iiss 2009 the manama dialogue
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
1/20
IISSnews De. 2009
Pressing threats to regional security, includ-
ing Irans nuclear programme and the conict in
Yemen involving Houthi rebels, were vigorously
discussed at the 6th IISS Regional Security Summit,
held in Manama, Bahrain from 11 to 13 December
2009.
Iran sent a strong delegation to the Manama
Dialogue. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Moaki
addressed the rst plenary session and caused a
urry of media stories when his answer to a ques-tion was interpreted as making a new oer in the
long-running international confrontation over the
countrys nuclear facilities.
The Yemen conict was the subject of lively
argument in a televised debate recorded at the
Dialogue by the Al-Arabiya network. As Saudi
Arabian ghter aircraft continued a campaign of
air strikes against guerrillas in the region bordering
northwest Yemen, the main question was whether
Iran was providing support to the Houthi rebels.
Ministers, military chiefs, ocials and experts
from many countries again took part in the
Manama Dialogue. The Crown Prince, Salman bin
Hamad Al Khalifa, hosted a dinner for ocial del-
egates on 12 December.John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief
Executive, announced that the Institute would
establish a regional oce in Bahrain in 2010. As
well as undertaking research activities, the oce
would help to ensure the annual IISS summit
serves the evident needs of the region for a more
wide-ranging, trans-regional and inclusive regional
security dialogue.
Current institutions and organisations do not
serve that purpose, and current freelance ad hoc
diplomacy does not provide the necessary coher-
ence to advance wider regional stability, Chipman
said. A forum that requires the regular assembly
of parties who are often in dispute or at conict
creates the possibilities for the planned discussions
that are a pre-condition to potential diplomatic rec-
onciliation.
Giving the Keynote Address to the opening
dinner, Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem
Al Sabah, Kuwaits Deputy Prime Minister and
The Manama Dialogue 2009
The Sixth IISS Regional Security Summit
Te Manama Diaue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Sut Asia Prramme. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
IISS Fus n Afanistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Transnatina Treats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Nnpr iferatin Prramme . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Russia Eur asia Prr amme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
IISSAsia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Eurpean Seurit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
IISSUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
P u i a t i n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
2/20
MANAMA DIAlogUE
| DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
Minister of Foreign Aairs, expressed the hope
that the Manama Dialogue would provide such
a forum for many years to come. Members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council must, he said, join
forces to contain threats to their national security.
Their concept of preventive diplomacy involved
peaceful, transparent, good-neighbourly relations
that avoided the use of ideologies.
Al Sabah was particularly concerned about
the challenge posed by demographic changes,
including rapid population growth, the increase
in migrant worker numbers, and the fact that the
children of migrant workers were entering the
competition for jobs. He added that it was essen-
tial for Gulf countries to preserve their cultural
identities.
Iran
With the United States and other countries con-
sidering new sanctions against Iran because of
lack of progress in discussions on its nuclear
programme, the country provided a major
focus for the Dialogue. Some Gulf countries, in
particular the United Arab Emirates, have been
stepping up purchases of military equipment,
apparently because they perceive a heightened
threat.
In his speech, Moaki said Iran opposed nuclear
weapons.Questioned on the nuclear programme,
he noted that the Tehran research reactor had been
built with American help, and the Bushehr nuclear
power plant with French and German support.
But because all this help had been withdrawn, Iran
had determined to be self-sucient it needed
1015 nuclear plants for electricity generation.
Once bien, twice shy, Moaki said.
Responding to a question from Mark Fipatrick,
IISS Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation, Moaki
objected to suggestions that Iran had not
responded to a proposal discussed in Geneva in
October, under which Iran would ship 1,200kg of
enriched uranium out of the country, to be further
enriched into fuel for the Tehran reactor. Iran was
proposing a middle way to allow the exchange to
take place on the Iranian island of Kish in phases
of 400kg. Is not that a response? he asked. Why
are you pleading ignorance? Sanctions, he said,
were illegal and ineective, and Iran would not
give up its rights to develop nuclear capabilities.
While Washington soon indicated that it saw noth-
ing new in Moakis remarks, it remained to be
seen whether a deal such as that tentatively agreed
in Geneva might still be possible.
The concerns of other countries about Iran
were evident. Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin
Mohammed Al Khalifa, Bahrains Minister of
Foreign Aairs, said the biggest threat to the
region was the possibility of conict between
Israel and Iran over the nuclear programme. Lives
will be lost, vital resources will be put in jeopardy,
the world economy will undoubtedly suer and
all our eorts towards regional development and
prosperity will be signicantly hindered, Khalid
said.
Relations between Iran and its neighbours
needed to be improved. Khalid proposed several
condence-building measures: coordination of
responses on disaster risk reduction, for example
on severe dust storms; a regional development
programme providing expertise and assistance
in areas lacking basic resources; and regional
consultations to prevent a future regional nuclear
disaster.
Kuwaits Deputy Prime Minister Al Sabah said
Irans programme needed to follow the guidelines
of the International Atomic Energy Agency. If the
United Nations Security Council agreed on a new
round of sanctions, he said, this region is going
Dr John Chipman opens the summit Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah delivers the Keynote Address
The Al-Arabiya debate (lr): Dr Mamoun Fandy, Jerey Feltman, Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalia,
and Ali Muhammad Al Anisi
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
3/20
MANAMA DIAlogUE
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 3
to enter into a period of tension. Iran is a major
player in the Gulf. Any tension with Iran would
reect on the relationship between the GCC and
Iran.
General David Petraeus, Commander, US
Central Command, said Irans posture had
prompted a warmer regional embrace of the
United States. Far from encountering a credibility
gap in the region as one questioner suggested
the US was strengthening its partnerships with
Gulf countries. The recruiting ocer for such
partnerships was Iranian President Mahmood
Ahmadinejad, Petraeus said. Over the past year,
the United Arab Emirates had ordered $18bn
worth of American defence equipment, includ-
ing Patriot missile baeries. He suggested that the
UAEs eet of F-16s would be able to take out the
Iranian air force.
Calling Iran a thugocracy, Petraeus said that
following the hijacked elections, Irans Supreme
Leader had resorted to using the Revolutionary
Guard and Basij militia to contain protests. This
ever-growing control over the levers of power
made it dicult to reach out to Iran and nd a
willing partner at the other end.
Regional conficts
The region is beset by several ongoing conicts.
Since 2004, the Manama Dialogue has provided an
annual snapshot of the war in Iraq, where the situ-
ation is now much improved but still fragile. The
2009 Dialogue took place days after US President
Barack Obama set out a new strategy to deal with
the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. While
the Dialogue discussed this situation in depth,
it was the are-up of conict in Yemen that rst
caught the aention of delegates.
Sporadic ghting has occurred for ve years
between Yemeni government forces and the Shia
Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia denies its bombing
raids in the mountainous border area have hit
targets across the border. Meanwhile, Iran denies
Yemeni government accusations that Iran is pro-
viding support to the Houthis.
Al-Arabiya, the Dubai-based television net-
work, made the conict the subject of its televised
debate on the rst evening of the Dialogue. Ali
Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman of Yemens
National Security Agency, said foreign interven-
tion had contributed to the outbreak of violence.
Jerey Feltman, Assistant Secretary for Near
Eastern Aairs in the US State Department, said
Washington did not have independent information
to support allegations of Iranian interference, but
supported the government in its eorts against the
insurgency. Mamoun Fandy, IISS Senior Fellow
for Gulf Security and Corresponding Director,
IISSMiddle East, made fun of the tendency to
allege foreign intervention without specically
naming Iran; he referred instead to intervention
by Martians. An Iranian ocial denied his coun-
try was helping the Houthis, and quoted love
poetry to emphasise the close ties between Tehran
and Sanaa. Sheikh Khalid, the Bahraini Foreign
Minister, said Yemens stability was vital and it
was necessary to support the government there.
The other panellists agreed: in Fandys view, there
was a risk of Yemen becoming a failed state, and
the situation posed a real challenge to the security
of the entire Gulf region.
The worsening conict in Afghanistan has
been of primary concern to policymakers and
military chiefs in all Manama Dialogue participant
nations throughout the year. Karl Eikenberry,
a frequent participant in IISS events as a gen-
eral and now US Ambassador to Afghanistan,
intervened from the oor to explain aspects of
President Obamas December announcement
that 30,000 more American troops would be sent.
There were several aims: to break the momentum
of the Taliban-led insurgency, to signal American
resolve, and to move towards the comprehensive
strategy integrating military and civilian eorts
that NATO had embraced. While the mid-2011
date for the beginning of the US troop withdrawal
was rm, the drawdown would depend on con-
ditions and on the growing aspirations of Afghan
security forces. To the clear-hold-build approach
had been added the crucial word transfer, and
eorts were focused on creating conditions in
which this could be done. The new policy would
thus have a forcing function.
