february market trends report

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Page 1: February Market Trends Report
Page 2: February Market Trends Report
Page 3: February Market Trends Report
Page 4: February Market Trends Report
Page 5: February Market Trends Report

The

Pre-Listing Package that seals the deal

before you get there

Page 6: February Market Trends Report

The 2 Major Mistakes

1. Bragging about Themselves

2. Bragging about Their Company

Page 7: February Market Trends Report

2014 will be the year that real estate marketing shifts to effectively and

consistently answering the one question every real estate pro gets asked:

How’s the market?

Nobu Hata NAR’s Director of Digital Engagement

Page 8: February Market Trends Report
Page 9: February Market Trends Report

KCM Divided into Three Sections

Page 10: February Market Trends Report
Page 11: February Market Trends Report

ta·perˈtāpər/Verb – to diminish or reduce

Page 12: February Market Trends Report

Michael Deery President, Citywide Financial Corp

This decision from the Fed is a trigger to get out there and look for a home while rates are low, as the Fed is still giving buyers the opportunity to

borrow money at a discount.

Page 13: February Market Trends Report

2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Federal Reserve 1/2014

Page 14: February Market Trends Report

Mortgage Rate Projections

Analyst Projected Rate 1Q 2015

Fannie Mae 5.1% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.3% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1%

Page 15: February Market Trends Report

Martin Ihrig Professor of Management, The Wharton School of Business

There is competitive advantage in knowledge, but very few decision makers know how to harness it…

You have to be strategic about it.

Page 16: February Market Trends Report

DateAverage

PriceInterest

RateP&I

December 2012 $230,600 3.35% $1,016.29

December2013 $246,800 4.46% $1,244.64

$228.35Difference in Monthly Payment

Monthly Annually Over 30 Years

$228.35 $2,740.20 $82,206

Page 17: February Market Trends Report

DateAverage

PriceInterest

RateP&I

January2014 $246,800 4.31% $1,222.79

January2015 $256,672 5.3% $1,425.31

$202.52Difference in Monthly Payment

Monthly Annually Over 30 Years

$202.52 $2,430.24 $72,907.20

Page 18: February Market Trends Report

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

% -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6%

-24%

-20.8%

-16.8%

-14%-13%

-7.6%

-5%-6.2%

1.8% 0.9%

5%

1.6%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

NAR 12/2013

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

Page 19: February Market Trends Report

% Reduction in Serious Delinquenciesfrom peak to now

NAR 12/2013

Page 20: February Market Trends Report

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 1/2014

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

Page 21: February Market Trends Report

1.77

1.90 1.93

2.15 2.15 2.162.24

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2013 Available Inventoryin millions

Page 22: February Market Trends Report

Move-UpSELLER

Page 23: February Market Trends Report

Paul Diggle Capital Economics

We are anticipating a meaningful increase in the supply of homes for sale. The survey evidence suggests that rising prices are motivating more owners to list their homes.

Page 24: February Market Trends Report

have a positive outlook on the economy this year

have a positive outlook on housing this year

said they are considering selling their home in 2014

71%

69%

63%

Consumer Views on Housing & Economy

Lending Tree Survey 2014

Page 25: February Market Trends Report

71% 78%90%

All Sellers Sellers Ages 30-39 Sellers Under 30

Percentage of Homeowners Considering Selling in 2014 by age group

FORSALE

Lending Tree Survey 2014

Page 26: February Market Trends Report
Page 27: February Market Trends Report

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84

in 1

,00

0s

AGEJoint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University

Average Annual Number of Recent Housing Occupants by Age

2010-2020

Page 28: February Market Trends Report

38.8%

40.5%

34.3%

2000 2005 2010

Homeownership Percentage Rate

John Burns Real Estate Consulting 1/2014

for 25-29 year olds by average year they turned 25

Page 29: February Market Trends Report

Alex Villacorta VP of research Clear Capital

Gen Y'ers were Y-bother? But they will start forming

families and become

Ynot’ers.

Page 30: February Market Trends Report
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Existing Home Sales

NAR 1/2014

Page 32: February Market Trends Report

100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

NAR 1/2014

Page 33: February Market Trends Report

S&P Case Shiller 1/2014

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

Page 34: February Market Trends Report

RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – January 2014

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

Page 35: February Market Trends Report

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 1/2014

Page 36: February Market Trends Report

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 1/2014

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

Page 37: February Market Trends Report

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%

14%

NAR 1/2014

Page 38: February Market Trends Report
Page 39: February Market Trends Report

10-10-20

Page 40: February Market Trends Report

SOLD

Page 41: February Market Trends Report

Marc Davison1000Watt Consulting

Frivolous content will sink in 2014 as the

gems of true insight continue to rise.

Page 42: February Market Trends Report

STOP with the

Cherry Pie Recipes

BRANDING

Page 43: February Market Trends Report

Denise MadanRE/MAX Advance Realty

South Miami, FL786.344.8004

[email protected]

Page 44: February Market Trends Report

ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link

5 Michael Deery Quotehttp://execed-news.wharton.upenn.edu/wharton-at-work/1401/top-trends-for-2014-1401.cfm?roie=1215&slx=wwork

6 2013 – 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

7 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf

8 Martin Ihrig Quotehttp://execed-news.wharton.upenn.edu/wharton-at-work/1401/top-trends-for-2014-1401.cfm?roie=1215&slx=wwork

9,10 Difference in Monthly Paymenthttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/ehs-01-23-glltlotp/ehs-12-2013-overview-2014-01-23.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html

11 Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels http://www.realtor.org

12 % Reduction in Serious Delinquencieshttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/01/16/depleting-shadow-inventory/#more-14615

13 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org

14 2013 Available Inventory http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/data

22 Move-Up Seller http://info.trulia.com/2014-housing-predictions

Page 45: February Market Trends Report

ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link

16 Paul Diggle Quotehttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/28/a-look-at-case-shiller-by-metro-area-28/?source=Patrick.net&mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_realestate

17,18Consumer Views on Housing Economy, Percentage of Homeowners Considering Selling in 2014

https://www.lendingtree.com/blog/lendingtree-survey-71-percent-of-homeowners-considering-sale-in-2014/

20Average Annual Number of Recent Housing Occupants by Age

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IyujYrP4Yv4/UuqZBchdsyI/AAAAAAAABA8/Yts60TGoi-k/s1600/013014_masnick_figure3.png

21 Homeownership Percentage Rate http://www.realestateconsulting.com/blog/chris-porter/subprime-generation

22 Alex Villacorta Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/28687-turning-20-somethings-into-home-buyers

24, 25 Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales www.realtor.org

26 Year-Over-Year Change in Prices http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

27 Return on Investmenthttp://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com

28 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

19Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

www.realtor.org

34 Marc Davison Quotehttp://www.housingwire.com/articles/26818-move-up-buying-activity-rises-with-home-equity-gains

Page 46: February Market Trends Report