fbic global retail tech weekly insights july 31 global retail tech... · !4 july 31, 2015 fung...

12
1 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. Weekly Insights DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director, Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] New York: 646.839.7017 July 31, 2015 UK general merchandise retailer Argos claims to be the first British retailer to generate £1 billion in annual mcommerce sales Photo and video sharing platform Instagram will take in $2.81 billion from mobile advertising revenues, surpassing those of Google Brazilian ecommerce sales grew by 25.3% to an estimated US$14 billion in 2014 and could hit US$20 billion within five years Desigual plans to open 450 new stores in Latin America over the next two years, including five new stores and five storeinastores in Mexico this year

Upload: others

Post on 20-Jul-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

  1 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

                                             

 

 

 

 

   

 

Weekly Insights D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G

E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r , H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

July 31, 2015

UK  general  merchandise  retailer  Argos  claims  to  be  the  first  British  retailer  to  generate  £1  billion  in  annual  m-­‐commerce  sales  

Photo  and  video  sharing  platform  Instagram  will  take  in  $2.81  billion  from  mobile  advertising  revenues,  surpassing  those  of  Google  

Brazilian  e-­‐commerce  sales  grew  by  25.3%  to  an  estimated  US$14  billion  in  2014  and  could  hit  US$20  billion  within  five  years  

Desigual  plans  to  open  450  new  stores  in  Latin  America  over  the  next  two  years,  including  five  new  stores  and  five  store-­‐in-­‐a-­‐stores  in  Mexico  this  year  

Page 2: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

  2 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG  

Do  Pure  Plays  Need  Physical  Stores?  We’ve   seen   a   slew   of   Internet-­‐only   retailers  open  physical   shops   in   recent  years,  and   this  trend  seems  to  have  accelerated  recently.  The  move   into   brick   and   mortar   (B&M)   is  particularly   prominent   in   fashion,   as   top  names   from   Europe,   Asia   and   the   US   have  recently   opened   stores.   Bonobos,   Rent   the  Runway,  Zalando,  Missguided,  Simply  Be  and  Zalora   are   among   the   names   that   are   no  longer  pure  plays  in  the  purest  sense.  

Given   this   trend,   it’s   now   common   to   hear  about   “the   death   of   the   pure   play”—how  Internet-­‐only   retailers   will   be   compelled   to  open  physical  stores   in  order   to  compete  with  multichannel  competitors.  Some  commentators  argue  that  pure  plays  will  need  to  open  stores  in  the  same  way  that  stores  had  to  begin  selling  online.  

We  disagree,  and  we  point  to  three  counter-­‐indicators:  

• Many  of  the  retailers  that  have  pushed  into  B&M  have  done  so  with  only  a  limited  number  of  stores  or  with  short-­‐term  pop-­‐ups,  whose  contribution  to  the  top  line  is  likely  to  be  minimal  and  whose  functions  are  more  about  garnering  press  coverage  or  serving  other  marketing  purposes.  

• Big  names  such  as  Amazon  and  ASOS  have  been  holdouts  against  the  move  to  stores.  

• Not  all   ventures   into  physical   stores  prove   suitable.  British  baby  products  pure  play  Kiddicare   is   one  name   that   tried  B&M  and  decided   it  wasn’t   right   for   the  company.  After  pushing   into  B&M  with  10  stores,  Kiddicare  pulled  out  of  all  but  one  of  its  stores  to  once  again  focus  on  online  retailing.  

We  think  it’s  far  from  certain  that  B&M  shops  are  necessary  or  suitable  for  all  pure  plays,  and  that  it’s  too  simplistic  to  forecast  a  wave  of  mass  store  openings  by  pure  play  retailers.  

There  is,  however,  a  case  for  arguing  that  Internet-­‐only  retailers  lose  out  on  some  of  the  marketing  benefits  enjoyed  by   their   store-­‐based  counterparts.  We  see  physical   shops  as  a  means  by  which   Internet   retailers  can   build   value   in   their   brands.   In   turn,   this   brand   building   can   help   pure   plays   move   their   positioning  beyond  a  low-­‐price  focus.  

Moreover,  stores  offer  retailers  the  opportunity  to  reduce  shipping  costs  by  providing  a  lower-­‐cost,  in-­‐store  collection  option.  There’s  also  strong  evidence  that  multichannel  players  tend  to  see  lower  return  rates   in  apparel.  In-­‐store  shoppers  have  an  opportunity  to  try  on  products,  which  results  in  fewer  returns  due  to  ill  fit,  and  so   lowers  costs  borne  by  the  retailer.   (For  more,  see  our  new  Quick  Take,  Fit   for  Purpose?  Online  Fitting  Tech  and  the  Boom  in  Internet  Apparel.)  

