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FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

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Page 1: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

FY 2012 through FY 2014

1

The Executive BudgetK-12

Recommendation

Page 2: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

The Economy/Revenues

Projecting slow steady improvement over the next two years.

Personal Income: 3.5% to 4.5% average growthEmployment: 1.8% to 3.0% average growthS&P Growth: 1.0% to 4.0% average growth

2

Page 3: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

The Economy/Revenues

Base Revenue Forecast• Develop optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic.• Assume below baseline for both FY 2011 and FY 2012.

FY 2012 – 4.3% above FY 2011 actual

FY 2013 – 5.9% above FY 2012 projected

FY 2014 – 6.1% above the FY 2013 projected

All numbers exclude the impact from revenue sharing and the temporary sales tax.

3

Page 4: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Total Revenues

4

$8,909.8 $9,159.2 $8,664.1

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

$8,000.0

$9,000.0

$10,000.0

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014

Total State Revenues

Note:• Revenues are between FY 2006 & FY 2007 levels• Total revenue amounts include impacts from expiration of

Proposition 100 and phase in of existing tax reforms

Page 5: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Baseline Budget Picture

5

Page 6: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

The Budget: Principles

• Short-term decisions must be evaluated in light of their impact on the State’s long-term fiscal health.

• Funding for a program will not be restored simply because funding has been provided in the past.

• Spending decisions must respect the wishes of citizens who, in voting for Proposition 100, recognized the importance of funding for education, health care and public safety.

• Temporary resources will be used to improve the State’s long-term position.

6

Page 7: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

The Budget: Summary

FY 2012Debt Reduction $ 106.0SFB Building Renewal $ 100.0Midnight Reversion $ 41.0IT Phase I $ 10.0State Hospital $ 2.5AG Tobacco $ 1.4Total $260.9

7

Page 8: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

The Budget: Summary

FY 2013One-Time $ 253.3Good Government $ 38.9Rollover Reduction $ 100.0Public Safety $ 17.5Education $ 170.6Health and Welfare $ 77.2Natural Resources $ 14.4Total $671.9

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Page 9: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Where We End Up

9

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014Beginning Balance $3,243.0 $392,017.5 $587,960.3Revenue $8,909,761.0 $9,159,244.5 $8,664,139.3Total Available $8,913,004.0 $9,551,262.0 $9,252,099.6Expenditures $8,520,986.5 $8,963,301.7 $8,922,533.7Balance $392,017.5 $587,960.3 $329,565.9

Page 10: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Where We End Up

10

Page 11: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Risks

The Executive budget recommendation leaves a large balance at the end of FY 2014. These funds are there to address potential budget risks including:• Economic Disruptions• Federal Action• Lawsuits• Medicaid Expansion

11

Page 12: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Federal Health Care Reform

12

Page 13: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Impact of PPACA

13

General Fund Impacts of PPACAFY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

Caseload

AHCCCS - 77,516,600 297,792,700

DHS - 41,490,200 108,235,900

Total Caseload Costs 119,006,800 406,028,600 Primary Care Physicians 6,316,500 13,896,300 14,610,500 AHCCCS/DES IT Modifications 2,500,000 1,500,000 -

Total: 8,816,500 134,403,100 420,639,100

PPACA Federal MatchCaseload

AHCCCS - 587,980,700 1,856,909,400

DHS - 335,923,000 830,137,600

Total Caseload Match 923,903,700 2,687,047,000

Primary Care Physicians 61,225,200 134,695,400 148,164,900 AHCCCS/DES IT Modifications 12,500,000 8,500,000 - Total: 73,841,100 1,067,099,100 2,835,211,900

Page 14: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

K-12 Proposals

14

Page 15: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Rollover Retirement/Soft Capital

• Soft capital funding for schools is currently 10% of the formula.

• The State is currently deferring (rolling over) $952 million of K-12 payment.

The Executive Recommendation addresses both of these problems.

15

Page 16: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Rollover Retirement/Soft Capital

• The Executive recommends reducing the FY 2013 rollover by $100 million.

• The Executive proposes a $200 million payment to the school districts outside of the current formula to use for either soft capital or to cover the $100 million rollover reduction.

• For FY 2014 and beyond, the Executive proposes providing $100 million per year outside of the formula in conjunction with a $100 million reduction in the rollover. Districts will continue to use the funds for either rollover reduction backfill or soft capital.

