hazard and risk mitigation monitoring · pdf file2 volcanic and seismic hazards mapping and...

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Technical Workshop on Support to Local Government to Improve Environmental Management in Southeast Asia

CBS Hotel Angelo King International Center, Manila22 August 2011

PERLA J. DELOS REYESOfficer-In-Charge & Supervising Science Research Specialist

Geology & Geophysics Research and Development Division (GGRDD)Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)

Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

126/8/2011

The geographic and geologic setting of the Philippines make it prone to various hazards, including:

Guinsaugon, St. Bernard

1990 Luzon Earthquake

• typhoon/rain-related

• volcano-related

Mayon Volcano, 1993

1994 Mindoro Tsunami

(22 active volcanoes)

• earthquake-related(20 events recorded/day,90 damaging earthquakesfor past 400 years)

• Tsunami(~40 events for past 400 years)

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• Predict the occurrence of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes

• Determine how eruptions and earthquakes shall occur and areas likely to be affected

• Generate sufficient data for forecasting of volcanicGenerate sufficient data for forecasting of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes

• Mitigate hazards of volcanic activities through detection, forecast and warning systems

• Formulate appropriate disaster preparedness plans

326/8/2011

Technical Workshop on Support to Local Government to Improve Environmental Management in Southeast Asia_PHIVOLCS Hazard Mapping Program- 08.22.2011

Earthquake Generators: Active Faults and Trenches

Active Faults &Active Faults &TrenchesTrenches

Philippine seismicity 1600s to Philippine seismicity 1600s to presentpresent

426/8/2011


Active, Inactive and Potentially Active Volcanoes

• Pinatubo • Taal• Kanlaon• Mayon

• Bulusan• Hibok-Hibok• Matutum*• Parker*

~300 volcanoes, 22 active

526/8/2011


PREDICTION SYSTEM

MONITORING SYSTEM

NATURAL HAZARDS

Installation of monitoring instrumentsHazard and Risk Mitigation

Eruptions

RESPONSE SYSTEM

Hazard information dissemination; mainstreaming of risk reduction into local dev. Planning process (REDAS); Tsunami CBEWS

Mapping & hazard assessment

Evacuation Map Tsunami Drill

Ground Rupture due to Earthquake

626/8/2011

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Volcanic and seismic hazards mapping and risk assessment

Active fault mapping and paleoseismic studies

Study of tectonic uplift and subsidence of marine deposits

Global Positioning System

Research and Development ProgramsVolcano Hazard Map Sampling

StratigraphicHazard Map

Ground rupture Global Positioning System (GPS) for active faults and volcanoes

Tsunami modeling, hazards mapping, risk assessment, detection and warning

Tsunami ModelingGround rupture mapping

726/8/2011


Table top analysis Data on impacts

(aerial surveys, literature)

Topographic map and remote sensing interpretation

Surface Geology

interpretation Collaboration w/

RS agencies Preliminary

modeling (lahar, tsunami)

LAHARZ modeling (Iverson & others, 1998; Schilling, 1998).

Tsunami modeling for prediction of arrival time, inundation extent

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Field validation and sampling for laboratory analyses Including interviews of

residents in surveyed areas

Trenchingg Data processing (including

possible remodeling w/ new field survey data)

Generation of Hazard Maps/Deposit Maps

S-wall

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1026/8/2011


www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

1126/8/2011


N th L1. Northern Luzon2. Central Luzon3. Infanta4. Guinayangan5. Bondoc Peninsula6. Masbate Island7. Leyte Island8. Eastern Mindanao1:50,000 scale

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Regional Maps: Region I | CAR l Region II | Region III | Region IV A | Region IV B | Region V | Region VI and Region VII | Region VIII | Region IX | Region X | Region XI | Region XII | Region XIII

1326/8/2011


Other Seismic Hazard Maps (Regional Scale)

Liquefaction Prone Map

Ground Shaking Hazard Map Tsunami Vulnerability Map

Landslide Prone Map

1426/8/2011

Valley Fault Maps: Alabang | Alvarez | Bagumbayan | Diliman |Marikina | Metro Manila | Montalban |Muntinlupa | Pasig | Remedios |San Mateo | San Pedro | San Rafael | Sun Valley | TaguigValley Fault Map Index

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1:10,000 scale

Regional Maps:Region I ιRegion II ιRegion III ιRegion IV-A ιRegion IV-BRegion V ιRegion VI & VII ιRegion VIII ιRegion IX ι

1626/8/2011


Region XRegion XI ιRegion XII ιRegion XIII

Regional scale

Liquefaction Susceptibility Map of the PhilippinesLiquefaction Hazard Map of Metro Manila

1726/8/2011


Liquefaction Hazard Map of Metro Manila

Liquefaction Susceptibility Map of the Philippines

TSUNAMI RISK MITIGATION PROGRAM: Hazard Mapping Component

1. Produced tsunami hazard maps in coastal areas in the Philippines, and updated national tsunami information database;

A. Nation-wide (1:50,000 scale) – 467 sheets

B. Regional (1:10,000 scale) or larger

Utilized PHIVOLCS-developed Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) software to compute for the tsunami wave heights and inundation.

