fbic global retail tech overview on mems feb. 5 …...title microsoft word - fbic global retail tech...

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February 5, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: MEMS Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

February 5, 2015

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r – H e a d G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

MEMS The Little Engines That Can Enable Wearable Technology and the Internet of Things • MEMS stands for microelectromechanical systems. They are tiny

machines that can serve as sensors or actuators powered by an electrical signal

• The devices follow Moore’s Law in that their price and performance improve over time, offering new applications and huge benefits for consumers

• We use MEMS every time we drive an automobile that has an airbag, use a smartphone, print a document on an inkjet printer, or watch a movie on a projection TV

• The low cost and high performance of MEMS make them an enabler of wearable technology and the Internet of Things

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MEMS: The Little Engines That Can Enable Wearable Technology and the Internet of Things

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MEMS are tiny machines that have revolutionized our lives and will enable many exciting new future products. They are tiny devices that can act as sensors or make tiny movements when activated by an electrical signal. We use MEMS every time we drive an automobile that has an airbag, use a smartphone, print a document on an inkjet printer, or watch a movie on a projection TV. Smartphones contain several MEMS, and the number of MEMS per phone is set to increase further.

MEMS are manufactured using yesterday’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which initially positions them at a low cost point, and their price and performance only get better over time, due to continued technical innovation and Moore’s Law, which we interpret to mean that the cost of semiconductors halves every 18 months.

Semiconductor economics have dramatically reduced the cost and raised the performance of MEMS, making them enablers of today’s consumer electronic products such as smartphones, digital cameras, automobile airbags, inkjet printers, and projection TVs, but also for other applications such as microfluidic labs-‐on-‐a-‐chip, which are used for chemical and biological analysis.

As the ever-‐decreasing cost of MEMS drives them deeper within the consumer sphere, they will enable new leading-‐edge applications such as wearable technology and the Internet of Things. In addition, engineers are exploring using MEMS for energy harvesting, in-‐vitro diagnostics, and wireless sensor networks. Small is indeed sometimes beautiful.

WHAT ARE MEMS? MEMS stands for microelectromechanical systems. That’s a mouthful, but they are just tiny machines that are actuated with electricity.

We use MEMS every time we drive an automobile that has an airbag, use a smartphone, print a document on an ink-‐jet printer, or watch a movie on a projection TV.

What’s different from ordinary machines is that MEMS are typically manufactured from silicon wafers with older-‐generation semiconductor-‐processing equipment. This helps keep costs low by not requiring multibillion-‐dollar semiconductor factories (fabs), which can easily cost a couple billion dollars for a leading-‐edge fab.

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Figure 1. Photo of a MEMS

Source: memx.com

MEMS generally fall within two categories:

• Sensors that measure characteristics of the outside world; or • Actuators that manipulate characteristics in the outside world

Applications for MEMS include the following:

• Inkjet printers • Accelerometers in automobile airbags; radio-‐controlled helicopters, planes or

drones; video-‐game controllers, cellphones, digital cameras, and hard drives • Gyroscopes in automobiles • Microphones in mobile phones and portable devices • Displays, such as DLP (digital light processor) projection TVs and projectors • Optical switching • Sensors for chemical analysis in a lab-‐on-‐a-‐chip for chemical analysis or

embedded in medical devices • Interferometric displays in consumer electronic devices • Fluid acceleration such as micro-‐cooling • Energy harvesting; and • Ultrasound transducers

ENORMOUS COST SAVINGS DUE TO MOORE’S LAW The price of MEMS continues to decline exponentially over time due to rising volumes and the economics of Moore’s Law, which is commonly understood to mean that the performance of integrated circuits doubles every 18 months. What former Intel CEO Gordon Moore really observed is that the density of circuits on a semiconductor wafer doubles every 18 months. Since performance is roughly proportional to the number of transistors, the common understanding of the law suffices. The corollary is that with more chips per wafer, the price per chip also halves every 18 months, which has brought enormous cost benefits to consumers. Cost savings are achieved by putting more chips on a wafer and by using larger wafers.

