54 COSMOS 59COSMOSMAGAZINE.COM COSMOSMAGAZINE.COMCOSMOS 5955SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCETHEY CAN BEAT US AT GAME SHOWS AND RECOGNISING FACES. WHATS LEFT UNTIL MACHINES ARE ALTOGETHER SMARTER THAN US? ELIZABETH FINKEL INVESTIGATESAI: SMARTER BY THE MINUTEMICHAEL WELDON/THE JACKY WINTER GROUP56 COSMOS 59COSMOSMAGAZINE.COM COSMOSMAGAZINE.COMCOSMOS 5957SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCETHEODORE: I wish you were in this room with me right now. I wish I could put my arms around you. I wish I could touch you.SAMANTHA: How would you touch me?THEODORE: I would touch you on your face with just the tips of my fingers. And put my cheek against your cheek.SAMANTHA: Thats nice.THEODORE: And just rub it so softly.SAMANTHA: Would you kiss me?THEODORE: I would. Id take your head into my hands.SAMANTHA: Keep talking.singularitywillbehereby2029.Atthispointcomputersreachhumanintelligence.AndaccordingtoKurzweil,themachinesthenstartdesigningmoreadvancedversionsofthemselvesandlifeonEarthbecomesasunknowableasthesingularitybeyondtheeventhorizonofablackhole.Healsobelievesuploadingourmindsintothehardwareofmachinesisonthecards.Thatfuturestillsoundsway-out.Butthepredictionofhuman-likeintelligenceby2029isstartingtolookdownrightconservative.Peoplehavedreamedofartificialintelligenceforalongtime.YoucouldlookbacktoTalosofCrete,agiantmanofbronzewhowasthebodyguardforthemythicalcharacterEuropa,orto1920whenthetermrobotwascoinedinKarelCapeksplayRossums Universal Robots,orto1950whenIsaacAsimovbeganhisI, Robotseries.InoneofhisstoriesAsimovevenimaginedahuman-robotloveaffair.EngineersstartedtakingmachineintelligenceseriouslyduringWorldWarII.AlanTuringscomputerallowedtheBritishtocracktheEnigmacodesofGermansubmarineswhileMITmathematicianNorbertWienerusedacomputertohelpaimanti-aircraftguns.Thepositionsoftheoverheadbomberscouldbetrackedbyradarbutthecomputerhadtocalculatewheretheplanewouldbe20secondsafterfiring.Wienerhitonathrillingdiscovery.Thegunsoccasionallywentintowildoscillations,aproblemthatcouldberectifiedusingnegativefeedback.Neurologistshadrecentlyproposedthesamemechanismtoexplainhowthebraincontrolledthemovementoflimbs,relyingonfeedbackfromsensoryinformation.ToWienerandhiscolleaguesitseemedtheyhadhitonthebeginningsofagrandunifiedtheoryofintelligence.Wehavedecidedtocalltheentirefieldofcontrolandcommunicationtheory,whetherinthemachineorintheanimal,bythenamecybernetics,whichweformfromtheGreeksteersman,theydeclaredin1948.Itmarkedthebirthofanideathattookholdandhasneverletgo.Cyberneticsisnotjustanotherbranchofscience.Itisanintellectualrevolutionthatrivalsinimportancetheearlierindustrialrevolution,wroteAsimovin1956.ThatsameyearaleadinggroupofcomputerscientistsmetforaconferenceinDartmouth.TheyincludedMarvinMinsky,JohnMcCarthy,ClaudeShannonandNathanielRochester.Theirgoal?Tolaydownaroadmapforhowtomakeamachineofhuman-likeintelligence.Tomarktheirendeavourtheycoinedthetermartificialintelligence,orAI.We propose that a two-month, 10-man study of artificial intelligence becarried out during the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. The study is to proceed on the basis of the conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other featureof intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it. An attempt will be