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Equity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Retail Sector - August: No improvement yet (NEUTRAL) After the strong sales during the festive season in June and July, the performance of the country’s retailers in August was significantly lower following the seasonality. On an encouraging note, the SSG for ACES has slowly improved – albeit still negative – although RALS’ performance remains lethargic with lower SSG. As for MAPI, it no longer releases monthly sales data. The deteriorating macroeconomic conditions remain the biggest challenge facing the retailers under our coverage. As such, any improvements in the economy – and especially higher consumer purchasing power – would be positive catalysts for the sector. We remain NEUTRAL on the sector. Previous Reports: ADHI: LRT projects groundbreaking: a good start!- Snapshot20150910 BMRI: Improvements will take time-Snapshot20150908 SMRA: Asset transfer to subsidiary-Snapshot20150904 7M15 Results - Snapshot20150903 PGAS: No signs of recovery yet, 7M15-Snapshot20150902 ADRO: Maintain quarterly net profit-Snapshot20150901 TINS: Gain on revaluation recovered earnings in 2Q15- Snapshot20150901 MARKET NEWS *Analysts’ comment inside August Cement Sales Increased 14.7% YoY (TJP) Govt to Allow Early Mining License Extension (TJP) Market still not conducive, Tower Bersama to issue IDR 1tn bond (ID) SMBR record IDR 800bn sales, currently processing syndication loan (BI, ID) IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Buyback schedule Code Buyback period Max buyback (Rp bn) Max price/share (Rp) MPMX 24-Aug 23-Nov 50 1,000 RALS 25-Aug 24-Nov 400 --.-- ARNA 25-Aug 25-Nov 18 --.-- CLPI 26-Aug 26-Nov 4.5 --.-- Source: KSEI MORNING HIGHLIGHT Key Index Close Chg Ytd Vol (%) (%) (US$ m) Asean - 5 Indonesia 4,343 (0.1) (16.9) 245 Thailand 1,396 (0.0) (6.8) 999 Philippines 6,894 (0.7) (4.7) 128 Malaysia 1,614 0.7 (8.4) 562 Singapore 2,888 (1.4) (14.2) 536 Regional China 3,198 (1.4) (1.1) 67,731 Hong Kong 21,563 (2.6) (8.7) 10,336 Japan 18,146 (0.8) 4.0 9,534 Korea 1,944 (0.9) 1.5 4,648 Taiwan 8,269 (0.2) (11.2) 2,598 India 25,622 (0.4) (6.8) 376 NASDAQ 4,796 0.8 1.3 72,811 Dow Jones 16,330 0.5 (8.4) 9,350 Currency and Interest Rate Rate w-w m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,333 (1.2) (5.8) (15.7) SBI rate % 6.75 0.1 0.1 (0.5) 10y Gov Indo bond 9.23 0.3 0.6 1.4 Hard Commodities Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Coal US$/ton 58 0.0 (3.8) (7.2) Gold US$/toz 1,111 0.1 0.2 (6.2) Nickel US$/mt.ton 10,420 3.4 (6.2) (30.9) Tin US$/mt.ton 15,738 3.4 (0.4) (19.0) Soft Commodities Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton 3,308 1.4 4.3 11.3 Corn US$/mt.ton 135 1.5 (6.4) (5.5) Crude Oil US$/barrel 49 (0.5) (1.1) (15.1) Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 1,978 1.7 (0.9) (13.9) Rubber USd/kg 126 0.2 (7.7) (17.1) Pulp US$/tonne 840 n/a (1.1) (9.9) Coffee US$/60kgbag 85 0.0 2.9 23.8 Sugar US$/MT 339 (2.1) (2.3) (13.4) Wheat US$/ton 130 (0.1) (6.7) (22.3) Source: Bloomberg

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Page 1: Friday, September 11, 2015 - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20150911.pdfEquity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research PT

Equity Research

Friday, September 11, 2015

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Retail Sector - August: No improvement yet (NEUTRAL)

After the strong sales during the festive season in June and July, the performance of the country’s retailers in August was significantly lower following the seasonality. On an encouraging note, the SSG for ACES has slowly improved – albeit still negative – although RALS’ performance remains lethargic with lower SSG. As for MAPI, it no longer releases monthly sales data. The deteriorating macroeconomic conditions remain the biggest challenge facing the retailers under our coverage. As such, any improvements in the economy – and especially higher consumer purchasing power – would be positive catalysts for the sector. We remain NEUTRAL on the sector.

