Robust decisions in uncertain times

WFSF: 21st World Conference

6/28/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1

“Here be Dragons” Connecting a changing world to strategic

decisions

Gill Ringland CEO & Fellow, SAMI Consulting

June 2013

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Here be dragons ------

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

WEF Global Risks 2013

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1000

100

Perc

eiv

ed im

pa

ct

US

BN

$

Perceived likelihood in next 10 years

Robust decisions in uncertain times

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Energy pressures

400

300

200

100

0

Gigajoules per capita

0 10 20 30 40

GDP per capita

USA

Europe, Japan, Korea

China, India

Robust decisions in uncertain times

The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable

long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already

0

Carbon dioxide

Species extinction rate

Nitrogen cycle

Phosphorus cycle

Stratospheric

ozone depletion

Ocean acidification

Freshwater use

Change in land use

Sustainable limit

Environmental pressures

©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 28/06/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Effective at renewal ?

Efficiency

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Asset allocation

Traditional hierarchy

©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow

Ad hoc

activities,

lobbying etc

Present and future operating environment

Organisations facing change

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Role of futurists ?

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Organisation

knows the answer doesn’t know the answer

In

div

idual

Know

s the a

nsw

er

doesn’t k

now

the a

nsw

er

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Futures Council, TCBE

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Consultant Line manager

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future

Engineer manager thinker

Early indicators Portfolio Ideas & systems Alternate “843” trends

Decisions, management Planning worlds interconnected

Timelines Options

Decisions

Thinking styles

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Foxes and hedgehogs

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Effective at renewal,

foxes

Efficiency, hedgehogs

Asset allocation

Traditional hierarchy

©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow

Planning

and ensuring

renewal

machinery

works

Present and future operating environment

Organisations and change

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Applying this to the EC

28/06/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 ©2009 Ringland

• EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking Activities)

one of the Commission’s 3 senior standing advisory

groups on R&I policy

– set up in September 2011

• Mission

• Enhance collective intelligence and help devise better long-term

European policies

• Core assumption

– Intermediaries are need to interpret futures findings for senior

policymakers

• Adopted a strategy cycle from TEKES in Finland as the

basis for aligning to the EC’s R&I cycle

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process

Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)

Robust decisions in uncertain times

EC R&I context

• Strategic process:

– Strategic Intelligence – cast wide

– Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of

experts and individuals - strong link to Selecting priorities

– Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting

Priorities

• “Hub” : intermediaries to interpret futures findings for

policy makers

– NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an

anchor for effectiveness;

– also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at

the right time

– NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources,

antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semi-

automated scanning

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Horizon scanning

SS

ANZ HSN

Meta AJASN

RAHS

Risk Assessment

& Horizon

Scanning

SS

Sigma

Scan

ANZ HSN

Aus & NZ

Horizon

Scanning

Network

Meta

Metafore/

SemaDyson

AJASN

Aus Joint

Agencies

scanning

Network

RAHS iK

iKNow

iK

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Sense making steps

• Need for sponsor – what question are we trying

to answer?

– Exploring different visions

– Analysing trends

– Analysing drivers

– Creating different scenarios

– Building the strategy options

– Selection of priorities

• Links from Strategic Intelligence and to Selecting

Priorities

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

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How to integrate the process into real life?Example – preparing H2030

Activity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Process management

Phase I Strategic intelligence

Phase IISense-making

Phase IIISelecting priorities

Phase IVImplementation

Start Mid-term evaluation of H2020

Involves input fromknowledgestakeholdersand MS

The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3).

Involves MS and Commission.

InvolvesEuropeanParliament and Commission.

InvolvesCouncil.

Involves MS and Commission.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Thank you!

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Questions and comments??