made to find how to make machinesuse language, form abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans, and improvethemselves. We think that a significantadvance can be made in one or more ofthese problems if a carefully selected group of scientists work on it together for a summer.ThiscouldbeasteamyscenefromanR-ratedmovie.Itsnot.Samanthaisaprogram,theoperatingsystemforTheodorescomputer.InthemovieHer,directorSpikeJonzepaintsanall-too-vividpictureoflifewithanartificiallyintelligentbeing.Wevemetartificiallyintelligentbeingsbefore.In1968HAL,thesoft-spokenandultimatelymurderousshipboardcomputerof2001: A SpaceOdyssey,seemedcomfortinglyfaroff.Samanthadoesnot.ManyofusholdherprototypeinourpocketsrightnowjusttryaskingApplesSiriifshelovesyou.SiriisnotSamanthayet.ButhowlonguntilsomeonelikeSamanthaemergesfromyourcomputerscreen?Sofarpredictionsofhuman-likeAIhavebeensomethingofasoggyfireworksshow.Eversincethe1960sround-the-cornerclaimshavesoaredonlytofizzle.Butthistimearoundtheshowisdifferent.Thenewgenerationofsmartmachinescarryapayloadofprocessingpowerordersofmagnitudelargerthantheirpredecessors.Andtheyaredrivingbrain-likeprogramsthatallowthemtolearn.Theresult?Machinesaremarchingintoterritorythatwasoncethepreserveofhumans.ThelatestcanoutdousatrecognisingfacesordecipheringCAPTCHAs,thedistortedwordsthatuntilnowhavebeenreliedupontodistinguishhumansfromautomatedbotsouttostealonlinepasswords.Elsewhereautomatedsystemsaredrivingcars,beatinghumansatgameshows,consultingascancerspecialistsand,ofcourse,actingaspocketpersonalassistants.AIisalreadyhereinbitsandpieces.Andfarfrombeingterrifiedofit,weloveit.Hershowshowourfictionshavechanged.HALwasakiller.TheworstthingSamanthadoesisrunoffwithanotherAI.Butasthebitsandpiecescometogether,willwereallyseeahuman-likeintelligenceemerge?RayKurzweil,anAIpioneerandfuturist,famouslypredictedthe HER SHOWS HOW OUR FICTIONS HAVE CHANGED. HAL WAS A KILLER. THE WORST THING SAMANTHA DID WAS RUN OFF WITH ANOTHER AI.CrackingAIprovedmorethanasummerswork,butthescientistsfervourinfectedtheUSmilitaryandsciencefundingagencies.ItwastheheightoftheColdWarandtheRussianshadaleadonAmericawiththelaunchoftheSputniksatellite.TheUSdefencedepartmentsspecialresearchprojectsagency,thenknownasARPA(nowDARPA)sawAIasawaytogetahead.ThefirstAIlabwasestablishedin1959atMITunderthejointleadershipofMinskyandMcCarthy.FormorethanadecadeAIexperiencedagoldenage.Thefundingflowedandtherewereexcitingadvances.McCarthywrotetheversatilecomputerlanguageLISPtotackletasksmorediversethantrackingaircraftorbreakingcodes.Machineslearnttoassembleblocks,playtablesoccerandchess.MinskypredictedMICHAEL WELDON/THE JACKY WINTER GROUP58 COSMOS 59COSMOSMAGAZINE.COM COSMOSMAGAZINE.COMCOSMOS 5959SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEthatbytheendofthe1970samachinewouldbeatahumanchesschampionandhavegeneralhuman-likeintelligence.Andwhynot?Theywerealready1,000timesfasterthanhumansatcrunchingnumbers.Itdidnthappen.The1970scameandwentwithnochampionchessmachineletaloneahumanlyintelligentone.Worse,atleastforAIresearch,theVietnamWarendedandwithitthedefencedepartmentsenthusiasmforblue-skyresearch.ThegoldenagecloudedoverintoanAIwinter.ManyresearchersrelocatedtomorepragmaticjobsinIT.Theyhadtogetmoneyfromsomewhere;theydidapplicationspeoplewouldpayfor,explainscomputerscientistandauthorJoshStorrsHall.HansMoravec,anAIandroboticsresearcheratCarnegieMellonUniversity,recallseveryonewasdepressed.YetmanyoftheitemssetoutontheoriginalAIroadmaphadbeenachieved.Besidescomputerlanguages,Minskyandcolleaguesconductedpioneeringworkonneuralnetscircuitrymodelledonthewaythebrainworks.Inatraditionalcomputercircuittheoutputsignalisinstantlydeterminedbytheinputs.Butabrainneuronwaitsuntilithasprocessedinputsfromotherneuronsbeforesendingonasignal.Withexperience,someinputsareweightedmorehighlythanothers.Thatintermediateprocessinggivestheneuronthechancetolearntomakedecisionsbasedonexperience.Liketheneuronsinourbrains,neuralnetsweredesignedtolearn.McCarthymeanwhilehadsetuphisownAIlabatStanfordafterheandMinskyhadapartingoftheways.McCarthybelievedthefutureofAIlaynotwithneuralnetworksbutwithsymboliclogic,inwhichmachinesaregivenexplicitinstructions.OneofthetriumphsofthesymboliclogicapproachwasShakey,anungainlyrobotdubbedthefirstelectronicpersonbyLifemagazine.ShakeywasdevelopedatStanfordResearchInstitute(SRI),thenpartofStanford.(StanfordandSRIbrokeofftheirrelationshipin1970inthefaceofanti-warprotestssincemuchofSRIsfundingcamefromtheDepartmentofDefense.)Fittedoutwithacamera,sensorsandawireantennaconnectingittoaroom-sizedcomputernearby,Shakeycouldsolveproblemssuchashowtopushablockoffaplatformusingaramp.Itwasnotmuchdifferenttosolvingamathematicalequation.Toshifttheblock,itneededtopushtheramptotheplatform,climbtheplatformandshove.Theonlydifferencewasthattherobotwasactingitoutitintherealworld.ButShakeywasnotonlyshakybutslow.Andwhenitcametoneuralnetworks,asMinskyhimselfpointedout,theywereverylimitedinwhattheycoulddo.ItturnsouttheseearlydreamersofAIhadvastlyunderestimatedthepowerandcomplexityofthelivingmachinetheysoughttocopy.HansMoravecwasoneofthedreamers.TheAustrian-bornroboticsengineerbuilthisfirstrobotwhenhewas10.AsaPhDstudentatStanfordinthelate1970shebuiltarobotlikeShakeythatnegotiatedobstaclecourses.ThenhewentontoCarnegieMellonandin2003foundedSeegridcorporationtocommercialisehisfree-rangingrobots.Butbackinthelate1970sinStanford,Moravecbecameacutelyawareofthemismatchbetweenthehumanandroboticbrains.True,machinescouldleaveusinthedustwhenitcametocrunchingnumbers.Butnavigatinganobstaclecoursewasanothermatter.Ittookhisrobotmorethanfivehourstotravel30metres.AsMoravecputit,computerintelligencewasanillusion,androbotslaidthatillusionbare.Thereinlayapuzzlehowcouldacomputerbeathousandtimesfasterthanahumanatmaths,butsohopelessatvisualprocessing?MoravecturnedtoevolutionforananswertowhathasbecomeknownasMoravecsparadox.Mosthumansstrugglewithmathsbutweareabletonavigateourvisualenvironmentwithoutathought.YetvisiontakesenormousprocessingpowerasMoravecdiscoveredwhentryingtoteachhisrobotstonavigate.Muchofourvisionisdevotedtorecognisingedgesandmovement.Moravecwasteachinghisrobotstodosimilarthings.Butwhenheconsultedbrainresearcherswhowerestudyingvisionhelearntasoberingfact.Itturnedoutthattomimictheedgeandmotiondetectionfunctionsoftheretinawouldrequireamillionmillioninstructionspersecond.Hiscomputercoulddeliveronemillioninstructionspersecond.MimickingasliceofretinawouldrequireathousandtimesasmuchprocessingpowerastheentireStanfordcomputerroom!Thiscalculationwentsomewaytoexplainingwhyhisrobotsweresoagonisinglyslowatnavigatingobstacles.ItalsoledMoravectoponderthedifferencesbetweenmanandmachine.Visioniscrucialtooursurvivalandwehaveevolvedtoexcelatit,developinghighlyinterconnectedneurons(eachisTIMELINE: THE GOLDEN AGE OF AI1966THE AI DARK AGES THE GOLDEN AGE OF AI 197O SHAKEY, AN UNGAINLY ROBOT,WAS DUBBED THE FIRST ELECTRONICPERSON BY LIFE MAGAZINE1959BIRTH OF AI: the Dartmouth conference MIT AI Lab founded by Marvin Minksy& John McCarthy.Shakey the firstelectronic personHAL: Kubricks2001: A space odysseyIsaac Asimovpublishes hisclassic I, Robot19481950LISP: John McCarthydevelops a versatilelanguage for AI1958Cybernetics; a grand unifying theory ofanimal and machine intelligence19561968Gordon Moore observes that the processing powerof circuits doublesevery two years.1965Stanford AILab founded byJohn McCarthy.1962Alan Turing proposes the Turing TestTHE MANHATTAN RARE BOOK COMPANY; NATIONAL PORTRAIT GALLERY, LONDON; JOHN W. KNOTT, JR, BOOKSELLER ; AP PHOTO; MIT MUSEUM; ISTOCK; COMPUTER HISTORY MUSEUM60 COSMOS 59COSMOSMAGAZINE.COM COSMOSMAGAZINE.COMCOSMOS 5961SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE THERES A SLIGHT STIGMA ATTACHED TO AI FOR ITS HISTORICALLY INFLATED CLAIMS. MACHINE LEARNING IS A BIT MORE MODEST. Hepublishedhisideasintwoexuberantandcontroversialbooks,Mind Childrenin1988andRobotin1998.Theygazedintoafutureinwhichrobotevolutionvastlyoutpacedhumanevolutionandyetwerequitesanguineabouttheconsequences.Moravecsviewshaventchanged.Ashetoldme,Lookatthechainoforganismsinthetreeoflife.Itstopswithhumansbutcomputerskeepgoing.Headded,nospecieslastsforever.Moravecsaidhehadnottalkedtojournalistsfornearlyadecadepartlytodistancemyselffromfuturismthatmighthavefrightenedinvestors.Buthetoldmethepointofhisfuture-gazingwasneithertotitillatenortoterrorise.Iwasworkingoutmylifesgameplan.Moravecwasgoingtomakesmartrobotsandthegameplangavehimascheduleandmarchingorders.Imstillstickingtoit,hesaid.Fastforwardto2014andMoravecsgraphofrobotevolutionisnttoofarfromthemark.AsMooreforetold,mylaptopisprocessingattherateof100,000millioninstructionspersecond.Thatis100,000timesmorepowerfulthanMoravecs1980machine.Moravechadpredictedthiswouldmakemylaptopassmartasarealmouse.ButmammalianbrainsturnedouttobemorecomplexthanMoravecthought.Mycomputerisstillprobablyonlyguppy-smart.Nevertheless,evenmyiPhone,runningataboutafifththeprocessingcapacityofmycomputer,ispowerfulenoughtorunitsstarappSiri.YoumaytakeSiriandherilkforgrantedbynowbutstepbackamomentandconsiderhertalents.Siricannavigatetheambiguitiesofnaturallanguage.ForinstanceifIaskhertofindmesomegreatsci-fiflicks,shesbackinawinkwith,Ifoundquiteanumberofsci-fimovies.Ivesortedthembyquality.Shewasntwaylaidbythemultiplemeaningsofwordssuchasflickorgreat,somethingherpredecessorswouldgetsnaredby.Forinstance,computersofthe1950swereknowntotranslatethephraseoutofsight,outofmindintoinvisibleidiot.ButprocessinggruntdoesnotaccountforallofSirisabilities.Siriactuallylearns.Thesedayspeoplearemorelikelytolabelhertalentsasmachinelearningratherthanartificialintelligence.TheresaslightstigmaattachedtoAIforitshistoricallyinflatedclaims.Machinelearningisabitmoremodest,saysHorstSimon,deputydirectorofLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory(LBNL).YettheresnodoubtmachinelearninghasitsrootsinthegoldenageofAI.Machinelearningreliesonlearningpatternsfromvastamountsofdata,similartothewayhumanbrainsoperate.NeuralnetworksareoneofitsmajorlearningaidsonepowerfulnewiterationgoesbythenameofDeepLearning.