A  major   caveat   here   is   that   online   retailers  would   need   a   very   substantial   network   of   stores   to   reach   a  majority  of  their  customers.  So,  a  convincing  push  into  B&M  could  prove  very  costly.  We  see  two  ways  of  gaining  the  benefits  of  stores  while  keeping  a  cap  on  investment:  

• For  collection,  we  think  third-­‐party  collection  locations  are  a  possible  solution.  Amazon  Lockers  are  an  established  format  here,  but  there  are  others,  too.  In  the  UK,  the  CollectPlus  network  allows  shoppers  to   pick   up   or   return   purchases   from   one   of   thousands   of   local   stores   such   as   newsagents   and  convenience   stores.   We   think   these   kinds   of   third-­‐party   collection   points   will   become   familiar  elsewhere.  

• Yet  picking  up  an  order  from  a  local  convenience  store  doesn’t  build  a  brand;  it’s  simply  a  functional,  if  convenient,   experience.   So   there’s   a   case   for   complementing   these   kinds   of   collection   services   with  glossy,  brand-­‐building  flagship  stores  in  big  cities.  

In  short,  we  think  there  are  benefits  to  operating  physical  stores,  but  given  the  costs/benefits  balance,  the  prospect  of  pure  plays  opening  networks  of  shops  is  far  from  an  inevitability.  

Page 3: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  3

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

 

             

 

             

 UK  Retail  Sales  Figure  1.  YoY  UK  Retail  Sales  Growth  

 Non-­‐seasonally  adjusted  Source:  Office  for  National  Statistics  

 • The  UK   grocery   price  war   continued   to   exert   downward   pressure   on   food   retailers’   sales   in  

June.  • Clothing  specialists  are  among  the  winners  from  rising  disposable  incomes,  as  lower  food  and  

automotive  fuel  prices  allow  shoppers  to  spend  more  on  discretionary  categories.  • Halfway  through  2015,  our  retail  forecasts  are  proving  accurate:  back  in  February,  we  forecast  

total  UK  retail  sales  growth  of  2.6%  for  2015.  So  far,  total  growth  has  averaged  2.5%.  And  in  our  Global  Grocery  Retailing   report,  we   forecast  a  decline  of  0.3%  for   the  UK  grocery  sector  this  year;  sector  growth  so  far  has  averaged  -­‐0.3%.  

FBIC  HAPPENINGS  &  WEINSWIG’S  WATCH  ING  

CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

 

• This  week,  the  FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  team  is  focused  on  the  Planalytics/FBIC  Back-­‐to-­‐School  and  2Q  Retail  webcast.  

•  

• UK  general  merchandise  retailer  Argos  claimed  to  be  the  first  British  retailer  to  generate  £1  billion  in  m-­‐commerce  sales  in  a  year.  

• Argos   said   it   reached   the   £1   billion   mark   for   the   year   ending  February,  and  that  its  number  of  sales  made  on  mobile  devices  grew  by  38%  year  over  year.  

£1  Bil.  

Source:  Retail-­‐Week.com  and  company  reports  

 

1.9  

-­‐0.4  

4.6  

(8)  

(6)  

(4)  

(2)  

0    

2    

4    

6    

8    

10    

Jan-­‐15   Feb-­‐15   Mar-­‐15   Apr-­‐15   May-­‐15   Jun-­‐15  

Percen

t  

All  Retail  Excl.  Fuel   Grocery  Retailers   Clothing  Specialists  

Page 4: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  4

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  VF  Beats  Q2  Estimates  as  Outdoor  Sports  Unit  Excels  (July  27)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  

• VF  beat   its  own  year-­‐ago  performance  and  analysts’  expectations  with  an  8.3%   increase   in  second-­‐quarter   profits.   VF   has   taken   a   proactive   stance   with   Wrangler   and   Lee   with   its  channels  of  distribution  in  the  US  and  globally.  Wrangler’s  business  is  up  4%,  and  is  strongest  in  the  Americas,  while  Lee’s  sales  have  declined  at  a  mid-­‐single-­‐digit  pace.  

