Global Warming and EnergyGlobal Warming and EnergyConservationConservation

Kyoto Protocol:Kyoto Protocol:

Stimulus for New TechnologiesStimulus for New Technologies

Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions

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Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide ConcentrationsConcentrations

The Smoking GunThe Smoking Gun

Surface Air Temperature Surface Air Temperature AnomalyAnomalyGlobal MeanGlobal Mean

The AtmosphereThe Atmosphere

CCS-2

The 1990s were warmer than at The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 yearsanytime during the last 1000 years

CCS-3

Human activities have changed the Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since composition of the atmosphere since

the industrial erathe industrial era

CCS-4

Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions Projected surface temperatures for the 21st century Projected surface temperatures for the 21st century

would be unheralded in the last 1000 yearswould be unheralded in the last 1000 years

CCS-5

COCO2 2 EmissionsEmissions

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COCO2 2 EmissionsEmissions

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Land areas warm more than the oceans with the greatest Land areas warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudeswarming at high latitudes

Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions

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Some areas are projected to become wetter, others Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drierdrier

Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions

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Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions Crop yields are projected to Crop yields are projected to

decrease throughout the decrease throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, but tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudesincrease at high latitudes

Percentage change in average crop Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of COscenario. Effects of CO22 are taken are taken

into account. Crops modeled are:into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice.wheat, maize and rice.

Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions Run-off is projected to increase in some areas but Run-off is projected to increase in some areas but

decrease in others, especially in the sub-tropicsdecrease in others, especially in the sub-tropics

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N.A

GL

EU

C.A

CCS-13

WHAT DO MODELS SAYWHAT DO MODELS SAYABOUT HUMAN-CAUSEDABOUT HUMAN-CAUSED

GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING

A Doubling of COA Doubling of CO22 Will Produce Will Produce a Warming Between 1.5 - 4.5 a Warming Between 1.5 - 4.5 Degrees C (2.7 - 8.1 degrees F)Degrees C (2.7 - 8.1 degrees F)

The Observed Global Warming is The Observed Global Warming is Generally Consistent With Model Generally Consistent With Model CalculationsCalculations

The CO2/Climate DilemmaThe CO2/Climate DilemmaOver the Next Century:Over the Next Century:

Exceeding 2 x COExceeding 2 x CO2 2 is Almost is Almost GuaranteedGuaranteed

Significant Climate Change is Significant Climate Change is InevitableInevitable

Energy Demand Growth is Very Energy Demand Growth is Very LargeLarge

Current “Non COCurrent “Non CO22” Energy is ” Energy is InsufficientInsufficient

..

..

..

ALL POTENTIAL IMPACTSREMAIN POORLY QUANTIFIED

ALL POTENTIAL IMPACTSREMAIN POORLY QUANTIFIED

Potential Impacts of Potential Impacts of Climate ChangeClimate Change

Agricultural ProductivityAgricultural Productivity Forest ResourcesForest Resources Increased Wet-Area FloodingIncreased Wet-Area Flooding Increased Dry-Area DroughtsIncreased Dry-Area Droughts Water ResourcesWater Resources Unmanaged EcosystemsUnmanaged Ecosystems

Relative Contribution of Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in U.S.Greenhouse Gases in U.S.

81%

11%3% 2% 3%

CO2

CH4

N20

HFCs, PFCsand SF6Others

Climate ForcingClimate Forcing(Since year 1765)(Since year 1765)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

YearYear

1990 2010 2030 20501990 2010 2030 2050

United Nations Environmental ProgramUNEP / EPA (1994) Scenario for HFCsIPCC (IS92a) Scenario for all other gases

United Nations Environmental ProgramUNEP / EPA (1994) Scenario for HFCsIPCC (IS92a) Scenario for all other gases

Carbon Dioxide

Nitrous OxideNitrous Oxide

MethaneMethane

CFCs & HCFCs HFCsHFCs

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A

HFC-407C

HFC-245fa

GW

P (

CO

2=

1.0

)

                                                         

                 

Climate Change Science

CCS-9

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Sets Greenhouse GasSets Greenhouse Gas

Emissions LimitsEmissions Limits

Signed December 1997Signed December 1997

Agreement reached by 181 Agreement reached by 181 CountriesCountries

Annex I and Non-Annex I Fossil Fuel Carbon Annex I and Non-Annex I Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions:Emissions:

20.020.0

18.018.0

16.016.0

14.014.0

12.012.0

10.010.0

8.08.0

6.06.0

4.04.0

2.02.0

001990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

BAUBAU

Annex I Emissions = Non-Annex I Emissions in 2035

Annex I Emissions = Non-Annex I Emissions in 2035

PgC

/yr

PgC

/yr

Non-Annex I(Developing Countries)

Annex I(Developed Countries)

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Controls EMISSIONS (no phase out) of Controls EMISSIONS (no phase out) of greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases

COCO22, N, N22O, CHO, CH44, HFCs-PFCs-SF, HFCs-PFCs-SF66

No Developing Country controls No Developing Country controls requiredrequired

Basket of gases – each country/region Basket of gases – each country/region determine own responsedetermine own response

CCI-2

Global Climate Change - Global Climate Change - Berlin MandateBerlin Mandate

Science AssessmentScience Assessment– ““discernible human influence on global climate”discernible human influence on global climate”– Increase of 2Increase of 2ooC from 1990 - 2100C from 1990 - 2100– Sea Level rise by 50 cm 1990 - 2100Sea Level rise by 50 cm 1990 - 2100– Stabilization at 2x pre-industrial levels requires Stabilization at 2x pre-industrial levels requires

50% reduction50% reduction Technical and Economic AssessmentTechnical and Economic Assessment

– Reductions are technically possibleReductions are technically possible– Reductions are economically feasibleReductions are economically feasible– ““No-Regrets” opportunities are availableNo-Regrets” opportunities are available

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolGreenhouse Gas CoverageGreenhouse Gas Coverage

Six (6) GasesSix (6) Gases– Carbon Dioxide -- COCarbon Dioxide -- CO22

– Methane -- CHMethane -- CH44

– Nitrous Oxide -- NNitrous Oxide -- N22OO– Hydrofluorocarbons -- HFCsHydrofluorocarbons -- HFCs– Perfluorocarbons -- PFCsPerfluorocarbons -- PFCs– Sulfur hexafluoride -- SFSulfur hexafluoride -- SF66

Base PeriodBase Period– 1990 for CO1990 for CO22 , CH , CH44 , and N , and N22OO

– 1990 or 1995 for HFCs, PFCs, and SF1990 or 1995 for HFCs, PFCs, and SF66

Kyoto Protocol --Kyoto Protocol --Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries

Targets & TimetablesTargets & Timetables– 34 Countries34 Countries– Differentiated TargetsDifferentiated Targets– 5.2 Percent Avg. reduction (versus 5.2 Percent Avg. reduction (versus

1990)1990)– 6 Greenhouse gases6 Greenhouse gases– Commitment period 2008 - 2012Commitment period 2008 - 2012

Kyoto Protocol --Kyoto Protocol --Country TargetsCountry Targets

CountryCountry % of base% of baseAustraliaAustralia 108x 108x

AustriaAustria 92 92

BelgiumBelgium 92 92

BulgariaBulgaria 92 92

CanadaCanada 94 94

CroatiaCroatia 92x 92x

Czech RepublicCzech Republic 92 92

DenmarkDenmark 92 92

EstoniaEstonia 92 92

European CommunityEuropean Community 92 92

FinlandFinland 92 92

FranceFrance 92 92

GermanyGermany 92 92

GreeceGreece 92 92

HungaryHungary 94 94

IcelandIceland 110 110

CountryCountry % of base% of baseItalyItaly 92 92

JapanJapan 94 94

LithuaniaLithuania 92 92

NetherlandsNetherlands 92 92

New ZealandNew Zealand 100 100

NorwayNorway 101 101

Poland Poland 94 94

PortugalPortugal 92 92

RomaniaRomania 92 92

Russian FederationRussian Federation 100 100

SpainSpain 92 92

SwedenSweden 92 92

SwitzerlandSwitzerland 92 92

UkraineUkraine 100 100

United KingdomUnited Kingdom 92 92

United StatesUnited States 93)x 93)x

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolPolicies and MeasuresPolicies and Measures

Enhancement of energy efficiencyEnhancement of energy efficiency Increase use of new and renewable Increase use of new and renewable

forms of energyforms of energy Phase out market imperfectionsPhase out market imperfections Limit or reduce emissions of Limit or reduce emissions of

greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolClean Development MechanismsClean Development Mechanisms