Previous Reports:

ADHI: LRT projects groundbreaking: a good start!- Snapshot20150910 BMRI: Improvements will take time-Snapshot20150908 SMRA: Asset transfer to subsidiary-Snapshot20150904 7M15 Results - Snapshot20150903 PGAS: No signs of recovery yet, 7M15-Snapshot20150902 ADRO: Maintain quarterly net profit-Snapshot20150901 TINS: Gain on revaluation recovered earnings in 2Q15-

Snapshot20150901

MARKET NEWS *Analysts’ comment inside

August Cement Sales Increased 14.7% YoY (TJP) Govt to Allow Early Mining License Extension (TJP) Market still not conducive, Tower Bersama to issue IDR 1tn bond (ID)

SMBR record IDR 800bn sales, currently processing syndication loan (BI, ID)

IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Buyback schedule

Code Buyback period

Max buyback (Rp bn)

Max price/share (Rp)

MPMX 24-Aug 23-Nov 50 1,000

RALS 25-Aug 24-Nov 400 --.--

ARNA 25-Aug 25-Nov 18 --.--

CLPI 26-Aug 26-Nov 4.5 --.--

Source: KSEI

MORNING HIGHLIGHT

Key Index

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 4,343 (0.1) (16.9) 245

Thailand 1,396 (0.0) (6.8) 999

Philippines 6,894 (0.7) (4.7) 128

Malaysia 1,614 0.7 (8.4) 562

Singapore 2,888 (1.4) (14.2) 536

Regional

China 3,198 (1.4) (1.1) 67,731

Hong Kong 21,563 (2.6) (8.7) 10,336

Japan 18,146 (0.8) 4.0 9,534

Korea 1,944 (0.9) 1.5 4,648

Taiwan 8,269 (0.2) (11.2) 2,598

India 25,622 (0.4) (6.8) 376

NASDAQ 4,796 0.8 1.3 72,811

Dow Jones 16,330 0.5 (8.4) 9,350

Currency and Interest Rate

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,333 (1.2) (5.8) (15.7)

SBI rate % 6.75 0.1 0.1 (0.5)

10y Gov Indo bond 9.23 0.3 0.6 1.4

Hard Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 58 0.0 (3.8) (7.2)

Gold US$/toz 1,111 0.1 0.2 (6.2)

Nickel US$/mt.ton 10,420 3.4 (6.2) (30.9)

Tin US$/mt.ton 15,738 3.4 (0.4) (19.0)

Soft Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 3,308 1.4 4.3 11.3

Corn US$/mt.ton 135 1.5 (6.4) (5.5)

Crude Oil US$/barrel 49 (0.5) (1.1) (15.1)

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 1,978 1.7 (0.9) (13.9)

Rubber USd/kg 126 0.2 (7.7) (17.1)

Pulp US$/tonne 840 n/a (1.1) (9.9)

Coffee US$/60kgbag 85 0.0 2.9 23.8

Sugar US$/MT 339 (2.1) (2.3) (13.4)

Wheat US$/ton 130 (0.1) (6.7) (22.3)

Source: Bloomberg

Page 2: Friday, September 11, 2015 - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20150911.pdfEquity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research PT

Equity Research

Friday, September 11, 2015

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5825 Banking

Eka Savitri

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5825 Coal, Heavy Equipment, Metal Mining

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5821 Consumer

Jennifer Frederika Yapply

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5817 Pharmaceutical

Armando Marulitua [email protected] (62-21) 2955 5820 Property, Retail

Anindya Saraswati

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Research Associate

Puti Adani

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Research Associate

Antonia Febe Hartono

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151

Ermawati A. Erman [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128

Novrita E. Putrianti

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132

Ehrliech Suhartono

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145

Yunita L. Nababan

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3127

Bram Taarea [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3126

Martin Joshua

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125

Laksmita Armandani

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109

Muhammad Hardiansyah

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121

Tuty Sutopo

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137

Upik Yuzarni

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3139

Kevin Giarto

Page 3: Friday, September 11, 2015 - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20150911.pdfEquity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research PT

Anindya Saraswati (62-21) 2955 820 [email protected]