• The  Outdoor  &  Action  Sports  coalition,  which  accounts  for  over  55%  of  VF’s  sales,  delivered  a  9.2%  advance  in  revenues,  to  $1.4  billion.  Net   income  rose  to  $170.8  million,  or  40  cents  a  diluted  share,  exceeding  analysts’  expectations  for  EPS  of  36  cents.  Revenue  rose  4.7%  in  the  quarter,  to  $2.51  billion,  from  $2.4  billion  in  the  same  quarter  in  2014.  

Instagram  Ad  Revenue  to  Top  Google’s  (July  27)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  

• eMarketer  projects  that  photo  and  video  sharing  platform  Instagram  will  take  in  $2.81  billion  from  mobile   advertising   revenues,  more   than   four   times   the   $595  million   the   company   is  expected  to  generate  this  year.  By  2017,  it’s  estimated  that  Instagram  will  make  up  14%  of  Facebook’s  overall  ad  sales,  nearly  triple  the  current  percentage.  

• Instagram   Cofounder   Kevin   Systrom   told   Women’s   Wear   Daily   that   fashion   and   retail  brands—including   Ralph   Lauren,   Victoria’s   Secret,   Banana   Republic,   Hollister,   and  Abercrombie  &  Fitch—accounted  for  about  a  third  of  the  network’s  advertising  revenue.  

David  Taylor  Named  President  and  CEO  of  P&G  (July  29)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  

• The   world’s   largest   household   products   company,   Procter   &   Gamble,   announced   on  Thursday  that  veteran  David  Taylor  will  replace  A.G.  Lafley  as  chief  executive.  

• Taylor   is  taking  the  position  at  a  time  when  the  company   is  undergoing  a  major  transition.  P&G   has   been   streamlining   its   business:   earlier   this   month,   it   sold   more   than   43   beauty  brands   to   perfume   maker   Coty   for   $12.5   billion   in   order   to   focus   on   its   faster-­‐growing  brands,   such   as   Tide   and  Gillette.   The   company   is   now  organized   into   four   industry-­‐based  sectors.  

Under  Armour’s  Game  Plan:  Faster  Retail  Expansion  (July  23)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  

• Investors   appear   optimistic   about   Under   Armour   in   the   wake   of   the   company’s   earnings  report.   Shares   were   up   7.3%,   even   though   net   income   fell   16.5%,   to   $14.8   million,   from  $17.7  million  in  the  same  period  a  year  ago.  CEO  Kevin  Plank  announced  that  the  company  plans   to  add  100  Brand  House  retail  units   to   its  store  portfolio   this  year;   three-­‐quarters  of  those  stores  will  be  in  Asia.  

• The  athletic  and  fitness  apparel  firm  reaped  considerable  exposure  from  its  association  with  PGA   golf   sensation   Jordan   Spieth   and  NBA   star   Stephen   Curry,  whose   one   sneaker  model  helped  lift  footwear  revenues  by  40.2%.  Under  Armour  has  also  developed  an  online  fitness  community,   Connected   Fitness,  which  has  more   than  140  million   athlete   participants.   The  company’s  new  organizational  structure,   focused  on  sport   rather   than  product  category,   is  expected  to  remain  a  strong  growth  factor.  

Back-­‐to-­‐School  Spending  Expected  to  Be  Flat  (July  27)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  

• Households   with   school-­‐age   children   (preschool   through   12th   grade)   plan   to   spend   an  average   of   $650   on   back-­‐to-­‐school   items,   $2   less   than   last   year   even   though   consumer  confidence  has  been   rising.  The   largest   increases  will  be   seen   in   specialty  apparel   retailers  (plus  21%)  and  department  stores  (plus  20%).  

Page 5: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  5

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

• 50%  of  consumers  said   they  had  bought  and  stockpiled  supplies   for   the   first  day  of   school  before   August,   up   15%   from   a   year   ago.   Parents   will   spend   the   most   on   apparel   and  footwear,  which  are  expected  to  account  for  approximately  one-­‐third  of  total  back-­‐to-­‐school  spending,  followed  by  electronics.    

ASIA  HEADLINES  Baidu  Issues  Disappointing  Q3  Forecast  as  It  Invests  Heavily  in  O2O  Services  (July  28)  TechCrunch  

• Baidu  is  focusing  aggressively  on  online-­‐to-­‐offline  (O2O)  sales,  one  of  the  hottest  forms  of  e-­‐commerce   in  China,  but   its  near-­‐term  earnings   growth   is   still   under  pressure.  As   investors  reacted  to  a  disappointing  third-­‐quarter  2015  forecast,  the  company’s  shares  dropped  about  9.5%  in  after-­‐hours  trading  before  recovering  slightly.  

