Forecasting

and of _______________________

» : use of _______/ mathematical modeling

» : _______!

Forecasting:

--based on historical records

Records should note: » ____ and __________; »meal or hour of service;» special event; » ________ conditions

Forecasting Models: Time

series

1. _________: use on the same menu item over time; take the average of __________

2. _______________: assign a greater weight to the most recent data

α = judgment factor between 0 and 1 (usually 0.3)

If α ~ 1, you will adjust substantially for error in the last forecast; if α ~ 0, the forecasts will be similar

New forecast = [α X last demand] +

[(1- α) X last forecast]

Forecasting Models:Causal

___________ analysis» plot data over time» find equation for a line that

minimizes the deviations of the independent variable(s)

» independent variable(s) = ____________________

» dependent variable = __________________

1. linear regression

2. multiple regression

Forecasting Models:

Subjective

_______________» use when data are

________ or patterns change ________ over time

1. Delphi technique

2. Panel consensus

3. Market research

4. Historical analogy

5. Visionary forecast

Criteria for Use of a Forecasting

Model

_____________» software, training

_________ _________ of past data» is there a clear relationship

between past and present needs?

pattern of behavior you need to chart

_________

Production Scheduling

Time ________________ to produce a meal

Assign responsibility for menu item production to appropriate units; distribute needed quantities of product

Worksheet indicates:

*actual ____, *________ count *over/under production,

*runout time; ___________ *weather, *comments

Production Scheduling

Consider ____________»vegetables

»grilled, deep fried, broiled items

Hold production meetings to discuss:

How much labor?

1 server can handle _____ tables

1 bartender can serve _____ patrons 1 chef can cook for a _____-

seat restaurant

Remember seasonal variation, school calendars, special events

These estimates might be all wrong for your operation!