government financing programs & commitments to cpa implementation
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Second Sudan Consortium. 19 – 20 March - Khartoum. Government Financing Programs & Commitments to CPA Implementation. The Report:. Presentation:. Omer Mohamed Abel Salam. Government of National Unity (GNU) Financing of JAM Projects 2005-2006. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Government Financing Government Financing Programs & Commitments to Programs & Commitments to
CPA ImplementationCPA Implementation
Second Sudan ConsortiumSecond Sudan Consortium
Omer Mohamed Abel SalamOmer Mohamed Abel Salam
19 – 20 March - Khartoum19 – 20 March - Khartoum
The Report:The Report:
Presentation: Presentation:
Government of National Unity (GNU) Financing of JAM Projects 2005-2006
GNU Obligation contained in JAM document amounted to 1.64 billion us dollars for retrospect 2005 and 2006.
GNU Financing:
(1) Actual government expenditure on JAM Projects recorded 1.1 billion dollars or 71% of commitments during the period 2005 - 2006 (table No.(1) shows the details)
GNU Financing Cont.
(2) GNU expenditure on JAM -Related Issues amounted to 0.17 billion dollars. (table No.(2) depicts the details).
(3) Total GNU expenditure amounted to 1.3 billion dollars or 82% of total JAM estimates during 2005 - 2006.
Table (1)GNU Expending on JAM projects
JAM Estimates Actual JAM Estimates Actual JAM Estimates Actual
1.Capacity building and Institional development8.0 2.1 21.0 15.3 29.0 17.4 60%2.Governance and rule of law 15.0 0.0 39.0 4.0 54.0 4.0 7%3.Economic policy 23.0 0.2 62.2 65.1 85.2 65.3 77%4.Productive sectors 74.0 75.5 153.0 101.1 227.0 176.6 78%5.Basic social services 167.0 73.3 445.0 150.2 612.0 223.5 37%6.Infrastructure 16.0 152.6 43.0 317.5 59.0 470.0 797%7.Livelihood and social protection 19.0 17.9 51.0 22.3 70.0 40.2 57%8.Information and statistics 5.0 2.6 22.0 9.8 27.0 12.4 46%Sub total 327.0 324.2 836.2 685.3 1163.2 1009.5 87%Three Areas: 101.0 32.0 270.0 53.0 371.0 85.0 23%Total 428.0 356.2 1106.2 738.3 1534.2 1094.5 71%
Performance Projects2005 2006 Total for 2005/2006
million US Dollars
GNU Spending On JAM Projects(Million US$) 2005
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
CB GR EP PS BSS Infra LSP INFO&STAT Three Areas
2005 JAM Estimates 2005 Actual
Key: 5. BSS: Basic social services
1. CB: Capacity building and Institional development 6. INFRA: Infrastructure
2. GR: Governance and rule of law 7. LPS: Livelihood and social protection
3. EP: Economic policy8. IINOF & STAT: Information and
statistics
4. PS: Productive sectors
GNU Spending On JAM Projects (Million US$) 2006
-50
100150200250300350400450500
CB GR EP PS BSS INFRA LSP INFO&STAT Three Areas
2006 JAM Estimates 2006 Actual
Key: 5. BSS: Basic social services
1. CB: Capacity building and Institional development 6. INFRA: Infrastructure
2. GR: Governance and rule of law 7. LPS: Livelihood and social protection
3. EP: Economic policy8. IINOF& STAT: Information and
statistics
4. PS: Productive sectors
Performance of GNU Spending On JAM Projects2005&2006
0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%
Performance
Table (2)GNU Expenditure on JAM/CPA Obligations
JAM/CPA Obligations2005 2006
Total for 2005/2006
JAMEstimates
ActualJAM
EstimatesActual
JAMEstimates
Actual
National fund for reh.of war affected areas 0 1.7 0 0 0 1.7
Joint forces 0 4 0 73 0 77
Commissions/councils/committees 0 0 0 4 0 4
Entitlements for Consitustionees 0 0 0 4.9 0 4.9
Agric Season support 0 0 0 78.5 0 78.5
Total 0 5.7 0 160.4 0 166.1
Towards Fiscal Decentralization and Equitable Resource Mobilization 2005-2006