• Baidu  disclosed  that  its  second-­‐quarter  selling,  general  and  administrative  expenses  rose  by  81%,  to  ¥2.7  billion  (US$437.5  million),  due  to  increased  promotional  spending  for  O2O.  Its  gross  merchandise  volume  for  O2O  services,  which  include  food  delivery  and  ticket  ordering,  was  ¥40.5  billion  (US$6.5  billion),  a  jump  of  109%  year  over  year.  

Cambly,  an  English-­‐Learning  App  Focused  on  Actual  Conversation,  Is  Spreading  Like  Wildfire  in  Asia  (July  28)  TechinAsia  

• Fire  up  Cambly  and  you’ll  see   just  one  big  red  button  that  says,  “Practice  English.”  Push   it,  and  you’ll  be  connected  via  video  chat  to  a  native  English  speaker.  Then,  you  talk.  There’s  no  curriculum,  no  tests  and  no  vocabulary—just  a  real  conversation  with  the  native  speaker  on  the  other  end  of  the  line.  

• Cambly  is  not  free.  Users  buy  time  on  the  app  to  connect  them  to  English  speakers,  who  are  paid  for  the  time  they  spend  chatting.  The  company  has  grown  by  a  factor  of  10  in  several  Asian  markets  over  the  past  year,  including  South  Korea,  Japan  and  China.  Cambly’s  business  in   South   Korea   has   grown   by   “almost   100   [times]   in   the   past   year,”   according   to   Sameer  Shariff,  one  of  the  app’s  founders.  

Weathernews  Partners  with  Moji,  Maker  of  China’s  Largest  Crowdsourced  Weather  App  (July  27)  TechCrunch  

• Weathernews,   one   of   Japan’s   biggest   weather   forecast   providers   and   the   owner   of   the  Sunnycomb  and  Weathermob  apps,  announced  that  it  had  signed  an  agreement  with  Moji,  the  maker  of  China’s  largest  social  weather  app,  to  share  data.  

• The  benefit  of  using  crowdsourced  apps  instead  of  services  like  Accuweather  or  the  Weather  Channel   is   that   you   see   real-­‐time   updates   about   the   weather   along   with   user   comments  about   how   it   makes   them   feel,   which   is   useful   for   sufferers   of   migraines,   allergies   and  seasonal  affective  disorder.  

South  Korea–Based  Smartphone  Producer  Sees  Potential  in  Indonesia  (July  27)  e27.co  

• A  South  Korean   tech  consortium   led  by  Optis  plans   to   join   the  smartphone  competition   in  Indonesia.  The   local   telecom   industry   is   currently  on   the  verge  of   transitioning   from  3G   to  4G/LTE,  and  is  seen  as  a  potential  gold  mine.  

• Optis  plans  to  work  with  Pantech,  which  has  had  difficulty  in  the  South  Korean  market.  “At  the   moment,   our   priority   is   to   dominate   the   smartphone   market   in   [Indonesia]   using  Pantech’s  technology,”  an  Optis  representative  said.  

   

Page 6: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  6

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 Samsung’s  Newest  Computer  Monitor  Can  Wirelessly  Charge  Your  Phone  (July  27)  ZDNet  

• Samsung   introduced   its   new   SE370   computer   display   in   two   sizes   on  Monday   (23.5"   and  27");  both  sizes   include  a  wireless  charging  port.  The  design   is   smart  because  the  charging  pad  is  built  into  the  base  of  the  monitor,  so  a  user  can  simply  place  a  mobile  device  on  the  monitor  stand  to  recharge  the  battery.  

• Samsung   chose   to   use   the   Qi   standard,   which   has   become   fairly   commonplace,   for   its  wireless  charging  monitor.  Samsung  phones  use  it,  as  do  devices  from  Nokia,  Motorola,  LG,  HTC  and  others.  The  Apple  Watch  also  works  with  Qi  charging  pads.  

Are  Digital  Wallets  the  Future  of  the  Asian  Economy?  (July  25)  e27.co  

• Banks  have  started  to  integrate  digital  payment  platforms  into  their  banking  services.  These  have   been   very   well   received   in   certain   Asian   countries,   most   notably   Singapore.  MasterPass,  a  global  digital  payment  platform  launched  by  MasterCard,  was  first  launched  in  Singapore  in  June  2014.  

