future of intelligence - p+
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Purpose+ Internal Research Project
NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND NON-PROPRIETARY, ENTIRELY SHAREABLE Purpose+, Amstel 95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Future of Intelligence
‘Intelligence’[in-tel-i-juh ns]
Noun.
1. Aptitude in grasping truths, relationships, facts, meanings. 2. The ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills
Source: www.oxforddictionaries.com, www.dictionary.reference.com
Definition
Although humans possess higher brain weight compared to body size than most other animals...
Source: External measures of cognition, Frontiers in Human Neuroscience
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Hippopotamus Tiger Lion
Gray Parrot Coyote Gorilla
Capuchin Chimpanzee
Baboon Macaque
Commerson's Dolphin Bottlenose Dolphin
Whale dolphin Human
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Hippopotamus Tiger Lion
Gray Parrot Coyote Gorilla
Capuchin Chimpanzee
Baboon Macaque
Commerson's Dolphin Bottlenose Dolphin
Whale dolphin Human
Encephalization Quotient of humans compared to other animals... ...and the absolute weight of the brains involved
Note of caution: Albert Einstein – one of the smartest people to have ever lived – had a notoriously low EQ of 5,76, which is lower than the average human. He did however have a higher density of neurons in his neocortex.
Similarity to ancestors
...we are only a bit smarter – primarily on the social level (1/2)
Source: Hermann et al., 2007; Humans Have Evolved Specialized Skills of Social Cognition: The Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis
A comparison of 106 chimpanzees, 32 orangutans, and 105 human (children before school, aged 2,5)
Similarity to ancestors
Space Quantities Causality
Social Learning Communication Theory of Mind
Mostly similar
Significant difference
IQ dimension Method of assessment Humans Chimpanzee Organgutan
Physical 0,68 0,68 0,59
Space 0,71 0.71 0,60
Spatial Memory Locating a reward 0.91 0,95 0,85
Object permanence Tracking reward after visual displacement 0,79 0,64 0,60
Rotation Tracking reward after rotation manipulation 0,55 0,56 0,46
Transposition Tracking reward after location changes 0,57 0,70 0,47
Quantities 0,67 0,68 0,63
Relative numbers Discriminating quantity 0,71 0,66 0,64
Addition numbers Discriminating quantity with added numbers 0,64 0,69 0,61
Causality 0,65 0,66 0,55
Noise Causal understanding of produced noise by hidden rewards 0,85 0,61 0,56
Shape Causal understanding of appearance change by hidden rewards 0,83 0,68 0.64
Tool use Using a stick in order to retrieve a reward which is out of reach 0,23 0,74 0,38
Tool properties Understanding of functional and nonfunctional tool properties 0,71 0,61 0,63
Social 0,74 0,36 0,33
Social learning Solving a simple but not obvious problem by observing a demonstrated solution 0,86 0,10 0,07
Communication 0,72 0,57 0,55
Comprehension Understanding communicative cues indicating a reward’s hidden location 0,84 0,63 0,65
Pointing cups Producing communicative gestures in order to retrieve a hidden reward 0,72 0,74 0,73
Attentional state Choosing communicative gestures considering the attentional state of the recipient 0,59 0,34 0,26
Theory of mind 0,65 0,40 0,36
Gaze following Following an actor’s gaze direction to a target 0,45 0,22 0,17
Intentions Understanding what an actor intended to do (unsuccessfully) 0,85 0,59 0,56
Significant win over other two species
Source: Hermann et al., 2007; Humans Have Evolved Specialized Skills of Social Cognition: The Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis
Similarity to ancestors
...we are only a bit smarter – primarily on the social level (1/2)A comparison of 106 chimpanzees, 32 orangutans, and 105 human (children before school, aged 2,5)
Our intelligence seems constructed of replicable units of ~100 neurons that function in hierarchical layers – which could be replicated...
Source: How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed, 2012
Neo-cortical pattern recognition module
The value of each input is assessed on a couple of dimensions: • Size parameter • Weight (importance)
of lower level input • Expected variability
of the pattern
Example of single pattern recognition module that receives input through dendrites, and provides output through an axon
Dendrites providing input to the module from a lower level in the hierarchy. Dendrite firing in a certain pattern signals that a certain
pattern is expected to occur.
Axon providing the output of the pattern recognition module to other dendrites, higher up the information hierarchy.
Inhibitory signals from above. Pattern expected from above.
Inhibitory signals from
below. 1
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Functionality
...and therefore will be replicated – which will lead to much higher computing power than all human brains combined this century
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One human brain
All human brains
Mouse brain
Insect brain
Computing power
Estimated computing power in in calculations per second per 1000 dollars; numbers represent exponents of 10
Source: Ray Kurzweill, www.kurzweilai.net, The Singularity is Near (2005)
Future
AI has already surpassed us when it comes to playing some games
The game... ...AI level today... ...and the proof of the pudding
Checkers
Backgammon
Traveller TCS
Othello
Chess
Crosswords
Scrabble
Bridge
Poker
Arthur Samuel’s checkers program CHINOOK beats human world champion in 1994.
Hans Berliner’s program BKG beats the world champion in 1979. Updated further in 1992.
Douglas Lenat’s program Eurisko wins the US championship.
The program Logistello wins every game in a six-game match against the world champion Murakami.
The program Deep Blue beats world champion Kasparov in 1997. Kasparov claims to have seen true intelligence.
The program Dr. Fill scores in the top quartile in the American Crossworld Puzzle Tournament.
As of 2002, Scrabble-playing software surpasses the human level of play.
In 2005, Bridge-playing software reaches parity with the best human players.
At the moment AI remains slightly below the best humans in Texas hold ‘em, but surpass humans in some other variants.
Superhuman
Best human
Sub human
Source: Nick Bostrom (2014); Superintelligence
Future
Cognitive enhancement* of humans is possible, but the effects are relatively limited...
Education
Nootropics
General health improvement
Mental training
Brain training
Improving the ‘software of the mind’ to manage various domains in life like language, mathematics,
Pharmacological cognitive enhancement through substances as caffeine, gingko biloba, methamphetamines etc. Not very much effects in healthy subjects, but some substances (serotonin/dopamine enhancers) provide real benefits in some clinical cases. Some substances can be efficient in the moment (Modafinil, Ritalin).
Improving fitness, quality of sleep and quality of immune function all benefit cognitive functioning. Especially long-term exercise is effective.
Specific techniques to optimize performance like visualisation and deep relaxation as practiced by many elite athletes. Also specific memory training like the ‘method of loci’ to remember things better.
Specific brain training regimes done through gamified systems. Most games are not effective; Dual-N-Task has shown to improve working memory.
Category... ...it’s estimated effects... ...and what it means in more detail
Source: Bostrom (2014, Superintelligence); Winship, Korenman (1997, Does Staying in School Make You Smarter? The Effect of Education on IQ in The Bell Curve)
2-4 points per year of education
Very limited and temporary for healthy subjects; benefits for clinical patients
Significant better sustainability over life
Beneficial for specific tasks, unlikely to raise IQ scores
TMS Transcranial magnetic simulation (TMS) can possibly increase or decrease the plasticity of the brain in certain areas which might be beneficial.
Unclear at this moment
Possibly beneficial
Genetic modification
Selecting embryos for the right genes in order to increase IQ. Strong
The effects of human enhancement through embryo selection could be most significant, but will still not be drastic enough to compete with AI
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IQ points gained over time
Maximum result
Maximum result
Source: Shulman and Bostrom (2014), Embryo Selection for Cognitive Enhancement
