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m.mffim-b>?- ftmrns ≪25# 1992*11/1

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The Relationship between Satellite-derivedCloud Parameters

and Measured Maximum Wind Speed in the Typhoon Genesis Stage

Yoshiyuki Abe, Yoshihisa Makino, Koetsu Chubachi and Tadayoshi Ueno

Abstract

The Tropical Cyclone Analysis Working Group in the Meteorological Satellite

Center is promoting a subject for the technological development on the typhoon

genesis judgement using GMS imagery since 1989 in cooperation with the RSMC

Tokyo-Typhoon Center.

The main purpose of this development is to establish the bases and method

which can suggest the possibility of typhoon genesis roughly within 24 hours before

using GMS infrared imagery.

Next themes were aimed in the investigation for the technological development.

(1) Using maximum wind speed near the tropical cyclone's depression center

measured on the aircraft in the period from 1982 to 1986 as objective corre-

spondence data.

(2) Parameterizing the 6 hourly characteristics of the cloud appearance and the

6 h variation trend in the organizing stage of a tropical cyclone as follows, and

investigating synthetically these parameter points.

a) Appearance of Cumulonimbus (Cb) in 9 regions centering the cloud

system center of a tropical cyclone that suggest the characteristic on deep

convection. (Named "Cb parameter")

9 regions are devided by three circles (their radii are 250km, 500km and

750km) and two lines (NW-SE and NE-SW line through the cloud system

center). Only the central region is circle, others are fan figure.

b) Appearance of curved cloud band (for only a typhoon developed in "Band

pattern") or dense cloud overcast (for only a typhoon developed in "DO

(1992^8^280^, 1992^9 ft 6 B^S)

-15-

METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE No. 25 NOVEMBER 1992

pattern") that suggest the characteristic on deep convection too. (Named

"Band/DO parameter")

c) Appearance of Cirrus (Ci) streak that suggest the characteristic on

divergence at the upper layer. (Named "Ci parameter")

The following 3 subjects were clarifiedthrough the investigation.

(1) Each parameter point was defined as adding the appearance point and the

6 h variation trend point ("Cb parameter" was calculated as regional

weighed average). Three parameter points were added to the "total point",

and the "total point" at once was supposed that it meight describe the

maximum wind speed at the time.

In this situation, correlation coefficientsbetween the "total points" and

the measured maximum winds were smaller than 0.4. But, correlation

coefficientbetween the "total point" averages within 24 h before and the

maximum winds was higher as 0.575 for "DO pattern". On the other hand,

the same operation had not good correlation for "Band pattern".

(2) As the next process, "Cb parameter" points were checked individuallyin

each region considering the time average and time lag against the measured

maximum wind. As a result, time averaged "Cb parameter" points in the

peculiar region depending on the cloud pattern had higher correlation

coefficientsbetween the maximum winds considering the time lag extend to

increase in wind speed.

Likewise, time averaged "Band/DO parameter" points and "Ci parame-

ter" points considering the time lag had higher correlation coefficients

between the maximum winds.

(3) Using 3 parameter points which were detected through the(2) process and

had higher correlation coefficients, for "Band pattern", the "total points"

by the product of next 3 parameter points including the Coriolis factor

a) Average of "Cb parameter" point (adding the appearance point and the

6 h variation trend point in the central region) at -06h, -12h, -18h and

-24h.

b) Average of "Band/DO parameter" point (adding the appearance point

and the 6 h variation trend point) at -24h and -30h.

c ) Average of "Ci parameter" point (adding the appearance point and the

6 h variation trend point) at OOh and -06h.

d) The Coriolis factor depending on the latitude of the Cloud System

Center.

-16-

%Mffim.-t>9- mmms 8 25-s 1992*11*3

had higher correlation coefficient (0.539 for all wind speed, and 0.418 for

wind speed less than 35 knots) between the maximum winds.

And for "DO pattern", the "total points" by the sum of next 3 parameter

points multiplying by the multiple regression coefficientsincluding a bias

a ) Average of "Cb parameter" point (adding the appearance point and the

6 h variation trend point in the western medium region) at -12h and -18

h multiplying by 0.7407.

b) Average of "Band/DO parameter" point (adding the appearance point

and the 6 h variation trend point) at OOh and -06h multiplying by 0.3726.

c ) Average of "Ci parameter" point (adding the appearance point and the

6 h variation trend point) at -06h and -12h multiplying by 0.1883.

d) 2.7071 as a bias.

had higher correlation coefficient(0.607 for all wind speed, and 0.777 for

wind speed less than 35 knots).

