenefits,yougetthechannelbenefitsdowntheline.So,aswearegrowingtheseonamemberbasis,typicallywearepayinganupfrontcost,andwearebuildingupaprettysubstantialasset.Wethinkthisisagreatcompetitivemoatthatwearebuildingaroundourbrands,andweintendtokeepinvestingbehindthatmoat.

PeterStabler (Analyst-WellsFargoSecurities):

Thankyou.

Operator :

KevinKopelmanwithCowenandCompany.

KevinKopelman (Analyst-CowenandCompany):

IwantedtoaskaboutAirbnb.There'sbeenalotofdiscussionabouthowAirbnbisimpactingthehotelindustry.CanyougiveussomecoloronwhatyouareseeinginyourhotelbusinessfromAirbnbandhowyouarethinkingaboutthatastheyeargoeson?Thanks.


Weweredebating,Kevin,whenwewouldgettheAirbnbquestion,sothankyouverymuchforthat.

Listen,we'renotseeing--wedon'tseesignificanteffectofAirbnbonourbusiness.IwouldrelateittotheanswerIgavewithcar.Ourgrowthratesaresubstantiallydifferentfromindustrygrowthrates.Sojustbecausewedon'tseeit,itdoesn'tmeanthatthatisnothappening.




WehavesaidthatAirbnbingeneralandHomeAwayareaddinginventoryinthemarketplace,lodginginventoryinthemarketplace,andit'sbecomingmoreandmoreclearthatthereisacertainsetofcustomerswhosometimeswillstayatahotel,sometimeswillstayinaAirbnboraHomeAwayhome.Soanytimeyouincreasesupply,youwillputpressureonpricing.Sowewill--weanticipatepressureonpricing.WedoseeitsometimesduringperiodsinwhichthereisSuperBowl,let'ssay,oreventshappeningincitiesthatusedtosellout.

Wehaveobservedthatitsometimesgetsharderforhotelstoyieldupduringthoseevents.Andsometimes,whereasinthepastwewouldnothaveinventoryforthoseevents,wetendtohaveinventoryforthoseevents.Soinsomeway,youcouldconsiderapositiveasitrelatestoourmarketplace.

Andthenfinally,anytimeyouhavemoresupply,youputpressureonpricing,youasanintermediary--meaningus--wanttohaveaccesstothatsupply.AndwhereasbeforeHomeAwaywaspartofthefamily,wedidn'thavesignificantaccesstothatsupply,andourgoalwastobuildoutthataccesstosupplyonanorganicbasis.NowthatHomeAwayispartofthefamily,wehaveaccesstothatsupply,andwewillcontinuetobuildaccesstothatsupplyonanorganicbasis.

SowethinknowthatHomeAwayispartofthefamily,theAirbnbeffectisgoingtobeapositivefactorforus.Butit'sveryearlyinthisevolution,andatthispoint,otherthanthosespotcircumstanceswhenmarketsarekindofsoldoutbecauseofbigevents,we'renotseeingitaffectourspecifictrends.

KevinKopelman (Analyst-CowenandCompany):

Thanks,Dara.

Operator :

JustinPattersonwithRaymondJames.

Just inPatterson (Analyst-RaymondJames):

JustwantedtotouchonTrivago.Appreciatethedisclosuresyougaveearlieronthecallonthematuremarketsversustherestoftheworld.Couldyoutalkabouthowyouarethinkingofreinvestingintherestoftheworldandwhenweshouldseethatgrowthratestartcreepinguptothecontributionmarginofthematuremarkets?Thanks.


Sure,Justin.Listen,it'shardtogiveyouprecisenumbersaroundtimingofwhenwemightexpecttoseebettercontributionintherestoftheworld.Thisisabusinessthatoperatesonaveryquickcycletime.Weinvest,weseereturns.Whenweseereturnswelike,wecontinuetoinvest.

IthinkthebigchangethatwillultimatelydrivebetterrestofworldcontributionistheultimatepenetrationormaturityoftheUSbusiness.That'sanabsolutelyhugebusinessnowforTrivagothatisstillgrowingverystrongly,andtheycontinuetoseepocketsofavailabilitytoinvestintotheUS.

Atsomepoint,overthecourseofthenextthreeyears--maybeit'sthisyear,maybeit'stwoyearsfromnow,maybeit'sthreeyearsfromnow,thatmarketwillgetsobigthattheyarefullypenetratedanditdoesstarttolook,fromaprofitabilityperspectiveanyways,liketheirmorematuremarkets.Butatthispoint,it'sreallytoodifficultforustogivethecoloronwhenthatisgoingtohappen.


