hurricane dorian briefing - onancocksituation overview hurricane dorian hazard impacts location...
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HURRICANE DORIANBRIEFING
www.weather.gov/akq
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
NWSWakefieldVA
6:00 AM EDT
Prepared by: WFO Wakefield, VA
What has changed: Slightly later timing of heavy rainfall and strong winds.
The information contained within is time-sensitive. Do not use after 6:00 PM EDT Wednesday
By 6:00 PM EDT WednesdayNext Briefing:
Disclaimer:
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Flooding Rain
Prolonged periods of heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding.
Eastern VA and Northeast NC. Thursday night and Friday.
Wind
There is the potential for life threatening
winds/wind damage.
Eastern VA, Northeast NC, and
Southeast MD (Highest threat across
coastal Northeast NC).
Thursday night and Friday.
Storm Surge/
Inundation
While it is still too early for any specific
storm surge values, some locations have
the potential to see moderate to major
tidal flooding.
Anywhere along the coast, but most
likely along lower Chesapeake Bay,
southeast Virginia, and northeast
North Carolina.
Friday into Saturday.
Tornado
Limited to no potential for Tornadoes.
Marine
Very dangerous to extreme marine
conditions are likely.
All coastal waters/nearshore waters,
Chesapeake Bay, Sounds and lower
tidal rivers.
High rip current risk lasting
through the week. Other
marine threats developing
lateThursday into Saturday.
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.
Immediate Concerns for the Local Area High risk for rip currents and hazardous seas.
Upcoming Concerns for the Local Area Confidence is high that we will see direct impacts as
early as Thursday afternoon with impacts most likely Thursday night through Friday.
Confidence is increasing with Dorian’s forecast track but changes are still possible.
Key Takeaways Do not focus on the track alone. Impacts will
occur well away from the center.
Now is the time to complete your hurricanepreparedness plans.
Monitor forecasts and seek information from trusted, official sources.
Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Threat LevelsHurricane Dorian
Winds SurgeRainfall/
FloodingTornadoes
Incre
asi
ng T
hre
at
For information on specific hazards in this area,
please go to https://www.weather.gov/akq/tropical
Moderate
High
None
Moderate
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
• A Hurricane Watch remains in
effect for portions of Northeast
North Carolina, including
Elizabeth City.
• A Tropical Storm Watch remains
in effect for much of Eastern
Virginia (including Hampton
Roads) and Northeast North
Carolina.
• A Storm Surge Watch is in effect
for coastal northeast North
Carolina and Hampton Roads
Hazard OverviewHurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
The threat for tropical storm force winds
has increased further, especially across
Southeast Virginia and Northeast North
Carolina where they are now likely.
The most likely time of arrival of tropical
storm force winds is Thursday night based
on the current NHC track.
Monitor forecasts and trends with future
updates.
TS Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
50 Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
The threat for 50 knot winds has
increased and is highest along the
immediate coastal areas of Southeast VA
and Northeast NC.
Probability of 50 knot winds is likely to
increase as arrival time gets closer.
Monitor forecasts and trends with future
updates.
Hurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities
The threat for hurricane force winds has
increased slightly along the immediate
coast of Northeast North Carolina.
Probability of hurricane force winds may
increase as arrival time gets closer.
Monitor forecasts and trends with future
updates.
Hurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
The earliest reasonable time of
arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds
for Northeast NC and Eastern VA is
Thursday afternoon.
However, the most likely time this
area could see Tropical Storm Force
Winds will be late Thursday night into
Friday morning.
Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival Hurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
The most likely time of arrival of
Tropical Storm Force Winds for the
Northeast NC and Eastern VA is
Thursday night into Friday morning.
However, this area could see Tropical
Storm Force Winds as early as
Thursday morning.
Most Likely Time of ArrivalHurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
There is a potential for:
Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, especially if soils are saturated.
A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
Scattered power and communication outages can be expected.
Wind Threat / Potential ImpactHurricane Dorian
Wind Threat
Potential for wind greater than 110 mph
Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph
Wind less than 39 mph
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Maximum Wind GustsHurricane Dorian
Note:These winds are highly
dependent on storm track.
Based on the expected track,
wind gusts to 60 to 70 mph are
expected along the immediate
coast. Farther inland, gusts of 45
to 55 mph are expected over
eastern Virginia. Gusts of 30-40
MPH are expected along the
Interstate 95 corridor, including
Metro Richmond
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Moderate to major flooding coastal
flooding is possible.
Locations of greatest risk:Anywhere
along the coast, but most likely along
lower Chesapeake Bay, southeast Virginia,
and northeast North Carolina.
Timing: Storm surge inundation could
begin as early as Thursday night, with
period of greatest concern coming with
high tide cycle Friday late morning and
afternoon.
Potential Storm Surge FloodingHurricane Dorian
Note: Visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=akq for the
latest tidal flooding forecasts.
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Marine Threat PotentialHurricane Dorian
Very dangerous to
extreme marine
conditions are likely
Thursday through
Friday.
Do not focus on
the track alone.
Impacts will occur
well away from the
center.
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Confidence is increasing that portions
of Eastern VA and Northeast NC will
see locally heavy rainfall.
Exact amounts will be dependent on
the track and speed of Dorian.
Timing for potential heavy rain is
from Thursday night into Friday.
Potential Storm Total RainfallHurricane Dorian
Note: Confidence is increasing that portions of the area will see locally heavy rainfall.
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Storm Total rainfall forecast
valid Thu afternoon through
Friday night.
Locally, most rain will occur
Thursday night into Friday
afternoon, lingering into Friday
night along the coast.
Expected Storm Total RainfallHurricane Dorian
Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Areas outlined have the
greatest potential for flash
flooding Thursday through
Friday morning.
Excessive Rainfall OutlookHurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
There will be a High Rip
Current Risk at area beaches on
Wednesday as large swells from
Dorian arrive.
A High Rip Current Risk is
expected through this week.
Increased Rip Current RiskHurricane Dorian
The latest surf zone forecast can be found at:http://www.weather.gov/beach/akq
9/4/2019 6:21 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Key Take-AwaysHurricane Dorian
Confidence is HIGH that the event will occur
Confidence is INCREASING regarding exact impacts
In addition to strong rip currents and increasingly rough surf, marine conditions will become very
dangerous to extreme due to increasing waves and the potential for tropical storm or hurricane
force winds Thursday night and Friday.
Prolonged periods of heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding for portions Eastern VA and Northeast NC.
Tornado potential is low to none based on the current storm track.
There is the potential for surge and tidal flooding, potentially moderate to major in places, late
Thursday through Friday in the Bay and along the coast.
There is the potential for life threatening winds/wind damage across portions of Eastern VA, Northeast
NC, and Southeast MD. The most likely time of arrival is Thursday night into Friday morning based on the
current NHC track.
www.weather.gov/akqNWSWakefieldVA
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