from the early adopter’s dilemma to the game of gigs: building the information rich commons blair...
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From the Early Adopter’s Dilemma to the Game of Gigs:Building the Information Rich
Commons
Blair LevinBrookings Institute
Metropolitan Policy ProjectKansas City – Gigabit City Summit
January 13, 2014
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The Arc of History
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You Are Here
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A Commons in Our Time
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What assets would be critical for economic and social progress in the
decades ahead?
Known• Water? • Electrical?
Unknown• Distribution Center?• Airport?• Technology Focused University?
City Thinking in 1914
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The Future
Economic value creation, which for several millennium was based on the manipulation
and distribution of physical objects, increasingly will be based on manipulating,
transporting, and analyzing bits of information.
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What assets will be critical for economic and social progress in the decades
ahead?
Known• Ubiquitous, affordable and abundant bandwidth
networks• Device, Sensor and M2M networks that provide
actionable intelligence • A digitally ready population and digitally ready
city government
City Thinking in 2014
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The Information
Rich Commons
Bandwidth• Never a constraint to
innovation, economic growth, social progress
Tools• Ubiquitous, cheap,
smart sensors providing actionable intelligence
People• A digital ready
population • A digital ready city
government
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The Information
Rich Commons
Networks• Gigabit Fiber• Muni Wi-Fi
Devices• The Internet of Things• Open Data• Big Data
People• Universal Affordable
Access• Digital Readiness• Responsive
Government
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The Information
Rich City
Networks• Gigabit Fiber• Muni Wi-Fi
Devices• The Internet of Things• Open Data• Big Data
People• Universal affordable
access• Digital Readiness• Responsive
Government
Today’s Focus
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Prediction:In Five Years There Will be Two Kinds of Cities
Cites with Cable v. Copper
Cities with Cable v.
Fiber
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Prediction:In Five Years There Will be Two Kinds of Cities
Cites with Cable v. Copper
Cities with Cable v.
Fiber
Housing
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Early Data: Increases Housing Values
The Impact of High-speed Broadband Availability on Real Estate Values: Evidence from United States Property Markets
By Molnar, Savage & SickerUniversity of Colorado, August 15, 2013
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Prediction:In Five Years There Will be Two Kinds of Cities
Cites with Cable v. Copper
Cities with Cable v.
Fiber
Economic Attractiveness
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Early Data: Increases Attractiveness as Business Location
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Prediction:In Five Years There Will be Two Kinds of Cities
Cites with Cable v. Copper
Cities with Cable v.
Fiber
GDP Growth
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Early Data: Increases GDP
“Our study suggests that communities where gigabit broadband was widely available enjoyed higher GDP, relative to similar communities where gigabit broadband was not widely available. The 14 communities with widely available gigabit broadband that we studied enjoyed over $1 billion in additional GDP when gigabit broadband became widely available, relative to communities where gigabit broadband was not widely available.”
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The Early Adopter’s Dilemma:No Map of Path to the New World
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Two Questions
What Networks will Market Forces, Left Alone, Produce?
What Have Municipal Efforts To Date Produced?
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Topics for Today
What Networks will Market Forces, Left Alone, Produce?
What Have Municipal Efforts To Date Produced?
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In the Summer of 2009, the National Broadband Plan Team asked CITI to provide a report on all publicly announced broadband
deployments for the years ahead
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The Data was Deadly
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For the First Time Since the Beginning of the Commercial Internet there was no National Carrier with Plans to Deploy a Better Network
than the Current Best Available Network
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Report suggested, and experience confirmed, current market forces would not drive deployment of world leading wireline networks in the U.S.
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For 85% of the Country, Cable had the Faster Network and the Cheapest Upgrade Path
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The Future Looked Like a Cable v. Copper Competition that would be Premised on Allocating Scare Bandwidth Instead of Building on
Technological Advances to Deploy Abundant Bandwidth
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Cable v. Copper
Business Model: Allocating Scarce Bandwidth
Consequence for Innovation:Buffering drives desire for higher priced tiers; therefore upgrades follow innovation
Core Proposition:Harvesting from Past Investment
Cable v. Fiber
Business Model: Deploying Abundant Bandwidth
Consequence for Innovation:Scales to higher levels of video (4k, 8k), thereby upgrades enable innovation of higher performance knowledge exchange.
Core Proposition: Future Proof
How do we move from here
to here?
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The Prisoners’ Dilemma
A Way to Understand the
Challenge
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The Prisoners’ Dilemma
The Prisoners Are Both Better Off if They Trust Each Other Not to Confess
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The Prisoners’ Dilemma
The Prisoners Are Both Better Off if They Trust Each Other Not to Confess
The Cops’ Mission is to cause a “Defection”
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The Prisoners’ Dilemma
Substitute the Idea of Investing in Next Generation Deployments for Confessing and Harvesting Sunk Costs for Staying Quiet
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The Prisoners’ Dilemma
Cable and Telcos Are Both Better Off if They Trust Each Other Not to Deploy NG Networks
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The Regulator’s Dilemma
How to Cause a Defection?
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Topics for Today
What Networks will Market Forces, Left Alone, Produce?
What Have Municipal Efforts To Date Produced?
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Three Different Drivers
Supply Side Driven(Google Fiber v.
Incumbents)
Demand Side Driven
(Gig.U, etc.)
Small Cities(Federal Money,
Market Structure Driven)
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C + O > (1-r)R + SB + (-CL)
C – Capital ExpendituresO– Operating Expendituresr – RiskR- RevenuesSB- System Benefits (Benefits that drive increased revenues outside the communities where the new or incremental investments are made.)CL- Losses due to competition
Currently, the private investment equation usually looks like this:
Current Math: Returns Do Not Justify the Investment
Costs Benefits
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C + O < (1-r)R + SB + (-CL)
But how do we do that?