16

Page 17: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

Rollover Retirement/Soft Capital

Example: District A

FY 13 Budget Capacity $1,000FY 13 Revenue $ 700FY 14 Rollover Revenue $ 270Shortfall $ 30

FY 13 Soft Capital/Rollover $ 60

District A can use ending balance or a portion of the soft capital/rollover funds to cover the shortfall. Remaining soft capital rollover funds can be used for soft capital.

17

Page 18: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

K-12 Education

Move on When Reading• Requires “that a pupil not be promoted from the third

grade if the pupil obtains a score on the reading portion of the AIMS test that demonstrates the pupil’s reading ‘falls far below’ the third grade level” beginning school year 2013-2014.

• Requires LEAs and schools to implement a comprehensive K 3 assessment system, a research based reading ‐curriculum, explicit instruction and intensive intervention to students reading below grade level.

• 4,100 (5%) 3rd grade students scored “falls far below” on the reading portion of AIMS in 2011.

18

Page 19: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

K-12 Education

The Executive recommends $50 million in support of intervention and remediation programs to begin in Kindergarten.

To provide the funding, the Executive recommends adjusting the K-8 Group A weight to provide the $50 million in state funding for Move On When Reading.

The Executive also recommends a review of the current exemptions from Move On When Reading.

19

GOVERNOR’SCORNERSTONES

#

Page 20: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

K-12 Education

School Safety• $686,000

– Educator Database • A mechanism to search educator information such as certification and

disciplinary information• State Board of Education will lead the development of the database

– Additional Investigators

Education Jobs Backfill• $35 million in CORL funds

Adult Education• $4.6 million to draw down $11.8 in federal funds

The Executive also recommends requiring school districts to sponsor schools through the State Board for Charter Schools

20

Page 21: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

Building RenewalExisting Formula

– No ability to link appropriations with outcomes– Does not take into account different climates and building

materials– Insufficient help for very small districts– Local prioritization issues

The Executive recommends eliminating the existing formula

21

Page 22: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

The Executive recommends a new Building Renewal program

• Develop a statewide system inventory• Funding based on system life cycle• Require districts to develop a five-year building plan• Require districts to participate in SFB online

preventative maintenance program to be eligible • Make districts responsible for component failures• Districts will apply to the SFB for funding based on

their five-year building plan and their system inventory

22

Page 23: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

Three-Year Transitional Building Renewal Grant Program

Recommendation• The Executive Recommendation provides $100

million to the SFB Building Renewal Grant fund to provide funding for the three-year transition period.

• The Executive Recommendation provides $40 million to school districts for their role in the new building renewal program.

23

Page 24: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

New ConstructionThe Executive recommends changing the new construction formula to include available space just outside the school district.

The SFB will: • project enrollment• determine which districts have insufficient space within their boundaries• divide each of those districts into four quadrants• select the highest growth quadrant• draw a 10-mile radius from the center point of the highest growth quadrantAll available space within the radius will count toward meeting the minimum space

guidelines for the district.

Since the State’s share of new construction costs will decrease, the Executive recommends increasing local district bonding capacity, returning half of the bonding capacity that was cut as part of Students’ FIRST.

24

Page 25: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

25

Page 26: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

26

Page 27: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

27

Page 28: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

28

Page 29: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

29

Page 30: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

30

Page 31: FY 2012 through FY 2014 1 The Executive Budget K-12 Recommendation

School Facilities Board

31

School District

Scheduled to Open

Awarded Funding

Awarded Funding Using 10-Mile Radius

Available Bonding Capacity

(5% ESD & HS/10% USD)

Proposed Bonding Capacity (10% ESD

& HS/20% USD)

Thatcher USD FY 2012 $ 1,330,152 $4,309,444 $ 8,618,887

Vail USD FY 2013 $ 6,530,981 ($ 900,522) $ 46,203,956

Benson USD FY 2014 $ 1,229,940 $ 1,099,041 $ 9,773,082

Liberty ESD FY 2014 $ 10,234,963 $ 537,335 $ 10,404,671

Laveen ESD FY 2015 $ 12,793,704 ($ 4,860,439) $ 5,929,122

Litchfield ESD FY 2015 $ 9,441,360 ($ 6,030,819) $26,188,362

Pima USD FY 2015 $ 1,937,115 $ 1,937,115 n/a n/a

Queen Creek USD FY 2015 $8,609,580 ($11,652,683) $ 12,269,634

Sahuarita USD FY 2015 $7,676,222 $7,676,222 n/a n/a

Total: $59,784,017 $9,613,337


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