gonzalez, p., r.p. neilson, j.m. lenihan, and r.j. drapek · gonzalez, p. (2001) desertification...
TRANSCRIPT
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S1
Gonzalez, P., R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2010. Global patterns in the
vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. Global Ecology and
Biogeography 19: 755-768.
Supporting Information
Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts.
Methods In November 2009, we conducted a systematic search of the ISI database of
scientific publications <http://www.isiknowledge.com>, which at the time contained citations
to over 91 million references, for published references of field research that documented the
occurrence or absence of biome shifts due to climate change. We searched on the terms
“biome shift,” “vegetation shift,” “range shift,” “species shift,” “ecotone shift,” “vegetation
shift climate change,” “biome shift climate change,” “no biome shift,” “no vegetation shift,”
“no evidence biome shift,” and “no evidence vegetation shift,” producing a list of 1952
references. We added references from Parmesan and Yohe (2003), Rosenzweig et al. (2007),
and Rosenzweig et al. (2008). We identified references that fit seven criteria: (1) the research
examined terrestrial plant species, (2) the research data examined a change in biome, not just
a change in select individual species, (3) the research collected data from field observations
(not just remote sensing), (4) the data included data in the 20th century, (5) the data spanned at
least 40 years, (6) the authors attributed observed vegetation distributions to climate, not land
cover change or other factors, and (7) the research used paired analysis or repeat
measurements. We found 19 cases that fit these criteria. We excluded cases of extreme events
(e.g. Allen & Breshears, 1998), movement of species within a biome (e.g. Walther et al.,
2005a; Kelly & Goulden, 2008; Parolo & Rossi, 2008), and remote sensing studies with no
field validation (e.g. Masek, 2001; Sanz-Elorza et al., 2003). We found that 15 cases detected
a biome change and attributed it to observed changes in temperature and precipitation. Four
cases found no biome change. The table below provides details of these 19 cases.
GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S2
Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts, continued
References Allen, C.D. & Breshears, D.D. (1998) Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone:
Rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences of the USA, 95, 14 839–14 842.
Beckage, B., Osborne, B., Gavin, D.G., Pucko, C., Siccama, T. & Perkins T. (2008) A rapid
upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains
of Vermont. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 105, 4197–
4202.
Brink, V.C. (1959) A directional change in the subalpine forest-heath ecotone in Garibaldi
Park, British Columbia. Ecology, 40, 10–16.
Cullen, L.E., Stewart, G.H., Duncan, R.P. & Palmer, J.G. (2001) Disturbance and climate
warming influences on New Zealand Nothofagus tree-line population dynamics.
Journal of Ecology, 89, 1061–1071.
Danby, R.K. & Hik, D.S. (2007) Variability, contingency, and rapid change in recent
subarctic alpine tree line dynamics. Journal of Ecology, 95, 352–363.
Devi, N., Hagedorn, F., Moiseev, P., Bugmann, H., Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V. & Rigling, A.
(2008) Expanding forests and changing growth forms of Siberian larch at the Polar
Urals treeline during the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 14, 1581–1591.
Gonzalez, P. (2001) Desertification and a shift of forest species in the West African Sahel.
Climate Research, 17, 217–228.
Kelly, A.E. & Goulden, M.L. (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate
change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 105, 11 823–11
826.
Kullman, L. & Öberg, L. (2009) Post-Little Ice Age tree line rise and climate warming in the
Swedish Scandes: A landscape ecological perspective. Journal of Ecology, 97, 415–
429.
Lloyd, A.H. & Fastie, C.L. (2003) Recent changes in tree line forest distribution and structure
in interior Alaska. Ecoscience, 10, 176–185.
Luckman, B. & Kavanagh, T. (2000) Impact of climate fluctuations on mountain
environments in the Canadian Rockies. Ambio, 29, 371–380.
Masek, J.G. (2001) Stability of boreal forest stands during recent climate change: Evidence
GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S3
from Landsat satellite imagery. Journal of Biogeography, 28, 967–976.
Mitchell, T.D. & Jones, P.D. (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of
monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International
Journal of Climatology, 25, 693–712.
Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts
across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37–42.
