idc españa predictions 2012

IDC EspañaTop 10 Predictions 2012

Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

Centro Innovación BBVA, Madrid14 de diciembre de 2011

#prediccionesIDC

Compitiendo por el futuro en un mercado cada vez más complejo

AgendaAgenda

Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones

Dec-11© IDC 2

Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Revisión de las predicciones de 2011

Predicción Mensaje Métrica Acierto

La incertidumbre se vuelve a instalar en España

IDC pronosticó un crecimiento plano en 2011

TIC crecerán -1,5%, las TI el -3,5%

CIO vs CIOChief Innovation vsIntelligence vsInformation Officer

Principios 2011, 60% CIOscriterio inversión max valor y min riesgo, finales un 68%

Vuelta a las raíces Reinvención de la HP - PSG, Nokia-Microsoft,

Dec-11© IDC 3

Vuelta a las raíces Reinvención de la oferta para crear estrategias de valor

HP - PSG, Nokia-Microsoft, New Fujitsu, Google-Motorola, etc.

La demanda de tecnología consumo en eclosión

Tecnología de consumo, media y contenidos

En 2011, 3 millones más de conexiones móviles a internet frente a 1 millón desde el PC

Eclosión y guerra de los dispositivos de consumo

TIC Prosumer vs TIC Consumerization

Smartphones & tables han crecido un 22% en España

Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Revisión de las predicciones de 2011

Predicción Mensaje Métrica Acierto

Social Business coge velocidad

Tecnologías para la productividad del puesto de trabajo

El 14,7% de las empresas españolas tienen implantadas soluciones social business

Expansión del Universo Digital

Mayor presión en la gestión de la información

La información ha crecido más de un 50% en España

Dec-11© IDC 4

Digital

La batalla de la Nube

La Nube se consolida -comienza la adopción

Más del 15% de las empresas españolas ya utilizan Cloud Computing en 2011

Internet -eCommerce

Del bajo coste y la desintermediación a propuestas de valor

El negocio B2B y B2C ha crecido un 24%. +2 Millones de usuarios redes sociales.

El nuevo rol de la red

Millones de conexiones y redefinición del operador

+2 Millones de líneas M2M en España en 2011

AgendaAgenda


Dec-11© IDC 5

The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational Excellence

The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational Excellence

INDUSTRY BASED

NETWORK BASED

UC and collaboration

Rev

enue

Infrastructure rationalisation

and lower cost of

Dec-11© IDC 6

Increase portfolio

and service flexibility

BASED

Telecom market

2000 2015

Infrastructure

Rev

enue

and lower cost of delivery

The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Way to the "Outside-In"The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Way to the "Outside-In"

TabletsPOP

PCs

CPE

Dec-11© IDC 7

Televisions

Netbooks

Peoplemachine

Smart metres

Shifting demand patterns means a Broader Context for the Telco CIO Shifting demand patterns means a Broader Context for the Telco CIO

TabletTEL

Network Infrastructure

Own

Mobile

Dec-11© IDC 8

LCO

Own Datacentre

IT Infrastructure

Third-Party Infrastructure and Services

TVs

PCs

Smart Metres

BUSINESSES

CIO opening up digital platform: balancing the need

INDIVIDUALS

Lifestyle individual: preferred device(s), anywhere access

HOUSEHOLDS

Domestic household: balancing household

Balance of power shifting to the Demand Side: Balance of power shifting to the Demand Side:

Dec-11© IDC

balancing the need for security and process with the consumerisation of devices, applications and user behaviour

anywhere accessBrand

balancing household members' demands, budget, entertainment, educationTension with egov

9

THINGSvehicles, buildings, meters …

Embedding in process verticals

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Mobile Data

Mobile Voice

Fixed Data

Fixed Voice

CAGR1%

Spending by Users on Telecom Services by CountrySpending by Users on Telecom Services by Country

$ Billions

Turkey

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mobile Data

Mobile Voice

Fixed Data

Fixed Voice

$ Billions

Germany

CAGR-2%

30

35

Spain

CAGR-1%

Dec-11© IDC

02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mobile Data

Mobile Voice

Fixed Data

Fixed Voice

$ BillionsRussia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mobile Data

Mobile Voice

Fixed Data

Fixed Voice

$ BillionsSweden

02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11

CAGR-1%

CAGR2%

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mobile Data

Mobile Voice

Fixed Data

Fixed Voice

European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition:What’s up and what’s not!European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition:What’s up and what’s not!

