forecasting models with excel

8/19/2019 Forecasting Models With Excel

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EXFINSIS

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Forecasting Models with Excel

© Diego Fernández García, 2015

All rights reserved.

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+his co$rse has an ed$cational and in(ormational p$rpose and doesn,t constit$te aninvestment advice. All concl$sions re-ect solely the instr$ctors opinions &ased on historiwith the possi&ility o( ($t$re o$tliers not previo$sly o&served within this time series. ag$arantee ($t$re ret$rns. Investment ris0 and $ncertainty can possi&ly lead to its toprod$cts and even larger (or leveraged ones.

+here(ore' the instr$ctor is not responsi&le (or any damages ca$sed &y $sing data'predictions' opinions or concl$sions (or investment decisions1 excl$sively trans(erring allst$dent. 2ecommending that the st$dent does own d$e3diligence &ased on several sce&e(ore ta0ing any investment or (orecasting decision.



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Forecasting )arameters

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;/?8/789 98;.>? <.@8 9.9?C 77.88 8.88



Mean Mean Mean

1st3/rend 1st3/rend 1st3!easonalitB

g one 1st *D-t 1st *D-t

)3;al"e oe8& )3;al"e oe8& )3;al"e oe8&

77.88 77.88 77.88

DNAE! <.=; DNAE! 8.88 DNAE! 8.88

DNAE! 8.88 DNAE! 8.88

DNAE! 38.89

DNAE! 8.88

DNAE! 8.88

DNAE! 8.88

DNAE!

Dic(eB3F"ller /est */rend

D-t n

8.=<C

39.@C 9.88

8.@7C 7.88

38.7>C ?.88

8.88C <.88

38.>>C .88

7.8C =.88

8.77C @.88

38.7;C >.88

38.;7C ;.88

39.8@C 98.88

39.7?C 99.88

39.?7C 97.88

9.<C 9?.88

7.97C 9<.88

7.=>C 9.88

8.9C 9=.88

9.@@C [email protected].?@C 9>.88

38.98C 9;.88

9.<C 78.88

8.=C 79.88

38.?<C 77.88

8.;C 7?.88

9.7;C 7<.88

38.@?C 7.88

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8.7;C [email protected]

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38.9@C 7;.88

8.>8C ?8.889.<8C ?9.88

9.<8C ?7.88

9.78C ??.88

38.9@C ?<.88

9.7;C ?.88

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9.<7C [email protected]

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9.><C ?;.88

38.>@C <8.88

9.9>C <9.88

38.8=C <7.88

3?.?8C <?.88

38.?>C <<.88

9.9?C <.88

38.?>C <=.88



38.<?C <@.88

37.7;C <>.88

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38.?8C 9.88

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7.<=C .887.;7C =.88

38.@>C @.88

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38.<@C =8.88

9.@C =9.88

38.8@C =7.88

39.7?C =?.88

39.;7C =<.88

38.;=C =.88

37.>=C ==.88

8.89C [email protected]

9.?;C =>.88?.@@C =;.88

8.99C @8.88

37.<;C @9.88

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8.9C 98>.888.<?C 98;.88

37.8;C 998.88

39.><C 999.88



9.@;C 997.88

38.=;C 99?.88

9.8;C 99<.88

9.==C 99.88

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38.@=C [email protected]

39.7=C 99>.88

9.8<C 99;.88

38.<9C 978.8837.=C 979.88

8.=;C 977.88

38.>8C 97?.88

7.8C 97<.88

39.C 97.88

38.9<C 97=.88

8.>=C [email protected]

9.=9C 97>.88

39.8=C 97;.88

38.??C 9?8.88

8.@=C 9?9.88

8.<?C 9?7.88

38.78C 9??.8838.<?C 9?<.88

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7.7=C 9?>.88

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38.8;C 9;.88

38.89C 9=8.88

9.87C 9=9.88

8.>@C 9=7.88

37.7?C 9=?.88

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38.78C 9=.88

39.9<C 9==.88


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38.==C [email protected]