Manouchehr Mottaki, Foreign Minister, Iran
Hoshyar Zebari, Minister o Foreign Aairs, Iraq
Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalia,
Minister o Foreign Aairs, Bahrain
Vecdi Gnl, Minister o Deence, Turkey
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
4/20
MANAMA DIAlogUE
4 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
Masoom Stanekzai, adviser to President Hamid
Karzai on Home Security, said the governments
new approach put stress on taking more responsi-
bility for the security of Afghanistan, building the
capacity of the Afghan institutions, and ghting
corruption. He welcomed the strategy of General
Stanley McChrystal, the American commander,
to protect the population. But he drew aention
to severe problems such as drugs and endemic
poverty, which drew young unemployed men
towards extremism. Regional cooperation was
essential: There is a lot of discussion and lot of
good will, but there is a need for improved action
on the ground, he said. An increasing number
of youths from the border region with Pakistan
were nding jobs in the Gulf. Using their income
to support their families, they gradually distance
themselves from extremist groups and contribute
to the well-being of the population in those areas.
This showed scope for regional cooperation to
change the dynamics of the insurgency.
Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi,
Pakistans Minister of Foreign Aairs, said the
past eight years had seen an inordinate focus on
military solutions, with reconstruction eorts not
improving the lot of ordinary Afghans. Pakistan
welcomed Obamas recent announcement and
his rearmation of partnership with Islamabad.
However, he said clarity and coordination was
needed on implementation of the strategy and he
looked forward to engagement ensure there was
no adverse eect on Pakistan.
Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State
Secretary to the Minister of Defence, Germany,
said much progress had been made in Afghanistan
since 2001, but the security situation had deterio-
rated considerably, including in the North where
Germany had responsibility. Based on the out-
come of the international conference planned for
January in London, Germany and other European
countries would reconsider their levels of civil and
military commitment.
Amid the renewed eorts to end the conict
in Afghanistan, there were continuing worries
about the sustainability of hard-won progress in
Iraq. Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Aairs,
recalled that before the era of Saddam Hussein,
Iraq had a positive impact on the Gulf, ourishing
culturally and economically as a regional trend-
seer. We are now working hard to return Iraq
to the stability and prosperity it enjoyed before its
downward spiral, so that it can play the role we
want it to play in promoting stability, security and
prosperity in the Gulf, Zebari said. Out of conict
had come new skills, such as the expertise of spe-
cial operations forces in combating terrorists and
insurgents. These, he said, were key elements in
expanding security in Iraq: following the American
withdrawal, there would be no security vacuum
to be lled by any external players. The coming
elections in March 2010, he said, would determine
Iraqs future, fate and course for years to come.
Vecdi Gnl, Minister of Defence, Turkey,
agreeing that the Iraqi elections were of paramount
importance, said Kirkuk was a source of concern,
and a selement acceptable to all groups there was
essential to ensure stability. Zebari said relations
with Turkey were improving, with various agree-
ments reached, but we get sensitive when we see
Kazuya Shinba, Senior Vice Minister or Deence, Japan
Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Minister o Foreign
Aairs, Pakistan
M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser to the Indian
Prime Minister
Masoom Stanekzai, Adviser to the President on Home
Security, Aghanistan
Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary to the
Minister o Deence, Germany
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
5/20
MANAMA DIAlogUE
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 5
our neighbours trying to interject ourselves on how
this country could be run or elected or governed.
Kirkuk was an Iraqi city, and the Iraqi people had
to decide its future.
Answering a question, Zebari said there had
been serious problems in supply of water to Iraq
from both Turkey and Iran. New agreements were
necessary between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. On
a recent series of car bombs in Iraq, Zebari said
these were aimed at paralysing and embarrassing
the government, and further eruptions of violence
should be expected before the elections. However,
it was clear that terrorists were relying on spec-
taculars and were no longer able to sustain their
aacks. Asked about Syria, Zebari said relations
were problematic and Baghdad had intelligence
that former members of Iraqi security forces who
were living there had strong connections with the
Syrian authorities. Recent bomb aacks, while
not the work of foreign ghters, had required the
kind of logistical support that could only be found
among such people. Talks with Damascus on the
issue had led nowhere.
Petraeus said progress in Iraq was fragile and
reversible but emphasised the sharp reduction in
violence. The number of aacks and violent civil-
ian deaths in November 2009 was the lowest of any
month since the US-led invasion in 2003. Violent
incidents had fallen by over 90% since spring 2007.
As the US drew down its forces in Iraq, it was work-
ing to foster closer relations between Iraq and other
Arab countries. I would remind my Arab broth-
ers that if there is concern about certain inuences
in Iraq, then it would be wise to increase the Arab
inuence in that critical country, Petraeus said.
A plenary session was devoted to plans for
nuclear power. M.K.Narayanan, National Security
Adviser to the Indian Prime Minister, said the
world was embarking on a nuclear renaissance
and that much of the new activity was taking place
in the Middle East and Asia. Nuclear energy was
the only way to ll Indias projected energy decit
of 412MW by 2050. Indian scientists were work-
ing at the cuing edge on fast breeder reactors
and thorium-based technologies. International
cooperation was needed to shape the growth of
nuclear power and to ensure security and safety
needs were met. The possibility of terrorists gain-
ing access to nuclear materials and technologies
and the shadow of nuclear terrorism is perhaps
the gravest threat to global security and mankind
at this moment, Narayanan said.
Kazuya Shinba, Japans Senior Vice Minister
for Defence, noted there was increasing momen-
tum for nuclear disarmament. While there were
worries Japan might acquire nuclear weapons in
response to North Koreas nuclear development,
he said there is no way that Japan will possess
nuclear weapons. Japan would continue to pursue
disarmament through the Six-Party Talks and
hoped all nuclear weapon states would undertake
multilateral or bilateral reduction eorts.
Among other issues raised was the need for
improved security frameworks in the Gulf region.
Petraeus said the past year had seen an increase in
the number of joint operations, exercises, and bilat-
eral and multilateral arrangements. Interaction
with partner countries had helped to develop the
concept he described as multi-bilateralism the
integration of bilateral activities to achieve multi-
lateral eects. This was occurring in shared early
warning, air and missile defence, and achievement
of a common operational picture.
Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaar, Adviser to
the King of Bahrain on Diplomatic Aairs, and
Chairman of the Bahrain Centre for Strategic
International and Energy Studies, said the Gulf
should aspire to logical security arrangements
which would involve the GCC countries, Iran,
Iraq and inuential outside powers. This would
produce a stable, inclusive architecture meeting
the concerns and interests of all parties. However,
for the time being the region would have to make
do with what he called the Realist Perspective
making the best of what we have, rather than
striving for an unreachable goal. He outlined steps
towards the eventual goal, including the building
of mutual condence and ensuring the region had
a credible voice in its own security. The GCC
needed a new strategic concept seing out a vision
of its role in regional security.
Ali Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman o National Security
Agency, Yemen
Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalia
General David Petraeus, Commander, US Central
Command
Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaar, Adviser to the King o
Bahrain on Diplomatic Aairs
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
6/20
MANAMA DIAlogUE
6 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
The central question for the group was how
to move from conict resolution into a much
broader mode of conict prevention and post-
conict consolidation. The Gulf region faced
threats including conicts between nation
states, communal disturbances, illegal track-
ing, piracy, terrorism, insurgency and resource
depletion. While the strategic role of the Gulf was
based on its oil resources, society was undergo-
ing rapid change, economic and demographic
developments were intensifying, and there was a
growing awareness of human rights issues.
The security environment was now a major
focus for discussion at Gulf Cooperation Council
summits involving redenition of the role of the
armed forces, development of military equipment
and capabilities, new concepts of joint operations
and, politically, joint defence policies.
A similar eort was needed in Afghanistan
to recalibrate coalition eorts so as to meet the
objectives of local control of security forces,
development of the police force, judiciary and
court system, education and healthcare sys-
tems and greater agricultural expertise. This
entailed enhancing civilian authorities and
development of a regional structure overcom-
ing the problems of distance, dicult terrain
and paerns of regional and tribal loyalties.
Aid programmes worked beer if decentra-
lised, but funds needed to be injected directly
and linked with stringent execution targets and
performance monitoring.
The approach of the United States would be
conditioned by the forthcoming Quadrennial
Defense Review which would examine both
state and asymmetric threats and the capacity of
partners to meet them. In the Gulf, strengthen-
ing partnerships, dealing with daily threats such
as improvised explosive devices, state support
for non-state actors, cyber and maritime threats
required not only funding for key programmes
but reinforcing national synergies and capa-
bilities. In Afghanistan, a whole of government
approach would be pursued, drawing in civilian
professionals so as to create long-term stability.
