Spatial and Temporal distribution of drought

in far and mid western region of Nepal

Dr. Hemu Kafle

Senior Scientific Officer

Science Division, NAST

Date: 2/2/2015

What is Drought??

Droughts are recurring

climatic events, bringing

significant water

shortages, economic

losses and adverse

social consequences.

Of all the natural disasters, the

economic and environmental

consequences of drought are among

the highest, due primarily to the

longevity and widespread spatial and

extent of many droughts (Willhite

2000).

Agriculture contributes 38% of Nepal’s GDP and employs two-thirds of the

work force. However, only 20% of the land is arable and only 40% of such

arable land in Nepal is irrigated. Hence agricultural output relies largely on

favorable weather conditions, its growth is weak compared to other countries

in South Asia, and in recent years the rate has slowed.

Recent and potential

future increases in

global temperatures

are likely to be

associated with

impacts on the

hydrologic cycle,

including changes to

precipitation and

increases in extreme

events such as

droughts.

Why Drought Study in Nepal ??

Total Edible Food Availability and Requirements in Far and Mid western

region in 2009/10

Source: Seppanen and Chand, 2012

Since the 1990s, Nepal has regularly

experienced an annual food deficit,

and is reliant on imports from India

and other neighboring countries.

1. use a suitable drought index to identify major droughts for

Far and mid western region of Nepal

2. discuss the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought

events

3. quantify the severity and frequency of the major drought

events; and

4. evaluate the nature of the precipitation and temperature

associated with major drought events in Far and mid

western region of Nepal

Objectives :

Station Name Latitude Longitude Altitude Period Physiographic regions

Dadeldhura 29o 18' 80o 35' 1848 1982-2010 Middle mountain

Silgadhi Doti 29o 16' 80o 59' 1360 1987-2012 Middle mountain

Chainpur (west) 29o 33' 81o 13' 1304 1987-2010 Himalayan region

Darchula 29o 51' 80o 34' 1097 1989-2012 High mountain

Patan (Baitadi) 29o 14' 80o 56' 720 1988-2011 Middle mountain

Dipayal (doti) 29o 14' 80o 56' 720 1988-2011 Middle mountain

Dhangadhi 28o 48' 80o 03' 187 1982-2011 Terai

Mahendra nagar 29o 02' 80o 13' 176 1987-2012 Terai

Tikapur (kailali) 28o 32' 81o 07' 140 1988-2012 Terai

Far Western

development

Region :

Station Name Latitude Longitude Altitude Period Physiographic regions

Jumla 29o 17' 82o 10' 2300 1982-2012 Himalayan region Musikot 28o 38' 82o 29' 2100 1988-2012 High mountain Salyan Bazar 28o 23' 82o 10' 1457 1988-2011 Middle mountain Dailekh 28o 51' 81o 43' 1402 1987-2011 Middle mountain Tulsipur 28o 08' 82o 18' 725 1982-2011 Terai Surkhet 28o 36' 81o 37' 720 1982-2012 Siwalik Khajura (Nepaljung) 28o 06' 81o 34' 190 1982-2011 Terai

Mid Western

development

Region :

Results….

RDI index of all studied stations:

Standardized Reconnaissance Drought Index is equivalent to SPI index

SPI Category

Less than -1.0 Moderate drought

Less than -1.5 Severe drought

Less than -2.0 Extreme drought

Far western Region:

Year Dadeldhura Silgadhi Chainpur Darchula Patan Dipayal Dhangadhi Tikapur

1986 -1.05

1987 -1.4 -1.33

1989 -1.43

1992 -1.33 -1.65 -1.86 -1.07

1993 -1.82

1994 -1.36 -1.55 -1.35 -1.68 -1.59 -2.02

1999 -2.3 -2.42 -1.43

2000 -1.38

2001 -1.17 -1.03

2004 -1.4 -1.2

2005 -1.86

2006 -1.7 -1.21

2007 -1.53

2008 -1.52

2010 -2.69 -1.12 -1.38

Mid western Region:

Year Jumla Musikot Salyan Bazar Dailekh Tulsipur Surkhet Khajura

1984 -1.81

1987 -1.11 -1.32

1989 -2.66

1991 -1.4

1992 -1.61 -1.5

1993 -1.16

1994 -1.31 -2.03 -1.29

1996 -2.21

1998 -2.241

1999 -1.53

2002 -1.56

2004 -1.36

2005 -1.42

2006 -1.76 -1.28 -1.1

2009 -1.31

2010 -2.25 -2.86

2011 -1.56

2012 -1.79

Precipitation and Temperature trend of five selected stations

representing five different Physiographic region (Terai,

Siwalik, Middle Mountain, High Mountain and Himalayan

region) of Far and mid western region of Nepal…….

Conclusion

1. There were clear drought events in all of the studied stations.

2. Stations in higher altitude (Himalayan) and lowest altitude (Terai)

has experienced greater number of droughts then in other regions.

3. Some stations have experienced drought in same year, but we could

not see any specific trend according to physiographical region /

altitude.

4. Extreme drought events occurred when precipitation recorded its

lowest range.

It is clear that the major factor for drought in Far and mid western

region of Nepal is the lack of precipitation linked with summer

monsoon and wintertime circulations.

Thank you