fragile states pakistan group 3

Fragile States and Development Outcomes

Presentation

Prepared by:

Byungtae Park

Tangyin

Indra Niptama

Syed Hasan Bilal Gilani

Inayat Ullah

Nousahd Khan

Quick Facts of PakistanRemarks

Population 186mn

Unemployment rate 6.75%

Inflation rate 4.4 %

GDP Growth Rate 4.7%

Labor force 65m

Agriculture(GDP Share) 20.3 %

Industry (GDP Share) 20.9 %

Services (GDP Share) 58.8 %

Pop below poverty line 29.5%

Literacy rate 60%

Dominant religion Islam

• Service sector is

contributing higher

GDP which is 58.8%,

agriculture sector is

contributing 20.3%

share and industrial

sector contributes

20.9%.

450470

1400

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19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

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06

20

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20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)

WORLD WIDE GOVERNANCE INDICATORS: THE CASE OF

PAKISTAN

Pakistan is situated in southern part of Asia, in its north lies China the Central

Asian states and the Russian federation, to the west is Afghanistan and Iran

while to the east is India.

One of the diversified countries of the world in terms of its culture, landscape,

and climate.

GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

The country is located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia,China and the Middle East and is thus at the fulcrum of a regionalmarket with a vast population, large and diverse resources, anduntapped potential for trade(World Bank, 2016).

Proximity of great powers(China, Russia)

Gateway to central Asia- oil and energy game.

Significance as a transit economy.

Significance as an important link in the chain of Muslim countries.

Front line role in the war against terrorism.

Only Muslim country having Nuclear capability.

VULNERABILITY

The post-independence history of Pakistan has been characterized by

periods of military rule, political instability and conflicts with neighboring

India beside significant natural disasters e.g. Earthquakes, Floods etc.

The country continues to face challenging problems, including:

Terrorism.

Overpopulation .

Corruption.

Illiteracy.

Poverty.

VOICE & ACCOUNTABILITY:Year Score

1996 28.8

2014 27.1

Before the Military Coup in 1999, the country was witnessing a purely democratic rule where citizens had voice in Making public decision.

However, Political victimization started soon after the Coup which lasted for a decade during dictatorship (1999 to 2008).

Unfair use of law enforcing agencies against political parties’ workers and leaders.

Most of the public sector institutions were run by Military Officers.

Accountability of only pro democracy had been started.

There is an upward trend in indicator for Voice & accountability after the restoration of democracy in 2008.

Year Score

2007 20.2

2014 27.1

ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM:Year Score

1996 12.5

2014 3.4

Pakistan enjoyed a completely peaceful and stable political environment before 9/11 attacks in the US, however, US Invasion in Afghanistan against Taliban Regime proved to be a catalyst in developing an extreme narrative in the region.

The country is still bearing the brunt of that narrative in terms of Human, economic and social losses.

Infiltration of non-state actors due to 2,250 km border that Pakistan shares with Afghanistan.

Due to Pakistan’s front line role in the War on Terror, most of the terrorist declared war against Pakistan.

Pakistan suffered huge human and economic damages due to narrative which prevailed in the Buffer zone along Pak-afghan border.

Year Score

2007 0.07

2014 3.4

AGGREGATE FINANCIAL LOSSES DUE TERRORISM

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15*

Lo

ses (

$B

n)

CASUALTIES: CIVILIAN AND MILITARY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Civilian Secuirty Personnel

POLITICAL STABILITY

Year Score

1996 12.5

2014 3.4

Pakistan experienced a democratic period in the 90s however, the Military Coup of 1999 vanished all the political developments.

The elected Prime Minister was arrested followed by political victimization.

Political environment remain unstable during the struggle for democracy restoration.

The dictator tried to influence the judiciary which resulted into a historic movement for the restoration of Judiciary in 2007.

The dictatorship came to an end in 2008.

The indicator for Voice & accountability remained the same from 2007 to 2013.

First peaceful transfer of power from one elected government to another.

Year Score

2007 0.07

2014 3.4

GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS:

Year Score

1996 30.7

2014 22.1

Installation of Dummy(Local and National) Government in 2002 led to

weak implementation of Government Regulations.

Prolonged Split on the distribution of NFC Award among Provinces.

Due to the War on Terror and Conflicts in Baluchistan province, the

government could not show up.

Inefficient Government machinery for Disaster Preparedness and

Management.

Governments of different political parties in difference provinces and a

Federal Government weakened by Dictatorship.

REGULATORY SYSTEM

Year Score

1996 30.9

2014 27.9

The country’s crisis-ridden gas and electricity sectors.

Privatization was encouraged during the democratic governments(Except ZA Bhutto Era).

During the Military rule, Tax regime remained relatively weak.

The 2015/16 budget made several changes to the tax regime.

Corruption itself as an obstacle to effective regulation in the country.

RULE OF LAW:

Year Score

1996 28.7

2014 23.6

Dictatorship from 1999 to 2007.

Disruption of Judiciary two times during Military Dictatorship.

Favoritism & Nepotism.

