fsnau-post-deyr-2012-13-analysis-presentation- final1

Post Deyr 2012/13

February 1st, 2013

Information for Better Livelihoods

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and CooperaHon SDC

Donors Technical Partner

FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline

FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012

Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012

Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012

Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013

All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013

Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013

Release of Results

Post-Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and Technical Release February 1, 2013

Regional Presentations in Somalia February 2013

Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013

FSNAU Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Partner Par:cipa:on

Analysis Workshop – Total 29

FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 WFP 5 HADMA 2 FAO Pales:ne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland) 15

Total Number of Partners Par:cipa:ng in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and VeVng – Total‐133

Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61

Na:onal Ins:tu:ons 2 Local NGOs 11 Interna:onal NGOs 7 Ministries 12 FEWS NET 3 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15

Nutri:on Field Assessment – Total 28

Local NGOs 3 Interna:onal NGOs 4 Ministries 16 Local Authori:es 3 UN 2

Nutri:on VeVng – Total 15 Local NGOs 9 Interna:onal NGOs 4 UN 2

Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Loca:ons

FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment

Food Security Post‐Deyr 2012/13 Informa:on Sources Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data

Region

FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD

Bari 64 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Mudug 60 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ South Mudug 40 12 18 Galgadud 62 18 143 Hiran 63 18 18 M. Shabelle 59 17 18 L. Shabelle 98 18 ‐ Bay 60 18 18 Bakool 63 18 _ Gedo 85 18 18 M. Juba 59 18 ‐ L. Juba 54 18 ‐ Total 928 173 233

Region FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12)

Urban IDP Se^lement Bari 451 974 Nugal & North Mudug 938 1,418

Awdal/Galbeed 900 947

Togdher 451 490 Sool 425 ‐ Sanaag 433 ‐ Banadir 450 750

4,048 4,579

Secondary Sources:

•  Satellite Imagery Data •  SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use

•  SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges

•  Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data •  Rural Market Monitoring data

•  Port and Cross‐border trade StaHsHcs

•  Livelihood baseline studies

•  UNHCR IDP populaHon esHmates

Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender

Urban Surveys:

  581 males and 2,991 females.

  HHs categories‐Urban North:

o  2,059 HHs dependent on men

o  1,021 HHs dependent on women

o  469 HHs dependent on both women and men

IDP se^lements:

  3,068 HHs dependent on both men and women

  632 HHs dependent on women

  547 HHs dependent on men

 For meaningful gender results, HHs have been grouped into three fundamental categories:

 Households dependent on men or man for food or income to buy food.

 Households dependent on women or woman for food or income to buy food.

 Households dependent on both woman and man for food or income to buy food.

Nutri:on Informa:on Sources Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

Region Rural livelihood surveys conducted

Urban livelihood surveys conducted

IDP surveys conducted

Total No. of Surveys

Northwest, northeast

9 (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley, E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE

7 (Awdal, W. Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugal,

7 (Hargeisa, Burao, Berbera, Bossaso, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo)

23

Central 2 (Hawd, Addun)

2 (Mudug, Galgadud)

1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5

South 7 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, agro‐past. and riverine)

2 (Mog, Afgoye)

5 (Mogadishu, Kismayo, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa)

14

Total 18 11 13 42

  42 Nutri:on Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 )

  Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1)   Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health faciliHes in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec’12.

  Related Selec:ve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies

  Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deteriora:on) •  WHO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013)

•  Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bulleHns).

CLIMATE Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance

TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec)

Source : JRC TAMSAT

Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribuHon, and spaHal coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall esHmates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country

Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013.

Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag, Sool regions, and north Gedo and Lower Juba agropastoral;

Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions;

Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late October in Garowe and Eyl Districts.

Overall Statement:

Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condiHons, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are sHll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed.

CLIMATE Vegeta:on Condi:ons in the Deyr 2012 Season

Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET

NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012

CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal

to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM)

ECMWF’s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): Jan- Mar. 2013

1.  Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1o to +2oC) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia.

2.  Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia.

ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar - May 2013

CIVIL INSECURITY

Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South-Central.

Key Events and Impacts:  Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas  Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central  Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North (Huddun/ Sool)  Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac & Awdal (Dec ‘12)  Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle regions affecting trade and population movements  Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu  Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other countries  Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central

Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013:  Increased government offensive in other parts of the South; restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas

MARKETS Trends in Exchange Rates

  Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, parHcularly in Northeast (22%)

  Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate depreciaHon (15%) in value since Dec ‘11.

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

SlSh

per

US

Dol

lar

SoSh

per

US

Dol

lar

Month

Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa

Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

MARKETS

Import commodity prices: • Stable prices since July 2012 in the South; • Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central due to relaHvely stronger shilling • Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to steady supply through Berbera Port.

