Gedo Region

Deyr 2010/11

January 26, 2011

Information for Better Livelihoods

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

Field Access and Field Data Locations

Normal access in all livelihood zones and

districts of Gedo region

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern Agropastoral and Bay Agropastoral High Potential) Southern Agropastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of

income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main sources of food: purchase and own production

Gedo Agropastoral High potential are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchases.

• Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production.

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock &

livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own

production Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and

sheep/goat

Overall statement: Unfavourable climate in the region with below normal rainfall in most livelihoods of the region.

• Start of Season: started on time

• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Poor rainfall with low intensity and inadequate duration, frequency and amount in the entire region.

• Near average rains received in pockets of the north: Luuq district (Qoroyaale, Haarxoday and Galiya villages) received good rains in 3rd dekad of October (40 – 60% of normal) and 1st dekad of November.

ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11

Rainfall

ClimateVegetation Conditions

NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district/ land cover

Civil Security Situation:

• Conflict incidents occurred in October at Belethawa town.

• Militia build-up on the other side of the border (Ethiopian side) likely to cause another confrontation

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

• Displacement towards the main villages off the region and Mandera (Kenya).

• Imposed restrictions on trade movement in Gedo, with Belethawa and its surroundings to be most affected.

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Civil Insecurity

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates

Districts

Deyr 2011 Production in MT

Total Cereal

Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr 2009/10

Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr

PWA(1995-2009)

Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5-

year average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum

Baardheere810   810 19% 18% 17%

Belet Xaawo- - 0 - - -

Ceel Waaq- - 0 - - -

Dolow121 - 121 1008% 83% 587%

Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo

93 - 93 100% 37% 79%

Luuq177 - 177 104% 41% 179%

Gedo Deyr 2010/11 1,201 0 1,201 26% 22% 24%

AgricultureRegional Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends

Deyr Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2010)

Annual Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2010)

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates

Districts Livelihood ZoneCowpea Sesame Onion

Production (Mt) Production (Mt) Production (Mt)

Bardere Agro-pastoral 0 0 0

Riverine 30 0 525

Garbaharey Agro-pastoral 0 0 0

Riverine 15 0 270

Luuq Agro-pastoral 0 0 0Riverine 15 0 300

Beled haawo Agro-pastoral 0 0 0

Riverine 5 0 120

Dolow Agro-pastoral 0 0 0Riverine 13 0 300

Sub-totalAgro-pastoral 0 0 0

Riverine 78 0 1,515

Total 78 0 1,515

AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Good Crop Onion Harvest. Hiloshiid, Bardera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Riverine Labour Availability. Hamare, Dolow , Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10

Complete Crop’Failure. Tubaako, Bardhere, Gedo; FSNAU, Dec. 10

Good Maize Crop for Fodder. Bakalarose, Garbaharey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec . 10

AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Local Cereal

Cereal flow : Sorghum comes from Bay, though the supply reduced following the crop failure in Bay region. Maize is supplied from Dolow Adde (Ethiopia side)

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices

Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices

(Bardhere)

Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices

(Luuq)

Factors Influencing Sorghum Prices:

•Sorghum crop failure in all agro pastoral livelihoods of the region

•Reduction of sorghum inflow from Bay region following the sorghum harvest failure.

AgricultureRegional Trends in Daily Labour Wages

Regional Trend Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere)

Factors Influencing Wage Labour:

• Increased agricultural labour activities in riverine livelihoods as a result of interventions (canal rehabilitation, bush clearance, etc.) from last Gu season

• High inflow of casual labourers from agropastoral zones and neighboring regions (Bay, Bakool) into the riverine areas pushing the labour wages down.

Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate

(Luuq)

AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade (Labour/Cereal)

Regional Trend in

Daily Labour Rate / Sorghum

(Bardhere) : 6 kg/daily wage

Regional Trend in

Daily Labour Rate/ Sorghum

(Luuq): 8 kg/daily wage

Factors Influencing ToT:

• High sorghum prices.

• Decrease in labour wage rates.

• Deterioration of both pasture and water conditions.

• Abnormal migration of livestock to Juba and Ethiopia (Weeb and Mooyaale)

• Deteriorating livestock body condition, with the exception of camel.

LivestockRangeland Conditions, Water and Livestock Migration

LivestockDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Medium Camel Body Condition. Garbahaarey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

Empty Communal Water Catchment. Balanbaal, Ceelwaq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

Low Water Availability. El-Ma’aw, Garbaharey Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

Deteriorating Cattle Body Condition. Ceelcade, Garbahaarey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

RegionConception (Deyr ’10/11)

Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11)

Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)

Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11

Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)

Livelihoods Livestock Species

Gedo Low to None for all species

Camel: MediumCattle: MediumShoats: Medium

Cattle/Shoats: NoneCamel: Low

Camel: MediumCattle: NoneShoats: None

Southern Inland Pastoral

Camel: Near baseline (95% June11)Cattle: Decreased (25% of BL June 11)Sheep/goats: Decreased (20% of BL, June ‘11)

Southern Agro-pastoral

Same as SIP

Dawa Pastoral Camel: Increased (102% of BL June 11)Cattle: Decreased (21% of BL June ‘11)Sheep/goats: Decreased (23% of BL, June ‘11)

Livestock

Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices

Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Bardhere)

Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Luuq)

Factors Influencing L.Goats Prices:

• Poor livestock body conditions

• Low demand on livestock after the end of Hajj period.