Retail Sector August: No improvement yet After the strong sales during the festive season in June and July, the performance of the country’s retailers in August was significantly lower following the seasonality. On an encouraging note, the SSG for ACES has slowly improved – albeit still negative – although RALS’ performance remains lethargic with lower SSG. As for MAPI, it no longer releases monthly sales data. The deteriorating macroeconomic conditions remain the biggest challenge facing the retailers under our coverage. As such, any improvements in the economy – and especially higher consumer purchasing power – would be positive catalysts for the sector. We remain NEUTRAL on the sector. Ace Hardware Indonesia (BUY – TP Rp780) ACES booked Rp395 bn of sales in August 2015. On a monthly basis, sales were 12.4% lower since July’s strong sales were bolstered by Ramadhan and the Idul Fitri holidays. On a yoy basis, the performance in August 2015 was relatively flat, with sales only up 2.2% from Rp386 bn in August 2014. The yoy SSG was still weak in the out of Java stores (-2.2% in August 2015), and this translated into overall yoy SSG of only 0.1% (0.8% for Jakarta stores and 1.0% for Java ex-Jakarta stores). On a year-to-date basis, SSG remains negative although to a lesser extent. The weakest performance was still booked by the out of Java stores (-4.7%), vis-à-vis -0.7% and -0.4% for the Jakarta and Java stores. ACES now operates 116 stores across Indonesia, with 7 stores opened so far this year. The opening of these new stores has increased total store space by 15,930 sqm. Nonetheless, the company was forced to close down 1 of its stores in Tebet Green, South Jakarta, due to issues with the developer’s license. The store has total space of 1,400 sqm, providing only a minimal contribution to total sales of less than 1%. Exhibit 1. ACES change in store space

Source: Company Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (SELL – TP Rp660) In August 2015, RALS generated Rp418 bn of sales, normalizing from its sales peak of Rp1,775 bn in July 2015. The August performance was weak with sales down 8.0% compared to sales in August 2014. The accumulated sales in the first 8 months of the year amounted to Rp5,630 bn, which is 3.9% down from sales in the same period in 2014. The year-to-date SSG in August remained lethargic at negative 4.8%. This resulted from the weak SSG recorded by the out of Java stores (-8.0%), while the Greater Jakarta and Java stores posted -1.6% and -2.7% SSG, respectively. As of August 2015, RALS’ out of Java stores contributed 40.4% to total sales, followed by its Greater Jakarta stores (32.8%) and its Java stores (26.8%). There were no changes in store space during August and the company currently operates 994,102 sqm of store space.

No Date Store number Location Total area (sqm)

1 Feb-15 111 Bandar Lampung 2,010

2 Feb-15 112 Karawang, Bekas i 2,740

3 May-15 113 Rempoa 3,000

4 May-15 113 Bumi Serpong Damai 1,980

5 Jun-15 115 Ciputat 2,500

6 Jul -15 116 Kupang 1,800

7 Jul -15 115 Tebet Green (1,400)

8 Aug-15 116 Lombok 1,900

14,530 TOTAL

Friday, 11 September 2015

NEUTRAL

ACES relative to JCI Index

MAPI relative to JCI Index

RALS relative to JCI Index

Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.

Page 4: Friday, September 11, 2015 - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20150911.pdfEquity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research PT

2

Retail Sector 17 November 2014

Staying NEUTRAL on the sector The deteriorating macroeconomic conditions remain the biggest challenge facing the retailers under our coverage. Moreover, further rupiah depreciation would also have a negative impact on retailers that have significant USD exposure. Any improvements in economic conditions – and especially higher consumer purchasing power – would be positive catalysts for the sector. For the time being, we maintain our NEUTRAL call on the sector. Exhibit 2. Retailers’ valuation table

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas

Current price Target Price PE, x EV/EBITDA, x ROE, % Net gearing, %

Rp Rp 2015F 2015F 2015F 2015F

Sector

Average 17.6 8.9 54.9 13.3

ACES BUY 555 780 17.0 11.1 7.2 21.7 Net Cash

MAPI BUY 3,260 6,525 18.9 9.6 157.7 10.7 111.8

RALS SELL 595 660 16.8 6.1 -14.0% 7.4 Net Cash

Company Recom.EPS CAGR

FY14-16, %

Page 5: Friday, September 11, 2015 - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20150911.pdfEquity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research PT

Equity Research

Friday, September 11, 2015

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

August Cement Sales Increased 14.7% YoY (TJP)

Domestic cement sales in August rise 14.7% YoY to 5.34mn tons, with Widodo Santoso, Head of Indonesian Cement Association,

citing the improvement in infrastructure and apartment and housing projects that caused the spur in sales. Additionally, August

sales also benefitted from minimum holidays in the month. Widodo further elaborated that the highest increase came from

Sumatra (21.4% YoY to 1.15mn tons) and Java (14.9% YoY to 3.04mn tons).

