index of manufactured exports methodology review 2012 ratio estimation methodology update...

Index of Manufactured Exports

Methodology Review 2012

• Ratio Estimation methodology update

• Chainlinking and benchmarking to GCS / I-O (and SNAP)

• SIC 2007

IME Data Sources

• ONS Monthly Business Survey (MBS)

– Sample size ~750

– turnover, export sales, employment, (also orders, some production volumes)

– Producer Prices (exc VAT, Excise Duty)

– Stratified sample by industry and employment

– Census of all companies >250 emp; sample in several lower employment bands

IME Data Sources

• Scottish MBS Top-Up Inquiry

– Sample size ~100

• Oil Refinery Volumes (DECC)

– Consistent with GDP

• A few direct collections from industry

• HMRC Scotch Whisky Values/Volumes

IME Methodology

• Estimate gross turnover & export sales from sample

– Ratio Estimation– Stratify by industry and employment

• Deflate using UK EPPI

• Seasonal Adjustment

• Aggregate to broad industry groups and total exports

real terms

Traditional IME Method

• Export sales are sub-total of turnover– Note that IME has become bi-product of IoP

Gross Exports =sample exports

sample turnoverx Gross Turnover

∑ I T

∑ I S

E T = ∑ E S x

Traditional IME Method

• But!....

• IDBR turnover highly associated with true turnover, but less well associated with proportion of sales to export

• Sample dependant bias– MBS census changed from 150 to 250– Falling sample size

New IME Method

• Global Connections Survey

– Export % estimates are made for industry groups…

– …and attributed to every company in the population

• Annual, surveyed or modelled, lagged…– Equivalent to IDBR turnover!

• Alignment between IME and GCS?

New IME Method• Match

Quarterly IDBR extract series (population)to

GCS ‘grossed exports’ file

iexport = iturnov x gcs export %

• Ratio estimates– Auxiliary variable is iexport instead of iturnov

∑ Iexp T

∑ Iexp S

E T = ∑ E S x

New Results

Chainlinking & Benchmarking• IME is laspeyres fixed weight volume index

– Price Index base year is 2005

• Self weighted by export values– Revisions due to SIC 2007, new ratio

estimation methodology, etc.– ‘GCS alignment’ edits and improved chemicals

data

TotalFood &

Tobacco Drink TotalMechanical Engineering

Electrical &

Instrument

Engineering

Transport Equipment

SIC 2003 D DADA 15.1-15.8

& DA 16

DA 15.9 DB, DC DD, DE DF, DG DJ

DK, DL, DM DK DL DM DH, DI, DN

2002 100 19.3 2.7 16.6 2.9 3.1 12.0 3.7 54.4 6.7 42.7 5.0 4.6

2003 100 21.0 3.1 18.0 2.8 3.5 13.6 3.8 50.6 7.8 36.7 6.1 4.7

2004 100 24.9 3.6 21.3 3.2 3.9 14.1 3.8 45.3 7.5 31.1 6.8 4.8

2005 100 26.7 3.7 23.0 2.9 3.9 13.8 3.6 44.5 7.7 30.2 6.6 4.6

2006 100 26.2 3.1 23.1 2.9 3.4 13.6 4.4 45.0 7.8 30.1 7.1 4.5

2007 100 26.0 2.8 23.2 2.7 4.0 12.8 4.8 45.7 8.4 28.9 8.4 4.0

2008 100 25.7 2.6 23.1 2.6 3.9 13.3 4.7 45.6 10.1 28.9 6.6 4.3

2009 100 28.4 2.3 26.1 2.3 3.8 14.2 3.9 42.8 10.2 26.7 5.9 4.4

2010 100 29.3 2.5 26.8 2.3 4.2 14.2 4.6 40.1 8.8 24.8 6.4 5.2

2011 100 30.3 2.6 27.7 2.7 3.8 14.6 4.6 38.8 8.6 23.7 6.6 5.3

Other Manufacturing

Total Manufacturing

Food, Drink & Tobacco Engineering & Allied Industries

Textiles, Clothing

& Leather

Wood, Pulp,

Paper, Publishing & Printing

Chemicals, Coke, Refined Petroleu

m Products

&

Metals & Metal

Products

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GCS Unadjusted IME

Annual Export Values

2002

2005

2010

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Food Drink Tex tiles, Leather

& Clothing

Chemicals,

Refined

Petroleum &

Pharmaceuticals

Metals & Metal

Products

Electrical &

Instrument

Engineering

Machinery n.e.c. Transport

Equipment

Other

Manufacturing

-1,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000


& Clothing

Chemicals,

Refined

Petroleum &

Pharmaceuticals

Metals & Metal

Products

Electrical &

Instrument

Engineering


Equipment

Other

Manufacturing

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


& Clothing

Chemicals,

Refined

Petroleum &

Pharmaceuticals

Metals & Metal

Products

Electrical &

Instrument

Engineering


Equipment

Other

Manufacturing

GCS Unadjusted IME

Export Values by Industry

Chainlinking & Benchmarking

• Laspeyres volume indices not ideal in years distant to weights– Relative price changes

• Should move to a Chained Volume Measure (CVM)

• Use weights from GCS (?)– Benchmark industry level series to provide

coherent results

IME volumes in 2005 prices

Raw IME Values GCS Values





2002 17 11 13 12 18 17 43 40 42

2005 23 17 19 14 22 23 30 20 22

2010 27 27 25 14 27 23 25 9 13

Drink Chemicals etc. Electrical & Instrument Engineering

High Level EPPI

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Food

Drink

Textiles, Leather & Clothing

Chemicals, Refined Petroleum &Pharmaceuticals

Metals & Metal Products

Electrical & Instrument Engineering

Machinery n.e.c.

Transport Equipment

Other Manufacturing


• Laspeyres volume indices not ideal in years distant to weights– Relative price changes

• Should move to a Chained Volume Measure (CVM)

• Use weights from GCS (?)– Benchmark industry level series to provide

coherent results







2002 17 11 13 12 18 17 43 40 42

2005 23 17 19 14 22 23 30 20 22

2010 27 27 25 14 27 23 25 9 13

Drink Chemicals etc. Electrical & Instrument Engineering

exports volume measures

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Raw IME - Laspeyres Raw IME CVM

GCS - laspeyres GCS - CVM

Current publication

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GCS benchamrked CVM Currently published IME


SIC 2007• Introduce updates and publish results on SIC 2007 industries

• Industrial groupings– Food & Drink

• Food• Drink

– Textiles, Leather & Clothing– Chemical, Refined Petroleum & Pharmaceutical Products– Metals & Metal Products– E & IE– Machinery n.e.c.– Transport Equipment– Other Manufacturing & Repair

• Drop Engineering & Allied Industries?– Or include Metals & Metal Products?

• 2009 = 100• Chained volume measures

– Current price values (in SNAP?)

index of manufactured exports methodology review 2012 ratio estimation methodology update...

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