housing completions are strongest in those census ......kitchener-cambridge-waterloo ottawa-gatineau...

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Change in number of households, 2006-2011 (%) Average annual housing completions per 1,000 population, 2006-2011 Per capita completions based on average of 2006 and 2011 census population counts. Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) and adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Canada) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Kelowna Oshawa Abbotsford-Mission Windsor Thunder Bay St. Catharines-Niagara London Québec Toronto Moncton Trois-Rivières Hamilton Peterborough Sherbrooke Brantford Kingston Greater Sudbury/ Grand Sudbury Barrie Guelph Victoria Calgary Montréal Halifax Edmonton Winnipeg Saguenay Vancouver Saskatoon Regina Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Ottawa-Gatineau Saint John St. John’s All CMAs Canada Trend line Housing completions are strongest in those Census Metropolitan Areas with the fastest growth in number of households A Thousands of units Annual growth (%) Employment growth calculated from average monthly employment during the year. Income growth based on quarterly average during the year. Real disposable income = disposable income/consumption deflator. Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) and adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM) Employment (left scale) Real disposable income (left scale) Housing starts (right scale) Average housing starts (right scale) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 50 100 150 200 250 Recovery in employment since the 2008/2009 recession, and continued growth in real disposable income are providing a solid foundation for housing activity. Annual housing starts are at about the long-term average B

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Page 1: Housing completions are strongest in those Census ......Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Ottawa-Gatineau Saint John St. John’s All CMAs Canada Trend line Housing completions are strongest

Fig A

Change in number of households, 2006-2011 (%)

Average annual housing completions per 1,000 population, 2006-2011

Per capita completions based on average of 2006 and 2011 census population counts.

Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) and adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Kelowna

Oshawa

Abbotsford-Mission

Windsor

Thunder Bay

St. Catharines-Niagara

London

Québec

Toronto

Moncton Trois-Rivières

Hamilton Peterborough

Sherbrooke

Brantford

Kingston Greater Sudbury/Grand Sudbury

Barrie Guelph

Victoria

Calgary

Montréal Halifax

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Saguenay

Vancouver

Saskatoon

Regina

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

Ottawa-Gatineau

Saint John

St. John’s

All CMAs

Canada

Trend line

Housing completions are strongest in those Census Metropolitan Areas with the fastest growth in number of households

a

Thousands of unitsAnnual growth (%)

Employment growth calculated from average monthly employment during the year. Income growth based on quarterly average during the year. Real disposable income = disposable income/consumption de�ator.

Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) and adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

Fig B

Employment (left scale)Real disposable income (left scale) Housing starts (right scale)Average housing starts (right scale)

-2-1012345678

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

Recovery in employment since the 2008/2009 recession, and continued growth in real disposable income are providing a solid foundation for housing activity.

Annual housing starts are at about the long-term average

b

Page 2: Housing completions are strongest in those Census ......Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Ottawa-Gatineau Saint John St. John’s All CMAs Canada Trend line Housing completions are strongest

The monthly mortgage payment is calculated using the prevailing average MLS® price and the 5-year �xed mortgage posted rate prevailing in each period, assuming a 25% down payment and 25 year amortization. The income �gure is personal disposible (after tax) income per worker.

Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), unpublished data, and CREA (MLS®)

Average mortgage payment as a percentageof personal disposable income per worker

is close to its long-term average

Fig C

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990

Q1

1991

Q1

1992

Q1

1993

Q1

1994

Q1

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

Per cent

Average mortgage payment-to-income ratio

Mortgage payment-to-income ratio

c

Source: Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

Debt-service ratios are below ornear their long-term averages

Fig E

1990

Q1

1991

Q1

1992

Q1

1993

Q1

1994

Q1

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

Interest paid on debt as % of personal disposable income

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Average mortgage debt

Average consumer debtConsumer debt

Mortgage debt

e

Most mortgage holders have substantial equity in their homes1

Fig D

1 Mortgages and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) are deducted from the home values.

Source: CAAMP Con�dence in the Canadian Mortgage Market, May 2012

19%

72%

9%

<10% 10% - 24.9% ≥ 25%

d

Source: Canadian Bankers Association

The percentage of residential mortgages three months or more in arrears

has been on a decline

Fig F

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Per cent

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Average arrears rateArrears rate

f

Housing markets are supported by strong demographic, economic

and financial fundamentals

Page 3: Housing completions are strongest in those Census ......Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Ottawa-Gatineau Saint John St. John’s All CMAs Canada Trend line Housing completions are strongest

Victoria

Vancouver

498,300

779,730

Thunder Bay

Sherbrooke

Moncton Trois-Rivières

St. John’s

164,393156,919

Montréal

Winnipeg

St. Catharines-Niagara

Hamilton

Kingston

Calgary

Halifax

Kitchener-Cambridge-WaterlooGuelph

Oshawa

Barrie

158,561

251,581

215,449

241,408

333,498

223,066

260,950

237,283

314,013

261,968

287,588

312,305314,450

305,100

402,851

Brantford

Saint John

Québec

178,951

Regina

Gatineau

Saskatoon

Greater Sudbury/Grand Sudbury

Windsor

London

Edmonton

Toronto

Canada

Peterborough

Ottawa

247,138

166,008

277,473

234,268

344,791

325,595

233,731

301,232

254,605

363,116

466,352

Saguenay

229,485

MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association.The geographic de�nitions used by CREA differ from those used by Statistics Canada.

Source: CREA (MLS®), QFREB by Centris®

MLS® average prices in Vancouver were about 5 times those in Trois-Rivières in 2011

Fig G

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$800,000

170,354

g

Thunder Bay

Sherbrooke

Moncton

Trois-Rivières

St. John’s772

547

Montréal

WinnipegSt. Catharines

-Niagara

Hamilton

Kingston

Victoria

Calgary

Halifax

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

Guelph

Oshawa

Vancouver

Barrie

715

771

577

875

884

833

925

792

719

965

1,001

889

941

903

1,045

1,237

1,084

Brantford

Iqaluit 2,356

Saint John

Québec

557

Regina

Gatineau

Saskatoon

Greater Sudbury/Grand Sudbury

Windsor

London

Edmonton

Toronto

Canada2

Peterborough

Ottawa

670

718

753

932

731

1,086

1,034

881

966

899

856

1,149

Saguenay

881

Abbotsford-Mission 800

Kelowna922

Yellowknife 1,566

1 In privately initiated apartment structures with at least three units.2 Based on provincial data.

Source: CMHC (Rental Market Survey)

$1,200

$2,400

$1,100

$1,000

$900

$800

$600

$500

$700

Average rents1 for a two-bedroom apartment varied widely in 2011

Fig H

Vacancy Rate: Above national averageNational average 2.9%Below national average

Whitehorse810

h

Housing costs range across markets