The path forward: change the math
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Reduce CapEx, OpEx, risk
Use Existing Assets More
Effectively
Reduce CapEx, OpEx, risk
Regulatory Flexibility and
Efficiency
Reduce risk and raise revenues
Aggregate Demand
Key Strategies
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• Build to Demand Model• Access to ROWs, Facilities• Reduce Regulatory Time
Reduce Cap Ex
• Access Payments• Reduce Ongoing Regulatory Costs• Utilize Existing Billing Platforms
Reduce Op Ex
• Build to Demand• Standardize Functions Across Areas,
VendorsReduce Risk
• Demand Aggregation• Marketing Platform• New Services
Increase Revenues
• Distributed Innovation• Seeding Long-Term Growth
Increase Ecosystem Benefits
Tactics within existing powers of communities
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Google Starts Spreading Information
Commissioned by GooglePublished 2013
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Winston-Salem*AugustaDallasFort LauderdaleGreensboroJacksonvilleHoustonMiamiOaklandChicago*
AustinKansas CityRaleigh-Durham*CharlotteNashvilleAtlanta*San AntonioSan Jose
Provo
Seattle*DenverSioux FallsSpokaneTucson*Columbia
Phoenix*
Las VegasOmaha
The Unfolding “Game of Gigs”(as of August 5, 2014)
*Gig.U Community**Note: Cox plans to eventually build a gigabit throughout its footprint, but is starting with these cities.***Category not comprehensive
Independent Projects***
Cleveland*San Francisco
ChattanoogaLeverettLongmontWilsonUrbana-Champaign*Gainesville*BurlingtonBristolChanuteBlacksburg*
St. LouisSan Diego
Los Angeles
Salt Lake CityPortland
Jefferson CityColorado SpringsAlbuquerque*Minneapolis - St. Paul
Orlando
**
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But what about those communities who are not on Google’s Map?
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GIG.U FALL 2014 STATUS CHARTUniversity Community State Method StatusVirginia Tech Blacksburg VA PPP Downtown Gig ZoneMichigan State East Lansing MI PPP Local ISP OfferingU of Florida Gainesville FL Local Utility Innovation Zone Network BuiltU of Louisville Louisville KY RFP 3 New Entrants Building Gig NetworksU of Kentucky Lexington KY RFP PendingTexas A&M College Station TX RFP Incumbent upgrade to GigU of NC Chapel Hill NC NCNGN Deal with T, Negotiating with GFNC State U Raleigh NC NCNGN Deal with T, Negotiating with GFDuke U Durham NC NCNGN Deal with T, Negotiating with GFWake U Wake-Forest NC NCNGN Deal with TASU Phoenix AZ GF Negotiating with GFGeorgia Tech Atlanta GA GF Negotiating with GFU of Chicago Chicago IL Legal Reform Telco Upgrading Network
U of CT Storrs, New Haven, others CT State RFP RFP in Process
U of Missouri Columbia MO RFP Developing RFPU of Montana Missoula MT Study Study Complete; developing responseU of New Mexico Albuquerque NM RFP Developing RFPU of Ill Cham/Urbana IL RFP Local ISP Developing NetworkCase Western Shaker Heights OH PPP Pilot ProjectU of WV Morganton WV PPP Spectrum Based Pilot OperationalU of Washington Seattle WA Legal Reform Telco Upgrading NetworkU of Maine Orono ME PPP In Discussions, Spin Off Projects
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Zone• Cleveland
• Beta Block• Blacksburg
• Gigabit WiFi Zone
• Morgantown• Transit Areas
Using White Spaces
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Zone (Cleveland, Blacksburg and Morgantown)
District• Gainesville
• Innovation District in Partnership with University, Utility, and Real Estate Developers
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Zone (Cleveland, Blacksburg and Morgantown)
District (Gainesville)
Neighborhoods and City• Lansing
• Community Strategies
• Louisville• RFP with Three
Providers• Champaign-
Urbana• RFP with Single
Provider
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Zone (Cleveland, Blacksburg and Morgantown)
District (Gainesville)
Neighborhoods and City (Lansing, Louisville, and Champaign-Urbana)
Region• North Carolina
NGN• Joint RFP with Six
Communities and Four Universities
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Zone (Cleveland, Blacksburg and Morgantown)
District (Gainesville)
Neighborhoods and City (Lansing, Louisville, and Champaign-Urbana)
Region (North Carolina NGN)
State• Connecticut
• RFI Organized by Major Cities in which All Communities are Invited to Participate
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Zone (Cleveland, Blacksburg and Morgantown)
District (Gainesville)
Neighborhoods and City (Lansing, Louisville, and Champaign-Urbana)
Region (North Carolina NGN)
State (Connecticut)
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Key Question for City Officials
Are the Networks Serving Your Community Today
Sufficient for Ten Years from Now?
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Three Key Insights
1. Everything that happens in your city ten years from now will be enhanced or degraded depending on the
quality of the networks.
2. Many things you are doing today or will do in the next few years will affect the quality of the networks you
have ten years from now.
3. Broadband is bought as a community. While Individuals think they make a choice, the choice is predetermined by choices the community makes.
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86% of the experts
believe there will be “new, unique and
compelling technology
applications that capitalize on
significant increases in bandwidth in the
United States by 2025.”
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Bottom Line
Cities with Cable v. Fiber
Cities with Cable v. Copper
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Thank You