(Theimprovementonthe1970sversionisthatnowthenetworksarelayered,conceptuallymimickingthearrangementofneuronsinthebraincortex).Siriherselfisadirectdescendantofthegoldenage.ThoughshehasbeenApplepropertysince2010hernamereflectsheroriginsattheStanfordResearchInstitute,thesameplacewhereShakeytookitsfirststeps.LikeShakey,SiriwasfundedbyDARPA.Heroriginslieina2003researchprojectnamedconnectedto10,000others)todomassiveparallelprocessingthatefficientlyhandlesthecomplextask.Butnumbercrunchingworksbestwithlinearprocessingandourbrainarchitectureispoorlysuitedtoit.Aboutathirdofourcortex,thekeyprocessingregionofthebrain,isdevotedtovision.Butthoseneuronsarentonlyusedforvision,saysMoravec.EveryonethinksthroughproblemsvisuallyKekul[the19thcenturyGermanchemist]couldseethestructureofbenzene.Otherpartsofthebrainseemtohelpoutwiththinking,too.AnenormousamountofprocessinginvolvestheperceptualandmotorcircuitryEinsteincouldfeeltheformula.(Nottomentionmanyofuswhotalkwithourhandsandgetourbestideaswhilewalking).SobyMoravecscalculation,quiteapartfromseeingormoving,ifmachinesweregoingtobeabletothinklikehumanstheywouldneedmassiveamountsofprocessingpower.Despitethegloomofmanyofhiscolleagues,MoravecwasupbeataboutthefutureofAI.Partlybecausehesanupbeatsortofguy.ButpartofhisoptimismwasinspiredbyreadinganarticleinElectronicsmagazinebyGordonMoore(co-founderofIntelCorporation)in1965.Thearticlenotedthattheprocessingpowerofcircuitswasdoublingeverytwoyears.Inthe1980sMoravecstartedmakingsomepredictionsaboutwhenrobotsmightstartreachingbenchmarksontheevolutionaryscale.Computersofthedaywerelikeslugs,takingfivehourstocrossaroom.Bythe1990stheywerelikesmallinsects.By2010theyshouldbemorelikeguppiesthetiniestoffish.Moravecplottedthesedatapointsonagraphandextrapolated.By2040or2050arobotwithhuman-levelintelligenceoughttoemerge.TIMELINE: AI THE DARK AGES AND TODAYAI MAKES A COMEBACK Ray Kurzweils text to voice Reading Machine,able to read magazines,newspapers and booksto a blind personIBMs Deep Blue Supercomputerbeats GarryKasparov1997IBMs Watson wins JeopardyApple launches SiriGoogle brain teaches itselfto recognize catsSamantha: Spike Joness HerGoogle deep learning networkoutperformsa human on CAPTCHA20142011201319782012KURZWEIL TECHNOLOGIES; LOUIE PSIHOYOS/CORBIS; OLI SCARFF/GETTY IMAGES;BEN HIDER/GETTY IMAGES; ISTOCK; MICHAEL WELDON/THE JACKY WINTER GROUP; GOOGLE62 COSMOS 59COSMOSMAGAZINE.COM COSMOSMAGAZINE.COMCOSMOS 5963SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL FEATURE: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEElizabeth Finkel is editor-in-chief of COSMOS. Michael Weldon is a Melbourne-based illustrator whose work has appeared in many publicationsincluding the New Yorker.CALOforCognitiveAssistantthatLearnsandOrganises.Itsgoalwasnottodevelopaphoneappbuttoprovidemilitarysupport.DescribedasthelargestAIprograminhistoryitinvolvedhundredsofAIexpertswhocametogethertotakemachinelearningtonewheights.AsBiancaBoskerwroteina2013articleintheHuffington