monday, december 28, 2015 - danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/upload/morning pack 20151228.pdf ·...

Equity Research

Monday, December 28, 2015

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

United Tractors: A monthly recovery in three divisions (UNTR IJ. Rp 15,300. HOLD. TP Rp 18,500) United Tractors (UNTR) reported a recovery in the Komatsu sales volume by 85.9% mom to 132 units in November 2015. We noted that the recovery in the sales volume was mainly came from the construction sector following speeding up in the infrastructure project mainly for the project valued >Rp100 bn. With commodity prices to remain weak and lower margin from mining contracting (MC) division, we maintain our HOLD recommendation with lower target price of Rp18,500 (DCF valuation with WACC of 14.8% and long-term growth of 3%) while we also roll-over valuation to 2016. Our target price represents 12.0x 2016F PE.

Pembangunan Perumahan: Remains optimistic

(PTPP IJ. Rp 3,715. BUY. TP Rp 4,700) The 3Q15 earning figure came inline with our expectation despite higher than expected margin from EPC segment. Nonetheless, PTPP’s management expects a slower topline growth in FY15 following progress slow down in projects from private sector despite robust new contracts progress. Furthermore, PTPP expects Rp1 tn addition to its equity from asset revaluation surplus currently being undertaken. Into 2016, the management keeps its optimism targeting Rp31 tn new contracts and 25% earnings growth. All in all, we maintain our positive view on PTPP for its solid earnings visibility, good project execution and strong ability to generate new contracts. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rp4,700.

MARKET NEWS

*Analysts’ comment inside

4 Toll Road Sections to Operate Ahead of Lebaran (BI) China Shenhua Won Jawa 7 Power Plant Tender (BI) Krakatau Steel Will Build Plant Worth USD405.9 Million (ID) PTPP Optimist to Grow More Than 20% in 2016 (ID)

Previous Reports:

PP Properti: 9M15-Below Expectation-Snapshot20151222 Strategy - JCI: Road to Recovery-Snapshot20151221 Construction: Infrastructure Driven Scenario-Snapshot20151216 AUTO: Still weak on cumulative basis, Construction: PUPR: likely to

miss budget target-Snapshot20151215 Cement: Maintaining sturdy sales volume in November 2015, Retail:

No surprise-Snapshot20151214

IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Corp Action

Code Action Date Time (WIB) MDRN EGM 28-Dec-15 14

NOBU EGM 29-Dec-15 14

Source: KSEI

MORNING HIGHLIGHT

Key Index

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 4,523 0.1 (13.5) n/a

Thailand 1,283 (0.1) (14.3) 471

Philippines 7,002 0.5 (3.2) n/a

Malaysia 1,664 1.2 (5.5) 366

Singapore 2,878 0.5 (14.5) 266

Regional

China 3,628 0.4 12.2 67,272

Hong Kong 22,138 0.4 (6.2) 3,501

Japan 18,817 0.3 7.8 825

Korea 1,988 (0.1) 3.8 3,099

Taiwan 8,363 0.5 (10.1) 1,218

India 25,839 (0.0) (6.0) 413

NASDAQ 5,048 0.1 6.6 22,785

Dow Jones 17,552 (0.3) (1.5) 3,400

Currency and Interest Rate

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,643 0.8 1.6 (9.7)

SBI rate % 7.10 - - (0.1)

10y Gov Indo bond 8.74 0.0 0.1 0.9

Hard Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 51 0.0 (2.7) (17.5)

Gold US$/toz 1,076 0.1 1.8 (9.1)

Nickel US$/mt.ton 8,600 (0.4) (3.1) (43.0)

Tin US$/mt.ton 14,570 (0.5) (1.2) (25.0)

Soft Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 3,246 (1.4) (4.9) 9.2

Corn US$/mt.ton 135 (0.7) (2.0) (5.4)

Crude Oil US$/barrel 38 (0.4) (15.9

) (34.2)

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,187 1.2 5.8 (4.8)

Rubber USd/kg 119 0.6 3.7 (21.7)

Pulp US$/tonne 804 n/a (1.9) (13.8)

Coffee US$/60kgbag 93 (0.0) 0.6 39.6

Sugar US$/MT 415 0.2 3.0 6.0

Wheat US$/ton 127 (0.4) (4.1) (24.5)

Source: Bloomberg

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Equity Research



PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5831 Coal, Heavy Equipment, Metal Mining