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38.78C 9@@.88

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8.>=C 788.88

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39.88C 787.88

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8.77C 79<.88

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3.?<C [email protected]

9.?C 79>.88

38.8>C 79;.88

8.@8C 778.88

9.8?C 779.88

38.=C 777.88

39.7;C 77?.88

37.8@C 77<.88

3=.?9C 77.88

37.?C 77=.88

8.=8C [email protected]

.>C 77>.88

7.;8C 77;.88

8.??C 7?8.88

38.<@C 7?9.88

3<.@C 7?7.88

<.78C 7??.88

39.@@C 7?<.88

39.88C 7?.88

7.@<C 7?=.88

39.;<C [email protected]

7.9@C 7?>.889.<C 7?;.88

8.;=C 7<8.88

8.><C 7<9.88



8.99C 7<7.88

37.9=C 7<?.88

38.<9C 7<<.88

9.<C 7<.88

39.>C 7<=.88

8.>9C 7<@.88

8.;C 7<>.88

38.7C 7<;.88

37.88C 78.883?.8C 79.88

9.9?C 77.88



EXFINSIS ormal )artial #"tocorrelation F"nctions

www.exfnsis.com +ag #F )#F H$$er +ower I3!tat )3;al"e

4 5F6' 789 9 8.8? 8.87 8.97 38.97 8.79 8.=<

7 38.8= 38.8> 8.97 38.97 9.7? 8.<

#6%M# !)E%F%#/% ? 38.8 38.8< 8.97 38.97 9.>= 8.=8

< 38.99 38.99 8.97 38.97 .7 8.7=

38.89 8.89 8.97 38.97 .7; 8.?>

= 8.88 38.87 8.97 38.97 .?9 8.8

@ 8.8= 8.8= 8.97 38.97 =.<8 8.<;

> 8.87 8.88 8.97 38.97 =.9 8.;