Livestock

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade (Goat/Cereal)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Bardhere)

Factors Influencing ToT

• High cereal prices

•Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply on the markets.

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Luuq)

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Prices of most imported commodities remained relatively stable in the last six months

Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices:

• Increased commercial imports after the end of Monsoon season

• Removal of road check-points between Mogadishu and Gedo.

• Improved road accessibility (Mido Road).

Markets

Gedo: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct – Dec 10)

Rapid MUAC Screening (%

<12.5cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key

driving factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Gu 10

Gedo

Gedo PastoralGAM =26.4% SAM =4.4% (3.5% (FSNAU & partners, December’10, R=1)

Gedo RiverineGAM of 26.7% and SAM of 6.0% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1)

Gedo Agro-pastoralGAM of 25.3% and SAM of 6.5% (FSNAU & partners, December’10, R=1)

N/A High (>30%) and increasing number of acutely malnourished children reported in all livelihoods in the region( Source: TROCARE, AMA, SRCS , HIRDA HIS Data , September-December10 R=3)

OTP admission show high and increasing trend in the region (TROCARE, HIRDA, AMA- September-December10, R=3)

Aggravating factors-High morbidity with 40.8% of pastoral, 40.5% of agro-pastoral and 39.8% of riverine samples reportedly ill.-Limited access to health services among the rural people due to distance and insecurityPoor household dietary diversity -Reduced milk access -Poor access to sanitation (<20%) facilities and safe water (<15%)-Suboptimal child care/feeding

Mitigating factors-Improved Immunization status (vitamin A and measles) linked to CHD and polio campaign--Rehabilitation of severely malnourished through OTP-Increased income from sale of fodder among riverine communities -Provision of health services by humanitarian organizations

Gedo Pastoral – Very Critical- Deteriorated from Critical phase in Gu10

Gedo Riverine: Very Critical- Deteriorated from Critical phase in Gu10

Gedo Agro-pastoral Very Critical – ‘No change from Gu’10

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010

IPCSummary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: North Gedo: Dawa Pastoral - AFLC Watch, 75% P AFLC; Southern Agro-pastoral - 50% P AFLC & 50% P HE, Watch; Riverine – AFLC 50% P), Watch ; South Gedo: Riverine – BFI Watch, Southern Inland Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk; Gedo Agropastoral HP- AFLC 50% P AFLC, Watch; Southern Agropastoral - 50% Poor AFLC, Watch

• Acute malnutrition: Very Critical in Riverine, Pastoral and Agropastoral (deterioration from Deyr ’09/10)

• Food Access: In north Gedo: unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day

• Water Access: inadequate in the hinterland pastoral area.

• Destitution/Displacement: No direct displacement for all rural livelihoods.

• Coping: Deteriorating coping strategies

• Livelihood Assets: Livestock is deteriorating, cattle herd size significantly below BL

Main Contributing Factors:

• Significantly reduced cereal production (22% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure. • Poor pasture and water access/availability• Decreasing trend for cattle and sheep/goat (< 30% of baseline levels) but sustained camel herds• Decreased livestock reproduction and low milk production• Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade (6 –8kg of sorghum/daily wage and 40 –42kg of sorghum/goat)• Decreased number of saleable animals and reduced livestock prices • Abnormal livestock migration (towards Juba and Somali State of Ethiopia) and reduced milk availability

MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

Gedo - Affected Districts

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Baardheere 80,628 0 0 9,000 0

Belet Xaawo 42,392 9,000 1,000 11,000 1,000

Ceel Waaq 15,437 0 0 0 0

Doolow 20,821 5,000 0 5,000 1,000

Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 39,771 4,000 0 10,000 1,000

Luuq 48,027 9,000 1,000 9,000 1,000

SUB-TOTAL 247,076 27,000 2,000 44,000 4,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 29,000 48,000

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by

Livelihood Zones

Gedo Region and Affected Livelihood Zones

Estimated Population by

Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Gedo Agro-Pastoral HP 26,607 0 0 9,000 0

Dawa Pastoral 81,654 17,000 0 27,000 0

Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,236 4,000 0 2,000 0

Southern Agro-Pastoral 31,751 6,000 2,000 6,000 4,000

Southern Inland Pastoral 75,828 0 0 0 0

SUB-TOTAL 247,076 27,000 2,000 44,000 4,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 29,000 48,000

IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

District UNDP 2005 Urban Population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Deyr 10/11

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Deyr 10/11

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban

populationDeyr 10/11

Gedo Baardheere 25,544 8,000 3,000 43Belet Xaawo 13,597 3,000 0 22Ceel Waaq 4,559 1,000 0 22Doolow 5,674 1,000 0 18Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 17,252 5,000 2,000 41Luuq 14,676 3,000 0 20Sub Total 81,302 21,000 5,000 32

Poor Cattle Condition. Bardheera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

LivestockDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Trucked Water. ElWak, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Near Average Camel Body Condition. ElWak, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Poor Cattle Body Condition. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

A crop failure in Agropastoral. Bardheera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Maize Crop For Fodder. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Good Cash Crops. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Good Onion Crop. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

The End