Break-out group : Military Transformation, Intelligence and Security Cooperation
The session agreed that Iraq had travelled a long
way in a positive direction over the last two years.
There had been a marked decline in violence and
instability as well as sectarian or sub-national
identities. Iraq had passed through occupation
and civil strife and was heading towards a posi-
tion where it could completely reclaim its own
sovereignty.
With the completion of the current round for
foreign bids to invest in the oil industry, Iraq was
poised to make the shift from economic backwa-
ter to regional powerhouse. The next stage would
be national elections in March 2010. While the
aftermath may see a messy and prolonged pro-
cess of government formation, the result should
be a new government with a ve-year term and a
democratic mandate.
Relations between the United States and
Iraq are now shaped by the Status of Forces
Agreement passed by the Iraqi parliament
in November 2008. The fact that Iraq did not
face a security vacuum when US troops with-
drew from the cities in June 2009 indicates the
capacity of the Iraqi armed forces to control the
country.
Relations with neighbours have in the past
been volatile and unstable, driven by fear, eco-
nomic competition and sectarian rivalries. Even
today some regional powers are apprehensive.
For example, Iraqs relations with Kuwait are
mixed: Kuwait backed regime change in Baghdad
in 2003, but is uneasy that Iraq has been unwill -
ing unambiguously to agree to the demarcation
of borders.
Iraq is one of Turkeys top foreign policy
issues and forms a central part of its aim to have
zero problems with its neighbours. Turkey kept
its embassy in Baghdad open throughout the
post-war violence and managed to keep an equal
distance from all Iraqs communities. Turkey con-
tinually urged Iraqs Sunni population to take
part in the reconciliation process. Overall, the
breakout group was optimistic about the future
of Iraq but it indentied continuing tensions
between Iraq and its neighbours.
(lr): Sh Thamer Mi Al Sabah, Vice-
President, National Security Bureau,
Kuwait; Sadiq Al Rikabi, Political
Advisor, Prime Ministers Oce, Iraq;
Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director,
IISSUS and Corresponding Director,
IISSMiddle East; Jerey Feltman,
Assistant Secretary or Near Eastern
Aairs, US Department o State; Murat
Ozcelik, Ambassador o Turkey to Iraq
(lr): Alexander Vershbow, Assistant
Secretary or International Security
Aairs, US Department o Deense;
Brigadier-General H.R. McMaster,
Chie, Concept Development and
Experimentation, Training and
Doctrine Command, US Army;Consulting Senior Fellow, IISS;
Brigadier Abdulrahman Al Hadoud,
Director o Military Intelligence, Kuwait
Armed Services; and Karl W. Eikenberry,
Ambassador o the US to Aghanistan
Break-out group : Iraq and the Region
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
7/20
MANAMA DIAlogUE
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 7
Because of the geo-strategic importance of the
region to trade and energy ows, and the con -
tinued high frequency of aacks on merchant
vessels there, piracy has continued to constitute
a signicant security concern in the Gulf of Aden,
and indeed the wider western Indian Ocean, over
the last year. Maintaining free access through the
Strait and ensuring unimpeded transit remain
vital for global well-being. International concern
has prompted unprecedented multinational naval
intervention, with contributions from 17 states.
The group heard that in Southeast Asia,
closer cooperation among lioral states helped
to reduce the problem of piracy in the Malacca
Strait to negligible levels. But in the Somali case,
naval action can only address the symptoms and
not the causes of piracy, which are rooted in the
collapse of political authority in Somalia.
Nevertheless, the group heard that interna-
tional naval patrolling combined with defensive
measures on the part of merchant vessels had
signicantly disrupted and deterred pirati-
cal activities: in 2008, the success rate for pirate
aacks was approximately 30% for all aempted
boardings; by late 2009, the rate had been reduced
to 15%. However, only half of vessels aacked
successfully in recent months had adhered to
International Maritime Organisation (IMO)
guidelines.
Eorts to coordinate national maritime
contributions take the form of the Shared
Awareness and Deconiction (SHADE)
Commiee and UN-IMO contact groups.
Improved maritime situational awareness is
necessary: this will require beer intelligence-
sharing.
There was agreement in the group that, while
Somali piracy continues to pose a serious menace
to shipping, wider maritime security challenges
should not be ignored. These challenges include
tracking, smuggling and the spectre of mari-
time terrorism. Concern was expressed over the
vulnerability of submarine bre-optic cables to
disruption.
While there are weaknesses and aws in cur-
rent anti-piracy eorts, multinational naval forces
are engaged in an unprecedented level of diplo-
matic, military collaboration and coordination.
This cooperation may have wider consequences
in terms of building condence among the navies
of states that are not all formal allies or even secu-
rity partners, which could be useful in the future.
As one participant pointed out: You can surge
forces, but you cannot surge trust.
Break-out group : Piracy and Maritime Security
The group heard that the phenomenon of Non-
State Actors (NSAs) was of increasing importance
as such groups were proliferating, with greater
inter-action between them and implications for
relations between countries and within wider
regions. For example, concerns about insurgency
in Yemen could aect relations between Yemen
and Saudi Arabia and between Saudi Arabia and
Iran, which could in turn impinge upon regional
security. Such eects could be exacerbated if
NSAs were serving a foreign agenda.
In Lebanon, Hizbullah was the dominant
Shia party but had links with non-Shia groups,
and worked patiently to a long-term timescale
with wide political appeal. It had two ministers
in the new government and several supportive
MPs. Its new manifesto placed more emphasis
on its Lebanese context and underplayed its rela-
tionship with Iran. It possessed a strong military
arsenal including anti-ship missiles, with rumours
of anti-aircraft missiles. There was lile sign that
it would disarm, as required by UN resolutions.
In Pakistan, new NSAs had emerged in the
last ve years, with limited objectives but having
links with international NSAs, especially al-
Qaeda. A wave of terrorism had killed about
2,000 civilians and 2,250 military personnel and
had caused massive damage. It was suggested
that the actions of the United States, the NATO-
led forces in Afghanistan and possibly India
enhanced the diculty of dealing with NSAs in
Pakistan. Military operations in Swat and North
Waziristan had proceeded well: the return of
2.6 million displaced persons in 4 months was
without parallel. A distinction had to be made
between the Pakistani Taliban which started
by supporting the Afghan Taliban and were now
opposing the Pakistani state in opposition to what
they saw as a Western agenda and the Afghan
Taliban, a product of the anti-Soviet mujahadeen
which the West had helped create in the 1980s.
Alliances between them had allowed the Afghan
Taliban to gain sanctuary in Pakistan. For the time
being, Pakistans main focus was directed against
the Pakistani groups.
(lr): Dr Michael C. Williams, Under Secretary-General
and Special Coordinator or Lebanon, United Nations;
General Mansour Al Turki, Spokesperson, Interior
Ministry, Saudi Arabia; Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior
Fellow or Gul Security and Corresponding Director,
IISSMiddle East; Lieutenant-General Muhammed
Mustaa Khan, Chie o the General Sta, Pakistan;
Proessor Aboumohammad Asgarkhani, Proessor,
Department o International Relations, University o
Tehran
(lr): Vice-Admiral M.P. Muralidharan, Chie o
Personnel, Indian Navy; Lieutenant-General Desmond
Kuek Bak Chye; Chie o Deence Force, Ministry o
Deence, Singapore; Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director,
IISSAsia; Editor,Adelphis; Corresponding Director
or Military Inormation and Analysis, IISS; Admiral
Sir Mark Stanhope, First Sea Lord and Chie o NavalSta, Royal Navy, UK; Vice-Admiral William Gortney,
Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command;
Commander, US Fith Fleet
Break-out group : Non-State Actors in Regional Security
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
8/20
SoUTh ASIA PRogRAMME
8 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
The rd IISSNESA SouthAsia Conerence In Oman
The 3rd conference on Islam, Politics and Security was held in Muscat,
Oman, on 1416 December in association with the Near East South Asia
Centre for Strategic Studies (NESA). This took place amid some key secu -
rity concerns and challenges in the region. It followed US President Barack
Obamas announcement of a surge in troop levels in Afghanistan, accompa -
nied by a deadline for the withdrawal of forces by July 2011. A sharp rise in
terror aacks in Pakistan appeared to be the result of a major new oensive by
the Pakistani security forces against the Taliban in South Waziristan. India and
Pakistans bilateral peace dialogue is yet to resume, a year after the Mumbai
terror aack. Bangladesh faced several extremist and terror challenges with
links to the AfghanistanPakistan region.