; 8.8@ 8.8> 8.97 38.97 @.;8 8.<

98 8.87 8.87 8.97 38.97 >.8@ 8.=7

Dierence

Date n D-t

98/9/789< 9.88 39.@C

98/7/789< 7.88 8.@7C

98/?/789< ?.88 38.7>C

98/=/789< <.88 8.88C

98/@/789< .88 38.>>C

98/>/789< =.88 7.8C

98/;/789< @.88 8.77C

98/98/789< >.88 38.7;C

98/9?/789< ;.88 38.;7C

98/9</789< 98.88 39.8@C

98/9/789< 99.88 39.7?C

98/9=/789< 97.88 39.?7C

98/9@/789< 9?.88 9.<C

98/78/789< 9<.88 7.97C

98/79/789< 9.88 7.=>C

98/77/789< 9=.88 8.9C

98/7?/789< [email protected] 9.@@C

98/7</789< 9>.88 8.?@C

98/7@/789< 9;.88 38.98C

98/7>/789< 78.88 9.<C98/7;/789< 79.88 8.=C

98/?8/789< 77.88 38.?<C

98/?9/789< 7?.88 8.;C

99/?/789< 7<.88 9.7;C

99/</789< 7.88 38.@?C

99//789< 7=.88 8.7<C

99/=/789< [email protected] 8.7;C

99/@/789< 7>.88 8.7>C

99/98/789< 7;.88 38.9@C

99/99/789< ?8.88 8.>8C

99/97/789< ?9.88 9.<8C

99/9?/789< ?7.88 9.<8C

99/9</789< ??.88 9.78C99/9@/789< ?<.88 38.9@C

99/9>/789< ?.88 9.7;C

99/9;/789< ?=.88 38.@8C

99/78/789< [email protected] 9.<7C

99/79/789< ?>.88 8.9<C

99/7</789< ?;.88 9.><C

99/7/789< <8.88 38.>@C

99/7=/789< <9.88 9.9>C

99/7>/789< <7.88 38.8=C

97/9/789< <?.88 3?.?8C

97/7/789< <<.88 38.?>C

97/?/789< <.88 9.9?C

97/</789< <=.88 38.?>C

97//789< <@.88 38.<?C

97/>/789< <>.88 37.7;C

97/;/789< <;.88 9.7C



97/98/789< 8.88 39.;7C

97/99/789< 9.88 38.?8C

97/97/789< 7.88 39.@9C

97/9/789< ?.88 39.?>C

97/9=/789< <.88 39.?>C

97/9@/789< .88 7.<=C

97/9>/789< =.88 7.;7C

97/9;/789< @.88 38.@>C

97/77/789< >.88 9.8?C97/7?/789< ;.88 38.?C

97/7</789< =8.88 38.<@C

97/7=/789< =9.88 9.@C

97/7;/789< =7.88 38.8@C

97/?8/789< =?.88 39.7?C

97/?9/789< =<.88 39.;7C

9/7/789 =.88 38.;=C

9//789 ==.88 37.>=C

9/=/789 [email protected] 8.89C

9/@/789 =>.88 9.?;C

9/>/789 =;.88 ?.@@C

9/;/789 @8.88 8.99C

9/97/789 @9.88 37.<;C9/9?/789 @7.88 8.>>C

9/9</789 @?.88 38.?>C

9/9/789 @<.88 37.@C

9/9=/789 @.88 38.@>C

9/78/789 @=.88 7.<C

9/79/789 @@.88 8.@=C

9/77/789 @>.88 7.@C

9/7?/789 @;.88 8.9C

9/7=/789 >8.88 8.99C

9/7@/789 >9.88 3?.=C

9/7>/789 >7.88 .8C

9/7;/789 >?.88 ?.8@C

9/?8/789 ><.88 39.<@C

7/7/789 >.88 9.7C

7/?/789 >=.88 8.87C

7/</789 >@.88 8.@=C

7//789 >>.88 8.@9C

7/=/789 >;.88 38.>C

7/;/789 ;8.88 8.==C

7/98/789 ;9.88 9.;8C

7/99/789 ;7.88 7.?7C

7/97/789 ;?.88 9.7=C

7/9?/789 ;<.88 8.<;C

7/9@/789 ;.88 8.;C

7/9>/789 ;=.88 8.=;C

7/9;/789 ;@.88 38.79C

7/78/789 ;>.88 8.>9C

7/7?/789 ;;.88 7.=@C

7/7</789 988.88 38.=?C

7/7/789 989.88 37.;C

7/7=/789 987.88 9.7=C

7/7@/789 98?.88 39.9C

?/7/789 98<.88 8.<;C

?/?/789 98.88 8.79C

?/</789 98=.88 38.=<C