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5817 Pharmaceutical

Armando Marulitua

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5820 Property, Retail

Anindya Saraswati

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5824 Research Associate

Puti Adani

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Research Associate

Antonia Febe Hartono

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151

Ermawati A. Erman


Novrita E. Putrianti


Ehrliech Suhartono


Yunita L. Nababan


Martin Joshua


Laksmita Armandani


Muhammad Hardiansyah


Tuty Sutopo


Upik Yuzarni


Kevin Giarto

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5616 Strategy, Banking

A. Indrajatri Suwono, CFA

Monday, 28 December 2015

HEAVY EQUIPMENT/COMPANY UPDATE

United Tractors A monthly recovery in three divisions

United Tractors (UNTR) reported a recovery in the Komatsu sales volume by 85.9% mom to 132 units in November 2015. We noted that the recovery in the sales volume was mainly came from the construction sector following speeding up in the infrastructure project mainly for the project valued >Rp100 bn. Still, on yearly basis, Komatsu sales volume declined by 41.2% yoy to 2,002 units in 11M15. The sales volume was slightly above our expectation of 2,000 units. Given a month remaining and December sales volume tends to be lower than previous month, we expect Komatsu sales volume to reach 2,100 units, which is in-line with the management guidance. With commodity prices to remain weak and lower margin from mining contracting (MC) division, we maintain our HOLD recommendation with lower target price of Rp18,500 (DCF valuation with WACC of 14.8% and long-term growth of 3%) while we also roll-over valuation to 2016. Our target price represents 12.0x 2016F PE.

Regaining Komatsu sales volume in November 2015 Komatsu showed a recovery in sales volume to 132 units in November 2015 (+85.9% mom, after the lowest sales volume of only 71 units in October 2015. The recovery was mainly came from the construction sector which increased by 173% mom to 82 units. We believe this is due to the acceleration in awarding progress for the project valued >Rp100 bn by 37% mom with total value of Rp7.6 tn in November 2015. While the commodity price remained lackluster, there was also a recovery in the Komatsu sales volume for mining sector to 30 units (October 2015: 13 units).

But it was still decline on the cumulative basis On the cumulative basis, the Komatsu sales volume went down by 41.2% yoy to 2,002 units in 11M15 with the greatest decline came from the agri sector (-65.8% yoy) and mining sector (-51.8% yoy) on unfavorable commodity prices. The slow progress in the infrastructure project also reflected on Komatsu sales volume for constructions sector to decline by 26% yoy. While the Komatsu sales volume has already achieved our target, and given December sales volume is usually lower than previous month, we expect Komatsu sales volume to be in-line with the management guidance of 2,100 units.

Monthly recovery in the coal production and coal sales volume The coal production under subsidiary, Pamapersada Nusantara (PAMA) posted a recovery by 11.6% mom to 9.6 mn tons in November 2015, but its stripping ratio declined to only 5.8x in November 2015 from 7.6x in October 2015. Still, with the impact on unfavorable weather condition occurred in 1Q15, the coal production declined by 4.3% yoy to 99.6 mn tons in 2015. With overburden (OB) removal also declined by 4.1% yoy, its stripping ratio was relatively stable at 7.2x in 11M15. The coal sales volume reported a monthly recovery by 27.3% mom, but declined by 12.7% yoy in the cumulative basis.

2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Revenue, IDR bn 51,012 53,142 50,344 48,952 51,008

EBITDA, IDR bn 10,446 11,819 12,729 12,450 13,267

EBITDA Growth, % -4.5 13.1 7.7 -2.2 6.6

Net profit, IDRbn 4,834 5,370 6,111 5,756 6,039

EPS, IDR 1,296 1,440 1,638 1,543 1,619

EPS growth, % -16.4 11.1 13.8 -5.8 4.9

BVPS, Rp 8,498 9,398 10,438 11,336 12,329

DPS, Rp 518 576 655 617 648

Net Gearing, % 6.5 -9.0 -18.2 -20.8 -29.8

PER, x 11.8 10.6 9.3 9.9 9.5

PBV, x 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2

EV/EBITDA, x 5.2 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.1

Yield, % 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.0 4.2

HOLD Target Price, Rp 18,500

Upside 21%

UNTR IJ/UNTR.JK

Last Price, Rp 15,300

No. of shares (bn) 3.7

Market Cap, Rpbn 57,071 (US$ mn) 4,185

3M T/O, US$mn 5.03

Last Recommendation

27-Nov-15 HOLD Rp18,500

30-Oct-15 HOLD Rp19,800

28-Oct-15 HOLD Rp19,800

UNTRrelative to JCI Index

Market Recommendation

Consensus

Our Cons % Diff

Target Price, IDR 18,500 19,052 -3

EPS 2016F, IDR 1,543 1,745 -12

PE 2016F, x 10 9 12

Stefanus Darmagiri (62-21) 2955 5777 ext3530 [email protected] Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Jun

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Jul-

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ug-

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ay-1

5Ju

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5Ju

l-15

Au

g-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-15

UNTR (LHS) Relative to JCI (RHS)

(Rp) (%)

9

15

4

Buy

Hold

Sell

28 December 2015 United Tractors

2

Diversification into the power plant Together with Sumitomo Corporation and Kansai Electric Power Co, the company plans to develop the expansion of Tanjung Jati B unit 5 and 6, under the scheme of build, operate and transfer. This coal-based power plant is expected to have capacity of 2 x 1,000 MW and to reach completion in 2019. The company has secured a power purchasing agreement with PLN, a state owned electricity company for the duration of 25 years. While UNTR has not disclosed yet on the value of the project, we believe the supply of the coal may come from UNTR. As such, this will be positively impact for company business diversification over the long term period given currently lackluster commodity price to impact company’s existing businesses.