• High  barriers  to  cross-­‐border  remittances  in  the  region  complicate  the  electronic  payments.  Discrepancies   in   legalities   and   currency   exchange   (especially   in   and   out   of   China)  make   it  difficult  to  regulate  electronic  payments  accurately  and  efficiently.  

KFit  to  Use  Newly  Raised  Funds  to  Focus  on  Its  Mobile  Strategy  (July  24)  e27.co  

• KFit  has  partnered  with  more  than  1,000  fitness  studios  and  gyms  across  Asia,  which  is  five  times   the   number   since   its   launch.   It   also   claims   to   have   generated   a   fourfold   increase   in  reservations.  In  the  month  of  July,  the  number  of  reservations  doubled,  the  company  said.  

• KFit   is  now   refocusing  all   its  efforts   (tech,  marketing,  etc.)  on  mobile.   The  KFit   app  will  be  available  on  both  iOS  and  Android  by  the  end  of  July.  

   

Page 7: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  7

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  EARNINGS

Company    

Revenues  ($  Mil.)   Change  Change  in  Reporting  

Currency  Gross  Margin  

(%)   Change  Net  Income  ($  Mil.)   Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015   2014   (%)   (%)   2015   2014   (BP)   2015   2014   (%)   2015   2014  

LVMH   1H  to  Jun.  30,  2015   18,662   19,205   (2.8)   19.3   64.8   65.5   (73.7)   1,764.9   2,068.7   (14.7)   N/A   N/A  

Kering*   1H  to  Jun.  30,  2015   6,157   6,457   (4.6)   17.0   61.7   63.7   (207.2)   503.8   776.2   (35.1)   N/A   N/A  

Luxottica 2Q  to  Jun.  30,  2015   2,717   2,825   (3.8)   19.3   69.5   66.7   283.2   325.9   324.9   0.3   N/A   N/A  

McColl’s 1H  to  May  31,  2015   700   737   (5.0)   3.4   24.0   24.0   (0.5)   8.9   (6.1)   (247.7)   1,333   1,291  *Net  income  is  from  continuing  operations.  Source:  Company  reports  

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  HEADLINES  Moulin  Family  Increases  Ownership  Stake  in  Carrefour  (July  23)  RetailDetail.eu  

• The   founding   family   of   French   retail   giant   Galeries   Lafayette   announced   that   it   currently  controls  more  than  10%  of  Carrefour’s  capital,  and  confirmed  that  it  may  increase  its  stake  in  the   future.  The   family  also  stated   in  a  press  conference  that   it  doesn’t   intend  to  take  over  control  of  Carrefour  in  the  future.  

• The  family  now  has  two  seats  on  the  board  of  Carrefour,  as  it  is  the  largest  shareholder.  The  great-­‐grandson   and   great-­‐granddaughter   of   Galeries   Lafayette’s   founder   have   taken   the  seats.  The  Moulin  family  has  a  controlling  stake  in  Galeries  Lafayette  as  well.  

Amazon  Opens  Multibillion-­‐Pound  Photo  Studio  in  London  (July  23)  TechCrunch.com  

• Amazon   has   opened   a   new   photography   studio   in   Shoreditch,   London.   It   spans   46,000  square  feet  and  has  22  photography  bays.  The  studio  is  the  largest  of  its  kind  in  Europe  and  the   company   stated   that   nearly   500,000   images   of   clothes   can   now   be   added   to   its   sites  every  year.  

• The  new  studio  will  add  35  jobs  and  75  more  during  peak  season.  The  VP  of  Amazon  Fashion  EU  said  that  the  company  aims  to  be  the  best  place  to  buy  fashion  online.  The  company  has  also  made  several  strategic  moves  to  increase  fashion  sales  online  and  in  Europe.  

John  Lewis  Sales  Were  up  by  6.9%  Last  Week  (July  25)  TheRetailBulletin.com  

• John   Lewis   saw   an   increase   of   6.9%   in   its   year-­‐over-­‐year   online   and   shop   sales   last  week.  Online   sales   rose   22.6%   thanks   to   availability   of   products   and   robust   trade   over   the  clearance   section.   Shop   sales   increased   by   0.7%   compared   to   last   year,   with   19   branches  showing  year-­‐over-­‐year  growth.  