It was against this backdrop that 60 senior ocials and inuential experts
from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan gathered to discuss the
causes and consequences of Islamic radicalism and extremism, and to con -
tribute to a policy-oriented national, regional and international dialogue to
counter extremism and terrorism in South Asia. A small number of UK, US,
French and IISS participants also aended. Discussions took place on an o-
the-record, informal basis.
Sessions included: Islamic Radicalism and Extremism in South Asia;
Perceptions of National Terrorist Threats; Countering Terrorism: National
Experiences; Bolstering Regional Cooperation; Role for Non-regional
Countries; and The Way Forward. In addition, a special session was held on
US and Coalition Operations in Afghanistan and the New US Strategy. The
IISS is preparing a policy-relevant brief which draws on these discussions, to
be distributed to all participants as well as senior ocials of South Asian and
other governments.
The conference drew together high-level diplomats from South Asia,
who were joined for the rst time by senior intelligence and security o-
cials. These included: Minister Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, adviser to
President Karzai on Home Security; Dr Davood Moradian, senior adviser
to the Foreign Minister (Afghanistan); and Mohebbur Rahman Fayez, of
the Embassy of Afghanistan in India (Afghanistan); Major-General Monzur
Ahmed, Director General, National Security Intelligence and Hassan Mahood
Khandker, of the Rapid Action Baalion (Bangladesh); Jayant Prasad, Indias
Ambassador to Afghanistan; Rana Banerji, former Special Secretary, Cabinet
Secretariat; Ambassador Yash Sinha, Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Iran), Ministry of External Aairs, and Tara Kartha, Director in the Joint
Intelligence Commiee, Cabinet Secretariat (India); and Major-General Rashad
Mahmood, Director General of Counter-terrorism, Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI); Brigadier-General Abid Mahmood, ISI; and Afrasiab Mehdi Hashmi,
Director General (South Asia), Ministry of Foreign Aairs (Pakistan).
Members of parliament from South Asia also participated. These included:
Fawzia Koo, Vice-President, Wolesi Jirga, Afghanistan; Manish Tewari,
Member of the Lok Sabha, India; and Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan, Member
of the National Assembly and former Chief Minister, North West Frontier
Province (NWFP), Pakistan. Senior participants from earlier IISS South Asia
conferences included: Field Marshal Lord Inge, former Chief of Defence Sta,
UK and Member of the Council, IISS; General Jehangir Karamat, former
Chief of Army Sta, Pakistan and Ambassador Farooq Sobhan, President,
Bangladesh Enterprise Institute and former Foreign Secretary.
This conference was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior
Fellow for South Asia, with the assistance of Rebecca Fishley, IISS Dialogues
& Asia Coordinator.
The IISS would like to thank Sultan Qaboos bin Said and Diwan of the
Royal Court for supporting this series of conferences.
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Major-General Monzur Ahmed, Dr John Chipman, and Major-
General Rashad Mahmood
Christopher Langton, Ambassador Jayant Prasad
Sir Hilary Synnott and Rana BanerjiAmbassador YK Sinha and Mohebbur Rahman Fayez Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
9/20
I ISS FocUS oN AFghANISTAN
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER |
General Stanley McChrystal
Adam Ward and Dr Liam Fox MP
Key Address:General Stanley McChrystalThe commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley
McChrystal, used a special address to the Institute on 1 October to fur-
ther spell out his case for sending more troops to ght the Taliban. Having
recently asked the White House for 40,000 reinforcements, Gen. McChrystal
explained why the situation in Afghanistan had deteriorated so badly and
why it was a bale worth pursuing. His speech reported and debated
around the world also called for a fundamental shift in the way the insur -
gency is tackled, giving more aention to winning hearts and minds. This
discussion was moderated by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and
Chief Executive, IISS. Watch the Speech and the Q&A Session and read
the speech at hp://www.iiss.org/recent-key-addresses/general-stanley-
mcchrystal-address/.
Dr Liam Fox MPOn 28 September 2009, Dr Liam Fox MP, Shadow Secretary of State for
Defence, spoke on Beyond the Smoke: Making Progress in Afghanistan. Dr
Fox outlined what diplomatic and military strategy a Conservative United
Kingdom government would pursue towards the country. He argued there
was a need for NATO and for member governments to more clearly dene
the objectives towards Afghanistan, puing security rst rather than longer-
term developmental or political goals. This address was chaired by Adam
Ward, Director of Studies, and can be viewed at the IISS website at hp://
www.iiss.org/recent-key-addresses/liam-fox-address/.
The View romthe GroundThe IISS continued to keep abreast of the situation
in Afghanistan and Pakistan through rst-hand
experience and accounts. The Institutes Senior
Fellow for Conict & Defence Diplomacy, Colonel
Christopher Langton, was in Kabul and Kandahar
from 1119 November, as part of a small delegation
invited by the UKs Ministry of Defence. The colo-
nel visited the International Security Assistance
Forces (ISAF) Regional Command (South). He was
involved in briengs on the military and civilian
dimensions of the Afghanistan campaign, eorts
to train the national army and police, the Afghan
economy and other issues.
IISS members at Arundel House heard an
Afghani perspective when Dr Davood Moradian, a
senior policy adviser to the countrys foreign min-
ister, spoke on 15 October about the necessity to
talk to the Taliban.
On 12 October, Professor Anatol Lieven, the Chair
of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at
Insights from the Afghan Field on 23 November;
Colonel Langton was a guest of the German
Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) at two
Berlin events on 89 December, rstly NATOs
Strategy in Afghanistan, and then Partners for
Stability Involving Neighbours in Afghanistans
Reconstruction Transatlantic Approaches, focus-
ing on the countrys narcotics problem. See www.
iiss.org for more details.
Kings College London, and a former IISS Senior
Fellow, gave his assessment of Pakistans counter-
insurgency campaigns, after spending several
weeks in summer interviewing locals in the cities of
Islamabad and Peshawar, and Swat and Buner agen-
cies in North West Frontier Province (NWFP).
In other Afghanistan discussions, Dr Antonio
Giustozzi from the London School of Economics
presented his book Decoding the New Taliban:
Proessor Anatol Lieven Dr Antonio Giustozzi
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
10/20
TRANSNATIoNAl ThREATS AND PolITIcAl RIS k / I ISS FocUS o N AFghANIS TAN
1 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
Discussion Meetings
on The Role of the New Obama Administration
and any Perceived Change in Policy Towards
Terrorism.
On 24 November, Nigel Inkster was invited
to the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom
in Shrivenham, to aend a symposium on
Understanding Islam in the 21st Century, where
he oered a Global Overview of Contemporary
Terrorist Activity.
The Transnational Threats and Political Risk
programme hosted a discussion meeting on 1
December with Major-General Mart de Kruif,
Former Commander Regional Command (South)
ISAF. The topic was: Strategic Patience, the Way to
Success in Afghanistan. Maj.-Gen. de Kruif gave a
short orientation on Regional Command (South),
after which he explained the current situation and
Initial Assessment COMISAF, discussing all the
Lines of Operation and his expectations on devel-
opments within the next 12 months. The event was
chaired by Nigel Inkster.
On 2 December, Nigel Inkster hosted Dr Nabeel
A. Khoury, Director of the Near East South Asia
Oce, Bureau of Political Analysis at the US State
Department. Dr Khoury addressed IISS members
on Crisis in Yemen: Immediate and Long-term
Challenges.
lr Nigel Inkster, Dr Peter Neumann, Sir Hilary Synnott, Henry Hogger and Robert Whalley Major-General Mart de Krui Dr Nabeel A. Khour y
Henry Hogger, of Gallup, was the key speaker at a
discussion meeting on Muslim West Facts: Islam
speaks for itself: Results of The Gallup World
Poll on 5 October. The presentation, chaired by
Sir Hilary Synno, Consulting Senior Fellow
at the IISS, was followed by commentary from:
Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats
and Political Risk; Robert Whalley, Consulting
Senior Fellow at the IISS; and Dr Peter Neumann,
Director of the International Centre for the Study
of Radicalisation and Political Violence at Kings
College, London.
On 78 October, Nigel Inkster aended a con-
ference in Brussels on Climate Change & Security
at Copenhagen II The Contribution of the Global
Security Community to Success, where he was
part of a panel addressing Atlantic Relations in
2009. The event was organised by the Institute
for Environmental Security in partnership with a
number of organisations looking at environmental
issues.
Colonel Christopher Langton, Senior Fellow
for Conict and Defence Diplomacy, was invited
to the rst Berlin Roundtable on Diplomacy, an
event which grew out of cooperation between
the German Federal Foreign Oce and the Erfurt
School of Public Policy. The theme of the round-
table, which took place from 58 October, was
conict resolution in the South Caucasus. Col.
