future: how to be prepared for it? futurist elina hiltunen what’s next consulting oy elina...
TRANSCRIPT
Future:How to be
prepared for it?
Futurist Elina Hiltunen
What’s Next Consulting Oy
Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: [email protected]
Elina, who?
• M.Sc in chemical engineering• Futurist• Ph.D. Student at HSE• Lecturer, consultant• Founder of What’s Next
Consulting Oy• Columnist at Talouselämä,
Wired UK, Talous Sanomat, Jade, Future Takes (US)
• Board member of European Futurists Conference
• Blogger: www.future.vuodatus.net
What did not happen in the
future:
1910 , France: Paleo future blogi
Harpleys Week, 1908
And what happened…
Source: paleofuture blog
Why to think about the future when we cannot predict it?
• Be prepared for various futures (anticipation)
• Innovating the futures and breaking our mental models
• Communicating and discussion about futures with shareholders
Anticipating the futures
Being prepared for
various futures
Some concepts of the future
Fad
Trend
Megatrend
duration
Weak Signals
Wild cards
Megatrenditare big trends that concern a lot of people
Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/images/globalization/globalization1.gif
Globalization
NetworkingSource: http://www.cartoonweb.com/
Teknological development
Climate change
Increase of the use of social media
Increase of distant working
Increase of use of alternative energy sources
Increase of single households
Increase of use of mobile phones
TRENDs
Wild cards
• Fast changes with huge impacts
Kuvan lähde: http://www.israelnewsagency.com/cherney911terrorism.jpg
Weak signals
• Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in the future- or then not
A weak signal test
1. Makes your colleagues to laugh
2. You collagues are opposing it:no way, it will never happen
3. Makes people to wonder
4. No one has heard about it before
5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu)
1-5 ticks and it is a weak signal!
Source: Perhe- lehti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKqyn-gUbY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6z2DWXmRkg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd99gyE4jCk
Philips Lumalive
Different kinds of weak signals• Technological weak signals
innovations• Social weak signals
something is done differently, a change in accustomed
Where Do I (as a weak signal enthusiast) find them?
• Surfing in the Internet• Blogs, blogs and blogs• Keeping my eyes and ears open, mobilephone with
camera in the other hand and a notebook in the other
reporting about weak signals
How to use weak signals
TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi
a tool for organizations for collecting futures information
TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi
signaalit
Trendi+ erilaiset
tilastolliset Analyysit
skenaariot
Now
Scenarios
Scenarios
Trend
Trend
TrendTrend
Trend
Trend
Megatrend
Megatrend
Megatrend
Testing the strategy
How will the strategy work in different futures
-finding weak points of strategy -thinking of various possibilities for action in the future
Scenarios
Strategy
Innovating the futures
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. ”
”For knowledge is limited to all we now know and
understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know
and understand.”
Breaking the mental models
Tools:-Strategic serendipity-Futures Window
Futures Window
References: VTT, UPM, Nokia, Welness fair 2008, YLE
Strategic Serendipity
Target group theme
A trend
Product/ service
Comunnication and discussion with the
community
Finnair Departure 2093
www.departure2093.com
Futures work of various organizations• Macroscenarios (Shell, Nokia)
• Consumer scenarios (Philips, Sony Ericsson)
• Reports on various topics (Siemens, IBM)
• Futures teasers(Philips Design, VW)
Beware of these in you organization’s futures
work• Believing too much on your own opinions about the future
• Consensus, group think• Being prepared only for one, the most wanted future
• Superficiality, too little resources
Thank You! More information: www.future.vuodatus.net and www.whatsnext.fi