?//789 [email protected] 39.=@C

?/=/789 98>.88 8.9C

?/;/789 98;.88 8.<?C

?/98/789 998.88 37.8;C

?/99/789 999.88 39.><C?/97/789 997.88 9.@;C

?/9?/789 99?.88 38.=;C

?/9=/789 99<.88 9.8;C



?/9@/789 99.88 9.==C

?/9>/789 99=.88 9.97C

?/9;/789 [email protected] 38.@=C

?/78/789 99>.88 39.7=C

?/7?/789 99;.88 9.8<C

?/7</789 978.88 38.<9C

?/7/789 979.88 37.=C

?/7=/789 977.88 8.=;C

?/7@/789 97?.88 38.>8C?/?8/789 97<.88 7.8C

?/?9/789 97.88 39.C

</9/789 97=.88 38.9<C

</7/789 [email protected] 8.>=C

</=/789 97>.88 9.=9C

</@/789 97;.88 39.8=C

</>/789 9?8.88 38.??C

</;/789 9?9.88 8.@=C

</98/789 9?7.88 8.<?C

</9?/789 9??.88 38.78C

</9</789 9?<.88 38.<?C

</9/789 9?.88 8.?>C

</9=/789 9?=.88 38.<>C</9@/789 [email protected] 39.9?C

</78/789 9?>.88 7.7=C

</79/789 9?;.88 38.<C

</77/789 9<8.88 9.?<C

</7?/789 9<9.88 8.>9C

</7</789 9<7.88 8.<@C

</7@/789 9<?.88 9.>8C

</7>/789 9<<.88 39.;C

</7;/789 9<.88 39.<>C

</?8/789 9<=.88 37.@C

/9/789 9<@.88 7.;;C

/</789 9<>.88 38.9;C

//789 9<;.88 37.7>C

/=/789 98.88 38.=?C

/@/789 99.88 8.=7C

/>/789 97.88 9.>@C

/99/789 9?.88 39.87C

/97/789 9<.88 38.?=C

/9?/789 9.88 8.99C

/9</789 9=.88 7.?9C

/9/789 [email protected] 38.9<C

/9>/789 9>.88 9.98C

/9;/789 9;.88 38.8;C

/78/789 9=8.88 38.89C

/79/789 9=9.88 9.87C

/77/789 9=7.88 8.>@C

/7=/789 9=?.88 37.7?C

/7@/789 9=<.88 9.>C

/7>/789 9=.88 38.78C

/7;/789 9==.88 39.9<C

=/9/789 [email protected] 8.78C

=/7/789 9=>.88 38.<C

=/?/789 9=;.88 8.97C

=/</789 [email protected] 38.;C

=//789 [email protected] 38.C

=/>/789 [email protected] 38.==C

=/;/789 9@?.88 38.?8C

=/98/789 9@<.88 9.9<C

=/99/789 [email protected] 38.7?C

=/97/789 9@=.88 39.99C=/9/789 9@@.88 38.78C

=/9=/789 9@>.88 8.?C

=/9@/789 9@;.88 38.7<C



=/9>/789 9>8.88 8.<C

=/9;/789 9>9.88 39.89C

=/77/789 9>7.88 8.@;C

=/7?/789 9>?.88 38.<=C

=/7</789 9><.88 8.>C

=/7/789 9>.88 38.<>C

=/7=/789 9>=.88 38.;C

=/7;/789 9>@.88 39.@@C

=/?8/789 9>>.88 8.@7C@/9/789 9>;.88 8.;?C

@/7/789 9;8.88 38.9?C

@/=/789 9;9.88 38.?C

@/@/789 9;7.88 38.7C

@/>/789 9;?.88 37.9C

@/;/789 9;<.88 37.8=C

@/98/789 9;.88 7.=<C

@/9?/789 9;=.88 9.;9C

@/9</789 9;@.88 38.8<C

@/9/789 9;>.88 8.;=C

@/9=/789 9;;.88 9.?7C

@/9@/789 788.88 8.>=C

@/78/789 789.88 9.>@C@/79/789 787.88 39.88C

@/77/789 78?.88 3<.?7C

@/7?/789 78<.88 38.8C

@/7</789 78.88 38.?C

@/7@/789 78=.88 39.<8C

@/7>/789 [email protected] 8.8C

@/7;/789 78>.88 38.?7C

@/?8/789 78;.88 38.9C

@/?9/789 798.88 38.>>C

>/?/789 799.88 37.?;C

>/</789 797.88 3?.7=C

>//789 79?.88 8.==C

>/=/789 79<.88 8.77C

>/@/789 79.88 8.?<C