Govt to Allow Early Mining License Extension (TJP)

Indonesia is on course to allow mining firms to apply earlier for license extention in a move that is expected to provide more

certainty for business, as Sudirman Said, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, mentioned that hard mineral miners could

submit license extension proposal 10 years prior to expiry, with non-metal mining firms can apply for license extension 5 years

prior to expiry.

SMBR record IDR 800bn sales, currently processing syndication loan (BI, ID)

Semen Baturaja (SMBR) recorded net sales of IDR 880.1bn per 8M15, up 29% YoY, which comes from the cement sales volume

grew which 29% YoY to 925,034 tons. This achievement is approximately 51% of the IDR 1.7tn sales target for 2015. SMBR

currently is also processing syndicated loan which will be allocated for expansion of Baturaja II plant, with a loan value of over

IDR 750bn, which increase the company's production capacity to 3.85mn tonnes per year in 2016. This multiyear project is

targeted for completion in 1Q17 and later on, SMBR plan to proceed with the construction of the Baturaja III plant.

Market still not conducive, Tower Bersama to issue IDR 1tn bond (ID)

Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG) plans to issue bonds worth a minimum of IDR 1tn in October-November 2015 with a tenor

of one to five years. Proceeds will be used to pay off some debt from the total USD 200mn matured in 4Q15. TBIG still have

leftover worth IDR 3.1tn from sustainable public offering (PUB) bonds 1 from the total platfon of IDR 4tn and will restructure

some of its foreign currency debt with an option to extend its tenor while also having syndicated bank loans which have not

been withdrawn worth USD 200mn, part of the total syndicated loan worth USD 1bn.

MARKET NEWS

Page 6: Friday, September 11, 2015 - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20150911.pdfEquity Research Friday, September 11, 2015 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research PT

Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2015

Danareksa Universe 2,500,467 188,484 210,742 296.9 331.9 5% 12% 13.3 11.9 11.1 10.1 2.2 2.0 17.9

Auto 255,601 24,706 29,222 452.6 535.3 15% 18% 10.3 8.7 8.6 7.4 1.8 1.6 18.6

Astra International HOLD 6,050 8,300 244,925 23,976 28,096 592 694 497 567 16% 17% 10.2 8.7 8.7 7.5 1.8 1.6 33.5 19.1

Gajah Tunggal BUY 461 1,500 1,606 266 633 76 182 140 127 -1% 138% 6.0 2.5 4.1 4.0 0.3 0.2 95.0 4.4

Selamat Sempurna BUY 4,705 5,300 6,774 465 493 323 342 332 352 19% 6% 14.6 13.7 8.8 8.2 4.7 3.9 net cash 36.0

Banks 844,291 74,512 81,638 691.7 757.8 0% 10% 11.3 10.3 2.0 1.7 19.1

BCA HOLD 11,925 14,050 294,011 19,127 21,921 767 879 767 879 15% 15% 15.5 13.6 NA NA 3.1 2.6 NA 22.4

BNI BUY 4,485 5,850 83,639 7,506 8,596 402 461 402 461 -30% 15% 11.2 9.7 NA NA 1.3 1.2 NA 12.1

BRI BUY 9,650 13,400 238,057 24,352 25,863 987 1,048 987 1,048 0% 6% 9.8 9.2 NA NA 2.1 1.8 NA 23.0

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,010 1,400 10,688 1,357 1,609 129 153 129 153 22% 19% 7.8 6.6 NA NA 0.8 0.7 NA 10.6

Bank Mandiri BUY 8,600 11,450 200,667 20,144 21,413 863 918 863 918 1% 6% 10.0 9.4 NA NA 1.7 1.5 NA 18.2

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BUY 2,950 4,500 17,229 2,026 2,237 347 383 347 383 8% 10% 8.5 7.7 NA NA 1.2 1.1 NA 15.8

