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tvlAR Z 2 1959Honorable Richard Helms-Dlr-ector o f Cent ra l II) . tel l igence

,__ _______ ~ e I l t r a l _Int:e l l igence Agency Washington, D. C. Dear Dick:

-----':Phank you-very-much --for, your- - l e t t e r -of---March 11 . . .. Let-mes t a r t by emphasizing our area of agreement: it i s our ...... -------'-sna:red' obj"ct"ive .. to"cut - away-1nargl:nally'produc::tive .. i i l teTIigence a c t i v i t i e s . In t h i s l i gh t , l e t me trytb make c l e a r; why it i s t h a t we cannot now agree with your conclusiont h a t the HEXAGON photography would provide add i t iona l in

- t e l l i gence informat ion su f f i c i en t t o j u s t i fy i t s s ign i f i can t cos t .

L et me address th e ques t ion o f th e r e l a t i ve value of the----B:EXAGO:& system in terms o f need, cos t and r i s k s . I havea l so a t tached a paper (Tab A) which discusses the s ix

{ s pe c i f i c areas c i ted in your l e t t e r as examples o f the.sp e c i a l cont r ibut ion which HEXAGON's performance could maketo in te l l igence needs.

..Need1. I n i t i a l Rat ionale and Present Situ.ation

-A s you noted , the i n i t i a l requi rement fo r a system - l ike th e HEXAGON was s e t for th by USIB in 1964 . Since 1964,both th e CORONA {KH-413J and the GAMBIT-3 (KH-8) a l though

__J e s s expensive. systems than th e HEXAGON, have- great ly . improved .(The c h a r t a t Tab B shows t h i s . ) Consequently .. th e added'margina l value of the HEXAGON, if it i s used as a replacement

; ~ ~ 7 B Y ~ ; : ; i I t. i : : / ~ - - . _iif-'___ -_ - " ' ~ - ~ - - ~ - 6 .

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for the CORONA and par t i a l sUbsti tute for the GAMBIT-3, isnow considerably less t h ~ n it may reasonably have appearedin 1964.

- The GAMBIT-3 improved and i m ~ r o v i n g performanceagains t the surveil lance requirement demonstrates there i sno c lear need for the more expensive HEXAGON system as apar t i a l sUbsti tute in the surveil lance ro le . The CORONA,too, as you know, has improved considerably since 1964. In .recognition of such improvements in the present mix, theOSD study of November, 1968 concluded t ha t the present andimproving sampling capabil i ty of the GAMBIT-3/CORONA combination i s adequate to meet our inte l l igence needs in' thearea of Soviet bloc and Chinese Communist capabil i t ies ina i r and missi le defense, a i rc ra f t systems, missi le systems,and naval forces (page 5, par . 8, BYE-78416/68).

2. Performance and Capabili ty of CORONA/GAMBIT-3 Mix- The GAMBIT-3 I s performance for spott ing s

9 ~ ~ of the annual t a rget looks required against a l l . COMIREX targets (USIB D-46.9/l6) . This capabi l i ty wil lfur ther improve. A ll s ignif icant DIA targets are co locatedwith the COMIREX targets now covered.-- The CORONA i s adequate to meet, the requirement of

broad area search of the Soviet bloc and China. (In 1968,CORONA provided cloud-free search photography of 94% ofmainland China.) When CORONA detec ts new . t a r g ~ t s or s ig ni f icant changes in previously iden t i f ied ta rge ts , the.GAMBIT-3 can be directed to provide high resolut ion spott ingcoverage.Cost--,.......,.

1. NRO Cost Estimates vs . Probable Program costs

- The cost savings resul t ing from a, cancellat ion ofth m i i ' ; - ~ 1 t well , I believe, exce,-d the FY. 69-74 savingsof based upon the NRO est imates. Savings on theor are a more reasonable estimate. Althoughthe NRO proposal indicates t ha t the operat ing costs of theHEXAGON/GAMBIT-3 mix about equals tha t of the CORONAlGAMBIT'-3 mix, it wi l l actual ly be greater since

.H 2 n n l ~ .viaREMMI-, :m m t f J i E S l . ~ t p f 1 t

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H a n ~ l ~ Via ~ ' L . l ~ i t n i " . ... ,,""' ",CDtl. L HLa, '( TOP S (- 'ntr,,\ S y s t ~ m.J

3 The HEXAGON mix wi l l probably include 5'

ra ther than 4 GAMBIT-3 and HEXAGONons due to GAMBIT-3 I S adv,antage ofagainst HEXAGON's 30 1 l' bes t ' res olution and due to concecnsfor re~ i l i t y and frequency of c o v e r a g e ~

The CORONA mix wil l probably not requiremore than 6 CORONAls and 5 GAMBIT-3 I s asopposed to the 7 CORONA's and 7 GAMBIT-3 I snow in the NRO est imates .