>/98/789 79=.88 ?.@C

>/99/789 [email protected] 3.?<C

>/97/789 79>.88 9.?C

>/9?/789 79;.88 38.8>C

>/9</789 778.88 8.@8C

>/9@/789 779.88 9.8?C

>/9>/789 777.88 38.=C

>/9;/789 77?.88 39.7;C

>/78/789 77<.88 37.8@C

>/79/789 77.88 3=.?9C

>/7</789 77=.88 37.?C

>/7/789 [email protected] 8.=8C

>/7=/789 77>.88 .>C

>/7@/789 77;.88 7.;8C

>/7>/789 7?8.88 8.??C

>/?9/789 7?9.88 38.<@C

;/9/789 7?7.88 3<.@C

;/7/789 7??.88 <.78C

;/?/789 7?<.88 39.@@C

;/</789 7?.88 39.88C

;/>/789 7?=.88 7.@<C

;/;/789 [email protected] 39.;<C

;/98/789 7?>.88 7.9@C

;/99/789 7?;.88 9.<C

;/9</789 7<8.88 8.;=C

;/9/789 7<9.88 8.><C;/9=/789 7<7.88 8.99C

;/9@/789 7<?.88 37.9=C

;/9>/789 7<<.88 38.<9C



;/79/789 7<.88 9.<C

;/77/789 7<=.88 39.>C

;/7?/789 7<@.88 8.>9C

;/7</789 7<>.88 8.;C

;/7/789 7<;.88 38.7C

;/7>/789 78.88 37.88C

;/7;/789 79.88 3?.8C

;/?8/789 77.88 9.9?C



orrelation Matrix

ag 8 9 7 ? < = @ > ; 98

8 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.99 38.89 8.88 8.8= 8.87 8.8@ 8.87

9 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.97 8.88 8.88 8.8= 8.87 8.8@

7 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.97 8.88 8.88 8.8= 8.87

? 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.97 8.88 8.88 8.8=

< 38.99 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.97 8.88 8.88

38.89 38.97 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.97 38.89

= 8.88 8.88 38.97 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8 38.97

@ 8.8= 8.88 8.88 38.97 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8= 38.8

> 8.87 8.8= 8.88 8.88 38.97 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8? 38.8=

; 8.8@ 8.87 8.8= 8.88 8.88 38.97 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88 8.8?

98 8.87 8.8@ 8.87 8.8= 8.88 38.89 38.97 38.8 38.8= 8.8? 9.88

%nerse orrelation Matrix

ag 8 9 7 ? < = @ > ; 98

8 9.8? 38.87 8.8> 8.8< 8.97 38.89 8.87 38.8= 8.88 38.8> 38.87

9 38.87 9.8? 38.8? 8.8> 8.8? 8.97 38.89 8.87 38.8= 8.89 38.8>

7 8.8> 38.8? 9.8? 38.8? 8.8> 8.8? 8.9? 38.89 8.87 38.8= 8.88

? 8.8< 8.8> 38.8? 9.8? 38.87 8.8> 8.8? 8.97 38.89 8.87 38.8=

< 8.97 8.8? 8.8> 38.87 9.8< 38.87 8.8; 8.8? 8.9? 38.89 8.87

38.89 8.97 8.8? 8.8> 38.87 9.8< 38.87 8.8> 8.8? 8.9? 38.89

= 8.87 38.89 8.9? 8.8? 8.8; 38.87 9.8< 38.87 8.8> 8.8? 8.97

@ 38.8= 8.87 38.89 8.97 8.8? 8.8> 38.87 9.8? 38.8? 8.8> 8.8?

> 8.88 38.8= 8.87 38.89 8.9? 8.8? 8.8> 38.8? 9.8? 38.8? 8.8>

; 38.8> 8.89 38.8= 8.87 38.89 8.9? 8.8? 8.8> 38.8? 9.8? 38.8?

98 38.87 38.8> 8.88 38.8= 8.87 38.89 8.97 8.8? 8.8> 38.8? 9.8?

