Incident & Resource Management D.H.S. Workshop on Emergency Management:Incident, Resource, and Supply Chain Management

Captain Larry Collins, Los Angeles County Fire Department

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz,Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle,Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein

Circular 1324Jointly published asCalifornia Geological Survey Special Report 207

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A StoryThat Southern Californians Are Writing

“What If” Became the Largest Earthquake Exercise in

U.S. History (Over 5 MillionPeople in 2008, Nearly 7

Million in 2009)

7.8 (2009) Shakeout 2009

Tabletop Booklet

L.A. County Fire Department

October 15, 16, and 18, 2009

A PredictableFuture Catastrophe:7.8 San Andreas FaultEarthquake

Bridging the Gap Between ScienceAnd Emergency Responders

Mud & Debris Flows:Planning & EmergencyResponse Considerations

TragedyBegets Tragedy:The StationFire(July/August 2009)

A History Lesson In Our Own Back Yard

New Years Day Flood, 1934:More Than 100 Dead (Some Never Found)

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2009

The U.S. Geological Survey today issued a grim forecast for foothill communities hit by the Station fire, saying huge mudslides and debris flows are

highly likely during the winter rainy season.Scientists have been spending the last few weeks studying terrain destroyed by the largest fire in Los Angeles County history to determine which areas have the

greatest risk of mudslides.

They identified Pacoima Canyon, Big Tujunga Canyon, the Arroyo Seco, the West Fork of the San Gabriel River and Devils Canyon as being 80% likely to experience flows of up to 100,000 cubic yards of debris, enough cover a football field with mud

and rock to about 60 feet deep.

“Some of the areas burned by the Station fire show the highest likelihood for big debris flows that I’ve ever seen,” said Susan Cannon, a USGS research geologist and one of the authors of the emergency assessment. Cannon has been studying

debris flows after fires for 11 years.“We don’t have the science to model where it will travel, but there’s a really good chance of a big debris flow happening within that drainage system," she added.

2009 Station Fire Burn Area (Solid Black Line)1933 Fire (LaCrescenta) Burn Area (Shaded)

< Pickens Canyon Fire, 1933 (7,000 Acres)

Station Fire, 2009 -160,000 + Acres In Some of the Highest- Producing Mud & Debris Flow Terrain in N. America

Trigger PointsToInitiate Evacuations:-Burn Areas-Anticipated Rainfall-Saturation Levels-Mud & Debris Flow Pre-Attack Plans For Individual Threatened Areas-Actual Mud & Debris Flows-Damage to Flood Control