Emission reduction credits for Emission reduction credits for projects between projects between allall parties parties

Sharing TechnologiesSharing Technologies Exporting TechnologiesExporting Technologies

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries Details at COP - 10Details at COP - 10

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol RatificationRatification

– February 16, 2005February 16, 2005– 55 countries ratify (112 ratified)55 countries ratify (112 ratified)– 55% of Developed Country Emissions 55% of Developed Country Emissions

Second Commitment PeriodSecond Commitment Period

DENMARKDENMARKHFC PHASEOUT LAWHFC PHASEOUT LAW

GENERAL HFC BAN - 2006GENERAL HFC BAN - 2006 COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR

CONDITIONING PLANTS HFC BAN FOR CONDITIONING PLANTS HFC BAN FOR SYSTEMS WITH 10kg OR HIGHER - SYSTEMS WITH 10kg OR HIGHER - 20072007

EXEMPT FROM BANEXEMPT FROM BAN– COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR

CONDITIONING PLANTS WITH 0.15 - 10kg.CONDITIONING PLANTS WITH 0.15 - 10kg.– COOLING SYSTEMS FOR PROCESS HEAT COOLING SYSTEMS FOR PROCESS HEAT

RECOVERY WITH CHARGE LESS THAN 50kg.RECOVERY WITH CHARGE LESS THAN 50kg.

AUSTRIA AUSTRIA HFC PHASEOUT LAWHFC PHASEOUT LAW

APPLIANCE HFC BAN - 2008APPLIANCE HFC BAN - 2008 AIR CONDITIONING AND MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING AND MOBILE

REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 2008REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 2008

SWITZERLANDSWITZERLANDHFC PHASEOUT LAWHFC PHASEOUT LAW

DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 20032003

AIR CONDITIONERS HFC BAN - 2005AIR CONDITIONERS HFC BAN - 2005 MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING HFC BAN - MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING HFC BAN -

20082008

EUROPEAN UNIONEUROPEAN UNIONDRAFT HFC REGULATIONDRAFT HFC REGULATION CONTAINMENT OF HFCsCONTAINMENT OF HFCs

– PREVENT AND MINIMIZE LEAKAGEPREVENT AND MINIMIZE LEAKAGE– MANDATORY INSPECTIONSMANDATORY INSPECTIONS– LEAKAGE DETECTION SYSTEMSLEAKAGE DETECTION SYSTEMS– MAINTENANCE OF RECORDSMAINTENANCE OF RECORDS

RECOVERY OF HFCsRECOVERY OF HFCs TRAINING AND CERTIFICATIONTRAINING AND CERTIFICATION AUTOMOBILE HFC-134a BANAUTOMOBILE HFC-134a BAN

– No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 20122012

– Prohibit sale of vehicles with HFCs greater than 150 in Prohibit sale of vehicles with HFCs greater than 150 in 20182018

ODP versus GWPODP versus GWPCFC-11

12113114115

HCFC-22123124

141b142b

HFC-32125

134a143a152a

227ea236fa245fa

ODP (relative to R-11) GWP (relative to CO2)

0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November 2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments) © JMC 2001

Arthur D. LittleGlobal Comparative Analysis

of HFC Technologies forRefrigeration, AirConditioning, Foam,Solvent, AerosolPropellant, and FireProtection Applications

This report was prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc. for theaccount of the Alliance for Responsible AtmosphericPolicy. The material in it reflects Arthur D. Little’sbest judgment in light of information available to it atthe time of preparation. Any use which a third partymakes of this report, or any reliance on or decisionsto be based on it, are the responsibility of such thirdparties. Arthur D. Little accepts no responsibility fordamages, if any, suffered by any third party as a resultof decision s made or actions taken based on thisreport

Final Report to the Alliance for ResponsibleAtmospheric Policy

March 21, 2002

Prepared by:John DieckmannArthur D. Little, Inc.

