hamilton air quality and health impacts study - 2011
DESCRIPTION
Hamilton Air Quality and Health Impacts Study - 2011. Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference Presented by: Dr. Douglas Chambers February 27, 2012. 1. Background. Project a result of interest by Clean Air Hamilton (CAH) to update Health Impacts Assessment - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Hamilton Air Qualityand Health Impacts Study - 2011
Presented to: Upwind Downwind Conference
Presented by:
Dr. Douglas Chambers
February 27, 2012
1
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Background
Project a result of interest by Clean Air Hamilton (CAH) to update Health Impacts Assessment Significant work undertaken by CAH and partners
to lower air concentrations in Hamilton for many pollutants
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Some Initiativesto Improve Air Quality
Public Health initiatives (AQHI) Sustainable transportation initiatives (anti-
idling, mobile monitoring) Improved air monitoring (Hamilton Air
Monitoring Network On-line) Air Quality communication (CAH website) Emission reductions (wood burning efficiency
initiative)
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City of Hamilton Boundaries
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Air Pollutants Considered
Fine Particulate Matter PM10 and PM2.5
Nitrogen Dioxide Surrogate for NOx as NO converted rapidly to NO2
Sulphur Dioxide Ozone Carbon Monoxide
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Air Quality - PM2.5
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Air Quality – PM10
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Air Quality – NO2
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Air Quality – SO2
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Air Quality – O3
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Air Quality – CO
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Previous Study - 2003
Used Dr. Pengelly’s Hamilton Air Quality Initiative 1997 report as a basis
Used same methodology to allow for comparison
Updated the relative risk outcomes for PM10, NO2, SO2, CO and O3
Adjusted health outcomes by 42% due to errors in the derivation of the relative risks from the literature
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Current Study
Used same methodology as 2003 study Updated air quality data
Obtained from the MOE Updated mortality and morbidity health data
Obtained from Hamilton Public Health Services
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Current Study …cont’d
Updated relative risks where new studies were available All relative risks for mortality updated Only some for morbidity
– Adopted relative risks from 2003 study
Included health outcomes for PM2.5
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Assumptions Used in Current Study
Focus on relative risks of acute exposures Similar to previous study
Used average relative risks values Separate relative risks for each air pollutant
– May result in double-counting Considered representative air concentrations
No consideration of proximity to industry or major roadways
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Health Data
Obtained Health Data from City of Hamilton Public Health Services
Mortality Data Only available up to 2005
Morbidity Data Cardiovascular hospital admissions up to 2008 Respiratory hospital admissions up to 2008
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Mortality and Morbidity Rates for Hamilton
* Approximated by Total Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Circulatory System** Approximated by Acute Care Hospital Discharges for Disease of the Respiratory System
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Relative Risks Used in the Study
Air Pollutant
NT Mortality(changes per 10 pollution
units)
Respiratory Hospital Admissions
(changes per 10 pollution units)
Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions (changes per 10 pollution
units)
PM2.5 (µg/m3) 0.77 - 0.8
PM10 (µg/m3) 0.45 2.1* 0.7
SO2 (ppb) 0.36 3.0 1.1*
NO2 (ppb) 0.68 4.9* 0.94
CO (ppm) 1.7 - 1.95*
O3 (ppb) 0.72 2.8* 0.2
Note:“-” no data available in the literature to determine a relative risk* relative risks obtained from Sahsuvaroglu and Jerrett (2003) as no new data available
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Model Equation
Risk (due AQ) = ER[excess relative risk due to AQ] x [baseline rates]
= [ERR (per unit Concentration)] x [Air concentration] x [ baseline rates]
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NT Acute Exposure Mortality
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Respiratory HospitalAdmissions
Note: PM10, NO2 and O3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study
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Cardiovascular HospitalAdmissions
Note: PM10, NO2 and O3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 StudyNote: SO2 and CO Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Adjusted by 42% as Using RR Values from 2003 Study
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Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for PM2.5
Results Summaryfor Particulate Matter
17%
37%
46%
PM10 Summary of All Outcomes
NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions
36%
64%
PM2.5 Summary of All Outcomes
NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions
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Results Summaryfor NO2 and SO2
15%
49%
36%
NO2 Summary for All Outcomes
NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions
9%
62%
29%
SO2 Summary for All Outcomes
NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions
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Results Summaryfor O3 and CO
Note: No relative risks from literature for respiratory admissions for CO
29%
56%
15%
O3 Summary for All Outcomes
NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions
49%51%
CO Summary for All Outcomes
NT Acute Exposure Mor-talityRespiratory Hospital AdmissionsCardiovascular Hospital Admissions
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Summary of Resultsfor Current Study
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NT AcuteExposure Mortality