• In   terms   of   product  mix,   fashion   sales   led   the   growth  with   a   10.5%   increase,   home   sales  grew  by  2%  and  electronics   sales   rose  by  9.4%.  As   the   company’s   sale   season   is   over,   the  director  of  retail  services  stated  that  the  focus  will  now  be  on  new  collections.  

UK  Consumer  Confidence  Index  Overtakes  Global  Average  (July  27)  ft.com  

• Nielsen,   a  market   research   company,   found   that   the  UK  Consumer  Confidence   Index   (CCI)  outstripped  the  global  average  for  the  first  time  in  nine  years.  The  last  time  the  CCI  surged  past  the  global  average  was  in  the  first  quarter  of  2006.  The  company  also  found  that  British  consumers  were  more   confident   than   their   German   counterparts   for   the   first   time   in   five  years.  

• Nielsen  noted  that  consumers  are  switching  grocery  brands  to  save  money   less  frequently,  which   could   be   a   good   sign   for   retailers.   Nielsen’s   managing   director   stated   that   wage  

Page 8: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  8

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

inflation   had   surged   past   price   inflation   for   the   first   time   in   several   years,   and   that  unemployment  had  been  declining.  

Media-­‐Saturn  Now  Has  1,000  Stores  in  Europe  (July  27)  RetailDetail.eu  

• The  Media-­‐Saturn   Group,   owner   of  Media  Markt   and   Saturn   stores   and   Europe’s   number  one   consumer   electronics   retailer,   has   opened   its   1,000th   outlet   in   Europe.   The   group  expressed  that  its  focus  will  be  on  a  fully  omnichannel  future.  

• Speaking  at  the  opening  of  the  1,000th  store,  CEO  Pieter  Haas  said  that  the  stores  will  have  digitized  points  of  sale   linking  them  to  online  branches.  As  part  of   the  digitization  process,  store   employees   will   receive   tablets,   free  Wi-­‐Fi   will   be   made   available   to   customers   and  online  kiosks  will  be  put  in  place  to  help  customers  who  seek  additional  information.  

Luxottica  Reports  25%  Increase  in  Profits  (July  27)  wsj.com  

• Eyewear   leader   Luxottica   reported   an   increase   of   25%   in   net   profits,   as   the   weak   euro  against   the  dollar   improved   the  company’s   sales   in   the  second  quarter.   Luxottica   reported  net   profit   of   €295   million   (US$326   million)   and   operating   profit   of   €500   million   (US$552  million).  Sales  grew  by  19.3%  compared  to  the  same  period  last  year,  with  a  distinct  increase  of  23.4%  in  the  retail  division.  

• The  group  also  stated  that  sales  in  North  America  grew  by  29%  at  current  rates  compared  to  the  same  period  last  year;  the  region  accounts  for  57%  of  total  sales.  European  sales  saw  an  increase  of  9%  and  sales  were  up  18%  at  current  rates  in  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region.  

Next  Reports  Sales  Increase  of  3.5%  (July  28)  bbc.co.uk  

• Next,  one  of  the  UK’s  biggest  clothing  retailers,  reported  a  sales   increase  of  3.5%  in  the  six  months  ending   July  25.  The  company   raised   the  midpoint  of   its   full-­‐year  profit   forecast  by  1.9%,  from  £810  million  (US$1,263  million)  to  £825  million  (US$1,287  million),  and  raised  its  full-­‐year  sales  growth  guidance  to  3.5%–6%  (it  was  previously  1.5%–5%).  

• Full-­‐price   sales   at   Next   stores  were   up   0.8%   and   its   online/catalog   sales  were   up   7.5%.   A  company   statement   said   that   the   increase   in   performance   at   the   end   of   the   season   was  mainly  due  to  warm  weather.  

Former  Tesco  Executive  to  Join  Morrisons  as  Group  Retail  Director  (July  28)  Retail-­‐Week.com  

• Gary   Mills,   a   former   Tesco   executive   who   was   in   charge   of   the   company’s   business   in  Northern   Ireland,   has   been   appointed   Group   Retail   Director   for   Morrisons.   He   replaces  Martyn  Fletcher,  who   is   the   fifth  director   to   leave  Morrisons   following  the  appointment  of  CEO  David  Potts  in  March.  

• Mills   has   30   years   of   experience   in   the   industry,   and   has   held   several   senior   positions   at  Tesco,  including  Retail  Director  for  Convenience  and  Retail  Director  for  Northern  Ireland.  He  will  begin  his  new  role  on  August  1.  