WE Markets in Decline

150

200

250

WE Markets Growing

80

100

120$ Billions$ Billions

Dec-11© IDC

0

50

100

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TDM Voice Other Fixed Data

Mobile Messaging Mobile Voice

11

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ethernet Mobile Data

IP VPN Broadband

Source: WE Telecom Services Database, 3Q11

Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita (2011)Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita (2011)

US

JP

CA

AUCH

DK

SGNO

Fix

ed S

pend

ing

per

Cap

ita

Dec-11© IDC

CN

BR

DE FRGBIT

IN

ES

KR

TW

AE

DK

FI

KW

Fix

ed S

pend

ing

per

Cap

ita

Mobile Spending per Capita

12

Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11

Western Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smart phones as new dominant platformWestern Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smart phones as new dominant platform

250

300

350

400

M U

nits

Western Europe Client Devices Forecast

Dec-11© IDC

0

50

100

150

200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

M U

nits

Desktop Notebook Mini Notebook Media Tablet Feature Phone Smartphone

Sources: IDC EMEA PC Tracker Forecast Update Q2 2011 , IDC EMEA Media Tablet and eReader Forecast - Q2 2011, Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker - 2011 Q2 - Forecast

The need for Unified communications in the workplaceThe need for Unified communications in the workplace

Dec-11© IDC 14

Security

With all of the digital components routes to Market become criticalWith all of the digital components routes to Market become critical

Dec-11© IDC 15

Key video trends drive consumer choiceKey video trends drive consumer choice

On demand

High definition

Multiscreen

?Digitization

Dec-11© IDC 16

Multiplay Connected TV

Plethora of choices allows personalized experience, but also causes confusion and inconvenience

= opportunity for operators!

Multiplatform competition

The ‘love/hate’ triangle: partners and competitorsThe ‘love/hate’ triangle: partners and competitors

Mobile operatorsControl over network performanceSome control over the user experienceSubsidises and sells mobile handsetsBilling and customer care relationship

Device brand and service brand contend with the operator brand eg: Apple, RIM (Blackberry)

Purchasing power constrains vendors’ freedom over handset features, branding

Established brands and free service model trump operators’ own brands and paid service model

Can make sure that mobile internet users see operators’ brands and services first

Dec-11© IDC 17

Device vendorsControl over device featuresControl over out-of-box software/contentSome control over the user experienceBrand loyalty

Internet service brandsEstablished user base and brand loyaltyEstablished systems & processesExpertise in media-based models

Extending device brands to internet servicesEg: Apple (iTunes), Nokia (Ovi)

Extending service brands to devicesEg: Google (Android), Microsoft (Windows Live)

handset features, branding brands and services first

Managed

Equipment

Integration

Consulting

Outsourcing

Bui

ldD

esig

n

Traditional IT servicepure-play positioning

Networkequipmentproviders

The Telco Advantage in the cloud Eco system for business customersThe Telco Advantage in the cloud Eco system for business customers

Dec-11© IDC 18

Access

Traffic

Maintenance

Managed Services

Run

Basic telecombusiness positioning

More advanced telecombusiness provisioning

Voice Data WANLANHosting/

Data-centre

Desktop/Mobile

BusinessApps

BusinessProcess

Communication services IT/business services

Telcos are One of the Possible Deliverers of the Final ServiceTelcos are One of the Possible Deliverers of the Final Service

MNC

SME

Dec-11© IDC 19

Consumer

Devices

MobileDevices & Apps

MobileBroadband

CloudServices

Big Data/ Analytics

Social Business

Third Platform for Industry GrowthThird Platform for Industry Growth

Millions

Trillionsof “Things”

Dec-11© IDC

& Apps

2011

PC

LAN/Internet

Client-Server

1986

Millions of Users

Thousands of Apps

Hundreds of Millions of Users

Tens of Thousandsof Apps

Billionsof Users

Millionsof Apps

of “Things”

AgendaAgenda


Dec-11© IDC 21

La recuperación tendrá que esperarLa recuperación tendrá que esperar

Escenario 1: Mayor Integración

Escenario 2:Ruptura del Euro

¿Qué quiere ser europa?

Dec-11© IDC

... Con riesgo de recesión... Con riesgo de recesión

Índice R (Recesión)

Dec-11© IDC

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fuente: Google insigth

Mercado TIC en perspectivaMercado TIC en perspectiva

4%

8%

07 08 09 10 13 14 150%

TI

TIC

11 12

Dec-11© IDC

-4%

-8%

07 08 09 10 13 14 150%

C

11 12

Software

IT ServicesHardware

La composicón del mercadoLa composicón del mercado

2011

HardwareIT Services

2012

Software

Dec-11© IDC

2011

Telecom services

2012

Telecom services

>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%

Client system Client system

Zoom en el hardwareZoom en el hardware

2011

2012

Dec-11© IDC

Server system

Periphrals& add ons

Periphrals& add ons

>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%

Storage

Network equipment

Storage2011

2012

Server system

Network equipment

Personal computer Personal computer

Zoom en ”Client systems”Zoom en ”Client systems”

2011

Tabl

ets

& e

Rea

ders

Tabl

ets

& e

Rea

ders

2012

Dec-11© IDC

>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%

2011

SmartphonesSmartphones

2012

2012: Salto digital de los clientes…U

sabi

lidad

LBSRealidad aumentada Nueva era de

Dec-11© IDC

Usa

bilid

ad

Proliferación dispositivosServicios cloud

LBSMedios de pagoApp. MóvilesB.A. Móvil

Realidad aumentada MultitouchReconocimiento vozPatrones movimiento

Nueva era de servicios de

consumo

2012: punto de no retorno de …

+ Redes sociales

+ Adopción de Dispositivos

+ Barrera personal/profesional

Dec-11© IDC

•Infraestructura: Ruptura ciclo de vida

•Estrategia : Mitigación de riesgos

•Operaciones : Complejidad del soporte

AgendaAgenda


Dec-11© IDC 30

4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación

Dec-11© IDC

4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación

Nuevos modelos de negocio

Dec-11© IDC

Crece la madurez en Social Business

Las personas son el centro

Consistencia Cultura

Gestión Conocimiento

5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada

Dec-11© IDC

5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada

Personas con sensores

M2M: el pegamento

Internet of Things

Nuevos modelos de negocio

Dec-11© IDC

e-care-healthSmart grids

Dispositivos inteligentes

6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones

Dec-11© IDC

6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones

No Sí

Dec-11© IDC

Flujo continuo de datos

No Sí

AgendaAgenda


Dec-11© IDC 37

7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales

Dec-11© IDC

7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales

#3 Vijay Govindarajan

Dec-11© IDC

#3 Vijay Govindarajan“Reverse Innovation”

8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TICAn innovation that is disruptive allows a whole new population of consumers access to a product or service that was historically only accessible to consumers with a lot of money or a lo t of skill . Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can include: lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and

services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions when

compared against traditional performance metrics .

Dec-11© IDC

#1 Clayton Christensen“Disruptive Innovation”

compared against traditional performance metrics .

8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC

Outsourced Public CloudOptimization

Low

PartnershipPublic

Service

Business

Zero-Defect, Zero-Defect, Enablers

Service D

elivery S

upply Chain

Gre

ater

Inte

grat

ion

Acr

oss

Clo

ud

(Priv

ate

to P

ublic

)

“Convergence” of Private to Public Cloud Services”

Key to Market Inflexion

Greater Integration Across Public Digital

Services Supply Chain Elements

Dec-11© IDC

HybridService Delivery Maturity

Zero-Defect, Carrier Class,

Automated Delivery

Zero-Defect, Carrier-Class,

Automated Service Delivery

Model

EcosystemPrivate

Low

2010 2020

Outsourced Private CloudTransformation and Optimization

Service Delivery Model Key

SaaS (Operations)

IaaS (Operations)

PaaS (Development)

TaaS (Testing)

Enablers to

Market Creation

Service D

elivery S

upply Chain

Gre

ater

Inte

grat

ion

Acr

oss

Clo

ud

Typ

es(P

rivat

e to

Pub

lic)

Greater Integration Across Private Digital Services Supply Chain

Elements

8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC

Dec-11© IDC

#2 W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne

“Blue Ocean Strategy”