Respiratory Admissions
CV Admissions
(changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant)
range of RR estimates range of RR estimates range of RR estimates1997
Study 2003 Study
CurrentStudy
1997 Study
2003 Study
CurrentStudy
1997 Study
2003 Study
CurrentStudy
PM10 (μg/m3) 1 0.76 0.45 0.7 2.1 2.1 0.6 1.4 0.7PM2.5 (μg/m3) - 2.88 0.77 - - - - - 0.8SO2 (ppb) 0.6 2 0.36 0.4 3.7 3 - 1.1 1.1NO2 (ppb) 1.15 1.9 0.68 0.4 4.9 4.9 - 6.55 0.94
CO (ppm) 1.1 3.68 1.7 - - - 5 1.95 1.95O3 (ppb) 0.3 1.38 0.72 0.8 2.8 2.8 - 4.5 0.2
Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current and Previous Studies
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PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NO2 CO O3 Total0
50
100
150
200
250
NT Acute Exposure Mortality
1997 Study
2003 Study
Current Study
Aver
age
Incid
ence
s per
Yea
r
28
Comparison of Mortality Outcomes
Note:1. All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by
42% to account for overestimation of RR values
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Comparison of Respiratory Outcomes
PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NO2 CO O3 Total0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Respiratory Hospital Admissions
1997 Study
2003 Study
Current Study
Aver
age
Incid
ence
s per
Yea
r
Note:1. All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted by
42% to account for overestimation of RR values
2. PM10, NO2 and O3 current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available
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Comparison of Cardiovascular Outcomes
PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NO2 CO O3 Total0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions
1997 Study
2003 Study
Current Study
Aver
age
Incid
ence
s per
Yea
r
Note:1. All 1997 and 2003 study data adjusted
by 42% to account for overestimation of RR values
2. SO2 and CO current study values adjusted by 42% as no updated RR values were available
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Alternative Models - ICAP
Details: Developed by DSS Management Consultants for the
Canadian Medical Association PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, O3
Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations
Input: risk rates, air quality or trends, baseline/background air quality
Output: annual events and economic damages attributable to increase in specific parameter level from baseline/background
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Alternative Models – ICAP… cont’d
Limitations for this application: 2006 starting year complicates comparison with current
model Cannot easily calculate incremental benefit or savings
(damages only) For this study can only demonstrate incremental health effects
and economic impact with ozone as benefits associated with other pollutants
Cannot evaluate all pollutants in one run Output format inconvenient to work with Evaluates total mortality only (not chronic and acute
separately)
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Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Studyand ICAP
NT AcuteExposure Mortality
Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions
(changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant)
range of RR estimates range of RR estimates range of RR estimates
ICAP* Current ICAP Current ICAP Current
PM10 (μg/m3) - 0.45 - 2.1 - 0.7
PM2.5 (μ/m3) 1.0 0.77 1.2 - 0.9 0.8
SO2 (ppb) 0.4 0.36 7.5 3 1.9 1.1
NO2 (ppb) 0.8 0.68 7.4 4.9 7.6 0.94
CO (1 ppm) - 1.7 - - - 1.95
O3 (ppb) 0.5 0.72 1.2 2.8 1.9 0.2
* ICAP NT Mortality is Total While Current is Acute Only
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Results from ICAP Model- Ozone
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Alternative Model - AQBAT
Details: Developed by Dave Stieb and Stan Judek, Health Canada PM10, PM2.5 (limited), SO2, NO2, CO, O3
Historical census division specific air quality data from NAPS stations
Input: risk rates and air quality or trends Output: annual events and damages attributable to increase
in specific parameter level from baseline
Limitations for this application: Cannot Input Air Quality Prior to 2003 for Comparison to
Baseline Difficult to Compare to Total Events per Year
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Comparison of Relative Risks Between Current Study and AQBAT
NT Acute Exposure Mortality
Respiratory Admissions CV Admissions
(changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant) (changes per 10 units pollutant)
range of RR estimates range of RR estimates range of RR estimates
AQBAT Current AQBAT Current AQBAT Current
PM10 (μg/m3) - 0.45 - 2.1 - 0.7
PM2.5 (μ/m3) - 0.77 0.75 - 0.71 0.8
SO2 (ppb) 0.46 0.36 - 3 - 1.1
NO2 (ppb) 0.75 0.68 - 4.9 - 0.94
CO (1 ppm) 1.9 1.7 - - - 1.95
O3 (ppb) 0.84 0.72 - 2.8 - 0.2
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Results from AQBAT (1)
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Change in NT Acute Exposure Mortality Events Attributable to Change in Air Quality
PM10
PM2.5
SO2
NO2
CO
O3Chan
ge in
Mor
talit
y Ev
ents
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Results from AQBAT (2)
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Change in Respiratory Hospital Admissions Attributable to Change in Air Quality
PM10SO2NO2O3
Chan
ge in
Res
pira
tory
Ad-
mis
sion
s
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Change in Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions At-tributable to Change in Air Quality
PM10PM2.5SO2NO2COO3
Chan
ge in
Car
diov
ascu
lar
Ad-
mis
sion
s
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Economic Valuation - AQBAT
Sa
vin
gs
C
os
tM
illi
on
s o
f D
oll
ars
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Summary
Updated Health Study showed improvements to health outcomes Due to decreases in air concentrations
– Ozone the exception Due to decreases in relative risks from literature studies
Limited utility of other available models for this application Direct comparisons difficult to make between models
Cost heavily dependent on model Can vary widely (in this example at least 5-fold)
Should update the health study in another 5 years