Factors Affec:ng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012)

• Decreasing local food prices • Improved Mogadishu port acHviHes • Improving security • Stable SoSh

Imported Commodi:es (Diesel Price)

MARKETS

Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Pric

e pe

r Litr

e (S

LSH

)

Pric

e pe

r Litr

e (S

oSH

)

Month

Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH)

Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest

Imported Commodi:es (Rice)

Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000 D

ec-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Pric

e pe

r Kg(

SLS

H)

Pric

e pe

r Kg

(SoS

H)

Month

Regional Trends in Rice Prices (SOSH/SLSH)


MARKETS

Imported Commodi:es (Sugar Price)

MARKETS

Comparison of Sugar Prices: Interna:onal (ISO), Mogadishu and Bossaso

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Pric

e pe

r Kg

(SLS

H)

Pric

e pe

r Kg

(SoS

H)

Month

Regional Trends in Sugar Prices (SOSH/SLSH)


Imported Commodi:es (Veg. Oil and Wheat Flour Price)

MARKETS

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Pric

e pe

r Litr

e (S

LSH

)

Pric

e pe

r Litr

e (S

oSH

)

Month

Regional Trends in Vegetable Oil Prices (SOSH/SLSH)


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Pric

e pe

r Kg

(SLS

H)

Pric

e pe

r Kg

(SoS

H)

Month

Regional Trends in Wheat Flour Prices (SOSH/SLSH)


Consumer Price Index MARKETS

•  Slight decline in CPI rates (7%) in SoSh regions. The CPI is stable in northwestern parts of the country.

•  Significant decrease (24%) in annual inflation rates in the SoSh areas;

•  Factors driving down the cost of living in South-Central: o  Reduced local cereal (red

sorghum) prices o  Reduced/stable prices of

imported food

MARKETS Likely Developments (Jan‐June 2013)

• Staple cereal prices are expected to decline (seasonal trend) unHl March 2013 owing to increased supply from the recent Deyr harvest; o  Concerns: farm‐gate prices may not cover costs of producHon

• RelaHve stability across the country may sustain the strength of the SoSh, hence the stability in the price of food imports;

• An increase in cross border trade acHviHes is expected in light of the gradual improvements in the security situaHon and road networks (end of rainy season).

  Average to good rangeland condiHons (pasture and water) in most of the livelihoods except:

o  North: Sool Plateau of Sanaag and Nugaal Valley

o  South and Central: north Gedo, Coastal Deeh of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba (poor)

  Normal livestock migraHon in most livelihoods except in Sool Plateau and Nugaal valley

  Livestock migraHon is to remain within normal range in the South even in the condiHons of below normal Gu (current forecast)

Rangeland Condi:ons and Livestock Migra:on

o  Livestock body condi:on: Improved (average to good) across all the livelihoods, except in west Guban

o  Livestock prices: remained all Hme high and increasing trend

o  Produc:on and reproduc:on: Most of the livestock species are either in the gestaHon or lactaHon period, except in west Guban and parts of Sool and Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central)

o  Milk produc:on: Average in most of the livelihoods. ExcepHons are west Guban, Sool Plateau and parts of Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central regions)

o  Herd growth for the poor wealth: Increasing trends for all species but holding of small ruminants and camle among the poor is sHll below baseline levels in most of the pastoral livelihoods Poor sheep/goat Body condi:on, Guban, FSNAU, Dec’12

Good Camel Body condi:on, Addun, North Mudug, FSNAU, Dec’12

Regional Average Monthly Prices Ca^le (SoSh/SlSh)

Trends in Local Ca^le Prices

Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices LIVESTOCK

Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in the South (SOSH)

Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central Regions

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16 Pr

ice

per H

ead

of G

oat (

SOSH

) SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16 Pric

e pe

r Hea

d of

Goa

t (SL

SH)

Pric

e pe

r Hea

d of

Goa

t (SO

SH)

NE Central NW (SLSH)

LIVESTOCK

Monthly Trends in Fresh Camel Milk Prices (SoSh/SlSh)

Trends in Fresh Camel and Ca^le Milk Prices

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

SlSh per Litre

SoS

h pe

r Litr

e

Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley Central NE NW

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

SlSh per Litre

SoS

h pe

r Litr

e

Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley

Central NW

Monthly Trend in Fresh Ca^le Milk Prices (SoSh/ SlSh)

Trends in 2012 Livestock Exports Through Berbera & Bossaso

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900

Pric

e Pe

r Hea

d (U

S$)

Live

stoc

k Ex

port

s (H

eads

) Tho

usan

ds

Month

Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

Camel Exports Cattle Exports Shoats Exports Hargesia Price Galkayo Price Bossaso Price Burao Price

