Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

Northeast

Post Deyr 2010/11

26th January 2011Information for Better Livelihoods

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Deyr 2010-11 Seasonal

Assessment Coverage:

Performance of the Season Deyr 2010/11

Overall statement: The overall seasonal performance in Northeast was poor except in the localized areas of western Burtinle, Northern Galkacyo, Iskushuban and Caluula districts.

Start of Season:

Started on time in 3rd dekad of September in Hawd along the border, but the rains were generally patchy and less intensive.

Performance:No significant rains occurred in NE regions.

Bari region: The overall rainfall performance was poor except in parts of Caluula district.

Nugal region: Generally poor rainfall except from patchy rains along the borderline of western Burtinle district and Ethiopia.

Northern Mudug: No rains in the entire region with the exception of localized areas in northern Galkacyo.

Climate

Pasture and Browse condition

Overall pasture and water availability deteriorated in most parts of Bari, Nugal and north Mudug regions with the exception of Caluula and localized area in western Burtinle, bordering with the Somali region of Ethiopia.

ClimateVegetation Conditions

NDVI at the end of December 2010

Water Situation:

Availability & Access to Water in all Livelihood zones of Northeast is very poor as the Deyr rains missed. RFE shows 0-25mm which is 0-20% of the LTM

ClimateWater Conditions

Civil Insecurity

Overall situation: • Stable security situation in all of Northeast apart from:

B/Beyla: Tension related to clan retaliation in localized rural areas of Beyla district.

Galkacyo towns: Resource based conflict in northern Galkacyo

• Increased presence of sea pirates directly impacting fishing livelihoods.

Deyr 2010/11 Livestock

Migration

Livestock

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Conception (Deyr ‘10/11)

Calving/kidding (Deyr ‘10/11)

Milk production (Deyr ‘10/11)

Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ’11

Herd Size Recovery Projected at (June 2011)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Northeast Camel: none to low

Sh/Goats: none to low

Camel: Medium to Low in Bari & Mudug

None in Mudug

Sheep/Goat: Medium to low

Camel: Low to noneSheep/Goat: low to none

(Poor yield due to the drought )

Camel: Low in all regions

Sheep/Goats: Low to None in Bari regionButLow to medium in Nugal & Mudug regions

Hawd Pastoral

Camel: Slightly above Baseline. Slight decrease of 4% between Jun - Dec ’10 but expected to increase 21% in Jun ’11

Goat: Slightly below Baseline. Same as Jun ‘10 and projected unchanged in Jun 11.

Nugal Valley Pastoral

Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun ‘11

Sool Plateau Pastoral

Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 2% between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected further decrease of 20 % till Jun ‘11

Addun Pastoral

Camel: Same as baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected to increase by 23% in Jun ‘11 Sheep/goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but declined by 4% in Jun ’11

Livestock Livestock Exports-Bossaso

Livestock Water Prices

RAKO

Kalabayr Significant water price increases starting from September indicating water shortages due to Deyr season rain failure

Early commercial water trucking is ongoing in all livelihood zones

Prices of water range is SoSh 80,000-150,000 in Bari region. In Nugal and Mudug region the water price is between SoSh: 100,000-200,000 for one drum of water

Accumulated debts of poor pastorals is mainly incurred with water for livestock and human.

Debts level range US$ 300-400 in Bari region while in Nugaal & Mudug ranges US$ 200-300

Water crisis in Galdogob Mudug, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Dried up shallow well. Xamurre, Qandala Bari, FSNAU, Dec ’10

Poor L/S feeding with leaves, Darmadow, Qandala, Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10

Carcasses of Deyr off-spring, Iskushuban,Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10

Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Deyr 2010/11Local Cereal Flow

MarketsRegional Trends in Cereal Prices (Red Rice)

Regional trends in imported rice prices in:

1- Garowe market2- Galkayomarket3- Bosassomarket

1 2

3

MarketsLivestock Prices

Local goat prices:

1 -Garowe market

2 -Bossasomarket

3 -Galkayo market

1 2

3

MarketsTerms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice)

1 -Garowe market

2 -Bossasomarket

3 -Galkayo market

1 2

3

Trend in imported commodity prices compared to exchange rate

Markets

Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct –Dec10)

Rapid MUAC Screening

(% <12.5cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Gu 10

NE Hawd Pastoral (n=593)GAM:13.0%&SAM:2.9%;Oedema: 0.3%•CMR: 0.30/ 10,000/day

•U5MR: 0.62/10.000

Addun Pastoral=591•GAM: 12.0% SAM: 2.5%•CMR:0.71/10,000/day&U5MR:1.91/10,000/day.