Using the relationship between the "total points" decided through (3) and

measured maximum winds, the bases and method for the typhoon genesis judgement

were expected basically.

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R.It 5. (21 - 11. 2

R. n. S. (31 - 10. 4

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EQ(1I If- -1. 60*0. 37X

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K. n. S. (II ･ 11.5

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R. M. S. (31 = 10.8

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

MAX WIND (KT)

1 2l$IHlBc£7'-* (≪≪5)

m mm m &±mmt(omm%R.

£ *(i) <35Kt(2) 2;35Kt(3)

24R$Ft8ftjc 8 0.126 -0.482 0.035

5 0.180 0.427 0.226

lillSI&ffl&fcft

1-0.163 -0.486 0.002

4 -0.006 -0.599 0.180

g0.160 -0.413 0.252

[ mttMHMam ]

-24h -18h -12h ―06h OOh

mm

ittbl it

tf

tf

2. 0tfc*^jSilft≪, ft^cilaict§vifl|*IS^-&-fK:, ^Tc*^HiSkCb^<7^~^5K'f >hfccffl08t;:

<fcSI§I≫ji[||T*4o*^2*c|fflv^j≫tt, *^Hi£cU#^fil*35yy hCK5£tt, 35/y h*j≪*J:

3. 0k*C*4(l)*fifLfcitt, ≪^HiicLSVifit*S!:^L*^-C^7'-^*Jtl(l!tfc≪^*^-ro ttz(2)

k(3)*f5j-tfcffltt,ZtiZftaSSv h^Mfc'J: 1/357 y hi^±c*^:JKic*i:,*HiS-r4 Cb^°7^-^^M

-26-

3D

25

20

15

ID

^ 5

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10

15

-20

-25

-30

$mmm-t>*- mm& *25* 1992*11*3

XXX i

* x

(

≪X X X^=

p

DATA NO. (II = 69*

DATA NO. (21 = 2Q

□*TA NO. (31 = 49

CDEFF. (II = 0. Q72

CDEFF. (21 ･ -0. 579

CDEFF. 13) = 0. J8S

ECim Y- 0. S6*0. 02X

EO (21 Y- 10. 12-0. 41X

ECH31 T- -2. 76+0. 09X

fl. M. S. Ill = 5. 2

ft. n. S. (21 = 4. 8

R, M. S. (31 = 5. 3

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

MAX WIND (KT)

30 100 110 120

SR≪f*1cl!i!l2l$IHKfli≫ (≪≪ 6)

hi ≪m i I

m±m&toftM&&

£ mi) < 35Kt(2) k35Kt(3)

4 -0.088 -0.508 0.175

6 0.110 -0.436 0.218

bu 6 RSRSKftft

6 -0.023 -0.447 -0.117

4 -0.093 -0.478 0.212

6 -0.160 -0.460 0.002

6 I$fl9flil0 2 -0.417 -0.216 -0.212

30

25

20

IS

ID

Q_

-5m

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

x x ;

x x

X ;

" X :

■*'*/ X MX;

H X

( X

X

OATA NO. tl 1 = 69

DATA NO. 12) ･ 20

DATA NO. (3) * 43

COEFF. Ml = 0.42B

CQEFF. (21 . Q. 28S

COEFF. (31 = 0. 42*

EOtll T- 7. 40-.0. 23X

E0C2I T- 4. 77*0. 39X

CO (3! T= 4. 67-tO. 28X

R. ≪. 5. (II = B. 2

R. M. 5. (2) =9.4

R. M. S. (31 ≫ 7.3

1020 30 40 50 60 70 BQ 90

MAX WIND (KT)

i 8i≫!uc£t-* mm i)

ioo no 120

jo am ≪ m±mmt<Dmm&$!i

& mi) < 35Kt(2) £35Kt(3)

4 ― 0.174 -0.414 0.024

18fl$RI]f!tj<D

4 0.024 -0.459 -0.006

6 0.428 -0.273 0.457

4 0.014 -0.444 0.029

4 0.097 -0.521 0.108

2 0.024 0.542 0.025

-27-

EO

55

50

40

t;35

i―i

Q_

2Sm

20

15

10

5

0


EQ

55

50

45

4Q

1-35

25CD

CJ

20

15

10

5

0

10 2030 40 5U 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

MAX WTND (KT)

SRSIffliiiNDiUMRSJWiSffi(Htt5)

& sm ≪ m±mmt<Dffim%R.

