export, import and wholesale price of rice in...
TRANSCRIPT
139
CHPATER-5
EXPORT, IMPORT AND WHOLESALE PRICE OF RICE IN INDIA
5.1. FACTUAL DETAILS:
The policy related to exports and imports of rice and wheat operates within
the framework of food security and food management policy. From a situation of
heavy dependence on imports of basic staple food in the middle of 1960s, India
steered itself to a comfortable situation during the 1990s. The supply-demand
balance became visible since the first half of 1980s, when the net imports came
down to less than one (0.88) million tonnes. The annual average of net imports of
cereals decreased to 0.2 million tonnes in the second half of 1980s. Considering
the average for a five year period, India emerged as net exporter of cereals in the
early 1990s. Between 1990-91 and 1994-95, India exported an average of 0.5
million tonnes of cereals (mainly rice and wheat). Net exports went up to 2.6
million tonnes per year during 1995-2000, and further to 6.4 million tonnes during
2000-2005. As already mentioned, the duty on imports of rice and wheat was
reduced to zero during the crisis period, and even beyond, when India was reeling
under high food inflation. This was in a situation of bound rates of 100 per cent on
wheat and 70 per cent on semi-milled or wholly milled rice (polished or
unpolished).
After implementation of WTO agreement in 1993, agricultural exports
have undergone significant changes in its content and composition. The
availability of cheap labour and land establish the cases of export initiatives and
diverse agro-climatic conditions give excellent base for the agricultural
production (Brahm and Sharma, 1996). The exports and imports of rice and
wheat for the last 10 years show that India imported about 7.9 million tonnes of
wheat during 2006-08. However, taking the five year average from 2006-07 to
2010-11, India has been net exporter of rice plus wheat, mainly owing to rice
exports, even though the exports of rice went down considerably. During 2008-09,
62 per cent of rice exported from India was basmati rice. The share of basmati rice
in total rice exports went up to 94 per cent in 2009-10 and further to 96 per cent in
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2010-11. As mentioned in the preceding section, during the last three years,
exports of non-basmati rice were restricted and basmati rice export was allowed
only at a price higher.
Indian Basmati is long grain aromatic rice with a unique, pleasing and
appetizing aroma. It is the aroma that gives basmati its novel characteristics
unmatched by any other rice grain anywhere else in the world. The Punjab,
Haryana, Uttaranchal, Western Uttar Pradesh and the southern part. The climate,
soil and water in this region combine to give Indian Basmati its unique qualities
and characteristics. Its unique quality and characteristics cannot be replicated if
grown anywhere else. In more ways than one, Basmati is nature's gift to the
Indian subcontinent and commands the highest price amongst all the rice varieties
in India. This rice has high analyse content and a firm almost dry texture when
properly cooked. The best Indian Basmati is aged for at least one year to increase
firmness, quality and elongation after cooking. Because of its quality
characteristics, basmati rice fetches a higher price in the international market.
FAO study by Conforti, (2004) indicated a considerable degree of linkage
between India’s domestic and world reference prices. His estimates indicated
evidence of long run equilibrium in the spatial transmission between the domestic
and the world reference prices of wheat, maize, cassava, milk powder, and to
some extent rice. However, fluctuations in world market prices were in general
transmitted to countries export unit values, but not to producer prices due to
government intervention (Hazellet al16., 1990).
Futures trading in rice were suspended by the Forward Market
Commission. On October 9, 2007, a ban on export of non-basmati rice was
imposed (except some organic rice and for food aid). On October 25, 2007: Ban
on export of rice was revised and on export above the Minimum Export Prices
(MEP) of US$ 425 per tonne (F.O.B.) was permitted. In December 2007: the
Minimum Export Prices (MEP) for non-basmati rice exports was raised to US$
500 per tonne. Export of basmati rice was allowed but Minimum Export Prices
(MEP) was imposed at US$ 900 per tonne, to prevent non-basmati rice being
labelled as basmati rice for export. In March 2008, import duty on semi-milled or
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wholly milled rice was reduced to zero, to augment rice supplies in the domestic
market. In March 2008, Minimum Export Prices (MEPs) for both basmati and
non-basmati rice were further raised. On March 17, 2008, basmati rice exports
were restricted to only two ports (Mundra and Pipavav). The imports of wheat on
government account continued and till March 2008 aggregated to 1.8 million
tonnes (since April 2007). Export of non-basmati rice was permitted on
diplomatic and humanitarian considerations. In February 2011, the government
allowed the export of 1,50,000 tonnes of three premium non-basmati rice
varieties. India exported 2.3 million tonnes of rice, which was mainly basmati
rice, during the year. Depreciation of Indian rupee also helped in increasing
exports. Indian exports reportedly pulled down global prices of rice. The futures
trading continued to remain banned.