Development Expenditure as % of GDP 5% 6.9%
Poverty Reduction Expenditure as % of GDP 3.5% 5.0%
Social Expenditure as % of GDP 2.50% 3.0%
Intergovnmental Transfers of Total National Revenue:
GNU 65% 56%
Goss 12.5% 16%
Northern States 22.5% 28%
Maintaining Stable macro – Economic Environment
GDP growth rate 8.1% 10.3%Inflation rate 8.5% 7.2%Current account as percentage of GDP -10.0% -10.9%Petroleum exports as percentage of GDP 15.0% 16.0%Non-petroleum exports as percentage of GDP 2.0% 2.0%FDI as percentage of GDP 9.0% 10.0%Revenues as percentage of GDP 22.0% 20.0%Expenditure as percentage of GDP 20.7% 25.2%Debt as percentage of GDP 113.0% 80.0%Debt as percentage of exports 707.0% 556.0%Debt as percentage of revenues 510.0% 497.0%Money supply growth rate 44.6% 27.40%
Item 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Agricultural Sector
CONGrowth
Rate CONGrowth
Rate CONGrowth
Rate CONGrowth
Rate CONGrowth
Rate CONGrowth
Rate CONGrowth
Rate
46.3 0.7 45.6 4.7 46 7.4 45.6 5.2 40.0 3.6 39.6 7.2 38.9 8.3
Industrial Sector21.5 47.1* 22.8 13.1 23.2 8 24.1 10.5 28.5 12.9 28.3 7.6 28.9 12.5
Service Sector 32.2 1.6 31.6 4.2 30.8 4.2 30.3 3.8 31.5 6.6 32.1 9.8 32.2 10.8
Overall GDP Growth Rate 3.8 6.4 6.5 6 7.2 8.1 10.3
Sectoral GDP & Annual Growth Rate
* The high jump in industrial sector growth rate is attributed to petroleum production
Real GDP Growth Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006YEARS
RA
TE
S
AgriculturalSectorIndustrial SectorService Sector
Overall GDPGrowth Rate
Sectoral GDP 2000 -2006
Agricultural Sector
44%
Service Sector31%
Industrial Sector25%
Resource Gap & Economic Stability 2000-2006
Item/Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Inflation rate 8.5% 4.9% 8.3% 7.7% 8.5% 8.5% 7.2%
Current AccountBalance% of GDP -5.9% -11.4% -11.6% -8.7% -4.0% -10.0% -10.9%
Money Supply Growth rate (Broad Money Growth ) 33.0% 25.9% 30.4% 30.3% 30.8% 43.5% 27.4%
% Budget Deficit 0. 7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 1.5% 2.6% 3.3%
Source: Bank of Sudan
Resource Gap & Economic Stability 2000-2006
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Years
Rat
es
Inf lation rate
Current account balance/GDP
Money Supply Grow th rate(M2)
Budget deficit/GDP
A quick move to resolve foreign debt of more than 27 billion to allow Sudan benefit from global initiatives and have access to concessional development finance.
Monitoring ceiling of non-concessional lending and confining it to CPA, DPA and EPA related obligations.
Finalizing Debt Strategy and improving debt management.
Debt Sustainability
IndicatorsStandard
Thresholds
2003
2004
2005
2006
NPV of debt/ Export. 150 1186
914 707 556
NPV of debt/ Revnue. 250 950 670 510 497
Revenues/GDP 15 14 21 22 20
Export/GDP 30 16 20 21 17.3
Debt Sustainability Indicators 2003-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2003 2004 2005 2006
NPV of Debt/EXP
NPV of Debt/REV
Debt Sustainability Indicators 2003-2006NPV of Debt/Export- NPV of Debt/Revenue
NPV= NET PRESENT VALUE
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006
REV/GDP
EXP/GDP
Debt sustainability Indicators 2003-2006Exp/GDP- Rev/GDP
NPV= NET PRESENT VALUE
Proposed Joint Actions To Scale up JAM Implementation and produce tangible Results
Managing time bound tangible and fast track development results.Investing on information systems and vital statistics.
Easing IDA/WB procedure of approvals along the process of project cycle and coordinate with UN agencies,NGOs ..ect.
Designing of intensive capacity building programmes aimed at enhancing absorptive capacities of both institutions and human at central government ,Goss and states.
