“future is the time when you will regret that you did’t do what you could do today” chinese...

“Future is the time when you will regret that you did’t do what you could do today” Chinese Wisdom

W.Pekny, Plattform Footprint

Footprint, A new view of the world

Stories about planets and people

Soon, we all will have troubles to sleep well.

Most, because they will be hungry.

The rest, because they will be afraid of the hungry.“


Evening news:„Every day, there are hundreds of plane accidents,

with 747s falling off the sky by the dozen per hour!

Each day, the plan-crashes cost 100 000 lives!

The reason is well known, but no one is stopping the disaster!

unthinkable ?


Fair World?

Think twice: 100 000 die each day:

The cause?

Famine! Hunger due to poverty!

Jean Ziegler calls it “murder”* 856 million people are critically undernourished!

(Data2005)

* At the same time, consumption of meet with the wealthy has grown fife-fold since the 50s. Obesity is a plague in the „developed world“


Fair World?

Poverty:1 bn people must get along with less than 1$

per day (2,8 bn less than 2$!)

1 bn people live slums!

At the same time, the number of billionaires is growing!

Tken from “In larger Freedom”, UN Report 05


Fair World?

Water: 6 x more water is behind dams than is

allowed to flow freely in worlds rivers.Nevertheless , 2 bn people are threatened

by water shortage!Energy / Global Warming Less than ¼ of humankind consumes more

than ¾ of resources.

Taken from UNEP Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 05

Ecological Limits


v

Sozial Limits

¼ of population

consumes ¾ of the world

¾ of population must get along with

¼ of the world

18% „own“ 85% of the world 82% have to share the rest

50% of monetarygrowth (2004) went to

0,12%


Mission Impossible?

The inequity is growing = Not „future-proof“!

• Stronger than „unsustainable!“

• Not fit for the future!

calls for change


Future-proof Societies

Peaceful cooperation will require a new view of our planet home.

• Humans need to understand themself as part of the ecosystem. (relatively easy)

• Humans need to comprehend the world as a whole. (very difficult)


Future-proof politics andfuture-proof livestyles

require anew view of Planet Earth

The planet no longer an unlimited wilderness!


Future-proof Societies

• The mass of humans surpasses the biomass of all fish in the oceans!

• The biomass of global livestock surpasses the biomass of all land-dwelling vertebrates by a factor of 20!

V. Smil: The Earth‘s Biosphere

A New View of the World


water air



Ahead is a unique challenge „more might than Nero“

The enormous „collective power“ over nature is not balanced by a collective responsibility towards the global commons.

Human activities have reached physical planetary limits.

(„spaceshuttle without no-smoking rules“)



Several new concepts for measuring the „new“ limits:

Ecological Footprint

Helps to make

LIMITS

tangible and calculable.

Ecological and Physical Limits


What does it measure?

• Footprint (human demand): How much of the biosphere’s regenerative capacity is used by human activities?

• Biocapacity (ecological supply): How much of the biosphere is available within a region?



• We measure the mutually exclusive areas necessary to produce the resources we consume and absorb the waste. (wherever on the planet they are located)

• Can be calculated for a country, a person or humankind as a whole.



Footprint components

Fossilenergie verbaute Abfall Nahrung Holz und Faser Fläche W.Pekny, Plattform Footprint


Fossil Fuel Built-up Waste Food Fibres, Firewood absorption

• Non renewable fossil fuels are calculated with the area necessary to absorb the emitted CO2 (forest and oceans)

• The metric is a “global hectare”

= 10 000 m², with the average productivity of the worlds

bio-productive surface.



Bioproductive segments

18% productive land 11%

Deserts, ice

67% Oceans with low productivity

4% Oceans with high productivity

22%


Biocapacity

11,6 bn hectare

The very complex ecological inter-relations are summarized to an archaic, comprehendible parameter: area

• The beauty of the concept is the obvious and indisputable limit of area on planet earth

• Many “eco-questions” are turned into a „matter of justice“, closer to ordinary people‘s feelings


Footprint

The only sustainability parameter with an undisputable maximum value.

Earth will not grow!

11,6 bn hectar bioproduktive

area



Assuming a fair allocation of area, there is about

1,8 gha (global hectare) available per person today. (not calculating any area for other creatures)

• The average European citizen requires 4,8 gha to meet his/her material demands. (US citizen 9,6 gha)


If all peolpe would live like we do in Europe,

It would require 3 planets!

We live on too big a foot!


Earth is already eaten up ! Double tragedy:

Utilisation of natural resources is

40% above the biological capacity

¾ of humankind have not yet participated in this feast!