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Num

ber o

f Hea

ds

July-Dec Livestock Exports Jan-June Livestock Exports

5-year Average (2007-2011)

Total Annual Livestock Exports

AGRICULTURE Trends in Cereal Produc:on (South and Northwest)

Cereal ProducHon Trends in Northwest

Deyr Cereal ProducHon Trends in Southern Somalia

Annual Cereal ProducHon Trends in Southern Somalia 0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MT

Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MT

Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2010 2011 2012

MT

Maize Sorghum Pet Average

  South: Third highest Deyr cereal produc:on since 1995(144% of Deyr avg for 1995‐2011); sorghum and maize producHon of about 143,000MT

  Red sorghum represents over two‐thirds of the total producHon

  Northwest AP: Good Gu/Karan (73,000MT) producHon of cereals (104% of PET Avg: 2010‐2011);

 White sorghum accounts for 88% of the total cereal producHon

AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc:on in Southern Somalia

Regions Deyr Off‐Season Maize: March ‐ April 2013

Maize (MT) Total Cereal (MT)

Gedo 1000 1000

Total 1000 1000

Regions Deyr 2012 Produc:on in MT Deyr 2012 as % of

Deyr 2011

Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr

(1995‐2011)

Deyr 2012 as % of 5YR average (2007‐2011) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal

Bakool 1,000 8,000 9,000 78% 359% 222%

Bay 6,000 51,000 57,000 93% 172% 145%

Gedo 2,000 4,000 6,000 82% 107% 96%

Hiran 2,000 6,000 8,000 128% 123% 240%

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

4,000 3,000 7,000 107% 178% 154%

Juba Hoose (Lower)

2,000 0 2,000 220% 171% 302%

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)

10,000 7,000 17,000 70% 141% 157%

Shabelle Hoose (Lower)

20,000 17,000 37,000 55% 112% 145%

Deyr 2011Total 47,000 96,000 143,000 77% 146% 151%

AGRICULTURE Cereal Produc:on in Northwest

Gu‐Karan Cereal Produc:on Es:mates in Somaliland (North West)

Regions

Gu‐Karan 2012 Produc:on in MT

Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of Gu‐Karan 2011

Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of Gu‐Karan PWA

(1998‐2011)

Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of

5 year average

(2007‐2011) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal

Awdal 1,000 15,000 17,000 121% 311% 183%

Togdheer 0 4,000 4,000 572% 494% 279%

Woqooyi Galbeed

6,000 45,000 52,000 97% 272% 185%

Gu‐Karan 2012 Total 7,000 64,000 73,000 107% 288% 188%

Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc:on by Region Maize Produc:on Deyr 2012/13 by Region

AGRICULTURE Regional Cereal (Maize and Sorghum) Contribu:ons in Southern Somalia

Sorghum Produc:on Deyr 2012/13 by Region

Bakool 6%

Bay 40%

Gedo 4%

Hiraan 5%

Juba Dhexe(Middle)

5%

Juba Hoose(lower)

2% Shabelle Dhexe

(middle) 12%

Shabelle lower (hoose)

26% Bakool 2%

Bay 12%

Gedo 4%

Hiraan 4%

Juba Dhexe(Middl

e) 9%

Juba Hoose(lower

) 5%

Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 21% Shabelle

lower (hoose) 43%

Bakool 8%

Bay 54%

Gedo 4%

Hiraan 6%

Juba Dhexe(Middle

) 3%

Juba Hoose(lower)

0%

Shabelle Dhexe

(middle) 7%

Shabelle lower (hoose)

18%

AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Good Sorghum Crops

Good Sorghum Crops. KooHn, Wanlaweyn, L. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Good Sorghum Crop. Bulo Adde, Qansah Dheere, Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Good Maize Crop. Suryo, Garboharey, Gedo. FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Good Sorghum Crop Harvest. Dila, Baki, Awdal. FSNAU, Nov. 2012

AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Other Crop

Produc:on Es:mates in Somalia

Estimated 51,000MT of other crops:

 Rice (1,500MT) – Middle Shabelle

 Cowpea (15,000MT) – Central (38%); Bay (24%); Lower Shabelle (19%); the rest (M. Shabelle, Jubas, Bakool)

 Sesame (23,000MT) – L. Shabelle (46%); M. Juba (35%); the rest (Bay, L. Juba, M. Shabelle)

 Groundnut (2,000MT) – Bay

 Onions (7,500MT) - Hiran (94%); Gedo (6%)

 Watermelon (2,000MT) – Hiran (84%); Gedo (16%)

Good Sesame Crop. Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Good Groundnut Crop. Hagarkaa, Baidoa, Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012

AGRICULTURE Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and Agriculture Daily Rate