Langton delivered an introductory presentation on
The Analysis of the Sources of Conict.
Research Analyst Virginia Comolli spoke at a
workshop organised by Europol in The Hague.
Virginia addressed the participants at the event,
held on 2021 October, on the strategic relations
between energy supply and demand.
On 22 October, the IISS hosted Ilan Berman,
Vice-President for Policy at the American
Foreign Policy Council, for a discussion meet-
ing around his book Winning the Long War:
Retaking the Ofensive against Radical Islam. The
meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, Director
of Studies.
Nigel Inkster was invited to address a global
security seminar on the reporting of terrorism
and security, aimed at journalists from developed
and developing countries. At the event, organised
by the ThomsonReuters Foundation, Nigel spoke
about the modern age of terrorism and the role
of intelligence agencies. The seminar was held in
Oxford from 1617 November.
Nigel delivered a keynote address at the
Counter Terrorism and Security conference in
London on 18 November. He gave a presentation
Prolieration RoundtableNiu Qiang, Secretary-General of the Chinese Peoples Association for Peace and Disarmament
(CPAPD) and Deputy President of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA),
led a Chinese delegation aending a half-day expert roundtable, hosted by the Transnational
Threats and Political Risk programme and Saferworld. Academic experts and government ocials
from both China and Europe participated in the discussion on 25 November. Speakers included
representatives from the North Institute of Science and Technology Information and the China
Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). The afternoon began with a discus -
sion on illicit conventional arms trade, touching on the current arms trade regime and Chinese
perception of it. The second session addressed the threat posed by illicit conventional arms trade
to global security.
lr Dr Owen Greene, Bradord University, and Dr Guo
Xiaobing, China Institute o Contemporary International
Relations
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
11/20
NoN-PRolIFERATIoN AND DISARMAMENT PRogRAMME
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 11
included a broad range of government ocials and academic experts from
both China and the UK. The workshop formed a central component of a cur-
rent IISS project examining Chinese perspectives and strategic thinking about
nuclear security in the context of the global struggle to prevent nuclear or
radiological terrorism. The discussion generated numerous suggestions for
possible UKChina cooperation on nuclear security issues, some of which will
be explored further in future IISS publications. The workshop was made pos-
sible through the support of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Oce.
On 27 November, IISS hosted the seventh workshop under its project on
Fostering International Dialogue on Korean Security. The workshop featured
presentations by Huh Chul, Ambassador for Korean Peninsula Peace Regime
from the Republic of Korea; So Ki Sok, senior researcher at the Institute for
Disarmament and Peace in Pyongyang; Ja Song Nam, DPRK Ambassador to
the UK; Simon Manley, Director of Defence and Strategic Threats, FCO. The
40 participants from the two Koreas, Japan, China, Russia, US, UK and other
European states assessed Peninsula political dynamics, North Korean rela-
tions with its key negotiating partners, the nuclear and missile programmes in
North Korea, and prospects for engagement and capacity building, including
development of future contacts and areas of cooperation.
Participants at IISSCIIS/CACDA workshop on Perspectives on Nuclear and Radiological
Security
Mark Fitzpatrick, Director o the Non-Prolieration and Disarmament Programme
Meetings, Discussions andWorkshops
On 7 October, Mark Fipatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and
Disarmament Programme, led an IISS discussion meeting on Assessing
Iranian Nuclear Developments, chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor, Survival, and
IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Aairs. Fipatrick
noted that the recent revelation of a new enrichment facility at Qom under-
scored intelligence agency and internal IAEA assessments about Iranian work
on weapons development. Yet he argued that a tentative agreement reached
on 1 October during talks in Geneva in which Iran would export the bulk of
its stockpile of enriched uranium in exchange for fuel for its research reactor
would if implemented be a condence-building measure and oer a pos -
sible path to a long-term solution.
On 20 November 2009, the IISS held a one-day workshop in Beijing on
Perspectives on Nuclear and Radiological Security, in collaboration with
the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), and the China Arms
Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA). The workshop participants
IN BRIEF
Mark Fitzpatrick
Mark Fitzpatrick, Director o the IISS Non-Prolieration
and Disarmament Programme, addressed a ple-
nary session o the IISS Global Strategic Review
on 12 September in a speech entitled Nuclear
Disarmament and Non-Prolieration: Strengthening
the Synergy. On 16 September, he joined a round-
table discussion at 10 Downing Street led by the
Prime Minister on how the UK can best shape the
nuclear debate and on 15 October he participated in
a brieng on non-prolieration to newly appointed
Minister o State or Foreign and Commonwealth
Aairs Ivan Lewis. These topics also eatured in his 29
October keynote speech on Successes and Failure o
NPT or World without NPT? at a Webster University
seminar in Vienna on nuclear non-prolieration. He
also gave a presentation on covert nuclear trade.
On 3 December, he was asked to oer a US perspec-
tive at a conerence co-hosted by the Royal UnitedServices Institute on Towards Zero: Britains role in
urthering nuclear non-prolieration and multilateral
approaches to disarmament.
Mark presented the latest IISS strategic dossier
on Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and
Australasia at a 28 September book launch at Arundel
House. From 818 November, he toured ve capitals
in Southeast Asia to meet with government ocials
and academics to discuss issues highlighted in the
dossier. The tour culminated with a book launch
at the Singapore International Energy Week. On 7
December, he drew rom the dossier or a presenta-
tion in Hanoi at a meeting o the Council or Security
Cooperation in the Asia Pacic (CSCAP) Study Group
on Countering the Prolieration o Weapons o Mass
Destruction in the Asia Pacic. On 9 December, also
in Hanoi, he spoke on Prolieration Networks and
Export Controls at a meeting o the CSCAP Export
Control Experts Group.
This autumn Mark also continued to ocus atten-
tion on the Iranian nuclear issue. He spoke on this
subject on 17 September at a conerence hosted by
the Legatum Institute and the Henry Jackson Society;on 7 October, at an IISS discussion meeting keyed to
the tentative agreement reached in Geneva the previ-
ous week on removing Iranian uranium in exchange
or research reactor uel; and on 15 December at a
Wilton Park conerence on nuclear non-prolieration
and the 2010 NPT review. On 1 October in Brussels,
he spoke about Iran, North Korea and the Challenge
o Non-Prolieration as the eatured speaker at a
lunchtime debate organised by the External Relations
Directorate o the European Commission.
On 29 September, Mark chaired a discussion
meeting with US Deputy Assistant Secretary o
Deense or European and NATO Policy James J.
Townsend Jr on the Obama administrations mis-
sile-deence policy. At Wilton Park on 22 October,
he kicked o a conerence on New Approaches
to Penalising Nuclear Smuggling. In Beijing on 20
November, Mark co-chaired a BritishChinese work-
shop on Perspectives on Nuclear and Radiological
Security. On 21 November he gave a presentation to
a diplomatic group assembled at the Dutch Embassy
in Beijing on Chinas role in global and regional
non-prolieration and arms control issues. On 27November, he chaired the 7th annual IISS work-
shop at Arundel House on Fostering International
Dialogue on Korean Security.
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
12/20
DIScUSSIoN MEETINgS / book lAUNchES
1 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
Adelphi Book LaunchMats Berdal, Professor of Security
and Development, Kings College
London, launched his new Adelphi
Book Building Peace After War.
Intervention by outside actors, aimed
at building sustainable peace within
societies ravaged by war, has been a
striking feature of the post-Cold War
era. But, at a time when more peace-
keepers are deployed around the
world than at any other point in his-
tory, is the international will for these
missions beginning to wane? And
how far can the systems for planning
and deploying peacebuilding missions full the increasingly complex tasks
set for them? In his book published under the IISS Adelphi series, Mats Berdal,
Consulting Senior Fellow at the IISS, addresses these and other crucial ques -
tions. The meeting on 16 November was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Director
of Editorial; Editor of Strategic Survey; Editor of Strategic Comments , IISS. For
more information visit hp://www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi-papers/adel-
phi-papers-2009/building-peace-after-war/.
Discussion MeetingOn 2 November, Dr Alon Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow and Middle Eastern Studies Project Director, World
Policy Institute, spoke on Is the Arab Peace Initiative the Answer to Resolving the Middle East Conict?.
Dr Ben-Meir presented on the Arab Peace Initiative and its potential to jump-start the PalestinianIsraeli
peace process. The Initiative provides a comprehensive formula for peace, and the means to solve the
political conundrum between Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and Israel. While it has done lile to tide
ArabIsraeli conict since its introduction in 2002, and its subsequent reintroduction in 2007, Dr Ben-
Meir insisted the Initiative is the key to opening dialogue between the 22 Arab states and Israel. He also
stressed the importance of Arab leaders actively promoting the document and the Obama administra-
tions endorsement in drawing Israel towards a two-state solution. This meeting was chaired by Dr Toby
Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS.