Sustainable scenario

Standard scenario

Human Ecological Footprint, 1950-2050

Source: Ecological Footprint of Europe 2005, WWFUpdate 2008

Absolute Limits

Humankind uses an equivalent of 1,4 earthsWe no longer get along with the „interest“ nature provides we eat up the capital .


+ 40% in 2008

Planet Earth is „too small“

Only too small for the greed of the „Global Consumer Class“ (c.f. W. Sachs)

Peace, justice and global fairness can not be achieved at todays level of overuse! „How many planets?“ Mohanda Gandhi


Absolute Limits

Give room -

for ¾ of humankind and the all the rest of live on earth

Global Duty of the Wealthy


(UN)–Development goals: Everlasting growth!!

No way!

Without fundamental change, there will be no sustainable

development

Developmentchallenge


v

$

conventionel growth

development “aid“

„¾ - ¼ Welt“



v

$

$ $conventionel growth



conventionel growth

v



conventionel growth

v

SHRINK



v

20%shrinking?



vv

return „area to live“ to the owners



The biggest development will need to take place with us! (US)


Development Challenge

Leapfrogging

Changing lifestyles



The “Good Living”, with a fair footprint

A decent life with a global fair footprint ….

…requires personel and systemic (political and economic)

change!



• “we know more about the future than we want to know…”

• Biophysical risks (biocapacity constraints) are an increasing, yet underdetected, risk factor

Assessing Long-term Risks

Systemic Changes


Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

2003 data

The World Today


UN’s most moderate scenario

The Coming Decades


Is there enough natural capital to liquidate for a moderate

Business-as-Usual Path?

The Coming Decades


Bill

ion 2

003

glo

bal

hect

are

s

24

12

Long-term waste

The Coming Decades


Slow things first!

The Challenge Ahead


„Global Ethics“

Our „freedom“ to choose a wasteful lifestyle is limited by the freedom of others to live a humanely life at all. (Ecological Categorical Imperative

A New Global Contract


We need new economic models which can handle physical limits

“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on for ever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist“

Kenneth Boulding 1966

A Better World Is Possible


First time in history, the enormous technological progress could contribute to the well being of all humans

“The test for our progress is not weather we add more to the abundance of those who have, its weather we provide enough for those who have too little.”

Franklin D. Roosevelt 1937:

USA in 2005: 12 million kids without any social security or health schemes

In the given system, progress has mainly fueled the profit of the global shareholders.

Progress – which Progress?


End the flow of wealth from bottom to top

End the need for growth

A New Economic Model



Economies to serve the needs of people

instead of

Politics to serve the needs of the economy (to grow)



Politics with a vision?


Effects

Time2008 2012 2050

Easy problem

difficult

Difficult and dangerous!

Goal

Requires some basic enlightment.


- unfortunately, enlightment ist not automatically resulting in action …. (see health effects of smoking)

+ However, enlightment is a necessary precondition to accept changes in policies and personal matters.

+ Voters and consumers need to understand the new rules….

„When it comes to non-smoking rules on Spaceshuttle, there is no need for a decade of policy-debate. “



Stepping Lightly on Earth

Understanding our global impact:

Measuring your own footprint(www.mein-fussabdruck.at)



Food

Consumtion

Mobility

Housing

1/3

1/4

1/6

1/5

Ecological Footprint of an Ø Austrian

4,9 ghaThereof 80% for meat and animal products

Thereof 90% for heat and electricity

Thereof >90% for cars and planes

China 1,5 ghaIndia 0,8 gha

1,6 gha


How can a view bites influence the world?

Was’t there abundant area in agriculture lately?

Was’t there an overproduction?

Globaly, there never was an overproduction!

Rather underconsumption!

Todays situation in agriculture is an artefakc of industrialisation:

We eat oil and Amazone!

Footprint and Food


Village Aspang (Lower Austria) 1900



Village Aspang (Lower Austria) 2000

Rondonia, Amazone 1975

http://www.na.unep.net/OnePlanetManyPeople/site_images.html

200 km

Rondonia, Amazone 2001

http://www.na.unep.net/OnePlanetManyPeople/site_images.html

Creation of Austrian fallows

Soybean production in Central Brazil

We import acreage!

Our cattle, pigs and chicken are „grazing“ “ in Argentina – or worse – in the Amazone!

Bio-Fuels from fallows?

Which fallows ????