Source: United Tractors Source: United Tractors

Source: United Tractors Source: United Tractors

Exhibit 1. Komatsu sales volume Exhibit 2. Recovery in Komatsu sales volume in Nov 2015

Exhibit 3. Higher coal production in Nov 2015 Exhibit 4. And also for coal sales volume

23% 14%

28%

37%

14%

21%

35%

28%

3,403

2,002

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

11M14 11M15

Mining Forestry ConstructionAgro Total

units

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

(units)

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Coal Production (LHS) Stripping Ratio (RHS)

(m tons) (x)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


x 000 tons


3

Exhibit 5. Profit and Loss, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 51,012 53,142 50,344 48,952 51,008

COGS (41,496) (41,071) (39,195) (38,468) (40,010)

Gross Profit 9,517 12,070 11,149 10,484 10,998

Operating Expenses (2,776) (3,204) (3,045) (3,020) (3,170)

Operating Profit 6,741 8,866 8,104 7,464 7,828

Other Income/expenses (137) (2,398) (122) (48) (190)

Net Interest (17) 154 177 267 422

Pre-tax Profit 6,587 6,622 8,159 7,683 8,060

Tax (1,789) (1,782) (2,040) (1,921) (2,015)

Minority Interest 35 530 (8) (7) (6)

Net Profit 4,834 5,370 6,111 5,756 6,039

Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 6.Balance Sheet, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Current Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents 7,936 10,060 10,426 15,110 18,886

Account Receivables 12,141 13,587 12,965 12,473 12,996

Inventories, Net 6,176 7,770 7,627 7,388 7,637

Other Current Assets 1,561 2,163 2,465 2,631 2,865

Total Current Assets 27,814 33,580 33,483 37,602 42,385

Fixed Assets 26,602 22,774 22,348 20,862 19,423

Goodwill 227 364 345 268 279

Other LT Assets 2,719 3,574 3,585 3,519 3,727

Total Assets 57,362 60,292 59,760 62,251 65,814

Current Liabilities ST Debt 1,641 1,279 530 513 533

Other Current Liabilities 12,920 15,019 12,648 11,364 11,286

Total Current Liabilities 14,561 16,298 13,177 11,877 11,818

LT Debt 3,289 2,109 1,578 1,575 1,097

Other LT Liabilities 3,864 3,309 2,538 2,754 3,091

Minority Interests 2,429 1,917 2,397 2,331 2,429

Shareholders' Equity 33,220 36,660 40,070 43,715 47,379

Total Equity & Liabilities 57,362 60,292 59,760 62,251 65,814



4

Exhibit 7. Cash Flow, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Net Profit 4,834 5,370 6,111 5,756 6,039

Depreciation and amortization 3,705 2,953 4,626 4,986 5,439

Change in Working Capital 2,471 (1,606) (1,683) (719) (1,085)

Others Non-Cash 141 2,307 (792) 221 220

Operating Cash Flow 11,150 9,024 8,261 10,243 10,613

Capex (3,464) (2,857) (4,200) (3,500) (4,000)

Investment 32 (451) 55 42 (62)

Others Investing Activities (65) (2) 412 29 58

Investing Cash Flow (3,498) (3,310) (3,733) (3,429) (4,003)

Net Change in Debt (1,029) (1,074) (983) (10) (480)

New Capital 0 0 0 0 0

Dividend (2,189) (1,996) (2,233) (2,404) (2,335)

Others Financing Activities (494) (520) (946) 283 (18)

Financing Cash Flow (3,712) (3,589) (4,162) (2,130) (2,833)

Net change in cash 3,941 2,124 366 4,685 3,776

Net cash (debt) at beg. 3,995 7,936 10,060 10,426 15,110

Net cash (debt) at end. 7,936 10,060 10,426 15,110 18,886


Exhibit 8.Key Ratios, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Gross Margin, % 18.7 22.7 22.1 21.4 21.6

EBITDA Margin, % 20.5 22.2 25.3 25.4 26.0

Operating Margin, % 13.2 16.7 16.1 15.2 15.3

Net Margin, % 9.5 10.1 12.1 11.8 11.8

ROE, % 15.4 15.4 15.9 13.7 13.3

ROA, % 9.0 9.1 10.2 9.4 9.4

Net Gearing, % (9.0) (18.2) (20.8) (29.8) (36.4)


Monday, 28 December 2015

CONSTRUCTION/9M15 RESULT

Pembangunan Perumahan Remains optimistic

The 3Q15 earning figure came inline with our expectation despite higher than expected margin from EPC segment. Nonetheless, PTPP’s management expects a slower topline growth in FY15 following progress slowdown in projects from private sector despite robust new contracts progress. Furthermore, PTPP expects Rp1 tn addition to its equity from asset revaluation surplus currently being undertaken. Into 2016, the management keeps its optimism targeting Rp31 tn new contracts and 25% earnings growth. All in all, we maintain our positive view on PTPP for its solid earnings visibility, good project execution and strong ability to generate new contracts. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rp4,700.