Violence and terrorism started in Pakistan Massive insurgency in

two provinces which challenged the state legitimacy.

Year Score

2007 21.1

2014 23.6

CONTROL OF CORRUPTION:

Year Score

1996 8.8

2014 21.6

Establishment of National Accountability Bureau.

This is the only indicator which has shown increasing trend

from 1996.

Freedom of media which creates awareness in public

against corruption.

Media highlighted the major corruption scandals in the

country.

Corruption Perception Index 2015

World Happiness Report 2016

BENCHMARKING

PAKISTAN VS INDIA

INDIA

GDP Per Capita

GDP Growth % Remarks

Population 1.29Bn


Inflation rate 3%

Labor force 496million

Agriculture (GDP Share) 17.8%

Industry (GDP Share) 30.1%

Services (GDP Share) 52.1%

Pop below poverty

line21.9%

Literacy rate 74%

Dominant religion Hinduism

Quick facts

• Service sector is contributing higher GDP which is 52.1%, agriculture sector is contributing 17.1% share. In 2000, the share was 23 %. Where Industrial share is 31.1% , In 2000 It was 26%. Which shows that India is moving agrto Industrial sector.

• GDP has experienced growth over the past 3 years but showing decline in different years. The highest growth was in 2006 and 2010 with 9.3% and 10.3 %.

• GDP Per Capita$ has also experienced ups and downs but it is continuously growing from 2012 to 2014, from 1449$ in 2012 to 1581$ in 2014.

9.3 9.8

3.9

8.5

10.3

6.6

5.16.9

7.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

816

1050 10221124

13871471 1449 1455

1581

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GOVERNANCE INDICATORS

62.0%

57.2% 56.3%

50.2%

59.1%61.1% 60.1%

59.1% 59.1% 60.1% 60.2%60.7% 60.6%

58.8% 61.1%61.1%

19.2%

13.9%17.8% 15.9%

8.7%

13.5%17.8%

17.3% 13.9% 14.4%10.9% 12.3% 11.3% 11.8% 12.8% 13.6%

53.7% 54.1%51.2% 51.7%

55.1% 55.1% 55.1% 54.1%56.8%

54.4%56.0% 56.5% 55.0%

47.4% 47.4%45.2%

32.4% 32.8%

42.6% 40.2% 40.7% 39.2% 46.6%45.6%

44.2% 40.8%42.6% 39.2% 39.8%

34.0% 34.4% 34.6%

59.3%

60.3% 59.8%

51.2% 55.0%54.1% 57.9% 56.9%

56.0%56.3% 55.0% 54.5% 52.1% 52.6% 52.6% 54.3%

40.0%43.9% 46.3%

38.0% 42.9%43.4% 43.4% 45.9%

40.8% 43.7%

30.0% 36.2%33.2% 34.9% 35.4% 36.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India

Voice & Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terroism

Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law Control of Corruption

28.8%30.8%

11.1% 14.4%

13.0% 14.9%16.8%

24.0%

20.2%23.1%

22.3% 26.1%

24.9%

22.7%

24.6% 27.1%

12.5% 13.5%14.4%

5.8% 7.7% 6.7% 5.3%2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9%

3.4%

30.7% 36.1%

31.2%

41.5% 40.5% 39.5% 40.0%42.0%

39.3%

28.6%24.4%

24.9%21.3%

23.9% 23.4% 22.1%

30.9%27.9%

21.1% 21.1% 23.0%

18.1%

26.5%

35.3% 32.0% 32.0% 33.0%30.6%

28.9%24.9%

24.9% 27.9%

28.7%24.9%

19.6%

28.2% 28.2%20.6%

21.5% 23.4%21.1%

19.2%21.3%

27.5%

20.2% 19.0%21.3%

23.6%

8.8%

15.6%

22.4% 22.0%

27.3%

12.7%13.7%

23.4%24.8%

21.8%

14.4% 13.3% 14.2% 13.9%17.7% 21.6%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pakistan

Voice & Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism

Government Effectivness Regulatory Quality


12.5%

13.5%

14.4%

5.8%

7.7%

6.7%

5.3%

2.4%

0.1% 0.0%

1.4%

0.5% 0.5%0.9% 0.9%

3.4%

19.2%

13.9%

17.8%

15.9%

8.7%

13.5%

17.8%17.3%

13.9%14.4%

10.9%

12.3%

11.3%11.8%

12.8%

13.6%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India vs Pakistan: Political Stability and Absences of Violence

Pakistan India

GNI PER CAPITA, LIFE EXPECTANCY

450470

1400

350450

1570

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Pakistan India

63

68

61.262.5

66.2

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Life Expectancy

India Pakistan

EXTREME POVERTY PAKISTAN VS INDIA

BENCHMARKING

PAKISTAN VS CHINA

QUICK FACTS CHINA

Population 1,364 Billion


Inflation rate 1,8%

Labor force 806 million

Agriculture (GDP Share) 9.2%

Industry (GDP Share) 42,7%

Services (GDP Share) 48.1%

Pop below poverty line 6.1%

Literacy rate 96.4%

Dominant religion Buddhism0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

China GDP

• Industrial sector in Chinacontribute 42.7%, the highestGDP contribution come from Service sector which is reach 48.1% share while agriculture contribute 9.2%. In 2000 agriculture share 2.3% while industrial share was 45,4%. There is no significant change in Industry but high change in agriculture sector

• China GDP growth has reached the top in 2007 with 14.2% but continue to drop gradually until 2014 with 7.3%. This condition affected by financial crisis in 2008.