Parolo, G. & Rossi, G. (2008) Upward migration of vascular plants following a climate
warming trend in the Alps. Basic and Applied Ecology, 9, 100–107.
Payette, S. (2007) Contrasted dynamics of northern Labrador tree lines caused by climate
change and migrational lag. Ecology, 88, 770–780.
Payette, S. & Filion, L. (1985) White spruce expansion at the tree line and recent climatic
change. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 15, 241–251.
Peñuelas, J. & Boada, M. (2003) A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny
mountains (NE Spain). Global Change Biology, 9, 131–140.
Rosenzweig, C., Casassa, G., Karoly, D.J., Imeson, A., Liu, C., Menzel, A., Rawlins, S., Root
T.L., Seguin, B. & Tryjanowski, P. (2007) Assessment of observed changes and
responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), pp. 79–
131. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Rosenzweig, C., Karoly, D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Wu, Q., Casassa, G., Menzel, A.,
Root, T.L., Estrella, N., Seguin, B., Tryjanowski, P., Liu, C., Rawlins, S. & Imeson,
A. (2008). Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate
change. Nature, 453, 353–357.
Sanz-Elorza, M., Dana, E.D., Gonzalez, A. & Sobrino, E. (2003) Changes in the high-
mountain vegetation of the central Iberian peninsula as a probable sign of global
warming. Annals of Botany, 92, 273–280.
Sharp, B.R. & Bowman, D.M.J.S. (2004) Patterns of long-term woody vegetation change in a
sandstone-plateau savanna woodland, Northern Territory, Australia. Journal of
Tropical Ecology, 20, 259–270.
Suarez, F., Binkley, D., Kaye, M.W. & Stottlemyer, R. (1999) Expansion of forest stands into
tundra in the Noatak National Preserve, northwest Alaska. Ecoscience, 6, 465–470.
Szeicz, J.M. & MacDonald, G.M. (1995) Recent white spruce dynamics at the subarctic
alpine treeline of north-western Canada. Journal of Ecology, 83, 873–885.
GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S4
Walther, G.R., Beissner, S. & Burga, C.A. (2005a) Trends in the upward shift of alpine
plants. Journal of Vegetation Science, 16, 541–548.
Walther, G.R., Berger, S. & Sykes, M.T. (2005b) An ecological ‘footprint’ of climate change.
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, 272, 1427–1432.
Wardle, P. & Coleman, M.C. (1992) Evidence for rising upper limits of four native New
Zealand forest trees. New Zealand Journal of Botany, 30, 303–314.
GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S5
Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts. References: 1 (Beckage et al., 2008), 2 (Brink, 1959), 3 (Cullen et al., 2001), 4 (Danby & Hik, 2007), 5 (Devi et al.,
2008), 6 (Gonzalez, 2001), 7 (Kullman & Öberg, 2009), 8 (Lloyd & Fastie, 2003), 9 (Luckman & Kavanagh, 2000), 10 (Millar et al., 2004), 11 (Payette,
2007), 12 (Payette & Filion, 1985), 13 (Peñuelas & Boada, 2003), 14 (Sharp & Bowman, 2004), 15 (Suarez et al., 1999), 16 (Szeicz & MacDonald, 1995),
17 (Walther et al., 2005b), 18 (Wardle & Coleman, 1992). Shift type: elevational (E), latitudinal (L), none detected (N). Biomes (and abbreviations), from
poles to equator: tundra and alpine (UA), boreal conifer forest (BC), temperate conifer forest (TC), temperate broadleaf forest (TB), temperate shrubland
(TS), tropical grassland (RG), tropical woodland (RW). Rate of change in temperature and fractional rate of change in precipitation are derived from linear
least squares regression of 1901-2002 data (Mitchell & Jones, 2005; main text, Methods section). Climate trends indicate general regional changes at
50 km spatial resolution because the references do not give uniform site-specific climate data to compare across locations; * indicates that rate is significant
at P ≤ 0.05. The table continues on the next page.