Trends in White Maize Prices [Shabelle & Juba Riverine] Trends in White Sorghum Prices [North West]

Trends in Red Sorghum Price [Sorghum Belt]

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

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Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

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Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

SoS

h

Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley

Trends in Agriculture Daily Labor Rate [Southern regions]

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Price pe

r Kg

(SOSH

)

Month

Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Price pe

r Kg

(SOSH

)

Month

Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg)

Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Price Pe

r Kg

(SLSH)

Month

Hargeisa (White Sorghum 1kg) Borama (White Sorghum 1kg)

Togwajale (White Sorghum 1kg) Burao (White Sorghum 1kg)

Projected Cereal Availability: 2013 Preliminary Cereal Balance

Sheet (CBS) in ‘000’MT

33

  Total cereal requirement in Somalia is estimated at 1 million tons based on 135kg per capita food needs

 Current CBS is based on Deyr 2012/13, Gu-Karan 2012 harvests in NW and projections for Gu 2013 production (5yr avg), imports (3-yr avg), and food assistance (WFP plan for 2013).

  The total deficit of 21% in Jan-Dec 2013

 Current estimate does not include all planned food assistance for Somalia

81

296

414

(250) food aid supply

commercial import supply domesHc producHon deficit

NUTRITION SECTOR Global, WHO GS, WHZ<‐2z scores and/or Oedema, (GAM) &

Severe Acute Malnutri:on, WHO GS, WHZ & <‐3 and/or Oedema (SAM), Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

1. North/Central: GAM is 10 – 14.9% in all rural and urban livelihoods except for W. Golis >15% (the latter is consistent with national and Deyr median rate of 16.2% and 15.7%, respectively for 2001-2011); Sool Plateau, Urban (Sool, Togdheer) – 5-9.9%.

2.  IDPs: GAM rates >15% except for Hargeisa, Garowe and Baidoa (10-14.9%). Mogadishu IDP has deteriorated to 16% from 9.6%.

3.  South: GAM is above 15% in most of the assessed rural South (except for Juba pastoral, Beletweyne, Mataban, Mogadishu which is lower). This is consistent with Deyr median rate.

4. Gender: Only in 2 of the 42 surveys, (Hawd/NE-Central and Bossaso IDPs) there is statistically significant difference between GAM and child Sex and Age. More boys tend to be malnourished compared to girls. In Bossaso IDPs, younger children (<24 months) are significantly more malnourished, while in Hawd, it is the older children (>24 mths).

0

15

30 Agrop

astoralists of N

W

W. G

olis/G

uban

E. Golis/N

W

E. Golis/N

E

Nugal Valley

Haw

d (NW)

Sool Plateau

Coastal deeh/NE

Haw

d/NE,Ce

ntral

Add

un/N

E, Cen

tral

Awdal U

rban

W. G

albe

ed Urban

Togdhe

er Urban

Sool Urban

Sanaag Urban

Nugal Urban

Mud

ug Urban

Galgadu

ud Urban

Hargeisa IDPs

Burao IDPs

Berbera IDPs

Bossaso IDPs

Qardh

o IDPs

Garow

e IDPs

Galkayo ID

Ps

Guriel/Dusam

areb

IDP

Dolo IDPs

Dob

ley IDPs

Kism

ayo IDPs

Baidoa ID

Ps

Mogadishu

IDPs

Afgoye Town

Bay Agrop

astoral

Mogadishu

Tow

n

BakoolPast

Beletw

eyne

District

Mataban District

N. G

edo Pastoral

N. G

edo Agro‐p

N. G

edo riverine

North & Central Regions Southern Regions

% acutely m

alno

urishe

d

GAM SAM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Sool Plateau

Add

un

Haw

d/NW

Coastal D

eeh/NE

East Golis/N

E

Nugal Valley

West G

olis/G

uban

Agro‐Pastoral of N

W

East Golis/N

W

Nugal Valley

Hargeisa IDP

Berbera IDP

Haw

d

Add

un

Beletw

eyne

District

Mataban District

Mogadishu

Tow

n

Afgoye Town

Bay Agrop

astoral

Bakool Pastoral

N. G

edo pastoral

N. G

edo Agrop

astoral

N. G

edo Riverine

Mogadishu

IDPs

Kism

ayo IDPs

Dob

ley IDPs

Dolo IDPs

Dusam

areb

IDPs

Galkayo ID

Ps

Qardh

o IDPs

Garow

e IDPs

Bossaso IDPs

Berbera IDPs

Burao IDPs

Hargeisa IDPs

Baidoa ID

Ps

North Central South IDPs

%

  Childhood diseases assessed by recall: Suspected malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea and measles

  Across the surveyed population groups, reported morbidity amongst at least 20% of the assessed children, except for East Golis/NW, which is 16%

  Morbidity was highest in Beletweyne (53.2%), Mataban (50.3%), N. Gedo pastoral (52.5%), Mogadishu IDPs (47.4%) and Bossaso IDPs (46.6%).