Cement 137,972 12,525 15,375 725 890 7% 23% 11.0 9.0 6.6 5.8 2.1 1.8 20.0

Holcim HOLD 1,085 2,300 8,314 923 1,213 120 158 118 152 12% 31% 9.0 6.9 5.2 3.9 0.8 0.7 30.0 9.1

Indocement BUY 18,625 28,300 68,563 5,741 6,595 1,559 1,792 1,555 1,788 8% 15% 11.9 10.4 6.7 5.6 2.4 2.2 net cash 21.2

Semen Indonesia BUY 10,300 14,500 61,095 5,861 7,567 988 1,276 988 1,276 5% 29% 10.4 8.1 6.8 6.4 2.3 1.9 12.3 23.2

Construction 102,518 4,317 5,350 102 126 17% 24% 23.7 19.2 11.3 9.7 3.0 2.6 14.4

Jasa Marga BUY 5,000 8,000 34,000 1,531 1,779 480 614 513 657 19% 28% 10.4 8.1 11.9 10.6 2.7 2.5 95.8 12.8

Wijaya Karya HOLD 2,720 2,500 16,726 573 638 93 104 98 109 -7% 11% 29.2 26.2 11.9 10.0 3.0 2.7 29.0 10.9

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,515 4,600 17,021 694 856 143 177 150 185 30% 23% 24.5 19.9 9.9 8.4 5.7 4.6 39.2 25.8

Adhi Karya BUY 2,205 3,700 3,972 399 531 221 295 244 322 23% 33% 10.0 7.5 5.5 4.7 1.9 1.6 66.6 20.8

Waskita Karya BUY 1,625 2,000 22,737 725 1,054 53 78 53 78 4% 46% 30.4 20.9 15.0 12.6 2.6 2.3 net cash 12.5

Wika Beton HOLD 925 1,350 8,062 396 491 45 56 46 57 32% 24% 20.4 16.4 10.6 8.4 3.2 2.8 net cash 17.1

Consumer 411,678 13,419 14,186 488 516 7% 6% 30.7 29.0 18.1 17.1 7.2 6.1 25.9

Indofood CBP BUY 12,150 13,800 70,846 3,033 3,308 520 567 520 567 16% 9% 23.4 21.4 16.1 15.1 4.5 4.0 net cash 20.3

Indofood BUY 4,960 7,100 43,551 3,704 4,059 422 462 563 610 -5% 10% 11.8 10.7 5.5 5.3 1.5 1.4 19.5 13.8

Unilever SELL 37,750 30,475 288,033 5,889 6,234 772 817 772 817 3% 6% 48.9 46.2 33.6 32.0 28.2 17.6 net cash 80.4

Nippon Indosari Corpindo BUY 1,120 1,680 5,669 266 309 53 61 53 61 41% 16% 21.3 18.3 12.3 9.9 4.7 3.9 59.5 24.7

Mandom BUY 17,800 21,170 3,579 526 276 2,618 1,375 279 1,373 202% -47% 6.8 12.9 7.6 6.6 2.1 2.0 net cash 35.7

Healthcare 133,195 3,219 3,609 595 703 20% 18% 41.4 36.9 26.3 22.5 7.5 6.7 19.9

Kalbe Farma BUY 1,555 1,925 72,891 2,219 2,375 47 51 47 52 8% 7% 32.8 30.7 21.5 18.9 6.9 6.2 net cash 22.2

Kimia Farma BUY 690 1,500 3,832 258 313 47 56 41 50 12% 19% 14.7 12.3 10.0 8.0 1.9 1.7 2.2 13.5

Siloam Hospital HOLD 14,550 16,900 16,821 153 245 96 132 99 137 77% 38% 151.8 110.0 27.7 22.0 9.5 8.8 35.5 8.9

Mitra Keluarga BUY 27,250 29,950 39,651 589 676 405 464 397 454 14% 15% 67.3 58.7 61.0 51.8 11.9 10.7 net cash 22.9

Heavy Equipment 66,105 5,973 6,297 1,307 1,378 7% 5% 11.1 10.5 4.9 4.1 1.6 1.4 14.6

Hexindo Adiperkasa HOLD 1,540 3,650 1,294 220 260 262 309 238 273 13% 18% 5.9 5.0 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.4 net cash 8.0

