february market trends report
TRANSCRIPT
The
Pre-Listing Package that seals the deal
before you get there
The 2 Major Mistakes
1. Bragging about Themselves
2. Bragging about Their Company
2014 will be the year that real estate marketing shifts to effectively and
consistently answering the one question every real estate pro gets asked:
How’s the market?
Nobu Hata NAR’s Director of Digital Engagement
KCM Divided into Three Sections
ta·perˈtāpər/Verb – to diminish or reduce
Michael Deery President, Citywide Financial Corp
This decision from the Fed is a trigger to get out there and look for a home while rates are low, as the Fed is still giving buyers the opportunity to
borrow money at a discount.
2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Federal Reserve 1/2014
Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate 1Q 2015
Fannie Mae 5.1% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.3% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1%
Martin Ihrig Professor of Management, The Wharton School of Business
There is competitive advantage in knowledge, but very few decision makers know how to harness it…
You have to be strategic about it.
DateAverage
PriceInterest
RateP&I
December 2012 $230,600 3.35% $1,016.29
December2013 $246,800 4.46% $1,244.64
$228.35Difference in Monthly Payment
Monthly Annually Over 30 Years
$228.35 $2,740.20 $82,206
DateAverage
PriceInterest
RateP&I
January2014 $246,800 4.31% $1,222.79
January2015 $256,672 5.3% $1,425.31
$202.52Difference in Monthly Payment
Monthly Annually Over 30 Years
$202.52 $2,430.24 $72,907.20
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
% -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6%
-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%-13%
-7.6%
-5%-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
NAR 12/2013
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
% Reduction in Serious Delinquenciesfrom peak to now
NAR 12/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
NAR 1/2014
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
1.77
1.90 1.93
2.15 2.15 2.162.24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2013 Available Inventoryin millions
Move-UpSELLER
Paul Diggle Capital Economics
We are anticipating a meaningful increase in the supply of homes for sale. The survey evidence suggests that rising prices are motivating more owners to list their homes.
have a positive outlook on the economy this year
have a positive outlook on housing this year
said they are considering selling their home in 2014
71%
69%
63%
Consumer Views on Housing & Economy
Lending Tree Survey 2014
71% 78%90%
All Sellers Sellers Ages 30-39 Sellers Under 30
Percentage of Homeowners Considering Selling in 2014 by age group
FORSALE
Lending Tree Survey 2014
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84
in 1
,00
0s
AGEJoint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University
Average Annual Number of Recent Housing Occupants by Age
2010-2020
38.8%
40.5%
34.3%
2000 2005 2010
Homeownership Percentage Rate
John Burns Real Estate Consulting 1/2014
for 25-29 year olds by average year they turned 25
Alex Villacorta VP of research Clear Capital
Gen Y'ers were Y-bother? But they will start forming
families and become
Ynot’ers.
Existing Home Sales
NAR 1/2014
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 1/2014
S&P Case Shiller 1/2014
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – January 2014
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 1/2014
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
NAR 1/2014
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
NAR 1/2014
10-10-20
SOLD
“
Marc Davison1000Watt Consulting
Frivolous content will sink in 2014 as the
gems of true insight continue to rise.
STOP with the
Cherry Pie Recipes
BRANDING
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
5 Michael Deery Quotehttp://execed-news.wharton.upenn.edu/wharton-at-work/1401/top-trends-for-2014-1401.cfm?roie=1215&slx=wwork
6 2013 – 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
7 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
8 Martin Ihrig Quotehttp://execed-news.wharton.upenn.edu/wharton-at-work/1401/top-trends-for-2014-1401.cfm?roie=1215&slx=wwork
9,10 Difference in Monthly Paymenthttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/ehs-01-23-glltlotp/ehs-12-2013-overview-2014-01-23.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
11 Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels http://www.realtor.org
12 % Reduction in Serious Delinquencieshttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/01/16/depleting-shadow-inventory/#more-14615
13 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
14 2013 Available Inventory http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/data
22 Move-Up Seller http://info.trulia.com/2014-housing-predictions
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
16 Paul Diggle Quotehttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/28/a-look-at-case-shiller-by-metro-area-28/?source=Patrick.net&mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_realestate
17,18Consumer Views on Housing Economy, Percentage of Homeowners Considering Selling in 2014
https://www.lendingtree.com/blog/lendingtree-survey-71-percent-of-homeowners-considering-sale-in-2014/
20Average Annual Number of Recent Housing Occupants by Age
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IyujYrP4Yv4/UuqZBchdsyI/AAAAAAAABA8/Yts60TGoi-k/s1600/013014_masnick_figure3.png
21 Homeownership Percentage Rate http://www.realestateconsulting.com/blog/chris-porter/subprime-generation
22 Alex Villacorta Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/28687-turning-20-somethings-into-home-buyers
24, 25 Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales www.realtor.org
26 Year-Over-Year Change in Prices http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
27 Return on Investmenthttp://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com
28 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
19Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
www.realtor.org
34 Marc Davison Quotehttp://www.housingwire.com/articles/26818-move-up-buying-activity-rises-with-home-equity-gains