£ mi) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

5 0.438 0.154 0.288

m 4m%mm5 0.442 0.172 0.284

6≪ffflBdcm 2 mwwfe

5 0.479 0.082 0.325

6m?3m<Dm 3 mtwism

5 0.484 0.127 0.330

12R3lfflliBRmi2 m$wmm

5 0.456 -0.003 0.413

12H5lfflffi|0m 3 mm^m

5 0.460 0.164 0.394

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

MAX WIND !KT)

m a& ≪ **as£c≪≪≪≫

£ **(i) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

m 4mm^&m5 0.487 0.107 0.488

m 2 m＼＼i%R

6 -0.150 -0.456 -0.034

7 -0.078 -0.414 0.136

― 24h -18h -12h -06h OOh

ISM

-28-

01(3) mm:＼Rmnte£z,ffimmcb^9s~?tf'i>＼-tmxmM(Dmm (a>k^-≫

*l

ED

55

50

45

40

O30

25

Q_J

r.J

20

15

10

5

0

JO 20 3040

MAX

m.mRm-t>?- mmm% £25^ 1992*11/1

ED

55

50

45

40

S35

O30

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25m

20

15

ID

5

050 BO 70 80

WIND (KT)

90 100 110 120

12 B$pBiBucBij 2 Bsjiw^ffi mm i)

a. mm m **Ra£c≪≫≪≫

£ #(1) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

m 2mm＼i%m

4 -0.031 -0.407 0.219

I3RI§*!Icm 3mtw^m

4 -0.103 -0.432 0.162

m 4 fticwmm

1 0.292 0.423 0.300

4 -0.083 -0.479 0.133

6RSIfflliiJcm 3 m%wm&

1 0.297 0.429 0.266

6mmmem 4 mw%iR

1 0.359 0.515 0.345

m 2mw^m4

-0.122 -0.437 -0.005

]020 30 40 50 60 70 80 30 100 110 120

MAX WIND (KT)

i 2 n^p^HucDmj 3 mwrnfc mm i)

& a

IS tt m*mRt(DmM&RL

£ mi) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

m 4 Wf≫|sEteffi

2 0.405 0.392 0.395

BU 2 flS≫l＼&fi&

1 0.440 0.403 0.437

6 0.466 -0.015 0.422

m 3mw^m2 0.404 0.482 0.341

2 0.456 0.506 0.363

ffi 3 R#2l|＼£l{i

2 0.433 0.500 0.357

hi(4) mm＼&imnaz>^micb^7/~?tf'(>htm±m&<Dmm (do^-≫

r*5iP,*jn i±m＼itt)yM＼z

-29-

30

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20

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K X £ X X

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<X M

< X

X

/ X M iDATA NO. [11 = 69

sDATA NO. (21 = 20

DATA NO. 131 = 49

CDEFF. (II = 0.401

COEFF. 121 = 0. 581

COEFF. (31 = 0. 243

EQ (II 1- 7. 00+0. 28X

ED (2) T―II. 30*1. 13X

EQ(3) 1" II. 12+0. 19X

R. M. S. (1) - 10. 4

R. M. S. (21 - 13. 3

R. H. S. (31 = 8. 3

10 20 3CI 40 50 BO 70 80 90

MAX WIND (KT)

&mfflm<D*£7-fi

100 110 120

m mm±mmt<Dffim&R

£ ftd) < 35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

6 ttifflffiOm 6ftrnmtm

0.080 0.410 0.128

6 RtFtBi!c -0.139 0.492 -0.087

0.033 0.417 -0.010

do s*9 ~yt ttsa^s^*5M & * 01% '*>

^-Vhfe|nHtc^^T^^^^L^(Z)T% DO

30

25

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-15

-20

-25

30

-30-

K X XX

*

DATA NO. (II = 63

DATA NO. (21 = 20

DATA ND. (3) = 49

COEFF. (II = 0.562

CDEFF. (51 = D. 082

COEFF. (31 = 0. 350

EOm T- 0. 67*0. 39X

ED (21 Y- 4. 79*0. 12X

EO(3I T≪ B. 99*0. 27X

R. M. 5. (II = ]Q. 4

R. M. S. (2) * 9.6

fi.M. 5. (31 = 8.4

10 20 30 40 50 BO 70 80 90 100 110 120

MAX WIND (KT)

i smrsfficDtk?-'-*

BAND/DO '<7*-?b

rt?* ―?, BAND/DO;*?* ―? ,Ci'*7*

m&ffiM-tz>*- ftffims *25-§- 1992^ 11 ^

3D

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30

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DATA NO. (1) = 69

OATA ND. (21 - 20

DATA ND. (31 = 49

CDEFF. Hi = 0. 473

CDEFF. (21 = 0. 122

COEFF. (3) = 0. 153

EOdl T- 9. 49*0. 29X

ED (2) Y- ID. 39*0. 1SX

ED (31 T= 19.07*0. 11X

R. M. 5. (II = 9.4

R. M. S. (2) = 8. 2

R. M. S. (3) - 8. 0

10 20 30 40 SO 60 10 SO 90

MAX WIND (KT)

