how much does a mars mission cost? brian enke swri boulder, co [email protected] author:...
Post on 18-Dec-2015
216 views
TRANSCRIPT
How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?
Brian Enke
SwRI
Boulder, [email protected]
AUTHOR:
Shadows of Medusa
Brainstorming....
Follow any thread of thought.
Never ridicule or dismiss any idea.
Write everything down!!
How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?
Paul Recer (AP), Gregg Easterbrook (New Republic), et al:
ONE TRILLION DOLLARS
“Huh???”
How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?
Bob Zubrin, et al:
ABOUT TWO BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR*
* INVESTMENT per YEAR!
How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?
President Bush, Sean O'Keefe, et al:
PAY AS YOU GO
➢ $6 billion per year?
How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?
$2b / year?
$6b / year?
More?
Less?
Somewhere inbetween?
All of these estimates are possible.
➢ US deficit spending➢ (PAYG = PWCWA)➢ CHEAPER MISSIONS
ARE EASIER TO SELL
➢ What IS a Mars Mission, anyway?
How Low Can We Go?
Well, What Do You Want To Do?
We Need....
A Baseline Mission!!
➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)
We Need....
A Baseline Mission!!
➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)
➢ Risk assessment
We Need....
A Baseline Mission!!
➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)
➢ Risk assessment
➢ Timeframe
We Need....
A Baseline Mission!!
➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)
➢ Risk assessment
➢ Timeframe
➢ Investment per year
Baseline Mission: Mars Direct(NASA estimates from 2003)
➢ ROI: Good science
➢ Crew of 4 for 2 years
➢ 500 km surface range
➢ Payload: 54 tonnes
➢ Risk: Medium
➢ 7 years to develop
➢ $3.5 billion / year
Mars Direct $$ Assumptions(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)
Mars Direct $$ Assumptions(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)
Baseline Mission: Assumptions
● Ongoing investment vs. development investment
● Divide mission investment by 2 for ongoing (per year)
● $25m/tonne-to-Mars per launch (or $1b/Ares)
● $250m/lander, $1b/ERV
How Low Can We Go?
Zero Risk, Zero Investment Mission(Procrastinator's Paradise)
● Do Nothing
● Cancel the whole space program
● Donate space shuttles to museums
● Reduce the US federal deficit by $16 billion (to 429 billion)
➢ ROI: No investment
➢ Crew of 0 for (Inf) years
➢ 0 km surface range
➢ Payload: 0 tonnes
➢ Risk: Zero
➢ 0 years to develop
➢ $0 billion / year
Robotic Missions(Goodlife)
● Repeat the past 30 years
● Do Mars exploration solely with robotics
● Develop lots of human mission plans and theories
● Give talks at seminars
● Do some remote science to satisfy pesky scientists
➢ ROI: Minimal Science
➢ Crew of 0 for (inf) years
➢ 1 km surface range (now)
➢ Payload: < 5 tonnes
➢ Risk: Low
➢ 0 years to develop
➢ $1 billion / year
Find The Robot
Absolute Minimal Human Mission(Millionaire Burial)
● Send 1 person, crash landing
● No equipment
● No life support
● No return: Dead On Arrival
➢ ROI: RIP
➢ Crew of 1 for 0 years
➢ 0 km surface range
➢ Payload: <1 tonne
➢ Risk: Low to (Inf)
➢ 0 years to develop
➢ $0.1 billion / year
Minimal Living-Human Mission(Lonely Planets)
● Send 1 person safely
● No equipment
● Minimal life support for 1 year ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water)
● No return: Die On Mars
● Per Mission: $700m
➢ ROI: Tech demonstration
➢ Crew of 1 for 2 years
➢ 0 km surface range
➢ Payload: 12 tonnes
➢ Risk: Low (volunteer)
➢ 5 years to develop
➢ $0.35 billion / year
Long Term Minimal Mission(Settlement)
● Send 3 people safely
● Base building equipment
● CELSS life support for 6 years ($1b hab, 2 Ares)
● No return: Die On Mars
● Per Mission: $4b
➢ ROI: Mars settlement
➢ Crew of 3 for (Inf) years
➢ 500 km surface range
➢ Payload: 50 tonnes
➢ Risk: Medium (volunteer)
➢ 7 years to develop
➢ $2 billion / year
Minimal Return Mission(Lonely Science)
● Send 1 scientist safely
● Science equipment, ATV
● Minimal life support for 2 years ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water, 2 Ares)
● Return: ERV
● Per Mission: $4b
➢ ROI: Minimal Science
➢ Crew of 1 for 2 years
➢ 10 km surface range
➢ Payload: 40 tonnes
➢ Risk: High
➢ 7 years to develop
➢ $2 billion / year
Mars Direct
● Send 4 people safely
● Science equipment, Rover
● CELSS life support for 2 years ($700m hab, 2 Ares)
● Return: ERV
● Per Mission: $7b
➢ ROI: Good science
➢ Crew of 4 for 2 years
➢ 500 km surface range
➢ Payload: 54 tonnes
➢ Risk: Medium
➢ 7 years to develop
➢ $3.5 billion / year
NASA Mars Reference Mission(Nuclear Propulsion is our Best Friend)
● Send 6 or more people safely
● Science equipment, Rover
● CELSS life support for 2 years ($1.5b hab, 3 Ares)
● Return: ERV (orbit+surface)
● Per Mission: $12b (assume $2b for propulsion)
➢ ROI: Good science, tech
➢ Crew of 6+ for 2 years
➢ 500 km surface range
➢ Payload: 100 tonnes
➢ Risk: High
➢ 10 years to develop
➢ $6 billion / year
How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?
How Low Can We Go?
Well, What Do You Want To Do?
We Need....
A Baseline Mission!!
➢ Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)
➢ Risk assessment
➢ Timeframe
➢ Investment per year
http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~benke/present/mars/missioninvest2004.html
This presentation may be freely distributed. Please contact the author with any suggestions or corrections.
Brian Enke
Southwest Research [email protected]
Author: Shadows of Medusawww.shadowsofmedusa.com