AndIjustwanttounderlinewhatMarkwassayingasfarasthedecision-makingfortheCompany.Ifyoulookatourtechnologyinfrastructureandourupgradertechinfrastructure,fromadesignelement,we




weregoingfrommuchmoreofa,callit,batchdatadesigntoreal-timedesign.Batchdatacomesin,goesintosomedatawarehouse,analystscomeinandanalyzeit,adecisionismade,andbasedonthedecision,youtakeactions.Real-timeisthereisatotalflowofdatacomingin.Youareanalyzingthedataonareal-timebasis,andyoumakedecisionsreal-time.

Andthatsameidea--thattechdesignideaissomethingthatwearetakingtoourbusiness.Andwearemaking--wedon'twanttobemakingadecisiononTrivagomarketinginvestmentbasedonsomethingthatsomeoneputonapieceofpaperaspartofanannualplan.Becausethenthepaperiskindofrunningyourbusiness.Weareinstrumentingourbusinessessothatwearemakingtherightdecisiontomorrowandthedayafterandthedayafterandthedayafter.Andwhatevertheresultisthen,that'sanoptimizedresultforrealbusinesspurposesandforthepurposesofourinvestorsthananoptimizedresulttohitanumberonapieceofpaper.

Wetakeourguidance--annualguidancewithyouseriously,buttherearealotofdifferentadjustmentsthatwearemakingwithourbusinesses,andwemakethoseadjustmentsreal-time.Wedon'tmakeitbecausesomeoneputatargetonapieceofpaper.

Just inPatterson (Analyst-RaymondJames):

Gotit.Thankyou,Mark.Thankyou,Dara.

Operator :

DanWasiolekwithMorningstar.

DanWasiolek(Analyst-Morningstar):

Justwonderingwhatpercentofyourtotalbookingsarecomingviadirectandmaybehowthat'strendedoverthelastyearandanycommentaryonhowyoumightviewthattrendingoverthenextfewyears?Thankyou.


Yes,thanksforthequestion,Dan.Carefullyguardedinformation,butI'llgiveyousomedirectionalcoloronit.Oneisthat--obviouslyaswehavebuiltthesebigloyaltyprograms,bothatHotels.comandatBrandExpediaandcertainlyOrbitzhashadthisbenefitaswellwiththeirOrbucksprogram,youdobuildonyourdirectbusiness.That'soneofthecorestrategiesofhavingthoseloyaltyprograms.

Soasthoseprogramsmatureandtheyaregettingbig,wedoseeanincreasingamountofourbookingscomingdirect.Sothat'sthefirstoneI'dmake.

Secondly,isinourmaturemarketsliketheUS,wedoseeasignificantamountofourbusinesscomingtous--directdirecttypeinrespondingtoemailusingtheappforexample.Andinlessmaturemarketswherewedon'thaveestablishment,thevastmajorityoftrafficactuallycomestousfromvariablechannels,andthegoalisovertime--andwedothisasweenternewmarketsandastheymatureovertime--istoacquirethesenewcustomersandhavethemturnintorepeatcustomersandbuildthebusinessinplaceslikeVietnamandKorea,forexample,tolookalotliketheUS.

IthinkDarahadmadesomecommentsoverthecourseofthelastcoupleofquartercallsthatoneofthetrendsthatwehadseenisthatthegrowthratesofourdirectchannelsandthegrowthratesofbookingsfromourindirectorvariablemarketingchannelswerestartingtogetclosertogether,andIthinkthat'satrendthatwehadcontinuedtosee,andwearehopefulthatissomethingtocontinueoveralongperiodoftimeaswebuildtheseloyaltyprogramsandasourinternationalmarketsmature.




DanWasiolek(Analyst-Morningstar):

Okay.Thanksforthecolor.

Operator :

Atthistime,Iturnthecallbackovertoourspeakersforanyadditionalorclosingremarks.


Thanks,everybody,forjoiningustoday.Dara,doyouhaveanyclosingcomments?


Yes,justagreatjobtotheExpediateamonaworldwidebasisand,inparticular,theteamsthatareworkingontheOrbitzmigration.It'salotofwork,weappreciateit,andabigwelcometotheHomeAwayteam.

Sothankyouverymuch.Lookforwardtoanexciting2016.Thankyou.

Operator :

Thatdoesconcludetoday'sconference.Wethankyouforyourparticipation.

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