   

Page 9: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  9

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

LATAM  HEADLINES  Rising  Poverty  Rate  in  Mexico  Threatens  Retailers  (July  28)  Bloomberg  

• An  additional  2  million  Mexicans  have   fallen  below   the  poverty   line   in  Mexico   since  2012,  pushing  one  poverty  metric  to  a  14-­‐year  high.  

• Average   household   income   in  Mexico   declined   by   3.5%   in   real   terms   from   2012   through  2014,  and  the  government   is  considering  raising   the  minimum  wage,  which  has   fallen  70%  during  the  past  40  years  when  adjusted  for  inflation.  

• Moreover,   according   to   an   economist   at   the   Dallas   Federal   Reserve,   reverse  migration   to  Mexico   from   the  US   is   crowding   the  Mexican   labor  market,  which   is   reducing   remittances  from  the  US  to  relatives  in  Mexico.  

Brazilian  Retailer  Magazine  Luiza  Getting  a  Boost  from  E-­‐Commerce  (July  28)  InternetRetailer.com  

• E-­‐commerce  is  approaching  20%  of  sales  at  Brazilian  electronics  retailer  Magazine  Luiza.  

• Brazilian   Internet   research   firm   eBit   estimates   that   Brazilian   e-­‐commerce   sales   grew   by  25.3%,  to  an  estimated  R$35.9  billion  (US$14.0  billion),  in  2014  and  could  hit  R$67.1  billion  (US$20  billion)  within  five  years.  

• To   continue   to   grow   e-­‐commerce   sales,   Magazine   Luiza   is   leveraging   social   media.   For  example,   it   launched   a   program   on   Facebook   in   2013   that   enables   consumers   to   open   a  virtual  storefront  and  sell  products  they  recommend  to  friends  and  family.  

Brazil  Likely  to  Raise  Benchmark  Rate  Next  Week  (July  26)  The  Wall  Street  Journal  

• Brazil’s   central  bank   is   likely   to   raise   its  Selic  benchmark   interest   rate   to  at   least  14%  next  week  to  combat  rising  inflation.  

• Brazil’s   inflation  rate  recently  hit  9.25%,  more  than  twice  the  4.5%  target  rate  and  up  from  the  6.5%  rate  when  the  central  bank  began  raising  rates  in  April  2013.  

• A  central  bank  official  said  recently   in  a  speech  that  rising  unemployment  and  slow  growth  are   working   together   to   weaken   inflation   in   2016,   which   could   precede   a   new,   more  sustainable  period  of  growth.  

Starbucks  and  PepsiCo  Sign  Agreement  for  Marketing,  Sale  and  Distribution  of  Beverages  in  Latin  America  (July  23)  Company  press  release  

• Starbucks  and  PepsiCo  entered  into  an  agreement  for  the  marketing,  sale  and  distribution  of  several  Starbucks  ready-­‐to-­‐drink  coffee  and  energy  beverages.  

• The  Latin  American  ready-­‐to-­‐drink  beverage  category  is  estimated  to  be  worth  US$4  billion  and  is  expected  to  grow  by  22%  over  the  next  five  years.  

• Beverages   specified   in   the   agreement   include   Starbucks   Frappuccino   chilled   coffee   drinks,  Starbucks  Doubleshot  Espresso  and  Cream,  and  Starbucks  Refreshers  beverages.  

Desigual  Plans  to  Open  450  Stores  in  Latin  America  by  2017  (July  21)  WWD.com  

• Desigual  plans   to  open  450  new  stores   in   Latin  America  over   the  next   two  years,  many  of  them  in  Mexico.  

• This  year,   the  company  plans   to  open   five  new  stores  and   five  store-­‐in-­‐a-­‐stores   in  Mexico,  boosting  the  country’s  total  to  29  stand-­‐alone  stores  and  27  store-­‐in-­‐a-­‐stores.  

• The   remaining   total   will   include   of   45   stand-­‐alone   stores,   53   corners,   and   27   store-­‐in-­‐a-­‐stores,   and   the   company   will   own   about   80%   of   its   stores;   the   remaining   20%   will   be  franchised.  