Morbidity (%) based on 2 week recall period, October‐December 2012

NUTRITION SECTOR

Seasonal Trends of Morbidity, Diarrhea and GAM, 2001‐2012

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Gu Gu Gu Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Deyr Gu Deyr Gu DEyr

2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

M. & L. Juba Regions, 2003‐2012 GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Gu

Hagaa

Hagaa

Jilaal

Gu

Deyr

Gu

Deyr

Gu

Deyr

Gu

Deyr

2002 2003 2006 2007 2009 2011 2012

Bay Region, 2002‐2012

GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea

‐10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Hagaa

Deyr

Gu

Hagaa

Deyr

Deyr

Gu

Deyr

Gu

Deyr

2003 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012

Togdher Region, 2003‐2012

GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea

‐10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

50.0%

70.0%

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

Jilaal

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

Jilaal

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

Jilaal

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

Hagaa

Jilaal

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

Jilaal

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

Jilaal

GU

Hagaa

Deyr

GU

Deyr

GU

Deyr

GU

Deyr

Gu

Deyr

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Assessed Somali popula:ons, 2001‐2012 Overall morbidity Diarrhoea GAM

• Meta-data analysis (2001-2011) indicates significant association between reported morbidity &GAM (RR=1.37) • Diarrhea posed the highest risk (RR=1.43)

NUTRITION SECTOR

Retrospec:ve (90 days) crude (CDR) and the under five (U5DR) per 10,000 per day, Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

North: CDR < 0.5 (Acceptable situation based on UNICEF 2005 classification) in all

assessed population groups except, Qardho and Guriel IDPs (Alert - 0.5 and

0.85 respectively).

South: CDR is generally within Alert level (0.5-0.9),

and below 0.92, the median for South for 2007-2011, except for Dolo IDPs (1.27) -

Serious & Dobley IDPs (1.92) - Critical. Main cause of deaths (reported) is AWD and

suspected pneumonia.

0 0.5 1

1.5 2

2.5 3

3.5

NW Agrop

astoral

WGolis/G

uban

EGolis07

12 (N

W)

East Golis/N

E

Nugal07

12

Haw

d (NW)

Sool07

12

Coastal deeh/NE

Haw

d/NE,Ce

ntral

Add

un/N

E, Cen

tral

Hargeisa IDPs

Burao IDPs

Berbera IDPs

Bossaso IDPs

Qardh

o IDPs

Garow

e IDPs

Galkayo ID

Ps

Guriel/Dusam

areb

IDP

Dolo IDPs

Dob

ley IDPs

Kism

ayo IDPs

Baidoa ID

Ps

Mogadishu

IDPs

BayA

grop

BakoolPast

Afgoye Town

Mogadishu

Tow

n

Beletw

eyne

District

Mataban District

NW/NE/Central Regions Southern Regions

Death ra

te/10,00

0/da

y CDR U5DR

NUTRITION SECTOR

•  GAM Rates: Improvements from Very CriHcal levels from July to December 2012 among pastoralists of W. Golis/Guban (Cri?cal) and Nugal Valley (Serious), and agropastoralists of Bay (Cri?cal). DeterioraHon in Mataban (Hiran) to Very Cri?cal.

•  SAM Rates: Improvements to, or sustained Acceptable levels (<2.5%) except in Hawd (NW), Addun (Central) ‐Alert (3.0‐3.1), N. Gedo agro‐pastoralists (3.8), Serious, Beletweyne (4.9), CriHcal, and Mataban (7.4), Very CriHcal. IDPs in Dolo (5.4), Dobley (5.1), Berbera (6.6) and Qardho (7.9) in CriHcal –Very CriHcal levels.

•  Death rates: Crude (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 2 across Somalia; U5 (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 4 across Somalia.

Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2013 NUTRITION SECTOR

Es:mated cases of acutely malnourished children (WHZ – WHO GS)

National trends in estimated proportion acutely malnourished under five boys & girls (Aug ‘11- Jan’13)

National level (1.5 million U5 year old boys & girls)

August 2011 January 2012 August 2012 January 2013

Total acutely malnourished 450,000 (30%) 323,000 (22%) 236,000 (16%) 215,000 (14.5%)

Total severely malnourished 190,000 (13%) 93,000 (6%) 54,000 (3.5%) 46,000 (3.1%)

12.2 10.8 8.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.3

0.0 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0

Banadir

Bay

Lower Ju

ba

Hira

n

Lower

Shabelle

Woq

ooye

Galbe

ed

Bakool

Middle Juba

Ged

o

Galgadu

d

Middle

Shabelle

Togdhe

r

Bari

Mud

ug

Awdal

Sanaag

Sool

Nugal

Prop

or:on

of n

a:on

al

cases

% acutely malnourished % severely malnourished

NUTRITION SECTOR

* NutriHon surveys conducted: 60 (Aug’11), 60 (Jan’12), 46 (Aug’12) and 42 (Jan’13). Median GAM levels (2001‐2011) of season used to esHmate numbers acutely malnourished where surveys are not conducted.

Deyr 2012 total caseloads of malnourished by region

The nutri?on situa?on is likely to remain the same across the country in the coming three months except for:

  Sool Plateau: could deteriorate to Serious phase, consistent with worrying food security situaHon. and seasonal levels

  Bakool, Hiran region, North Gedo regions are likely to be in CriHcal phase consistent with seasonal levels

  Shabelle region are likely to be within median levels, in Serious phase

*Current situaHon esHmates inferred from Oct‐Dec 2012 nutriHon assessments findings; NutriHon situaHon outlook, Feb‐Apr 2013 inferred from current esHmates/median seasonal rates (2001‐2011), alongside with historical disease pa`erns and food security trends for February – April 2013 period)

August 2012 January 2013

Nutri:on Situa:on Es:mates, August 2012 & January 2013, and outlook, February‐April 2013

February‐April 2013 Outlook

NUTRITION SECTOR

41

INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF LIVELIHOODS

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

•  Improved milk availability among most pastoral households for consumpHon and sales

•  Significantly improved Terms of Trade between local quality goat and cereals due to low cereal prices and excepHonally high goat prices;

•  Increased livestock holding among the poor in most livelihoods BUT sHll below the baseline levels.

•  In most pastoral areas in the North poor households can meet food needs although some have small livelihood protecHon deficit, i.e. cannot meet all basic needs

•  Food access is limited in Guban and parts of Coastal Deeh of North and Central due to successive poor rains leading to: o Below average to poor livestock condiHon o  Limited livestock asset holding

Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Kg

per H

ead

Central (Red Rice) NE(Red Rice) NW (Red Rice)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Kg

per H

ead

SorghumBelt (Red Sorghum) Juba Valley (White Maize)

Shabelle Valley(White Maize)

Average Sh/goats, Dhusamareb, Galgadud region, FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Poor Body Condition, Guban, Zeylac, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Average Camel Body Condition, Garbahaarey, Gedo, Dec. 2012

RURAL LIVELIHOODS Deyr 2012/13 Photos

Good Cattle Good Body Condition, Hagar, Lower Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012

•  Crop dependent poor households in the agropastoral areas of Lower Juba have about 1‐2 months supply of cereal stock; 5‐6 months in L. Shabelle and Bay; while the rest 3‐4 months;

•  Labour wages of the farming communiHes increased in December 2012 compared to July 2012 and year ago (Dec’11) in most of southern agricultural areas;

•  ToT daily labour wage/cereal is favorable and higher than in July 2012 and the 5‐years average (2007‐2011)

RURAL LIVELIHOODS Purchasing Power

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Kg per Daily Lab

our Wage

Month

Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg)

Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg)

Sorghum Belt-Trends in TOT Labour to Cereal

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16 Kg per Daily Lab

our Wage

Month

Jamame (White Maize 1kg)

Jilib (White Maize 1kg)

Qorioley (White Maize 1kg)

Jowhar (White Maize 1kg)

Shabelle & Juba Riverine‐TOT Labour to Cereal

RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

Baseline year Current year

Cas

h in

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00)S

oSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! #REF! livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nom

inal‐000

) SoSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales milk/meat Survival deficit Livelihoods protec?on deficit

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

70,000.00


Cas

h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00)S

oSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

70,000.00


Cas

h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00) S

oSH


Fig 2: Sool Plateau Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Non Cyclone Affected Areas

Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

Fig 4: Addun Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

70,000.00


Cas

h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00)S

oSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

70,000.00

Baseline year Current year Cas

h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00) S

oSH


0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

70,000.00

80,000.00


h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00)S

oSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00


h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00)S

oSH

milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets


Fig 7: Hawd Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

Fig 8:Northwest Agropastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Households

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00


h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00) S

oSH

milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00


h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00) S

oSH

milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00


h in

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00) S

oSH

milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit

Fig 10: Agropastoral low potential Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Fig 9: Agropastoral High potetnial Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

Fig 11: Bakol Agropastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households