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In Figure 2, we see these benefits in action, as the explosive demand for MEMS accelerometers has gone hand-‐in-‐hand with price reductions over time.

Figure 2. MEMS Market Evolution: Accelerometers for Automotive and Consumer

1990 1996 2002 2007 2012 Market Size (M units)

0.5-‐2.0 18 90 130 1,900

Average Selling Price (ASP)

$5 $4 $2 $1.40 < $1.00

Average Number of Accelerometers

— 13 for automotive

8 for automotive

5 for consumer

8 for automotive

10 for consumer

Consumer [activity] is very strong

Source: Yole Développement

WHY ARE MEMS IMPORTANT? MEMS are instrumental in today’s smartphones, in wearable technology, and in the Internet of Things. For example, the iPhone 6 contains several MEMS, including a three axis accelerometer (which measures acceleration) and a six-‐axis gyroscope/ accelerometer (which measures movement and acceleration.) The iPhone 5S contained a MEMS microphone, however its presence has not yet been verified in the iPhone 6. Looking ahead, Apple has received a patent for a MEMS autofocus camera actuator, so the number of MEMS used in Apple smartphones is likely to increase further.

The smartphone of the future could include nine different MEMS (depicted in red):

• A nine-‐axis combo accelerometer/gyroscope

• A combo pressure, humidity, and temperature sensor

• Several microphones

• Silicon timing for oscillators and clocks

• Antenna switching

• Gas/biochemical sensors

• Autofocus

• Mirrors

• Microspeakers

• A touchscreen

• An infrared (IR) sensor

The smartphone of the future could have several additional functions performed by MEMS, including:

• Energy harvesting

• An ultraviolet (UV) sensor

• Light detection and ranging (LIDAR)

• An ultrasonic sensor

• A radiation sensor, and

• A joystick

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Figure 3. Tomorrow’s Smartphone Could Use 9 Different MEMS (in Red)

Source: Yole Développement – MEMS for Cell Phones & Tablets, July 2013

ENABLING FUTURE PRODUCTS Due to their small size, high functionality, and low cost, MEMS are an excellent choice for the sensors in wearable technology. The Figure 4 shows places that wearables and MEMS can be deployed.

Figure 4. Locations for Integrated Wearable Electronics with Clothing

Source: electronicdesign.com

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Figure 5 depicts a forecast for shipments of MEMS for wearable electronics, with the market representing approximately 180 million units this year, growing at a 27% CAGR through 2019. This growth rate is approximately twice the growth rate of the aggregate MEMS market (see markets section).

Figure 5. Explosive Growth in MEMS Shipments for Wearables (Mil. Units)

Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for Wearables Report -‐ 2014

From the graph, we can draw the following conclusions: Between 2015 and 2017, Smartwatches are clearly expected to be the largest product category. The second-‐largest category in 2017 is expected to be Smart Glasses, followed by Fitness & Heart Rate Monitors.

ENABLING NEW TECHNOLOGIES Energy Harvesting

Energy harvesting (or scavenging) refers to energy from the environment being captured or stored by a device. There are many sources of this energy, including machine vibrations, body heat, solar, ocean tides, etc. The amount of energy that can be harvested is quite low (5 to 200 Watts per cubic centimeter); however, this trickle could be sufficient for some sensors and wearable devices. The graph below shows the amount of energy available from various sources.

Figure 6. Power by Technology

Source: Yole Développement and Holst Centre

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Medical

MEMS are already being used in tiny pumps and valves in microfluidic lab-‐on-‐a-‐chip applications. The technology is poised to advance the huge in-‐vitro diagnostics (IvD) market, where the annual market is estimated will grow to $70 billion in 2017 from $50 billion in 2012, a 7% CAGR, according to Research and Markets. The drivers of this growth are: (1) the move to point-‐of-‐care testing—patients increasingly prefer to get tested in a doctor’s office, rather than in a hospital; (2) the need to receive results faster; (3) the demand for lower-‐cost tests in developing countries; and (4) the need for new tests suited for an aging population.

