findings from the 2011 census options for the future - … · findings from the 2011 census &...

Mark FranshamSocial Research Officer

What’s the future for the Census?

Findings from the 2011 Census&

Options for the future

2011 Census headlines• Rapid population growth over the last decade

More children More students

More workers More international migrants

• Ethnic and international diversity has increased

• More households live in flats, and more rent their home

• More families with children, single adults and ‘other’households

• More people travel to work by cycling or walking than by car

• Rapid change has been concentrated in a few areas

What do we get from the Census?A wide range of topics:• Population & household counts, age & sex• Ethnic group, country of birth, year of arrival in UK,

language• Housing: tenure, overcrowding, type of dwelling, number

of rooms, household composition• Economic activity: industry, occupation, qualifications,

employment, economic inactivity, students• Health: disability, self-reported health, caring• Transport: car ownership, mode and place of travel to

work

All broken down into:• Age and sex• Detailed characteristics e.g. disability by ethnic group etc.• Small areas within the city – down to Output Areas (~400

in Oxford)

Far more information than we can possibly analyse!

“Usual residents” on 27 March 2011

How wrong are these numbers?

What has been counted?

How has it been counted?

Residents on a Census

form

Estimate of residents who were not on a

Census form +

2011 population estimate: 151,900 +/- 3,000 (2%)







• Fewer people travel to work by car

1911: 62,900

2011: 151,900

4,000 short-term international migrants (not included in ‘usually resident’population)

151,900 ‘usually resident’

population in 2011

12%16,400

133,200 household population living in 55,400 householdsaverage 2.4 people per household

18,700 people living in communal establishments(e.g. halls of residence)

7% / 3,700

34%4,700

since 2001

from 2.3

11% / 12,900

since 2001

-7%-600

39%2,600

Oxford population by age, 2011 Census compared to 2001 mid-year estimate (MYE)

under 5s

25-29 year-olds

32%4,100

over 75year-olds2011

Census2001 MYE

Growth in the student population

Very little change in the number of ‘all

student households’(an increase of 80 over the decade to

1,870)

4,700 more people living in communal establishments –

these will mostly be students in halls of

residence

5,800 more full-time students aged 18+ (30,000 in 2011)

Growth in birth rate means more young people in the next decade

9,50

0

7,70

0

6,40

0

4,00

0

9,80

0

8,80

0

8,00

0

4,20

0

9,40

0

8,80

0

8,80

0

5,10

0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 17age group

resi

dent

pop

ulat

ion

2013 2018 2023

2,300

3,900

1,500

2,200

4,000

-100

0

-300

-400

-500

Part-time employee

Full-time employee

Self-employed

Unemployed

FT student (econ act)

Retired

Student (econ inact)

Looking after home/family

Long-term sick/disabled

Other econ inact

The working age population has been increased by students and more people in the labour market

Change in the working age population by economic activity, 2001-2011

2001

2011

81%

72% 28%

19%

19%

Total population 134,200

Total population 151,900

Born in UK Born outside UK

Oxford population by country of birth, 2001 and 2011

Most common non-UK countries of birth:

1. Poland2. USA3. India

4. Germany5. Pakistan

Population growth driven by international migration

2,400100

18,8001,700

7002,000

1,6004,4004,800

1,8003,6004,2004,500

1,9007009001,100

Irish

Gypsy/Irish Traveller

Other White

Mixed White and Black Caribbean

Mixed White and Black African

Mixed White and Asian

Other Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Other Asian

Black African

Black Caribbean

Other Black

Arab

Other ethnic group

36% of the population is of non-White British ethnic origin, up from 23% in 2001

Non-white British ethnic groups, 2011

Decline in White British population

7,800

700

300

1,000

700

2,100

2,200

900

1,100

3,600

3,000

200

400

-6,400

-500

White British

Irish

Other White

Mixed White and Black Caribbean

Mixed White and Black African

Mixed White and Asian

Other Mixed

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Other Asian

Black African

Black Caribbean

Other Black

Population change by ethnic group, 2001-2011

More apartment livingHouseholds by housing type, 2001 and 2011

5,22

0

16,9

00

16,1

10

10,9

10

2,61

0

740

150

5,22

0

17,1

60

16,2

50

14,7

50

3,51

0

650

160

Detachedhouse

Semi-detached

house

Terracedhouse

Purpose-built flat

Flat inconv.House

Flat incomm'lbuilding

Caravan /other

2001 2011

More private renting

Households by housing tenure, 2001 and 2011

13,7

40

14,0

40

610

10,9

90

10,7

80

1,58

0

13,2

80

12,6

00

960

11,8

30

15,6

30

1,08

0

Ownedoutright

Owned witha mortgage

or loan

Sharedownership

Socialrented

Privaterented

Living rentfree

2001 2011

Growth in households has been driven by families with children, single adults and ‘other’ households

Household growth by household composition, 2001-2011

+40+590

+80

+820

+420+500

+740+560

+50+80

+2,100

-650 -1,370

-70

-240

Single adult working age

Single pensioner

All pensioner family

Married, no children

Cohabiting, no children

All student households

All pensioner households

Other households

Married, dependent children

Cohabiting, dependent children

Lone parent, dependent children

Other HHs with dep. children

Married, non-dependent children

Cohabiting, non-dep. children

Lone parent, non-dep. children

Other households

Households with dependent children

Households with non-dependent children

Households without children

{

{{

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• More people travel to work by cycling or walking than by car

Travelling to work by car has become less common, whilst more people cycle or walk, or work from home

Method of travel to work by Oxford residents in employment, 2001-2011

8%

18%

38%

30%

4%

11%

19%

32%34%

3%

Work mainly ator from home

Publictransport

Car driver Bicycle/on foot Car passenger

2001 2011

High growth areas

High growth areas• Not typical student areas• 25% growth (8% in rest of city)• 40% growth in young adults and children• Growth of people in employment• Rapid increase in ethnic and national diversity

– Decline in ‘White British’ population – growth in all other ethnic groups, especially ‘Other White’ and South Asian

– 43% of population non-White British– 30% of people born outside UK (17% in 2001)

• Number of households increased by 17%– Increase in single adults, families with children and

HMOs• Average household size up to 2.6 (2.4 in rest of city)• All household growth in private rented sector (27% private

rented, up from 14% in 2001)• Most people live in houses, but increase in dwellings has

mostly been flats

More information…Statistics About Oxford webpageswww.oxford.gov.uk/oxfordstats

Oxford profile leaflet

Small area profilesNomiswww.nomisweb.co.uk

Yet to come: origin-destination travel to work data, workplace zone statistics, migration statistics

What else would be useful to know from the Census?

findings from the 2011 census options for the future - … · findings from the 2011 census &...

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