Footprint und Food


Reducing Footprint = different nutrition

• less meat and animal products • organic agriculture

• seasonal, local • fair trade



Reducing Footprint = different mobility“Systemwechsel statt Treibstoffwechsel!”

gm²/100km*

Flight short distance 180 -250 (70 -100 )Flight long distance 150 -230 (60 - 90 )Car (gasoline) 50 – 60Car (diesel) 40 - 50 Car (agrofuels) 90 -120Bus (60 passengers) 5 - 8Train (Austria) 3 - 6electric-car (PV) < 1* per person, cars per vehicle

Figures based on calculation by the author: see: www.footprint.at W.Pekny, Plattform Footprint

1kg beef = appr. 100gm² = appr. 200km car!

= appr. 1 year PC(10h a day with green electricity)


http://www.footprint.at/

Oil can never be substituted with biogenic materials!

REDUCTION of demand stays central! – Potential for agro-fuels in EU is < 5%

+ transformation of agriculture to sustainable practices (organic)

+ Globale Rules to insure “food souvereignity”

+ Utilization of surplus biomass: Stationary applications are much more efficient

+ Wind-energy and PV have much higher energy-yields per acerage. • Ø car with Ø use „eats“ about 10 times the calories/year compared to the owner .• To cover Austrias need for Diesel, it would take 3 times the acrage of Austrias

cropland.

Food or Fuel? – Wheat to Gasoline?


6%

15%

8%

71%

Bahn

PKW

AndereVerkehrsmittel

keine Reisegemacht

To travel by aeroplane is a privilege for 7% of global Population – but a problem for 100% !

Cheap flights create traffic!For 29.- Euro to Madrid? Without this offer, passengers would have ….

Footprint and Flying


Footprint and Housing


•enormous reduction potentials (90-99%)

• Investment-dilema (Investor - User / North–South)

• Gray Energy (check increased demand on mobility)

• Gain in quality, no sacrifice!

The personal contribution: Five Finger Rule

+ Flying – forget it!

+ Less use of cars! (slower, never alone!)

+ less meat and animal products(organic, seasonal, local)

+ Clever housing: (well isolated, smaller, renewable energies, public transport)



The Fifth Finger:

Pleasure and fun

Enjoy to step lightly on earth.

W.Pekny, Plattform Footprnt


Are you just working ….

…or have you started living?

Reducing Footprint = different Life-styles



Average Income and Happiness in the United States, 1957-2002

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1957 1967 1977 1987 1997Source: Myers

Ave

rage

Inco

me

(199

5 D

olla

rs)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of

People "V

ery H

appy"

Average Income

Very Happy People


Do we grow happier by owning more?

• Consuming less with pleasure (Suffizienz) „The quest for the optimum instead of the maximum“

• Consume with consciousness! Ecological and social acceptable products,

with solidarity (Fair Trade, Clean Cloths) longevity Quality instead of quantity



Do we grow happier by acting faster?

• Take Your Time - Deceleration

Reduce speed: in trafic, with work, in life

Being, instead of having. „Halfday-societies“

Substitution of energy with time

(travelling like A. v. Humbolt)

Only possible with altered framework conditions



„Footprint“ does not tell us what we should do or leave.

l„Footprint“ just tells us how much we have!

ENOUGH!



Food

Heating

Nature

Mobility

Electricity

Commons

Consumption

Leben von einem Hektar

Natur

Planes

Overconsuption

Conventionelcar

Waisted energy



Living off one hectare

Food

Heating

Nature

Mobility

Electricity

Überkonsum

Commons

Consumption



Regain „Political Space“

• Polititics to frame the future. Become active yourself!

• Public „consumption refuse“ is a political statement

• Choose your future:



XXX

XXXXX

XXxx

xxxx

xxxXXXXXXXXXX


Will happen in any case:natural,hard,cruel!

A humane transition is possible …


1-2-3-clap

Action instead of words!

Lets do our job!

Demonstrate the good living by stepping lightly on earth.

Good living with a fair gloabl share



Education for Sustaiable Development:• Presentations: • Web-site footprint.at• Brochure „Fooptprint - Der Ökologische Fußabdruck Österreichs“• Footprint-Calculator (a shool-version is in the making) • Footprint-Online game: „Leben auf großem Fuß“• DVD „Footprint - Große Ansprüche an einen kleinen Planeten (38

Minuten und 14 Minuten) (an older version available in English)• Film: „FAIR FUTURE – Wir schaffen Zukunft“ (75 Min. HDTV, 50

Minuten school)• Theater Trittlbrettl • 1-ha Workshops (Gut Leben-Workshops)• Seminars/traaining for Multipliers • Teacher Training• Brettspiel Footprint (mit RJB)

EINE BESSERE WELT IST MÖGLICH!


“future is the time when you will regret that you did’t do what you could do today” chinese...

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