)artial orrelation Matrix

ag 8 9 7 ? < = @ > ; 98

8 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8< 38.99 8.89 38.87 8.8= 8.88 8.8> 8.87

9 8.87 39.88 8.8? 38.8> 38.8? 38.97 8.89 38.87 8.8= 38.89 8.8>

7 38.8> 8.8? 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8? 38.97 8.89 38.87 8.8= 8.88

? 38.8< 38.8> 8.87 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8? 38.97 8.89 38.87 8.8=

< 38.99 38.8? 38.8> 8.87 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8? 38.97 8.89 38.89 8.89 38.97 38.8? 38.8> 8.87 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8? 38.97 8.89

= 38.87 8.89 38.97 38.8? 38.8> 8.87 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8? 38.97

@ 8.8= 38.87 8.89 38.97 38.8? 38.8> 8.87 39.88 8.8? 38.8> 38.8?

> 8.88 8.8= 38.87 8.89 38.97 38.8? 38.8> 8.8? 39.88 8.8? 38.8>

; 8.8> 38.89 8.8= 38.87 8.89 38.97 38.8? 38.8> 8.8? 39.88 8.8?

98 8.87 8.8> 8.88 8.8= 38.89 8.89 38.97 38.8? 38.8> 8.8? 39.88



9 7 ? < = @ > ; 98

39.88

38.>8

38.=8

38.<8

38.78

8.88

8.78

8.<8

8.=8

8.>8

9.88

9 7 ? < = @ > ; 98

39.88

38.>8

38.=8

38.<8

38.78

8.88

8.78

8.<8

8.=8

8.>8

9.88



A%F

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A%F

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EXFINSIS #6%M# MDE+!

www.exfnsis.com -t 9 : #6*n?-t3n: M#*n?et3n

4 5F6' 789 D-t 9 : #6*n?D-t3n: M#*n?et3n


B&servations

ean/%onstant

A2)9*

A)9*A)7*

SA)9*

Goodness o8 Fit

2G7

AdH$sted 2G7

Standard Error

!cale3de$endant Errors S$m o( S$ared Errors )SSE*

%n8ormation riteria

A0ai0e In(ormation %riterion )AI%*

%orrected A0ai0e In(ormation %riterion )AI%c*

ayesian In(ormation %riterion )I%*

+eel Dieren

Date -t D-t

;/9/789< ;;.8

;/9=/789< ;>.@< 38.@

;/9@/789< ;;.< 8.@8

;/9>/789< ;;.= 8.79

;/9;/789< ;>.>< 38.>9

;/77/789< ;>.;< 8.98

;/7?/789< 988.<> 9.

;/7</789< ;;.=9 38.>@

;/7/789< ;.>9 3?.>8

;/7=/789< ;>.=? 7.>7

;/7;/789< ;>.89 38.=?

;/?8/789< ;>.=? 8.=?

98/9/789< ;@.98 39.<

98/7/789< ;@.>8 8.@898/?/789< ;@.? 38.7@

98/=/789< ;@.? 8.88

98/@/789< ;=.=> 38.>

98/>/789< ;>.=> 7.89

98/;/789< ;>.;8 8.77

98/98/789< ;>.=9 38.7>

98/9?/789< ;@.@9 38.;8

98/9</789< ;=.=> 39.8<

98/9/789< ;.<; 39.9>

98/9=/789< ;<.7< 39.7

98/9@/789< ;.=7 9.?>

98/78/789< ;@.=@ 7.8

98/79/789< 988.?7 7.=98/77/789< 988.>? 8.9

98/7?/789< 987.=? 9.>8

98/7</789< 98?.89 8.?>

98/7@/789< 987.;8 38.99

98/7>/789< 98<.8 9.=8

98/7;/789< 98.8; 8.;

98/?8/789< 98<.@? 38.?