- Tab C portrays detai led cost comparisons. As to potent ia l addit ional costs for mapping

sa te l l i t e s , the use of ing'sa te l l i t e s a t a cost of would3 11never be seriously cons hesystem of the CORONA would be adequate. I fthe less complicated CORONA should continue,the bulk of the proposed out-year reductionscould probably be retained.Risks

1. HEXAGON program sl ippage of 3 to 6 months wil l probablyoccur due t o technica l and management complexities. This wi l ldrive costs up and a s l ip of more than 3 months wil l requirethe extension of CORONA production--now scheduled to phaseout in the next 3 months.

2. HEXAGON launch ra tes of 4 per year now programmed may resu l t in vehicle losses which would produce a s i g n i ~ i c a n t gap in search coverage

.In summary, it does not seem tha t the arguments for the ad.ded-value of the HEXAGON adequately ref lec t the growing capabili t i e s of our present systemsi the probable added cost overtime of the H E X ~ G O N system; and the r e l ~ t e d r isk of probabletechnical di f f icu l t i e s with resul t ing delays which would increase HEXAGON 'costs and might necessi tate f u r t h ~ r CORONApurchases in any event .

TOP, S E G R E T ~

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In l ight of the factors in th is le t te r and the attachedmaterials, we feel tha t our original posit ion is jus t i fied and my s ta f f is available for more detailed discussions.

Sincerely,

Enclosures

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o f

CORONA/GAMBIT-3 d a b i l i t i e s and' H E X A ~ O N ) G A M { 1'-3 . -Capabi l i t ies on Pr io r i ty Intel l igence Proble!!!..

, '

This paper descr ibes the qual i ty o f information ava i l ab le ' from th e CORONA/GAMBIT-3 (G-3) systems mix. aga,inst examples

__ ,.-c---intelligence problems where HEXAGON ,would make. i t s grea tes t addi t iona l contr ibu. t ion, as provided in Mr .. ::elms l e t t e r to the Bureau o f the Budget, o f March 11, 1969. .

.. " , ~ c ' - t 2 ) -S igni f i can t ly be t t e r - in t e l l i gence en -Soviet and Chinese.. qround forces , inc luding force compos'itioni read iness ,and----redePloyment .

Comment: For force composit ion and readiness , theGAMBIT-3 resolut ion c lea r l ,su er ior to th e BEXAGO I 'S ,o e s a n d , w o u l d p r o v i d e i m p o r t a n t - d e t a i l s ~ o n . t h e qualgx-.and quant i ty of sov i e t and Chinese uni t s t ha t wou d not- - - - - - - - - ~ ; : ~ ; ; ~ e ; ; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ t ~ c h ~ e - H E X A ~ ~ ~ ~ G ~ O N ~ . ~ . ~ , = - ~ - e ~ n ~ c ; e ; ' _ G ~ - ~ A M B ~ ~ Z P ~ - ~ 3 ~ - h ~ a : s = - e : ; s t ~ a = b ~ - ,

I ished the s ignature or funct ion (e .g . , t a n k o r m o t o r i ~ e d t. I " - ; r i f le divis ion) o f a sround ' -force in s ta l l a t ion , then ... ~ i / < : 'subsequent CORONA coverage along with occasional updates _ ~ w i . t b GAMBIT-3 coverage is ' su f f i c i en t fa r high confidencees t imates offorce . .compasi t ian and readiness . See for

; .:.; iexample, s tud ies of th e Soviet GroUnd Force equipmentholdings in the. Byelorussian Mil i ta ry Dis t r ic t . ' (ciA, SR- - - - , I R ~ 1 - 2 - , . Q c t : ~ . ~ ~ 7 - } - - a a d - S o v i e t - - - M i l - i t a r y - F o r e e s - ~ _ o n - th e

Sino-Sovi .et Border (CIA, SR IR 68-7, Sept . 68) --,: -"For' redeployment , if it occurs over a period' o f

manths, th e CORONA!G--3 can monitor suSh changes adequately.tn 'the case o f quick redeployment, the HEXAGON I s b r o a d ,------=s=waf-wotflanave -an"--acrvaflEage... ii-{Hgooa-weather. . However, inrapid redeployment, any film recovery system i s l imi ted byth e f ac t t h a t the sa t e l l i t e must be over the target areaduring the redeploYment under cloud-free au?- d.aylight con':"d i t ions . Even then, the t ime delay from camera operat ion .to fi lm i n t e rp re t a t ion i s measured :j.n d a y ~ & , -The ga.ps, withno c r i s i s coverage, between the HEXAGON missions are longerthan those between CORONA missions.

