housing lecture

Housing & Urban Development

Fourth Lecture

Contents

Land is a valuable resource that needs careful management. Every planning authority (municipality or planning district) is required to have a development plan with policies generally consistent with the Provincial Planning regulation to guide the use of land. The planning should be in a way that the designation of land should correspond to the changing land needs of a community and not be wasteful of land.

Demand for Residential Land Introduction

• After a community has an idea of future population growth or loss, it can analyze what the implications of that future population growth or loss will mean for land consumption. Plans to manage growth need to include an accurate estimate of land required to accommodate future growth.

• The planning process should convert forecasts of population and employment into requirements for land "need" or demand. This conversion involves a variety of factors. It is necessary to convert population forecasts into forecasts of households (both single-family and multi-family) which the community will add during the future planning horizon (often 10 or 20 years).


• The number of houses and other dwelling units that need to be built is a better indication of future land needs than population. Average household size (how many people per dwelling unit) will be a determinant of how many houses are needed to house the projected population growth. Household size will probably vary by community. Generally, household size has declined over the years.

• Communities also need to calculate residential densities (how many dwellings per acre). This figure will be different for single-family and multi-family dwelling units. The density figure will allow the community to project how much land will be consumed to develop the projected growth in households.


A development plan should ensure a balance between the amount of land designated for residential use and the demand for lots. An adequate supply of appropriately located and designated residential land encourages orderly development in a strategic, planned manner.

Why to know demand for Residential Land

A residential supply and demand study will inform a planning authority of the appropriate amount of land that should be designated for residential use in the short-term (five to 10 years) and longer-term (15 or more years) planning horizons..

Why to know demand for Residential Land

Demand for Residential Land is mainly dependent on Two factors

Population Housing Types

How to know Demand for Residential Land

Population Estimates and Trends Information regarding population estimates & trends

will help in estimating the future demand for residential land.

The first step is to determine the target population that the development plan seeks to accommodate.

So in order to determine population initially we have to identify the population of the planning area for the last four census reporting periods.

Population

• After having above data now following questions should be answered.What is the past and current population?Has the population been increasing or decreasing?How much has the population changed?

Population

Census Year Census Year Census Year Census Year

Population Population Population Population

What factors have contributed to this change?So the factors which are affecting Population Change could be

Birth rate Migration Improved Health Facilities

Population

• The next thing in population estimation is to determine the average increase in population per year.

Population

Five Year Avg

Five Year Avg

Population Per Year

Population Per Year

Affect of Development opportunities on Population• After having average population figure now we have

to identify development opportunities occurring on, or within close proximity to, the borders of our planning area.

• What is the nature of the development (type and size)?

• What effect will it have on the residential demand in the planning area?

Population

Future Population Estimates• Provide a range of estimates to cover a range of

scenarios from the most optimistic (highest growth) to the pessimistic (low growth).

Population

Population Projected In..

Low Medium High

5 years

10 years

10 years

10 years

Future Population Estimates•What major factors in the planning area or the region will influence the population (increase or decrease) in the future? (Ex: large infrastructure project, increasing immigration rates, natural population growth, economic downturn, large employer layoffs or shutdown.

How is the population changing? What are the demographic trends? Are there more or less school-aged children, working age people or retirees? What is the median age of the population? Has it changed from the last

census period? Are the people living in the area long time residents or do they move in and

out more frequently? What is the ratio of home owners to renters? Has this changed over time? Compare the age profile of the population from the most current census year

to the census year five years previous. Have there been any changes? What are the trends?)

Population

ASSESSING HOUSING TRENDS•Answering these questions will provide information on the type of housing demanded and any residential construction trends in the planning area. •Along with population information, this may provide insight into the land requirements necessary to accommodate various types and forms of residential development both now, and in the future.

HOUSING TYPES

ASSESSING HOUSING TRENDS•List the number of new dwelling building permits for at least the last 10 years or since the last development plan was adopted, by type (see example below).