98/?9/789< 98.@? 9.88

99/?/789< [email protected] 9.?@

99/</789< 98=.?7 38.@>

99//789< 98=.@ 8.7

99/=/789< 98=.>> 8.?8

99/@/789< [email protected]> 8.?899/98/789< [email protected] 38.9>

99/99/789< 98@.>= 8.>=

99/97/789< 98;.?; 9.7



99/9?/789< 998.;? 9.<

99/9</789< 997.7@ 9.?<

99/9@/789< 997.8> 38.9;

99/9>/789< 99?.< 9.<=

99/9;/789< 997.@ 38.@;

99/78/789< 99<.?= 9.=9

99/79/789< 99<.7 8.9=

99/7</789< 99=.=< 7.97

99/7/789< 99.=? 39.8999/7=/789< [email protected] 9.?>

99/7>/789< 99=.;< 38.8@

97/9/789< 99?.9< 3?.>8

97/7/789< 997.@9 38.<?

97/?/789< 99?.;; 9.7>

97/</789< 99?.= 38.<?

97//789< 99?.8@ 38.<>

97/>/789< 998.7 37.=

97/;/789< 997.79 9.=;

97/98/789< 998.8@ 37.9?

97/99/789< 98;.@ 38.?7

97/97/789< 98@.>; 39.>=

97/9/789< 98=.<7 39.<@97/9=/789< 98<.;= 39.<=

97/9@/789< 98@.> 7.=7

97/9>/789< 998.@= ?.9;

97/9;/789< 98;.;9 38.>=

97/77/789< 999.8 9.9<

97/7?/789< 998.= 38.?;

97/7</789< 998.9? 38.7

97/7=/789< 997.8> 9.;

97/7;/789< 997.88 38.8>

97/?8/789< 998.=? 39.?@

97/?9/789< 98>.? 37.98

9/7/789 [email protected] 39.8?

9//789 98<.<@ 3?.8?

9/=/789 98<.<> 8.89

9/@/789 98.;< 9.<@

9/>/789 998.87 <.8@

9/;/789 998.9? 8.97

9/97/789 98@.<7 37.@9

9/9?/789 98>.?@ 8.;

9/9</789 98@.;= 38.<9

9/9/789 98.8? 37.;?

9/9=/789 98<.79 38.>7

9/78/789 98=.;8 7.=>

9/79/789 98@.@9 8.>7

9/77/789 998.7 7.>8

9/7?/789 999.8; 8.@

9/7=/789 999.79 8.97

9/7@/789 98@.?9 3?.>;

9/7>/789 99?.?> =.8@

9/7;/789 99=.;9 ?.?

9/?8/789 99.78 39.@9

7/7/789 99=.=< 9.<

7/?/789 99=.== 8.87

7/</789 99@.= 8.>;

7//789 99>.<8 8.><

7/=/789 99@.<8 39.88

7/;/789 99>.9> 8.@>

7/98/789 978.< 7.7@

7/99/789 97?.7@ 7.>7

7/97/789 97<.>? 9.=7/9?/789 97.<< 8.=9

7/9@/789 97=.9> 8.@<

7/9>/789 [email protected]= 8.>>



7/9;/789 97=.>8 38.7@

7/78/789 97@.>? 9.8<

7/7?/789 9?9.7; ?.<

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37.?8 37.9; 37.9@ 37.78 3?.8? 3<.89 3?.@>

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4 5F6' 789 9 8.87 8.89 8.97 38.97 8.8@

