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Codfish - Evolution Perspectives
FMCG FRAMEWORK IN PORTUGAL
Lisbon – 5 February 2018
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2Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Market Framework in Portugal
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What is the conjuncture in 2017?
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PIB Variation
Portugal keeps growing...
Fontes: Eurostat (*European Economic Forecast Autumn 2017); The World Bank; IMF
1,80%
2,30%
1,90%
2,30%
2014 2015 2016 2017*
0,90%
1,80%
1,50%
2,60%
2014 2015 2016 2017*
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12,4%12,1%12,4%
13,9%
14,8%14,9%15,7%
16,8%17,5%
16,4%
15,5%15,3%15,1%
13,9%13,1%
13,5%13,7%
11,9%11,9%12,2%12,4%
10,8%10,5%10,5%10,1%
8,8% 8,5%
1º T 2011
2º T 2011
3º T 2011
4º T 2011
1º T 2012
2º T 2012
3º T 2012
4º T 2012
1º T 2013
2º T 2012
3º T 2013
4º T 2013
1º T 2014
2º T 2014
3º T 2014
4º T 2014
1º T 2015
2º T 2015
3º T 2015
4º T 2015
1º T 2016
2º T 2016
3º T 2016
4º T 2016
1º T 2017
2º T 2017
3º T 2017
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate keeps decreasing
Fonte: INE
Minimum levels since 2010 – 8,5%
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92 89 88 8994 91 92 91 93 94 94 96 97 98 96 97 96 99 97 98 98 99 101 104 105
73 74 74 71 72 73 74 71 71 71 73 75 77 78 76 77 79 81 81 78 79 81 8185 87
World Europe
3942 40
3639 40 41
3833 33
44
51 53 53 5559 57
66 6671
6570
74
8285
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2 Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
2Q
17
3Q
17
Portugueses are more confident than ever!
Fonte: Nielsen Global Survey Consumer Confidence
Q3 2017
Only 2 points away from Europe average
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They have more money to spend
42% have good perspectives about their
personal finance(+31pp vs Q2 2013)
30% say this is a good time to buy anything
they want or need(+23 pp vs Q2 2013)
33% have a better financial situation than 5
years ago
24% say they have no money in the end of the
month(-19pp vs Q2 2013)
Fontes: Nielsen Global Survey Consumer Confidence (Q2 2017) | Nielsen Premiumization Report (Dezembro 2016)
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8Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
What are consumers looking for?
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More leisure
Sources: Nielsen Out of Home Report (Agosto 2016)
Nielsen Global Survey Consumer Confidence (Q2 2017) |
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Less time shopping
Click to edit text
Being “easy and quick”
is the 4th more
important atribute when
choosing a store
Convenient Location
Organized Layout
Small supermarket queues
Fonte: Nielsen Global Retail Growth Strategies Report (June 2016) | Nielsen ShopperTrends Portugal 2017
75% of portuguese purchases have, at least, 11 articles*
*Fonte: Nielsen Homescan (Ano Móvel S51/16) | Global Survey Growth Strategy (Q3 2015)
*Nº itens únicos – segmentação com base na dimensão da cesta, excluindo repetições. Ex: 10 garrafas de água idênticas = 1 item único
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Convenience is even more searched
Volume Sales Change in the last 2 years
Fonte: Nielsen | Market Track (TOTAL PORTUGAL INA+LIDL) – Ano Móvel S52//2017
* Fonte: TSR - Hipers+Supers – vendas em valor – Ano Móvel S38/2017
+21%
FROZEN CODFISH FROZEN FRUIT
+36% +6%
FROZEN
VEGETABLES
REFRIGERATED PASTA
+24%
+11%
4ª GAMA REFRIGERATED MEALS
+14% +22%
REFRIGERATED COMPONENTS TAKE AWAY*
+20%
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Healthy food increases
Volume Sales Change in the last 2 years
+200%
+7%+20%
BIOLOGICAL
YOGURTS
SOYA DRINKSINTEGRAL RICE
CHARCUTERIE
+19%
MUESLI AND
GRANOLA
+45%
SEEDS
+20%
+22%
DIET
COOKIESDIET BREAD
+29%
Fonte: Nielsen | Market Track (TOTAL PORTUGAL INA+LIDL) – Ano Móvel S52/2017
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Basics losing sales
Volume Sales Change in the last 2 years
Fonte: Nielsen | Market Track (TOTAL PORTUGAL INA+LIDL) – Ano Móvel S52/2017
-3%
DRY VEGETABLES
-10%
MILK OLIVE OIL
-7%
SUGAR
-8%
-5%
SALT BUTTER
-2%
PASTA
-3%-7%
RICE OILS
-1%
YOGURT
-1%
FLOUR
-8%
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Shoppers tend to be more conscious
DIVERSITY & INCLUSION
Origins, cultures, sexual orientations,
incapacities, religions
SUSTAINABILITY
Environment responsability and
sustainable attitudes
ORIGIN
Respect for the local economy and local
origin brings proximity
TRANSPARENCY
Marks must be genuine, consistent and
honest in their communication
Fontes: Nielsen Women & Diversity Report (Q3 2016) | Nielsen ShopperTrends 2017
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Proximity is very important!
