From governance scenarios to climate actionInsights from scenario-guided policy development across six global regions

Joost Vervoort – Environmental Change Institute, University of OxfordCGIAR program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityFuture Earth “Seeds of a Good Anthropocene”FP7 TRANSMANGOH2020 SUSFANS

Linking scenarios and policy

• Scenarios can be a powerful approach for exploring futures in complex systems

• However, scenarios are not strategies – adaptation to what?

• Need to integrate scenarios with policy and governance processes

The CCAFS scenarios project

Eastern AfricaWestern Africa

Southeast AsiaCentral

America

Andes Region

South Asia

CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: CC and ag policies, practices and measures

– facilitating climate smart agriculture and food systems

CCAFS scenarios project• Regional socio-economic and climate

scenarios • Stakeholder-driven; quantified IMPACT

(IFPRI) & GLOBIOM(IIASA); linked to SSPs/RCPs• With 240 partner organisations FAO, UNEP

WCMC, Oxfam, regional and national stakeholders

• Goal: guide policy development at national and regional levels + guide global development organisations

(Vermeulen et al. 2013, Chaudhury et al. 2013, Vervoort et al. 2014)

A B C D

A1 B1 C1 D1

A2 B2 C2 D2

A3 B3 C3 D3

FACTORS,STATES

COMPATIBILITY

B1 B2 B3

A1 2 0 1

A2 1 1 1

A3 2 0 2

SCENARIOS(A2,B2,C2,D1)(A1,B3,C1,D3)(A3,B3,C2,D3)

FINALSCENARIOS

(A2,B2,C2,D1)(A1,B3,C1,D3)(A3,B3,C2,D3)

10000s of ways

(A2,B1,C2,D1)

Choose4,6,8..

MATLAB program (OLDFAR)

Multiple factors, multiple states: Andes

Sugarcane yields under four climate models and “no climate change” for five socio-economic scenarios for South Asia, indexed to 2010

Developing vs. using scenarios

Vervoort et al. Global Environmental Change 2014

Two approaches:• 1. start with plan,

develop scenarios; test across scenarios (Honduras)

• 2. Develop scenarios, develop plans in individual scenarios, test across scenarios (Bangladesh)

Draft plan Test plan in scenarios

Develop scenarios

Robust plan

Develop scenarios

ScenariosInspire plan elements

Test elements across scenarios

Robust plan

Case studies• Honduras: SAG Agricultural

CC adaptation plan. Started with incomplete draft, scenario review and deep changes, now regional implementation + interest throughout government

• Cambodia: CCPAP. Southeast Asia scenarios long collaborative process + internal training public consultations implementation

Case studies• Bangladesh: 7th FYP.

Generating ideas for strengthening broad country strategy.

• Tanzania: multiple rounds of reviews

• Burkina Faso: integration of science and policy agendas

• Ghana: multi-level integration

• Colombia: last-minute changes

Case studiesKey factors: • Focusing on specific policies • Trust, timing, openness• Full policy formulation process, and

beyond• Flexibility and credibility of the

scenarios• Rapid development of new relationships • Informing process outsiders

Games & scenarios• Integrating decision-making and

governance dynamically into scenarios

• Using participatory game design • Games - participatory system

models + the benefits of identification and immersion

• Scenarios can be explored dynamically; multiple perspectives

• Bridge power gapsNils Ferrand’s work

• Vermeulen, S. J., A. J. Challinor, P. K. Thornton, B. M. Campbell, N. Eriyagama, J. M. Vervoort, J. Kinyangi, A. Jarvis, P. Läderach, J. Ramirez-Villegas, K. J. Nicklin, E. Hawkins, and D. R. Smith. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110:8357-8362.

• Vervoort, J. M., ., P. Thornton, P. Kristjanson, W. Förch, P. J. Ericksen, K. Kok, J. S. I. Ingram, M. Herrero, A. Palazzo, A. E. S. Helfgott, A. Wilkinson, P. Havlík, ., D. Mason-D'Croz, and C. Jost. 2014. Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change.

• Chaudhury, M., J. Vervoort, P. Kristjanson, P. Ericksen, and A. Ainslie. 2013. Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa. Regional Environmental Change 13:389-398.

• http://ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios - look for blogs and video - Joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk