human resource forecasting students

8/4/2019 Human Resource Forecasting Students

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ASSESSING HUMAN RESOURCE

REQUIREMENTS


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REQUIREMENTS

Assessing Human Resource Requirements

implies to Evaluatethe requirements of

personnel in an organization.


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REQUIREMENTS

Stages in Assessing Human ResourceRequirements:

1. Analyzing Organizational Plans

2. Human Resource Planninga) Forecasting Demand for Human resources (Manpower

Forecasting)

b) Forecasting Supply of Human resources

3. Estimating Manpower Gaps4. Action Planning

5. Monitoring and Control


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REQUIREMENTS

1. Analyzing Organizational Plans and Policies

Determining objectives

Generating plans and policies that provide direction

for future course of action

Various subsystems hence devise their own plans

and programmes

All manpower plans stem out of business plansrelating to nature, level and organization of activity

contd..


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REQUIREMENTS

contd..

Questions in this regard can be:

Are vacancies to be filled by promotions form

within or by hiring from outside? How to ensure availability of adaptive and flexible

work force?

How to enrich employees job?


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REQUIREMENTS2. Human Resource Planning

The prediction of future levels of demand for, and supply of, workersand skills at organizational, regional, or national level.

Taking direction from objectives, plans and policy considerations,human resource plan is prepared.

Planning process consists of two activities:

a) Forecasting Demand for Human resources (Manpower Forecasting)

b) Forecasting Supply of Human resources

Aim of these type of forecasting:

to find out additional requirement of personnel, Both in terms of quality and quantity,


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REQUIREMENTS

a) Forecasting Demand for Human resources

(Manpower Forecasting)

Future needs of human resources in an

organization are anticipated on the basis of:

Corporate and functional plans and

Future activity levels


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REQUIREMENTSa) Forecasting Demand for Human resources (Manpower

Forecasting)

Purpose of Manpower Forecasting:

To quantify the jobs necessary for producing a given number

of goods, To determine what staff mix is required in future,

To assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts of theorganization,

To avoid unnecessary cost,

To avoid shortages of people where and when they areneeded most and

To monitor compliance with legal requirements with regardto reservation of jobs.


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REQUIREMENTS

a) Forecasting Demand for Human resources(Manpower Forecasting)

Techniques for manpower forecasting are:

1. Managerial Judgement Method

2. Delphi Technique

3. Work Study Technique

4. Ratio- Trend Analysis

5. Statistical and Mathematical Models


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting1. Managerial Judgement Method

Conventional method,

Managers prepare forecast of HR needs on basis of past experience,

This method can be used in two alternative ways:

a) ----top management prepares HR plan for the whole orgnaizationwith assistance of HR department,

-----the plan so made is circulated amongst various departments formaking necessary changes,

-----after receiving documents from various departments, HR needsare then finalised in a committee, after a meet with departmentalheads.


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting

1. Managerial Judgement Method

b) Bottom up approach

-----departments are given broad guidelines toprepare their own plan for HR needs,

------the plans are then reviewed and consolidatedby HR departments,

------a comprehensive HR need plan is made


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REQUIREMENTSTechniques for manpower forecasting

2. Delphi Technique:a) Named after ancient greek oracle at city of Delphi

b) Used for group decision making

c) Steps followed:

a) a small group designs questionnaire about problem under study ismade,

b) It is then sent to various experts

c) They fill up questionnaire independently without interaction withanyone

d) The filled questionnaires are analysed by designere) If there is lot of divergence, a new questionnaire is madeand sent to

larger group

f) The process is repeated until some consensus is reached

Contd..


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REQUIREMENTS


Contd..

2. Delphi Technique:d) Useful where solution requires subjective

judgements on a collective basis

For eg: what shall be the trend of fashionnext year.


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecastingContd..

2. Delphi Technique:

e) Use of Delphi Technique in Human Resource needs:

First:

To know the trends for changing job profile,

Changing personnel profile internationally or within the

country.Second:

To know about changing profile of personnel in theirrespective departments due to changing environment.


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting3. Work Study Technique

Based on volume of operation and efficiency of

personnel, volume of operation derived from organizational

plan documents and

Increase/ decrease in operation can thus bemeasured.

Work efficiency or productivity or work being doneis measured by Time and motion study


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REQUIREMENTS



Standard Time required per unit of work canbe calculated

Example:


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting3. Work Study Technique

Example:

Planned output for next years: 50,000 unitsStandard hours per unit : 2

Planned hours required : 50,000 X 2 = 1,00,000

Productive hours per worker

in the year : 2,000

Number of workers required : 1,00,000/ 2 =50If the span of control is ten, then,

50/10 = 5 supervisors will be required to supervise the work


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REQUIREMENTS



Appropriate for repetitive and manual jobs

Appropriate when it is possible to measure

work and set standards


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REQUIREMENTS


4. Ratio- Trend Analysis

a) Ratios are calculated on the basis of past data

b) Future ratios are calculated on the basis of time

series analysis

c) Expected changes in organization as methods and

jobs are kept in mind

d) HR needs are calculated on the basis of various

ratios and likely trends


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting4. Ratio- Trend Analysis

Ratios as:a) Total output/ number of workers,

b) Total sales volume/ number of sales persons,

c) Direct workers (supervisory) / indirect workers(managerial personnel)

d) Etc. are calculated.


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting4. Ratio- Trend Analysis

Example:

Production level in 2006-2007 = 50,00units

Number of workers in 2006-2007 = 50

If the span of control is ten, then,

50/10 = 5 supervisors will be required to supervise thework

Ratio = 5 : 50,000 or 1: 1,000


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REQUIREMENTS

Techniques for manpower forecasting5. Mathematical Model

It expresses relationship between independent

variables (e.g. investment, production, sales, etc.)and dependent variable (e.g. number of employeesrequired)

Methods used include: Statistical regression analysis Simulation models

Productivity ratiosunits produced per employee

Staffing ratiosestimates of indirect labor needs


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REQUIREMENTS

Forecasting Periods

Forecasting is generally done for :

Short-termless than one year

Intermediateup to five years

Long-rangemore than five years


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Forecasting

Methods

Figure 2

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REQUIREMENTS

FACTORS FOR FUTURE DEMAND FOR HUMAN

RESOURCES

1. Employment Trend

2. Replacement Needs

3. Productivity

1. Better utilization of existing manpower

2. Automation and computerization4. Absenteeism

5. Expansion and Growth

human resource forecasting students

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