Juba Regions

Deyr 2010/11

January 26, 2011

Information for Better Livelihoods

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

Field Access and Field Data Locations

- Normal access in Buale, Sakow, north of Jilib district of M. Juba and Afmadow, Hagar, Jammame, Kismayo districts in L. Juba;

- Key informants in south Jilib including Jilib town and the entire Badhadhe district

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agropastoralists) Southern Agropastoral are more Agro pastoral Afmadow, L. Juba, than those in the M.

Juba and Jammame (L.Juba) who are more agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases

Lower Juba Agropastoral are more pastoral. Main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.

Riverine (M. and L. Juba)• Main source of income of poor : Crop sales, wage labour, self-employment (collection

of bush products) • Main sources of food of poor: Own production and market purchase

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of

livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel,

cattle, sheep/goat

• Start of Season: started late, 1st dekad of November. However, some light showers were received in 3rd Dekad of October 2010.

• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity; long dry spell in November-December months.

• Amount of Rainfall: Insignificant

ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

ClimateVegetation Conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

ClimateVegetation Conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security Situation:

• Relatively stable but tense

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

• High impact • Drastically reduced humanitarian

access and interventions.• Pull out (August-Sept) of 2 major

international NGOs (World vision and Horn relief) mainly implementing health and nutrition, wash and livelihood interventions.

Civil Insecurity

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Estimates

Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates

Districts

Deyr 2011 Production in MT

Total CerealDeyr 2011 as

% of Deyr 2010

Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr

PWA(1995-2009)

Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year

average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum

Afmadow 32 - 32 26% 15% 78%

Hagar - - - - - -

Badhaadhe - - - - - -

Jamaame 75   75 7% 14% 32%

Kismaayo 20   20 14% 10% 9%

Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total

127 0 127 7% 9% 18%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates

DistrictsDeyr 2011 Production in MT

Total CerealDeyr 2011 as

% of Deyr 2010

Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr

PWA(1995-2009)

Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year

average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum

Bu'aale 60 - 60 3% 6% 6%

Jilib 60 - 60 2% 5% 8%

Saakow 40 - 40 1% 2% 1%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total

160 0 160 2% 4% 4%

AgricultureCereal Production Estimates Plus Off-season Maize

Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season

Districts Deyr 2011 Production in MT Total CerealDeyr 2011 as

% of Deyr 2010

Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA

(1995-2009)

Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year

average(2005-2009)

Afmadow32 - 32 26% 15% 78%

Hagar - - - - - -

Badhaadhe - - - - - -

Jamaame 115   115 5% 14% 12%

Kismaayo 20   20 14% 10% 9%

Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total

167 0 167 5% 10% 12%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Off-Season Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season

Districts

Deyr 2011 Production in MT

Total CerealDeyr 2011 as

% of Deyr 2010

Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA

(1995-2009)

Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year

average(2005-2009)

Maize Sorghum

Bu'aale100 - 100 3% 6% 6%

Jilib 120 - 120 2% 5% 8%

Saakow 68 - 68 1% 2% 1%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total

288 0 288 3% 6% 5%

AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates

(L/M Juba)

Deyr Cereal Production Estimates in Somalia

Regions

Deyr 2010 Production in MT

Rice Cowpea Sesame OnionsOff-Season

CowpeaOff-Season

SesamePepper Total

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

 0 50 150  0 50 150  0 400

Juba Hoose (Lower)

 0 50 250  0 0  100  0 400

TOTAL 0 100 400 0 50 250 0 800

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Middle Juba

Regional Trend in

Deyr Cereal Production

(Middle Juba)

Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus

Off-season (Middle Juba)

Agriculture Annual Cereal Production in Middle Juba

Regional Trend in

Annual Cereal Production

(Middle Juba)

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Plus Off season in

Lower Juba

Regional Trend in

Deyr Cereal Production (Lower Juba)

Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Lower Juba)

Agriculture Annual Cereal Production in Lower Juba

Regional Trend in

Annual Cereal Production

(Lower Juba)

AgricultureDeyr 2010 Assessment Photos

Planted Farms Not Germinated, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Recede Cultivation in Dhesheks, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Planted Farms Not Germinated, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Insignificant recede cultivation, Jambarow Jammame, L. Juba, Dec ‘10.