At country level, agricultural sector contributed 10.57 per cent of national
exports in 2009-10. India’s agricultural exports have increased from Rs. 6,013
crores in 1990-91 to Rs. 89341.33 crores in 2009-10. Rice, tea, coffee, oil-seeds,
fruits and vegetables, cashew and sugar are the major agricultural exports of India
and have a major the share in world. At the same time, India’s agricultural imports
also have increased from Rs. 1,206 crores in 1990-91 to Rs. 59,528crores in 2009-
10 (accounts for 4.37 per cent in total India’s imports).
Broadly, the present study has been divided into four sections. First
section, understanding the structure of India’s major agricultural exports and
imports in comparison with over the decade. Second consistency of India's Export
Performance in Rice, third section, Impact of Wholesale Prices on Rice in India.
Final section, the existing rice export, import and wholesale prices
competitiveness suggestions and improving the trade competitiveness will be
discussed.
5.2. Trend Analysis in Agricultural Export and Import in India:
At the time of the Uruguay Round negotiations, Indian agriculture was
reasonably competitive (Gulati and Kelley 1999; Gulati. et, al., 1994), so trade
liberalization would not necessarily be expected to have an adverse impact.
Commodities such as rice and wheat, India‘s major staples, turned out to be
142
efficient import substitutes and export competitive for several years. The only
major uncompetitive commodity seemed to be oilseeds and edible oils, which are
produced at high cost in India. Milk was also of concern, although trends in the
1990s were encouraging (Sharma and Gulati 2002).
Table-5.1 Percentage share of Agriculture exports and imports in the total exports and imports of India. (Value in Rupees in Crores)
Source: Director General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Ministry of commerce, Kolkata.
Table-5.1 present share of agricultural Commodities in India’s Imports and
Exports from 1990-91 to 2009-10. The share of agricultural commodities in India’s
total imports has indicated a trend of fluctuation during the two decades in the post
reform period from 1990-91 to 2009-10. Imports of agricultural commodities
fluctuated at a lower level between 1990-91 to 1995-96 a higher of agricultural
Year
% share of agriculture Imports to Total National Imports
% share of agriculture Exports to Total National Exports
1990-91 2.79 18.49
1991-92 3.09 17.80
1992-93 4.54 16.84
1993-94 3.18 18.05
1994-95 6.60 15.99
1995-96 4.80 19.18
1996-97 4.76 20.33
1997-98 5.70 19.09
1998-99 8.17 18.25
1999-00 7.45 15.91
2000-01 5.29 14.23
2001-02 6.63 14.22
2002-03 5.92 13.58
2003-04 6.12 12.70
2004-05 4.55 11.08
2005-06 3.26 10.78
2006-07 3.53 10.92
2007-08 2.95 12.05
2008-09 2.71 10.22
2009-10 4.38 10.59
Co-efficient Variation (CV)
1990-91 to 1999-00 CV 79.56 47.00
2000-01 to 2009-10 CV 50.70 43.99
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
1990-91 to 1999-00 CAGR 33.79 18.96
2000-01 to 2009-10 CAGR 15.38 15.32
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imports in total imports is observed between 1996-97 to 2003-04 but here too a
trend of fluctuations is found. However, a declining trend of the share of agricultural
imports in total imports of India is found from 2004-05 to 2009-10.
The share of agricultural exports in total exports from India has been high
during the first decade during the reform era from 1990-91 to 1999-2000 though
there are marginal fluctuations during the decade. The share of agricultural exports
in Indias total export has indicated an almost continuous decline during the decade
from 2000-01 to 2009-10. There is need for enhancing the exports of agricultural
commodities from India. India is one of the major exporter of agricultural
commodities in the world. An all out effort must be made to boost exports,
enhanced exports are needed to boost not only foreign exchange but also for
ensuring better price for producers of agricultural commodities.