• China GDP Per Capita shows the consistency to grow up from 2006 to 2014, which started from $2082 in 2006 to $7590 in 2014. this condition placed China on upper middle income country.

RemarksGDP growth rate %

0

5

10

15

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

GOVERNANCE INDICATORS

12.0% 10.6% 11.5%

6.3%7.2%

7.2% 7.7% 6.3% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2%5.2% 5.6% 4.7% 5.2% 5.4%

41.3%

30.3% 35.1% 32.2%27.9%

32.2% 31.3%28.4% 28.4% 29.7% 30.8%

25.0%27.8% 28.4% 27.0%

29.6%

46.8%53.2% 53.7% 55.1%

57.1% 59.0%

53.2%57.1%

59.7% 59.2% 58.4% 57.9% 59.2%56.0% 54.5%

66.3%

47.5%

37.3% 36.3%33.3%

42.6%44.6%

50.5%48.5%

51.0% 51.5%

45.9% 44.5% 44.1% 43.5% 43.5% 45.2%

36.4%

38.8%35.9% 39.2%

40.2% 38.8% 37.8%37.3%

41.1%45.2%

45.5% 45.5% 43.7%

38.9% 39.8% 42.8%

43.9% 45.9%50.7%

33.7%

43.4%

34.6%

31.7%

37.1%

33.5% 35.4% 34.9%32.4%

35.1% 38.8%

46.9%47.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

China

28.8%30.8%

11.1% 14.4%13.0% 14.9%

16.8%

24.0%

20.2%23.1% 22.3% 26.1%

24.9%

22.7%

24.6% 27.1%

12.5% 13.5%14.4%

5.8% 7.7% 6.7% 5.3%2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9%

3.4%

30.7% 36.1%

31.2%

41.5% 40.5% 39.5% 40.0%42.0%

39.3%

28.6%24.4%

24.9%21.3%

23.9% 23.4% 22.1%

30.9%27.9%

21.1% 21.1%23.0%

18.1%

26.5%

35.3% 32.0% 32.0% 33.0%30.6%

28.9%24.9%

24.9% 27.9%

28.7% 24.9%

19.6%

28.2% 28.2%20.6%

21.5% 23.4% 21.1%

19.2%21.3%

27.5%

20.2% 19.0%21.3%

23.6%

8.8%

15.6%

22.4% 22.0%

27.3%

12.7%13.7%

23.4%24.8%

21.8%

14.4% 13.3% 14.2% 13.9%17.7%

21.6%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pakistan

Voice & Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism

Government Effectivness Regulatory Quality


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

China vs Pakistan: Voice & Accountability

Pakistan China

GNI PER CAPITA, LIFE EXPECTANCY & POVERTY

20502490

30703650

4300

5000

5870

6710

7400

820 910 1020 1060 1080 1150 1260 1360 1400

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


China Pakistan

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Life Expectancy

Pakistan China

EXTREME POVERTY, PAKISTAN VS CHINA

DETERMINANTS OF A RESILIENT PAKISTAN

Stable Democracy and Freedom of Speech.

Successful campaign against militants has reduced violence significantly in recent days.

Strong Social fabric and traditions.

Strong Judiciary as a positive prospect.

A brighter outlook for Sino-Pakistani economic ties.

Balancing relationships in the Middle East(on Yamen Issue).

Improved prospects for peace in Afghanistan.

India-Pakistan talks to begin soon.

FUTURE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Pak China Economic Corridor($46 bn).

Pakistan’s increasing working-age population provides the country with a potential demographic dividend but also with the critical challenge to provide adequate services and jobs.

Pakistan is a junction of south Asia, west Asia and central Asia; a way from resource efficient countries to resource deficient countries.

Pakistan has been traditionally ally of emerging economic giant; china. So in case of any shift in world’s politics, Pakistan’s geo-strategic significance would further be enhanced.

Saudi-Iran Relations and Pakistan’s role in the wake of Sectarian Conflicts

(WB, ADB, Moody’s, S&P)

CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION

Despite many challenges, the country has achieved significant

improvement in terms of economic development and terrorism

specially in conflict areas i.e FATA & Baluchistan.

Terrorism as the root cause of fragility. Therefore, the world should

recognize the role of the country being the front line state in the

WOT and support Pakistan. There should be: International Agreement against Terrorism

Improvement on Border Control

Comprehensive Plan by Government

Despite their problems, Pakistan is resilient enough to withstand

tremendous shocks.

*****We hope the future is brighter*****

THANK YOU

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