Flexibility Mechanisms

A Consideration of Flexibility Mechanisms for Inclusion in the Gothenburg Protocol

Chris Dore

WHAT?New sources or EF revisions that have a significant impact would

be assessed, and “corrected” for.

OPTIONSFrozen Methodology Published GuidanceOn Application

IMPLEMENTATIONMay require a “Guidance Committee” or detailed review.

REPORTING & FORECASTINGMay require substantial increases to reporting, and even the

generation of two inventory versions (best science & compliance). Forecasting may become uncertain.

Mitigating Circumstances

WHAT?A fixed ceiling is accompanied by a flexibility range (like an

uncertainty), which can be revised according to new information.

OPTIONS

IMPLEMENTATIONEasy!

REPORTING & FORECASTINGOnly requires minor additions to the IIR. However, forecasting

compliance relies on timely revision of the flexibility range.

Split Ambition Targets

WHAT?Percentage reductions are used instead of fixed ceilings.

OPTIONSPercentage Reductions Kyoto Methodology

IMPLEMENTATIONStraightforward

REPORTING & FORECASTINGAccurate reporting of the base year becomes important.

Percentage Reductions

WHAT?Within a country, swap emissions between pollutants using pre-

defined exchange rates.

OPTIONSInternational or Country Specific Exchange Rates

IMPLEMENTATIONNot too complicated once exchange rates established

REPORTING & FORECASTINGBest science inventory with rather separate compliance

calculations.

Domestic Pollutant Swapping

WHAT?Emissions trading by another name.

OPTIONSLike-for-like pollutants or also include exchange rates

IMPLEMENTATIONRequires international management and infrastructure

REPORTING & FORECASTINGBest science inventory with rather separate compliance

calculations.

International Offsetting

WHAT?Allows a 3 year average to be reported, rather than a single year.

OPTIONSn-1, n, n+1, or n-2, n-1, n ?

IMPLEMENTATIONEasy!

REPORTING & FORECASTINGFairly straightforward, but might delay compliance assessment

by a year.

3-Year Average

WHAT?Compliance at a later date, but with a tougher target.

OPTIONS3 or 5 year delay

IMPLEMENTATIONRelatively easy

REPORTING & FORECASTINGPotentially delays compliance for some countries. Exact rules

could be established at the outset, so transparent for forecasting.

Delayed Compliance

Domestic Pollutant SwappingInternational Offsetting

Percentage ReductionsKyoto Methodology

3 Year AverageDelayed Compliance

Mitigating Circumstances by GuidanceMitigating Circumstances on Application

Frozen MethodologySplit Ambition Targets