futures for higher education
TRANSCRIPT
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Futures for Higher Education
Scenario workshop
FACILITATOR PACK
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FUTURES FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
Trends presentation 2016
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This presentation focuses on three main trends
The funding of higher education in the UK
The demand for higher education
Innovation and evolution in higher education
A PICTUREFORTHE FUTURE?
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And these are points for the group to consider
Headline questions
• What are the key decisions that face your institution?
• How might these shape higher education in the UK and around the world?
• How do you see the future of HE in the long term?
Things to think about
• What sectors have changed beyond recognition?
• What sectors are starting rapid change now?
• What about ‘Black Swans’?
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These are some caricatures of the last decade
• Demand continuing to outstrip heavily regulated supply
• Persistence of a dominant 3 year residential degree model – prestige of traditional models
• Private providers and FE marginal or subordinate to universities
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We are now set for a liberalisation of the market
• Supply side liberalisation
• Tuition fee replacing grant – with more scope for differentiation in cost (Or not...)
• Stronger demand led focus on ‘quality’
• Introduction of amendable mechanisms to restrain taxpayer liability
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Others sectors have been through liberalisation
•Lots of small niche suppliers & some big value entrantsNew entrants?
•In what is offered in terms of services, pricing, support, etcInnovation? •Biggest and most financially sound of the ‘incumbents’Continued market
domination for a time?
•Amongst both original players and new entrantsFailures, mergers and take-overs?
•Ex ante to protect consumer interests and ex post competition lawNew regulation?
•An influx of foreign investment at some pointNew sources of funding?
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Will this lock in the shift to tuition based funding?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Indicative breakdown of funding between loans for the graduate contribution and HEFCE teaching grant, 2010/11 to 2014/15
Loans outlay to HEIs
HEFCE teaching grant
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What other questions will need to be resolved?
Immediate questions •Impact of government student number de regulation and incentives (AAB and £75000)
•The new regulatory framework – extent of any de regulation or liberalisation
Short/ Medium term questions
•Ending ‘moral hazard’ produced by government-backed loan – some risk transfer onto institutions•Reducing government exposure to cost of loan book through RAB charge adjustments•Setting student numbers free – ending student number controls•Use of competition regulation
Ongoing variable themes •Public value agendas of mobility, equality and access
•Research concentration v. diversification
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But addressing these trends is not simple
Brand Positioning Investment
Overseas academic and
industry partners for research
New competitors – US and Chinese
universities
Complex ethical and political landscape
Diverse student and staffing
needs
New organisational
challenges – HR, finance
Wider range of degree models
(1+2 etc)
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How will financial models evolve?
• Efficiencies: streamlining and new accounting practices?
• Costs: hollowing out of functions as part of efficiency and modernisation strategies – narrower focus?
• Funding: new models of private revenue?
• New ways of monetising the asset base – investment driven organisations?
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And what about ‘unbundled’ models of delivery?
• The role of technology in enabling the disaggregation of delivery and compartmentalised ‘products’
– The delivery process:• Content – syllabus, research & scholarship• Classroom – teaching, lectures, supervision• Infrastructure – IT networks, libraries, estates
etc
– The ‘product’:• Pay as you go tuition, credit accumulation• Examination, accreditation and validation• Assessment• Library services• Accommodation• Student finance?
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And social priorities will evolve – what will be the next one?
• The shift to a digital society: innovated and incubated by universities in the first place
• Will it all be about technological and social solutions for climate change, or something else?
Future of UK university research base, UUK 2010
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Some initial questions for the group
• What is right, wrong or missing from this picture: or have you heard it too often to care?
• What is most significant for you and what are you less bothered about?
• What are the most significant uncertainties and how might these shape outcomes?
• What other ways are there or should there be of looking at all this?