Strong margin in 3Q15 PTPP recorded revenues of Rp9 tn, +15.7% yoy, in 9M15. On quarterly basis, the revenues figure is Rp3.5 tn in 3Q15, +9.7% qoq/+10.9% yoy. The topline figure is inline considering seasonality. Furthermore, PTPP recorded higher margin across the board in 3Q15 with gross margin-ex JO jumped to 13.9% (+1.42ppt qoq/+1.46 yoy) thanks to strong margin recorded by the EPC segment from the completion of 120MW Power Plant in Gorontalo. Operating margin climbed to 11.4% (+1.77ppt qoq/ +0.18ppt yoy) and net margin jumped to 6.1% (+4.04ppt qoq/ +1.62ppt yoy) in 3Q15. As such, the net profit figure surged 29.5% yoy to Rp377 bn in 9M15, inline with our expectation considering seasonality despite the higher than expected margin.

Slowing down on the revenue recognition despite solid new contracts progress As of November 2015 PTPP has acquired Rp21 tn new contracts out of Rp27 tn target for this year. The management remains optimistic the target could be achieved as they expect to sign additional new contract from Bakaheuni-Sidomulyo toll road section valued Rp4 tn in late December. However, the revenues would be slower this year since the management only expects FY15 revenues of Rp14.8 tn, lower than its initial target of Rp15.6 tn due to slowing down progress in several private projects that are temporarily suspended for design changes as well as waiting for market condition.

Asset revaluation is underway PTPP plans to do asset revaluation with a potential revaluation surplus of Rp1.1 tn. The revaluation surplus would increase its equity and increases its leverage capacity. The asset revaluation mainly consists of PTPP office areas with an estimated value post revaluation of Rp840 bn (vs c.Rp36 bn initially). With this revaluation, PTPP also would enjoy 3% tax rate incentive on the revaluation surplus.

Optimism remains in 2016 PTPP’s management expects to obtain Rp31 tn new contracts in 2016 (+15% yoy vs. FY15F). Furthermore, PTPP also plans to set aside Rp2.8 tn fund for investment in property and power plant in 2016 regardless of state capital injection realization. PTPP expects revenues of Rp21.2 tn in 2016, up 43.2% vs. FY15 company expectation. It is targeting Rp1 tn net profit before minority interest, up 25% vs. FY15 company target. All in all, we maintain our positive view on PTPP. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rp4,700.

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Revenues, Rp bn 11,656 12,427 16,061 19,953 23,400

EBITDA, Rp bn 1,188 1,391 1,732 2,187 2,571

EBITDA Growth, % 38.2 17.0 24.5 26.3 17.5

Net Profit, Rp bn 421 532 635 857 1,045

Core Profit, Rp bn 486 569 667 898 1,100

Core EPS, Rp 100 118 138 185 227

Core EPS Growth, % 35.6 17.2 17.2 34.6 22.5

Net Gearing, % (5.5) 26.1 25.6 27.1 21.3

PER, x 42.8 33.8 28.3 21.0 17.2

Core PER, x 37.1 31.6 27.0 20.0 16.4

PBV, x 9.1 7.5 4.9 3.4 2.5

EV/EBITDA, x 15.0 13.4 10.9 8.9 7.6

Yield, % 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0

BUY Target Price, Rp 4,700

Upside 26.5%

PTPP IJ/PTPP.JK

Last Price, Rp 3,715

No. of shares (bn) 4.8

Market Cap, Rp bn 17,990 (US$ mn) 1,319

3M T/O, US$mn 1.37

Last Recommendation

16-Dec-15 BUY Rp4,700

24-Aug-15 BUY Rp4,600

04-May-15 BUY Rp4,600

9M15 Results, A/F, % (INLINE)

9M15, Rp bn A/F, %

Revenues 9,036 56.3

Operating profit 914 55.1

Net profit 377 59.4

Key chart: New contracts

Danareksa vs. Consensus

Our Cons % Diff

Target Price, IDR 4,700 4,564 3

EPS 2016F, IDR 185 192 -4

PE 2016F, x 21 20 7

9.8 8.3 6.7

13.5 16.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1Q 1H 9M FY

New

co

ntr

acts

, R

p t

n

2013 2014 2015

Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.