Dr. Yuichiro Tanioka -tsunami wave height Dr. Modesto Ortiz - tsunami inundation.

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1:50,000 scale

1926/8/2011


The Tsunami Hazard Maps was produced under the Department of Science and Technology-Grant-In-Aid Program (DOST-GIA) in December 2007.

,

Region I Ilocos Norte ι Ilocos Sur ι La Union ι PangasinanRegion II Batanes ι Cagayan ι Isabela

Region III Aurora ι Bataan ι Zambales

Region IV-A Batangas ι Cavite ι QuezonRegion IV-B Mindoro Island ι PalawanRegion V Albay ι Camarines Norte ι Camarines Sur ι Catanduanes ι Sorsogon

Region VI Aklan ι Antique ι Guimaras ι Iloilo ι Negros Occidental

Region VII Bohol ι Negros Oriental ι Siquijor

R i VIII E t S N th S L t I l dRegion VIII Eastern Samar ι Northern Samar ι Leyte Island

Region IX Zamboanga City ι Zamboanga del Norte ι Zamboanga del Sur ι Zamboanga Sibugay

Region X Camiguin ι Lanao del Norte

Region XI Davao del Sur ι Davao Oriental

Region XII Sarangani ι South Cotabato ι Sultan Kudarat

Region XIII Surigao del Norte ι Surigao del Sur

ARMM Basilan ι Lanao del Sur ι Maguindanao ι Sulu ι Tawi Tawi

READY PROJECT COMPONENT # 1:Multi-hazard Mapping and Assessment

• 1:50,000 scale

Flood (MGB), rain-triggered landslide (MGB), storm surge (PAGASA)

Ground rupture, ground shaking, liquefaction, p g g qearthquake-triggered landslide, tsunami (PHIVOLCS)

Volcanic hazards (PHIVOLCS)

• 1:10,000

Rain-triggered landslide (MGB), flood (PAGASA)

2126/8/2011


20111. Ilocos Norte2. Ilocos Sur3 Ab

20081. Bohol2. Aurora3. Cavite

PROVINCES COVERED

20091. Northern Samar2. Eastern Samar3. Zambales

2011 (Desktop)1. Agusan del Sur2. Nueva Viscaya3. Cagayan 4. Zamboanga Sibugay5. Quirino

3. Abra4. Benguet5. Catanduanes

4. Pampanga5. Laguna

20101. Antique –

ongoing2. Iloilo - ongoing

20071. Southern Leyte 2. Leyte

2006 1. Surigao del Sur2. Surigao del Norte

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PROVINCE GR GS EIL LIQ TSU VOLC

Surigao del Sur*

Surigao del Norte*

Southern Leyte **

Leyte **

Bohol***

Aurora***

Cavite***

Pampanga***

Laguna***Laguna

Northern Samar****

Eastern Samar****

Zambales****

Antique Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

Iloilo Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

Ilocos Norte Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

Ilocos Sur Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

Abra Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

Benguet Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

Catanduanes Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing

2326/8/2011Technical Workshop on Support to Local Government to Improve Environmental Management in Southeast

Asia_PHIVOLCS Hazard Mapping Program- 08.22.2011


1:50,000 scale

2426/8/2011


1:50,000 scale

COMPONENT # 1: Multi-hazard Mapping and Assessment in Zambales Province

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Ground Rupture Liquefaction

COMPONENT # 1: Multi-hazard Mapping and Assessment in Cavite Province

No Volcanic Threat except ASHFALL

Ground ShakingEarthquake-induced

Landslide

Tsunami


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Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS) Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS) –– March 2004March 2004


2626/8/201126/8/2011

West West Valley Valley F ltF lt

ModelModel MM CharacteristicsCharacteristics

08 08 –– West West Valley FaultValley Fault

7.27.2 Severe DamageSevere Damage

13 13 –– Manila Manila TrenchTrench

7.97.9 TsunamiTsunami

FaultFault

ManilaManilaTrenchTrench

Worst case for Manila Trench has since changed to 8.2

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Ground RuptureGround Rupture

Surface Geology of Metro ManilaSurface Geology of Metro Manila

East Valley FaultEast Valley Fault

Surface Surface GeologyGeology

Quezon CityMarikina CityPasig CityMakati CityTaguig CityMuntinlupa City

Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS)Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS)

yy

West Valley FaultWest Valley Fault

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Ground Rupture Hazard in Quezon CityEarthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS)Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS)