5.3. Consistency of India's Export Performance In Rice: Table-5.2 Percentage Share of rice export of agriculture export and rice production
of rice export in India (Value in Rupees in Crores, Produ in million tonnes)
Year Agriculture
Export Rice
Export
% Share of rice
Export in Agri export of India
Rice Produ
Rice Export
% Share of rice
Product in rice export of India
1990-91 6019 462 7.67 74.29 461.6 16.09
1991-92 7895 756 9.57 74.68 755.6 9.88
1992-93 9082 976 10.74 72.86 975.6 7.47
1993-94 12633 1287 10.19 80.30 1286.7 6.24
1994-95 13269 1206 9.09 81.81 1205.8 6.78
1995-96 20344 4568 22.45 76.98 4568.1 1.69
1996-97 24363 3172 13.02 81.73 3172.4 2.58
1997-98 24626 3371 13.69 82.54 3371 2.45
1998-99 25387 6281 24.74 86.08 6280.8 1.37
1999-00 24301 3126 12.86 89.68 3125.9 2.87
2000-01 27288 2932 10.75 84.98 2932.2 2.90
2001-02 28144 3174 11.28 93.34 3174.1 2.94
2002-03 32473 5831 17.96 71.82 5831.2 1.23
2003-04 34616 4168 12.04 88.53 4168 2.12
2004-05 38078 6769 17.78 83.13 6768.9 1.23
2005-06 45220 6221 13.76 91.79 6221.3 1.48
2006-07 57392 7036 12.26 93.35 7035.9 1.33
2007-08 74209 11755 15.84 96.69 11754.6 0.82
2008-09 80649 11164 13.84 99.18 11164.4 0.89
2009-10 84136 11255 13.38 89.13 11254.9 0.79
2010-11 112522 10803 9.60 95.32 10802.83 0.88
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Co-efficient of Variation (CV)
1990-91 to 1999-00 CV 46.38 75.79 -- 6.77 75.79 --
2000-01 to 2009-10 CV 44.26 47.24 -- 8.80 47.24 --
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)1990-91 to 1999-00
CAGR 18.58 29.20 -- 2.02 29.20 --
2000-01 to 2009-10 CAGR
15.18 17.00 -- 1.59 17.00 --
Source: www.calculated agricoop.com
Table-5.2 provides the detail share of rice exports in agricultural exports and
rice exports as percentage of rice production. The share of rice exports in total
exports of agricultural commodities has gone up during the first five years that is
during 1990s. The share of rice exports reached the peak of 24.74 per cent in
1998-99. However, the subsequent period has witnessed fluctuating trend with a
lower share of rice exports in total exports of agricultural commodities and
reached the lowest at 9.60 per cent in 2010-2011. The share of rice exports in
India’s total rice production has indicated a dismal picture. The share has slipped
down from 16.09 per cent in 1990-91 to 2.90 per cent in 2000-01 and further to
0.88 per cent in 2010-11. The above trend is reflected in the downward movement
of co-efficient of variation (CV) and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
The details indicate a discouraging performance of rice exports during the last two
decades. It is necessary for the government to boost rice exports through proper
incentives and though adequate market study in the major rice importing countries
since India as a major rice exporter has faced severe competition from some of the
Asian neighbours.
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Table-5.3 Percentage Share of Export in Basmati and Non-Basmati rice of export in total rice India (Quantity: in ' 000 Tonne; Value: Rs in Crore)
Year/ Commodities Basmati Non-Basmati Total Rice
Qnty Value Qnty Value Qnty Value
2008-2009 62.55 84.89 37.45 15.11 100.00 100.00
2009-2010 93.53 96.75 6.47 3.25 100.00 100.00
2010-2011 88.47 91.33 4017.45 1.92 100.00 100.00
2011-2012 24548.34 36.18 17233.23 11.62 100.00 100.00
Co-efficient of Variation (CV)
2008-09 to 2011-12 50.22 990.80 55.40 104.37 148.45 227.38
Source: www.calculated agricoop.com, GOI.
Table-5.3 provides the detail share of basmati and non-basmati rice exports
in total rice exports from India. Basmati rice is a high value variety of rice which
has greater demand in export market with better quality and taste. Basmati rice
gets higher export earnings compared to non-basmati rice. The share of basmati
rice in total export of rice is higher both in quantity as well as value compared to
non-basmati rice.
Rice (Basmati) Exports from India
Rice is one of the major agricultural exports from India. Basmati rice is in
great demand in many of the developed countries and in the Gulf region. India
with natural advantages of soil and climate has been a major exporter of this high
value agricultural product. The following table provides the details of Basmati
rice exports during the decade from 2001-02 to 2010-11.
146
Table-5.4 Exports of Basmati Rice from India
Year Quantity (‘000 tonnes) Value (Rs. crore)
2001-02 667.07 1842.77
2002-03 708.79 2058.47
2003-04 771.49 1993.05
2004-05 1163.00 2823.90
2005-06 1166.57 3043.10
2006-07 1045.73 2792.81
2007-08 1181.66 4334.77
2008-09 1556.38 9476.85
2009-10 2015.91 10838.86
2010-11 2186.44 10581.52
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operation, GOI.
Source: Table-5.4
Exports of Basmati rice has shown a trend of continuous increase during
the first half of the first decade from 667.07 thousand tonnes in 2001-02 to
1166.57 thousand tonnes in 2005-06. A small decline in exports to 1045.73
thousand tonnes in 2006-07 is followed by a revival of exports to 1181.66
thousand tonnes in 2007-08. A continuous rise is observed thereafter till the end
Fig. 4. : Exports of Basmati Rice from India
1842.77 2058.47 1993.05
2823.9 3043.1 2792.81
4334.77
9476.85
10838.86 10581.52
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Year
Value (Rs. in crore)
147
of the decade. Exports rose to 1556.38 thousand tonnes in 2008-09 and further to
2015.91 thousand tonnes in 2009-10. Exports reached the maximum volume of
2186.44 thousand tonnes by the end of decade in 2010-11.