9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos

Dec-11© IDC


15%Conversión

1.8Meses

201017 meses

201119 meses

Interacción

Dec-11© IDC

Conversión

42% Conversión

31,5% Conversión

50% Conversión

44% Conversión

22,5% Conversión

Meses

3.1Meses

3.5 Meses

5.3Meses

1.3Meses

4.1Meses

Interacción Personal

Interacción Digital

SQL/WIN = 22%

Contacto/SQL = 7%

Exploración

Evaluación

Compra


CIO

90’s Actualidad

Grupo Decisión

Dec-11© IDC

Fuerza Comercial

Fuentes Independientes

90’s

Fuerza Comercial

Fuentes Independientes

Actualidad

The Third Platform for IT Industry Growth & Innovation

But They Are Connected to Each Other But They Are Connected to Each Other

Dec-11© IDCCopyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

By 2020, when the ICT industry reaches $5 trillion — $1.7 trillion larger than it is today —at least 80% of the industry's growth will driven 3rd Platform technologies and solutions.

2012 Will Be About Competing for 20202012 Will Be About Competing for 2020

Dec-11© IDCCopyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

technologies and solutions.

In 2012, battles to lead the ICT marketplace of 2020 will start to be won and lost.

Emerging Markets Impact Is GrowingEmerging Markets Impact Is Growing

Emerging markets will account for 28% of global IT spending in 2012

�14% growth over 2011

�53% of all 2012 IT spending growth

China will pass Japan in IT spending

Dec-11© IDC Dec-11© 2011 IDC 6

�With 28% of emerging markets spend, and 2012 growth of almost 20%

Emerging markets products and vendors will drive into developed markets

In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"

2012 will be “like” 2011, but very different:• Mobile devices will have won decisively• Cloud platform battles will be in full force• Social technologies will be a “must have”• Big Data will be next essential capability• Vertical competency will be at the core of

next-generation solutions

Dec-11© IDC Dec-11© 2011 IDC 15

next-generation solutions• Emerging markets are already the new

center of growth, driving new design points• New players will no longer be “disruptors”• Incumbents will face “crossroads” moments

Requires greater urgency, to jump aboard the third platform, and join the “lead packs”

Dec-11© IDC 55

The Asia/Pacific IT MarketsPriority Geographies

Market Growth

Emerging GrowthThai: $6.6B

9.4% Mal: $6.6B9.1%

Dec-11© IDC

Market Size

AdvancedNZ: $4.2B6.2%

Tai: $6.8B6.1%

HK: $7B8%

9.1%

Source: IDC vQ3 2010 APJ Blackbook, Nov 2010 (All data for 2011 in US$, 2011 YoY)

Sí, lo es…

Big DataEnterprise MobileNext

ConsumerizationSocial Business

Cloud Computing Adoption Trends

LATAM

Dec-11© IDC

LATAMAPAC

Oriente MedioEuropa del Este

Esto te hace responsable de detectar cada oportunidad, de

liderar tu futuro.

Assess

Leverage IDC’s local and global

resources to help you better assess

Leverage IDC’s market research and local

expertise to ensure your marketing is

Prepare

Leverage IDC’s brand and market

presence to enhance relationships by

Execute

Dec-11© IDC

resources to help you better assess

your local market. For example:

We can help you prioritize your target

markets with local data & guidance:

• by Industry

• by Geography

• by Technology

• Installed Base, Growth, Forecasts

We can help you create a customized

local TAM

We can help you understand the

competitive positioning of solutions

We can help with local clustering and

segmentation assessments

expertise to ensure your marketing is

locally relevant and your sales teams can

stand above their competitors.

We can increase industry and solution

knowledge of your field sales force

• Industry Training Workshops

• Bulletproofing sessions for messaging

• Understand KPI of influencers

Our analysts have access that can help

you create deeper understanding of key

clients. Our strategic account profiling

can get deep into tier one accounts

• Business issues

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• Influencers

presence to enhance relationships by

delivering value and resources in “sales

neutral” environments.

• Industry Workshops/Roundtables

• Account-specific IT road-mapping

• Customized account benchmarking

activities

• Whitepapers/Thought-leadership

content

• Industry/geography specific case

studies

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61