Deyr ’10/11 Local Cereal Flow: Cereals come from Juba riverine (maize) and Sakow agropastoral (sorghum) into the interior of the region.

Agriculture

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions

Regional Trend in cereal prices (maize) -

Middle Juba

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices (maize) in Lower Juba

Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010

Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010, R=1.

Factors influencing cereal prices:

• Poor maize and sorghum production in agropastoral

• High maize demand (Juba inland)

Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability

Factors Influencing Wage Labor rates in agricultural districts.

Availability:

• Reduced agricultural activities following the seasonal rainfall failure.

•Limited agricultural inputs, which curtailed irrigational infrastructure

•Low capital for investments hindering employment opportunities.

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions

Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010

Middle Juba

Lower Juba

Factor Influencing ToT decline:

• Significant increase in maize prices.

•Decreased daily labour wage rates

LivestockRangeland Conditions and

Livestock Migration, Dec ’10

• Poor pasture across the region except river banks which is infested with tsetse fly.

• Poor water availability in the key pastoral areas.

• Poor livestock body conditions except camel.

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11)

Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11)

Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)

Expected calving/ kidding Jan-June ‘11

Trends in Herd Size (Deyr ’10/11)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Juba Camel: LowCattle: Low to NoneSheep/Goats: None to low

Camel: MediumCattle: High to Medium Sheep/Goats: Medium to High

Cattle: Very PoorCamel: Average

Camel: Medium to LowCattle: MediumSheep/Goats: None to Low

Southeast Pastoral

Cattle: Same as Baseline. Increased by 6% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 11% till Jun. ‘11Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 3% till Jun. ‘11

Southern Inland Pastoral

Camel: Same as Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected to sustain unchanged till Jun. ‘11Cattle: Below Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 with the similar pattern expected till Jun. ‘11Sheep/goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 3% till Jun ‘11

Juba Agro-pastoral

Cattle: Same as Baseline. Increased by 6% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 11% till Jun. ‘11Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 3% till Jun. ‘11

Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Poor Cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Afmadow, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Cattle Migration from North Sakow to Jilib Riverine, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘’10

Poor Lactating Cattle Body Condition. Jilib, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions

Regional Trend in Cattle Prices

in Middle Juba

Regional Trend in Cattle Prices

in Lower Juba

Middle Juba.

Lower Juba.

Factors Influencing local cattle prices:

•Disruption of Garissa market due to poor Deyr 2010/11 rainfall performance resulting in poor pasture and shortage of water along the livestock trekking route to Garissa market.

•Poor livestock body condition

Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade

Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions

Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Middle Juba

Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Lower Juba

Factors influencing Terms of Trade (cattle to maize):

• High cereal prices

• Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and low demand

• Disruption of Garissa market

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price Increases (last six months)

• Increasing global prices

• Increased taxation on commercial imports due to growing illegal tax collections

• Failed local cereal production and the need to import more commercial goods.

Markets

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings in Middle and Lower Juba Regions

Region NutritionSurveys

(Oct - ec10)

Rapid MUAC Screening (%

<12.5cm & <11.5 cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Gu 10

ML Juba Juba PastoralGAM =30.7% SAM =7.8% .5% (FSNAU & partners, December ’10, R=1)

Juba RiverineGAM =29.7% SAM = 6.4%

(FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1)

Juba Agro-pastoralGAM =26.1% and SAM of 6.2% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1)

Kismayo IDP -N=1185MUAC<12.5cm or oedema= 12.4%. R=2

MUAC<11.5cm or oedema= 0.7%. R=2

HIS data show high (>20%) and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in all livelihood s( Source: SRCS , AFREC, HIS Data , Sept- December 10 R=3)

OTP admission show mixed trends, in the number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP –with high and increasing trends in pastoral, high and stable number in agro-pastoral and high and fluctuating in the riverine livelihood ‘s facilities ( Source: SRCS , AFREC, MSF, HIS Data , Jan-June’10 R=3)