The exports value of Basmati rice has been at a rising trend during the
decade with minor fluctuations. Exports registered an increase from Rs. 1842.77
crore in 2001-02 to Rs. 3043.10 crore in 2005-06. With a small decline to Rs.
2792.81 crore in 2006-07 the export earnings have maintained an upward trend.
The exports earnings of Basmati rice rose to Rs. 4334.77 crore in 2007-08 to a
maximum of Rs. 10581.52 crore in 2010-11. There is a good demand for India’s
Basmati rice in Europe, USA and the Gulf countries.
Export of Rice (Non-Bastmati) from India
Non-Basmati rice is one of the largest selling agricultural products from
India. India is a major competitor in the world’s export market for rice. Rice
exports from India during a period of ten years from 2001-02 to 2010-11 indicate
an upward trend with some fluctuations. The following table provides the details.
Table-5.5 Exports of Rice (Non-Basmati) from India
Year Quantity (‘000 tonnes) Value (Rs. crore)
2001-02 1541.49 1331.37
2002-03 4259.08 3772.77
2003-04 2640.57 2174.94
2004-05 3615.10 3945.02
2005-06 2921.60 3178.17
2006-07 3702.22 4243.10
2007-08 5314.18 7396.23
2008-09 949.99 1691.43
2009-10 139.37 414.76
2010-11 96.08 220.26
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operation, GOI.
148
Source: Table-5.5
India has been exporting non-Basmati rice to many countries in the world
from the beginning of its trade in agricultural commodities. Non-Basmati rice
exports have been facing competition from some of the Asian neighbours. Hence
there is a fluctuating trend in both volume and value of exports of this variety of
rice during the decade. Exports volume of non-Basmati rice rose from 1541.49
thousand tonnes in 2001-02 to 4259.08 thousand tonnes in 2002-03. A sharp
decline in export to 2460.57 thousand tonnes was witnessed in 2003-04 with a
revival to 3615.10 thousand tonnes in 2004-05. This fluctuating trend in the
volume of exports of non-Basmati rice was further observed as exports declined to
a low of 2921.60 thousand tonnes in 2005-06 and a good revival to 3702.22
thousand tonnes in 2006-07 and further to a maximum of 5314.18 thousand
tonnes in 2007-08. A continuous decline in exports of non-Basmati rice is
observed during the next 3 years. Exports declined to a low of 949.99 thousand
tonnes in 2008-08 and further to 139.37 thousand tonnes in 2009-10 before
reaching the lowest level of 96.08 thousand tonnes in 2010-11.
Fig. 5 : Exports of Rice (Non-Basmati) from India
1331.37
3772.77
2174.94
3945.02
3178.17
4243.1
7396.23
1691.43
414.76220.26
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Year
Value (Rs. in crore)
149
The value of export of non-Basmati rice from India has fluctuated during
the corresponding period. Export earnings rose from Rs. 1331.37 crore in 2001-02
to Rs. 3945.02 crore in 2004-05 with a decline to Rs. 3178.17 crore in 2005-06,
exports reached the maximum of Rs. 7396.23 crore in 2007-08. There is a
continuous decline in exports earnings reaching the lowest level of Rs. 220.26
crore in 2010-11.
Table-5.6 Percentage Share of Rice Export of Total Food Grains and Agriculture Export National Exports of India (Qnty: 000 tonne’s)
Source: www.calculated agricoop.com, GOI.
Table-5.6 provides the details share of rice exports in total food grains and
agricultural export in India. There is increasing trend of share of rice exports in total food
grains during the first decade from 1990-91 to 1999-2000. Rice exports has high share in
Year Rice Total Food
Grains
% Share of rice export
of total food grains export in India
Agri Export
Total National Export
% Agri Exports to
total exports
1990-91 504.99 666.6 75.76 6012.76 32527.28 18.49
1991-92 678.24 1376.45 49.27 7838.13 44041.81 17.8
1992-93 580.4 668.52 86.82 9040.3 53688.26 16.84
1993-94 767.67 936.41 81.98 12586.55 69748.85 18.05
1994-95 890.57 1112.17 80.07 13222.76 82673.4 15.99
1995-96 4914.01 5636.29 87.19 20397.74 106353.4 19.18
1996-97 2511.98 3783.72 66.39 24161.29 118817.3 20.33
1997-98 2389.86 2573.96 92.85 24843.45 130100.6 19.09
1998-99 4963.59 5078.72 97.73 25510.64 139751.8 18.25
1999-00 1896.12 2098.41 90.36 25313.66 159095.2 15.91
2000-01 1534.48 2637.36 58.18 28657.37 201356.5 14.23
2001-02 2210.98 5156.55 42.88 29728.61 209018 14.22
2002-03 5057.43 8979.51 56.32 34653.94 255137.3 13.58
2003-04 3412.05 8223.49 41.49 37266.52 293366.8 12.7
2004-05 4796.66 8185.39 58.60 41602.65 375339.5 11.08
2005-06 4088.06 5820.59 70.23 49216.96 456417.9 10.78
2006-07 3379.46 3455.79 97.79 62411.42 571779.3 10.92
2007-08 2670.86 1090.99 244.81 79039.72 655863.5 12.05
2008-09 1962.26 -1273.81 -154.05 85951.67 840755.1 10.22
2009-10 1253.66 -3638.61 -34.45 89341.33 845533.6 10.57
Co-efficient of Variation (CV) 1990-91 to
1999-00 85.29 76.97 17.63 47.01 46.42 7.88 2000-01 to
2009-10 4.38 10.96 20.72 50.25 58.47 12.98
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food grains export varying from 49.27 per cent in 1991-92 to 97.73 per cent in 1998-99.