B E X A G O N / C O R O N A / G f u ~ I T

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I tJ S $Jl..UH1.1..., [lLiiiuilll va... _.- .. . HE;XAGON/CORONA/GAMBIT / r . o n t r ~ \ S1stam 2 ,(2) Bet te r i n s igh t in to the l og i s t i c support systems o f .

-j. Communist bloc count r ies .Comment: G-3's high r eso lu t ion i s valuable in discerningsome.de ta i l s of i ns t a l l a t ions and equipment , t ha t couldo r d o ~ a v e a primary or sUbst i tu te c iv i l i an .use ( e ~ g . ; - ~ - - ---,t .truckC';taken out o f c i viliein use when' large mobi l iza t ion

. o c c u r ~ l . The Belorussian study I refer red to above" based .~ + ~ ' - - - : . . . . - on t n e ~ G A M B I T spo t t ing system and tpe CORONA search systems, .____ , ~ . ____p. t :oduceds igni f icant high confidence changes' in' our under'

.! ,s tanding o f Sovie t l og i s t i c support . Whiie it i s t rue" : , , , - - r - ~ , - - - - - - t . 1 - 1 a . t - t h e s e s tud ies were based in pa r t ,upon low-leve l oblique

a e r i a l , ~ photography, th e HEXAGON would be equal ly dependent o n n o n ~ s a t e l l i t e data .,

(3) A marked upgrading in our a b i l i t y to de tec t and evalua te . --T:--- mobile mis:s!le forces in the USSR which we an t ic ipa te shor t ly ; l i n t h i s c Q p n e c t i o n we must have t he bas i s for conf ident judgments t ha t "deployments have .!!Q.!:. occurred, as wel l as the a b i l i t yto de tec t ohce begun) . .

K _ .. ~ " " " , .,

Comment.: Given th e long ( e .g . , 2 years) .R & D phases' - ' - ' ~ " : - ' a s s ~ O c : r a t e d with s uch a new miss i le , and given the high

pr io r i t y G-3 coverage t a rge ted o n m i s s i l e t e s t - e e n t e r s ,theG';';$ would be able to es tab l i sh a s ignature of , them i s ~ i ~ ~ and i t s ' suppor t elements tha t could be used fo rl a t e r G-3 or CORONA i den t i f i c a t i on o f the systems in de.. ..ployritent p h a s e . The G-3/CORONA mix was adeguate to de tec t" - , " ' - ' ' ' ' i ' ' ' " ' ' ' ' ' ~ t h e d e p l o y : r : n e n t along the Sino-Soviet border o f ,a t a c t i c a lmiss i l e system (SCALEBOARD, S5- l2) , which i s presumablysmal le r than a mobile miss i le system su f f i c i en t ly l a rge&.:.pgse. a s t r a t e g i c th rea t to the U'.5. (See CIA, SR IM'69-7, f eb . ' 69 ) . -- - -- , - --,

Because of the i nhe ren t s e r i o ~ s disadvantageso f mobile miss i les , such as degraded accuracy, more d i f f i 'tc u l t command and cont ro l problems, lower r e l i a b i l i t y ,l i ~ i t e a su i tab le r a i l or roacr-network, e t c . , t h e Sovie t s

.'are ' ~ ~ l i k e l y to in t roduce such a system on a wide sca le( t h i s is a lso discussed in the recent CIA-5R document'4.'-' , referrf!d to above}., i.-"!..,.' , ' ~ }

HEXAGON/CORONA/GAMBIT(' r' :1-:', ,r J ~ ; - J ~ . t L . e 4

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l l ' - h ~ 1 1 i I H - -HEXAGON/CORONA/GAMBIT. ,CnnUQl S j S t 3 m ~ TG? S t C R ~ 1 ( 3(4 ) Signif icant ly improved intel l igence on a wide range of othertargets , such as Communist bloc radar stat ions, and thus f ac i l i ta t ing reduction in cer ta in typ.es of collection ac t i vi ty

Conullent. CORONA (KH-4B) ,as thE:. 1968 OSD study andrecent OAK Reports have indicated, i s adequate to.:.detect the deployment of a l l a ir defense radars andmissi les , and is occasionally able to conclude tha t a~ 1 s i t e i s unoccupied. Moreover, SIGINT sa te l l i t ecoverage is targeted to update periodical ly SAM Orderof B at t le , and thewil l be able to perform such a task in a .. Final ly , we u n d e r s t a n ~ that the SlOP missionplanning for a ir penetrat ion of the Soviet Union ei theravo;ids known s i tes (available with present capabi l i t ies)or negates them with jamming or standoff missi les .