l zWIIDiWoifeT'-^

01(6) m!B＼£{b*$l!Mte £ Z

> K/N'^-y-co BAND/DO^n°7 /~7 t

Ci sty * -9 <D-$4> Y%m.m$%:^t£ h (D

-31-

100 110 120

m mm-xmmt<Dmm%&.

£ tt(l) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

m 2 temw-teim

0.506 0.206 0.245

m 3mwmR0.545 0.268 0.342

m 2mwmm0.560 0.228 0.387

20 3D 40 50 E.0 70 80 90 100 110 120

MAX WIND (KT)

-32-

m i(7) mmmmmm^<t§ band/do a? ^^mvf ts^a^otaw (do /■?*- ≫

BO

55

50

45

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80 90 100 110 120

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£ tt(l) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

fill4 mwm§.

0.522 0.436 0.249

6fltPa^HUc832 mWWfc0.424 0.498 0.185

6RSRBilifcm 3 mzwi%m0.545 0.418 0.302

6BSIfflftlcm 4 mwmfe0.581 0.425 0.394

JO

6Q

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50

45

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EO

5S

50

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10

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50 BO 70 80 90 100 1)0 120

WIND (K.T)

mtffi$t<Dm 3 mtwmm

m a**aas &c≪≫≪≫

£ ft(l) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

m 4 mzwmm0.4G7 0.188 0.155

6＼%mm<Dm 3 mwxim0.462 0.174 0.184

6 BSIIBiJcm 4 vznw&fe0.442 0.189 0.134

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 SO 90 100 110 120

HAX WIND (KT)

m mm-xmRt<Dfflm&M

£ mi) <35Kt(2) ^35Kt(3)

m 2 mmwrnm0.438 0.182 0.168

12i^^Bticm 3 mmw-%R

0.411 0.195 0.109

1111(8) mm:＼i*3mwimfc£6Ci^7*~?tf'i> htm^^Momm cdo^^-≫

-33-


m 3 s*ratomcmmmzmm.l^n^＼!i^^Kifflt5#*w>h^s^fiisc-ji

^-■-^ w7-y /<y ka*-> DOA*-y

≪.ffiH≪Rfcr-*ffl* fcn -an 2rt-

m&%WLt7i-?mwLKi >s. a*.

Rfete <35Kt wtjzm <35Kt

Cb^'^-^/tf-f y Y6 mmmoffi4 mm(-06,-12,-18,-24h)

cAPPT >2fcTRPT･30fflc＼i5

0.471

55f!

0.249

23fli2≪rWircW 2 &2DJ(-12,-18)<D APPT t TRPT

0.418

67il

0.512

20fi

(-12, -18h)cAPPT t TRPT

0.393

69fi

0.524

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BAND/DO /-?7* -9 dM V h s w≫scir 3 mm

(00,-06,-12h)cAPPTtTRPT<Dffl<D＼-t%

0.117

56fl

-0.169

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(00,-06, -12h)<D APPT t TRPT

0.431

69<!

0.494

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0.238

54{i

0.207

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(00,-06h)c APPT t TRPT

0.414

69<I

0.561

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C＼;<7 *-9tf4 y t- mwmnnm3 mn

(00,-06,-12h)CDAPPT t TRPT

0.234

56ii

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24fi(00, -06, -12h)cAPPT t TRPT

0.475

69fl

0.154

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(00,-06h)(D APPT t TRPT

0.278

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3. 3 **M£<*>MJ::B#M££#]*Lfc£

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m 4 mxmm t c m c mmm * #* t tz&&&£&c-k

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Cb'<7/-9tf4 >＼- 0.471 0.249

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(fFffif-^fflft) (55) (23) (55) (23) (55) (23) (54) (22) (54) (22)

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Ci iK'f y h 0.475 0.154 0.478 0.122

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sis, Pap. No. 234. Dept. Atoms. Sci.,

Colorado State University, Fort Collins.

1-121.

MmFr^mR, 1990: "fmmum (tuja^g)

Steranka, J., R.B.Rodgers and R.C.Gen-

try, 1986: The Relationship between

SatelliteMeasured Convective Bursts and

Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Mon.

Wea. Rev., 114, 1539-1546.

-43-

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