There is a decline in the subsequent years from 2000-01 to 2009-10. A similar trend of
comparatively higher percentage of rice export in total exports is seen during the first
decade from 1990-91 to 1999-2000. A relatively lower percentage of rice exports in the
total exports from India is observed during the next decade from 2000-01 to 2009-10.
The declining trend of rice exports needs to be handled properly and all steps need to be
taken to enhance rice exports.
Table-5.7 Percentage Share of Rice Imports in the total food-grains imports of India (Qnty: 000 tonne’s)
Source: www.calculated agricoop.com, GOI.
Table-5.7 provides the detail share of rice imports of total food grains and
agricultural import and total of imports India. Rice imports as compared to
Year Rice
Import
Total Food Grains Import
% Share of rice Import
of total food grains
Import in India
Agri Import
Total National Import
% Agri Imports to total imports
1990-91 66.04 1402.29 4.71 1205.86 43170.82 2.79
1991-92 12.12 324.73 3.73 1478.27 47850.84 3.09
1992-93 102.38 1848.7 5.54 2876.25 63374.52 4.54
1993-94 75.52 945.18 7.99 2327.33 73101.01 3.18
1994-95 6.99 561.61 1.24 5937.21 89970.70 6.60
1995-96 0.08 493.98 0.02 5890.10 122678.14 4.80
1996-97 0.00 1267.63 0.00 6612.60 138919.88 4.76
1997-98 0.05 2494.41 0.00 8784.19 154176.29 5.70
1998-99 6.63 2375.89 0.28 14566.48 178331.69 8.17
1999-00 34.99 1858.6 1.88 16066.73 215528.53 7.45
2000-01 13.2 397.18 3.32 12086.23 228306.64 5.29
2001-02 0.06 2238.16 0.00 16256.61 245199.72 6.63
2002-03 0.87 1996.59 0.04 17608.83 297205.87 5.92
2003-04 0.05 1725.37 0.00 21972.68 359107.66 6.12
2004-05 - 1342.33 -- 22811.84 501064.54 4.55
2005-06 0.26 1719.14 0.02 21499.22 660408.90 3.26
2006-07 0.16 8052.16 0.00 29637.86 840506.31 3.53
2007-08 0.15 4633.62 0.00 29906.24 1012311.70 2.95
2008-09 0.09 2389.48 0.00 37183.03 1374435.55 2.71
2009-10 0.03 145.34 0.02 59367.62 1356468.65 4.38
Co-efficient of Variation (CV) 1990-91 to 1999-
00 81.08 174.46 90.22 79.56 52.03 36.41 2000-01 to 2009-
10 5.20 124.44 2.21 50.70 64.15 31.10
151
percentage of total food imports were higher between 1990-91 and 1993-94. Then
onwards rice imports as a percentage of total food imports have been negligible or
null except in 2000-01. Agricultural imports as percentage of total imports have
increased almost continuously from 1990-91 to 2003-04. But a declining trend is
observed during the last 6 years i., e. from 2004-05 till 2009-10.
Table-5.8 provides the detail share of basmati rice exports in total rice
exports 2004-05 to 2009-10. The share of basmati rice exports have increased in
terms of quantity and value during the period from 2004-05 to 2009-10 except in
two years 2006-07 and 2007-08. However, the unit value of exports of basmati
rice has gone up from 2004-05 to 2007-08 but declined in the last two years i.e.,
during 2008-09 and 2009-10. The unit value of exports of rice has gone up
continuously during 2004-05 to 2009-10. However, quantity and value of rice
exports from India have fluctuated several times and have reached the lowest level
in the year 2009-10.
Table-5.8 Percentage share of Basmati rice exports in the total rice exports of India during 2004-05 to 2009-10 (Quantity: ‘000 Tonne; Value: Rs. in Crore; Unit Value: Rs. Per Kg.)