Armando Marulitua (62-21) 2955 5817 [email protected]

28 December 2015 Pembangunan Perumahan

2

Exhibit 1. PTPP’s 9M15 results


Exhibit 2. Solid new contracts progress in 2015 Exhibit 3. Lower gearing from PPRO’s IPO

Source: Company Source: Company

Exhibit 4. PTPP’s seasonality in revenues and net profits

Source: Company

9M14 9M15 y-y, % 3Q14 2Q15 3Q15 q-q, % y-y, % 2015F A/F, %

(in Rp bn)

New contracts 11,841 16,807 41.9 3,498 6,753 3,354 (50.3) (4.1) 24,411 68.8

Revenues 7,808 9,036 15.7 3,205 3,240 3,553 9.7 10.9 16,061 56.3

Gross profit - ex JO 922 1,178 27.8 400 405 495 22.2 23.9 1,950 60.4

Gross profit - in JO 964 1,200 24.5 426 412 507 23.0 18.9 2,011 59.7

Operating profit 752 914 21.4 360 313 406 29.8 12.7 1,659 55.1

EBITDA 905 964 6.5 379 332 424 27.7 11.6 1,732 55.6

Net interest (182) (173) (4.8) (114) (76) (70) (7.1) (38.3) (388) 44.6

Pre-tax income 530 731 37.8 238 221 348 57.4 46.0 1,218 60.0

Net profit 291 377 29.5 144 67 217 223.2 50.8 635 59.4

(in %)

Gross Margin - ex JO 11.8 13.0 12.5 12.5 13.9 1.42 1.46 12.1

Gross Margin - in JO 12.3 13.3 13.3 12.7 14.3 1.55 0.96 12.5

Opex to sales 2.7 3.2 2.1 3.1 2.8 (0.23) 0.78 2.2

Operating Margin 9.6 10.1 11.2 9.7 11.4 1.77 0.18 10.3

EBITDA Margin 11.6 10.7 11.8 10.2 11.9 1.68 0.08 10.8

Net Margin 3.7 4.2 4.5 2.1 6.1 4.04 1.62 4.0

Equity Research



4 Toll Road Sections to Operate Ahead of Lebaran (BI)

The Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing (PUPR) targeting four new toll roads to be operated on Eid next year. The four

segments consist of: Surabaya-Mojokerto section IA, IIB, II, III and IV; Gempol-Pasuruan section I; Pejagan-Pemalang section I

and II; and Bawen-Salatiga. Ministry of PUPR will also do the operational trial of one Trans-Sumatra toll road section in

Bakaheuni along 8km.

China Shenhua Won Jawa 7 Power Plant Tender (BI)

China Shenhua Energy Company Ltd, a China based company, won the tender of Jawa 7 Steam Power Plant (PLTU) with a

capacity 2x1,000 located in Banten. China Shenhua will cooperate with PLN subsidiary, PT Pembangkitan Jawa Bali (PJB), to

develop the project with shares composition of 70% -30%.

Krakatau Steel Will Build Plant Worth USD405.9 Million (ID)

KRAS will start the construction of the hot strip mill (HSM) II plant amounting to USD405.9 million in January 2016. The target is

later than the original plan in the fourth quarter of this year. HSM II with a capacity of 1.5 million tons per year will be built on an

area of 48 ha in the KRAS’s industrial area, Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon (KIEC). Construction of this plant will increase HSM

production capacity of 2.4 million tonnes per year to 3.9 million tonnes per year in 2018.

PTPP Optimist to Grow More Than 20% in 2016 (ID)

PTPP optimists that the financial performance next year will be better than this year, with projected growth in revenue and net

profit above 20%. To support the expansion in 2016, PTPP allocated capital expenditure of about Rp2.5 trillion, higher than this

year's capex amounted Rp1.8 trillion. Previously, PTPP reportedly explore around Rp4 trillion of bank loans for next year. The

loan will be used for working capital needs around Rp6-7 trillion in 2016.

MARKET NEWS

Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2015

Danareksa Universe 2,652,745 184,038 200,396 286.2 311.6 3% 9% 14.4 13.2 11.9 11.1 2.4 2.1 17.6

Auto 254,050 24,706 29,222 452.6 535.3 15% 18% 10.3 8.7 8.5 7.4 1.8 1.6 18.6

Astra International HOLD 6,000 8,300 242,901 23,976 28,096 592 694 497 567 16% 17% 10.1 8.6 8.7 7.4 1.8 1.6 33.5 19.1

Gajah Tunggal BUY 515 1,500 1,795 266 633 76 182 140 127 -1% 138% 6.7 2.8 4.2 4.1 0.3 0.3 95.0 4.4

Selamat Sempurna BUY 4,705 5,300 6,774 465 493 323 342 332 352 19% 6% 14.6 13.7 8.8 8.2 4.7 3.9 net cash 36.0

Banks 925,046 73,678 79,865 683.9 741.3 -1% 8% 12.6 11.6 2.2 1.9 19.0

BCA BUY 13,175 15,425 324,830 18,062 19,792 724 794 724 794 8% 10% 18.2 16.6 NA NA 3.6 3.0 NA 21.4

BNI BUY 4,880 5,850 91,005 7,506 8,596 402 461 402 461 -30% 15% 12.1 10.6 NA NA 1.4 1.3 NA 12.1

BRI BUY 11,100 13,400 273,828 24,352 25,863 987 1,048 987 1,048 0% 6% 11.2 10.6 NA NA 2.4 2.0 NA 23.0

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,300 1,450 13,757 1,588 1,964 151 187 151 187 42% 24% 8.6 6.9 NA NA 1.0 0.9 NA 12.4