HOUSING TYPES

ASSESSING HOUSING TRENDS•Is the number of building permits increasing or decreasing? What are the five year and 10 year averages?•What factors have contributed to this increase or decrease? What factors may cause an increase or decrease in building permits in the future?•To get an idea of the development pressures in the planning area, how many residential subdivision applications were received since the current development plan was adopted? •How many and what type (ex: urban residential, rural residential, farmstead) of lots were applied for?.

HOUSING TYPES

ASSESSING HOUSING TRENDS•How many of each type of residential lot have been approved since the current development plan was adopted?

Lots less than 15,000 square feet Lots between 15,000 square feet and one acre Lots between one and two acres Lots between two and five acres Lots greater than five acres?.

HOUSING TYPES

Sir need ur kind guidance in this sectionAs per my knowledge factors might beLevel of incomeLocationIncentivesStandards etc

Factors need to be considered for supply of housing type

• The population and housing profiles developed for the planning area can now be used to estimate the type and amount of housing required in the future.

• The profiles can also be used to estimate the amount of residential land required to accommodate this demand.

• The two important questions that should be answered at this stage Anticipated demand for various housing types? How many of each dwelling unit type will be required in

10 years? 20 years?

How to know the type of Housing Demand & Land requirement

• Analysis of demographic trends of any settlement may reveal a future preference or need for a certain type of dwelling unit.

• For instance, an aging population may be an indicator of a future demand for senior’s apartments.

• To accommodate this trend, a planning authority may consider increasing the number of multi-family dwelling units and decreasing household size in the analysis.


• Analysis of socio economic trend of any settlement may also help in determining the type of housing demand.

• If the income level in a certain area is less so the future housing demand of that particular locality would be totally different from a high income area.

• Some time the planning guidelines also provide help in the allocation of future housing type i.e. As per NRM in every housing schme minimum 20% of the plots should be reserved for low income & sizes of those plots shouldn’t be greater than 5 Marla.


Land Calculation•After having the information that how much percentages we have to dedicate for different types of houses , the calculation of land is very easy then.•For example if we came to know that in a certain locality we have to provide 40% of plots to a low income people .•The next step is simply to decide the sizes of those low income plots according to certain criteria's.•Sum of all will give total land required for that particular segment of society•Similarly we can do calculation for Medium & high income population.


Demand for Housing depends on various factors Affordability. Rising incomes mean that people are

able to afford to spend more on housing. During periods of economic growth, demand for houses tends to rise. Also demand for housing tends to be a luxury good. So a rise in income causes a bigger % rise in demand.

Factors Affecting Demand of Housing

Population.• A very important factor. It is not just the number of

people but demographic changes. e.g. growing number of single people living alone has led to increasing demand for houses.

Factors Affecting Demand…

Effective Demand.• Another factor that determines the effective demand

for houses is the willingness of banks to lend mortgages. If banks give mortgages with bigger income multiples, then the effective demand for houses is greater

Housing situation in developing countries

Confidence.• Demand for houses depends on consumer confidence.

In particular it depends on people’s confidence about the future of the economy and housing market. If people expect prices to rise, demand will rise so people can gain from rising wealth. In a boom, demand for houses rises faster than incomes as seen in graph above

Factors Affecting Demand…

Factors Affecting Demand…Interest Rates.•Interest rates play a big factor in determining the cost of mortgage interest repayments.

Example•When interest rates reached 15% in 1992, demand for housing collapsed, causing a large fall in demand for housing. The relatively low interest rates of the 90s and 2000s, encouraged more to buy a house.

Factors Affecting Demand…• However, in 2008-09, interest rates were cut to

0.5%. Even though interest rates were very low, demand also remained low. This was because, other factors were reducing demand for housing – like the recession and prospect of rising unemployment.

References

Will be added in final copy

Things to be covered in next lectureWhy to know supply of residential land & Housing demand.Factors to be considered for supply of residential landHow to estimate existing supply of residential landFactors to be considered while designating new areas for Housing?Few other factors which should be kept in mind while calculating future housing demand like Migrations & Obsolete factorsExample of Housing calculation

housing lecture

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