Post,Italsodemonstratedthatamachinecouldlearninrealtimethroughitslivedexperience,asahumanbeingdoes.SiriunderstandsmewhenIsayfindmesomegreatsci-fiflicks,becauseshehasbeentrainedonavastdatabaseofcolloquiallanguageandcontinuallyupdatesherknowledge.Bycontrast,inthe1950stheytriedtoteachcomputersrulestounderstandlanguage,whichwasproblematic.Ifyoutryandteachlogicaldefinitions,youcant.Youhavetodoitthesamewayyourminddoesityouremembereverytimeyouhearaphraseandyoupickwhatyouwant,explainsStorrsHall.Machinelearninghasyieldedsomestrikingsuccesses.Forinstancein2012AndrewNg,directoroftheStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLab,collaboratedwithGoogletohookup1,000computerstoseehowtheywouldcategorise10millionimagesfromYouTube.Theycameupwithcatsandhumanfaces.Thisyeartwoiconsofhumansupremacyhavetoppledoffthepedestal.AccordingtoanAprilreportinArXiv(aplaceholderforresearchthatisyettobepeer-reviewedandpublished)fromIanGoodfellowandcolleaguesfromGoogle,machineshavelearnttooutdousatReCAPTCHA,thedistortedtextdescribedbytheauthorsasoneofthemostsecurereverseTuringteststodistinguishhumansfrombots.Anotherpreserveofhumansuperiority,facialrecognition,seemstohavetoppledwithaJunereportinArXivfromChaochaoLuandXiaoouTangattheChineseUniversityofHongKong,claimingthattheiralgorithmGaussianFaceoutperformshumansforthefirsttime.IBMsWatsonisanotherstunningexampleofthesuccessesofmachinelearning.In2012WatsonbeattheworldsreigningchampionsatJeopardy,thegameshowinwhichcontestantsmustfindthequestiontoananswer,sometimeswitharhyme.Forinstancetheanswermaybe:ItswherePelestoreshisball.Theright(rhyming)question:Whatsasoccerlocker?Watsonhadtounderstandnaturallanguage(thoughitwastypedinforhim)andtrawladatabaseof200millionpagesoftextincludingallofWikipedia.Ithelpedthathecouldreadattherateofamillionbookspersecond.NowhisphenomenalsearchingandanalyticaltalentsarebeingdeployedtohelponcologistschoosethebesttreatmentoptionsforpatientsatSloanKetteringCancerCenterandtestoutfinancialadviceattwooftheworldsbiggestbanks,CitiCorpandANZ.AndinAugustresearchersfundedbyIBMannouncedaradicallynewkindofcomputerchip.ComputershavebarelychangedtheirbasicarchitecturesinceJohnvonNeumanndesignedthemin1945.Thenewchip,TrueNorth,hasamorebrain-likearchitectureandpromisesbrain-likeefficiency.Arraysofthesechipscouldcrunchvastamountsofdata.Buttheycoulddoitusingathousand-foldlesspowerthanWatson.TrueNorthandsimilarnewdesignshavepeopleexcited.Weveyettofindoutjustwhattheycando.Itmakesmethinkbacktothefirstdigitalcomputer.Theyweredevelopedtopredicttheflightpathofamissile.Theinventorswouldhavebeensurprisedtoseethemnowbeingusedtoplayourmusic,organisephotos,oronlineshopping,saysHorstSimonatLBNL.TheseedsofAIappeartobesprouting.AndwithcompaniessuchasIBM,AppleandGooglerushingtotendthemitlookslikeanothergoldenagehasarrived.InthelastyearGooglepurchasedaBritishAIcompanycalledDeepMind,amongotheracquisitions,andappointedKurzweilasdirectorofengineeringtoteachmachinestounderstandwhattheyread.Itslike300yearsagoatthedawnoftheindustrialrevolution.Backthen,somefolkscouldseewherethesteamenginewasgoing,saysStorrsHall.InaYouTubeinterviewinMarch,GooglecofounderLarryPagesaid:Ourmissionwedefinedalongtimeagoistoorganisetheworldsinformationandmakeituniversallyaccessibleanduseful.Wereallyhaventdonethatyet.Itsstillvery,veryclunky.HeshowedavideoonthecapabilitiesofDeepMind,anAIprogramthatteachesitselftoplayvideogamesbywatchingthem.Itslearnttoplayallthesegameswithsuperhumanperformance.Wevenotbeenabletodothingslikethiswithcomputersbefore.PagenotedthatDeepMindwasthebrainchildofDemisHassabis,acomputerscientistandneuroscientist.Ithinkwereseeingalotofexcitingworkgoingonthatcrossescomputerscienceandneuroscienceintermsofreallyunderstandingwhatittakestomakesomethingsmart.PagecouldbespeakingstraightfromtheMinskyandMcCarthyAIplaybook.SowillwegettomeetaSamanthainthenextcoupleofdecades,orless?Onethingeveryoneagreeson:evenmachinesaspowerfulasWatsonstilllackcommonsense.HenryLiebermanwhoworksonAIattheMITMedialab,anoffshootoftheoriginalMinskylab,followedWatsonsprogressonJeopardyclosely.HepointsoutWatsonmakesmistakesbecauseitlacksthesortofexperiencehumansstartgatheringasbabiesitdoesnotknow,forinstance,thatwateriswet.LiebermangivesthefollowingexampleofoneofWatsonsmistakes.Clue:ItwasthisanatomicaloddityofUSgymnastGeorgeEyser.Watsonswronganswer:LegCorrectanswer:MissingalegWatsonknewfromitsvastdatabasethatlegwasananatomicalpartassociatedwithGeorgeEyser.Butitdidnothavethecommonsensetoknowthatthelegpersewasnottheoddity.Theodditywasmissingtheleg.Butifwelearnourcommonsensethroughexperience,whycouldntcomputerslearnittoo?ThatswhatLiebermanandhiscolleaguesaredoingnow.Weretryingtoputtogetheraknowledgebasetohelpmachinesbemoresensibleinarangeofcapabilities.Socomputerscanreadamillionbooksasecond,canlearn,andwithnewarchitecturesmaydoitverymuchmoreefficiently.Theymayalsolearnsomecommonsense.Sothen,whatsleft?Somethingbigitturnsout.Andthatistheabilitytogeneraliseatheoryfromdata.KevinKorb,anAIexpertatMonashUniversityinMelbourne,explains:LikeWatsonwesearchourdatabasesandrelyonpriorknowledge.Butwecanalsogeneralise.Weknowthat,forinstance,youcantpushacarwithapieceofstringeventhoughwevenevertriedit.Inasenseeveryhumanbeingisascientist,takingdataabouttheworldandbuildingtheoriesabouthowtheworldworks.Andsofarnoonehasfiguredouthowtoteachacomputertodothat.Wedontknowthegeneralcodeforlearning.Wevebeenstrugglingwiththatfor60years.KorbsprojectinvolvesteachingcomputershowtoarriveatageneralhypothesisabouttheatmosphericconditionsthatarelikelytoresultinfogatMelbournesairports.Iwanttounderstandscientificinductionandthenautomateit.LikeallAIresearchersIhavemodestgoals.Buthowfarawayissuchanachievement?Korbsuggests500years,partlytothrowcoldwateronoverheatedenthusiasm.HansMoravectoldmethatJohnMcCarthybelievedthatnailingthegeneralcodeforlearningwouldbepossiblebutwouldrequiretwomoreEinsteinsandthreemoreNewtons.McCarthydidnotbelieveitwasamatterofmorecomputingpower.Moravecdisagreedthen,ashedoesnow.Machineintelligencewillemergeincrementallywithincreasedcomputingpowerjustasitdidinthebiologicalworld,hebelieves.HorstSimondisagrees.Thisisabigdebate.Whyshouldsomethingfancyemergewhenyouscaleup?RightnowIdontseethat.SotakeyourpickfromthosewhosaythebitsandpieceswillleadtoSamantha,andthosewhosaythebitsandpieceswilljustbebitsandpiecesalbeitveryusefulones,thatwillendupbeingquitehardtodistinguishfromSamantha.Afterall,asMoravecputsit,thetruthaboutAIisthatnoonereallyknowswhattheyaretalkingabout. ITS LIKE AT THE DAWN OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. BACK THEN, SOME FOLKS COULDSEE WHERE THE STEAM ENGINE WAS GOING.In the late 1980s, robots had lessintelligence thanan insect. HereCarnegie MellonsHans Moravec poseswith Uranus, arobot for testing navigation programs. Moravec predictedmachines woulddevelop human-level intelligence by 2050. HANS MORAVEC