Bank Mandiri BUY 8,875 11,450 207,083 20,144 21,413 863 918 863 918 1% 6% 10.3 9.7 NA NA 1.7 1.5 NA 18.2

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BUY 2,490 4,500 14,542 2,026 2,237 347 383 347 383 8% 10% 7.2 6.5 NA NA 1.1 0.9 NA 15.8

Cement 149,077 9,522 9,566 991 995 -13% 0% 15.7 15.6 9.9 9.5 2.7 2.5 17.6

Indocement HOLD 22,450 21,000 82,644 4,915 4,919 1,335 1,336 1,305 1,306 -9% 0% 16.8 16.8 10.6 10.3 2.8 2.7 net cash 16.9

Semen Indonesia BUY 11,200 12,300 66,433 4,608 4,648 777 784 761 767 -17% 1% 14.4 14.3 9.1 8.8 2.6 2.4 5.1 18.4

Construction 104,834 4,375 5,514 100 126 19% 26% 24.0 19.0 11.4 9.6 2.8 2.4 13.8

Jasa Marga BUY 5,050 8,000 34,340 1,531 1,779 480 614 513 657 19% 28% 10.5 8.2 12.0 10.7 2.8 2.5 95.8 12.8

Wijaya Karya HOLD 2,600 2,900 15,988 584 741 95 120 100 126 -5% 27% 27.4 21.6 11.3 9.1 2.9 2.6 28.8 11.1

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,715 4,700 17,990 635 857 131 177 138 185 19% 35% 28.3 21.0 10.9 8.9 4.9 3.4 25.6 20.9

Adhi Karya BUY 2,110 2,750 7,513 397 556 111 156 123 169 22% 40% 18.9 13.5 6.9 6.8 1.6 1.4 net cash 12.1

Waskita Karya BUY 1,620 2,150 21,987 833 1,089 61 80 61 80 19% 31% 26.4 20.2 14.1 10.7 2.5 2.2 net cash 14.2

Wika Beton HOLD 805 1,350 7,016 396 491 45 56 46 57 32% 24% 17.7 14.3 8.9 7.1 2.8 2.4 net cash 17.1

Consumer 408,911 13,419 14,186 488 516 7% 6% 30.5 28.8 18.0 17.0 7.2 6.0 25.9

Indofood CBP BUY 13,050 13,800 76,094 3,033 3,308 520 567 520 567 16% 9% 25.1 23.0 17.3 16.3 4.8 4.3 net cash 20.3

Indofood BUY 4,955 7,100 43,507 3,704 4,059 422 462 563 610 -5% 10% 11.7 10.7 5.5 5.3 1.5 1.4 19.5 13.8

Unilever SELL 36,650 30,475 279,640 5,889 6,234 772 817 772 817 3% 6% 47.5 44.9 32.6 31.0 27.4 17.1 net cash 80.4

Nippon Indosari Corpindo BUY 1,255 1,680 6,353 266 309 53 61 53 61 41% 16% 23.9 20.5 13.6 11.0 5.3 4.4 59.5 24.7

Mandom BUY 16,500 21,170 3,318 526 276 2,618 1,375 279 1,373 202% -47% 6.3 12.0 7.0 6.1 2.0 1.9 net cash 35.7

Healthcare 108,781 2,981 3,387 211 266 20% 26% 36.5 32.1 23.0 19.6 6.3 5.6 18.6

Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,245 1,355 58,360 2,040 2,274 44 49 43 49 -1% 12% 28.6 25.7 18.6 16.2 5.6 5.0 net cash 20.6

Kimia Farma BUY 840 1,200 4,665 259 303 47 55 42 47 12% 17% 17.9 15.3 11.9 10.4 2.4 2.2 0.7 13.9

Siloam Hospital HOLD 9,875 10,500 11,416 93 134 80 116 84 127 49% 44% 122.8 85.4 22.2 17.1 6.5 6.1 16.1 5.5

Mitra Keluarga BUY 2,360 2,995 34,340 589 676 40 46 40 45 14% 15% 58.3 50.8 52.3 44.4 10.3 9.3 net cash 22.9

Heavy Equipment 58,104 5,973 6,297 1,307 1,378 7% 5% 9.7 9.2 4.3 3.5 1.4 1.2 14.6

Hexindo Adiperkasa HOLD 1,230 3,650 1,033 220 260 262 309 238 273 13% 18% 4.7 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.4 net cash 8.0

United Tractors HOLD 15,300 18,500 57,071 5,753 6,037 1,542 1,619 1,542 1,619 7% 5% 9.9 9.5 4.4 3.6 1.4 1.3 net cash 15.1

Mining 60,329 6,596 5,629 83 71 -20% -15% 9.1 10.7 3.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 6.5

Adaro Energy BUY 500 750 15,993 2,249 1,577 70 49 70 49 9% -30% 7.1 10.1 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.4 32.0 6.4

Timah BUY 480 850 3,575 157 237 21 32 21 32 -75% 51% 22.7 15.1 5.8 5.4 0.7 0.6 24.9 2.9