Year Basmati Rice Total Rice
Quantity Value Unit Value Quantity Value Unit Value
2004-05 23.98 41.43 172.78 4796.66 6696.43 13.96
2005-06 28.54 48.91 171.42 4088.06 6221.27 15.22
2006-07 22.02 39.69 180.16 4747.91 7034.65 14.82
2007-08 18.29 36.96 202.04 6469.25 11754.38 18.17
2008-09 62.55 84.89 135.70 2488.29 11164.4 44.87
2009-10 91.24 97.26 106.61 940.41 5121.52 54.46
Co-efficient of Variation (CV)
2004-05 to 2009-10 19.74 56.25 42.96 49.59 34.55 66.63 Source: www.calculated agricoop.com, GOI
Table-5.9 provides the details percentage share of imports of basmati rice
in total rice import in India. Quantity of imports of Basmati rice in total rice
imports declined steeply from 0.015 in 2005-06 to 0.002 in 2006-07. Thereafter
the share has remained low at 0.004 in 2008-09 and 2009-10. Value has remained
stable during 2005-06 to 2009-10 except in 2006-07. However unit value has
fluctuated during the period from 2005-06 to 2009-10. The total rice import
during the above period has fluctuated in terms of quantity value and unit value.
152
Table-5.9 Percentage share of Basmati Rice imports in the total rice imports of India during 2005-06 to 2009-10 (Quantity: ‘000 Tonne; Value: Rs. in Crore;
Unit Value: Rs. Per Kg.)
Year Basmati Rice Total Rice
Qty. Value Unit Value Qty. Value Unit Value
2005-06 0.015 0.01 89.90 1719.71 2502.43 14.55
2006-07 0.002 0.00 218.69 8052.17 9440.48 11.72
2007-08 0.003 0.01 167.28 4629.09 8035.49 17.36
2008-09 0.004 0.01 250.60 2389.48 6020.56 25.2
2009-10 0.004 0.01 199.19 515.45 1647.44 31.96
Co-efficient of Variation (CV)
2005-06 to 2009-10 65.48 38.55 59.46 85.83 61.36 41.15
Source: www.calculated agricoop.com, GOI.
Table-5.10 provides the details share of exports in production of rice in India.
The data for the two decades of production and exports of rice has clearly indicated
an almost continuous decline in the percentage of exports to production of rice from
1990-91 to 2009-10. The share of exports of rice declined from 8.34 per cent in
1990-91 to 2.81 per cent in 2000-01. A further decline to 1.57 per cent was in 2007-
08 with a trend of rise during the next two years in 2008-09 and 2009-10. Severe
competition from major rice producing countries in Asia and other countries in the
major importing countries and continuous rise in domestic consumption of rice in the
country have contributed to this trend.
153
Table-5.10 Percentage Share of rice exports in the total Production of rice in India
Year Production Export % Share of Production
In Export in India
1990-91 42.12 504.99 8.34
1991-92 44.35 678.24 6.54
1992-93 40.6 580.4 7.00
1993-94 43.58 767.67 5.68
1994-95 42.72 890.57 4.80
1995-96 42.67 4914.01 0.87
1996-97 40.98 2511.98 1.63
1997-98 42.74 2389.86 1.79
1998-99 42.28 4963.59 0.85
1999-00 42.75 1896.12 2.25
2000-01 43.18 1534.48 2.81
2001-02 43.85 2210.98 1.98
2002-03 41.09 5057.43 0.81
2003-04 41.53 3412.05 1.22
2004-05 41.91 4796.66 0.87
2005-06 44 4088.06 1.08
2006-07 42.96 3379.46 1.27
2007-08 41.9 2670.86 1.57
2008-09 42.3 1962.26 2.16
2009-10 40.86 1253.66 3.26 1990-91 to 1999-00
CV 2.59 85.29 ---
2001-02 to 2009-10 CV
2.60 43.84 ---
Source: www.calculated agricoop.com, GOI. 5.4. IMPACT OF WHOLESALE PRICES ON RICE IN INDIA
Table-5.11 Major Centre –wise Wholesale Prices of Rice in India during Sept-2009 to Sept-2011 (In Rs. /Qntal)
Source:www.caluculatedcacp.com, GOI.
Month Delhi Mumbai Chennai Hyderabad Sept., 09 1750 1575 1900 1600 Dec., 09 200 1725 1900 1500 Mar., 10 1975 1775 1800 1500 Jun., 10 1950 1650 1800 1633 Sep., 10 1880 1850 1800 1600 Dec., 10 1975 1850 1900 1600 Mar., 11 1950 1850 1900 1767 Jun., 11 1925 1800 1900 173 Sept., 11 1975 1850 1900 1750 Over the Month sept-2009 to Sept-2011
15580 15925 16800 9955
154
Table-5.11 provides the details wholesale price of rice in major centres
changing 2009 to 2011. Wholesale price of rice in Delhi has been the highest
during sept-2009 to sept-2011 (except in Dec-2009). Compared to the wholesale
price of rice Mumbai, Chennai and Hyderabad during the corresponding months
in 2009, 2010 and 2011, wholesale price of rice in Hyderabad was relatively
lower compared to other three relatively lower. Wholesale price of rice was lower
in Mumbai compared to the wholesale price in Delhi and Chennai during the
corresponding period.