Golis/Dharoor- assess. N= 659

•GAM: 11.1%, SAM: 2.1% •CMR: 0.13/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 0.3/10.000/day Sool Plateau: assessm.N=637

GAM: 8.3%, SAM: 1.6%•CMR: 0.45/ 10,000/day

•U5MR: 1.11/10.000/day Coastal Deeh: Assess. N=670•GAM:12.5 % SAM: 2.5%;•CMR: 0.38/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.1/10.000/dayNugaal assessment N=516•GAM:10.3%:SAM:1.0%•CMR: 0.71/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.91/10.000/day

Hawd: <12.5cm=3.7% <11.5cm=1.7%

Addun:<12.5cm=2.8% <11.5cm=0.6%

Golis:<12.5cm=.5.1%<11.5cm=0.5%

Sool Plateau:•<12.5cm=2.9•11.5cm=1.3%

Coastal Deeh: •<12.5cm= 6.5 •<11.5cm= 2.5

Nugaal•<12.5cm= 4.2 ,<11.5cm= 1.2

•Low proportion and but increasing in Hawd & Addun pastoral MCHs.(FSNAU, HIS, Jan – Dec’10, R=3).

•Low proportion and stable in Golis and Sool (Jan-Dec’10, R=3). Low

•Low proportion and stable (MOH, SRCS,Jan-Dec10, R=3)

•Low proportion and decreasing in Nugaal Valley( MOH,SRCS,Jan-Dec10, R=3)

OTP data shows increasing trend in last 3 months(UNICEF,Jan-Oct’10)

Hawd/Addun: •High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern •Low access to safe water 30.9% & 61.7% latrine 35.1% &54.3% in Hawd and Addun respectively•High morbidity: 34.6% in Hawd and 32.8% in Addun•low coverage of health programmes<80

Golis, Sool plateau, Coastal & Nvaley•High morbidity in Golis and Coastal•Low food access (low frankincense production, fishing and high temperature, cyclone impact .•Limited milk availability in Golis/karkaar.•Poor infrastructure in Golis and coastal areas.

Some mitigating factors • Interventions in Hawd and Addun(health, nutrition, WASH and Food Aid)•Gu impact on livestock•Active social support •High immunization status and Vit A supplementation except in Addun and Hawd .• Ongoing Child Health Days.

Hawd –Serious improvement from GU’10

Addun: Serious – Improved from post Gu’10 Very Critical

Golis: Serious Improved from post Gu,10 Critical phase

Sool Plateau: Sustained Alert since Gu ‘10

Coastal Deeh: sustained Serious since GU’10.

Nugal Valley: Serious- deteriorated from Alert in Gu’10

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct -Dec10)

Rapid MUAC Screening (%

<12.5cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving

factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Gu 10

NE Bossaso IDPs: Nut. assessment N=749•GAM:15.6 % •SAM: 2.8%;•CMR: 0.15/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.24/10.000/day

Garowe IDPs: Nut. assessment N=761•GAM:13.3% •SAM: 2.5%;•CMR: 0.31/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 0.41/10.000/day

Galkahyo IDPs: Nut. assessment N=869•GAM: 16.3 % •SAM: 2.6%;•CMR: 1/ 10,000/day •U5MR: 1.5/10.000/day

Qardho IDPs: Nut. assessment N=214•GAM: >10.6 % •SAM: 2.9%;•CMR: / 10,000/day •U5MR:/10.000/day

Bossaso: •<12.5cm= 15.1% •<11.5cm= 4.3%

Garowe IDPs: •<12.5cm= 9.6% •<11.5cm= 0.4%

Galkahyo IDPs: •<12.5cm= 5.1% •<11.5cm= 0%

Qardho IDPs: •<12.5cm= 13.2% •<11.5cm= 8.1%

•High>25 %, stable .(FSNAU, HIS, Jan –Dec ’10, R=3).

• N/A

•N/A

•N/A

High OTP admission and increasing trend s in Bossaso ( Jan-Dec’10, R=2)

Bossaso, Garowe and Galkacayo IDPs:

•High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern •Poor Housing conditions•Low access to safe water 28.5% %, 14.0%, 31.5% latrine 60.7 % & 41.7 %, and 65.4% in Bosaso, Garowe & Galkacayo IDPs respectively•Limited access to milk and milk products•Limited consumption of fruits and vegetables

Some mitigating factors •Child Health Days conducted in all IDPs.• >80% of Vitamin A and Measles vaccination Coverage•Access to humanitarian interventions•No outbreak of diseases reported

Bossaso IDPs Critical; improved from Gu’10 Very Critical phase

Garowe IDPs: Sustained Serious since post Gu’10.