Page 10: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  10

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

 

   

EARNINGS  CALENDAR    

      Sales  (Mil.)   EPS    

Company  

Earnings  Release  Period   Date  

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual   Currency  

L’Oréal   HY  15   Jul.  31   12,933   11,175   3.54   2.92   EUR  

Taubman  Centers   2Q  15   Jul.  31   128.7   170.0   0.72   0.80   USD  

Carrefour     HY  15   Jul.  31   38,639   35,870   0.37   0.38   EUR  General  Growth  Properties   2Q  15   Aug.  3   681.7   617.6   0.33   0.32   EUR  

Lifestyle  International   HY  15   Aug.  3   2,938   2,877   N/A   0.62   HKD  

CVS  Health   2Q  15   Aug.  4   37,173   34,602   1.20   1.06   USD  

Coach   4Q  15   Aug.  4   975   1,136   0.29   0.59   USD  

Priceline   2Q  15   Aug.  5   2,265   2,124   11.79   10.92   USD  

Ralph  Lauren   1Q  16   Aug.  5   1,612   1,708   1.00   1.84   USD  

Michael  Kors   1Q  16   Aug.  6   945.7   919.2   0.76   0.91   USD  

Overstock.com   2Q  15   Aug.  6   375.0   332.5   0.13   0.08   USD  

Unicharm   HY  15   Aug.  6   352.6   286.6   27.45   29.66   JPY  

Forest  City  Enterprises   2Q  15   Aug.  6   288.0   229.6   0.31   0.24   USD  

Westfield  Financial   2Q  15   Aug.  6   8.9   8.7   0.08   0.07   USD  

Global  Brands   HY  15   Aug.  11   1,440   1,349   N/A   (0.01)   USD  

Alibaba   1Q  16   Aug.  12   21,008   15,771   3.63   2.50   CNY  

Tencent   2Q  15   Aug.  12   24,040   19,746   0.81   0.64   CNY  

Page 11: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  11

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

     

EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)  FBIC  Presentation  

Black  Hat  USA  2015   Las  Vegas,  NV   August  1–6      

HKFYG  Global  Youth  Entrepreneurs  Forum   Hong  Kong   August  3    

NYC  Intimate  Apparel  Market  Week   New  York,  NY   August  3–7    

HKFYG  Global  Youth  Entrepreneurs  Forum   Shenzhen   August  4      

Planalytics  Back-­‐to-­‐School  Outlook  Webcast   Online   August  4  Deborah  Weinswig  

Fashion  Footwear  Association  of  New  York  New  York  Shoe  Show   New  York,  NY   August  4–6    ICSC  MOCIAL  +  Marketing  Advertising  &  Sponsorship  in  a  Digital  Age   San  Francisco,  CA   August  5–7    

Retail’s  Academic  Symposium   New  York,  NY   August  5–7    

Chicagoland  Retail  Connection   Rosemont,  IL   August  6    

Casual  Connect   San  Francisco,  CA   August  11–13    

Magic   Las  Vegas,  NV   August  17–19    

NACDS  Total  Store  Expo   Denver,  CO   August  22–25  Deborah  Weinswig  

CIO  Retail  Summit   Scottsdale,  AZ   August  23–25    

An  IcOnic  Evening  with  Dan  Rose  &  Oren  Zeev   San  Francisco,  CA   August  25    

ICSC  Florida  Conference   Orlando,  FL  August  30–September  1    

AmCham  2015  China  Conference:  Managing  the  “New  Normal”   Hong  Kong   September  1    

International  Retail  Design  Conference   Miami,  FL   September  3–5    

World  Retail  Congress   Rome,  Italy   September  8–10    Bank  of  America  Merrill  Lynch  Gaming  and  Lodging  Conference   New  York,  NY   September  9    Goldman  Sachs  22nd  Annual  Global  Retailing  Conference   New  York,  NY   September  9–10    

Connected  Health  Summit   San  Diego,  CA   September  9–10    

InterDrone:  The  International  Drone  Conference   Las  Vegas,  NV   September  9–11    

NRF  Retail  Leaders  Dinner   Dallas,  TX   September  10    

MOBX  2015   Berlin,  Germany   September  11    

RetailWeek  Tech  &  EComm  Conference   London,  England   September  15–16    

The  Retail  Conference  2015   London,  England   September  16    

Page 12: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights July 31 Global Retail Tech... · !4 July 31, 2015 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright

       

  12

July 31, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

   Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790  Hong  Kong:  +852  6119  1779  [email protected]      Sunny  Chan,  CFA  [email protected]    Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]    John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]    Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]    John  Mercer  [email protected]    Swarooprani  Muralidhar  [email protected]    Charlie  Poon  [email protected]    Kiril  Popov  [email protected]    Jing  Wang    [email protected]    Steven  Winnick  [email protected]