United Tractors HOLD 17,375 19,800 64,811 5,753 6,037 1,542 1,619 1,542 1,619 7% 5% 11.3 10.7 5.0 4.2 1.6 1.5 net cash 15.1

Mining 65,772 7,134 8,305 110 128 -19% 16% 9.2 7.9 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.6 7.3

Adaro Energy BUY 540 1,150 17,272 2,095 2,202 66 69 66 69 2% 5% 8.2 7.8 3.4 2.9 0.5 0.5 33.0 6.2

Timah BUY 590 850 4,394 157 237 21 32 21 32 -75% 51% 27.9 18.5 6.7 6.3 0.8 0.8 24.9 2.9

Vale Indonesia BUY 1,455 3,700 14,457 1,386 1,790 140 180 140 180 -36% 29% 10.4 8.1 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.6 net cash 6.2

Aneka Tambang HOLD 482 1,100 4,598 194 400 20 42 20 42 -148% 106% 23.7 11.5 11.6 8.8 0.4 0.4 62.8 1.6

Bukit Asam BUY 5,575 8,400 12,846 1,560 1,674 718 770 718 770 -23% 7% 7.8 7.2 5.5 5.0 1.4 1.2 net cash 17.4

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 8,600 10,600 9,717 1,622 1,800 1,435 1,593 1,435 1,593 -23% 11% 6.0 5.4 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.8 net cash 15.2

Harum Energy HOLD 920 1,750 2,487 119 202 44 75 44 75 -53% 69% 20.9 12.3 0.0 0.0- 0.7 0.7 net cash 3.1

Plantation 43,484 5,510 5,938 211 227 11% 8% 7.9 7.3 4.4 3.9 1.1 1.0 14.9

Astra Agro Lestari BUY 16,500 27,100 25,983 2,770 2,832 1,759 1,798 1,759 1,798 4% 2% 9.4 9.2 5.6 5.2 2.2 2.0 net cash 24.5

Sampoerna Agro BUY 1,320 2,600 2,495 464 550 245 291 253 299 18% 19% 5.4 4.5 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.7 31.8 14.5

PP London Sumatra HOLD 1,140 2,090 7,778 1,055 1,133 155 166 155 166 8% 7% 7.4 6.9 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.9 net cash 13.9

Salim Ivomas Pratama BUY 457 850 7,228 1,221 1,423 77 90 87 98 33% 17% 5.9 5.1 3.5 3.1 0.5 0.4 37.6 8.2

Property 88,434 8,896 10,205 87 99 -10% 15% 9.9 8.7 8.9 7.7 1.8 1.5 18.8

Alam Sutera BUY 348 700 6,838 1,254 1,516 64 77 73 85 15% 21% 5.5 4.5 6.3 5.3 1.0 0.8 75.3 18.9

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,480 2,100 28,485 2,369 2,617 135 150 140 156 -36% 10% 10.9 9.9 9.5 8.4 1.9 1.7 net cash 16.6

Metropolitan Land BUY 255 620 1,952 290 322 38 43 38 43 14% 11% 6.7 6.0 5.0 4.7 0.9 0.8 27.7 14.2

Surya Semesta Internusa HOLD 740 1,040 3,482 464 415 99 88 103 93 32% -11% 7.5 8.4 3.1 3.2 1.2 1.1 net cash 16.9

Lippo Karawaci BUY 1,140 1,200 26,309 1,565 1,763 72 82 58 64 -38% 13% 15.8 14.0 11.9 10.2 1.6 1.5 27.3 10.1

PP Properti BUY 145 242 2,036 1,626 1,963 21 26 22 28 172% 27% 7.1 5.6 5.0 4.9 0.9 0.8 8.8 100.6

Summarecon BUY 1,340 2,045 19,332 1,327 1,609 92 111 92 111 -5% 21% 14.6 12.0 10.9 9.0 3.9 3.1 57.1 29.6

Telco & Infrastructure 405,221 19,313 22,528 141 165 28% 17% 21.0 18.0 6.1 5.5 3.3 3.1 17.0

XL Axiata BUY 2,610 4,710 22,293 356 680 42 80 42 80 -140% 91% 62.5 32.8 4.8 4.3 1.6 1.5 120.7 2.5

Indosat BUY 3,760 4,200 20,432 312 588 57 108 38 89 -152% 89% 65.5 34.7 3.7 3.3 1.3 1.2 132.4 2.0