Galkahyo IDPs: Critical -deteriorated from post Gu’10 from Serious

Qardho IDPs Serious:

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

Nutrition Situation, July, 2010

NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation, January, 2010

Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: HAWD: HE - NUGAL Eyl dist. (75% P HE; 25%P & 25%M AFLC); other districts (25%P HE, 75% P AFLC); Addun: HE -NUGAL & N. Mudug (50%P HE; 50%P AFLC; 100%M AFLC); Sool Plateau: BFI High Risk to AFLC(25%P AFLC); Coastal Deeh: BARI AFLC HR to HE(25%P HE; 75%P and 25%M AFLC); EYL and JARIBAAN – HE (100%P HE; 50%M AFLC); GOLIS-GAGAB – AFLC (100%P) -Watch

Main Contributing Factors: • Three previous seasons of poor rains (Golis/Gagaab and Karkaar/Dharoor zones)• Below normal or failed Deyr 2010/11 rainfall in all livelihoods• Failed production of frankincense and loss of fishing activities (East Golis/Gagaab, Coastal Deeh and

Karkaar/Dharoor zones)• Decreasing livestock herd sizes and low productivity• High death of Deyr off-spring• Low Terms of Trade• Poor infrastructure and difficult market access

NE Regions - Affected Districts

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Bari

Bandarbayla 8,976 0 0 1,000 1,000

Bossaso 57,725 15,000 0 15,000 0

Caluula 27,002 8,000 0 8,000 1,000

Iskushuban 36,519 5,000 0 7,000 1,000

Qandala 26,902 7,000 0 7,000 0

Qardho/Dan Gorayo 45,613 0 0 3,000 0

Sub-total 202,737 35,000 0 41,000 3,000

NorthMudug

Gaalkacyo 58,007 20,000 11,000 22,000 9,000

Galdogob 33,366 4,000 6,000 6,000 4,000

Jariiban 32,866 16,000 5,000 16,000 6,000

Sub-total 124,239 40,000 22,000 44,000 19,000

Nugaal

Burtinle 26,005 3,000 3,000 5,000 2,000

Eyl 25,259 3,000 2,000 6,000 4,000

Garoowe 24,596 2,000 3,000 3,000 2,000

Sub-total 75,860 8,000 8,000 14,000 8,000

GRAND TOTAL 402,836 83,000 30,000 99,000 30,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 113,000 129,000

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones

NE Regions - Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Bari

Coastal Deeh: sheep 7,699 1,000 0 2,000 3,000

East Golis Pastoral 85,474 26,000 0 25,000 0

Gagaab Pastoral 28,539 8,000 0 9,000 0

Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 32,793 0 0 2,000 0

Sool pastoral; camel&shoats 48,233 0 0 3,000 0

Sub-total 202,737 35,000 0 41,000 3,000

NorthMudug

Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 46,886 30,000 7,000 30,000 7,000

Coastal Deeh: sheep 5,259 2,000 0 1,000 1,000

Destitute pastoralists 7,126 0 8,000 0 7,000

Hawd Pastoral 64,969 8,000 7,000 13,000 4,000

Sub-total 124,467 40,000 22,000 44,000 19,000

Nugaal

Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 4,211 3,000 1,000 3,000 1,000

Coastal Deeh: sheep 7,014 0 0 1,000 2,000

Hawd Pastoral 43,178 5,000 6,000 8,000 4,000

Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 15,771 0 0 2,000 0

Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 4,211 0 0 0 0

Destitute pastoralists 1,476 0 1,000 0 1,000

Sub-total 75,860 8,000 8,000 14,000 8,000

GRAND TOTAL 402,836 83,000 30,000 99,000 30,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 133,000 129,000

IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

District UNDP 2005 Urban Population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Deyr ‘10/11

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Deyr ‘10/11

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population

Deyr ‘10/11

Bari

Bandarbayla 5,400 2,000 0 37

Bossaso 107,181 36,000 0 34

Caluula 13,000 4,000 0 31

Iskushuban 8,508 3,000 0 35

Qandala 15,600 5,000 0 32

Qardho 29,944 10,000 0 33

Sub-Total 179,633 60,000 0 33

Nugaal

Burtinle 8,669 4,000 0 46

Dan Gorayo 5,599 3,000 0 54

Eyl 7,086 3,000 0 42

Garoowe 33,395 15,000 0 45

Sub-Total 54,749 25,000 0 46

North Mudug

Galdogob 7,067 2,000 0 28

Jariiban 6,341 2,000 0 32

Sub-Total 13,408 4,000 0 30

The End