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Intensity DistributionIntensity Distribution(PHIVOLCS Earthquake(PHIVOLCS EarthquakeIntensity Scale Intensity Scale –– PEIS)PEIS)

IntensityIntensity(PEIS)(PEIS)

IXIXVIIIVIIIVIIIVIII

Makati

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Liquefaction PotentialLiquefaction Potential

HighRelatively HighRelatively LowLow

Makati



Fire outbreak by Fire outbreak by electrical short electrical short circuit;circuit;

ffM k ti •• Explosion of Explosion of petroleum, gas petroleum, gas tanks may cause tanks may cause spreading of firespreading of fire

LPG Refilling LPG Refilling StationStation

Makati



WestWest–– Fire, Building DamageFire, Building Damage

NorthNorth–– Bridge DamageBridge Damage

SouthSouth–– Bridge DamageBridge Damage

EastEast–– Building Damage, Bridge Building Damage, Bridge

DamageDamage



Model 13 (Manila Trench)Model 13 (Manila Trench) Average height… 2 mAverage height… 2 m Maximum………. 4 mMaximum………. 4 mMaximum………. 4 mMaximum………. 4 m Arrival time ……~ 1 hourArrival time ……~ 1 hour

Model 08 (West Valley Fault)Model 08 (West Valley Fault) Would not occurWould not occur



Heavily damaged or collapsedHeavily damaged or collapsed / Partially damaged/ Partially damaged

Residential houses……………13% (168,300 houses)Residential houses……………13% (168,300 houses)

26% (339,800 houses)26% (339,800 houses)

Government buildings ………. 8 Government buildings ………. 8 –– 10% 10% / 20 / 20 –– 25%25%

1010 30 t b ildi 11%30 t b ildi 11% / 27%/ 27% 1010--30 storey buildings ……….11% 30 storey buildings ……….11% / 27%/ 27%

3030--60 storey buildings………..2%60 storey buildings………..2% / 12%/ 12%

FireFire

Total 500 fire outbreakTotal 500 fire outbreak



Damage to LifelineDamage to Lifeline

water supply pipes…………….... 4,000 pointswater supply pipes…………….... 4,000 points electrical cables cut……………... 30 electrical cables cut……………... 30 kmskms telephone cables cut …………… 95 telephone cables cut …………… 95 kmskms



pp Cellular phone services affected due to cell site damagesCellular phone services affected due to cell site damages

Bridges …………………………….. 9 collapsedBridges …………………………….. 9 collapsedWharf ………………………………. Damage at North and Wharf ………………………………. Damage at North and

South portSouth port

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From Building CollapseFrom Building Collapse

Death………………………………….33,500 personsDeath………………………………….33,500 persons Injured…………………………………114,000Injured…………………………………114,000



From FireFrom FireDeath………………………………….18,000Death………………………………….18,000

PINATUBO ASHFALL HAZARD MAP

KANLAON LAVA FLOW HAZARD MAP



PINATUBO PYROCLASTIC FLOW HAZARD MAP

TAAL BASE SURGE HAZARD MAP

Revised Mayon Volcano Lahar Hazard Map

This Lahar Hazard Map is based on historical datasets and LAHARZ modeling results using parameters of the 2006 Supertyphoon Reming event on the October 2009 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provided by JAXA through Sentinel Asia. (July 2010)

4026/8/2011

2009 Lava Flow Monitoring at Mayon Volcano

ALOS Dec 25, 2009Lava Flow: 4.4km

NASA EO-1 Dec 15, 2009 Lava Flow: 3.0km

TERRASAR Dec 19, 2009Lava Flow : 3.2km

Source: Japan Aerosspace Exploration Agency (JAXA)/Sentinel Asia Project



Lava Volume Estimation from October 2009 and Dec 25, 2009 ALOS DEMSBASED ON adjusted DEMLava flow (Dec 25, 2009)Length = 4.3km from SummitArea = 673,200 m2Volume = 6,209,200 assume neg value are 5m

BASED ON RAW DEMLava flow (Dec 25, 2009)Length = 4.3km from SummitArea = 673,200 m2Volume = 2,658,900 assume neg value are 0’s

THICKNESS (m)

THICKNESS (m)

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Department of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Science and TechnologyPhilippine Institute of Philippine Institute of VolcanologyVolcanology and Seismologyand Seismology

Tel: (+632) 426-1468 to 79 Fax: (+632) 929-8366

Come visit us atPHIVOLCS Bldg., C. P. Garcia AvenueUniversity of the Philippines Campus

Diliman, Quezon City

or atwww.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

hazard and risk mitigation monitoring · pdf file2 volcanic and seismic hazards mapping and...

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