-' (5) Broad area and high resolution coverage of sensi t ive areasf . -outside the USSR and China, such as the area of Israeli-Arabconfrontat ion, the Czech borders, or the Sino-Indian border, . '. ~ ' " '/.#,j.region.

comment: In the case of . the confrontat ion,the CORONA i s adequate for monitoring changes in a ir----::-order of bat t l e , and in other areas' of the world wherethe weather i s l ~ . s s favorable to overhead p h o t o g r a p h y ~ . a l l photographic "satel l i te systems operate within noteworthy l imitat ions. While i t i s t rue tha t the HEXAGON.system wil l provide a be t te r . opportunity for sweeping upbr?ad area? in good weather, the time delay in film recovery degrades t imely responsiveness and therefore thevalue of any film recov ON.of but it was not available for usewhen it was needed.(6) Substant ia l improvement of our capacity to monitor Sovietadherence to or violat ion of any future arms -control agreement.

Comment: Soviet t es t ing of any weapon in violat ion ofarms control t reaty prohibi t ion would be monitored closelyby the G-3 which i s already targeted with highest pr ior i tyagainst Soviet weapons Rand D t es t centers . I f the violat ion i s detectable by photo'Jraphy I the higher resolut ion

HEXAGON/GAMBIT/CORONA .BYE ...: L I . ~ b J ~ - : I : J - .

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G-3 wi l l be more able to ' detect subt le v iola t ions thanthe poorer resolution HEXAGON, and if it i s not co l l ec t ib le by photography, but ra ther by SIGINT or HUMINT,the 'HEXAGON has no special advantage.

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BEXAGON/CORONA/GA}ffiIT.B Y E _ : l L ~ k J _ - ; . f . ~ . - .

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.. , ,, , , , , ... " , . ' " . < ~ _t .".:.' -; , ," tl tq I'J L IW U~ U \ JMPROVED :PHOTOGRAPHIC, ."

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CONTROL S Y S T ~ (~ , ' '* .,

).EQUAL PERFOru1ANCE OPTIONS

.. _System Mix Options Where :Soth. Meet Current Requirements,.-Mix Option 1 pelow i s current ly approved to meet usrB

'xequirements for -both search and survei l lance inFY 70. Mix -Option 2 was thati:described-by USlB (COMlREX) in Apri l 1968, ~ . a s tha t f u t u r e - ~ c o l 1 r b i n a t i o n tha t would also meet these requirements. ; : ~ . - , ~ ~ - - ~ -

' . : - ~ Success,ul' Unit Annual . . . .",.- - - - - : ~ 1 i ; ~ t - 6 p t i o n 1 Launches Missions

" ~ , f ' /per yr . C O ~ O N A 7 6G;";4 6 5 '~ j : , : l ."7'. ;:JjFff>-L.,,_..___ ._ ._________ - ' : ~ ~ T .

C o m m e n t ~ : CaL: Nearly a l l survei l lance with bes t available , " ...- . ~ . - re$:'olution: (b) Poorer. (6 I -10 ) - res'olution for .0' I.-----sei(rch -capabi-lity,-but--adequate to cover- Sino...;.---.:--------!~ - - - - - ~ . - . : - - - - ' - - - - - - - - , .. S - o V ~ i e t bloc: (c) More G-3 missions for technicalin t1l l igence: (d) Less r i sk : and (e) -year !- - - - ' - 0....os!s (operating investment

' - . ~ - : - ~ - .

' : - ; ' ~ ~ .Mix Option 2 , , ~ /peryr . HEXAGON 5 4... : - 1 G r . : - : : ' : ' 3 ' 4 5 4;r- .-f! + , ~

', ,"" ". , ' ~ - ' " ' : ' _ . o d > . ; : . ~ ~ , ~ . ~ . ; r . , ~ * j Comments: (af lBet ter search resolut ion: (b) Less survei l lanqe ta rge t looks with best avai lable resolut ion:__-__.__ - - - - - ~ { = c ~ ) , . : j M o r e r i sk ; Higher 5-year costs _(seecomment above: more than mix option 1).1-: iNote: The C O R O N A / ~ - 3 mix would probably produce an even greater savings due the following factors : ,:13. Additional

- ---. 5-year- .1 -----'-1'1] savingsS u r v e i l l ~ n c e requirements can be m e ~ withA ..G'"73- m i : ~ s i o n s per year in mix option #1HEXAGON fould probably require 5 missionsrathert l - tan 4 in each of the f i r s t 2 years .

-'---'::--.- in mix option #2 as the s y s t e ~ i s maturing- Adqitiol)al HEXAGON development costsThese.thr o ta l cost, d i f fe ren t i a l o f over a 5-yearyer iod cHA V.IA """'"I"ft.' DV.. 1: -.' .1.L.td:.L- ~ J . NDLE . . . . C ..NTROL S.S. TEM. -" ~ ~ . : : " .,,1;. " ! ~ 1 ' . ~ ~ - ~ . . . Illli.--.-- - - ..... O ~ . : f ! l , . ; - ~ t ; . ) ...... __._ . __

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