Mats Berdal
Adam Ward and David Miliband
Dr Alon Ben-Meir
Key AddressThe most pro-European speech by a British foreign secretary that was how
one UK national newspaper described a keynote address by David Miliband
at the IISS on 26 October, and most commentators seemed to agree. The
Foreign Secretary conceded the European Union had weaknesses, some of
which could be resolved by the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty (which
subsequently happened on 1 December). However, in his speech entitled A
Strong Britain in a Strong Europe, he forcefully made the case that European
membership was as much in Britains interest as it was in the EUs.
Insisting that Britain needed the weight of the EU to preserve and advance
its values and interests in the modern world, he said: It is not in my judgment
possible to argue for a strong British global role without a strong commitment
to the EU.
This meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch
the speech and the Q&A session and read the speech at hp://www.iiss.org/
events-calendar/2009-events-archive/october-2009/key-address-the-rt-hon-
david-miliband-mp/.
Analysing HowTerrorism Ends
The IISS hosted an expert round-
table on 4 December to discuss
How Terrorism Ends: Understanding
the Decline and Demise of Terrorist
Campaigns , the latest publication by
Dr Audrey Kurth Cronin, Professor
of Strategy at the US National War
College in Washington DC. The dis-
cussion was structured around several
controversial issues covered in the
book. First was the debate on decapi-
tation strategy and what approach
should be adopted towards captured
leaders. Participants also talked about
negotiations as a way of ending con-
icts between terrorists and the state,
and as a tool for managing conict. The roundtable was followed by an open
discussion meeting in the afternoon with Dr Cronin, chaired by Adam Ward,
Director of Studies at the IISS.
Dr Audrey Kurth Cronin
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
13/20
DIScUSSIoN MEETINgS
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 13
IISS Workshop MajorPower Dynamics in AsiaThe IISS hosted a workshop in Washington DC on 1213 November explor-
ing the issue of Major Power Dynamics in Asia: Implications for Small and
Medium-sized Powers. The workshop was very kindly supported by the
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundations Asia Security Initiative
(ASI).
Participants discussed the foreign and defence postures adopted by
smaller states within Asias multi-polar order. Some have aempted to inu-
ence the regional balance by actively strengthening their security relations
with the United States, or have at least acquiesced in US eorts to reinforce
its regional partnerships. Many have displayed interest in a regional secu-
rity architecture to protect their interests amid the rise of China and India.
These same states have also, however, continued to build their military capa-
bilities, increasing defence spending in proportion to their economic success.
Meanwhile Russias diplomacy points to the possibility of a more prominent
and assertive role in Asias geopolitics.
The workshop examined the prospect of future conict between smaller
and medium powers in Asia, and assessed how they might t into the emerg-
ing strategic landscape.
For more information see hp://www.iiss.org/about-us/oces/
washington/iiss-us-events/iiss-us-workshop-major-power-dynamics-in-asia-
implications-for-small-and-medium-sized-powers/.
The Economics oConfict ResolutionBuilding on a successful inaugural meeting in Washington DC in May
and two dedicated break-out group meetings at Septembers Global
Strategic Review conference in Geneva, the IISS convened the second
roundtable meeting of its Economics and Conict Resolution Programme
in London on 30 September 2009. Under the theme Distinctive
Challenges and Eective Solutions, the Institute, with the support of
the Portland Trust, brought together international experts in economics,
security and development to pool their work on aspects of conict and
its resolution and begin to explore the interdependencies between their
elds.
For further information see the IISS website hp://www.iiss.org/
programmes/conflict/the-economics-of-conflict-resolution-distinctive-
challenges-and-eective-solutions/.
Participants at the workshop
IN BRIEF
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow or South Asia, spoke in a panel discus-
sion in the House o Lords on 19 October on Post-war in Sri Lanka: Peace and
Reconciliation A Way Forward. On 23 October, he lectured on The Future o
Indias Maritime Security at the Delegation o Strategic Aairs o the French
Ministry o Deence in Paris. He delivered his annual lecture to the Oxord
University Foreign Service Programme at Queen Elizabeth House, Oxord, on
South Asia Regional Security Concerns on 30 November. On 16 October he
chaired a talk on India and China: Competition rather than Cooperation? by
prominent Indian journalist, author and politician Dr Arun Shourie MP.
Rahul travelled to New Delhi in October and December 2009 to call on the
National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, Chie o Naval Sta Admiral NirmalVerma, Chie o the Integrated Service Command Air Marshal S.C. Mukul, the Chie
o the Deence Intelligence Agency and other senior ocials o the Ministries o
External Aairs and Deence, and the National Security Council Secretariat. He
also gave an inormal brieng to the Director General and senior ocers o the
recently established National Investigation Agency (NIA). On 1113 December he
travelled to Bahrain to attend the 6th IISS Manama Dialogue. He was in Muscat,
Oman, rom 1318 December, where he chaired a session o the 3rd IISS South
Asia Conerence on Islam, Politics and Security, which he organised with the sup-
port o Rebecca Fishley, IISS Dialogues & Asia Coordinator.
Adam Ward
In September, Adam Ward, the Institutes Director o Studies, hosted UK Shadow
Deence Secretary Dr Liam Fox MP or a discussion on the confict in Aghanistan. InOctober he arranged or ISAF Commander General Stanley McChrystal to address
the IISS on the same subject. Later in October he convened and spoke at an IISS work-
shop on the international security implications o Chinas rise, organised or the UK
Ministry o Deence with representation rom across Whitehall. In mid October he
was in Singapore to speak at a conerence on Asias Regional Security Architecture,
organised by the IISS in tandem with the Institute or Southeast Asian Studies. Later
that month he hosted UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband or a major address at
Arundel House on how the Lisbon Treatys ratication might aect the European
Unions role in world aairs. In mid November, Adam Ward was in Washington,
where he convened and chaired a workshop on Major Power Dynamics in Asia.
He next travelled to Tblisi, Georgia, with Senior Fellow or Russia and Eurasia Oksana
Antonenko, to prepare the ground or a major new IISS project on security in the
Southern Caucasus. This was also the subject o a conerence convened by the IISS
in Baku, Azerbaijan, later in November, in partnership with the Centre o Strategic
Studies under the President o Azerbaijan a meeting which Adam Ward addressed
and co-chaired. In mid December, he travelled to Bahrain or the IISS ManamaDialogue and then on to Muscat, Oman, or a high-level workshop on Political Islam
in South Asia, convened under the auspices o the IISS South Asia Programme.
Robert Whalley
Robert Whalley, Consulting Senior Fellow, has been working with Bastian
Giegerich and Virginia Comolli on the European Union FORESEC project, which
is looking at threats to European security over the next ve years. He prepared
the IISS contribution on critical national inrastructure or the project seminar in
Stockholm. He has also been working with the Swedish EU Presidency investi-
gating uture directions or EU security ollowing the ratication o the Lisbon
Treaty, and presenting to a Swedish Presidency seminar in Brussels in September.
Robert Whalley and Nigel Inkster attended the European Expert Network (EeNET)
conerence in Vienna in October, where he chaired a session on the impact omajor global trends in violent extremism. In November he chaired a conerence
on counter-terrorism and security arranged by the SPG Media Group, at which
Nigel Inkster gave the keynote address.
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
14/20
RUSSIAEURASIA PRogRAMME
14 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
Security and Developmentin the South Caucasus
An International Conference was hosted by IISS and the Centre for Strategic
Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, in Baku on 20 November. Speakers
included experts from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, Turkey and Iran, as well
as the US and Europe. The conference addressed the challenges posed by pro -
tracted regional conicts, the implications for regional stability and security of
last years war between Georgia and Russia, prospects for the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conict and for completing the normalisation of Turkish
Armenian relations, EU policies towards the South Caucasus and regional
energy-security dilemmas. It opened with remarks from Elnur Aslanov, of
Azerbaijans Presidential Administration, and from the Deputy Speaker of the
Parliament of Azerbaijan Dr Ziyafat Asgerov. IISS Senior Fellow for Russia
and Eurasia Oksana Antonenko gave a presentation on the prospects for reso-
lution in protracted regional conicts.
The Collective SecurityTreaty Organisation
On 8 December 2009, Colonel General
Nikolai Bordyuzha, Secretary-
General of the Collective Security
Treaty Organisation, spoke about
the organisations history, its cur-
rent institutional composition and
the evolution of its defence and
crisis-response capabilities. He also
discussed areas in which it proposes
to establish cooperation with NATO,
including eorts to counter drug
tracking from Central Asia, illegal
migration, border security, and the
training of Afghan security forces and the strengthening of governance in
Afghanistan. After the presentation, the discussion focused on the role and
interests of dierent CSTO members and their impact on multilateral coopera-
tion within CSTO. Questions were raised about security challenges in Central
Asia and possible impacts of instability in Afghanistan on the region of CSTO
activity. This discussion was chaired by Oksana Antonenko.
