global futures intelligence system talk at wfsf 2013
TRANSCRIPT
The Millennium Project
Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS)
www.themp.org
Presented byProf. Univ. Dr. Adrian Pop
Romania Node Chair
UN
Organizations
NGOs
Universities
GovernmentsCorporations
The Millennium
Project
… a TransInstitution collaborative system
The Millennium Project
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views
Millennium Project Nodes
Purposes of The Millennium Project
• Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking about the future
• Make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in
• policymaking
• advanced training
• educational curricula• public education
• Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom about potential futures
Work of The Millennium Project
• Perform substantive studies using global network(s)
• Assist Nodes in design and performance of Node-initiated studies
• Identify and track global issues• Publish annual State of the Future reports• Develop methodologies • Publish Futures Research Methods
Content, Methodologies, Collaboration
System for people to think together about the future
• 49 Nodes connecting global and local perspectives
• Real-Time Delphi for rapid assessment and feedback framework to understand and track global change
• State of the Future reports with 15 Global Challenges
• Educational contributions
• more than 200 Interns from some 30 countries trained since 1996
• about 1,000 universities use MP materials
• Inclusive and Participatory System to Measure Change
• State of the Future Index – Global and National Indexes
• Largest collection of methods to explore the future
• 37 Methods, 39 Chapters, 1,300 pages, peer reviewed
• Collective Intelligence System bringing it all together in one online platform … GFIS
15 Global Challenges
… and Other Research
One of Today’s Greatest Challenges…
Information overload…
From Noise to Relevance
Wisdon
Knowledge
Information
Data
Intelligence
Text and data mining techniques are good at addressing:
• WHO?• WHAT?• WHEN?• WHERE?
Additional questions usually require more human insight:
• HOW?• WHY?
Types of Questions
Collective Intelligence
• It is an emergent property• from synergies among
• data/info/knowledge• software/hardware• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from feedback• to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for
better decisions• than these elements acting alone
Why Collective Intelligence?
• The volume, velocity, and variety of information and change are increasing exponentially
• The data, information, knowledge, intelligence explosion is accelerating
• Local issues depend on global developments• The MP work shows that humanity has the
knowledge to address the challenges ahead • Will we use that knowledge to make the decisions
necessary?• We believe collective intelligence can help
Synergies
Experts and those with Insight
• Experts identified through literature searches, nomination by peers, recommendations of professional organizations, and self-selected.
• Important qualifications are their discipline, experience, work, interests, and creativity.
• Provide inputs in their area of expertise and/or make recommendations for other challenges.
• Policymakers as users and generators of information.
• Information cross-referenced and peer-reviewd.
• Information fed into GFIS.
Cooperation
Global Challenges Resources…
1) Current Situation;
2) Desired Situation;
3) Policies to address the gap
Latest edits
Overview
-short
-detailed
-regional consid.
-actions
-comments
Annotated and
rated articles
Automatic news feeds
Quantitative and qualitative analysis tools
Summary of recent scans, edits, models, papers, resources, discussions
web, books, papers, videos
…and Feedback with Updating
Initiated by users or editors on specific topics
Response to questions or add new questions
From users -- provide new insights
and views from the public on
gov. programs, research, policies, etc.
SOFI Continuous updating
Compendium of Resources
Just-in-time Knowledge
Learns from Feedback
Usefulness• Access the full text of the State of the Future and the
Futures Research Methodologies
• Stay updated on the global situation
• Gain new insights
• Receive expert responses to specific questions
• Improve research on the future
• Prepare for talks, meetings, seminars, etc.
• Engage others in the organization to participate
• As basic “text” in teaching
• Reference tool
• Publishing relevant work
• Review methods
• Sub-element or tool in proposals
Looking forward to your collaboration
GFIS
https://themp.org
to subscribe:http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html