THE HALIFAX INDEX

AN ECONOMIC GUT CHECK AND IMPETUS FOR ACTION

MAY 24TH, 2012

FRED MORLEY CHIEF ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE VP,

GREATER HALIFAX PARTNERSHIP

S UC C E S S : WE ’L L K NOW IT WHE N WE G E T IT

T HE HA L IFA X S C OR E C A R D

T HE HA L IFA X INDE X

• A gut check on our performance • Share timely and relevant information in narrative

form • Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to

our Economic Strategy • Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right

questions

? ? ? ?

T HE HA L IFA X INDE X A P P R OA C H

• Broadening the definition of economic progress • Working with research capable organizations to find

the most accurate measures of success • Benchmarking our progress against others • Don’t point fingers, build partnerships

INDE X OUT C OME S

• A strategy progress report • An economic gut check for Halifax • Business Climate Review • Quality of Place Report • Action inventory of Challenges and Opportunities • Insight for action & alignment • Special reports

– Immigration – Business Confidence – Regional Centre Demographics

T HE HA L IFA X INDE X WOR DL E

Economic Progress

Quality of Life

Economic Growth

Sustainability

People

People

Population

Education Labour Force

Workforce Quality

P OP UL AT ION G R OWT H

Census Metropolitan Area

2006 Population 2011 Population

Actual Growth

% Growth

St. John’s 181,113 196,966 15,853 8.8%

Regina 194,971 210,566 15,595 8.0%

Quebec 719,153 765,706 46,553 6.5%

Halifax 372,858 390,328 17,470 4.7%

Victoria 330,088 344,615 14,527 4.4%

London 457,720 474,786 17,066 3.7%

A WE A K E NING MIG R AT ION OUT L OOK

1,896

-852

1,231

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

International Interprovincial Intraprovincial

Annual migration estimates, Halifax Source: Statistics Canada

2006-07 2010-11

S MA L L E R C IT IE S OF F E R ING C OMP E T IT ION

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

International Immigrants to Atlantic Canadian Cities Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

INT ’L S T UDE NT S A S A N OP P OR T UNIT Y

2,770

1,291

13,546

6,504

296 373 823 856

Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick

International Students Present and Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident, 2005-09

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

International Students Present Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident

Economy Gross

Domestic Product

Sectors

Consumer Behaviour

Construction Commercial

Space

Gateway Movement

Business Confidence

E C ONOMIC S IZE

G DP P E R P E R S ON

A S TA R T-UP B OOM

% Change in the # of Business Establishments (2003–2010)*

*CSDs only (i.e. the City of Moncton – not the Moncton region. Source: Canadian Business Patterns (2011). Statistics Canada

0.0%1.6%

-15.7%-1.9%

10.0%-1.2%

3.7%-7.6%

15.6%13.3%

8.7%-6.0%-5.9%

1.8%-1.0%

-12.3%-1.3%

-8.5%

Newfoundland and LabradorSt. John's

Corner BrookPrince Edward Island

CharlottetownSummersideNova Scotia

DigbyLunenburg

HalifaxTruro

Cape BretonNew Brunswick

Saint JohnMoncton

MiramichiFredericton

Edmundston

C ONS UME R S

OF F IC E C ONS T R UC T ION

G AT E WAY R E C OV E R ING R A P IDLY

3,469,062

3,594,164

29,753 29,263

2007 2011

Activity at Halifax International Airport Source: Halifax International Airport Authority

Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Air Cargo (Tonnes)

1.38 1.33

0.77 0.84

Cruise Passengers Cruise Ships Port Cargo TEUs

Growth of Port of Halifax indicators, indexed to 2007 Source: Port of Halifax

2007 2011

B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E HOL DING S T E A DY

25.6 26.1 29.9 20.2

38.5

20.2

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall Halifax Dartmouth Other HRM New Business (<10 years)

Established Business (10+ years)

Halifax Business Confidence Index Source: GHP Business Confidence Survey

Aug-11 Apr-12

FA C TOR S IN B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E

Quality of Place Safety

Affordability

Health

Community

Arts, Culture, and Recreation

A S A F E R C IT Y, P E OP L E F E E L ING S A F E R

82.7 96.8 101.9

56.1

82.4

131.4

83.7

Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City

London Regina Victoria

Total crime index, Canada and benchmark cities

Source: Statistics Canada

2006 2010

86% 86% 89% 87% 90% 87%

...In your neighborhood ...Where you work and shop Satisfaction with peace and order

Share of Halifax residents who feel safe... Source: Halifax Regional Police Survey

2007 2011

HA L IFA X INT E R NAT IONA L LY C OMP E T IT IV E

99.33 102.31 110.14

83.02

109.42 104.44

110.84

101.78 104.44 107.87 110.05

96.58 96.68

Boston (MA)

Seattle (WA)

Victoria Raleigh (NC)

Toronto Montreal Vancouver Saskatoon Quebec Regina Halifax (NS) London (ON)

St. John's

Cost-of-living and quality-of-living indices Source: fDi intelligence

Cost Quality

HOUS ING C OS T S

HA L IFA X A S A N A C T IV E C IT Y

52.1%

57.7%

44.5%

50.2%

56.6% 53.9%

64.0%

Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria

Activity levels during leisure time, active or moderately active Source: Statistics Canada

2005 2010

A G R OWING A R T S A ND C ULT UR E S E C TOR

7.6

3.4

13.8

8.0

3.7

11.7

Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria

Employment in arts, culture and recreation, 000s Source: Statistics Canada

2006 2011

B US INE S S E NG A G E ME NT

B UT A R E WE HA P P Y ?

Sustainability

Density

Transportation Environment

Municipal Fiscal

Sustainability

S P E C IA L TOP IC : DE MOG R A P HIC S OF T HE R E G IONA L C E NT R E

DE NS IT Y IS C R IT IC A L TO S US TA INA B IL IT Y

Source: Canadian Urban Institute

A NE E D F OR R E NE WE D F OC US ON T HE R E G IONA L C E NT R E

MOV ING P E OP L E

G OOD E NV IR ONME NTA L P E R F OR MA NC E

B

D

B+ A-

B- C+

B+ B B

A

B- C

Nova Scotia Newfoundland Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan British Columbia

Water Quality by Province Source: Waterproof - Canada's Drinking Water Report Card

2006 2011

7.18

30.27

15.52

20.44

34.37

13.12

1.36

8.77

1.05 3.13

0.00 2.27

Halifax (4) St. John's (1) Quebec City (6) London (3) Regina (1) Victoria (7)

Air quality measures, 2011 (# of test sites in parentheses) Source: Environment Canada

Ozone (parts per billion) Fine Particulate Matter (µg/m3)

F IS C A L S TA B IL IT Y

So what have we learned?

WE DON’T K NOW A L L T HE A NS WE R S

• But we know the questions to ask

Population Growth? Business

Climate?

Healthy Heart?

Major Projects?

Sustain Halifax? Quality of

Life?

HOW DO WE DO A L L T HIS ?

HA L IFA X NE E DS A C ULT UR E OF PA R T NE R S HIP & INNOVAT ION.

Questions