PERISHABLE
PEDESTRIAN ACCESSStore location is very important
QUICK PURCHASEHaving an organized store is crucial
CUSTOMIZED SERVICE
HOME DELIVERY
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Do what consumers are looking for
QUALITY INOVATION
EXPERIENCE
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17Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
What about Retail Evolution?
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Significant market changes in the last years
RETAIL PRIVATE LABELS PROMOTIONS
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ice cream 3 384 3 298
chewing gum 268 979 259 850
individual cooks 423 383
chocolate tablets 109 92
snacks appetizer 198 203
potato snacks 796 776
wine 56 587 60 401
whisky 2 647 2 295
gin 230 227
beer 192 768 205 596
appetizer wines 56 020 60 397
In 2017, Wine, Water, Appetizer Wines and Beer revealed a good dynamic on Horeca
Fonte: Nielsen Markettrack week 52
Volume Sales
INCIM CATEGORIES
(000)
MAT Dez
2016
Alc
oho
lic
Be
ve
rag
es
No
n
Alc
oho
lic
Be
ve
rag
es
Fo
od
+4%
Growth of the mentioned
categories
7%
-13%
-2%
7%
8%
MAT Dez
2016 Var. %
roasted coffees 13 919 14 185
refreshing drinks 109 480 115 529
water 129 385 143 804
2%
6%
11%
Previsão de crescimento do On Trade acima dos anos anteriores
-3%
-3%
-9%
-15%
3%
-3%
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3 211 3 342 3 426 3 415 3 484 3 481 3 461 3 333 3 249 3 248 3 239 3 366 3 435 3 446 3 446 3 580
2 211 2 370 2 423 2 530 2 740 3 110 3 523 3 937 4 130 4 267 4 273 4 161 4 331 4 317 4 478 4 766
2 029 2 311 2 578 2 754 3 065 3 249 3 511 3 711 3 835 3 998 3 979 3 962 4 000 3 946 4 036 4 040
588 633 726 783 821 831 849 862 884 846 758 730 703 687 718 729
938 906 866 850 797 737 701 678 634 591 508 454 426 422 406 402
83 75 68 67 55 48 40 41 42 36 31 25 23 26 24 24
195 204 217 232 221 194 181 157 145 133 100 100 95 98 96 95
9 255 9 841 10 303 10 630 11 182 11 649 12 266 12 719 12 919 13 119 12 888 12 798 13 013 12 942 13 204 13 635
41%35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% 28% 26% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26% 27% 26% 26%
14% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 27% 29% 31% 32% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 34% 35%
13%
22% 23% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 31% 31% 30% 31% 30%8%
6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%
18%
10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%2%4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Drogarias
O.Alimentares
Mercearias
L.Serviços
Supers Pequenos
Supers Grandes
Hipers
MASS MARKET – Supers Grandes had better performance (maximum of 35%)
Fonte: Nielsen|Recenseamento
Global Volume Sales (millions €)
1995
Hipers 2 604
Supers Grandes 908
Supers Pequenos 858
L.Serviços 484
Mercearias 1 132
O.Alimentares 155
Drogarias 234
TOTAL 6 375
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34,0%
2011
37,0%
2012
36,4%
2013
MDDS won Market Share for the first time since 2012
Value Share – MDD + PP
It represents 1/3 of total sales
35,4%
2014
33,9%
2015
32,9%
2016
33,1%
2017
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21 22 21 2225
28
3741
44 45
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD2017
Promotions duplicated in 5 years
% Promotional Sales (Total Hiper + Supers)
Fonte: Nielsen | MarketTrack (H+S exclui LIDL) – YTD sem 44
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Manufacturers are at the base of promotions high level. 51% os its sales are due to promotions
Private Labels also increased promotions but in a lower level
35
4247
50 51
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 17