Telkom HOLD 2,765 3,050 278,712 15,554 16,458 158 168 158 168 6% 6% 17.5 16.5 5.6 5.2 3.8 3.5 net cash 22.1

Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 4,000 4,600 40,812 1,585 2,040 155 200 158 202 89% 29% 25.7 20.0 12.5 10.5 6.6 5.2 108.8 29.2

Tower Bersama HOLD 6,750 8,600 32,377 1,528 2,387 300 429 300 429 9% 43% 22.5 15.7 13.2 10.5 2.8 2.3 129.0 19.3

MNC Sky Vision HOLD 1,500 1,230 10,596 (22) 375 (3) 53 (2) 1 -86% -1776% (474.1) 28.3 10.5 9.1 6.6 5.3 162.0 -1.4

Tranportation 16,389 1,253 1,554 501 621 62% 24% 13.1 10.5 7.4 6.0 3.7 2.9 32.4

Blue Bird BUY 6,550 12,200 16,389 1,253 1,554 501 621 488 608 62% 24% 13.1 10.5 7.4 6.0 3.7 2.9 43.9 32.4

Utility 60,240 11,088 10,313 457 425 3% -7% 5.4 5.8 3.7 4.0 1.5 1.3 28.7

PGN BUY 2,485 6,650 60,240 11,088 10,313 457 425 5,775 5,313 3% -7% 5.4 5.8 3.7 4.0 1.5 1.3 net cash 28.7

Retail 19,152 1,091 1,385 42 53 11% 27% 17.6 13.8 8.3 6.8 2.1 1.9 12.6

Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 3,260 6,525 5,412 287 492 173 296 183 306 284% 72% 18.9 11.0 6.6 5.1 1.9 1.7 111.8 10.7

Ramayana SELL 595 660 4,222 243 255 34 36 34 36 -31% 5% 17.3 16.6 8.2 7.5 1.2 1.2 net cash 7.2

Ace Hardware BUY 555 780 9,518 561 638 33 37 32 37 2% 12% 16.8 15.0 11.1 9.4 3.4 2.9 net cash 21.7

Net Gearing ROE EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)Core EPS (Rp)Equity

Valuation Rating Price (Rp)

Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp)

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LEADERS Price as on

Code 10-Sep-2015 9-Sep-2015 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Semen Indonesia SMGR 10,300 9,250 11.4 11.7 6.2 (36.4) BUY

XL Axiata EXCL 2,610 2,505 4.2 (8.7) 1.2 (46.4) BUY

Tower Bersama TBIG 6,750 6,500 3.8 (0.7) (9.7) (30.4) HOLD

Indocement INTP 18,625 18,050 3.2 1.2 (5.9) (25.5) BUY

Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,555 1,530 1.6 (7.4) (5.8) (15.0) BUY

Indosat ISAT 3,760 3,700 1.6 (1.8) (13.5) (7.2) BUY

Lippo Karawaci LPKR 1,140 1,125 1.3 8.1 2.7 11.8 BUY

Telkom TLKM 2,765 2,730 1.3 (1.3) (6.7) (3.0) HOLD

Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,485 2,455 1.2 (14.0) (31.2) (58.6) BUY

Selamat Sempurna SMSM 4,705 4,650 1.2 (2.0) 1.4 (0.9) BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on

Code 10-Sep-2015 9-Sep-2015 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Adaro Energy ADRO 540 580 (6.9) (12.9) (4.4) (48.1) BUY

Sampoerna Agro SGRO 1,320 1,385 (4.7) - (21.2) (37.1) BUY

Astra Agro Lestari AALI 16,500 17,300 (4.6) 1.4 (16.5) (32.0) BUY

PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,140 1,190 (4.2) 6.5 (9.2) (39.7) HOLD

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 8,600 8,950 (3.9) (1.7) (12.0) (44.1) HOLD

Bukit Asam PTBA 5,575 5,800 (3.9) (8.2) (7.1) (55.4) BUY

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 4,485 4,665 (3.9) (4.3) (8.3) (26.5) BUY

Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 457 474 (3.6) (1.7) (7.1) (35.2) BUY

United Tractors UNTR 17,375 18,000 (3.5) (12.8) (13.1) 0.1 HOLD

Vale Indonesia INCO 1,455 1,500 (3.0) 0.3 (24.6) (59.9) BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

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