Location Refer-ence
Lati-tude
Longi-tude Plots
Time Period
Shift type
Retracting biome
Expanding biome
Temperature change
(ºC century-1)
Precipitation change
(century-1) Alaska Range, Alaska, USA 8 63.5 -149.5 18 1800-2000 L UA BC 1.1* 0.03 Baltic Coast, Sweden 17 55.5 14.0 7 1944-2003 L TC TB 0.6* 0.08 Garibaldi, British Columbia, Canada 2 49.9 -123.1 1 1860-1959 E UA BC 0.7* 0.16*
Goulet Sector, Québec, Canada 12 58.4 -76.6 2 1880-1980 E UA BC 1.4* 0.19* Green Mountains, Vermont, USA 1 44.2 -72.8 33 1962-2005 E BC TB 1.6* 0.06 Jasper, Alberta, Canada 9 52.4 -117.9 1 1700-1994 E UA BC 0.6 0.21* Kluane Range, Yukon, Canada 4 61.4 -139.4 2 1800-2000 E UA BC 0.7 0.05 Low Peninsula, Québec, Canada 12 58.4 -76.58 1 1750-1980 N - - 1.4* 0.19* Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, Canada 16 64.7 -129.1 13 1700-1990 N - - 1.4* 0.03
Montseny Mountains, Catalonia, Spain 13 41.8 2.4 50 1945-2001 E UA TB 1.2* -0.03
GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S6
Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts, continued.
Location Refer-ence
Lati-tude
Longi-tude Plots
Time Period
Shift type
Retracting biome
Expanding biome
Temperature change
(ºC century-1)
Precipitation change
(century-1) Napaktok Bay, Labrador, Canada 11 57.9 -62.6 2 1750-2000 L UA BC 1.1* 0.05 Noatak, Alaska, USA 15 67.5 -162.2 18 1700-1990 L UA BC 0.6 0.19* Rahu Saddle, New Zealand 3 -42.3 172.1 7 1700-2000 N - - 0.6* 0.03 Rai-Iz, Urals, Russia 5 66.8 65.6 144 1700-2002 E UA BC 0.3 0.35* Sahel, Sudan, Guinean zones, Senegal 6 15.5 -16.3 135 1945-1993 L RW RG 0.4* -0.48*
Scandes, Sweden 7 62.3 12.3 123 1915-2007 E UA BC 0.8* 0.25* Sierra Nevada, California, USA 10 37.8 -119.2 10 1880-2002 E UA TC -0.1 0.21* South Island, New Zealand 18 -43.2 171 22 1980-1990 E TS TB 0.6* 0.03 Yambarran, Northern Territory, Australia 14 -15.7 130.5 33 1948-2000 N - - -0.06 0.35*
GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S8
Appendix S3 Global areas of projected biome change (% of biome area) between the periods 1961–
1990 and 2071–2100, modeled by MC1. The table shows results of unanimous agreement of nine
general circulation model-emissions scenario combinations. Bold type indicates areas of no projected
biome change. Biomes, from poles to equator: ice (IC), tundra and alpine (UA), boreal conifer forest
(BC), temperate conifer forest (TC), temperate broadleaf forest (TB), temperate mixed forest (TM),
temperate shrubland (TS), temperate grassland (TG), desert (DE), tropical grassland (RG), tropical
woodland (RW), tropical deciduous broadleaf forest (RD), tropical evergreen broadleaf forest (RE).
As an example to read the table, nine combinations project that 77% of tropical woodland in 1990 will
remain tropical woodland in 2100, but that <1% of the biome may change to tropical grassland. MC1
models tropical woodland on 5% of global land in 1990, decreasing to 4% in 2100.
2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 1990
IC UA BC TC TB TM TS TG DE RG RW RD RE Total
1990 IC 91 9 1
1990 UA 83 15 <1 <1 <1 2 <1 1 9
1990 BC <1 93 2 1 2 2 <1 15
1990 TC <1 90 9 1 4
1990 TB <1 92 8 <1 5
1990 TM <1 16 74 1 3 5 4
1990 TS <1 1 94 2 3 1 7
1990 TG 3 1 2 87 7 3
1990 DE <1 99 1 12
1990 RG <1 1 94 3 1 <1 11
1990 RW <1 77 22 1 5
1990 RD <1 98 2 9
1990 RE 1 99 15
2100 Total 1 8 15 4 5 4 7 4 12 11 4 10 16 100