19
27 29 31 32
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 17
Source: Nielsen | MarketTrack (H+S w/o LIDL) – YTD w24/2017 (18 June)
MANUFACTURERS PRIVATE LABEL
FMCG - Hiper + Supers
% Value Sales - Promotions
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70
74
69
66
66
64
63
59
58
60
58
52
40
29
74
71
67
65
65
64
63
61
59
57
56
54
40
24
DETERGENTES ROUPA
PRODUTOS SOLARES
BACALHAU
CERVEJA CIDRA EPANACHES
CHAMPO
DETERGENTES MAQUINALOICA
OLEO COMESTIVEL
HIGIENE DO BEBE FRALDAS
IOGURTES
AZEITE
LEITE
VINHO QUALIDADE
DETERGENTES LOICA
BACALHAU CONGELADO
A.MOVEL -1 S 2016 52
A.MOVEL S 2017 52
Some categories had a great increase on sales because
of promotions
% Volume Promotions – Hiper + Supers
• Fonte: Nielsen | Market Track (TOTAL HIPERS + SUPERS)
2/3 of Codfish sales are during promotions
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2 790 2 792 2 908
2015 2016 2017
5 377 5 560 5 790
2015 2016 2017
8 225 8 412 8 768
2015 2016 2017 Manufacturers Labels
Valeue Sales ( Milhões €)Total Portugal + LIDL
FMCGs increased dynamically in 2017!
Private Labels and Manufacturers are increasing on the same way
Private Labels
Total FMCG
4%
4%4%
2%
3%0%
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Home Care
Every family grewDrink Market had a great dynamic
Food
Beverages
Personal Care
3%
8%
3%
3%
MDD+PPManufacturersVs A.M. S52 - 2017
∆% Value
3%
8%
4%
2%
3%
11%
1%
5%
2%
2016
Total FMCG
4%
Total Portugal + LIDL
ImportanceA.M. S52 - 2017
MDDs:
Inversion
tendency
2017
Source: Nielsen Market Track S52 2017
∆ Value Sales vs
Last Year
64%
17%
11%
8%
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27Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
What about Codfish’s Perfomance?
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13% 13%17%
21% 20%16% 16% 18% 21% 20%
87% 87%83%
79% 80%84% 84% 82% 79% 80%
4 424 040 4 005 017 3 766 206 3 665 641 4 361 913 26 207 826 24 566 726 26 665 040 27 238 889 33 949 772
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FROZEN CODFISH DRY CODFISH
Source : Nielsen |Cash and Carry
Total Cash and Carry – Total CodFish
2017 invert the negative tendency and reveal Value and Volume increases
Volume Sales (Kg) / Volume Change (%) Value Sales (€) / Value Change (%)
19%-3%-6%-9% 25%2%9%-6%
-10%
-6%
-6%
28%
-11%
19%
-7% 22%
9% 25%
5% 18%
-1% 16%
27%
•Frozen presents highest gains than Dry (20% of Market)
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7,30
8,77
5,93
7,92
FROZEN CODFISH DRY CODFISH
Source : Nielsen |Cash and Carry
Total Cash and Carry
After significant price increases between 2013 and 2015, Dry Codfish shows similar levels compared to Frozen
Average Price
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12% 13% 15% 15% 17% 17% 19% 20%
88% 87% 85% 85% 83% 83% 81% 80%
48 610 505 43 371 615 42 762 968 42 978 689 278 759 464 290 272 377 288 942 524 294 092 976
Ano 2014 Ano 2015 Ano 2016 Ano 2017 Ano 2014 Ano 2015 Ano 2016 Ano 2017
FROZEN CODFISH DRY CODFISH
Source : Nielsen |Markettrack
Total Food Stores – Total CodFish
Volume Sales (Kg) / Volume Change (%)
In Retail Food, Dry Codfish stablized and the Frozen Codfish sustains the growth, with 20% in value
Value Sales (€) / Value Change (%)
-11% -1% 1% 4% 0% 2%
-1%
-12%
5%
4%
10%
-3%
3%
0%
8%
-2%
7%
1%
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8,77
9,88
5,00
6,37
FROZEN CODFISH DRY CODFISH
Source : Nielsen |Markettrack
Price/Kg
Total Food Stores
Dry Codfish also had highest average price on Take
Home in the past 3 years
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32Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.