ArmenianTurkish Relations
Tigran Mkrtchyan spoke on Normalising ArmenianTurkish Relations on
23 November. Mr Mkrtchyan, the European Stability Initiatives analyst in
Armenia, described the troubled history of TurkishArmenian relations and
analysed the driving forces behind the current rapprochement. He described
the key elements of the protocols on normalising bilateral relations which
were signed in October 2009, and outlined obstacles to ratication and imple -
mentation. The meeting was chaired by Oksana Antonenko.
Russias ProspectsOn 23 October, Oksana Antonenko, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia;
Timothy Colton, Feldberg Professor of Government at Harvard University and
Director of the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies; David Hearst,
foreign leader writer for The Guardian; and John Peet, Europe Editor for The
Economist discussed the key themes emerging from this years Valdai Club
programme. As part of this annual series of meetings organised by Russian
information agency RIA Novosti, they spoke with President Dmitry Medvedev,
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, First Deputy
Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, and presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich, as
well as the heads of Gazprom and Rosneft. The IISS meeting assessed what
came out of these discussions in Russia, including modernisation proposed by
President Medvedev, foreign policy, military reform and energy policy.
USRussianRelationsOn 5 November, Dr Igor Yurgens,
Chairman of the Russian Institute of
Contemporary Development, spoke
on Reseing USRussian Relations.
Dr Yurgens, who recently joined the
IISS Advisory Council, addressed the
history of USRussian relations, the
rationale behind the current aempt
to transform bilateral relations,
Russias key objectives for the reset, and the potential barriers to achieving
partnership in areas of common concern. The meeting was chaired by Oksana
Antonenko.
Tigran Mkrtchyan and Oksana Antonenko
The conerence room
Nikolai Bordyuzha
Dr Igor Yurgens
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
15/20
RUSSIAEURASIA PRogRAMME / clIMATE chANgE AND SEcURITy
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 15
chairman of the Foreign Aairs Commiee of
the State Duma; Sergei Karaganov, Chairman of
the Board of the Council on Foreign and Defence
Policy; Nikolai Bordyuzha, Secretary-General
of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation;
Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Institute for
Contemporary Development; Fyodor Lukyanov,
Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Afairs; and
Sergei Vykhokhulev of RIA Novosti.
More than 70 participants from the UK, the
US and Europe were also present. The opening
dinner address was delivered by Marc Perrin de
Brichambaut, OSCE Secretary-General, who out-
lined the progress made in discussions of President
Medvedevs proposals, and the OSCEs role as the
platform for such discussions under the Corfu pro-
cess. Baroness Taylor of Bolton, of the UK Ministry
of Defence opened the conference with a speech
about the key European security challenges.
Alexander Grushko oered a Russian perspective
on the proposed draft treaty.
Three issues dominated the conference: threats,
risks and challenges for Euro-Atlantic security; the
role and eectiveness of existing institutions; and
how to develop a comprehensive Euro-Atlantic
security architecture with Russia.
Conerence on the New EuropeanSecurity Treaty
(lr): Alexander Grushko, Deputy Foreign Minister o the Russian Federation; Oksana Antonenko, IISS Senior Fellow
or Russia and Eurasia; Baroness Taylor o Bolton, Minister or International Deence and Security, UK; and Sergei
Karaganov, Chairman o the Board o the Council on Foreign and Deence Policy
On 89 December, the IISS hosted a major inter-
national meeting entitled Towards a New
European Security Architecture. It followed
President Dmitry Medvedevs proposals on the
draft European Security Treaty, unveiled days
before the Athens OSCE Ministerial Council on
12 December. The conference was organised
jointly by the IISS, Valdai Discussion Club, RIA
Novosti and the Council on Foreign and Defence
Policy, a forum for the discussion of international
issues.
It brought together high-level Russian o-
cials and experts, including: Alexander Grushko,
Deputy Foreign Minister; Konstantin Kosachev,
Climate Change, Foodand Security
probability, high impact events such as famine have a serious impact on
security.
Participants discussed policies that will enhance food security and envi-
ronmental resilience and combat climate change. These include: expanding
no-till farming to allow plants to lter more carbon out of the atmosphere,
increasing investment in agricultural research, building rural roads, and plan-
ning for natural disasters. They also called for security and defence agencies to
tackle climate change together, since it transcends borders and agency remits.
The event, funded by the European Commission, took place at Arundel House
in London.
Security, Climate Changeand Uncertainty:Rethinking Strategic RiskOn 10 December, the IISSUS oce held the roundtable discussion Security,
Climate Change and Uncertainty: Rethinking Strategic Risk.
Speaking at the event were David Robson and Carol Dumaine, Deputy
Director for energy and environmental security within the US Department of
Energy. The event was held under Chatham House Rules.
Discussion focused on the need to coordinate eorts to manage risk, warn -
ing that no country in the global economy can be fully protected from the
eects of climate change, resource scarcity and population growth unless
all are protected. Governments should therefore work across boundaries to
foster trust, collaboration and communication to counter the threat to their
systems and infrastructure.
The Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security, an IISS pro -
gramme that looks at long-term planning for a warming climate, held a
workshop on 10 November with more than 25 international representatives
from government agencies, research and academic institutions, and NGOs.
This came as defence and intelligence agencies have begun to turn their aen -
tion towards the intersecting concerns of climate change and food security.
Dr Gerald Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI) warned of increasing volatility as productive arable land zones with
reliable rainfall paerns shift, thereby cuing the worlds overall productive
capacity. Quantifying and predicting these factors will be a dicult task.
David Robson, head of energy and environmental foresight for the Scoish
Government, and Tom Burke, a Founding Director of E3G, urged policy -
makers not to focus solely on climate model predictions, stressing that low
David Robson Dr Gerald Nelson
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
16/20
I ISSASIA
16 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
Non-prolierationSeminar
Banning That Bomb: Thinking about Nuclear Non-
Proliferation and Disarmament was the subject up
for discussion at an 8 September IISSAsia semi-
nar, sponsored by the Australian Department of
Defence. Dr Ron Huisken spoke about the renewed
impetus for a world without nuclear weapons,
assessing the factors that will aect disarmament
and discussing why the process continues to meet
with scepticism and resistance.
Workshop on the Asia-Pacic Regional SecurityArchitectureMore than 40 participants from East and Southeast Asia, as well as representa-
tives from the United States and Australia, aended a workshop on 1516
October intended to take stock of the evolving regional security architecture
in the Asia-Pacic region. Leading experts on the regions security institutions
and partnerships were present for the one-and-a-half-day event convened
by IISSAsia in collaboration with Singapores Institute of Southeast Asian
Studies (ISEAS). They assessed recent developments in multilateral regional
institutions involved in security dialogue and other forms of security coop-
eration. These include the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
and ASEAN-anchored forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the
East Asian Summit, but also diverse non-ASEAN forums such as the IISS
Shangri-La Dialogue, Six-Party Talks on North Koreas nuclear programme,
and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The workshop also investigated
the part played in the regional security architecture by bilateral security rela-
tionships. Among the questions it addressed were: What roles will ASEAN
and its related forums play in promoting security and stability in the Asia-
Pacic in the future? How might a changing conguration of major power
inuences aect bilateral security relations and their contribution to the
regional security architecture? What are the merits of alternative visions
such as Australian Prime Minister Rudds Asia-Pacic Community? Dr Tim
Huxley, Executive Director of IISSAsia, and Ambassador K. Kesavapany,
Director of ISEAS, made opening remarks. At the end of the rst day, Dr
Balaji Sadasivan, Singapores Senior Minister of State for Foreign Aairs,
Prince Norodom SirivudhPrince Norodom Sirivudh, the
Supreme Privy Counsellor to the
King of Cambodia, gave a per-
sonal speech at an IISSAsia event
on The Future of Cambodia on
30 November. The former Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister of
Foreign Aairs spoke eloquently
about his countrys domestic and
international challenges, highlight-
ing the persistent problem of rural
poverty, the drain of resources
into over-sized bureaucracy and
security sectors, and the need for
greater governmental transparency
and political reform. The event, held at the Raes Hotel, formed part of the IISSAsia seminar series, spon-
sored by the Australian Department of Defence. The audience included Singapore-based ambassadors and
high commissioners as well as IISS members. The Prince also discussed the challenges arising out of climate
change and the upstream damming of the Mekong River. On foreign policy, he discussed Cambodias no
enemies aitude towards the major powers. He stressed that greater transparency with regard to Beijings
military programmes would be welcome, and went on to tackle the severe deterioration in bilateral rela -
tions with neighbouring Thailand since 2008, highlighting the role of second-track institutions in keeping
open channels of communication between Phnom Penh and Bangkok.