Fig 12: Togdher Agropastoral Outcome Analysis – Poor Household

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

16,000.00

18,000.00


Cas

h In

com

e (N

omin

al-0

00) S

oSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF!

livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit

Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit


Fig 13: Southern Inland Pastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Househlolds

URBAN LIVELIHOODS Food Consump:on

  Food Consump:on Score (FCS): Improving food consumpHon trend in the North and Banadir (less 20% of people with poor FCS) since Gu 2012;

o  Poor to borderline food consumpHon in most of the Women Dependent HHs (WDH);

  Coping strategy index (CSI): Stable to decreasing from Gu 2012 in most regions but increased slightly in Banadir;

o  Out of the ≤10% of households adopHng severe coping strategies WDH form the majority

  Livelihood change: increased producHve assets from last Gu in both WD and MDH; no asset sales reported across the country; people are mostly employing insurance coping strategies

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120% North & Banaadir: Food Consump:on

acceptable borderline poor

URBAN LIVELIHOODS Contribu:ng Factors: Food Access and Availability

  Food available in most of the urban markets (local producHon, imports and humanitarian assistance);

  Food access: Food is mainly obtained through cash purchase followed by credit;

o  ≥80% of the urban households in the North and Banadir have one income source, while 1‐3 sources in the South‐Central

o  ToT (labour wage to cereal) is higher than 5Yr Avg (2007‐2011);

o  ConHnued decline in the cost of the Minimum Basket in most regions (below Gu and Deyr 2012 levels)

Internally Displaced Persons in Se^lements (IDP) Food Security Outcomes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

% of h

ouseho

lds

North & Banaadir: Poor Food Consump:on

High proportion of IDPs have poor food consumption; 34-58% in NW and 44-74% in the NE

Low asset diversity among the IDPs; mostly one asset type per household: either a wheelbarrow or a mobile phone or a radio or skilled work tools

Low diversity of income sources: mostly one income sources per household; exception is Baidoa (3 income sources - self-employment, casual labour and social support)

Internally Displaced Persons in Se^lements (IDP) IPC: Contribu:ng Factors

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

% fo

od expen

diture

IDP: Food Expenditure (%)

High food expenditure among the IDPs with limited ability to meet non‐food expenditures (78‐80% of expenditure)

Main sources of income: either of casual labour, self‐employment; pemy trade; skilled labour (North and Banaadir)

High dependency on loans for food in most of assessed IDPs – increased from July 2012

Cri?cal nutriHon situaHon in most IDP semlements assessed except Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa (Serious)

Current Food Security Phase Classifica:ons

Summary Results

IPC Classifica:on Rural, Urban & IDP popula:on in crisis (Current)

Region UNDP 2005

Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

UNDP 2005 Rural

Population

Urban in Stressed

Rural in Stressed

Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in

Emergency Rural in

Emergency

Total in Crisis and

Emergency as % of Total population

North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4

Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12

Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10

Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 186,000 35,000 0 0 0 4

Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 96,000 12,000 13,000 0 0 8 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 162,000 0 16,000 0 0 3 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 58,000 12,000 8,000 0 0 8

Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 73,000 22,000 16,000 0 0 10

Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 865,000 81,000 70,000 0 50,000 6 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,346,000 152,000 126,000 0 107,000 5

Assessed and Con:ngency Popula:on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula:on Distribu:on of popula:ons in crisis

Assessed Urban populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 15%

Assessed Rural populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 233,000 3 23%

IDP in semlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1 million) to avoid double counHng 615,000 8 62%

EsHmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaHon in crisis 1,000,000 13 100%

IPC CLASSIFICATION Rural, Urban & IDP Popula:on in Crisis (Projected)

Region UNDP 2005

Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

UNDP 2005 Rural

Population

Urban in Stressed

Rural in Stressed Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in

Emergency Rural in

Emergency

Total in Crisis and

Emergency as % of Total population

North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4

Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12

Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10

Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 212,000 35,000 21,000 0 0 7 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 86,000 12,000 22,000 0 0 11 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 146,000 0 31,000 0 0 5 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 57,000 12,000 9,000 0 0 9

Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 69,000 22,000 20,000 0 0 11

Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 860,000 81,000 120,000 0 50,000 7 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,341,000 152,000 176,000 0 107,000 6

Assessed and Con:ngency Popula:on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula:on Distribu:on of popula:ons in crisis

Assessed Urban populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 14%

Assessed Rural populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 283,000 4 27%

IDP in semlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1million) to avoid double counHng 615,000 8 59%

EsHmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaHon in crisis 1,050,000 14 100%

IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribu:on of Popula:ons in Crisis by Livelihood

Projected

Current

Livelihood system Es:mated

Popula:on by Livelihood Zones

Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency

Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total

Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 615,000 115,000 0 115,000 41

Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0

Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 51,000 8,000 59,000 21

Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4

DesHtute pastoral 98,906 0 0 99,000 99,000 35 Grand Total

4,607,086 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100

Livelihood system Es:mated

Popula:on by Livelihood Zones

Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency


Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 620,000 63,000 0 63,000 27

Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0

Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 53,000 7,000 60,000 26

Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4

DesHtute pastoral 98,906 0 0 100,000 100,000 43 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,346,000 126,000 107,000 233,000 100

IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribu:on of Popula:ons in Crisis by Wealth Groups (Projected)

Rural Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency


Poor 1,130,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100

Middle 211,000 0 0 0 0

Be^er‐off 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100

Urban Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency


Poor 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100

Middle 0 0 0 0 0

Be^er‐off 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100

IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of Populations in Crisis by Year (Projected)

Jan-Jun '09 Jul-Dec '09 Jan-Jun '10 Jul-Dec '10 Jan-Jun '11 Jul-Dec '11 Apr-Jun '12 Aug-Dec '12 Jan-Jun '13

increase/ decrease from last season

Urban 705,000 655,000 580,000 310,000 475,000 585,000 550,000 530,000 152,000 -71%

Rural 1,215,000 1,435,000 1,255,000 785,000 1,005,000 2,550,000 1,160,000 790,000 283,000 -64%

IDPs (UNHCR) 1,295,000 1,550,000 1,390,000 1,410,000 1,465,000 1,465,000 1,360,000 1,360,000 1,100,000 -19%

Adjusted IDP to avoid double counting in Rural IPC

850,000 850,000 850,000 850,000 910,000 910,000 800,000 800,000 615,000 23%

Total 2,770,000 2,940,000 2,685,000 1,945,000 2,390,000 4,045,000 2,510,000 2,120,000 1,050,000 -50%

IPC Map, Feb – Jun 2013 IPC Map, Feb 1st 2013 IPC Map, Aug ‐ Dec 2012

IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of the Food Security Situa:on Aug 2012‐ Jun 2013

Key Messages

  The numbers of popula:on in crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in post Deyr 2012/13 reduced by over 50% from the post Gu 2012 (Feb‐Jun 2012) due to improved access and availability of food. In most areas poor food uHlisaHon (e.g. lack of safe water, feeding pracHces for children, etc.) remains a major limiHng factor of food security

  In the projec:on period up to June 2013, 1.05 million people are es:mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phases 3 and 4; this indicates a slight deterioraHon from the current situaHon (Feb 1, 2013) of a total of 1.0 million people in crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) na:onwide.

  1.3mln people are also es:mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), of which about 80% are in the South. Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) implies that at least 20% of the populaHon in the analysed area can meet food needs but is not able to cover some essenHal non‐food needs and has reduced ability to invest in livelihoods

  Majority of IDP semlements are in Emergency situaHon due to high morbidity and limited food access; high malnutriHon rates and elevated death rates in Alert to Cri?cal (5 IDP semlements, o/w 4 in the South‐Central) are evident in these semlements

  A total of 215,000 (14.3% of 1.5m) children <5 are acutely malnourished, of which two‐thirds are in the South; Overall nutri?on situa?on is likely to remain unchanged across the country in the coming three months

Key Messages Assump:on for Projec:ons (Feb‐Jun 2013)

  Gu rains are likely to be normal to below normal affecHng marginal rain‐fed maize cropping in southern agropastoral areas of the country.

  Limited access to water for livestock is likely in parts of northern regions such as Sool Plateau and parts of Nugal Valley during Jilaal dry season (Jan‐Mar)

  Food at household level (milk and cereal stocks) as well as seasonal farm job opportuniHes for poor farmers will be available in the projecHon period;

  Cereal prices will follow a seasonal trend as a result of good Deyr harvest and anHcipated supplies through humanitarian assistance and imports (port and cross‐border)

  Insecurity will persist (although reduced) in South‐Central causing disrupHons of food supply into the markets, limiHng humanitarian access and causing displacements

  Food security classificaHon is likely to remain unchanged between now and June 2013; But current projecHon assumpHon will be reviewed in March‐April based on updated informaHon on climate performance; humanitarian intervenHons; security condiHons

Key messages Required Response

•  Lifesaving responses to the populaHon in Emergency is a priority

•  ProtecHng livelihoods and strengthening disaster risk reducHon and miHgaHon through: strengthen exisHng public services and community based resources and assets that serve to protect vulnerable populaHons from falling into crisis.

•  Building resilience of vulnerable poor households and addressing underlying causes of high malnutriHon (lack of safe water and sanitaHon, caring/ feeding pracHces, etc.) to reduce the risks of food and nutriHon insecurity

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