Aggravating factors-High morbidity – 21.8%,22.6% and 39.4% reportedly ill in pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods respectively-616 cases of AWD reported in November10 in the two regions-Limited access to food due to drought and insecurity- Increasing food insecurity at the HouseholdLimited/disrupted humanitarian assistance-Poor child feeding practice-Poor access to safe water and sanitation facilities-Reduced milk access due to outmigration and low livestock productionNegative impact of the withdrawal of INGO providing health and nutrition services in Aug.’10Restricted immunization activities

Mitigating factors-Limited social support from the local community & I/LNGOSale of fodder among riverine provides income for food/non-food itemsIncreased charcoal burning for income (but with long term negative impact on environment)

Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- deteriorated from Serious in Gu10

Juba RiverineVery Critical –No change from Gu’10.

Juba Agro-pastoral: Very Critical –Deteriorated from Critical levels in Gu10

NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates

Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011

Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010

IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Riverine – Sakow, Jilib & Jamame (HE: 100%P, AFLC: Middle 50%M); Buale (HE: 100%P, AFLC: 25%M); Agropastoral and S.E Pastoral – High Risk, HE: 25%P, AFLC: 75%P.

• Acute malnutrition: Critical to Very Critical• Food Access: Limited access of food and availability are average except Juba Riverine • Water Access: Severe water shortage• Destitution/Displacement: Emerged destitutions and seeking refuge to Kenya Refugee camps• Coping: Distress coping strategies• Livelihood Assets: Good production in Agropastoral areas and livestock recovery in terms of body condition

and livestock reproduction and holdings

• Main Causes: Consecutive seasons of average rainfall poor crop productions in Agropastoral areas Poor livestock production due to limited pasture and water availability South-East Pastoral, Lower Juba Agropastoral and southern Agropastoral: deteriorated due to poor livestock

and crop production, low livestock prices and relatively low ToT between cereals and local quality goats Juba Riverine: Crop production failure due to severe moisture stress

MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Middle Juba Bu'aale 45,901 0 7,000 8,000 9,000

Jilib 83,464 5,000 11,000 12,000 13,000

Saakow/Salagle 54,773 4,000 6,000 10,000 8,000

SUB-TOTAL 184,138 9,000 24,000 30,000 30,000

Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 0 0 7,000 3,000

Badhaadhe 32,828 0 0 7,000 2,000

Jamaame 106,734 6,000 14,000 12,000 17,000

Kismaayo 77,334 0 0 9,000 6,000

SUB-TOTAL 261,108 6,000 14,000 35,000 28,000

GRAND TOTAL 445,246 15,000 38,000 65,000 58,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 53,000 123,000

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones

Affected Regions and Livelihood ZoneEstimated

Population by Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0

Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 4,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 0 0 2,000 1,000 South-East Pastoral 18,232 0 0 4,000 1,000 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 0 0 12,000 4,000 Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 5,000 18,000 9,000 18,000 SUB-TOTAL 184,138 9,000 24,000 30,000 30,000

Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0

Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 0 0 14,000 7,000 South-East Pastoral 38,810 0 0 9,000 3,000 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 0 0 3,000 1,000 Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 6,000 14,000 9,000 17,000 SUB-TOTAL 261,108 6,000 14,000 35,000 28,000

GRAND TOTAL 445,246 15,000 38,000 65,000 58,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 53,000 123,000

District UNDP 2005 Urban Population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Deyr 10/11

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Deyr 10/11

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population

Deyr 10/11

Middle Juba

Bu'aale 13,588 0 7,000 52

Jilib 29,951 0 15,000 50

Saakow/Salagle 11,200 0 4,000 36

Sub-Total 54,739 0 26,000 47

Lower Juba

Afmadow/Xagar 7,122 2,000 0 28

Badhaadhe 5,812 2,000 0 34

Jamaame 22,415 8,000 0 36

Kismaayo 89,333 16,000 0 18

Sub-Total 124,682 28,000 0 22

IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

The End