fmcg baskets and retail trends - progressiveconference.progressive.bg/archive/2017/assets/pdf... ·...

1© GfK June 11, 2017

FMCG Baskets and Retail Trends

Maria Velyova, Senior Research Consultant, GfK Bulgaria

2© GfK June 11, 2017

Consumer Climate Basket Analysis Retail Trends

3© GfK June 11, 2017

Consumer Climate

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2.4

4.2

3.0

0.9

-1.4

-0.1-0.8

0.8

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

1.31.9

0.0

0.91.3

3.6 3.42.9 2.8

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Recovery of the Bulgarian Economy

Source: National Statistical Institute* European Commission Forecast

CPI % change (Basis: corresponding month y/y-1)

GDP % change

10.2 10.3 11.3 12.3 12.911.4

9.17.6 7.1 7.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Unemployment % - 15 or more years old

5© GfK June 11, 2017

Economic Expectations in BulgariaMarch 2017

Source: Consumer Climate, European Commission

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Economic Expectations in EuropeMarch 2017


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Consumer Income Expectations in BulgariaMarch 2017


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Consumer Income Expectations in EuropeMarch 2017


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FMCG Baskets

Analyses

14© GfK June 11, 2017

2.500Bulgarian

households

Age of the Headof the household

Region

Household Size

Type and Sizeof Settlement

A quantitative, continuous market research with standardized methodology. We know who buys what, where, when, how much and at what price.

Presence of childrenup to 16 y.o.

GfK Consumer Panel Methodology

15© GfK June 11, 2017

-1.9

-0.9

-0.1

0.5

2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3

3.13.5

4.24.5

4.13.7 3.5 3.4

2.62.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.83.1

2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9

1.1 1.3 1.4

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

MAT

Dec

201

3

MAT

Jan

201

4

MAT

Feb

201

4

MAT

Mar

201

4

MAT

Apr

201

4

MAT

May

201

4

MAT

Jun

201

4

MAT

Jul

201

4

MAT

Aug

201

4

MAT

Sep

201

4

MAT

Oct

201

4

MAT

Nov

201

4

MAT

Dec

201

4

MAT

Jan

201

5

MAT

Feb

201

5

MAT

Mar

201

5

MAT

Apr

201

5

MAT

May

201

5

MAT

Jun

201

5

MAT

Jul

201

5

MAT

Aug

201

5

MAT

Sep

201

5

MAT

Oct

201

5

MAT

Nov

201

5

MAT

Dec

201

5

MAT

Jan

201

6

MAT

Feb

201

6

MAT

Mar

201

6

MAT

Apr

201

6

MAT

May

201

6

MAT

Jun

201

6

MAT

Jul

201

6

MAT

Aug

201

6

MAT

Sep

201

6

MAT

Oct

201

6

MAT

Nov

201

6

MAT

Dec

201

6

Source: GfK Consumer Panel, based on Till roll

Household expenditures (YOY change in %)