Table-5.12 Average wholesale Prices of Paddy and Rice in Andhra Pradesh during 2001-02 to 2010-11 (Price per Quintal in Rs)
Year Paddy (Ist Sort) Paddy (IInd Sort) Rice (Ist Sort) Rice (IInd Sort)2001-02 749.06 616.36 1396.44 979.47 2002-03 824.43 655.43 1582.07 1019.95 2003-04 641.13 527.83 1473.18 925.66 2004-05 656.24 565.11 1344.79 925.34 2005-06 747.96 658.36 1423.68 1023.77 2006-07 795.41 675.6 1636.03 1163.81 2007-08 834.92 722.31 1630.08 1210.83 2008-09 1113.01 919.93 2043.22 1467.76 2009-10 1391.1 1117.55 2456.36 1724.69 2010-11 1669.19 1315.17 2869.5 1981.62 Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Govt of Andhra Pradesh.
Table-5.12 provides the detail average wholesale prices of paddy and rice in
Andhra Pradesh (2001-02 to 2010-12). There is a trend of fluctuations of wholesale
prices of paddy of 1st sort during 2001-02 to 2003-04. However a trend of continuous
size in wholesale prices of paddy of 1st sort from 2004-05 to 2010-11 is observed. A
similar trend is observed for wholesale prices of paddy of IInd sort during the
corresponding period in Andhra Pradesh. An upward movement of wholesale prices
of rice with smaller fluctuations during the period from 2001-02 to 2010-11 has been
observed regarding the two varieties 1st and IInd sort in Andhra Pradesh.
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Table-5.13 Growth Rate of Wholesale Price Rice in food-grains Index in India (Year=1993-94=100)
Source: Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, GOI Note: (P) Provisional.
Table-5.13 provides the detail there is a trend of fluctuations in the of
growth rate of wholesale price Index of food-grains and Cereals and rice
during the period from 1998-99 to 2009-10. The positive growth of price
index for wholesale price of food-grains, cereals and rice during the first two
years from 1998-99 to 1999-00 followed by a negative growth rate during the
next two years. The wholesale price index has indicated a positive but slow
growth till 2004-05 followed by a significant increase in the wholesale price
index of food-grain, cereals and rice till 2009-10. The average growth rates of
wholesale price of all the three group of food grains during 1998-99 to 2000-
01 have been largely the same. However, the average rate of growth of
wholesale price of food grains is marginally higher than the other two groups
during 2001-02 to 2009-10. In the subsequent period the difference in the
growth of average wholesale in the growth of average wholesale price of
food-grains, cereals and rice are very close to each other.
Year Food-grains Cereals Rice 1998-99 9.12 9.03 8.86 1999-00 16.05 17.83 17.17 2000-01 -1.47 -2.70 -2.22 2001-02 -0.81 -1.68 -0.30 2002-03 1.10 2.00 -0.60 2003-04 1.15 1.61 1.69 2004-05 0.68 0.91 -0.36 2005-06 5.35 4.44 3.75 2006-07 10.16 7.32 2.92 2007-08 4.61 6.17 6.74 2008-09 8.63 8.88 11.11 2009-10 (P) 15.55 13.54 14.41
1998-99 to 2000-01 Avg 23.70 24.16 23.81 2001-02 to 2009-10 Avg 46.43 43.19 39.36 1998-99 to 2000-01 CV 37.25 42.63 40.85 2001-02 to 2009-10 CV 11.64 10.87 13.63
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Chart-3 Growth Rate of Wholesale Price Cereals in Index of Food-grains in India
Source: table-5.13
Chart-4 Growth Rate of Wholesale Price Rice in Index of Food-grains in India
Chart-4 Growth Rate of Wholesale Price Rice in Index of Food-grains in India
Source: table-5.13
Chart-5 Growth Rate of Wholesale Price in Index of Food-grains in India
Source: table-5.13.
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Table-5.14 TRENDS IN WHOLESALE PRICE OF RICE FOOD GRAINS INDEX IN INDIA (Base Year=1993-94=100)
Year Food-grains Cereals Rice 1996-97 137.6 135.7 128.5 1997-98 139.3 138.4 134.3 1998-99 152 150.9 146.2 1999-00 176.4 177.8 171.3 2000-01 173.8 173 167.5 2001-02 172.4 170.1 167 2002-03 174.3 173.5 166 2003-04 176.3 176.3 168.8 2004-05 177.5 177.9 168.2 2005-06 187 185.8 174.5 2006-07 206 199.4 179.6 2007-08 215.5 211.7 191.7 2008-09 234.1 230.5 213 2009-10 270.5 261.7 243.7
1996-97 to 2000-01 CV 2.37 2.50 2.57 2001-02 to 2009-10 CV 1.85 1.74 1.59 1996-97 to 2000-01CAGR 7.29 7.64 8.04 2001-02 to 2009-10 CAGR 5.54 5.22 4.39
Source: Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, GOI Note: (P) Provisional.