Total Equivalent Warming Impacts Total Equivalent Warming Impacts (TEWI)(TEWI)

300 Ton Chillers And Cooling Towers At Two Cost 300 Ton Chillers And Cooling Towers At Two Cost LevelsLevels

00

5050

100100

150150

Direct - RefrigerantDirect - RefrigerantIndirect - ElectricIndirect - Electric

R-11R-11 R-123R-123 R-22R-22R-12R-12 R-134aR-134a

Com

para

tive W

arm

ing

(%

)C

om

para

tive W

arm

ing

(%

)

©JMC - Dec 92©JMC - Dec 92

Chiller Efficiency ProgressChiller Efficiency Progress Efficiency - kW/ton Efficiency - kW/ton

YearYear AverageAverage GoodGood19791979 .80.80 .72.72

19801980 .72.72 .68.68

19901990 .65.65 .62.62

19931993 .63.63 .55.55

19951995 .61.61 .52.52

19971997 .60.60 .49.49

19991999 .59.59 .48.48

20032003 .56 .45 .56 .45

* * 1979 - 2003 . . . Over 35% improvement.1979 - 2003 . . . Over 35% improvement.

Ozone Depletion Potential and Global Ozone Depletion Potential and Global Warming Potential of CFC AlternativesWarming Potential of CFC Alternatives

22142b

143a125134a32152a

123

141b

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

GWP (100 year)

OD

P

Refrigerant Options

R-170 (Eth)

R-600 (But)R-717 (NH3)

R-32R-290(PropR-600a(Isobut)

R-11

R-123

R-125

R-134a

R-12R-22

R-744(CO2)

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200Condensing Pressure - PSIA

COP

FlammableNon-FlammableTE = 5FTC = 86F

Refrigerants Tested in AREPRefrigerants Tested in AREPR-22 AlternativesR-22 Alternatives

R-134aR-134a

R-290 (propane)R-290 (propane)

R-717 (ammonia)R-717 (ammonia)

R-410aR-410a (R-32/125 [50/50]) (R-32/125 [50/50])

R-32/134a [20/80]R-32/134a [20/80]

R-32/134a [25/75]R-32/134a [25/75]

R-32/134a [30/70]R-32/134a [30/70]

R-32/134a [40/60]R-32/134a [40/60]

R-32/134a [45/55]R-32/134a [45/55]

R-32/125/134a [10/70/20]R-32/125/134a [10/70/20]

R-407cR-407c ( (R-32/125/134aR-32/125/134a [[23/25/5223/25/52])])

R-32/125/134a [24/26/60]R-32/125/134a [24/26/60]

R-32/125/134a [25/20/55]R-32/125/134a [25/20/55]

R-32/125/134a [30/10/60]R-32/125/134a [30/10/60]

R-32/125/290/134a R-32/125/290/134a {20/55/5/20]{20/55/5/20]

Efficiency for Chillers (COP)

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A

HFC-407C

HFC-245fa

CO

P

Substitute RefrigerantsSubstitute RefrigerantsThe Refrigerants for air conditioning are:The Refrigerants for air conditioning are:

HCFC-22HCFC-22 High PressureHigh Pressure

HFC-134AHFC-134A Medium PressureMedium PressureReplacement for CFC-12Replacement for CFC-12

HCFC-123HCFC-123 Low PressureLow PressureReplacement for CFC-11Replacement for CFC-11

HFC-407cHFC-407c High PressureHigh PressureReplacement for HCFC-22Replacement for HCFC-22

HFC-410aHFC-410a High PressureHigh PressureReplacement for HCFC-22 EquipmentReplacement for HCFC-22 Equipment

Emissions

EnergyEfficiency

Focusing on Emissions and Efficiency Focusing on Emissions and Efficiency is fundamental to doing what’s right.is fundamental to doing what’s right.

The Future

Future Means Thinking Future Means Thinking GreenGreen

Designing “best value versus Designing “best value versus lowest cost” buildinglowest cost” building

The green of energy efficiencyThe green of energy efficiency The green of resource The green of resource

sustainabilitysustainability

““Green” Opportunities are Green” Opportunities are Tremendous for:Tremendous for:

ManufacturersManufacturers Consulting EngineersConsulting Engineers ContractorsContractors Facility EngineersFacility Engineers

Summary and Summary and ExpectationsExpectations

Energy Efficiency will be Strongly Energy Efficiency will be Strongly EncouragedEncouraged– Replacement of Inefficient HVAC, Replacement of Inefficient HVAC,

Lighting, and other appliancesLighting, and other appliances– Life Cycle Cost purchasing will be the Life Cycle Cost purchasing will be the

preferable process for obtaining preferable process for obtaining energy efficient systems, appliances, energy efficient systems, appliances, buildings, and automobilesbuildings, and automobiles