Focusing on fast track and concrete development results.
Respecting government institution mandates and governance structure and national capacities to reduce cost of operations and associated costs while improving fiduciary ,accountability and transparency.
Pursuing Rome /Paris declarations ,OECD-DAC and other relevant international fora reference to ownership , alignment and harmonization.
Reducing donors missions ,streamlining of conditionalities and simplifying and harmonizing of evaluation/reviews and other requirements (World Bank and UN affiliates).
Delegating more financial powers to Sudan-based or regional-based managers, missions and officers.
Providing donor support in areas of planning , monitoring and evaluation ,analytical and implementation capacity building aimed at greater leadership role and ownership of development results.
Ensuring flexibility in donor financing of some important domestic cost to facilitate easy and timely implementation of JAM projects.
Carrying out media campaign coverage and publicity on CPA/JAM involving all relevant government and non- government actors.
Macroeconomic Framework 2007-2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real GDP Growth Rate 10% 7.6% 7.0% 7.2% 7.1%
Current Account -9% -5.2 -4.5% -3.9% -3.6%
Export as % of GDP 13% 15.1% 14.3% 13.9% 13.5%
Import as % of GDP -17% -15.9%
-14.8%
-14.1%
-13.5%
Inflation 8% 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Money Supply 34% 35% 33% 30% 30%
Total Expenditure as % of GDP 25.3% 23.8% 21.9% 21% 19.6%
Public Revenue as % of GDP 20.1% 18.1% 16.7% 16% 15%
Budget Deficit as % of GDP 5.1% 5.7% 5.3% 5.0% 4.5%
GNU Financing of JAM During The Period 2007-2011
Cluster
Cost Estimate
for 2007
in million dollars)
Cost Estimate for Phase 11
(2008-2011
in million dollars)
1.Capacity building and
Institutional development
27 101
2.Governance and rule of law 43 142
3.Economic policy 43 37
4.Productive sectors 158 135
5.Basic social services 528 2807
6.Infrastructure 259 405
7.Livelihood and social protection
107 208
8.Information and statistics 22 17
Sub-total 1189 3852
Three areas 364 1229
Grand total 1553 5081
The 2007 Budget
Budget References
The provisions of National Interim Constitution.
The comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) JAM Matrix.
The mid-term budget Framework (2007-2009).
Interim Poverty Reduction Paper and MDGs.
Main Objectives and Policies of 2007 Budget
• Maintaining sound economic management and prudent macro economic policies targeting inflation rate of one digit, low budget deficit of 5% (non cash basis), improved BOP and high economic growth rate.
• Economic Growth 10%.
• Pursuing progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals.
• Attaining poverty reduction and more equitable resource allocation and transfers to states.
• Abrogation of withholding public revenues and remitting all proceeds to National accounts.
Cont. Main Objectives of 2007 Budget
• Redressing the roles &functions of specialized banks ABS, Farmer bank, Animal Resource Bank to provide financing for traditional agriculture and rural activities..
• Encouraging bank liquidity flows to rural activities and operationlization microfinance enterprise projects.
• Avail employment opportunities to higher education graduate in public administration (mainly education, health, agriculture and veterinary sectors).
• Supporting thousands of higher education students through student support fund.
Cont. Main Objectives of 2007 Budget
• Finalizing PRSP by end of 2007.
• Mobilizing more resources and directing policy instruments and incentives to traditional agriculture.
• Ensuring equitable intergovernmental fiscal transfers.
• Achieving Pro-poor expenditure of more than 5% of GDP.
• Allocating more resources to basic social services delivery.
• Restoring peace and National Unity.
• Meeting substantial financial obligation arising out of the implementation of the CPA , DPA and EPA.
• Addressing infrastructural bottlenecks and basic social services.
• Addressing unemployment problems.
• Building strategic food reserve.
• Honoring critical external debt service.
• Addressing security problems and the rule of law.
• Safeguarding FDI & foreign exchange flows.
• Addressing external debt overhang.
• Boosting non – oil exports.
• Increasing Fiscal efforts through:
• Rationalizing exemptions and current expenditure.
• Removal of oil subsidies.
• Enhancing tax coverage and tax collection.
• Ensuring fiscal stability, transparency and accountability.