Table-5.14 provides the detail of wholesale price of food-grains (general),
cereals and rice which have shown a trend of consistent rise with marginal
fluctuations in the intervening period between 1996-97 and 2009-10. There is a
greater degree of stability of prices of the three groups of food-grains during the
period from 2000-01 till 2009-10. The co-efficient of variance of the wholesale
price of food grains during the two periods from 1996-97 to 2000-01 and from
2001-02 to 2009-10, for the three groups have shown largely stable, similarly the
CAGR of wholesale prices too have indicated similar trend during the
corresponding period.
Table-5.15 Monthly Index of wholesale Price of Rice in India-2011
Monthly index of wholesale price of rice during 2011 has fluctuated
continuously. The wholesale price index varied between a minimum of 667.90
during March 2011 and a maximum of 852.80 per cent during January 2011. The
wholesale price index of rice during the next six months varied between a
158
minimum of 691.40 in August 2011 and a maximum of 881.60 in October 2011.
The wholesale price index slumped steeply to 346.20 in January 2012.
Table-5.15 Share of Percentage Monthly Index Wholesale Price of rice in India Weight: 1.79 Base Year: 2004-05=100
Source: www.caluculatedcacp.com, GOI. Table-5.16 Average wholesale Prices of Paddy and Rice in Andhra Pradesh during
2001-02 to 2010-11 (Price Per Quintal in Rs) Month/
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2005 -- -- -- 102.50 102.50 104.30 105.70 106.70 107.00 107.60 106.60 105.00
2006 104.90 105.00 105.00 105.60 106.40 107.00 107.30 107.80 108.90 111.70 112.00 111.90
2007 113.30 113.90 114.50 115.70 116.20 116.60 117.80 119.30 120.60 126.10 125.40 124.80
2008 127.30 128.80 130.90 132.60 132.70 132.60 133.90 134.90 135.70 145.00 146.30 146.30
2009 147.00 149.30 151.10 150.90 151.00 151.80 151.40 153.10 157.60 160.20 162.60 164.50
2010 164.70 164.10 163.30 163.50 163.50 164.30 165.90 164.40 166.60 168.70 170.30 171.10
2011 170.60 170.40 167.00 167.30 169.70 169.00 169.90 172.90 173.30 176.30 175.40 173.10
2012 172.20 173.00 175.40 177.30 178.00 181.60 186.80 190.70 194.80 -- -- --
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Govt of Andhra Pradesh.
Date/Month Index
01/01/2011 to 29/01/2011 852.80
05/02/2011 to 26/02/2011 681.50
05/03/2011 to 26/03/2011 667.90
02/04/2011 to 30/04/2011 836.60
07/05/2011 to 28/05/2011 678.70
04/06/2011 to 25/06/2011 676.10
02/07/2011 to 30/07/2011 849.70
06/08/2011 to 27/08/2011 691.40
03/09/2011 to 24/09/2011 693.20
01/10/2011 to 29/10/2011 881.60
05/11/2011 to 26/11/2011 701.20
03/12/2011 to 31/12/2011 869.20
07/01/2012 to 14/01/2012 346.20
Total 9426.10
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Table-5.16 Monthly and Year wise wholesale Price of Rice in India
There is a trend of uniformity in the month-wise and year wise wholesale
price of rice in India during 8 years from 2005 to 2012. A continuous rise in
wholesale price of rice during all the eight years and during all the 12 months from
January to December has negative fluctuations during the 8 years during all the 12
months have been found in this context. A maximum rise of wholesale price during
the eight year (2012) was found at 194.80 in September. However, month to month
variations in wholesale price of rice in individual years are observed during 2007,
2009, 2010 and 2011. They are however marginal variations during certain months.
Overall there is a trend of increase in wholesale price of rice each year between
January to December.
Chart-6
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GOI
Chart-7
160
Chart-8
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GOI
Chart-9
Chart-10
161
Chart-11
Chart-12
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GOI
5.5 CONCLUSION:
Exports and imports of rice are related to the framework of food security
and food management policy. From a situation of heavy dependence on imports of
basic staple food in the middle 1960s India steered itself to a comfortable situation
during the 1990s and during the current millennium basmati rice has emerged as
an important component in India’s exports of rice with its distinct long-grain
aroma and appetizing qualities. There is an all-round increase in growth of rice
exports in relation to total agricultural exports and total production of rice in the
162
country. However, in recent period the severe competition in importing countries
in case of rice exports have been witnessing a declining trend. Added to this is the
increased consumption of rice in the country. Index of wholesale price of rice in
different centres in the country indicates a trend of fluctuations. Rice imports as a
percentage of total imports of food-grains have indicated a declining trend.