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@ 8.8 8.8 8.97 38.97 <.><

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orrelation Matrix

)3;al"e ag 8 9 7 ? < = @ >

8.@; 8 9.88 8.87 38.8@ 38.8< 38.98 8.88 8.88 8.8 8.89

8.? 9 8.87 9.88 8.87 38.8@ 38.8< 38.98 8.88 8.88 8.8

8.= 7 38.8@ 8.87 9.88 8.87 38.8@ 38.8< 38.98 8.88 8.88

8.?; ? 38.8< 38.8@ 8.87 9.88 8.87 38.8@ 38.8< 38.98 8.88

8.? < 38.98 38.8< 38.8@ 8.87 9.88 8.87 38.8@ 38.8< 38.98

8.== 8.88 38.98 38.8< 38.8@ 8.87 9.88 8.87 38.8@ 38.8<

8.=> = 8.88 8.88 38.98 38.8< 38.8@ 8.87 9.88 8.87 38.8@

8.@@ @ 8.8 8.88 8.88 38.98 38.8< 38.8@ 8.87 9.88 8.87

8.@9 > 8.89 8.8 8.88 8.88 38.98 38.8< 38.8@ 8.87 9.88

8.@> ; 8.8@ 8.89 8.8 8.88 8.88 38.98 38.8? 38.8@ 8.87

98 8.87 8.8@ 8.89 8.8 8.88 8.88 38.98 38.8? 38.8@

%nerse orrelation Matrix

ag 8 9 7 ? < = @ >

8 9.8? 38.89 8.8> 8.8? 8.98 38.89 8.87 38.8 8.88

9 38.89 9.8? 38.87 8.8> 8.8? 8.99 38.89 8.87 38.8

7 8.8> 38.87 9.8? 38.89 8.8; 8.8? 8.99 38.89 8.87

? 8.8? 8.8> 38.89 9.8? 38.89 8.8; 8.8? 8.99 38.89

< 8.98 8.8? 8.8; 38.89 9.8< 38.89 8.8; 8.8? 8.99

38.89 8.99 8.8? 8.8; 38.89 9.8< 38.89 8.8; 8.8?

= 8.87 38.89 8.99 8.8? 8.8; 38.89 9.8< 38.89 8.8;

@ 38.8 8.87 38.89 8.99 8.8? 8.8; 38.89 9.8? 38.87

> 8.88 38.8 8.87 38.89 8.99 8.8? 8.8; 38.87 9.8?

; 38.8> 8.89 38.8 8.87 38.89 8.99 8.87 8.8> 38.87

98 38.87 38.8> 8.88 38.8 8.87 38.89 8.99 8.8? 8.8>

)artial orrelation Matrix

ag 8 9 7 ? < = @ >

8 39.88 8.89 38.8> 38.8? 38.98 8.89 38.87 8.8 8.88

9 8.89 39.88 8.87 38.8> 38.8? 38.98 8.89 38.87 8.8

7 38.8> 8.87 39.88 8.89 38.8; 38.8? 38.99 8.89 38.87

? 38.8? 38.8> 8.89 39.88 8.89 38.8; 38.87 38.98 8.89

< 38.98 38.8? 38.8; 8.89 39.88 8.89 38.8; 38.87 38.99 8.89 38.98 38.8? 38.8; 8.89 39.88 8.89 38.8; 38.87

= 38.87 8.89 38.99 38.87 38.8; 8.89 39.88 8.89 38.8;

@ 8.8 38.87 8.89 38.98 38.87 38.8; 8.89 39.88 8.87

> 8.88 8.8 38.87 8.89 38.99 38.87 38.8; 8.87 39.88

; 8.8> 38.89 8.8 38.87 8.89 38.99 38.87 38.8> 8.87

98 8.87 8.8> 8.88 8.8 38.87 8.89 38.98 38.87 38.8>



; 98

8.8@ 8.87

8.89 8.8@

8.8 8.89

8.88 8.8

8.88 8.88

38.98 8.88

38.8? 38.98

38.8@ 38.8?

8.87 38.8@

9.88 8.87

8.87 9.88

; 98

38.8> 38.87

8.89 38.8>

38.8 8.88

8.87 38.8

38.89 8.87

8.99 38.89

8.87 8.99

8.8> 8.8?

38.87 8.8>

9.8? 38.89

38.89 9.8?

; 98

8.8> 8.87

38.89 8.8>

8.8 8.88

38.87 8.8

8.89 38.8738.99 8.89

38.87 38.98

38.8> 38.87

8.87 38.8>

39.88 8.89

8.89 39.88

9 7 ? < = @ > ; 9

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38.>8

38.=8

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38.78

8.88

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38.>8

38.=8

38.<8

38.78

8.88

8.78

8.<8

8.=8

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9.88



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ayesian In(ormation %riterion )I%*

#ct"al

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