Growing Households Expenditures for FMCG

16© GfK June 11, 2017

101 97

100.2 98

105 101

102 98

103 102

103 100

105 101

107 104

104 101

101 102

102 101

99.7 94

Market Basket Analysis FMCG in 2016

24

14

1412

10

6

6

53 2 11

Spending Share (%)Dairy

Meat

Cold Beverages

Sweets

Personal Care

Edible Fats

Home Care

Hot Beverages

Convenience

Pasta

Snacks

Frozen Foods

2016 vs 2015Index in Money

2016 vs 2015Index in Volume

Source: GfK Consumer Panel, based on Measured FMCG basket

17© GfK June 11, 2017

6.3%

3.1%

5.4%

4.3%

1.7%

3.6%

4.7%

3.8%

3.9%

-0.9%

1.5%

Growing Expenditure for all FMCG Categories except Frozen FoodsDairy

24%1.0%

0.2%

5.3%

1.8%

3.1%

2.6%

4.8%

7.1%

4.2%

0.7%

2.1%

Up Trading Change in Value 2016 vs 2015FMCG Baskets Value Share, 2016

Source: GfK Consumer Panel, based on measured FMCG basket

Meat

Cold Beverages

Sweets

Personal care

Edible Fats

Home Care

Hot Beverages

Pasta

14%

14%

12%

10%

6%

6%

5%Convenience

3%

2%Snacks1%

18© GfK June 11, 2017

A Continued Up Trading Trend


4.0%

-5.6%

0.9%

0.2%

1.5%

3.2%

-7.0%

4.5%

4.2%

1.8%

3.6%

6.2%

4.0%FMCG

Dairy Products

Meat Products

Cold Beverages

Sweets

Personal Care

Edible Fats

Home Care

Hot Beverages

Convenience

Pasta

Snacks

Frozen Foods

2014 vs 2013 2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

-1.7%

0.6%

-0.2%

4.2%

5.2%

1.0%

6.4%

1.5%

1.5%

3.4%

0.0%

3.7%

2.1%

7.3%

1.5%

-0.9%

3.9%

3.8%

4.7%

3.6%

1.7%

4.3%

5.4%

3.1%

6.3%

3.7%

19© GfK June 11, 2017

Price-Oriented Households

I often look at the 'Price Per Kilo / Litre' and not just the pack price

79 %

Source: GfK Consumer Panel

I work to a strict Budget when I'm buying groceries

75 %

I always Compare Prices between different brands before choosing

55 %

43 %

I consider that Price Is The Most Important Factor when buying a product

20© GfK June 11, 2017

…. And Quality Seeker

I read the ingredients on the pack before buying

54 %

Source: GfK Consumer Panel

I don't tend to compromise on quality if I can't find what I want

46 %

If my usual brand/size is not available then I would buy another size rather than change brands

34 %

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Continued trend – growing share of hypermarkets and supermarkets; Specialized shops – niche channels with growth potential

7 6 7 5 5 4 43 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 5 5 5 5 5 6

3532 29 29 27 26 25

22 2 1 2 3 2

11 1 1 1 1 1

36 7 8 8 8 6

14 15 17 18 19 1918

21 18 16 15 15 16 19

10 12 13 14 14 16 17

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Minimarkets

Discounters

Cash and Carry

Drugstores/Perfumeries

Small Grocery

Specialized shops

Street vendors/Open market

Others

Source: GfK Consumer Panel, based on Till Roll

23© GfK June 11, 2017

Developing modern trade and slightly dropping traditional trade

Small Grocery

25% Supermarkets

19% Minimarkets18%

Hypermarkets17%

Discounters

6%Cash and Carry

1%Specialized Shops6%

-2.1%

18.3%

-3.0%

6.8%

-15.9%

-2.3%

6.0%

Change in Value 2016 vs 2015Outlet Types Value Share, 2016

Source: GfK Consumer Panel, based on Tilll Roll

24© GfK June 11, 2017

PLs share continues to decline in 2016

11% 11% 11% 11%10%

9%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

10% in hypermarkets

5% in supermarkets

17% in cash&carry

78% in discounters

3% in minimarkets

Private Label Value Share (%)


25© GfK June 11, 2017

10% 9% 10%

17% 17%23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Promo is continued growing at high rateBetter recognized at Hypermarkets and Supermarkets

Share of value on promotion (%)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Prom

o Va

lue

Gro

wth

in %

(F

Y 20

16 v

s FY

201

5)Promo Share of Total Sales in % (FY 2016)

Supermarkets

Minimarkets

Hypermarkets

Discounters

25OFFSHOP NOW

-40-20

020406080

100

0 10203040506070

Promo in Value

26© GfK June 11, 2017

An increase in the number of trips where more than 50% of the value comes from products on promotion

Source: Consumer Panel Services

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Share of trips of Bargain Hunters (Promo >50%)

3 % 5 % 7 % 7 % 7 % 13 % 14 % 19 %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

15 % 18 % 23 % 18 % 18 % 36% 36% 50%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

24 % 23 % 23 % 17 % 13 % 24% 25% 26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Hypermarkets

Discounters

27© GfK June 11, 2017

The most important criterion for choosing a store for big shopping

Source: Consumer Panel Services

Distance from HHs

26% Variety of Products 23%

Promotion17%

Affordable Prices18%

vs 24% in 2014

Big shopping Every day shop

Distance from HHs

56% Variety of Products 11%

Promotion9%

Affordable Prices16%

vs 17% in 2014

28© GfK June 11, 2017

Key Findings and Recommendations

BG Consumer Climate is positive reflecting on increasing private consumer spending

Using of Promo is a chance to hold market shareGood coordination of the promotional activities could help you with market penetration as well as market share increasing

Hypermarkets and Supermarkets grew at a high rate due to promo activities attracting more bargain hunters

The average price growth is driven not only by increasing of the price of FMCG but also by growing the branded and better quality product consumption The ratio price-quality is the most important criterion for choosing the product

29© GfK June 11, 2017

For more information:

T: +359 2 930 86 21

GfK Bulgaria47A, Tsarigradsko shosse Blvd. 1124 Sofia, Bulgaria

Maria VelyovaSenior Research ConsultantConsumer Panel

[email protected]

GFK. GROWTH FROM KNOWLEDGE

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