Vale Indonesia BUY 1,480 3,700 14,706 1,386 1,790 140 180 140 180 -36% 29% 10.6 8.2 3.5 2.9 0.7 0.6 net cash 6.2

Aneka Tambang BUY 304 472 7,305 (698) (112) (73) (12) (73) (12) -6% -84% (4.2) (25.8) 12.3 9.5 0.4 0.4 13.3 -4.8

Bukit Asam BUY 4,575 7,800 10,541 1,970 1,445 906 665 906 665 -2% -27% 5.0 6.9 3.4 4.7 1.1 1.0 net cash 21.4

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 5,650 7,300 6,384 1,504 814 1,331 720 1,331 720 -28% -46% 4.2 7.8 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 net cash 14.1

Harum Energy HOLD 675 790 1,825 28 (123) 10 (45) 10 (45) 471% -540% 65.5 (14.9) 4.1- 9.0 0.5 0.5 net cash 0.8

Plantation 41,331 5,510 5,938 211 227 11% 8% 7.5 7.0 4.2 3.7 1.1 1.0 14.9

Astra Agro Lestari BUY 15,500 27,100 24,409 2,770 2,832 1,759 1,798 1,759 1,798 4% 2% 8.8 8.6 5.2 4.8 2.1 1.9 net cash 24.5

Sampoerna Agro BUY 1,635 2,600 3,090 464 550 245 291 253 299 18% 19% 6.7 5.6 4.5 3.8 0.9 0.8 31.8 14.5

PP London Sumatra HOLD 1,260 2,090 8,597 1,055 1,133 155 166 155 166 8% 7% 8.1 7.6 3.9 3.2 1.1 1.0 net cash 13.9

Salim Ivomas Pratama BUY 331 850 5,235 1,221 1,423 77 90 87 98 33% 17% 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.6 0.3 0.3 37.6 8.2

Property 94,343 8,896 10,205 87 99 -10% 15% 10.6 9.2 9.4 8.2 1.9 1.6 18.8

Alam Sutera BUY 340 700 6,681 1,254 1,516 64 77 73 85 15% 21% 5.3 4.4 6.3 5.2 0.9 0.8 75.3 18.9

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,740 2,100 33,489 2,369 2,617 135 150 140 156 -36% 10% 12.8 11.6 11.2 9.9 2.2 1.9 net cash 16.6

Metropolitan Land BUY 219 620 1,676 290 322 38 43 38 43 14% 11% 5.7 5.2 4.5 4.2 0.8 0.7 27.7 14.2

Surya Semesta Internusa HOLD 705 1,040 3,317 464 415 99 88 103 93 32% -11% 7.1 8.0 3.0 3.0 1.1 1.0 net cash 16.9

Lippo Karawaci BUY 1,035 1,200 23,885 1,565 1,763 72 82 58 64 -38% 13% 14.3 12.7 11.0 9.4 1.5 1.4 27.3 10.1

PP Properti BUY 178 242 2,500 1,626 1,963 21 26 22 28 172% 27% 8.7 6.8 6.0 5.7 1.1 1.0 8.8 100.6

Summarecon BUY 1,580 2,045 22,794 1,327 1,609 92 111 92 111 -5% 21% 17.2 14.2 12.6 10.4 4.6 3.7 57.1 29.6

Telco & Infrastructure 462,732 19,313 22,528 141 165 28% 17% 24.0 20.5 6.8 6.2 3.8 3.5 17.0

XL Axiata BUY 3,765 4,710 32,158 356 680 42 80 42 80 -140% 91% 90.1 47.2 6.0 5.5 2.2 2.1 120.7 2.5

Indosat BUY 5,650 4,200 30,702 312 588 57 108 38 89 -152% 89% 98.4 52.2 4.6 4.2 1.9 1.9 132.4 2.0

Telkom HOLD 3,110 3,050 313,488 15,554 16,458 158 168 158 168 6% 6% 19.6 18.6 6.3 5.9 4.3 4.0 net cash 22.1

Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 4,750 4,600 48,464 1,585 2,040 155 200 158 202 89% 29% 30.6 23.8 14.5 12.1 7.9 6.2 108.8 29.2

Tower Bersama HOLD 5,925 8,600 28,419 1,528 2,387 300 429 300 429 9% 43% 19.7 13.8 12.1 9.6 2.4 2.0 129.0 19.3

MNC Sky Vision HOLD 1,345 1,230 9,501 (22) 375 (3) 53 (2) 1 -86% -1776% (425.1) 25.4 9.6 8.4 5.9 4.8 162.0 -1.4

Tranportation 17,890 1,253 1,554 501 621 62% 24% 14.3 11.5 8.0 6.5 4.0 3.2 32.4

Blue Bird BUY 7,150 12,200 17,890 1,253 1,554 501 621 488 608 62% 24% 14.3 11.5 8.0 6.5 4.0 3.2 43.9 32.4

Utility 69,210 11,088 10,313 457 425 3% -7% 6.2 6.7 4.2 4.5 1.7 1.5 28.7

PGN BUY 2,855 6,650 69,210 11,088 10,313 457 425 5,775 5,313 3% -7% 6.2 6.7 4.2 4.5 1.7 1.5 net cash 28.7

Retail 24,778 961 1,135 37 44 -2% 18% 25.8 21.8 11.0 9.7 2.7 2.5 11.0

Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 3,710 4,650 6,159 161 275 97 166 107 175 117% 71% 38.2 22.4 7.3 6.3 1.9 1.8 72.4 5.6

Ramayana SELL 630 660 4,470 243 255 34 36 34 36 -31% 5% 18.4 17.5 8.8 8.0 1.3 1.3 net cash 7.2

Ace Hardware HOLD 825 745 14,149 557 604 32 35 31 34 0% 9% 25.4 23.4 17.8 16.1 5.4 4.8 net cash 22.4

ROENet Gearing PBV (x)Equity

Valuation Rating Price (Rp)

Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x)Core EPS (Rp)

Equity Research



LEADERS Price as on

Code 23-Dec-2015 22-Dec-2015 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR 4,750 4,525 5.0 5.6 13.1 14.5 BUY

Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA 705 680 3.7 21.6 23.7 (34.1) HOLD

Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,855 2,755 3.6 13.5 (3.1) (52.4) BUY

Siloam Hospital SILO 9,875 9,650 2.3 (0.3) 1.0 (27.9) HOLD

Semen Indonesia SMGR 11,200 10,975 2.1 6.2 1.6 (30.9) BUY

Ace Hardware ACES 825 810 1.9 7.8 2.5 5.1 HOLD

Blue Bird BIRD 7,150 7,025 1.8 2.1 2.9 (24.1) BUY

Vale Indonesia INCO 1,480 1,460 1.4 (4.2) (13.2) (59.2) BUY

Indosat ISAT 5,650 5,575 1.3 8.7 3.7 39.5 BUY

Tower Bersama TBIG 5,925 5,850 1.3 (1.3) (10.9) (38.9) HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on

Code 23-Dec-2015 22-Dec-2015 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Kimia Farma KAEF 840 865 (2.9) - (13.4) (42.7) BUY

Metropolitan Land MTLA 219 225 (2.7) 6.8 1.4 (50.3) BUY

Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,245 1,275 (2.4) 0.4 (8.5) (32.0) HOLD

Mitra Keluarga MIKA 2,360 2,400 (1.7) (1.5) (4.1) 38.8 BUY

Bukit Asam PTBA 4,575 4,650 (1.6) (2.9) (22.1) (63.4) BUY

Astra Agro Lestari AALI 15,500 15,725 (1.4) (4.3) (14.2) (36.1) BUY

Astra International ASII 6,000 6,075 (1.2) (4.4) (3.6) (19.2) HOLD

Waskita Karya WSKT 1,620 1,640 (1.2) (1.5) (4.1) 13.1 BUY

Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI 1,255 1,270 (1.2) 6.8 (2.3) (9.4) BUY

United Tractors UNTR 15,300 15,475 (1.1) (3.2) (8.1) (11.8) HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Equity Research



WEEKLY LEADERS

Price as on

Code 28-Dec-2015 21-Dec-2015 w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA 705 580 21.6 23.7 (34.1) HOLD

Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,855 2,515 13.5 (3.1) (52.4) BUY

Indocement INTP 22,450 20,500 9.5 12.3 (10.2) HOLD

Indosat ISAT 5,650 5,200 8.7 3.7 39.5 BUY

Ace Hardware ACES 825 765 7.8 2.5 5.1 HOLD

Summarecon SMRA 1,580 1,470 7.5 2.3 3.9 BUY

Metropolitan Land MTLA 219 205 6.8 1.4 (50.3) BUY

Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI 1,255 1,175 6.8 (2.3) (9.4) BUY

Jasa Marga JSMR 5,050 4,755 6.2 5.0 (28.4) BUY

Semen Indonesia SMGR 11,200 10,550 6.2 1.6 (30.9) BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

WEEKLY LAGGARDS

Price as on

Code 28-Dec-2015 21-Dec-2015 w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Lippo Karawaci LPKR 1,035 1,135 (8.8) (22.5) 1.5 BUY

Astra International ASII 6,000 6,275 (4.4) (3.6) (19.2) HOLD

Astra Agro Lestari AALI 15,500 16,200 (4.3) (14.2) (36.1) BUY

Vale Indonesia INCO 1,480 1,545 (4.2) (13.2) (59.2) BUY

Wika Beton WTON 805 840 (4.2) (11.5) (38.1) HOLD

Selamat Sempurna SMSM 4,705 4,905 (4.1) (3.5) (0.9) BUY

Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA 1,230 1,280 (3.9) (23.1) (64.9) HOLD

Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 331 344 (3.8) (13.4) (53.0) BUY

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 5,650 5,850 (3.4) (19.6) (63.3) HOLD

United Tractors UNTR 15,300 15,800 (3.2) (8.1) (11.8) HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

WEEKLY COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Equity Research



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