Figure 7. A Microfluidics Lab-‐on-‐a-‐Chip

Source: Agilent Technologies

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs)

The low cost and small size of MEMS sensors makes them ideal for use in nodes in wireless sensor networks, which are comprised of a large number of small sensor nodes with limited computing capacity, limited memory, limited power availability, and short-‐range radio communications capability, according to enroutefiltering.blogspot.com. WSNs can cooperatively monitor physical or environmental conditions, such as temperature, sound, and vibration at different locations, according to Yole.

Figure 8. Wireless Sensor Network

Source: enroutefiltering.blogspot.com

Small, lower-‐power modules with computational and communications capabilities are generally considered nodes in the Internet of Things (IoT).

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THE MEMS MARKET The MEMS market is worth approximately $15.6 billion this year, growing at a 13% CAGR through 2018.

Figure 9. MEMS Market by Type ($Mil.)

Source: Yole Développement – Status of the MEMS Industry, July 2013

In Figure 10, which forecasts the 2017 MEMS market breakdown, we see that the largest categories are expected to be microfluidics (for chemical and biological analysis), optical MEMS (for optical communications networks), pressure sensors, and inkjet printer heads. This forecast precedes Hewlett-‐Packard’s announcement of a consumer 3D printer that uses its inkjet technology, and therefore this category could turn out to be much larger.

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Figure 10. Expected 2017 MEMS Market Breakdown

Note: Forecast as of 2012 Source: Yole Développement – Status of the MEMS Industry, July 2013

HOW ARE MEMS MADE? MEMS are manufactured using ordinary semiconductor processing equipment for silicon integrated circuits, as illustrated in Figure 11.

Figure 11. Illustration of MEMS Manufacturing

InkJet Heads 9%

Pressure Sensors 11%

Microphones 4%

Accelerometers 8%

Gyroscopes 7%

Compasses 2% Combos

8% Uncooled IR 3%

Micro Displays 1%

Opical MEMS 12%

Microfluidics 23%

RF MEMS 5%

Oscillators 2%

Others 5%

Silicon Ingot Factory(Fab)

ProcessedWafer

Dicing, Packaging,and Assembly & Test

FinishedMEMS Chips

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MEMS feature sizes (the width of the lines of silicon) are quite large (0.1 µm, or one-‐tenth of a millionth of a meter), whereas the current leading edge of semiconductor manufacturing uses 20-‐nanometer (20 billionths of a meter) line widths. Thus, the MEMS industry is able to use semiconductor-‐processing equipment that is technologically no longer on the leading edge, offering huge cost savings to consumers.

Today, approximately one-‐third of MEMS manufacturing is fabless, i.e., manufacturing and assembly & test are outsourced to a foundry and contract manufacturer, respectively. This frees the manufacturer from bearing the fixed cost (including substantial depreciation) of a multimillion (or billion)-‐dollar semiconductor factory, which is highly uneconomical when underutilized.

Figure 12. MEMS—Fabless Is Increasingly Fabulous

Source: IHS

WHO MAKES MEMS? The top MEMS makers are generally:

• Large semiconductor makers such as STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments • Conglomerates such as Panasonic and Canon • Global manufacturing companies such as Bosch and Honeywell, and also • Specialty sensor makers such as InvenSense

The top-‐30 manufacturers’ revenues are depicted in the graph below. Together, the top 30 manufacturers accounted for nearly 73% of the total market in 2012.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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90%

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Fabless Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM)

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Figure 13. Sales for Top-‐30 MEMS Makers in 2012 ($ Mil.)

Source: Yole Développement – Status of the MEMS Industry, July 2013

Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director – Head Global Retail and Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre Global (FBIC Global) New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: +852 6119 1779 [email protected] Marie Driscoll, CFA [email protected] Christine Haggerty [email protected] John Harmon, CFA [email protected] Amy Hedrick [email protected] John Mercer [email protected] Lan Rosengard [email protected] Jing Wang [email protected]

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fbic global retail tech overview on mems feb. 5 …...title microsoft word - fbic global retail tech...

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