Dr Ron Huisken, Senior Fellow, Strategic and Deence
Studies Centre, Australian National University
Regional Security Architecture workshop, session The Six-Party Talks, SCO and
Shangri-La Dialogue (l to r): Go Ito, Meiji University; Wang Dong, Peking University; Tim
Huxley, IISSAsia Executive Director; and Adam Ward, IISS Director o Studies
Participants (l to r): Dr Sheng Lijun, Lee Kuan Yew School o Public Policy, National
University o Singapore; Dr Tan See Seng, S. Rajaratnam School o International Studies,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Dr Malcolm Cook, Lowy Institute, Sydney
Prince Norodom Sirivudh and Dr Tim Huxley
launched former ASEAN Secretary-General Rodolfo Severinos new book on
the ASEAN Regional Forum. IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward and ISEAS
Deputy Director Chin Kin Wah provided closing comments.
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
17/20
I ISSASIA/DEFENcE ANAlySIS
IISS NEwS DEcEMbER | 17
The Brazilian National DeenceStrategyOn 21 October, Lieutenant-General
Sergio Westphalen Etchegoyen,
Special Military Adviser to the
Brazilian Secretary of State for
Defence and Head of the National
Defence Strategy Implementation
Centre, spoke on The Brazilian
National Defence Strategy. Lt-Gen.
Etchegoyen described the factors
that prompted Brazil to produce
the strategy, its main points, and
current implementation including
the developing posture of Brazils
armed forces. This discussion was
chaired by James Hacke, Editor of
The Military Balance and Head of the
Defence Analysis Department.
Seminar on the TrilateralStrategic DialogueOn 26 October, Sheldon Simon, Professor of Political Science at Arizona State University, spoke on
The Trilateral Strategic Dialogue and its Relevance for Southeast Asia in the IISSAsia seminar
series. Since 2005, Japan, Australia and the United States have been engaged in a three-way exer-
cise designed to bring Americas closest Asia-Pacic allies together as strategic partners. Professor
Simon examined the signicance of this strategic hub, and discussed Southeast Asian states con-
cern that it could detract from other regional security arrangements, notably the ASEAN Regional
Forum.
Deence AnalysisGroup Captain Ian Shields, Assistant Head of Air
& Space Development at the Ministry of Defences
Concepts & Doctrine Centre, spoke on The Future
Air and Space Operational Concept as part of the
IISS Defence Analysis Forum on 7 October. Gp
Capt. Shields discussed the concepts analysis of
how air and space assets might be organised to
respond to future threats. He also noted how the
concept aims to judge when emergent technologies
might enter front-line service and the impact they
will have. The meeting was chaired by Andrew
Brookes, Aerospace Analyst.
IN BRIEF: Defence Analysis
James Hackett Editor o The Military Balance and
Head o the Deence Analysis Department, chaired
a roundtable meeting or Lt-Gen. Eduardo Villas
Boas, Deputy Chie o Sta o the Brazilian Army,
on 12 October. Gen Villas Boas met a number o IISSsta and discussed a range o security issues con-
cerning Brazil. In December, James attended the
Manama Dialogue with Jason Alderwick, Maritime
Analyst, who maintains his close liaison with UK
and international maritime stas. On 14 October,
Andrew Brookes, Aerospace Analyst and Nigel
Adderley, Ground Forces Analyst, participated in
a roundtable meeting with a delegation rom the
Korean National Deence University, which waschaired by Alexander Nicoll, Director o Editorial.
Andrew Brookes has become Director o the Air
League ater serving the IISS or 11 years.
Group Captain Ian Shields
Proessor Sheldon Simon
Lieutenant General Sergio Westphalen Etchegoyen
IN BRIEF
IISSAsia
Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director o IISSAsia,
was in Berlin at the end o October or the Berlin
Conerence on Asian Security 2009, where he
spoke on condence-building and confict resolu-tion in Southeast Asia. In mid November, he was
in Washington DC or the IISS workshop on Major
Power Dynamics in Asia: Implications or Small and
Medium-sized Powers. In early December, he took
part in the Australian governments conerence in
Sydney, to discuss its proposal or an Asia-Pacic
community.
With eect rom 1 November Sarah Raine
became a Research Fellow or Chinese Foreign and
Security Policy. Sarah will continue to be basedat IISSAsia in Singapore but, with this change in
title, she will be an asset to be drawn into cross-
IISS research initiatives, and in that spirit will visit
Arundel House rom time to time. Meanwhile,
she has been continuing her research activities in
the region. In early November she visited Beijing,
speaking at a workshop on ChinaUS Grand
Strategy hosted by Peking Universitys Center or
International and Strategic Studies. Later in the
month, she was in Hanoi speaking at a conerenceon sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea,
organised by the Diplomatic Academy o Vietnams
Ministry o Foreign Aairs and the Vietnam Lawyers
Association.
-
8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue
18/20
EURoPEAN SEcURITy
18 | DEcEMbER IISS NEwS
European SecurityForesightOn 28 September, the IISS and its project partners organised a day-long
workshop examining the interaction between technological development
in the security eld and its societal and ethical implications. The workshop
was hosted by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) in Stockholm.
The event brought together some 50 experts from academia, government, the
armed forces and the private sector. It formed part of a European Commission-
funded project on future security trends for Europe (FORESEC). The specic
objectives of the workshop were to identify interdisciplinary research needs
in the area of security technology and policy and to identify measures that
enable security innovation to benet from collaboration with social science.
The workshop discussions focused on the themes explosives; chemical and
biological materials; information systems; border security; behavioural
sciences; and critical infrastructure. The results of the workshop fed into the
FORESEC Final Report entitled Cooperation in the Context of Complexity
which was briefed to European Commission ocials and other members
of the academic and policymaking community in Brussels on 9 November,
during a day-long FORESEC conference. The conference was addressed by the
2008 Nobel Peace laureate Mari Ahtisaari, who spoke about Europes role in
supporting global peace and stability. The conference was aended by some
75 experts and ocials and analysed how Europe could and should adapt to
global changes in the security environment before developing suggestions of
how to employ foresight methods in foreign-policy decision-making.
Visit o the Spanish HighDeence Studies College
On 11 November members and faculty of the 43rd Spanish National Defence
Course visited the IISS for briengs on European security issues. Dr Bastian
Giegerich, Research Fellow, European Security, IISS, spoke to the group on
the question of NATOEU cooperation for crisis-management operations.
Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS, ana-
lysed the tasks both the EU and NATO would have to tackle to deal with the
security implications of climate change and address the security challenges
posed by international terrorism and piracy. Alex Nicoll, Director of Editorial;
Editor of Strategic Survey; Editor of Strategic Comments , IISS, briefed on the
consequences of the economic and nancial crisis on defence cooperation in
Europe. The presentations were followed by an hour-long discussion with the
course participants.
Workshop: British andGerman Perspectives onNATOs Strategic ConceptOn 2627 November, the IISS, with the support of NATOs Public Diplomacy
Division, organised a workshop to compare British and German perspec-
tives on NATOs strategic concept due to be unveiled in 2010. While there is
a consensus among allies that a new concept is necessary to reect the chang -
ing international environment and NATOs activities, it seems as if agreement
on fundamental questions might still be lacking as several dividing lines have
emerged. Some Alliance members think of the new strategic concept mostly
as an eort of consolidation after successive rounds of enlargement, whereas
others favour a more radical rethinking of the old concept. In part, this discus-
sion reects dierent visions for NATOs position in the world: should NATO
come home and re-focus on the defence and security of allied territory, or seek to
expand its international footprint even more? Building consensus among allies
on such key issues is a central condition for a strong and meaningful strategic
concept that can serve as a robust guide for the Alliance in the times to come. To
further this goal, the workshop brought together some 30 experts and policy-
makers including a delegation from the German Institute for International and
Security Aairs (SWP). The workshop participants debated the dierent and
competing needs the new strategic concept would have to address, particularly
in light of diverging denitions of what allies see as the main purpose of NATO
today. The event saw a spirited debate on the roles NATO should take on vis--
vis security challenges such as climate change, piracy and cyberspace and also
on the question of how NATO should engage with Russia.
IN BRIEF: Dr Bastian Giegerich
Dr Bastian Giegerich, Research Fellow, European Security, visited Sweden rom
2429 September to speak on Challenges or European Security 2020 at a
conerence organised by the Riksbankens Jubileumsond and the University
o Gothenburg,